mark: coming right up, the peso rallying. we are going to track the correlation with one of the world's most accuracy currency forecasters. this is bloomberg. ♪. ♪ vonnie: you are watching "bloomberg markets." i'm vonnie quinn in new york. mark: live from london, i am mark barton. let's get to one of the most telling charts of the day. take a look at this terminal. u.s.g the first presidential debate, the mexican peso called hillary clinton as the clear winner over donald trump. similare are seeing signals following the second debate, the pace of tending to fall on trump's triumphs, rising on the back of these setbacks. joining us from johannesburg on mosthone is the second currency forecasters by bloomberg. thank you very much, john, for joining us this afternoon. john: thank you, my pleasure. mark: we love watching this peso -dollar chart, a proxy for trump's fortunes. have we seen the lows for the peso. a couple of these ago, the peso hitting it lows against the dollar going back to 1971. is the worst over for the peso? joh

the peso trading the highest. when you look at european stocks, they are swinging and expending some of the losses. vixx you can see it 14.24. one thing i wanted to show you .as deutsche bank our biggest corporate story over the past three weeks here in europe. we understand there is still no deal with the boj -- with the doj. i wonder if that is why investors are nervous. this is also a chart going back to the mexican peso, the one we wanted to show you. the terminal chart charts the popularity and read, donald trump -- popularity in red, donald trump. you can see it is quite correlated since he has started being hit to head in the polls that's being head-to-head in the polls. you can see the correlation. no plans to exit easing. that was the message from governor kuroda. i spoke to him in an interview in washington, dc. >> traditionally, central bankers argue that interest rates can be controlled while long-term are not. in reality, after the lehman major central banks have been directly intervening in the long-

i want to segue to the mexican peso. ar on a day-to-day basis, the process of a trumpet presidency --the prospect of a trump presidency is moving around. let's say trump wins. is this a risk off for the peso, are traders divorcing it from the fundamentals? win: i think you hit the nail on the head. they are not so concerned with the day-to-day fluctuations, more like the speculative market. there are a lot of negative things about mexico. if you are looking for fundamental reasons, there are there. trump is noise around the real statement. record low capillary, domestic violence -- there is enough stuff there. because the peso is liquid and tradable, it is often used as a proxy for emerging markets. was when wepound last spoke. it was used as a proxy for emerging markets is a correlation. what about the situation in argentina? is it a political problem there as well? trump orfected as by duterte. win: this goes back to the political arena, but one generation before. -- electednd cursor on premises of freeing up the exchan

there was a reaction in the s&p and the peso. e dow jones was a little less stressed in terms of the markets. the s&p, the probability of a fed rate hike changed that sub 70%. >> here in the middle east, we are just under two hours away from the opening of the emirates markets. let's check on how the markets closed last week. day for the gulf region. markets, let'se get into the bloomberg first word. what have we got four start? independent ruling popularity survived in the country's election. the vote for the pirates jumped to 13.3% fell short of the polling. setting the nation of her broad coalition talks. >> spain has finally broken 10 months of political deadlock with the election of their prime minister. socialist deputies lifted their veto in parliament allowing him to return for a second term after winning a confidence vote. with unemployment in spain at its highest level since 2011, he is set to make his minority government on thursday. with a self-imposed deadline as to whether the bank of england's governor would stay in

manus: yes, and the mexican pesos. ng washington without reaching a settlement with the department of justice over a potential $14 billion penalty that is much debated on the size and the lender's ability to handle it. of course, there is another story. one of the top three shareholders. would they buy 25% of deutsche bank? that is the other story in the market for this morning straight. that and we do understand this man, john cryer, has not finished his situation with the year j, and samsung is said to have halted its production of following anote 7 recall over it catching fire. it is going to be a big week. we have got janet yellen speaking and the minutes. we have got. there is the dollar/mexican peso. one thing strikes me. as you said, the peso rallied as much as 2%. that is when the debate ticked off. we gave back some of those. the best-performing currency since the first debate three weeks ago, the dollar/mexican peso. on friday, it lost as much as 6% before it bounced back, regaining most of that lost ground, b

lead in a commanding lead in the primary race, the peso surged against the dollar.n polls showed he was gaining in several key states, you saw the surge again. after the first debate, where ,linton seem to take the win and trump stumbled on policy details, the valley of the peso against the dollar fell. all of this volatility is affecting immigrants. for details, let's bring in isabella cota. great story that euro here. let me ask, when you talk to people in the markets, do they believe this relationship between trump and the peso, is it a theory that people are buying into? that is a very good question. the reality is up until early september people were still skeptical that this was an actual correlation. there are a lot of factors that have been hitting the mexican peso but as of september it's been clear, it is trump driving the day so the most. in your story, you talk to an immigrant worker who is here in texas and he was sending money back to his family, horrified for obvious reasons about a trump victory in the election, but you point out, he is able to now s

