yellowhammer documents are a worst—case scenario.n take plans, take steps in order to mitigate any of those consequences. so far, the turbo—charging of no—deal planning is yet to change the government's own no—deal assessment. the number of convictions for rape has fallen to its lowest level since records began. the crown prosecution service says there has been a drop of nearly 30% — compared to last year. yet the number of allegations of rape being reported to the police is at an all time high. our home affairs correspondent june kelly has more. rebecca began a relationship with a man who lied to her that he was a police officer. in fact, he was a convicted criminal with a history of violence against women. she discovered this after he attacked her. he just went into a complete frenzy and that's when he started to physically assault me. he was punching me in the back of the head about four or five times. he tried to bite my hand, and then the violence just escalated, and that was when it progressed on to raping me. he then held her

i was going to say, yellowhammer., care homes, petrol, whatever. as it worst—case scenario, base case scenario cosmic are best worst—case scenario cosmic are best worst—case scenario cosmic are best worst—case scenario cosmic orjust really bad cosmic so this is labelled. this is the thing that the government that heard, published last night in response to that vote in the commons a couple of nights earlier. and it is badged the reasonable worst—case planning assumptions as of the 2nd of august. to address that point, this document is something very, very close to it was leaked to the sunday times a couple of weeks ago and the reporter said, the thing i had was pretty much the same thing, partly top which talked about a base scenario, which is a whitehall speakerfor the middle scenario, which is a whitehall speaker for the middle of the doomometer. winners worst—case scenario is near the very end. —— winners worst—case scenario is now the very end. when i put this to seven last night, the implication was that there wer

we've got this part of the yellowhammer stuff.he refusal to publish texts and other stuff. let's get to it otherwise we are going to run out of opportunity to talk about this. let's go to that one. this is where an attempt has been made to get at the documents that will illuminate the documents that will illuminate the decision and what the motivation for the decision to suspend parliament was, but the government has said we can't do it. i was think about what's up messages and having seen a few of the last couple of year so was actually how much people do put into texts and e—mails and things —— whatsapp. much people do put into texts and e—mails and things —— whatsapplj would just get on the phone rather than put stuff in writing. but these times in test front page story revolves around what is the reason to prorogue or suspend parliament had of the queen speeds ahead of the desire to stop legislation or debate about exit —— desire to stop legislation or debate about exit -- queen's speech, or was it simply what governments do a

document. —— this yellowhammer document.this is a reasonable scenario but the reading and it is pretty stark. a lot of it focusing on will happen on that 20 mile stretch between dover and calais, and the impact on what it will have on supplies of things like medicine, fresh food. why that? because three quarters of medicine comes through the straight and it relies on things moving very quickly. this report, it suggests that there could be delays of between 1.5—2 days at dover. if you have lots of lorries backing up, that creates other problems like fuel shortages if, for example, you get lorries backing up to the m25 and obstructing the dartford crossing. 0ther and obstructing the dartford crossing. other things as well. away from trade flow, things like northern ireland. the yellowhammer document says this thing of not putting any checks on the border is unsustainable and you could have more criminal activity. the government does say that these assumptions are updated frequently and it doesn't tend to publish an updated set

the fallout over the operation yellowhammer revelations as the people read all about the dire consequences of them. of a no deal breaks a parts johnsonon still resists opposition calls to recall the- pro wrote. or suspended parliament you can't have missed is also denying. that he lied to the british queen. of the reasons for holding that fight week suspension. democrats head to hehead in the united statess joe biden elizabeth warren. bernie sanders leading the field well they are neck and neck in the opinion polls. not khan stands by his political allies in legal hot water we shop at home is chaharged w with conflict of interest over a property deal involving his wife it's an embarrassment the macro. to selected collection to clean up public life . thank you very much for being with us operation yellowhammer thehe revelations we first brought you exactly twenty four hours ago continues to dominate the headlines opposition mps in the u. k. calling for the parliament to be. recalled her reactions already been ruled unlawful by at least one court of law. the revelations of a lack of preparat

we've had so many messages from you about 0peration yellowhammer.ld not fall for this poor summary as being the real documents, in one tweet, and if thatis real documents, in one tweet, and if that is all they have, they are mooring competent and i thought they were. haley says, is this the worst case? at least the government are preparing and labour has a new weapon. stop scaremongering and let borisjohnson get on with getting us out of the eu. don't forget many people think borisjohnson is right and back all the way. paul says it is not the worst case scenario, the poor off will be the worst affected while thejohnson disaster capitalist chums are set to make 8 billion from brexit. it explains why the men of the people, borisjohnson and jacob rees—mogg are so keen. wa ke and jacob rees—mogg are so keen. wake up, public, they pay, —— we pay, they make. the cogs of business will run as before, says one tweet, so just will run as before, says one tweet, sojust enjoy will run as before, says one tweet, so just enjoy yourself and take a step off the ham

