eye on wti crude. with concerns about emerging markets the low levels these currencies are trading at and slow down in china is resulting in some investors looking at safety gold. up about four goals. how do you make money in these environments? here's what investors have been telling us. >> fixed income has been a story of the rates starting to back up and widening and we're starting to see a bit of reversal in that. rate versus gone much better in the last couple of weeks and we're starting to see spreads stabilize as well. so even pockets of like investment and parts of high yield as well are places that we think given the deflation nary forces going on can perform relatively well here. >> you wouldn't necessarily touch it if you look at the economics and ratings of it but if you understand the dynamics behind the credit markets there lebanon is what we call a very traditional market. >> why is everyone looking for this great push higher? against a market which is pretty well priced? that's not a pl

actually, i put out a recommendation to be a buyer of wti. probably was a little early to say let's buy it. there's one thing that changes the position from being bearish to neutral. and i probably was a bit reckless in going from being bearish to bullish. but the fact we put up a 30 tick on wti and the fact the contango continued to narrow today i think i'm okay. it's a small punt. it's a big change in psychology. it's a big change in my philosophy. but i think from here on out the time to be short is clearly passed. i might be early in being long but clearly the time to be short is over. >> so the lows are in for crude. is this a crude-specific story or do you also think that we've seen the lows in other parts of the commodity complex? >> actually, i think we've seen the low in grains. we had an outside reversal day in soybeans yesterday. i think that was impressive. clearly we've seen the lows in the gold market, in dollar terms we've seen the lows in the gold market in euro and yen terms. that happened three and four weeks ago. so over ti

wti lower by 10 cents. brent crude at 17 cents. this after of course posting a 10% surge in yesterday's trade we are seeing a little bit of buying today. continuing to hover around multiyear lows. the european markets trading in negative territory after a big move to the upside yesterday. the cac 40 due to disappointing earnings slightly lower by 10 points. u.k.gdp second estimate at 0.7% quarter over quarter. that was in line with expectations. lower though in today's trade. that is equity market by around one point. the underperformer if you look at european markets. let's get the word from the portfolio manager joining us. hey, how are you doing? >> good morning. >> let's make sense of -- let's help our audience understand how to make sense of all the moves that we're seeing today. oil prices lower after the big surge yesterday. does that suggest that the sell off is not over? >> i would just recommend they be more pragmatic at this juncture. they're resetting expectations on their long-term growth trajectory and there's a massi

how significant is it that wti crude is back above 40 psychologically for traders nicholas?> yeah, it's very very important. we've got a short checklist of things that we think signal the bottom in stocks and getting wti crude back over 40 was top of that list. it feeds into this deflationary angle. we begin to take threats off the table for the balance of the year and into next year. that's definitely a positive for stocks. >> do you think the current market turmoil is beginning to impact for riskier assets. >> there's a case by case basis. among our institutional clients we hear a lot of attention on u.s. stocks. that should stabilize for the year. >> thank you for joining us here on worldwide exchange. chief market strategist at convergex. stay tuned. senior economics reporter interview with kansas city fed president esther george is coming up at 6:30 a.m. eastern on squawk box. just off session highs but up by 2.8%. helped by the oil and gas sector. that does it for us here on worldwide exchange. we'll see you tomorrow, next up is squawk box. like your natural teeth. but

wti crude at 40.60. we're very close to that very crucial 40 level. these are levels we have not seen since 2009. since the credit crunch and it all depends on increased production out of saudi arabia. that's increasing once again and yesterday we got that pretty bearish data as well in terms of the stock piles. >> the question is how low will it go. a hold reporting a 33% rise in second quarter net profit thanks to online sales growth. the dutch retailer says it's on track to deliver on its full year performance. analysts say this bodes well for the 25 billion euro merger with the belgian rival delhaize in june. in a first on cnbc interview, here's what the ceo had to say about the tie up. >> it's a 50 billion in the newer company and there's still a limited number but we all know how difficult it is to extract it out of a merger. on the other hand, i think, the merger has a lot of benefits. the markets we operate, there must be benefits coming out in the future from these synergies and they match together very well. that's why we believe as we annou