today it is all about the peso. the new york peso tumbled by 0.8% on friday. this is the trump-ometer. that is what we're calling it a bloomberg. that lead hillary clinton had has dissipated. she's got 46%. trump has 45%. it is all about the swing states. democrats are less likely to vote for her by 5%. democrats who are more likely to vote for her has gone up by 13%. the republicans, that is what we're worried about. this is where we are going to see the nuances. it is going to be over the peso. we dropped four straight sessions in a row. that is the market story. nonfarm payrolls, super thursday in the united kingdom. it is going to be a currency week. angie: all right. hours,just under two we're going to have the emirates markets open, angie, in dubai and abu dhabi. let's check out how the markets finished trade yesterday. where going to get to tracy alloway. she's going to talk us through the double death cross. dhabi and qatar down by 0.2%. angie: and oil definitely fluctuating, around the $50 mark. could it go back to $40 again if we do not get a deal? cr

a clear impact on the mexican peso. tom: i would emphasize for the global audience, what we are doing in the u.s. is aggregating the polls. we really will not see that for a day or two. kevin cirilli does not need a cold --to know what need a poll to know what happened. he is torn has from st. louis. the end of the debate, they did not shake hands. but the body language on that debate, the end of the with the microphones off, is totally different than the first debate. how uncomfortable was it? kevin: this is one of the nastiest debate in american history. we will be talking about this for decades to come. i put this question to top aides in trump's political orbit. the word they used to describe the clinton campaign was "rattled." when i put this to the clinton surrogates in the spin room, they reiterated clinton's claims they feel donald trump is unfit to be president and his performance in st. louis was an illustration of that. tom: kevin, over the weekend, we saw a republican party shaken to its foundations. i put ou

the peso has been strong. >> we had a bit upstairs. course, this is the first thing you look at after the third and final presidential debate. you can see the dollar is a bit stronger versus the peso, but it's holding some gains, near a six-week high. it pretty much fluctuated around the debate time but stayed near the higher level as the trump odds have receded. >> the peso made a good bounce back in the last ten days or so clearly a lot of focus on it, fallout from that last night, it's on the front page of all the papers. yes, ivanka trim and mike pence said they will stand by the result, but trump is not one to just stand by, maybe she have done, but i'm not surprised he didn't. i'm surprised at the level of interest and fallout. >> i think on such a major stage, in front of millions of americans, he will not accept the vote, our democratic process which makes us the envy of the entire world is something to pause and think about. it puts the republicans themselves in a tough position to maintain control of congress. all sorts of fa

way over on the left, you can when dollar-peso is strengthening. look at the perception that the peso moves on trump, it fora pretty bad weekend trump. it was one of the best days for the peso in a year. >> remember the jobs report? there was no sex appeal, so nobody reported on it. growth clearly deteriorated from the 200,000 plus we saw in the last year. very quickly, we will get that up. here we go. maybe. there we go. get this uphis and right. there we go. average, month moving six month moving average, my bed because i am doing the show for the first time in a long time. we see that job growth has come down. 192 and 169, and then they're red area there, that is the bege of jobs that need to recorded to absorb people into the workforce, people graduating and immigrants coming in. as long as those two lines are above the red area, unemployment --unlikely to fall, and that on a claimant is likely to fall, and that keeps the fed on track to raise interest rates. even though we have ratcheted down a little bit, the fed is confident we can maintain

the mexican peso falling sharply spikin 10%. sted its first in a year and exxon faces a reduction in reserves all of that is on the back burner right now as hillary clinton and james comey of the fbi take center stage here. has been a swift reaction, it been fascinating because when we first saw stocks take a sharp leg lower, is this because of the political headlines? it became clear quickly after talking to traders about what was going on. the likelihood of a clinton presidency was increasingly being priced into the market. as we heard from peter cecchini a moment ago, a trump would be a wildcard and would be negative for stocks. down&p 500 and the nasdaq -- the s&p 500, the intraday chart showing that tiny bounce off the bottom, but off by 10 point five points -- 10.5 points. none of us knows what this news means. the investigation has been reopened. how long will it take? what will be the outcome? could it be the same as the outcome of the earlier investigation? this is a tried-and-true trope of the market. investors do not l

and a jump, or a drop in the peso. a jump in the dollar versus the peso. er: alex wayne is with bloomberg in washington. we were just reading some headlines about the device associated with this latest batch of e-mails. i guess the fbi wants to look at them. can you give us some insight on where the story is going? >> "the new york times" reported that these new e-mails were discovered during the course of the investigation and to anthony weser's -- weiner's --. an incidentalwas thing. they weren't seeking out new clinton e-mails. earliern't part of the investigation, this is something separate and they stumbled upon it. >> it is so unclear what is going on here. he would be really helpful if maybe the fbi would actually tell us something, explain what the heck they are up to. comey issued this letter according to "newsweek." he testified on this case to congress a couple months ago and under justice department rules, he had two update congress on any developments in the investigation because of that prior testimony. said was,hen he although the fbi cannot