the yellowhammer documents are a worst—case scenario.plans and take steps in order to mitigate any of those consequences. but a version of the same yellowhammer documents from the same day circulated to the scottish government was not headlined as being a worst—case scenario. in any event, the assessment is from a few weeks ago, not old, as originally claimed by the government, and so far the turbo—charging of no—deal preparations has not changed its own assessment. faisal islam, bbc news. earlier i spoke to charlie maclean—bristol, founder of crisis management firm plan b consultancy, about what he thought the impacts of a no—deal brexit would be. i think what we'll find is that the sort of very obvious things might be planned for. i hope they're going to be planned for. like the supermarkets getting food. there is not going to not be food. so i think that planning will help. i think what will end up a little bit like the response... remember the fukushima tsunami, where it was very su btle fukushima tsunami, where it was very subtle th

do you accept that yellowhammer is not the worst case scenario?overnments answers are liesjust look at difficult when governments answers are lies just look at worst—case scenario. if you lose trust you lose everything. the department of health system as pa rt everything. the department of health system as part of —— at the proms do everything appropriate to prepare for brexit for that we want to reassure patients that we should be fully prepared for living on october the 31st, whatever the circumstances. should. we are taking all appropriate steps, meaning our plans should ensure the supply of medicines and medical products remains uninterrupted when we leave the eu possible is that reassuring enough? you can always read into these statements the opposite if you're determined to do that. i'm content with that. i can understand why paul and dan and people who are directly affected are nervous and i would urge them to work closely with theirgps and the would urge them to work closely with their gps and the health services. we are. and i cant reassu

i was going to be back yellowhammer. cerberus lied to the queen? with the yellowhammer then, we have project hysteria. it is overplayed, everyone has a right to know the content and the worst possible scenario, that's not hyped up. some and i have talked to civil serva nts up. some and i have talked to civil servants who have worked on yellowhammer, because i personally know some of them. absolutely. they're saying it is not hysteria but they are doing theirjob to be prepared for anything and when this document was put together and when they put the analysis together, it was not supposed to be in the public arena. salyer100% right. it is the way people presented. and it needed to be done. —— people present it. it is the way you label it and the way you put it. this is a horrible headline, i don't like it at all. it's a ghastly headline. we will know next week when the supreme court deals with — in london— that's on tuesday. that is the real deal. scottish law is different. this is the highest court in scotland. i know it is. it is the real deal too

do we talk today about yellowhammer?or the government's prepared effort for getting ready, care homes, petrol stations, hospitals, whatever. is it worst case scenario, worstest case scenario, base case? which of these, please? or just really bad? this is what the government published last night in response to that vote in the commons a couple of nights earlier, and it's badged "hmg, her majesty's government, reasonable worst case planning assumptions of 2nd august," but to address that point you're making, adam, this document or something very, very close to it was leaked to the sunday times a couple of weeks ago and the reporter in question said, "hang on a minute, the thing i had was pretty much the same thing" apart from the top, which talked about a base scenario, which is kind of whitehall—speak for the middle — on the doomometer, the middle of the "it'll be fine—it'll be horrific. base is somewhere in the middle where it a reasonable worst case scenario is pretty near the horrific end. now, i don't know what conver

what was in the yellowhammer report, not going to happen. get a deal, and i'm very hopeful that we will get a deal with our european friends on october 17 or 18th or thereabouts, but if we have to come out on october 31 with no deal, we will be ready, and the ports will be ready and the farming communities will be ready, and all the industries that matter will be ready for a no—deal brexit. those cabinet ministers who walked out in large part because of their concerns mrjohnson was talking —— taking us towards no deal have this morning continue to express their serious concerns about the impact on the economy and society should relieve with no deal, warning that, yes, you can put in place measures to minimise some of the damage, but you can't stop all of it. this was david gauke. the idea that you can prepare yourself out of all the disruption, the short term disruption, the short term disruption of no deal, isn't true, and of course you've got the long term issues as well. people might think, oh, it will be difficult for a couple of weeks,

also in the last few minutes, the government has published its operation yellowhammer "reasonable worstanning assumptions" in the event of a no—deal brexit, in response to mps voting for it to happen. our political editor laura kuenssberg sent this from westminster. judgment day. in scotland's court of session, a clear verdict on borisjohnson. each opinion expresses the view that the advice given by the government to her majesty the queen to prorogue parliament from 9 september to 1a october was unlawful and that therefore, the prorogation itself is unlawful. in plain language, thejudges concluded number ten broke the law by telling the queen they wanted to suspend parliament for a break before unveiling their plans for government. cheering. when opposition mps, jubilant at the ruling, suspected, in fact, they wanted to close down parliament to avoid difficult questions on brexit. for every moment parliament remains prorogued, the british government are breaking the law. so we, as politicians, are calling for a parliament to be recalled, so that we can get on with scrutinising what this

