u.s. economy are seen as less immediate than elsewhere in the world. feldstein points to the need for serious reform of u.s. medicare and social security and to revamp the tax system in order to break out of the 2% group doldrums. but that 2% looks impressive compared to other developed economies. >> i think we're on pace to enter this economy with still a very good job market and continued job gains. it may be a yawn in terms of one more year of 2%, 2 1/4% growth, but i think that's actually quite good, we're adding a lot of jobs, we're getting unemployment even lower. >> reporter: 2016 will be strong enough for the federal reserve to raise interest rates three to five times this year. but that forecast depends in part on whether foreign troubles wash up on america's shores. the conclusion from today's market trade is the u.s. economy can't go it alone. for "nightly business report" i'm steve liesman in san francisco. >>> u.s. manufacturers continue to feel the heat. activity in that sector contracted at the fastest pace in more than six years in decem

u.s. economy -- because we do think the u.s. economy is the main driver of global growth -- what percent of u.s. exports go to china? ..7% what about bank exposure? if people are worried about a .epeat of mortgage exposure bank exposure to china is about 0.8 percent. in general, when we look at the impact of china and the chinese it does not warrant the kind of reaction we have seen year to date or in august. betty: you say this is predicated on a believe that china is not going to crash land, right? that they will be able to make a slower but relatively high

u.s. economy? the forecast for growth outside the u.s., i would call sluggish.hey will improve a little bit in 2016, that it is very uneven. in a country like that as well, brazil, russia that are exposed to commodities are actually in recession. that is going to continue in 2016. india is a bright spot. china is dealing with a number of issues that are not typical -- cyclical. they will take years to deal with. overleveraged, overcapacity and an aging population. it will take many years, so i think the u.s. and the world is going to have to get used to lower rates of chinese growth and i think the world is adjusting. it has implications for commodity prices and it will have some implications for u.s. gdp. companiese world and and the markets are trying to digest all of that. >> robert kaplan was very well known at goldman sachs and harvard, but as a policy maker, they don't know where you are coming rob. would you characterize yourself as a hawk or a dove? >> probably as a centrist. what i mean is time quite open -- i quite open -- i am quite open to looking at

u.s. economy can produce -- the declines in china, it's amazing the u.s. an produce these numbers. if you -- even if it is 200,000, the u.s. economy scarlet: is still doing pretty well. you have this global turmoil at the start of the year. for happens for the outlook january, february, march, given what we saw last year with the august turmoil? >> that's why we try to list the risks we worry about. the most important continues to be the dollar appreciation, , the costead widening of capital for companies has gone up. that means hiring could be held back a little bit. weakand europe with growth, so also a reason to expect slowing. we still saw decent numbers on payrolls. clear that the chinese worries and the selloff and the some market creating uncertainty. overall, the u.s. economy seems to be in good shape. joe: let's talk about head winds. economist consensus tomorrow is a 2.8% increase in hourly earnings. sense 2009.the best medium-term prognosis for wages? do you? think we will get above 3%? is that so many people left the labor force. are these peopl

u.s. economy than the u.s. economy means for the rest of the world. but when it comes to financial markets the financial market lynch ands are greater. the u.s. financial market sensitivity to external events. >> worries about china and oil prices can and probably should bring down u.s. stock prices and they have. but it's not entirely clear that should be in a markdown in u.s. growth or worries about recession. since the great recession, these are some of the best times for the u.s. consumer. for "nightly business report," i'm steve liesman. >>> as the obama era comes to an end, there may if reasons to cheer the u.s. economy, after all, it is by most measures in a better place now than it was when the president took office. just how much better or whether it's better at all often depends on one's politics. john harwood joins us from washington. if you listen to the candidates on the right, you would think the economy was in horrible or trump's favorite word terrible shape. if you listen to some people on the far left, you would think it was failing to

u.s. economy.nd in a separate speech chicago fed president charles evans echoed those comments, saying the central bank is monitoring global events. >>> still ahead, the beaten down sector that was a bright spot in today's otherwise bleak market. but first a look at the 30 stocks in the dow. walmart was the only one that closed higher on the session. ♪ >>> the number of americans filing first-time unemployment benefits fell last week. initial jobless claims dropped by 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 277,000. that remains near historic lows. in a separate report global outplacement firm challenger, gray & christmas said planned job cuts last month fell to a 15-year low. positive news ahead of tomorrow's monthly employment report. >>> bed bath & beyond lowering its earnings guidance. and that is where we begin tonight's market focus. the home goods retailer missed analysts' revenue expectations and also saw its comparable sales fall by .4%. shares of the company were volatile in after-hours trading.

