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Mar 21, 2024
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today, the fomc decided to leave our licy interest rate unchanged and to continue to reduce our securities holdings. our restrictive stance of monetary policy has been putting doward pressure on as labor market tightness has eased and progress on inflation has continued, the risks to moving into better balance. i will have more to say about monetary policy after briefly renewing economi developments. recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. gdp growth in the fourth quarter of last year came in at 3.2%. for 2023 as a whole, gdp expaed 3.1%, bolstered by strong consumer demand as well as improving supply conditions. activity■ in the housing sector was subdued over the past year, largely reflecting high mortgage rates. high interest rates alsobusinesd investment. in our summary of economic predictions, committee participants generally expect pace with a median projection of 2.1% this year and 2% over the next two years. artists up and's generally revised up their growth projections since december, reflecting the strength of incoming data, including
today, the fomc decided to leave our licy interest rate unchanged and to continue to reduce our securities holdings. our restrictive stance of monetary policy has been putting doward pressure on as labor market tightness has eased and progress on inflation has continued, the risks to moving into better balance. i will have more to say about monetary policy after briefly renewing economi developments. recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. gdp growth...
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Mar 21, 2024
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fomc participants expect in thet to continue, easing upward pressure on inflation.eeting unemployment rate projection in the sep is 4% at the end of this year and 4.1% at the end of next year. inflatios eased notably over the past year but remains above our longer run goal of 2%. estimates based on the consumer price index and other data indicate that total pcerices rose 2.5% over the 12 months ending in february. and that excluding the volatile categories, core pce prices rose 2.8%. over time inflation expectations broad range ofn well anchore surveys of households, businesses, and forecasters, as well as for measures from financial markets. the median projection in the sep for total pce inflation falls to 2.4% this year, 2.2% next 2% in. the fed's monetary policy tions are guided by our mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the american people. my colleagues and i are acutely aware th hsignificant hardship s the roads purchasing power, especially for those least able to meet the higher costs of ike food, housing, and transportation. we are st
fomc participants expect in thet to continue, easing upward pressure on inflation.eeting unemployment rate projection in the sep is 4% at the end of this year and 4.1% at the end of next year. inflatios eased notably over the past year but remains above our longer run goal of 2%. estimates based on the consumer price index and other data indicate that total pcerices rose 2.5% over the 12 months ending in february. and that excluding the volatile categories, core pce prices rose 2.8%. over time...
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Mar 19, 2024
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traders cut fed bets as fomc members gather. u.s. two year five-year yields climb to the highest levels this year. plus, nvidia unveils the successor to its old ai processor. but markets deliver a muted response to the highly anticipated speech. >> this is hopper. hopper changed the world. this is blackwell. tom: a new era for the japanese economy. the first hike since 2007, ending of yield curve control, and an ending of etf that's in buying. we have stephen engle on the ground in tokyo for all the details and we will cross over momentarily. let's check in on the markets as we set you up throughout the trading day. the fed starts its own policy meeting with that decision on wednesday and a focus on the dot plots, the focus from the fed officials. european futures up. when it comes to s&p futures, 5200, off by a 10th of a percent. nasard futures down. let's flip the board and focus on the japanese yen. a little softer in the session on the back of that decision by the boj. seen by some in the markets at least as a dovish hike that ca
traders cut fed bets as fomc members gather. u.s. two year five-year yields climb to the highest levels this year. plus, nvidia unveils the successor to its old ai processor. but markets deliver a muted response to the highly anticipated speech. >> this is hopper. hopper changed the world. this is blackwell. tom: a new era for the japanese economy. the first hike since 2007, ending of yield curve control, and an ending of etf that's in buying. we have stephen engle on the ground in tokyo...
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Mar 31, 2024
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the fed did not even announce what it did add an fomc meeting until 1994.rom there you have a straight line really of increasing transparency to the point where you are now where you see a lot of transparency. some people say it is too much, but that is the idea, and i think you have gotten to a place where we try to be so clear in what we are doing that the public will understand what we are doing and why and that actually helps our policy be more effective. kai: schumer me. what happens if you guys out of nowhere, and at 11:00 pacific time -- i know it is different for all of you in different time zones, the statement came out and said we could 25 basis points without having given anybody heads up? what do you think happens? chair powell: nothing good. kai: seriously? chair powell: we are careful, thoughtful, we are a steady hand. if we did things like that it would be very much not the way we do business. kai: play it out for me. what do you suppose happens? chair powell: if we did something like that markets would say we thought we understood the fed. i
the fed did not even announce what it did add an fomc meeting until 1994.rom there you have a straight line really of increasing transparency to the point where you are now where you see a lot of transparency. some people say it is too much, but that is the idea, and i think you have gotten to a place where we try to be so clear in what we are doing that the public will understand what we are doing and why and that actually helps our policy be more effective. kai: schumer me. what happens if...