the thing about yellowhammer, looks, it isa the thing about yellowhammer, looks, it is a planning assumption process of, what could happen if there was a no—deal brexit, and of course we don't want that, we are trying to get a deal, but if there is, what is the worst case or even normal scenarios, and then what do we do about it. every day, meetings in government, has beenin day, meetings in government, has been in months, four, ok, let's paint the worst case scenario, let's paint the worst case scenario, let's painta paint the worst case scenario, let's paint a normal scenario which we think is likely, and then do something about it. that is the bit that seems to be missing from some of the reporting that says, if we sit back and accept it. except, it does say, looking at the document, it does say," hmg, reasonable worst case planning assumptions. so, it is not saying if catastrophe strikes, this is a reasonable assumption to make" of what is going to happen. this is a reasonable assumption to make" of what is going to happenlj don't make" of what is going to happen.” don't disagree with th

we will hear the so—called yellowhammer later on.at the attorney general gave to cabinet and to the prime minister about the prorogation of parliament. he is looking to see whether he will publish that. mps wa nt to whether he will publish that. mps want to see the details of what would happen in a no deal scenario, i spoke to one labour mp. she said she is worried about the ports and how medicines will come in. they wa nt how medicines will come in. they want more detail about all of that if that's where we're heading, depending on what borisjohnson does. boris johnson will stand up in the commons sometime after 4pm, all eyes on him. we don't know what he will say. he might make an announcement about bringing forward this for an election, but that is trying to put labour on the back foot, trying to say tojeremy corbyn, you have called for an election for months. but before that, does he apologise?|j election for months. but before that, does he apologise? i don't think he will. we don't know what he said to the queen when he had to

also operation yellowhammer.is going on is a kind of battle between parliament and the executive. boris johnson has made it his absolute certainty, his promise to the conservative members who voted him m, conservative members who voted him in, his promise to brexiteers and the hardline eurosceptics that have basically taken over his party. my concern is that there is no ability to be in any way flexible and actually, politics is about the art of the possible. what happens if they could be a deal struck but it was november the second 7 they could be a deal struck but it was november the second? by the way he is acting, it would be ignored and it would go out and we would have wto rules. my concern is this has become a face—saving situation. there is no way that they would actually be an extension, even if it is the most logical and beneficial thing for this country. what you think about the argument on the part of some mps, dominic grieve who was a conservative party member that his weapon was removed because he w

the yellowhammer documents are a worst—case scenario.s to mitigate any of those consequences. but a version of the same yellowhammer documents from the same day circulated to the scottish government was not headlined as being a worst—case scenario. in any event, the assessment is from a few weeks ago, not old, as originally claimed by the government and so far the turbo—charging of no deal preparations has not changed its own assessment. faisal islam, bbc news. 0ur europe editor katya adlerjoins me now. katya... on 315t of a cupboard so close, any deal has to be done by the 17th of october, is it possible? it depends who we should believe because the prime minister says he is working flat out to get a deal with the eu but today we heard from the chief brexit negotiator from the eu who said, there are no grounds for optimism. the thing is, is he being fair? the main envoy for the prime minister is shuttling backwards and forwards to brussels twice a week at the moment, but because he has not yet put a concrete uk proposal on the table, ho

electrical reaction to the release of operation yellowhammer documents. —— political.hris mason is at westminster. light rather than heat, what's the extent of what's released in these documents? it is quite stark, the detail in this document. there's a i’ow detail in this document. there's a row about the extent to which this isa row about the extent to which this is a worst—case scenario, this document is badged, or it might be closer to a middle ground scenario on the worry—ometer about what no—deal might look like, because the league to the sunday times a couple of weeks ago was similar to this but it was described as a base scenario, a middle scenario, rather than this, a middle scenario, rather than this, a more worrying thing. at least the government is entertaining the prospect of this kind of reaction or consequence of a no—deal brexit. a couple more details you referred to a minute ago, the suggestion that on day one after a no—deal brexit, up to 85% of lorries travelling between dover and calais, either underground on the eurotunnel or on ferries, might not

we talk to them about yellowhammer.the government's prepared effort for getting ready, care homes, hospitals. the worst case scenario, base case scenario. which of these, please. just really bad? this is what the government published last night and response to the vet comments vote earlier and the majesty possible as governor, was case planning assumptions but to address the point, this was something very close to it, it was a couple weeks ago that the reporter in question said hang on a minute, is very much the same thing apart from the top, base scenario which is the middle of the doom thermometer. they somewhere in the middle where it was a reasonable worst case scenario, putting the other to an end. i don't know what conversations you've been having with various people, but when i put this to some last night, the implication was that there are lots of documents that circulate around westminster and it is possible that there could be two that are circulating are slightly different times are different titles to them.