that being the case, every time he rises in the polls, the mexican peso falls. e stumbles in the polls, the mexican peso gains a little. 19 and 33 today so beloved of strengthening for the peso but it almost reached 20 and it has not been below 19 much in the last couple of months. postelection? matt: if you go on back to 1939 which is probably when our data was just beginning to be whenled, it shows that republicans win, there is an immediate gain in the market. when democrats win, it takes a little bit longer, and it is a little bit longer-lasting. the reality is in election years , regardless of who is running, regardless of which party, democrat or republican, election years are generally good for the stock market. vonnie: always cheering for good news. is the bloomberg editor in chief , and you would not know it by looking at the stock market today but the dow is down by a quarter of a percent and the s&p is down as well. nejra: let's take a look at the european markets just before the close half an hour away. this is bloomberg. ♪ a 11 :00 in new york, floor

and the peso is at a one-month high. diminished prospects perhaps that donald trump will win the presidency has helped the peso recover some of its losses over the last 24 hours. quickly, oil is under pressure as well. and that is hurting some of the european stocks in early action. wti just below $50 a barrel. 49.56. >>> great stuff, sara. still to come, the morning's top stories including highlights from last night's presidential debate. don't go anywhere, you're watching "worldwide exchange" on cnbc. all the networks are great now. we're talking within a 1% difference in reliability of each other. and, sprint saves you 50% on most current national carrier rates. save money on your phone bill, invest it in your small business. wouldn't you love more customers? i would definitely love some new customers. sprint will help you add customers and cut your costs. switch your business to sprint and save 50% on most current verizon, at&t and t-mobile rates. don't let a 1% difference cost you twice as much. whoooo! for people wi

let us turn to the peso for a guide as to how that debate turned out. we can see clearly, and i have and itthe first debate was a move up for the mexican peso. donald trump did not do well. maybe not quite as substantial as a first one but nevertheless you have to remember that we have had a very difficult week for the donald trump campaign as a result of which we have already priced in that move. let us bring in john hardy. he joins us from denmark. what did you make of the debate in the market reaction? john: the market reaction has the take away that donald trump's campaign is struggling. not just with the mexican peso but also the canadian dollar is gapping a bit stronger. it is too early to draw conclusions about the campaign. if we take this as a brexit it turned out to be a leave. i think there is a similar risk. and the outcome is closer than the polls and the press are making it out to be. sense on give us a whether we should be seeing such a correlation between the mexican peso and donald trump's rises and falls. we have a great chart showing h

scarlet: i need to ask about the colombian peso. eferendum result, people are doubting the government's ability to get anything done, including tax reform. win: they are hoping to pass in october and november. sides havews is both made noise, they want to keep this peace process going. my read is it was rejected because half the population felt it was too lenient on the rebels. we are going to make this worse on you. the rebels want this, but it will be very hard to do. is oil isews rebounding, so it is really an oil story in columbia. the fundamentals are not bad. -- in colombia. china was emerging, you could talk about these problems. now the tide goes out, and you have a problem in turkey, south africa, philippines, down the list. it is a challenging time. i have been telling clients, just differentiate. we cannot tell which are good and bad stories. joining us now is joe weisenthal, cohost of "would you miss?" let's talk not about the peso, but the story of the day today, which is really the move in rates, at least one of the mai

i want to look now at the mexican peso. ave the vix, the studies predict a decline in the peso, and i think that's pretty much what you got and i'm most interested in the vix because i think one -- there is the peso right there declining in value against the dollar in a sharp way. if you have the vix, how good are they in the back there? you can see the volatility goes up. but that tells you -- what that tells you guys is all of a sudden, the cost of hedging a trump victory has just gotten more expensive, the time to do this was two nights ago at the dinner a was at when again all of the polls were pointing toward the clinton victory. what i want to tell you is the study i've been talking about, it is an event study that looks at how the markets reacted to the perceived victory by hillary clinton in the first debate and then how the markets reacted to the release of the tape on october 5th. there is that chart there. you can see the chance of a clinton victory tracking the rise in the s&p that very evening. in a minute by mi

the u.s. dollar, mexican peso trade track the election when hillary is more likely to win, the peso goes up. what we saw in the currency markets yesterday was 1% move peso weakening, a move toward donald trump. to give scale, half the size of the move during the first debate when hillary really won the first debate, the peso strengthened by 2%. what that has the market telling me is this makes things better for donald trump, increased the odds he will win but it's not a huge c change. clinton was favored before the first debate, favored after it. that move reflected there was an improvement for her. somewhat of an worsening half the size after the first debate. >> it's interesting to bring in the peso. nina, does this have the potential to upend hillary clinton given her significant lead in the battlegrounds? >> france cess, breaking news, maybe and maybe not. this is just -- and i agree with josh and i don't even drink but this election cycle has been one for the age, let me tell you. you know what? people who are fiercely and strongly supportive of secretary clinton will vote for her. this

