this is an expensive district that goes from utica to the being him area. he is an assembly man that is challenging claudia. she has been in the seat for two years and is a former state assemblywoman. she is a republican, a conservative, and has gotten a boost from donald trump. donald trump at a fundraiser for her and spoke on her behalf. eric trump was here recently and said a vote against claudia is a vote against his father. they are banking on the fact that the district has a slight republican enrollment edge, about 150,000 or so republicans. are hoping that her closeness with donald trump and the trump support puts her over the top, but that is a risky proposition. host: the president won the district back in 2016. what are some of the factors that you think because of claudia, why she cannot capitalize on that for a bigger margin? guest: well, the so-called blue wave, right? that is what the democrats are banking on. anthony has had a lot of support from democrats who were banking on the blue wave that will put them over the top. it is a site republi

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the state of maine number two, new york 22, utica. west virginia three. why do i say watch these three? i think there's any doubt democrats will windows congressional seat in new jersey and suburban philadelphia, places like that we had suburban voters, very comfortable saying they will do well. the difference between doing well and very well is going to widen the ability to carry these red seats. you have to go in and pick some up there. those are the three, my friend wrote a column about this and use write about it those are the three that think you want to look at. i have another weird theory, this is just my theory. if in the florida senate, if nelson wins by five, the senate is in play. if he is ahead by that much, and i know north dakota is given, nevada is different, but elections moving tandem. they just do. they almost, this might be the rare exception because you had this high turnout that they don't move in tandem but if you are like me you want a to cheat sheet going into election night so you get a sense of how we're going to do. those three

maine 2, northern maine, new york 22, utica, and west virginia 3. now, why do i say watch these three? i think without a doubt those democrats are going to win those congressional seats in new jersey and suburban philadelphia, places like that where you have suburban voters, very comfortable in saying they're going to do well. the difference between doing well and really well is going to be -- lie in the ability to carry these red seats. >> these are trump seats. >> you're going to have to go in and pick some up there. those are the three -- my friend al hunt wrote a column about this and i think he was right about it. those are the three that i think you want to look at. i have another weird theory. this is just a james carville theory. if, in the florida senate, if nelson wins by five, the senate is in play. if he's ahead by that much -- and i know north dakota's different and nevada's different, but elections move in tandem. they just do. and they almost -- this might be the rare exception, >>> if you're like me, you want a cheat sheet going into