ed yardeni. german pollen capitol hill, a hard landing.nk we can all agree on this, the landing sure it -- landing strip, the runway has gotten narrower and could get more in the months ahead. lisa: i get your point and you are not wrong. you can not come out and say gloom and doom. he has to project some sort of confidence and cannot talk that negatively. if you were to acknowledge how perilous it has become, maybe he would have more credibility in his understanding of the situation. i say that at a time where other people are saying are you kidding me and even his own members on the federal reserve says this policy is wrongfooted or we need to go faster and he needs to engage with that more. jon: fed comments can become self fulfilling. i remember first time into central banks and someone said to me when you become a central banker you have to become very good at lying. tom: i agree with that. frankly i think they are lying less today than they were a number of years ago with the huge volume of communication that we see. i would suggest

i want to bring in yardeni research president, ed yardeni.here is a clip -- it was interesting, because it became news as zelenskyy was getting a standing ovation in the uk from yet another rousing speech but i do think it points to one thing, when you see the market reverse, go up being down 1%, being up 2%, that if this war can come to a conclusion sooner reason later what would it mean for this market? >> yeah. i think it would certainly go up. we'll he have seen it go up on a rumor talks are underway, they're making some progress. all that right now is just talk. we don't even know if whatever they come up with will actually be accepted by vladmir putin. so the whole thing could be for show, we don't know. as long as we have that uncertainty i don't think we can really incorporate that into an investment strategy. i think it will end at some point clearly. i think the sanctions will last longer. i think that will keep commodity prices elevated. i think we all have to conclude inflation will be higher for longer. charles: so with that in m

always come to the rescue the stock market at the very least has been put on hold, but you know ed yardeniut. non-financial corporate cash around $2 trillion, they are using it right now, mostly to reward shareholders, and part of that's keeping prices, share pr dividends. higher dividends and i like this because it's a pledge, not a promise, something they are going to do, and well, to me, i think it's a sign of strength. we saw dollar general yesterday, williams sonoma, talking big increases like 30% increases do you like it when these companies increase their dividend like this? >> charles you make a really good point and look what a wild week in the markets we just had. amid the land war in europe, inverted yield curve, fed raising rates, soaring inflation , russian debt default fears, and you get the best week and years for the financial markets and i think it's an example of why this is truly march madness. charles if you look, what happened when we came into this , we got extreme pessimism in a geopolitical event but you had really strong balance sheets for companies, and i think ed

i want to begin with the power a block, with the yardeni research president ed yardeni.d, let's start the conversation about impact of inflation on this economy and particularly how has it changed your modeling for this market? >> what has changed for me and everyone is the war in ukraine. it's a horrible situation. before the war there was widespread perception inflation would peak sometime in the spring and early summer. after the war we have to realize that's probably not going to happen. it may take until late summer or fall before we see a peak and the peak should be higher. i think what has really changed we're looking at higher inflation and slower economic growth. i don't know if it will be described as stagflation using the noun. i will use the adjective, it is a stags inflationary economic outlook compared to what it was before the war. charles: it is interesting, we all assumed at leasted good part of the inflation story would start to recede and that obviously will be delayed. over the weekend there was debate over the real level of inflation. jeff gundlach h

ed yardeni, it's the "s" word, stagflation word are you worried about that today? >> i think we're in it before the war we had a lot of data suggesting that we were experiencing an inflationary boom inflation was high, but at the same time i think there was widespread consensus and i agreed with it that we'd see peak inflation by march or april and we'd get back down to not 2% but maybe 3% or 4% but that was a result of the war and what happened with commodity prices we're clearly looking at higher inflation and peak inflation isn't going to be for a while. the concern of course is that we get more wage price spiral inflation. it's getting to be a little bit of a deja vu with the 1970s all over again since the war, i think stagflation is the scenario that's probably most descriptive of what we're starting to see which is higher inflation than we saw before the war and slower economic growth. >> that would be jay powell's worst nightmare. >> yes and no. in some ways he's gotten a reprieve here because i think he can stay behind the curve, well behind the curve of in

tom: a piercing conversation with ed yardeni harkening back to his great work in the 1990's on the collapsesoviet union and now commenting on what we observe today, war in ukraine. dow futures up 109, the vix shows the churn and stability of the markets this morning. lisa abramowicz and tom keene on radio and television. mario gabelli joins. to say he is officer at gabel li funds barely described his conversation to finance in america. he used to write 12 page notes on what is going on in the market. let's go there. i love your note on this morning where you say look for m&a given all that is going on in american finance and you speak of vertical and horizontal mergers and acquisitions. i love that. describe. mario: make it simple. we have a new regulatory regime in the united states. others are saying should a company that has a 5% market share and a company that has 8% market share, should they be combined into the old index -- i will not get into the details because i do not know how to pronounce it. the buyers of companies -- at the same time private equity buying companies -- is that o