. >>> oil hitting a fresh 6 1/2 year low with wti below the $40 mark. pressure is being put on the gulf markets. >>> the oil decline in china woes also hitting emerging market currencies. the russian ruble nears a 2015 low despite efforts from the government's stemming its fall. >>> hi, everybody. good morning. glad that you're joining us today. you would have seen on "squawk box" that we opened in substantially lower territory. three minutes into trade this morning and many of our european equity markets off somewhere in the region of 3 to 4%. the selling continuing today. a lot of nervousness back in the markets despite the fact that we're looking at an august lightly quit at this season. supposedly we saw the most volume of the year on friday's close with all of our indexes in severe negative territory on friday's session. over the weekend, a lot of people, they were assuming that the pboc in china, that they might do something to stabilize their markets there. they might inject more liquidity, cut the rates. they didn't. some of what we were seeing

wti still on the slide and brent falling below $50. u.s. futures indicating a higher open. >> it's all eyes on the screen tonight as the first gop debate kicks off in cleveland while john stewart presents his final daily show. >>> coming up on the show facebook serves another blow to twitter as it launches a video streaming service but don't expect to see the worldwide exchange team on there just yet. we'll explain why later. >> plus investors cut the cable as disney disappoints. we tune in on the details. >> we're live in beijing with the latest after investigators confirm a winged washed up on shore is that of missing jet mh-370. >> disappointing jobs data. the number of new jobs created slowed to 185,000 but at the same time manufacturing index jumping to its highest level in ten years. goldman sachs as well as jp morgan upping their u.s. gdp target for the year. a slew of earnings coming out today and of course that could change the story on wall street. if you take a look at european markets a host of companies reporting earnings in ge

look at that nearly 9% gain for wti crude. as for the ten-year, let's flip over the boards and show you. it's currently sitting at 2.05%. also good news on the cholesterol-fighting front. and has the perct car been finally created? all of those things and lots, lots more today. tyler is out today once again but kayla tausche joins me live at the nyse with bob pisani. hi there, kayla. >> hey, mandy, great to be here. we are watching the markets in rally mode. mandy ran through just how historic the gains we're seeing are. put this in perspective. just the fact that the dow has risen, what, 1,000 points in two days? >> 1,000 points in a day and a half. the s&p is 100 points. you're seeing some numbers you're not going to likely see very, very often. i haven't seen them. i've been here a long time. look at the s&p 500 melting up here chasing stocks here. we've got to get them because they're running away from us. that's what it looks like. it's been a long week. but let me show you the markets today. we're getting strange numbers

wti and brent slipping into the red after the best day in over six years. oil and gas still in the green here in europe. >> blame it on the fed. chinese official says u.s. central bank is at fault for the sell off. stocks in asia close sharply. but keep investors in luxury stocks. >>> bigger, not always better. the ceo tells cnbc he's not interested in chasing scale. >> when you're living in a changing world, the species that survives is not the biggest. they are the fastest and i believe our role as havas as a global company, we need to lead the way of the change of how we can be more nimble. >> welcome to the show and happy friday to you. it's oil catching the attention of investors. crude oil just turned into negative territory after yesterday's 10% leap. that was the biggest one-day rally since march of 2009. this thanks to a bounce back in global equities and a strong u.s. growth print. in the u.s. the energy sector had the best day since november 2011 gaining over 5%. leading the way was console energy up almost 14%. transocean higher by 11.5%. the se

today, wti crude, down another 1%, will. >> indeed. 6 1/2 year low we're looking at wti, an amazing performancerkets. i wonder the if that derails investors for the past month. big name investor such as warren buffett have talked about what stocks they're buying and selling. the latest round of the so-called whale watching disclosure are now out and landon has the details for it. >> good morning to you. it's that time of quarter when we get the biggest insight on what investor are adding and substraking from their portfolios. apple was popular again in the second quarter. david einhorn's capital stake, up 1% in the second quarter and since. the stock is down 8% following its disappointing earn bs report. warren buffett's berk shine hathway is indicating another buy next week. only a small percentage of the stock perk shire bought is at play. john paulson cut his stake in the world's largest gold in the second quarter. the move came before gold prices tumbled in july. the weakest monthly performance in more than two years. george soros is eyeing the cable sector, taking a new stake in time warne

wti crude off by 3%. so that's what we're seeing when it comes to some of the commodities out there. when it comes to the fx markets and currency rates, you're looking again at a euro collar which has been on the move which is quite substantial. euro, 1.1469. huge move to the up side in the euro in friday's trade. that's following through today as well. the dollar against the yen down by a tad sitting around 120. the bonds as well, just briefly glanced at them, we've seen some safe haven buying into the some of the core markets still happening on to a little bit of green. germany flat lining a bit since we last looked at the bond markets a half an hour ago or so. in italy you're seeing a little bit of selling. periphery bond markets are being sold back just a tad with yields heading higher. a bit of repositions taking place today, seema. >> yeah, absolutely. on friday the dow dropping 520 points. biggest one day decline in four years. it is now officially in correction territory along with a tech heavy na

