chick fed president austan goolsbee.ht now. >>> good morning. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. live from the nasdaq market site in times square i'm steve liesman along with melissa lee and mike santoli. scott walkman joining us from the american express pga tour in southern california. joe, becky and andrew, i believe in the air, on the way back home from davos. we got the judge in the box here. u.s. equity futures this hour. actually strengthening a bit. up 200 on the dow. 134 on the nasdaq. 25 points on the s&p. and treasury yields look like they're better behaved this morning. we were 413, mike telling us, 417 overnight. come down a bit, and up earlier, that range, what's the two year? 435, 436? shares of spirit airlines jumping in the pre-market. the company raising its financial forecast for the fourth quarter expects revenue to come in at the high end of earlier forecasts thanks to strong end of year bookings. the company estimated adjusted margins of 12 to 13% and proven from an earlier margin forecast negati

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>> when you say soft landing and chicago fed president austan goolsbee commented it has never happenedn history. what we are talking about although it is possible, but not an easy thing to do, and to get to that soft landing, frank, the consumer is the most important part of it. it is the vast majority of what drives growth. it is a consumer not too hot or too cold. if the fed can't cut rates as much as discount it. that is a headwind for stocks. if the consumer slows down too fast, we have companies getting cautious and laying off workers and we see the unemployment rate rising and the fed may not react as fast as the market would react. you have risks on both sides. the data we are seeing so far suggests a consumer that is still resilient and just moderating. that is exactly what we want to see for the soft landing. it is not enough. we have need to see labor supply going up and come ppetition goi up. we also want to see commodity prices lower. that would help bring down inflation without destroying demand. oil, for the last two days, at least is going the wrong way. >> we are watchi

catch a cnbc exclusive conversation with the chicago fed president austan goolsbee coming up on "squawk>> a big day on tap with the futures in the green. dow would open up 85 points higher. the nasdaq hit a new record high. it will open up at that level right now. joining me now is dirk willer at citi. dirk, good morning. >> good morning, frank. thanks for having me on. >> i want to start off with the action on the pre-market. apple with the pre-market and the upgrade from boa. how does that make you feel about the markets? >> in general, we think it is a decent environment. the fundmamentals have been strong. recession talk has receded. citi has recession on the books, but there is little indication it will be an event we need to worry about right now. at the same time, there has been a back up in bonds, but that was to be expected after the aggressive pricing last year. we are going to see rate cuts in the big picture and be in a good spot. >> i want to continue the conversation today. how do you see today shaping up? what is your wex word of the day? >> the word of the day is hangove

. >>> chicago fed president dpoolz goo austan goolsbee told our coal here colleagues it is time to review. >> if we continue faster than forecast on inflation, we have to take that into account in the level of restrictiveness. we had a restrictive policy with rates relatively high because we wanted to get inflation back to target and that's where we have been missing on the dual mandate. the inflation rate coming down and as it does so, then we would clearly be evaluating the restr restrictiveness. >>> the ecb is set to meet this week believing the central bank will remain unchanged. goldman sachs did maintain its outlook for the first 25-basis point rate cut from the ecb to happen in april. that is with back-to-back cuts not happening until the deposit rate hits 2.25% which is anticipated in early 2025. >>> on the earnings front, it is earnings season which kickss ino gear with the results from netflix and how things are faring with regard to investment in that space. ericsson will have the numbers come out as well as tesla. of course, deliveries are significant to them and asml has numb

goolsbee that are over there now and they cut rates beginning in march all the way through the end of fed is an independent agency anymore. b larry: kevinus hassett. accelerate growth, predict trends, you need to begin with trust. introducing watsonx governance. helping you govern any ai, as data, models, and policies change, so you can scale it responsibly. let's create ai that begins with trust, with watsonx governance. ibm. let's create. larry: you know, this open astrophe down south is so important. i mean, i hope the republican senators really hold tight. there should be numerical caps on paroles, but i think there should be numerical caps on illegals, okay? we can worry about detaining

austan goolsbee, among the fed heads and the interest rates, the markets can get ahead of themselves rate cuts than the fed has s signaled. it's a little less bumpy now, but the wind at our back to hear the president of the united states tell it, referring to markets and good job numbers and will be relevant to american and obviously to americans by election day, at least he hopes so. lucas. >> for many americans the prices feel too high and every time they're going shopping, 40-year high from inflation two summers ago and despite that, the president thinks that things are going well. >> if you notice they feel much about thor what the economy is doing. but what we're not doing is letting them know who got it changed. that's happening. we look at the consumer confidence measures they're way up. look it across the board. >> so the president says it's a messaging issues there, now, president biden spoke in allentown, pennsylvania about an hour south of his hometown of scranton. biden visited this critical battle ground state more than any other outside of delaware of course since becom