it has been said the yellowhammer document which was prepared through july, is yellowhammer document is not really relevant anymore. that is the line government ministers can use but can you enlighten us with what has been said since the document, that would be the follow—up to that. whether or not it is outdated, opposition mps would clearly like to have it at their disposal. thanks forjoining us. in the commons at the moment they are discussing a crucial issue, a sub—issue in a way, because we are waiting for the vote of the general election, but they are discussing northern ireland at the moment, and if there were a new deal, northern ireland being without an executive, it would be critical to put something in place, and maybe there would have to be direct rule in northern ireland but the problem is if you introduce legislation to do that it would be amendable. the government is resisting putting any new legislation in. it is not a good time at the moment when you don't have a majority to be tidying up in the house of commons for all the problems it could cause for boris johnson.

we will talk a little bit more about yellowhammer now.be to happen. would you like them to be planning for it, though? we have to know what it truly is because we we re know what it truly is because we were told in august it was a baseline assessment. we are now told this is a reasonable worst—case. i hate to think what a worst case would look like. this is going to be devastating. if those trucks are trapped for 2.5 days, addison's and perishable goods and goods for our manufacturing base will be absolutely disrupted —— medicines. this is a catastrophic failure of our economy if this comes to fruition. and for borisjohnson to try and keep this information from us try and keep this information from us in the first instance, but to deliberately crush the ships on the rock —— this ship on the rocks is absolutely beyond imagination. he wa nts to absolutely beyond imagination. he wants to discount this, say it isn't releva nt, wants to discount this, say it isn't relevant, it came from the government. we take this enormously seriously and you

mrjohnson said the yellowhammer files were only a worst—case scenario.ellowhammer in a moment, but first here's our political correspondent, jessica parker. the prime minister in london to talk shipbuilding. he hopes his brexit plans won't be sunk. could no—deal planning documents that raise the possibilities of protests, a decrease in certain fresh foods and a disruption to medical supplies steer him off course? what you're looking at here is just the sensible preparations, the worst—case scenario, that you expect any government to do. in reality, we will certainly be ready for a no—deal brexit if we have to do it, and i stress again that's not where we intend to end up. it comes after scotland's highest civil court ruled that the advice to the queen on the suspension of parliament was unlawful, raising questions over whether boris johnson misled the monarch. there's going to be a further adjudication by the supreme court and we should wait and see what they say. did you lie to the queen when you advised her to prorogue, to suspend parliament? absolutel

the yellowhammer documents are a worst—case scenario.ke steps in order to mitigate any of those consequences. so far though, the turbo—charging of no—deal planning is yet to change the government's own no—deal assessment. faisal islam, bbc news. i'm nowjoined by charlie maclean—bristol, founder and director of plan b consulting, a firm specialising in emergency planning and crisis management. thank you for being with us. the government keeps saying this is a worst—case scenario. government keeps saying this is a worst—case scenario. in your experience come is that wise and sensible to do, worst—case planninguk? i think what the problem we have to do is those that are planning for brexit need to have something to plan against. because the problem is a little bit if you say i think 80% of lorries will get through, and use i say 20%, we could spend a lot of time arguing about who is right there. and we can waste our energy on trying to the side. so i think the government has to give us i think the government has to give us something to plan

he turned to the leak of operation yellowhammer.ting what a reasonable worst—case scenario anticipating what a reasonable worst—case scenario might involve. and how we can then mitigate any risks. operation yellowhammer assumptions are not a prediction of what is likely to happen. they are not a base case scenario or a list of probable outcomes. they are projections of what may happen in a worst—case scenario. projections of what may happen in a worst—case scenario. and they are designed to help other men take the necessary steps to ensure that we can all be ready in every situation. and since the new government was formed at the end ofjuly, we can be ready in every situation and can accelerate brexit preparations. labour turn to what was not in his statement. no mention of medical supplies but in the last 24—hour 's, serious health leaders have warned that no deal could directly result in medicals shortages, effective treatment for uk nationals in europe and exacerbate the already difficult nhs crisis. it has been reported, hasn't

yellowhammer?exit, this is technology companies looking to set up technology companies looking to set up here, and... we were saying fair, i would have expected it to come up a lot more, with anybody looking at this, they would think, aren't they panicked, what is wrong with them? they are not the kind of companies, these tech companies. some of them will be manufacturing, text is not just mean digital, some of them are looking at manufacturing products here in the uk. the benefits they see, you might say, they are misinformed, they are not watching this channel long enough, often enough, but in actual fact, this channel long enough, often enough, but in actualfact, i this channel long enough, often enough, but in actual fact, i would have expected them to do research. it does surprise me that it did not come up. are you concerned? no, we are in financial services, it is a lot easier for us to handle it, and if we were in manufacturing with trucks. and also, as an sme, we are leaving it to professi