>> well, i don't think wti really -- i don't think american economy is going to drive wti because china growth leader, and when date out of china this weekend kind of what is driving the trade, likewise, too, mike i would suggest, that u.s. economic growth averaged 1 1/2 percent first half 2015, friday most employment wage data was awfully soft there is no i chatter within the interest rate markets that fed in fact may publicity any rate normalization of 2015, maybe put that in 2016, for fear that the downside of u.s. economic performance remains larger than upside. >> chicago i look to john to get me what do i need to know one can takeaway from our conversation right now is that you are seeing heavy volume on this selling to the downside, in the front month crude oil contract to me says there is more selling to come, and i think that is what you are telling us, as we see crude oil prices, down again, another percent this morning at 4640 a barrel how low go it go john. >> probably high 30s sandra iranians giving financial situation, are most likely going to get to a million barrels a da

wti below $42. it's off 0.6% today. brent is at 48.9. it's also off 0.6%. gold has been soging and sluggish for quite sometime now it got a boost earlier in the week off the back of the chinese devaluations and it's finishing the week at 1,116. let's check in on markets in asia. sri in singapore for us as ever. sri, over to you. >> hi, wilf. let me pick up on the china devaluations story as we round off the week. that has moved this cycle story to a certain degree. but let face it if beijing is subjecting the currency increasingly to market forces the economy is weakening so you have to expect to see a weakening yuan currency as well. so in a way, beijing is coming a little feddish is the way i would characterize it is going to be data dependent and it habit been stellar so that's going to weigh on the currency by implications of the regional currencies as well. i want to talk about oil. that's a big narrative today. oil at 6 year lows. that's really hit some of the oil exporting countries today malaysia off by 1.25%. we were down by 2% so the lowest levels

brent prices are flat but wti crude is currently changing hands at 4250 off by a third of 1%. we did see prices edging higher on the back of the better than expected u.s. data. for the week, wti is still on pace for the 8th straight weekly loss, guys. >> thank you for that. now the u.s. federal reserve will release the minutes from the latest policy meeting at 19:00 cet. investors will be watching for clues on whether the recent market turmoil could delay a rate hike. they'll also be in focus with analysts expecting no growth once the oil is tripped out. the fed watch data puts a 25 basis point hike in september at 59%. >> double line capital's jeff gundlach said it would be a bad idea to raise rates next month. if the fed does move it opens the lid of a pandora's box an tightening cycle. worries over china's growth outlook should be a big concern. last year he correctly predicted u.s. bond yields would fall because inflation was nonkp nonexistant. thank you for joining us. let's talk about what we expect there. do you think they'll maintain a relatively optimistic outlook? ma

this is the october contract for wti. 41.03. now on track for the longest losing streak since 1986. as for stocks, let's check out the u.s. equity futures after yesterday's rougher than rough session. the dow was down by over 350 points at the end of the ss

more than half think the commodity will fall between $30 and $50 for wti, and $40 to $60 for brent. that's lower than previously thought. >> refineries have to turn around and make the fall products, gasoline, heating oil, things like that. you're going to see less demand at the refinery level for crude oil. you're going to see supplies start to build again. that will put pressure on prices. i don't think that pressure will be relieved until we see the summer driving season which actually starts in the spring of 2016. >> reporter: when asked what factors will impact crude prices the most, the majority of respondents said supply. behind them, the dollar, and 10% said that technicals will drive crude prices. >> the world produces about 2 1/2 to 3 million barrels a day more than it uses. we need to get that under control for prices to rise. demand isn't going to rise 2 million barrels a day between now and 2016. so the only way to get crude oil prices higher is to reduce the supply. >> reporter: with respect to u.s. supply, 60% still feel production will flat line or even rise. if they

wti down almost 2% t.tion is allowing companies to trade oil with mexico, the first time in four decades, marking the erosion on u.s. crude completely. but there are concerns this could further lower oil prices by adding more supply to the market. joining us to discuss these dynamics, kevin book, managing director at clearview energy partners. kevin, the pressure this morning, with econtinue to see on oil, is it driven by the oversupply sore it now the demand factors like china and what we learned last night, which is japan, back in negative growth. >> demand continues to collapse out from underneath us. particularly in asia. generally, there is also the ongoing supply story at the same time. if you are in the oil alphabet game, you heard the sort of the u-shaped and v-shaped an w-shaped. this one is the omg shaped recovery in oil prices, because i think we got a little further to thawl. >> where does u.s. production slow down? >> try to answer the first question, i don't think anyone can answer the second

