of that will come out on wednesday. matt: that will definitely be fascinating, and we look forward to that. bloomberg's daniel shafer in frankfurt, edward universelin don't, and here in berlin, benedict. he head of fx research and strategy is still with us, valentin, the conversation moving to the u.s. after manufacturing saw its weakest month since 2009 in december, what do you expect for the u.s. economy? we have had a wide range of forecasts. >> well, it was quite a sobering release indeed. but it ties in with our expectation of a subtrend growth for the u.s. economy, at least for the first half of this year. in particularly, we think that the business confidence will continue to struggle by implication. lack of investment overall will continue to hamper growth and before long may even impact the otherwise resilient labor markets in the u.s. all of which makes us expect another insurance cut by the fed potentially as soon as june. i guess i should also mention that the latest developments that we are seeing, really the higher oil prices, by implication the weaker stock market would present unwarranted tightening in the global and u.s. conditi