u.s. economy because as we have seen over the last six years, the u.s. en growing 2% to two .25%, there have been ups and downs but i think the u.s. economy has come back quite significantly from the great recession and the expansion is on solid ground here. >> what is an example of greed on wall street today? a specific thing. sanders: when you have wall street whose greed and recklessness created the worst economic downturn in the modern history of the united states where millions of people lost their jobs, their life savings, and their homes. i have not heard an apology. >> a current example of recklessness? bernie sanders: we have not yet changed, wall street has not changed its business model, instead of investing and making affordable loans available for small and beat them sized businesses, if they continue to come up with complicated financial instruments which i think have the potential to do serious harm in the future. >> who are the economic thinkers who have influenced your views on these issues? renie sanders: robert ich, the former secretary

u.s. economy.he fed also has some confidence as do we that the drop in energy prices is definitely a positive for the u.s. economy. may take some time for all of those positive effects to reveal themselves but certainly over the medium term and that's what they're focused on its a positive. so we think they'll still have a positive assessment on the trajectory of the u.s. economy and labor markets. they'll acknowledge that maybe there's some financial conditions that tightened a bit and external developments have been more unsettled but they'll be monitoring those things but in our view it's not enough to derail them. >> there seems to be such an intense argument developing over the true state of the economy. some people say look we're already in a manufacturing recession. we have a profits recession. how can you and others have such a positive view about where the u.s. economy sits right now in light of all of that and what may be deteriorating other parts of our economic picture. >> well, it has

u.s. economy to play 16? ions with saudi arabia and iran could impact the global oil market. scarlet: but julie hyman has been tracking the losses in u.s. equity today. in the u.s., we have been off the lows and grinding away somewhat higher. higher relative to our lows. julie: it is all relative of it. let's look at the major averages. indeed, the dow earlier was down over 400 points. a steep drop in the steepest we have seen since september 28 of the major averages. it is still a broad-based selloff as well if you take a look at my bloomberg terminal here at the imap. we are still seeing all the sectors in the red. financials and health care and consumer discretionary are some of the worst performing groups as we start of the year. you as wet to remind look at what is performing poorly today. what is performing the most performing today -- i want to remind you of what we saw last year in terms of the groups. energy obviously was the worst performing group. consumer discretionary and health care definitely se

u.s. economy. would theurther -- further rate rises hurt u.s. economy? richard: it takes me back to my point of the industrial side of the economy. they're not looking healthy at all. this rate hike has gone ahead the fed is over a barrel over this rate hike. it put itself into a corner and had to do it because of the disappointment from the june and september failure. it sort of had to make a first step could but i think having made the first up, he doesn't necessarily have to go on on a big tightening cycle, because says she wantsen it to be done gradually and not necessarily in a mechanical fashion. perry: that was richard speaking to me earlier. the jobs report helps stocks on both sides of the atlantic. u.s. shares are trading higher on the back end of that report. the gains have fizzled out this hour. this as the attention is turned into oil markets once again. we have seen oil dropping yet isther session, and brent close to decision at $33.50, which is another 12-year low, or close to another 12-year low for oil prices. we are seeing energy shares

u.s. economy. and i think that we can weather some of these storms out there that are happening abroad. >> the impact overseas of the stronger dollar are evident in the gdp report. it took almost half a point off gdp. another big negative, decline in investment dragged down by a fall-off in spending for oil drilling equipment. the one bright spot, consumers who are weaker than the third quarter but still good spend morgue than 2%. they're a big reason why many economists expect growth to improve this year. the u.s. economy's held up remark debris well but it could get some help from foreign economies if negative interest rates have their intended effect. >> i think this is all pointing to the fact that other central banks are finally getting on the program that they have to create the liquidity that the fed no longer needs to do for the u.s. economy. >> a big wall street rally showed investors were content to shrug off the weak u.s. growth and roll the dice on the prospects for better foreign growt