brent and wti continuing their downward move today. we're off by around half of 1% for brent crude. 48.47. wti off by 0.76%. 41.55. wow, who would have thought we'd see that level. but according to the survey we saw yesterday market participants are expecting wti to trade between 30 and $40 barrel by the end of this year. >> okay. well, that sell off we mentioned in chinese stocks resumed in afternoon trade with traders citing a big injection from the pboc and really the need for that possible stimulus. this comes despite stronger data overnight which showed home prices rising for the third straight month. >> goldman sachs lowered it's currency. the sharp 3% devaluations took the bank by surprise. it sees china's currency depreciating versus the dollar by the end of next year. >> joining us live from houston is the chairwoman and founder and cnbc contributor. we're talking so much about emerging market weakness and china weakness on the show. do you want to dip your toe in the water and buy some of the emerging market assets? whether i

wti crude back above $40 barrel. of course a key psychological level that traders watch. up around 4.2% in today's trade as investors try to understand the supply demand ratio. brent crude at $44.77 up by around 3.8%. we're looking at spot gold and remember it hit a six week high last week and over the past three trading sessions despite the volatility in equity markets gold hasn't been getting much but in today's session we're higher by around .2%. chinese equities taking their queues from wall street. this marks the biggest one day percentage gain since july 9th and the first positive session in 6. let's get out to sri live in singapore. >> hi, seema. yes. risk aversion seems to be evaporating. the bulls are in control today so so far so good. big question is whether these gains can be sustained. it was a very strong day for mainland china equities. they came roaring back. staged a late lesson rally in the afternoon. up by 5.4% and retaking that handle. so breaking that five session losing streak, strong momentum today but will it continue in future days and future week

wti crude is down in this trading session. currently changing hands at 41.03 so we're off the 40 something levels yesterday. a lot of concern is that we'll break through the psychologically important 40 levels but we saw wti crude rolling over september to october but it's still on track for an 8 week losing streak and we vn seen that since january to march of 1986. it's a pretty big week for markets. spot gold is unchanged this morning but higher by 2% in yesterday's trading session. that was about the only thing that did rise in yesterday's trading session. we have the safe haven status that appeals to a lot of investors. also you have a lot of concern that the fed won't be hiking in september but we still have no inflationary pressure you have to wonder how long lasting that's going to be. gold is up 4.8%. quick look at the gold stocks which have been doing very well of late off by 1.24 and up by 0.68. >> how do you make money in the market? matt, a pleasure to have you on the show this morning. let's talk about the rise in

we are looking at both wti, this is but dollars a barrel.has been lowered the -- ready to release oil into the markets once sanctions left. take a look at gold prices today. the selloff is continuing down 4/10 of 1%. the fundamentals really do not .hange except for the coed inre seeing a five-year low bloomberg gas and oil and obviously if you produce any of these things, oil, metals, you're feeling some pain as prices continue to go lower. popper is worth mentioning as well today. right now i'm about three quarters of 1% that china data. continue to slide as well. on story has not changed this first trading day of august. so much.ank you greece's market reopens today after five weeks greek stocks were taking a plunge in the biggest selloff in decades. at the close of the athens stock and shane strowmatt of the stocks were down 23% in aggregate, they create a little, ending the day as it percent in native. o'm looking forward to tuesday. we might see a single stock enter positive territory. if not tuesday, later in the week and they may be s

look at that nearly 9% gain for wti crude.ten-year, let's flip over the boards and show you. it's currently sitting at

wti is down 3%. it hasn't closed below 41 or hasn't been below 41 since march of 2009. majors are selling off, refiners are selling off. is that what the culprit is today? >> i think it is. yes, i do. i think when you look at energy equities down 2.6%. you have the energy statistics that were released. we had the benefits of refineries using a lot of gasoline. there was a lot of demand out there back in april, may and june. we've lost that refineries are in maintenance so you've lost the gasoline demand. you don't have that marginal buyer that used to be the emerging markets. we know the chinese are challenged right now. last time oil was in the 30s, the chinese were out there aggressively buying it. we don't have that underneath the market right now. i still do not believe this is the time to be increasing investments in energy-related names. >> steve weiss, i don't know what you do today. you feel pretty good about what target had to say. but you need the dramamine if you're watching what is going on. within the last hour you have oil falling out of bed again. >> ther

i don't think that's the case now because of the move in the brent wti spread that beaks was just talking about. look at the report, look at the earnings report tesoro just had. it was crazy strong. valuationwise they're cheap. i think these stocks despite the tape can still go higher. >> macau acasinos, mgm, las vegas sands. gaming revenue came in 6% lower than the average in july. broader china reaction here. >> melco's had a nice run. they've been following these less bad kind of prints out of mac macau. if you listen to macau their second quarter numbers are good. weak vip. also the premiums getting slightly better again down single digits, used to be down 20%:30%. to say macau's going to turn on a dime especially with the regulatory concerns, fresh attacks on smoking and bans that are going to change the casino life i think it's time you trade. i think 25's the high range. i think 18.50's a proven low on melco. this is the environment until things truly inflect. but right now less bad, yes, i think it is stabilizing. you can make that call. >> you you don't have to necessarily panic