the world. this is a mexican peso climbing as much as 0.4. this is the popularity of donald trump. has been rising a touch because the peso has been sensitive to the republican candidate's fortune because he has proposed ending trade deals with mexico. debate the trump currency we need to watch for. michael m.: the peso may have sealed the election, but what about down ballot? megan murphy is in las vegas and has been covering the aftermath of the debate. the general consensus is donald trump it a bit better than he has in the past, but not well enough to save his own campaign. did you do well enough to say republican's down ballot in the majority in the senate and the house? megan: that is a question that investors are most looking at. it is not so much who will win the presidential election, but when they look down ballot, they coulds if hillary clinton tell the house. we look for to this trajectory. it is a very different message on how she will be able to yourn if she does win if have a sin in your favor or a house in your favor. that is why people are focused on this. a split s

the peso goes down, donald wins. sue is, the market is looking for transparency and consistent -- consistency in logic and we know there is not , any. i think for sure, disruption in every form is frightening to everyone in the establishment, including big business. big business cannot support these outlandish positions for the reasons you are saying, a very good argument for most people, saying there is something wrong in the consistency of the man delivering the message. i don't think that. i think the opposite. charlie: instead of there being something wrong with the consistency of the man delivering it? tom: the frustrating thing to me is, i know the man. the man is perfectly fit. the dialogue we have been in is confusing. at this point, to me, if i were advising him, if he actually listen to me, -- charlie: he doesn't listen to anybody. but he firmlys believes the track he is on is the correct track. to pivot and get to where he could do it, he could sit with you, the best thing would be for him to sit with you f

let's check in on the markets. mexican peso after the last of the u.s.tial debate. >> let's have a look at the chart. it is unchanged at the moment but has risen to a six week high after that third presidential debate, outperforming all its major peers. you can see it weaken after donald trump gained traction in polls and has been steadily strengthening after the first and second debate and now after the third. september 26.ce moving on to volatility, we have a great chart looking at dollar volatility. this is three-month implied volatility. this is a measure of projected yield fluctuations over the next 90 days. this gauge is approaching its .owest in almost two years it's also below the one year average. ahead of all the uncertainty about the u.s. election and potential fed rate rises before the end of the year. it could be negative for the bond market because they will plan a large economic stimulus package and that means higher inflation. the 10 year yield is unchanged today. and's looking at treasuries the mexican peso. let's look at the asian marke

we'll look at the mexican peso that made strong gains against the u.s. dollar reaching a one-month high signaling markets are lessening the odds of a donald trump victory. meantime, u.s. futures were pretty much unchanged. that doesn't tell you a lot because last time clinton was seen winning the first debate, the u.s. features or futures saw a big rally. didn't happen this time around. >> what do you guys think? we would love to hear from you. neutrally, i generally don't care who wins on either side. i think there's a case to be said for, you shouldn't maybe be too far right or too far left. but if everybody can be in the middle and it works out for the greater good of everyone out there, maybe you disagree. e-mail the show, you can find us on twitter @streetsigns. >> keep the tweets coming. @carolineroth. >> or @louisabojesen. we're talking within a 1% difrence in reliability of each other. and, sprint saves you 50% on most current national carrier rates. save money on your phone bill, invest it in your small business. wouldn't you lov more customers?

if you look at the markets and what is reacting to trump, it is the peso. have the real clear politics average of how trump's chances are. it has been discussed a lot, the strength of the peso and the trump are trading inversely, a real divergence here. one of us talked about acid you could use to trade for the presidency is something i want to touch on. , this ishis blue line an etf tracking the mexican equity exchange. this is also short interest. if you want to make a bearish bet, you want to put shorts on this. here, butit tracking check at what happened this past month. as trump's chances of winning has increased, and many people are saying, as trump would say, would negatively impact the mexican economy, this is the highest this equity has been since 2008. this is about 49% of shares outstanding being shorted. definitely something to keep an eye on. nejra: thanks both. great charts. on this occasion, i'm going to have to go with trump and dani burger. i did not even though the trunk etf existed. trump etf existed. vonnie: if people keep on calling it t

ellen: right, and that means value of the peso has dropped against the dollar.with u.s. dollars sent to mexico. what is happening is that is good for immigrants sending money home. it has allowed people in mexico to take care of their needs better, to take care of their houses better. it is sort of a weird byproduct of the trump candidacy. he is helping the folks in mexico. not just the folks in mexico, but illegal immigrants. i talked to one who is able to send, you know, get more money to his family because of it. maybe people don't realize it is because of trump, but they are aware and are taking advantage of the conversion rates. carol: we love watching the peso effect, the mexican economy is not great, so this is helping them out. ellen: it is and i'm sure that is not what he intended. carol: you look at what seattle is looking to do, safe places for heroin addiction. ellen: it has been tried in canada, and elsewhere -- but not in the u.s. the idea is to avoid overdoses and prevent deaths. that are considering setting up centers allowing addicts to shoot up