u.s. economy? >> yeah.ecretary josh earnest at the white house must have had cotton in his ears when he was watching the debate last night on had it on mute. there were a lot of substantive proposals out there including getting rid of taxes, a flat tax, corporate earnings overseas and making it possible to bring them back here without punitive taxes. so this was real substantive stuff on the table and pro growth policy proposals instead of the antigrowth ones. we're now getting from socialist bernie sanders and hillary clinton. deirdre: steve, you talked to so many business leaders, you are one. what do you think the u.s. economy needs? on a day like today when you see the dow trade down. it didn't close down, but it traded down 500 points. there's a lot of red flags about the volatility in the markets. concerns about china's growth slowing. what does corporate america need to feel confident, to hire people, to move forward? >> corporate america is the debate point last night. getting crushed by regulations

u.s. economy reflected. are the prospects for the rest of the world and in particular, china, and their prospects of 2016 on the u.s. economy? forecast for growth outside of the u.s. i would call sluggish. they are going to improve a little bit in 2016 but very uneven. for example, any country like venezuela, brazil, russia, that are exposed to commodities, are actually in recession. that will probably continue in 2016. india is a bright spot. china, on the other hand, is doing with a number of issues that are not cyclical. it will take years to do with overcapacity in their industries, overleveraged, aging population, and this transition they are trying to make from an export driven economy to a service sector consumer economy. that will take many years. i think the u.s. and world will have to get used to lower rates of chinese growth, and i think the world is adjusting to that, but that has implications for commodity prices. ,ome implications for u.s. gdp definite implications for u.s. domiciled companies

economy? even if the u.s. n't as exposed via corporate earnings or exports to the chinese economy, china impacts every single country's economy on the globe and the question is what does it mean for global growth? >> right. the currency has been the sparked that caused all of this last week and i was writing in an article in november and i mentioned the fact that 2% declines, 3% declines that we saw in august, they're nothing. we need to see much more to see all of this flushed out and we're starting to get toward the highest single digits. they might be managing things and this is all planned and there's such a run of private capital out of the country that the state cannot stop it falling quicker than it is and there's such a rush that it's speeding out the door. >> this is your wheel house. you were on an asian trading desk. you were an asian fund manager. >> yeah, for five years i was managing asian stocks. >> so read the november commentary, cnbc.com. predictive power. >> and we have to mention the circuit

u.s. economy. that is what you should be worried about. >> the u.s. economy is being impact the by china. that is what i'm saying. this is all a big feedback. >> the economy or the markets? >> both. the markets are six to eight months, 12 months ahead of what is going on. so the markets are and have been pricing in a much dire situation than -- >> the u.s. economy -- >> and i think if the market continues to rally, now to your point, if the market prices in, six to eight-month lead time, did it price in a blip or is this surreal. >> in six to eight months we'll be in recession and the market is going lower. that is my view. that is what i stick with. >> because of china? >> because of china. >> so again the markets are priced. the commodities are priced in. whatever you are talking about. >> i'm not short oil any more. i think the oil trade is hard down at these levels but you could short u.s. stocks if you are a trader and want to be aggressive. there is nothing wrong with being short aggressive stocks. you buy tlt which is what guy has been saying fo

u.s. economy like we're living on two different planets. planet optimist has 250 peoples and planet pessimist thinking we're heading into recession what have you. underlying economic data in the u.s. is pretty good. employment picture is strong. u.s. economy is looking pretty good. china has been weak for two years. we've been talking about china being weak for two years. trish: that's a good point. >> trish, i disagree with him. i'm sorry. trish: let me add to this point. i think that there are a lot of reasons to be concerned about china because of its influence on overall world economy but, cheryl, keep in mind we're $18 trillion economy. used this stat before. $150 billion less than. >> we're growing at 2% though. we're growing at 2%. that is the problem. >> exactly. you guys talk about fear, this is just fear. no this is based on can you believe the chinese government? many traders i talk to say you can not. that's -- if we get better answer out of china's markets and all wake up tomorrow and feel much, much better fine. we'll take the