this move in crude oil -- wti, west texas intermediate is now up nearly 6%.one dramatic intraday chart. check at the

and the september wti contract, down almost 5% on the session. again, we're looking at lows since march of 2009. we've got a top commodities trader to discuss whether a floor is in sight. and, of course, all of this feeds into what will the fed do? what is inflation going to do in this country? >> always interrelated. that's for sure. meantime, $1 trillion, that's how much money has come out of emerging markets over the last 13 months. we're going to discuss whether you should be following that herd or maybe take a risk in the developing markets. that's a lot of money. a lot of zeros. >> it's a lot of zeros. >>> and 11 years ago today, speaking of a lot of zeros, google went public, the stock p up -- well, we should say 1,500% since then. we've got a stock brawl now on whether google is still a buy after an epic run like that. >> we're also going to look at other stocks that came public the same year in 2004. and as good a performance as google put in, there's at least one other stock that has done better that came out that same year. >> it's kin

october, wti, up about 15 cents. not really convincing us at the moment that it is going to be necessarily a strong day. still watching the september price. the low for that price, 4021. it will go off the board trading around $41 at the moment. tomorrow, we are going to get numbers. the dollar, after the fed, a little bit of a weaker dollar that could be supportive. we are keeping our eye on tropical storm danny in the atlantic. we have gas inventories coming out at 10:30. we'll bring you those numbers. prices are flat ahead of it. another stealth move in gold, about a $20 pop. trading over 1140. more short covering than new buyers. >> thank you very much, jackie deangelis. >> when we come back, 80% of energy stocks in the s&p are time to go bargain hunting in that sector. the dow is down 149. we'll ask jim if we are set to pop in any course of the day when we are back in a minute. [ male announcer ] whether it takes 200,000 parts, ♪ 800,000 hours of supercomputing time, 3 million lines of code, 40,000 sets of eyes,

meanwhile, wti headed for its biggest weekly streak of losses since 1986.lence and technology -- hp shares sink following earnings while twitter fell to its opening ipo price. high, caroline. caroline: let's start with a downward trajectory, on hewlett-packard. a rough rise in after our trading after missing analyst estimates. earnings are down 13%. sales weaken across the board, declining in the pc market in 12%icular, where its load in the previous quarter. but you are seeing it across the board. pc's, services, printers, software -- every part of hp's business was being rankled in the last quarter. chief executive saying it like it is, challenging macroeconomics, challenging i.t. spending environments. the key issue here is that difficult market environment is getting better anytime soon. several quarters to come, this environment will be difficult. remember, this is the last earnings from hewlett-packard before they split in november. they will be creating what business which is going to be hp, inc. they will also be splitting into hp enterprises, about

wti, $42 a barrel, heading for a seventh straight week of losses. to the situation in greece now. a tally shows greek lawmakers approved a third bailout package. this is only the first hurdle the new agreement has to face. it needs to go a head of germany. tony joins us now from berlin with more. can you give us the latest? tony: after this vote, which is quite a victory for greek prime minister alexis tsipras, the next step is brussels. that's where the focus will shift in a couple hours. euro area finance ministers are going to meet there and the idea is to give political backing to this bailout deal. there's still a couple or possibly quite a few open questions that will have to be dealt with. germany has been leading the charge in putting down markers on what still needs to be resolved. jonathan: as far as germany is concerned, what are the remaining obstacles and how will we dovetail the imf into this discussion as well? tony: that has been the big question around berlin all of this week. how do you keep or get the imf on board in this new bail

wti crude down 3.5%. we're at 45 and change.nt crude is now below $50 and change. >> five times this year they've been wrong trying to buy the bottom in energy. it's spreading beyond energy and materials. industrials, the big names, united technologies caterpillar down again on the global growth concerns. industrials is a much bigger segment than the material names and even bigger than the energy names. >> you're looking at retail too? >> i want to point out, take a look at the big retail names. remember, coors will be reporting on thursday. you think the stock is down 40% this year. how much further can it go? >> very important space, too. thanks, bob. we'll see you later. we'll see what this bodes for tomorrow. keep an eye on greece and puerto rico as well. >> it looks like the dow avoided a triple digit decline as it closed with a loss of 91 points. that does put it will he bow 17,600. s&p 500 is down six. the nasdaq down 12 for similar magnitude of declines. the dow is the clear underperformer. crude oil having a lot to do w