that is the thing about yellowhammer today, which is we have to remember the government has suspendedthe elected representatives so that they are not going to be scrutinised in the way they would have been in parliament if parliament had been, as it should be today, still setting. mps who don't quite go in for this military discipline forced boris johnson to publish these no—deal assessments. could the supreme court next week force him to recall parliament? the captain ofa force him to recall parliament? the captain of a ship is not always in control. jessica parker, bbc news. our assistant political editor norman smith is at westminster. how much difficulty is the prime minister in, do you think?“ how much difficulty is the prime minister in, do you think? if you had a usual prime minister who had been accused overnight of misleading mps, of breaking the law, having been forced to publish a government report warning of riots and food shortages and telling porkies to the queen, he would imagine they would emerge broken, humbled crushed individual. not so borisjohnson. he emerged chara

faisal islam discussed the yellowhammer papers.e worst—case scenarios and based on out of date information and there will be an update soon. but if any part of this was a real risk, and it is admitted there could be, many people would ask, how could it be right in principle to shut parliament for five weeks. whatever happens in the supreme court next week, whatever happens with brexit or the election that's coming, or any conceivable election soon, the splits in this country, that have torn britain from top to bottom, will not and cannot heal any time soon. john pienaar, deputy political editor, with his analysis after this rather significant day. and that's it from westminster tonight. in just a few days' time, the uk supreme court will make a vitally important ruling on whether these houses of parliament were suspended lawfully or not. but for now, let's join reeta for the day's other news. shareholders in the company sports direct have made clear their unhappiness with its founder mike ashley — by voting in large numbers against

no—deal would be catastrophic, yellowhammer has confirmed that to us.ions... the government's own report. ..about what might happen to the economy after a no—deal brexit, we'll get to that. but let us just stick to this notion. you've just said, "my first priority is the economic interests in my constituents." surely your first priority ought to be the health of british democracy. i have to say, if we allow no—deal, if we allow borisjohnson his no—deal, which is his preference, you know, the reason amber rudd finally resigned and resigned the whip also, notjust her role, was because she said she could see very little effort going into getting a deal at all and the prime minister and the government and cabinet were spending all their time looking at no—deal. we've seen how damaging no—deal will be to the economy. you haven't addressed my question, you've come back to your position that no deal is very dangerous but listen to michael gove and others who say quite clearly, i'm going to quote gove, but many others, borisjohnson, have said it, "if we fail to

we have of course to prepare for every eventuality and that is the function of operation yellowhammerow we can then mitigate any risks. the operation yellowhammer assumptions are not a prediction of what is likely to happen, nota prediction of what is likely to happen, not a base case scenario or list of probable outcomes but projections of what may happen in a worst—case scenario. projections of what may happen in a worst—case scenario. they're designed to help government take the necessary steps to ensure we can all be ready in every situation. since the new government was formed at the end ofjuly the new government was formed at the end of july new the new government was formed at the end ofjuly new structures have been put in place to make sure we can be ready in every situation and can accelerate preparations for exit. to the new cabinet committees have been set up to discuss negotiating strategies and make operational decisions about exit respectively. they meet every working day to expedite preparations for the exit and we are in regular contact with colleagues in devolved admi

no answer to the two decisions this house is already made today concerning the publication of yellowhammers prime minister in respect of laws agreed. the prime ministerfailing we seem to grasp that opposition benches have been cleared... laughter. the house, mr speaker, has expressed its well until the act has been complied with and no deal has been taken off the table, no deal taken off the table, we will not vote to support the dissolution of this house and they general election. now, i want and election, mr speaker, as the prime minister pointed out, and the conservative party has very generallyjust macro generously broadcast footage of me and my friend saying we want an election. i don't retreat from that at all —— friends. we are eager for an election. but as keen as we are, we are not prepared to risk inflicting the disaster of no deal on us, inflicting the disaster of no deal on us, oui’ inflicting the disaster of no deal on us, our communities, ourjobs, oui’ on us, our communities, ourjobs, our services, or, on us, our communities, ourjobs, ourservices, or, indeed, our rights. mr s

is how do i read this yellowhammer? this is kind of worst-case scenario.uld be better, it could be worse. >> there is nothing incredibly startling in this report. some of it was coming out already last month. you put it all together in a document boris johnson did not want released. andpart of it was redacted reports say that involves oil prices. it really undermines his assertions that a no deal exit would not be the equivalent, essentially, to one apocalypse, that it would actually be ok. lawmakers have moved in parliament to avoid a no deal brexit but we will see the public concern about that rise. managing those public expectations is really the key. francine: what does it mean for the possibility of no deal brexit? would this force the government to cool off? they can break the law. even if parliament does not want a no deal, they could go ahead. >> boris johnson seems to want this on the table no matter what. he's convinced that having this in his back pocket will help his strategy of dealing with the eu in the coming weeks. hit much more than theres