>>recent analysts, no firm yardeni research estimates that the recent spike in gas prices. up to $2000 in annual cost to the typical household budget. now that's on top of another 1000 in additional costs for food. this year's expected will cruise vacation still a favorite choice among americans? triple a says 41% say they're considering a cruise in the future with millennials. even more eager over half say they're ready to return to the open seas. and aaa found 23% of americans considering a cruise in the next 2 years. well, southwest has a new air fare. it's called the one to get away. plus fair and that goes on sale the 2nd quarter. so this new class will all travelers to make same day changes without paying a fare difference really geared toward business travelers that sometimes have last minute changes in their travel plans. now, passengers and all classes of service will still get 2 free checked bags with their ticket. and apple is preparing a hardware subscription service for could launch as soon as the end of this year. bloomberg reports the service will allow custo

still going up for 2023 and i'm looking right now as i'm looking at the camera and i'm looking at ed yardeny's chart after we announced the ban on russian oil from march 3rd to march 10th, estimates on the s&p 500 earnings went up okay that flies in the face of the mid-cycle slowdown or -- >> maybe the forecasters are delusional >> okay. sure maybe we can stand on our heads and -- hey, look, it's the estimate, scott. what do you want me to do? you want me to make up numbers i'm not going to make up numbers. >> how many people have come out and taken down their estimates and the earnings and the s&p 500 price target for this year >> the numbers are meaningless. >> who cares they're not meaningless and who cares? if costin, lowers his numbers and -- >> twice >> he's going up in 2023, isn't that what matters? isn't it the fact that earnings are still growing 2023 over 2022 and being revised up march 3rd to march 10th. i mean, listen, if i told you i thought the numbers you were using were delusional you'd cut my mike. what kind of comment is that earnings are the lifeblood [ laughter ] >> don't t

and doesn't this recent analysts no firm yardeni research estimates that the recent spike in gas prices. up to $2000 in annual cost to the typical household budget. now that's on top of another 1000 in additional costs for food. this year's expected will cruise vacation still a favorite choice among americans? triple a says 41% say they're considering a cruise in the future with millennials. even more eager over half say they're ready to return to the open seas. and aaa found 23% of americans considering a cruise in the next 2 years. well, southwest has a new air fare. it's called the one to get away. plus fair and that goes on sale the 2nd quarter. so this new class will all travelers to make same day changes without paying a fare difference really geared toward business travelers that sometimes have last minute changes in their travel plans. no passengers and all classes of service will still get 2 free checked bags with their ticket. and apple is preparing a hardware subscription service for iphones that could launch says the end of this year. bloomberg reports the service will allow

joining me now, ed yardeni. ed, you know, everyone at the fed is a hawk now. we're expecting rate hikes this year, next year and into an affinity so how do you explain this markets reaction the latino couple of weeks? >> well i think you brought up a good word and that's de globalization. the world is clearly becoming less integrated, russia has been basically made a pariah state. europe is trying to cut itself off from dependence on oil & gas coming out of russia, china's trying to figure out what side it's on. i think that the united states stands to benefit more than others from deglobalization and let's put a more neutral way, where we're likely to deal with it much better than the rest of the world. we still have the world's largest economy. it's extremely diversified. we have better tech than anybody else does, and so i think when global investors look around the world at all the opportunities, they feel most comfortable in the united states. china certainly has lost a lot because of the government's intervene in their market to such an extent with so ma

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we're just getting started erin browne and ed yardeni with actionable ideas for your money.atter of time before this amazing move from the lows collapses under the weight of too much worry, or is the market's newfound rezil yaenls now its greatest asset? let's ask dan greenhouse of solace

ed yardeni turning into one of the biggest bears writing in a note, this could be one of the most dangeroustony dwyer says it's important not to become too negative he joins us now. tony, always good to have you. are you sticking with the forecast that stocks will rally and recover into the end of the year >> into the end of the year, yes, i am. i don't think we're going to have a recession i think it's already one of the worst years. you know, we're already down 20% on the nasdaq comp as of today, i'm told the russell 2000 is down 20% the s&p 500 is down about 14%. so you're in a situation where the market is already down so much as you know, sara, we came into the year thinking it was going to be a tumultuous year on the back of monetary policy uncertainty, economic growth transition from buying stuff to doing stuff, which was going to lower production all those factors are in play, and you throw in this terrible situation in ukraine, and you get the kind of weakness that we have had but i think it's important at this point when the expectations for the fed are to hike so many times into

lng coal we told you yesterday joining us right now to talking about the impact on the economy, ed yardenianks for joining great to see you your take on impact of this elevated price of oil. >> well, i think that when we look at our economy before the war, that is going in the ukraine, we -- had a pretty good consensus view in inflationary boom, but consensus a result -- optimistic about inflation peaking maybe by spring gradually coming down to not 2% but maybe 3 to 4%, now as a result of horrible war in ukraine, we've seen commodity prices soar oil prices soar i think consensus now has to be that inflation is going to be higher, and more i persistent than before war i think a stag inflationary stagflationary skrierment higher inflation slower economic growth. >> does that -- a number of of economists taking expectations down nanz. dagen: lazar cutting estimates first half 2023 talk about a global recession your thoughts on impact as far as recession. i agree with nancy, it is a concern, before the war, i think very few people talking about possibility of recession also the spike in energ

nancy lazar has it 1%, yardeni has it at very fractional growth story, what is your take in terms of2022? how do you want to be allocating money. >> first quarter is going to be weaker part of that is because of omicron effects beginning of the year we are obviously, hopefully, going to be past that to some extent we should expect second third quarter o stronger on the economy, however corporate profits, the growth rate in corporate profits peaking doesn't mean declining going to be very, very strong growth rates will slow as we go through this year into next year. ultimate know we had very ease comparisons 2021 in early 2022, those comparisons have become much harder through the year investors should expect profits of growth decelerate through the year on top of that, not to sound bearish for a second here but we are going to see fed tightening at the same time witnessing combination slowing profit quite healthy but slowing profits growth fed raising rates very low but going up i don't think one should prepare for bear market one has to understand, the things the is going to slow fe