the mexican peso will fluctuate during the debate. he said that he did not expect to sign a deal with the cartel this week. they will try to hammer out the details before next month. has halted production, after leading exchanges of the device. recall happened over the overheating. there are new safety concerns. it is 12:30. >> it is 7:30. it is good to see you here thewe are focusing in on and the timing of the targets. we will continue to talk about brexit. there was further weakness today and we will put this to theresa may, who has had a charm offensive around europe and is trying to build on the standing if they minister and theprepared to sacrifice to individual markets. that therer said were talks and they are trying alliances on the said that thed european commission vice president in washington will be able to read the smoke signals and we know that will come from some time. deutsche inc. story. do we know anything new? >> there was a story about the the departmentnd of justice understands the negotiations and they are still

there is the dow versus the peso moving in opposite directions. that is telling too. fresh uncertainty just in the last couple hours. look at vix. obviously the volatility index. today, six, i'm sorry about 7.6, 7% move up for the week. tremendous volatility in markets. 24% move. back to you. david: thank you, lori. phil, the market going down but gold spiking. return to safety or at least perceived safety of gold today. it ended the day near four-week high. >> it really did, dave. everything that happened after the report broke affected all commodities. lori mentioned the mexican peso. the stock market, even oil sold off when the headline came out. so every commodity in some way was affected. you know, remember that brookings institute report about what would happen if donald trump would become president almost came true but very small way. could be a lot more or a lot less than they were anticipating but definitely it had an impact. oil unlike some markets didn't bounce back, they didn't bounce back because of reports coming out opec meeting in vienna, apparently, ir

the peso has fallen. low in september on the momentum of donald trump as he appeared to gain. and then after all three debates the peso has actually gained. of course, guys, the feeling here is that a trump presidency would be hurtful for the mexican economy. trump has threatened to rip up nafta, renegotiate it, mexico has been a major beneficiary. so we watch this carefully as we try to figure out what the market is pricing in. real clear politics still has clinton up by more than three points. and betting odds at least according to that site still remain at something like 80/20, 80% chance of hillary clinton. the peso has gotten a lot of relief over the last few weeks on this idea. but it did take a step back on friday. so we're watching it carefully. >> 538 has the same chances that trump wins as the cubs win the world series. >> oh, that's funny. >> yes. identical odds from 538 on those two things happening. meanwhile, paypal's co-founder and donald trump supporter peter thiel taking the stage at the

so did the mexican peso. wall street doesn't like the unexpected. this was unexpected.already factored in, i think it's safe to say, hillary clinton victory, whether they liked it or not. that's what they were planning on, this they didn't see happening. did they react too quickly? gary? >> the market's been very quiet for 37 days. we have seven trading days left waiting for the election supposedly a certainty for clinton and then everything changes in a nanosecond. that's howl you get the reaction from certainty to uncertainty and then see the dow dump 130 do 150-points before you can say boo. the other part of the equation is the easy my equation. you have one candidate that will keep yellen, keep the easy money and another one that said they were fire janet yellen and get away from the ease use money and markets have been addicted to it so i think that's of consequence today and you saw what happened very quickly. >> it's not a matter of red or blue. what gary is saying, it's green. sometimes wall street is used to things a certain way and doesn't like change. >> i t

goldman has increased bullish bets on the peso. the mexican peso in blue, gold and white. eeing gold a little stronger, the mexican peso near a two-week low, and this is an indicator of expectations from the u.s. election, where you are seeing the concern. manus: thank you very much. the spanish bond markets are going to be in focus as mariano rajoy gains a second term as prime minister ending a 10 month political impasse. this was saturday night after socialist lawmakers abstained, let's speak to our bureau chief in the dreaded. thanks for joining us. how has he managed to pull this off? it's all about abstention and technicality, isn't it? >> well, yes. i think he pulled it off because he played a very effective waiting game. there were elections in spain, in december, which reduced the parliament. and he hung in there, watching very closely the internal divisions within his adversaries . the socialist party looks like a broken force now. they were really forced to accept an abstention to allow his government where their support may have fallen even further. it was really

the mexican peso down at the bottom, a little bit stronger. a weaker peso over the last number of days as mr. trump has gotten a little bit of altitude, eight days to the election. francine lacqua in london. diane tom keene in new york. . busy week -- i am tom keene in new york. a busy week. s,ere are still two americaa right? peter: absolutely. the manufacturing sector has become more productive, and people are losing their jobs there. so, yes, there are two views about what is going on in the economy. clear that some of these things are not just cyclical. they are not just about this particular downturn. tom: i look at the backdrop of this week, and to me it is extraordinary. the great distortion, peter hooper, is negative interest rates. bring up this chart, which we did, from marketing -- from marvin good friend. willem buiter is front and center on this. peter hooper is front and center on phil about her, steven wieting -- on willem buiter, steven wieting's boss. academics are suggesting negative rates under duress would be -3%, down in th