on operation yellowhammer, i was just talking to the leader of plaid cymru in westminster who said they trump card? how would that work? it essentially compels the government to put the releva nt compels the government to put the relevant information before the house. the question is whether or not prorogation means that they get some wriggle room or not or whether they have to wait until the 14th of october to put it before the house. 0f october to put it before the house. of course, it is embarrassing regardless of whether or not when it ends up being published, it means that the government can no longer say, "oh, look, this isjust project fear and scaremongering from outside." these are things signed off by boris johnson outside." these are things signed off by borisjohnson the no dealer in chief. we are heading for key dates, so it is worth reminding ourselves and viewers of what those dates are. parliament will close today until the 14th of october. we then have the eu summit on the 17th and 18th of october. the 19th of october is when borisjohnson will have to go to the eu to ask

the document is code—named operation yellowhammer. find online right now if you wa nt to you can find online right now if you want to read the whole thing. it was prepared by the civil service, and outline what it calls "the reasonable worst case assumptions". here's some of the detail. here are some of the headlines as a document is being released. the supply of medicines will be impacted, it goes on to say there may be protests and counter protests gci’oss may be protests and counter protests across the uk, and may absorb large amounts of police resources. chris masonjoins me from westminster. what else have you picked out? it's really just start, that's the what else have you picked out? it's reallyjust start, that's the most striking thing when you look at this. —— stark. the government has described this as not a prediction, but a reasonable worst—case scenario. it talks about the prospect of riots, lori is having to wait up to two and a half days to cfoss wait up to two and a half days to cross between dover and calais —— lorrie

the so—called yellowhammer contingency plan outlines what the government calls the reasonable worst—caseor a no—deal brexit, but voices from the opposition and the business community say the document confirms what they have been saying will happen in the event of a disorderly brexit. our political correspondent chris mason reports. parliament forced the government to publish this document which, until now, was categorised as official, sensitive. ministers insist it's not a prediction but what they'd call a reasonable worst—case scenario, a deliberately stretching context to ensure that we are prepared and they insist we are now vastly better prepared. but make no mistake, this is stark stuff. certain types of fresh food supply will decrease, it says, which will cut choice and put up says, which will cut choice and put up prices. it also suggests there could be rain it's. protests and counter protests will take place gci’oss counter protests will take place across the uk, it says. lorries could have to wait more than two days to cross the channel. passengers could be delayed on the eu ros

we will get to yellowhammer which is the report that makes predictions about what might happen to the your first priority is the economic ‘s —— economic and security of your constituents. surely it should be a healthy democracy. the reason he resigned the web as well was she could see no effort going into getting a deal and the government and cabinet were spending all their time looking at no deal. we have seen how damaging it would be to the economy. you haven't addressed my question, you have come back to your point that no deal is very dangerous but listen to michael gove and many others have said it," if we fail to deliver on the clear verdict backed by 17.4 million people who voted to leave the eu, it would be a fatal blow to faith in democracy". you argue for a new politics which isn't about tribalism or party but about real, recent debate. is there no pa rt real, recent debate. is there no part of you that can see what michael gove is saying? new politics has to be honest. it has to tell the public what the risks are and that is the entire reason there are many of us and i susp

let's move away from the yellowhammer and the impact of brexit, let's talk about us china incrementals? yes, we have had both sides in this dispute indicating they are either going to remove ta riffs they are either going to remove tariffs or delay the imposition. president trump was looking at an increase of 5% on $250 billion worth of chinese goods. he has delayed that by two weeks. maybe that is not a hugely significant move, but symbolically, that combined with china's decision not to go ahead with some additional tariffs, does perhaps lighten the mood a bit ahead of some talks the two sides are planning. we have seen this before, easing off of tensions ahead of talks and then it all. and when it gets to the crunch point? we have seen so many gets to the crunch point? we have seen so many false dawns and that is reflected in the fact that markets like what they heard, they are not cracking open the champagne to celebrate. they are notjumping up and down with joy at the moment and probably not for some time. we have those talks to come in the next few weeks and we will see if there

let's talk about operation yellowhammer and the other political developments?r documents, they are the no deal preparations, the details of which were leaked several weeks ago and the possibility of no deal, there will be a shortage of food, fuel, medicines, majorsnarl there will be a shortage of food, fuel, medicines, major snarl ups there will be a shortage of food, fuel, medicines, majorsnarl ups at the dover calais crossing. parliament pressed a motion to force the government to publish those documents by iipm tonight. all the signs are, they are not going to be published. we had from andrea leadsome this morning arguing, in effect that they will not be published because they will cause panic. she said they were a worse case scenario and there was no point concerning people and preparations had moved on and that these were, as i say, worst—case predictions. the difficulty parliament has got is parliament is not sitting, so there is no obvious mechanism for parliament to force mrjohnson to comply with its wishes. i suspect that will compound the unease, the