goolsbee said, and that is coming down.'s bring in nate tuft. nate, thank you for joining us. let's talk about your view on whether the economy is going to slow markedly this year in the united states, and maybe even lapse into a recession. everybody seemed to be predicting it for 2023. it didn't happen. relatively fewer people are predicting it for 2024. that may mean it will happen. what do you think? >> i think the odds for a recession are probably a toss-up. that sounds like a copout, but the simple reality is, we are going to see slowing growth. that's not necessarily a bad thing from a market perspective. because as we know, there's a lot of debate going on around what central bank policy will do, as we see growth on top of the fact that inflation continues to be disinflationary. so we think at minimum, we are in an environment of slowing growth, but the growth in the u.s. is still reason wlably bet than the rest of the world. so the dynamics are still in favor of the united states when it comes to global growth being

. >> austan goolsbee was on "squawk box" and talked about, quote, a golden path of inflation and employment. do you think the fed has done a good job through all of this? >> i think they have. some people might say we were late to the game early on, but i think the moves they've made over the last six to nine months have been good. >> do you worry about the fed staying too tight for too long? there is an expectation, the rate cuts will come. it's just a matter of when, not if. there is that risk of a policy mistake. what do you think about it? >> the issue is, look, and i'm 65 years old. i remember when we actually had interest rates. the issue is zero rate environment, 1% rate environment. that wasn't normal. just being normal for what people got used to the last few years. i don't think the fed will make a mistake. i think they will be cautious. i think they will not bring rates down too quickly. and we'll see how it plays out. >> it sounds like you are firmly in the soft landing camp, if you had to make a call today. >> i'm in the soft landing camp. look, the reality is recessions do hap

meanwhile chicago fed president austan goolsbee in an exclusive interview sending less dovish or guardedr. >> inflation has come down a lot and i've been highlighting for months with you, steve, and elsewhere, that's the thing that everybody should be watching to determine what will the fed's rate path end up being. it's not about secret meetings or decisions. it's fundamentally about the data and what will enable us to become less restrictive. >> goolsbee said 2023 was a good year for the fed in what he calls the golden path of bringing down inflation without spiking the unemployment rate and good growth. he declined to say how much or when the fed would cut and went so far to say the fed could hike rates if inflation reversed course. >> if inflation was not tamed, if we started to get evidence we were not on path to get to 2%, rate increases would be back on the table. >> all right. even though goolsbee is equally dovish as the average fed official he joined the chorus of official trying to tamp down cults for this year. down now to 51% off their highs of nearly 80% following the decem

austan goolsbee from chicago comes to mind, point to that saying let's be more cautious here.point of view versus majority point of view. all view. all of that means that you'll hear them continue to use words like cautious, too early to declare victory, preparing to move nimbly if need be. i think this leaves them roughly where they were before, pushing back on the notion of many rate cuts this year starting early, but in no sense yet declaring victory on soft landing, because there are some things here that do suggest potentially a hard landing might be ahead of them as well. >> roger, when the number came out, i focused on the private sector number. is that the one you think that the fed is maybe a little bit more focused on for what it says about the economy? we have had this surge in government hiring as government, it appears, is trying to catch up with where it was before the pandemic. is that a better way to think about this number? and in light of that, don't you sort of come up with a less or a cooler job market than you would if you look at the topline number? >> we

fed speakers came out right after yards, austan goolsbee, hang on before you're off to the races?hat. attended to do that already. the toothpaste is out of the tube on this one. the market is anticipating rate cuts and it's really hard for the fed to push back on those rate cuts when they're own projections show 75 basis points of rate cut for this year. a little hard for them to be nuanced. they want to reflect back that inflation came down a lot. the six-month run rate on core pce, 1.9%. never this close to 2% since the fed started hiking. we've made a lot of progress. it's very hard for them to reflect that progress, reflect the fact they do expect 75 basis points in rate cuts based on their own projections and at the same time push back on markets. something i don't think they're going to be too successful in. ultimately what's going to drive the pricing of rate cuts in 2024 is going to be the data. so you look at manufacturing. that's coming up soon. jolts, and then jobs report later this week. >> when you said, interesting, clearly from bond investor's perspective, a lot has