slok are thrilled torsten can join us. is it different being an economist for a massive global bank versus being an economist for asset managers? torsten: the data and the analysis is identical. trying to think about what markets are doing and where they are going. the analysis ends up being 100% the same. in that sense the job we all have of trying to think about where is the economy going and where financial markets going is the same for all of us. lisa: you are at a cross-section at an interesting we have robert kaplan coming out saying he could expect a contraction in q4 because of the worsening pandemic, and then jim polson who just said he expects a 5% expansion in q4. a bullish attitude and markets versus the bearishness of economists. where you come out in this divide that seems to be growing? torsten: what is important to watch as the high-frequency data. yesterday, as you talk about yesterday -- more people are becoming unemployed. there is something going on in the economic data. the nightmare scenario for marke

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torsten slok came up with this chart on how small business plays into jobs numbers.a look at adp. it shows small businesses remain to million jobs below where they were in february, and the increase in small business employment in october was only 115,000. the bottom line is there is still anemic and we growth in this very important subsector of the job economy. joining us now is marty mucci, ceo of paychex, the second largest payroll processing company in the country. it is easy to get excited about a headline number, but what is the reality for small businesses right now? martin: i think we have seen a continued moderation. it was down a little bit on october, the drop growth. that continued. it is still growing, but there is moderation. i think a second stimulus has been very important, and would be very important for small businesses. they need more flex ability. they need more cash right now. the first stimulus has pretty much run out for most of these small businesses. while they are doing ok, they that-- they do need through this season. on a positive note, we