dr david nicol, a consultant urologist involved in the operation yellowhammer report into the impactmogg show to ask what "mortality rate" he would accept if the uk crashed out of the eu without a deal. this is dr david nichol. i'm a consultant urologist. i was actually involved in yellowhammer and drafting the plans of mitigation for a no—deal brexit in march. my question to you, really, having been involved in writing the plans of mitigation, having whistle—blown as i felt they were unsafe, what level of mortality rate are you willing to accept in the light of a no—deal brexit? well, i don't think there is any reason to suppose that a no—deal brexit should lead to a mortality rate. i think this is the worst excess of project fear and i'm surprised that a doctor in your position would be fear—mongering in this way on public radio. can i remind you, i wrote the plans of mitigation? in mitigation? you didn't write very good plans if you haven't worked out how to mitigate, have you? it's fortunate they are being written by other people now who are serious about mitigating rather than r

k. the latest on operation at yellowhammer that's the planning for the doe deal brags to whistle the field in the press couple days ago. and the u. k. and now the documents that the mps of cool full to be released appararently show thats a premise in britain f for that no deal breaks it should happen that way i remains at a low level and most people e seem to predicting that. the only kind of out. it seems to be out on the table this present moment in time and certainly the outcome that's a promise to boris johnson appears to be pushing for a given the way he's handling matters right now. consider rap and painful toto each. grief as spoken to a sea of france twenty four you can season two in full. to twenty fifteen. paris time he's the insightt into the e situatin of course that comes out before. this latest revelation about the documents have been released witcher. actually predictingng a drug and food shortages as well as public disorder in the u. k. keep your costs will. development some will have a more analysis very shortly. next the united states has remember the victims of the

mean for the uk economy if they are good to their word and they publish the details around the yellowhammerich because they are obliged to do after the motion published this evening. we will be back with you i'm sure because in the next few minutes we think prime minister borisjohnson will speak... there is the live feed from the house of commons, looking low— key from the house of commons, looking low—key but it will start to fill up. it would be the last vote for a number of weeks, a vote on whether the prime minister gets his way and gets an election in mid—october, but we can't find anyone who is expecting him to get that but the vote will still happen and you never know until you get the numbers. the prime minister making the case that he needs to do this because mps have removed no deal is an option which undercuts his ability to negotiate with the eu. let's reflect on what where there is no saint you have to stop no—deal brexit leaves the prime minister. it says if there is no deal in place by october the 19th the prime minister has got to write to the european union and ask for an e

in the times back in august, they first came to the public with 0peration yellowhammer, with independentdvice about what no deal would be like. and then they talked about riots. now we're talking about senior cabinet ministers telling the today that the country risks a violent uprising if a second referendum overturned the results of the first one. so riots either way, by the looks of things, in terms of what people are being advised. yes, and the language doesn't help, right? because people feel what they are seeing is very fuelled and strong language, using the same sort of language on the streets. a lot of people have said this over the last couple of years, since the referendum, that the public did vote. they were asked, they voted, and the fact is, and this is coming from someone who voted to remain, the fact is they voted, although they didn't know what brexit means, it was a very poor referendum and wasn't very well thought out. but the fact is that this has always been a huge risk. and it would be terrible if on our streets we see something like the gilets jaunes, and riots. that

the fallout over the operation yellowhammer revelations as the people read all about the dire consequencesthem. of a no deal breaks a parts johnsonon still resists opposition calls to recall the- pro wrote. or suspended parliament you can't have missed is also denying. that he lied to the british queen. of the reasons for holding that fight week suspension. democrats head to hehead in the united statess joe biden elizabeth warren. bernie sanders leading the field well they are neck and neck in the opinion polls

a call to get the documents for yellowhammer, the government's information about what a no—deal brexitemergency debate. talk us through what might happen. i have passed three, dominic grieve and jeremy corbyn have picked down applications for an emergency debate. the use to be incredibly rare, but not anymore. they have been used and the speaker has allowed them and made them much more meaningful in the past by allowing them to have a meaningful vote attached to them. we will have to see. there is speculation that what dominic grieve is trying to do get published the prorogation, the suspension of parliament details and as you say, so so called yellowhammer, the preparations for a no—deal brexit. you want to get that somehow published. jeremy corbyn wa nts to somehow published. jeremy corbyn wants to talk about the prime minister of being are disobeying the law. because prorogation is coming tonight, this could be tricky for mps. even if they debate it, the government could ignore it because they are now going off until the 14th of october. it could be a whole month until we are back h