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Mar 20, 2024
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in our smc, fomc participants wrote down their individual assessments of an appropriate path for the funds rate, based on what each participant judges to be the most likely scenario going forward. if the economy evolves as projected, the median participant projects that the level will be 4.6% at the end of this year, 3.9% at the end of 2025, and 3.1% at the end of 2026. still above the median, longer- term funds rate. these projections are not a committee decision. our plan if the economy does not evolve as projected, the path for policy will adjust, as appropriate to foster maximum employment and price stability goals. turning to our balance sheet, our securities holdings have declined by nearly $1.5 trillion since the committee began reducing our portfolio. at this meeting, we discussed issues related to slowing the pace of decline in our securities holdings. while we did not make any decisions today, on this, the general sense of the committee is that it will be appropriate to slow the pace of runoff fairly soon, consistent with the plans we have previously issued. the decision to
in our smc, fomc participants wrote down their individual assessments of an appropriate path for the funds rate, based on what each participant judges to be the most likely scenario going forward. if the economy evolves as projected, the median participant projects that the level will be 4.6% at the end of this year, 3.9% at the end of 2025, and 3.1% at the end of 2026. still above the median, longer- term funds rate. these projections are not a committee decision. our plan if the economy does...
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Mar 6, 2024
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he is likely to use it as an opportunity to signal that the fomc is in no hurry to cut interest ratesi am joined by jill disis. what message does powell need to get across at this testimony? jill: well, tom, i think you nailed it, it's all about patients and trying to reassure investors that it is, that you know, eventually there will be rate cuts down the line but we will have to see exactly when that is. i think it's also about trying to reassure investors that we are not really in for another rate hike. i realize it is may be a bit wilder to believe given how things look just a couple of months ago when we had traders really pricing in those bets of a cut as soon as much. obviously -- as soon as march. obviously, the landscape has changed, particularly after that really hot january cpi print. still pricing in the possibility of another interest rate hike, however remote. at this point with jerome powell, we've seen a lot of the messaging over the past few weeks about stressing that idea of patience, that's really what he's got to nail down, this clarity over policy direction from t
he is likely to use it as an opportunity to signal that the fomc is in no hurry to cut interest ratesi am joined by jill disis. what message does powell need to get across at this testimony? jill: well, tom, i think you nailed it, it's all about patients and trying to reassure investors that it is, that you know, eventually there will be rate cuts down the line but we will have to see exactly when that is. i think it's also about trying to reassure investors that we are not really in for...
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Mar 20, 2024
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chairman powell has been dovish the last couple of fomc meetings. we have had huge rallies in expectations of rate cuts. there is a presumption he is going to be somewhat dovish in town. . we have had some that inflation data to start the year. that would be one possible surprise is if there is a significant tone change and i guess what we would call a hawkish direction later than sooner on rick cuts. katie: later rather than sooner. how much later? the bigger question is there is a month between when the market is expecting them to lift off versus when they actually lift off? stephen: it matters to traders and investors. as far as how much later, my own view has been for a while the fed would be on hold for most of the year. the inflation data are going to prove stickier than most people expect. the real economy is doing fine. there's no urgency to get rates down. i don't see the first rate cut coming until november. i don't think that is where the fed is. they will have to be convinced of that. a few more months of inflation data close to what we
chairman powell has been dovish the last couple of fomc meetings. we have had huge rallies in expectations of rate cuts. there is a presumption he is going to be somewhat dovish in town. . we have had some that inflation data to start the year. that would be one possible surprise is if there is a significant tone change and i guess what we would call a hawkish direction later than sooner on rick cuts. katie: later rather than sooner. how much later? the bigger question is there is a month...