wti crude at $43.30. right now we're looking at brent crude. the international gauge for oil above $50 barrel at 50.08 up around 42 cents. light crude is higher by 5 cents but a heated debate as to the currency devaluations and the impact on the oil marks. some say this will spur growth and lead china after the unfortunately s. to buy more but commodities become even more costly and a negative for oil. >> indeed, it's a tough one to workout and, in general, the bigger thing for me the last couple of days is how serious the slow down in chinese growth is. >> the other factor is lower gas prices. will that feed into consumer spending more? we'll get a check on that at 8:30 a.m. eastern. in the meantime the environmental protection agency inspecting all field work at u.s. mines. this comes a week after a contractor caused a breach at a colorado goal mine sending toxi sludge into a river system. it's been identified as missouri restoration which worked on hurricane katrina and the oil spill. they were trying to cause waste water from escaping the m

but the fact you that see an eog or a pxd month to date up 6% or thereabouts with wti down 10% monthdate i think is extremely bullish for the underlying. we know the bullish scenario for the refiners but i think now it's time to maybe pick away at your premium names in the enp space. >> actually, it's not as great for the consumers as you would think. if you're in the midwest, in chicago, gasoline prices have gun gone up about 50 cents in a week and a half for other reasons, not necessarily demand reasons. there are some refiners that are offline. with that said i don't think it's the panacea for consumers. and i still think in the environment, we're in the only way you want to play this for the short term. trade is to remain long in the refiners. >> when you hear dennis say ill of that many times. this thing is about to make -- crude, that is-s about to make new lows and it really feels like you're going to see it down 10% someday. very, very soon. you're going to get a test how those equities act. if you think some of the big integrateds have overshot already, a chevron, that sort

fools the dollar is firming that's going to be bad for wti.it's bad for wti it's bad for the entire patch. integrated names exxonmobil sets up the best. but i think if you see oil come in it's still a tailwind for refiners. >> in the space the one thing i would note today, the refiners, which have just gotten crushed over the last couple twheerksz were actually weak most of the day, got a rally on the end of the day. these are shorts or sells on any rally. coming into a seasonally weak period for demand of gasoline, gasoline was down tremendously today. you've got to watch out for refiners. >> even with the move lower over the last 12 months in schlumberger it is not a cheap stock. it probably still trades close to 18 times forward earnings. the good news if you want to trade it from the long side, maids a 52-week low today on monster volume, about 58 million shares. typically trades 7 or 8. maybe if nothing else you can use today's low which i believe was $68 as your level on this what appears to be capitulatory selling. >> but is this with t

. >> brent and wti crude clawing back. gains after settling in the lowest level since 2009. also boosting oil and gas stocks across europe today. >> welcome, everyone to the show. we just did a read on the indicator for the state of the german economy and business ifo index, current conditions at 114.8 versus the expectations of 113.9 so slightly higher. looking also at expectations in 102.2 for the month of august. that's in line for expectations and sil to what we saw in month of july. the greek crisis and political impact in germany at this point doesn't seem to have had a big impact on german business sentiment. expectations for july at 102.3. >> let's get more on this. joining us on the phone. a pleasure to have you on the show today. will german business have to look elsewhere if china continues to weaken? that seems to be one of the big questions when i speak to economists. >> at the moment they're still in a relatively good state. this month particularly in the improvement retail sector has improved, construction sector but all the manufacturing is relatively strong.

wti crude up by .8%. this after the iea said that oil rebalancing will take time and that it sees the oil glut persisting. investors will look to more safe haven buying. perhaps that's why it's slightly higher today. it's a psychological level for traders. now back to our top story with china. the people's bank of china devalued the yuan for a second straight day sending the chinese currency to the lowest level in four years. markets have once again by hit by the move. how should investors react? well, we have been getting expert opinion all day. listen in. >> i don't see why you need to go any further. ultimately they already moved. this is china catching up. >> most overvalued currencies now are those that are pegged for the u.s. dollar. like the hong kong dollar and the big losers from what happened is the u. s. dollar. whether that's middle eastern markets or hong kong markets and that's an interesting trade. >> when you don't like commodities, south africa, when you have politics in turkey, you're en

check out wti. it's been nearing $40 barrel. right now 40.25.ven't fallen below $40 since march of 2009. our question, could crude's collapse be good news for consumers looking to see the world. we'll have the publisher when squawk box comes right back. what if there were only one kind of dog? then it would be easy to know everything about that one breed. but in fact, there are over three hundred breeds of dogs. because no one can be an expert in every one... an app powered by ibm watson will help vets tap specialized knowledge in the cloud for every breed... and whatever else walks, flies or slithers through the door. ibm watson is working to make medicine smarter every day. no student's ever been the king of the campus on day one. but you're armed with a roomy new jansport backpack, a powerful new dell 2-in-1 laptop, and durable new stellar notebooks, so you're walking the halls with varsity level swagger. that's what we call that new gear feeling. you left this on the bus... get it at the place with the experts to get you the right gear. offi