u.s. economy is not as strong as people are led to believe. ewart: that has been the case at for a number of years in terms of the economy undershooting the optimistic fed's forecast. as we look at what happened towards the end of last year, the second half of last year was disappointed for most economists. yesterday.coming in the economy is not doing as well as most people thought. privately, fed governors would admit that. the manufacturing sector probably in recession. the services sector doing ok, boosted by increases in health care costs. if you look at one side, there is bound to be a recession. the other, we can still muddle through. francine: muddle through does not lead to interest rate rises. stewart: we also have the fed, they've done a lot of work on their communication policies. but we have seen from the two fed governors as they are trying to build a narrative around the proposed policy of four rate rises. they have to be optimistic on the economy and go out and say the u.s. economy is doing fine. any problems that come from aerse

growth around the world, and modest improvement in advanced economies, a little bit higher growth in the euro area, marginally higher in the u.s well, and the beginning of a recovery in some of the -- those emerging and developing economies that are contracting very sharply this year. >>> barnaby phillips is live right now in london. barnaby can you tell us how the u.s. and the global economy rsz fairing in this latest report? >> reporter: as you said, del, it's a very mixed picture, and if you wanted to be pessimistic, you can take things away from this report, if you wanted to be optimistic you could take things away from this report. yes, the imf is saying there will be modest global growth over the next two years, but they are also scaling down their estimate of that growth by .2% compared to what they were saying only as recently as october. modest growth in europe, in the united states, growth of 2.5, 2.6% in 2016, 2017. bad news for china, as you were saying. bad news for brazil, a contraction there of 3.5% predicted in 2016, which will really weigh on the whole latin america economic area. for europe the imf said the r

u.s. economy and i forget. if you look at exports to china -- notrtion of u.s. gdp that important to the u.s. economy in aggregate. if you look at exports to china is not that significant. gdp everybody is worried about china having a subprime mortgage crisis. when you look at bank exposure to china, it is in .8%. 500 at topline sales of s&p companies. less than 2%. it is not that signifint, the number, to warrant the response because china might appreciate their currency or china is growing slower. the long-term prospects for china are not great. charlie: long-term? even after they make this dramatic shift of their economic base from export to consumer demand? sharmin: in fact, the title of the piece you made a reference to is walled in. china's great dilemma. are trying toe talk about the rebalancing you mentioned, how to shift from export oriented investment led economy to a consumer-oriented economy and implement a reform agenda from the plan they had in 2013, it's a herculean challenge. charlie: but can there call bush's? sharmin: we are not -- charlie: but

u.s. economy. that said, if you want to look at the russian economy or the economy of a middle eastern country, a large oil state or even a norwegian economy that is in much better state, yes, there are some parallels. they really have an asset that dominates their consumption and gdp going down like our housing asset did. joe: facebook shares -- alix: facebook shares rallying. we will be back with more analysis on facebook results. ♪ alix: let's get right to mark crumpton. mark: environmental and civil rights groups filed a lawsuit today, asking a federal judge to order the replacement of all lead pipes in the flint water system. ins the latest lawsuit filed the michigan city water crisis. governor rick snyder joined local officials in a press conference today. >> the short-term issue is about recoating the pipe. that will be based on expert saying that the water is safe. the goal is to get the water coming out of the tap safe as soon as possible. mark: a committee has been appointed to help the re

u.s. economy. could you give us your version of what's happening overseas versus what's happening in the united states? >> sure, in terms of the u.s. economy, we're in good shape. unemployment's at 5%. gdp growth averaging a little over 2%. i see that momentum carrying into this year in 2016. i think we're, relative to most other countries, in very good shape. i think partly because we took very aggressive monetary policy actions and other actions to get our economy back on track sooner. clearly, europe, asia, is struggling more. the steps i see happening there in terms of policy responses i think are going to help give those economies back on track over the next couple of years. clearly, we're a little ahead of the pack in terms of getting back to full employment on a good sustainable path. >> as a central banker do you feel difference being too far ahead of the pack here? is there a limit to how much the fed can and will do this year because of the weakness overseas? >> we talk about divergence b