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Mar 26, 2024
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tom: lisa cook who is a voting member of the fomc. we also have rafael bostic reiterating his view that he expects it more likely that they cut just once in the year this year. how are markets reacting to the fed speak? >> i'm getting a lot more cautious. there were so euphoric after the fomc and jerome powell's press conference that everyone was so dovish, it sounded great, the fed was keeping two to three interest rates. the dot plots. jerome powell was reinforcing the message of a coming down. we heard a few pieces of strong data. we are getting pushback. mr. bostic saying one cut is necessary this year. other saying not quite sure, maybe two, maybe three. we have loads of important data. the big one is the pce, which comes in at the end of the week. interestingly, the market reactions are that, could really be a bit large because it comes on a friday, most of the world is on holiday. u.s. bond market will be at subpar strength. the data will come out. phil -- then on monday, the market reaction could be quite large, especially ear
tom: lisa cook who is a voting member of the fomc. we also have rafael bostic reiterating his view that he expects it more likely that they cut just once in the year this year. how are markets reacting to the fed speak? >> i'm getting a lot more cautious. there were so euphoric after the fomc and jerome powell's press conference that everyone was so dovish, it sounded great, the fed was keeping two to three interest rates. the dot plots. jerome powell was reinforcing the message of a...
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Mar 20, 2024
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in our s.e.p., fomc participants wrote down therapy individual assessments of an appropriate path for the federal funds rate based on what each participant judges to be the most likely scenario going forward. if the economy evolveses as projected the median participant projects the appropriate level of the federal funds rate will be 4.6% at the end of this year, 3.9% at the end of 2025 and 3.1% at the end of 2026. still above the median longer term funds rate. these projections are not a committee decision or plan if the economy does not evolve as projected, the path for policy will adjust as appropriate to foster our maximum employment and price stability goals. turning to our balance sheet, our securities holdings have declined by nearly $1.5 trillion since the committee began reducing our portfolio. at this meeting we discussed issues related to slowing the pace of decline in our securities holdings. while we did not make any decisions today on this the general sense of the committee is that it will be appropriate to slow the pace of run-off fairly soon, consistent with the plans w
in our s.e.p., fomc participants wrote down therapy individual assessments of an appropriate path for the federal funds rate based on what each participant judges to be the most likely scenario going forward. if the economy evolveses as projected the median participant projects the appropriate level of the federal funds rate will be 4.6% at the end of this year, 3.9% at the end of 2025 and 3.1% at the end of 2026. still above the median longer term funds rate. these projections are not a...
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Mar 4, 2024
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patients that has been articulated by the fomc.n wednesday a budget ahead of the election so chancellor hunt will outline details and whether they have the room to push through with tax cuts possibly assurance seems less likely that we will see. ecb decision on thursday and updating of forecasts after inflation came in higher than expected. america powers on. goldman sachs chairman on why u.s. equity market dominance is set to continue. that's next, this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ tom: welcome back to bloomberg. markets are set for fresh records and the nikkei top 40,000 bolstered by a record session on friday. we are joined by the head of investment strategy group and wealth management cio at goldman sachs. thank you for standing by. start with the upside. is there anything in the way of this? >> things on the upside and downside. earnings have surprised in the first quarter so that is supportive of the u.s. market. not emerging markets. earnings support will continue in as people become confident, that will support markets. there does not
patients that has been articulated by the fomc.n wednesday a budget ahead of the election so chancellor hunt will outline details and whether they have the room to push through with tax cuts possibly assurance seems less likely that we will see. ecb decision on thursday and updating of forecasts after inflation came in higher than expected. america powers on. goldman sachs chairman on why u.s. equity market dominance is set to continue. that's next, this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ tom: welcome back...
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Mar 13, 2024
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the 10 year yield is at 418 and much more economic data and this week before the fomc next week.n the equity side, looking at the biggest losers, nvidia, apple and tesla are dragging the index lower. dollar tree shares are having the worst day in nearly a year after announcing plans to shutter about 1000 stores in an effort to improve profitability. valero energy continues to rise ever hitting a record high yesterday with energy the best performing sector in the s&p 500 today. earlier today, former new york fed president bill dudley gave us his take on where the rate path goes from here. >> marches off the table, may is probably off the table, too. we are talking about the fed cutting rates probably sometime this summer and it will be maybe three. given the inflation data, maybe that will shrink to 2. there is still plenty of time and plenty of meetings this year to cut rates at any time. sonali: ken griffin also spoke this week about the fed and said the bank needs to be more careful. he said pausing and changing direction back toward higher rates quickly would be the most devas
the 10 year yield is at 418 and much more economic data and this week before the fomc next week.n the equity side, looking at the biggest losers, nvidia, apple and tesla are dragging the index lower. dollar tree shares are having the worst day in nearly a year after announcing plans to shutter about 1000 stores in an effort to improve profitability. valero energy continues to rise ever hitting a record high yesterday with energy the best performing sector in the s&p 500 today. earlier...