. >> we have talked about the peso has been moving. ese charts are the real clear politics polling average. they kind of move adversely to each other but i'm tired of the peso. at the top, this blue line, i have the u.s. etf for the mexican equity market. iss short interest average two weeks so it looks smooth. look over here. the donald trump odds have lifted since he won the primary. this has skyrocketed and it's right here, this is almost 50% of the etf being short. it's highs so around here, we had the debate. this will actually start to drop off shortly once the two-week average starts to update. if you want to know how donald trump's odds are, you can look at market data. instead of political polls. david: that's pretty cool. it gets us away from the pay so. that's a good move. at inflationking because the dollar is moving above the 200 day moving average and inflation is starting to come in higher in the chart still -- tells the story. line's consumer prices year on year and both of them have started to move relatively higher. pa

the peso rallied. >> the peso is also taking a little bit of a move higher on the news of the ryan conference call. >> right. we had the rally last night. it's taking movement. i was on a conference call with one of the european hedge funds we're investing with today giving me the third quarter update, and they said, look, if trump wins, we could have a brexit type move. we're looking for an 8% to 10% correction if trump wins. could rally back, but that's what people are looking for. the inverse, of course, is that right now with the market saying, okay, hillary is looking better. the polls are showing what they're showing. there's more stability. there's more comfort in the outcome. we could grind up more and more. i don't think what carl icahn said is what undecided voters are looking for in terms of comfort with trump or what paulson says or anybody. that's not what's going on. that die has already been cast. people will say, okay, we'll go with you. it's not new voters. >> let me get back to what the market -- what we're watching today. >> i would rather talk. >> whether you think that we

. >> one other factor that could help constellation is the decline in the mexican peso. have a lot of costs over the border. >> constellation has whiskey going for you, the peso going for you. >> mexican beers are a huge part of the revenue. >> never too early for wine and alcoholic video covering a story. early in the morning, but nice to see. >>> top trending stories, the gop releasing a spin on the vp debate before mike pence and tim kaine even hit the stage. a series of articles were posted on the republican national committee's website an hour before the debate began declaring pence the clear winner. the articles were taken down quickly. gop, how does "game of thrones" end? that one coming -- that was funny. not only did they say he won, which you know the party would spin that way, but they gave a five-point plan on he won on the economy. he won on insulting hillary. >> all sorts of early posts from papers as well. >> in case there was doubt that the parties spin these things. >> of course. they have spin doctors, highly paid spin doctors. donald trump also tweetin

the peso. rket is looking for consistency and logic, and we know there is not any. , disruption ine every form is frightening to everyone in the establishment, including these -- big business. they cannot support these positions- outlandish for the reasons you are saying, there's something wrong in the consistency. instead of there being something wrong with the consistency of the man delivering it? the dialogue we've been and is very confusing. at this point, if i was advising him, it would be -- charlie: he doesn't listen to anybody, that is the point. guest: he listens, but he believes the track he is on is correct. he could come and sit with you for an hour and a half and let you drill on him on real substantive issues, i promise you would be more impressed you think. charlie: well happen in here tomorrow. guest: i will try. charlie: thanks for being here. ♪ ♪ ruth bader ginsburg is an associate justice of the united states supreme court. she was nominated by bill clinton in 1993. she had be

>> the peso had been the world's actively traded currency when china surpassed it, and mexico futurestime, of course, is when mexico is open and there's liquidity and a lot of people trade it. >> if i had to look for currency moves, i would think it has a lot more to do with every economic indicator that comes out and what the fed is going to do, do you think the dollar had its round if you think the fed does hike in a couple meetings? >> the fed, if they do not have rate hikes, i think this is why the euro is trading as low as it s. and i think the fed hike, the fed could disappoint the market once again and the dollar could pay the price for that. >> there's a bunch of studies about the affects on the markets of a trump presidency, and i don't -- i think some of the event last friday showed they were true and all the follow-up shows they are not true. what do you expect to happen to the mexican peso and other emerging market currencies that may be affected by a different trump yield if there's a trump trade deal if there's a trump presidency? >> i have been telling our clients it's

the mexican peso, two day chart, back above 19 the currency following this poll suggesting closer than morning, mexican peso. 19 is your current level. weakness there. guys. yvonne: thank you. let's stick with dbs, ready to buy anz's retail and wealth businesses are 110 million singapore dollars above book value. trying to easenz concerns for investors, saying asia is still part of its core strategy. what is the latest? haslinda: you said it, dbs agreed to pay 110 million singapore dollars above book. it includes a 40% stake in , andesia, 20% of malaysia 20% of shanghai world commercial. ural commercial. earnings, one year after completion, down progressively from the second quarter of next year. that most oftold the people in the affected units will join dbs. for dbs, it is an expansion mode. a recent report says it is now the fifth largest bank. the momentum helped by its acquisition and 2014. is selling off operations that have dragged down its return on equity. its overseas operations, especially asia, have consumed a third of the banks capital, but has accounted for only a fifth o