u.s. economy, the reality is that we've got a manufacturing sector that is already in recession. that is not likely to change in the near future. u.s. dollar continues to surge. so the u.s. dollar is now up 25% in the short space of two years. that's a significant amount of tightening, effective tightening by the fed. so, the fed has already made enough signals to, you no he, translate monitary policy into an tightening position. and that's where they are right now. i think at some point they will have to back off a little on that because i don't think the u.s. economy can withstand more than one or two rate hikes in the near future. if they do more than that, there is no question probability of recession would increase significantly in later 2016. ashley: what is putting downward pressure on inflation is commodity price, oil in particular. nowhere near the 2% mark the fed would like to see. stuart, how long is this oil glut going to last can you see especially with the global economy, china particular struggling? the demand just isn't there? >> news from china put downward pressu

u.s. economy, it is a higher percentage of the profitability of the s&p 500. weakness, particularly weakness outside the u.s., it affect our companies, probability, the market, to a greater degree than it might affect the underlying economy. as a monetary policy maker, you have got to watch these market moves but you got to realize they may or may not reflect what's going on in the underlying economy in the united states or better yet they can go down for two weeks and they can rebound as they did in august and september and the underlying fundamentals are still strong. i would say you have to watch it and understand that not over read or overreact. it takes time to figure out what the market may be saying. michael: the government reported almost 300,000 jobs were created in december. monday, the markets tanked. does it were you when investors do not react positively to good news? robert: no. investors and the market are reacting to corporate profits and expectation of corporate profit. i mindful of that. corporate profits in 2015 were down in the s&p. has not

u.s. economy though it is a little confusing to hear jp morgan out with earnings saying it's credit card businessas good as it's ever been. there's a fundamental disconnect with certain parts of the economy and other weaker spots. >> certainly in the service area the economy is doing better. manufacturing is essentially in a recession but the services part will be -- the key will be the consumer. the consumer is getting a great benefit from lower oil prices but for those that rent they're getting hurt. that's 35% of the households. health care costs are higher. which is also a cramp on consumer spending. so as we're still in this state of the economy which is okay because it's better than a recession but it's not what we're used to and it's more of a muddled long situation unfortunately. >> are there any bright spots? >> we're finally reaching a point where central bankers are losing their effectiveness. so in the short-term it's going to be extraordinarily painful but hopefully lessons can be learned from this and the economy can adjust without the constant intervention from central bankers. >>

u.s. economy or u.s. companies, but of those three, which one has the greatest potential to do so in 2016? >> tyler, that's a great point about how it hasn't shown up in the economics or fundamentals yet, but the one that probably holds the most risk for u.s. markets is probably the middle east. and i say that because right now we've gotten used to low energy prices, and that's been a great boom to u.s. consumers, to international consumers. if that situation were to change meaningfully, and by that, i mean, you know, higher oil prices, that would be something we would really watch as something where the global economy might be shocked if oil prices were to jump sharply from here. >> yet, when we saw the saber-rattling between saudi arabia and iran the other day, we did see a pop in oil, but then it dropped back down again. so, it doesn't seem to be responding in what would be the typical way to the war of words that we're hearing. >> exactly, sue. what's happening this time is you've got kind of the geop

economy creates. joe: last and less. scarlet: u.s.wth is likely to stay stagnant despite picking up, according to morgan stanley. ellen is the chief u.s. economist at morgan stanley. your growth forecast is well below consensus as well as the fed. what do you see as a negative? ellen: i think that here we are entering a year where the fed possibly is going to be continuing a rate hike cycle. it is difficult for us to see how do we accelerate into that in a rising interest rate environment. instead, we think growth holds up fairly well in the raising environment. it does not accelerate so we think they have it wrong. i look at where we are tracking for gdp in the fourth quarter -- a very low. that is not a good rant going into 2016. it will make it difficult for the fed to hit the growth targets they laid out for the year. joe: it looks like q4 will be pretty mediocre, but we know job creation in november, december and september was quite strong. the nation has ongoing weak productivity. what are you attributed to the malaise? ellen: i