we think that $40 crude is unsustainable on b wti.e think that can probably improve over the next six to nine months. it is going to be volatile. for the iron-cast stock mac stomachs, slumber slay, occidental and devon. >>> the dow and s&p just hit session lows. they just bounced right off of those. peter kos stcosta from empire executions is here to tell us -- what just happened? >> i don't know what just happened but the market is, if you look at the breadth of the market, we were at a 6:5 ratio, now it is getting tighter around tighter as the day goes on. that only tells me as we get later toward the end of the today i i'm not sure what will happen on the close but we'll probably turn into negative on up and down volume. that will mean a much weaker close, go into a much weaker close. >> we should still note that today is much less volatile overall. the average move of 3% in the last four days. today it is just .5%. >> we actually don't mind this for one day. brokers on the floor love volatility because we make money when it is vol

brent and wti climb back gains after settling at the lowest level in 2009. >> it was a rough session overnight. housing a big part of the story. we're just hearing from one of the luxury home builders reporting q-3 earnings of 36 cents. that's well below the analyst expectations of 49 cents. revenue was to come in around $1.03 billion and revenue coming in line with expectations. we should point out the stock closing lower yesterday following the broader market sell off losing about 4.7% but year to date up about 5.7%. responding to the housing data over the past couple of months but back to the market sell off. the dow seeing a 4,000 point move in one session. we just captured the highs, lows and where the dow closed. at one point in the beginning of trade we saw the dow down by around 1,000 points. some traders sending me pictures just showing traders clued so their screens and cnbc saying what kind of ride are we in for? we saw the dow coming off the lows of the day still closing down in triple digits and this could be a rebound tuesday with the dow indicating a higher move by aro

last week was the sixth week in a row that wti has declined. we're looking at 43.8%. so significant weakness, of course in our markets over the last few weeks. and brent is at 48.5. gold has been zlisliding in the last few weeks. it continued at below 1100, 1.094. >>> china has seen the biggest one-day game in a month in hopes that beijing will embark on further easing. and exports slumped 8% in july. >> joining us now from new york is daniel tanningasi ahead of the ibc markets. daniel, very good morning to you. let's talk about the data in china given the data over the weekend. clearly the equity market in china is expecting more easing to come. and it's reacting to that. are you expecting more easing and do you think it will? >> correct. i think the easing will be very targeted. all right, it will be a story of trying to move away from the trade away sector into the consumption sector. so you do want to evolve, but you need to be careful what sectors you'll be disposed to. >> a sense of anxiety, a fear of a prolonged factor or hindering growth. do you think this is

wti still on the slide and brent falling below $50. u.s.

wti, below 42. 41.97. it's down 0.6% today. also bring you some flashes coming out from the rosneft ceo. they will increase production at their existing fields. of course another sign that it's taking much, much lower oil prices to see people cut supply even at 42 for wti. they decided not to cut and they'll be increasing production at their existing fields. >> speaking of oil, famed investor and author of the bloom, doom, and gloom report spoke to cnbc earlier today and shared his outlook for oil and commodity prices. >> it's partly demand and partly supply and obviously the supplies in the u.s. have gone up substantially. the iraqi oil production is up substantially but in other countries oil production is actually down. so the supply didn't really kill the oil price. in my view, it's the slow down in demand that came largely out of china and other emerging economies. you have to understand china is the largest trading company of a very large number of companies and raw materials from africa, asia, and sells it's goods into t

granted better than the drop we seen in wti. >> yeah. >> but when you tell somebody losing money that'ster than the drop, doesn't mean that much. >> yeah, that's true. absolute basis we look pretty bad right now and it is relative terms, yeah, that's how we sleep at night saying we're picking relative winners here and it's hard to make money when the commodity and all along in the space. you look at the move to valero, and valero within a whisper and reverse and we've seen that before. the wit spread works in the favor and there is gasoline in a weaker economy. the refiners generally speaking still work in this environment. >> i'll tell you something interesting. i'm not in depth refiners but one of the big data points we got with q 2 earnings is continental's call and pioneer, harold ham is plugged in continental said he expects the wti, the crude oil ban here, export ban to be lifted this fall and said there has never been this much momentum in congress. you'll get a vote in both sides, the house and senate this fall and that's lifted. if that happens, that spread gets decimated and r