the mexican peso is another one we are keeping an ion today. less and less likely that donald trump will reach victory. the odds of a hillary clinton at 80% now. the mexican peso feeling more positive. one of the major stories today, russia joining the party. branch is above $53 a barrel. they friday jobs report not hurting. the nasdaq up .8%. let's take a look at the nasdaq in more detail. abigail doolittle is in manhattan. >> we are looking at a nice rally for the nasdaq. trading at an all-time intraday high. nasdaq is close to its record high. nice turnaround here. as for what is boosting the -- petere most today stabler at wells fargo is saying both of these internet giants are on pace to beat or made estimates for the third quarter. he believed they are going to continue to gain share from non-tv media. we have facebook up 24%. all year this has been the top gainer. we have amazon climbing ahead of facebook. it will be interesting to see whether that dynamic holds once this company reports their quarters. been a littlehas bit more choppy.

the mexican peso is stronger today. are implying that -- >> i think we look at the long-term look at the peso. it is much weaker. >> that's why i'm saying there is no declared winner from last night. it's completely hard to do it. i think the way to think about it in market terms is trump beat expectations after guidance and analyst estimates were massively lower. >> when you said if both houses of congress went, there were a couple sectors, like you heard. i would add the private sector. >> first of all -- >> you don't need to pick biotech or energy. >> come on, the house is a long way from tipping. >> the hope springs eternal, though. >> i think that's why the market just sits back and they don't actually want to rush to price in, except where you have some kind of sense of the probabilities that are turning in one direction. >> so what about people who are trying to play currencies? these are multi-trillion dollar extremely liquid markets that have shown us this year that they can turn on a dime. the people say, i'm g

the rejection of the peace plan was marked as rebels led to a selloff in colombian ons and the peso. lout from the failed coup in turkey in july. almost 13,000 police officers have been suspended as part of an investigation into those suspected of backing of the muslim cleric. turkey blames him for inciting the coup. the european union is appealing to greece to meet requirements next week. be released tod help their economy. finance ministers meet and luxembourg monday to talk about the milestone. the nobel prize for physics goes to three british-born scientist who are now at american universities and received the prize for reviewing exotic matter like superconductors which conduct electricity with no loss to resistance. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ahead, how was ireland attracting business and jobs as the u.k. prepares for brexit and we will hear from owen murphy. this is bloomberg. ♪ vonnie: you are watching bloomberg. ra: this is your global business report. the south african finance

of a sudden, investors south of the border and concluding this better for donald trump, worse for the pesoe dow industrials again reflection of investors sentiment, what is known, versus what is not known, selling on the unknown, what seemed like certain bet is now not so certain. with 11 days to go, everyone, and i mean everyone is at a loss. trish regan. to you. >> wow. quite a bit of news to get to right now. thank you so much, neil. the fbi doing what many believed they just couldn't do. they're reopening the investigation into hillary clinton's private email server. i am trish regan. welcome, everyone to the intelligence report. -- "the intelligence report." donald trump up in manchester, new hampshire, addressing bombshell news, moments ago. watch him here. >> the fbi has just sent a letter to congress informing them, that they have discovered new emails pertaining to

the peso falling by the most in a month.al commodity index switches down around the lowest point in the week here in your five-day gnp on bloomberg. .own about 2% some weaknesses in the second day of decline, so not a great week. secondly, looking at specific oil figures here. both down. i am going to talk about brent oil later. they are down almost 2.10, 170 basis points each. not forming on, but corn. we are looking at one, which is actually, this is a six month figure, so we are down. september, up 17%. part of that is coming from the idea there is going to be significant demand for ethanol, so a pretty good day for corn. scarlet: those are today's market minute. you can find the charts using the function at the bottom of your screen. at lengtham looking of inflation revising and this is what oliver was alluding to as well. matt: this is a 10 year breakeven late and you can see it has been shooting up since the end of june. in fact, even after i made this chart this morning, it has come up higher. right now, we are lookin

the biggest indicator has been the peso-dollar relationship. : of course, the true proxy for a trump presidency. diane: anytime we see anything where he gets closer in the --ls we see the peso pressure on the peso is substantial. , wecine: we do not know have contradictory messages from hillary clinton on how to deal with the banks. how do we know whether she becomes much more centrist? diane: this is from all of my friends that are political handicappers, the poll she is going to have to face is on the left wing of her party. the republican party, the left the democratic party is also very influential. we have seen the rise of bernie sanders and elizabeth warren gained traction. they are not into playing with kids gloves on the banks. these are also very anti-free-trade kind of people. they want some similar things that the trump and the right wings want as well. nationalism and closing down of borders, that is being underestimated. i think there is going to be a lot of tensions within the democratic party. one political handicapper who is very