u.s. economy is not as bad as you think. coming up next. ♪ scarlet: i am scarlet fu. t to mark crumpton. mark: the u.s. supreme court says people serving life terms for murders they committed as teenagers must have a chance to seek freedom. the 6-3 ruling extends stanza 2012 position that struck down automatically comes with no chance for parole for teenage killers. even those convicted long ago must be considered for parole or given a new sentence it a new video released by the islamic whoe shows the extremists carried out the paris index committing other atrocities. all nine militants seen in the video died in the attacks or in the aftermath. several were seen on the video shooting or beheading captives. now that sanctions have been lifted, iran is emerging from international isolation. president are som -- president hassan rouhani arrived in rome, the first up on a european tour. contractscted to sign with a number of companies. trio fledthink that 15 hours before their absence was even noticed on friday night. the prisoners cut steel bars and made reps with ben she

u.s. economy and the u.s. consumer because this is 80% of our economy. doubt that there's discretionary spending dollars available for all the other things in life here. it's bad for the u.s. oil exploration and production industry, obviously, and those great-paying jobs that go with that. but i don't and still don't think that it's a big enough problem to take down the economy. and deflation is really something that's more of a problem for economists if you ask me than it is for the average consumer. >> very quickly, when do we get close to that $18 a barrel bottom you that forecast? >> i think it will be more toward the late winter, early spring. u.s. refiners go into maintenance to get ready to make the gasoline we need for the summer driving season. and that's going to cause crude oil to back up again in inventories and that's going to cause prices to really collapse finally and shake them out and really take a two-by-four to the world's producers and say guys, we've got to do something here. >> all right, john. good to see you as always. >> same her

u.s. economy is mixed. the price of a gallon of gas, the nation wide average isrice of a gallon of milk. americans are also saving on heating oil and airline fares. but on the flip side, more than 0,000 people lost energy related jobs last year. and for many, there's less money in the bank. since last november, the averagean has lost about $9500 in his or her 401 k. >> thanks. >>> experts say the marketlity will continue at least until the price of oil starts to stabilize. >>> one florida woman earned the title super mom.hree people tried to car jack the car. and the trio turned their attention to a secondect made it into the driver's seat but the owner wasn't about to the let them get away, especially with her children e pulled the car jacker from the car and they caught the two adults and one juvenile. >>> first there's fire, then ice.elphia apartment building engulfed in flames is now incased in ice. temperatures dipped to the firefighters battled the 4 alarm blaze and here with another check of this crazy weather.there's going to be a severe weather risk and a threat of tornados. jac

u.s. economy added 2.7 million jobs.ow, that's down from 3.1 million the previous year, but you've got to go all the way back to the late 1990s to find two consecutive years of greater job growth. the government experts also revised up the past two months of job growth, saying final calculations show 307,000 jobs were added in october and 252,000 were added in november. >> if growth remains too weak, if china's story is for real, the stock market's got a problem. >> reporter: so, what does this mean for the federal reserve? they continue to raise rates. >> i think they will continue. it will end up being a lot slower than people think. so maybe they raise it one more time this year. >> reporter: meanwhile, back at the job fair in washington, paulette davidson said what most of the jobseekers told us today, she's feeling good about finding a job. >> just being here today gives me hope that, you know, things are starting to change. the nation itself is looking for people who need help, and everybody always needs a job. it

economy. with we talk to michael froman. he is the u.s. trade representative. >> we live in a very open economy here in the united states. our tariffs, which are the taxes on imports, are very low. we don't use regulations as a barrier to trade. but when we look abroad into the asia-pacific region which is where the some of the largest and fastest growing economies are we face high tariffs and many barriers and t.p.p. eliminates or reduces barriers so we can keep production in the united states, grow production in the united states, export more and create more good-paying job in the united states. >> rose: stock markets, politics and the economy, when we continue. >> rose: funding for "charlie rose" has been provided by: >> and by bloomberg, a provider of multimedia news and information services worldwide. captioning sponsored by rose communications from our studios in new york city, this is charlie rose. >> rose: stocks tumbled around the world today. the drop is a part of a larger global slowdown. it come amidst concerns over declining oi