we still have wti below $40 a barrel. does it stay here?kets have obviously been negatively reacting to the fact that china is falling or cratering, and at the very best, though, this is likely a short-term rally. brendan: peter, you have done some good work that you sent to us about demand globally. supply with the advent of fracking in the u.s., can you paint a picture of the next year of what demand will look like? let's step back from this morning's news. peter: if you look at the longer scope of how things move, demand is no longer really being driven by the maturing, rich world. it is really driven by emerging economies such as china and india. that consumption growth is expected to drive oil prices higher, but unfortunately, as you're seeing right now, that demand is not there. the world is now looking for where is the next driver of demand growth. unfortunately, as we look into the landscape, there is not much out there. brendan: really there are two inches, one of the u.s., which is not performed up to speed, and china, which is no

when wti was at 6. i stayed away. missed money. getting ready to jump in. >> i'm looking at two different things. first thing i'm looking at is the blue chip services names. i'm looking for them to outperforming the commodity. i'm looking for it again. think your blue chip osx names. >> halliburton. what do we think about this call, pete? >> i like it i'm looking, to your point i don't know that it necessarily is the time to start jumping in. you start building the list in the energy names, we've not seen the bottom in oil. last week there was a lift. i think there's still a little down side and some pain involved. it makes you wonder. many people are coming out with different calls on oil today. these days. whether you think it's going to have a three handle or not, 43 is only $3 from here. who knows where the train is going to drive from here, but this this call? >> i think the easy money in oil has been made already. it was made in the second quarter. the refiners seem to be working right now. that's the area of energy i would f

this is wti short contracts, who is betting for a decline in oil prices. see how much that has risen in just the past month or two m onths. whoops. i'm going to show you in a second. wait for it. it's going to be awesome. this explains why we see these violent, unbelievable moves in oil on just one tiny headline. scarlet: over a three-day keeper -- period, oil posted its biggest one-day gain in 25 years. scarlet: matt miller -- alix: matt miller is in the newsroom with more on the action. matt: i woke up this morning and put on a green tie and green shirt. a lot of people have been complaining. i was trying to induce the market to do well, and it did not work. we had a pretty bad day. coming into the close, 114 down on the dow, it is not a rule, but it tends to accelerate and get bigger and bigger, the losses. inverse isue -- the also true. last week wasn't horrible. the dow closed up 1.1% last week, the s&p was up 1% as well. it was the week before that that really stunk for people who were long on stocks. we had the worst now -- month for the dow since m

oil traders waiting to see how the week is going to shake out for wti, saw a more than 10% move todayetty historic there and seeing prices turning into positive territory at this point. a lot of people were expecting to see selling pressure today after a price like that. it makes a little sense. we look to the dollar as an indicator. it's trading just under $96. it's come off a long way. higher on the session. it's come off a long way in the next couple of weeks. now we're flat lining at this point. i will say biaker hughes going o be out. see if we add rigs again this week. maybe we'll go back to the fundamental story, the supply and demand, but right now it appears oil prices are moving along with equities and they're tentative. they want to see how the friday session is going to shake out. i want to mention retail gas prices. triple a saying the national average is 2 .51. it's down from 2.63 a week ago. some areas may be a little higher than others, but the prices have come down at the pump, almost at the 2 -- 2 $.50 range. >> understand that the terms that the halliburton is offer

this is wti short contracts, short heading for a decline in oil prices. see how much that has risen in the past month or two months? i'm going to show you in a second. it's going to be awesome. see the rally that we've seen? that explains why we've seen these violent, unbelievable moves in oil on one tiny highlighted -- headline. scarlet: oil posting its biggest three-day gain in 25 years. alix: bloomberg's matt miller is in the newsroom with more on today's action. and: i woke up this morning put on this green tie and green shirt. a lot of people have been complaining, but i was trying to induce the market to do well. it didn't work. a pretty bad day, and it's coming into the close. when you get numbers like this, 114 down on the down, it's not a rule, but they tend to accelerate and get bigger and bigger. last week wasn't horrible. last week was a great week. the dow closed up 1.1%. the s&p was up 1%. it was the week before that that released on for people who were long stocks. we had the worst month, as you said, for the dow since may 2010, and for the

wti crude had been down almost 1%. ty? >> melissa, is the u.s. economy facing a slowdown? new dada on u.s. manufacturing, raising some red flags, but the housing data flashing green to a rate hike. our senior economics reporter steve liesman is here to untangle it all for us in the context of the data dip -- >> if you're not confused, you're not paying attention the the debate over the fed raising rates reaching a new lovell as the temperatures rise in august. lousy manufacturing data this morning in the form of the big negative print for the empire state manufacturer, but homebuilder confidence soaring to a ten-year high. add that to the continued conundrum -- growth in jobs or low pressure -- the inflation data is not rat the fed looking for some improvement, so new deflationary impulse also come from the stronger dollar, which comes from the chinese devaluation, lower commodity prices and lower oil prices, but better growth data. q3 runnings a bit above trend. all of that makes the fed minutes and inflation the most significant releases, but don't force, a lot of what w