government is seeking to circumvent the release of documents relating to prorogation and operation yellowhammer, can you explain the ways that the government can lay those papers and given that the house has passed us by majority the house has passed us by majority the government should release the information. i'm sorry that some people in response to the rising of the honourable gentleman yelled, yawn and i wonder if people observing our proceedings think that isa observing our proceedings think that is a proper weight from one colleague to show respect for another. it is a matter of serious issue raised and responsibility being incumbent upon the chair in this case to seek to respond. it is not yawn but serious politics. in the honourable gentleman raised a very legitimate point in the simple a nswer very legitimate point in the simple answer is that the government must comply with the humble address passed by the house. that is the reality of the matter. the debate has happened, a decision has been made. and it is incumbent upon the government to comply manifestly with what has been decided

we have seen with the leaked operation yellowhammer report what it would mean for problems with goodsng across the straits between dover and calais, the government has talked about potential shortages of medicine, food prices, farmers saying it would be devastating for them if there is a no—deal brexit. so that is the principal purpose of the bill. and i think i watch the prime minister's marks on the steps of downing street a moment ago, and to try and claim that somehow mps would want to prevent all of those things from being inflicted on the country, for which incidentally he has no mandate, is somehow undermining his negotiations, is nonsense. the former prime minister for over two yea rs former prime minister for over two years said, no deal is better than a bad deal, that did not work then, why it should work now completely eludes me. and the other point is, are they really serious negotiations taking place? just last weekend, mrs merkel said, we are getting on for a third of the way through the 30 days that i gave to borisjohnson and the government has come forward with no prop

the document, relating to what's called 0peration yellowhammer, suggests there could be riots, food pricees and a reduction in the supply of medicines. parliament forced the government to publish this document, which, until now, was categorised as official, sensitive. it has some stark warnings, saying that certain types of fresh food supply will decrease, and that no—deal would reduce the availablity and choice of products, and increase prices. also, low—income groups will be disproportionatley affected by any price rises. the document also warns that regional traffic disruption caused by border delays could affect fuel distrubution, wwhich would disrupt fuel supply in london and the south—east. 0ur political correspondent chris mason has more. here are the pages released by the british government tonight. and i think what's really striking about it is that, yes, they set out those pretty grim situations that they are not predicting, but that they are imagining as a worst—case scenario. but i think the most striking thing of all is that this is a situation that the uk government could vo

the guardian leads on the publication of those yellowhammer contingency plans — writing that a no—dealresult in rising food and fuel prices, disruption to medicine supplies and public disorder on britain's streets. meanwhile, the telegraph claims tory rebels who were expelled from the party have been offered an "olive branch" by the prime minister, as he's apparently allowed them to appeal the withdrawal of the whip. the paper also features news that british scientists have discovered the first planet warm and wet enough to support life. so that's a look at the front pages. now, let's look in more detail. caroline, why don't you take us to the guardian, first of all, because this is a story that i think may look a little familiar to you. over it, carolyn, this is your story. so this is based, the document that was released today is very familiar to me, because just coming up to three weeks ago, the sunday times was leaked a copy of the yellow hammer documents, which looks surprisingly similar to the one which has been published today. i'll for one particular phrase, which has been chan

order to avoid any questioning of what he is doing or not doing, simply to avoid discussion about yellowhammer to avoid any discussion about the proposals he has or hasn't or do or don't exist that have been put to the european union. mr speaker, this government is a disgrace and the way the prime minister operates is a disgrace. jeremy corbyn, leader of the opposition ending that there. with me is our news reporter gareth barlow. a lot of people will be asking, this isa a lot of people will be asking, this is a crucial time, why is the government for a road? the line from the government is that this suspension is needed is because it has been such a long session. one of the longest in the history of the uk parliament was that they say alongside brexit it is still business as usual, there is still a country to run and we need this break to set up their plans, their legislations, the laws of the forthcoming year. what they will do is suspend parliament, and give it as though it's the end of a school term and then they will go off and make plans for the next term. they need five weeks, they will

order to avoid any questioning of what he is doing or not doing, simply to avoid discussion about yellowhammeravoid any discussion about the proposals he has or hasn't or do or don't exist that have been put to the european union. mr speaker, this government is a disgrace and the way the prime minister operates is a disgrace. leader of the opposition jeremy corbyn. with me is our news reporter gareth barlow. so the government lost that election, they wanted a snap election, they wanted a snap election but lost the vote. is that significant quest significant yes. it is the six vote that the government of borisjohnson has tabled and has lost. the opposition parties have said they don't trust the government. they don't want the government to dictate the time and terms of a general election. they wa nt terms of a general election. they want one at some point but won't let the government of borisjohnson to decide when it takes place. we saw mps from across the political spectrum, including some conservative mps either voting against or abstaining, meaning that the government did not get the require