in the weird way, the best been the change rate with the mexican peso and american dollar. >> that's what i always say. i have been saying that. >> it is a good point. >> in the first debate, hillary clinton did great and the peso rose 2% over the dollar. when this news broke, there was a move half as large in the other direction. the markets are telling us this matters. on the other hand, hillary clinton was favored to win before the first debate. still favored after the first that is not the market saying this is a total game changer and trump will win. this is a negative story for her. if i am her, i want to get back to talking about donald trump groping women. >> this is a lifeline for the trump campaign? >> it is, but they needed a life boat. the election when it has been about hillary clinton and has hurt hillary clinton. when it has been about donald trump, it has hurt donald trump. here. but donald trump loves taking that bait. i would not doubt if we are back to donald trump all the time. >> sara, josh, ari, great conversation. >> leave it to the guys from business insider to

the mexican peso is stronger into the debate tomorrow.come down 18.7, certainly with mrs. clinton doing better in the polls. the renminbi is weaker over the 6.74.ew days, just now joining us, associated with real estate but really more than anything associated with an entrepreneurial spirit in one barbara corcoran, always delivering a certain sharp approval of what small business does. tell us about your new venture right now, the seal of approval. barbara: you said it very well. i love small business and i care about small business and the development of seeing them get ahead. i have teamed up with on deck, the largest lender to small businesses in america, to have a special contest. it is simply this -- you tell us what you use a $10,000 prize for to push her business ahead, and you get the $10,000 and a personal consultation with me. the second part is the best part. tom: the personal consultation i will go with. what is the biggest mistake undercapitalized entrepreneurs do? spend the money on the wrong things come on things that get t

since 1945 to today -- vonnie: why does the peso weakened every time -- >> you know that markets peersimes perception is greater than -- the press tries to prop up the idea of terrace and protectionism and him blocking free trade. if you read what he has said and trump.com, he is for free trade but he wants to even up the playing field for the american people. done with good intentions to help the emerging markets. >> him want to ask you about hedge funds. are you getting more of a , still kind of hide. >> easily explained by the depression -- trying to work. guys like the hedge fund the sixth ofting issue a. that will be a huge mistake. that is not the right role of government. to shy away from products very good long-term. renaissance in the hedge fund space. vonnie: we have to leave it there. >> i am able on the hedge fund space. of hopping over the rabbit hole. how entrepreneurs turn failure into success. thank you. man, we will talk to a incoming chief executive -- this is bloomberg. ♪ vonnie: you are watching bloomberg. i am vonnie quinn. mark: here's what we're watching today. t

strength in the canadian dollar and mexican peso versus u.s. dollar. cheryl: taking a look at it, slightly lower. 1.85%. latest read on the yield. lauren: elon musk has a new vision for harnessing the sun to power your home. his companies tesla and solar city have developed glass tiles that look like roof shingles to preplace conventional solar panels. the goal is to make the solar roofs more attractive and also last longer, it's part of plan to merge solar city with company tesla, the proposal worth $2.5 billion, shareholders are expected to vote on the deal november 17th. cheryl: con troughers vi you the deal to. health care one of the stocks to watch this morning. drug-maker to pose lower renew. the stock has had a rough year as you can see on the screen there. we are also going to hear from lowe's and lumber liquidators expected a narrow loss. you can see a volatile year for lumber liquidators, they are just now recovering from that scandal. lauren: take a look at the headlines in today's edition of wall street journal. sources say the new entity wo

here is a strong clinton scene within the mexican peso. just assume that the mexico peso not be linked. >> it's the idea of proxy trading. all the conversation is very much focused on what happens. there's a little bit of stabilization. i get the sense that we are in -- it's veryso much a similar fashion to the eu referendum, where the market will trade political news up until the referendum, where it up until the u.s. election, shall i say, and then focus on fundamentals. guy: that's exactly what i am hearing as well. you get the election results, let's see what hillary clinton wants, then you get into a picture where they are like, ok, so let's recalibrate and think about what she would need. >> absolutely. the appointment of her treasury secretary would be very important. yellen will be important. look beyond the pricing of the risk premium. the day after the eu referendum, the u.n. chose to leave the eu. tom: we will continue. two weekends to go until the first tuesday of november. our special coverage throughout all november 7 and into

we are showing you the strength and gains of the peso. e also bullish on mexican equities, right? >> yes. we are overweight with the global equity club. forre of course, scrambling you know, technical opportunities because as long as the dollar does not depreciate too strongly, we cd see destabilization. the underperforming part of that has to do with the presidency. therefore, we took this call on mexican equities. this is the same thing we have done with u.k. equities. even if you have a global markets correction, the pound could go that much lower. you could have locally positive returns. we are looking for a defensive plays within a bearish stance, and neck the gulf it's that perfectly. luciano jannelli, it is always a pleasure. new york bound, next. we speak to the chief investment officer of an ejection and then egyptianopposite of an -- officer of an egyptian investment bank. this is bloomberg. ♪ yousef: welcome back. you are watching bloomberg. angie: i'm angie lau in hong kong. let's check the latest bloomberg headlines. the knott