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Mar 26, 2024
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what took us by surprise is the march fomc meeting.gave us more understanding of how the fed is thinking about this, what their reaction function might be. from all of that, it seemed quite dovish and it seemed like they are also looking for a window to go in there and start cutting rates. that aligns with what we had expected earlier. lisa: a lot of people have, this program and said the march pivot or the continuation of the december pivot highlights this federal reserve will be tolerant of an nation at a higher level for a longer time -- tolerant of inflation at a higher level for a longer period of time. why are you seeing that in market expectations? pooja: we would not read it as them being tolerant of higher inflation expectations. i think what we learned from the march fomc meeting is they did not infer much from the january and february inflation prints. there baseline outlook remains one where they expect the future inflation prints to evolve lower. nothing has changed in terms of their baseline forecast from december to marc
what took us by surprise is the march fomc meeting.gave us more understanding of how the fed is thinking about this, what their reaction function might be. from all of that, it seemed quite dovish and it seemed like they are also looking for a window to go in there and start cutting rates. that aligns with what we had expected earlier. lisa: a lot of people have, this program and said the march pivot or the continuation of the december pivot highlights this federal reserve will be tolerant of...
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Mar 15, 2024
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and so if next week we have one or two or three fomc participants write down a dot plot that has four, five, six, seven rate cuts in it and we've got another couple fomc members that have one with no rate cuts in it i'm not sure that any of that matters. inthe chair will be effective -- i think the chair will be effective at corralling people to the outcome that he wants. >> he has been on the record even just last week in congress saying that they now view the risks as balance, that's their way of saying they're -- they're as attentive to risk to the economic growth picture as they are to a flare-up in inflation. where are you on the underlying strength of the economy at this point? you have seen labor market indicators roll over a little bit. and i guess the only reason you'd really worry if the fed were going to continue to be patient is if you thought it was going to make them too late to get in front of economic weakness. >> i completely agree with that last part. that would be the real risk. and i don't think that risk is especially big right now. i will say if we go back, you k
and so if next week we have one or two or three fomc participants write down a dot plot that has four, five, six, seven rate cuts in it and we've got another couple fomc members that have one with no rate cuts in it i'm not sure that any of that matters. inthe chair will be effective -- i think the chair will be effective at corralling people to the outcome that he wants. >> he has been on the record even just last week in congress saying that they now view the risks as balance, that's...
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Mar 6, 2024
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inflation has eased notably over the past year but remains above the fomc's longer run goal of 2%. total personal kelsey plum expenditures prices rose 2.4% over the 12 months ending in january. excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core pce prices rose 2.8%, a notable slowing from 2022 that was widespread. long-term speculation expectations appear to have remained well anchored as reflected by a broad range of surveys of households, businesses and forecasters as well as measures from financial markets. and after tightening the stance of monetary policy since 2022, that they remained 5.5% since last july. we've also continued to shrink our balance sheet. a restrictive stance of monetary policy is putting downward pressure on economic activity and inflation. we believe that our policy rate is likely at its peak for this tightening cycle. in if the economy evolves as expected, it will like i will be appropriate to beginning begin dialing back restraint at some point this year. with the economic outlook is uncertain and ongoing progress toward our 2% objective for inflatio
inflation has eased notably over the past year but remains above the fomc's longer run goal of 2%. total personal kelsey plum expenditures prices rose 2.4% over the 12 months ending in january. excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core pce prices rose 2.8%, a notable slowing from 2022 that was widespread. long-term speculation expectations appear to have remained well anchored as reflected by a broad range of surveys of households, businesses and forecasters as well as measures...
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Mar 22, 2024
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then, of course, we're going to assess the madness of jay powell a couple of days after the fomc. judy e shelton and don luskin on that. and commodities are breaking out, so where are the best opportunitiesesome and lessons from jerry seinfeld on the need for several revenue streams, especially in the age of runaway prices. and by the way, why is america so unhappy? if our happiness is fading fast. all that and so much more on "making money." ♪ ♪ charles: all right, so this morning nike, actually after the bell yesterday, reported their numbers, right? but this morning they were competing with fedex to see which one of these would be the hottest stock in the market, right, this session. and then came the conference call. the company actually says, well, they see sales slowing down in north america. by the way, despite if what the media has tried to paint the mare ty. also -- narrative. also china sales are weakening as well, so management offered tepid growth expectations and they're going to focus on cutting $2 billion in costs over 3 years. that was around 31 minutes into the ea
then, of course, we're going to assess the madness of jay powell a couple of days after the fomc. judy e shelton and don luskin on that. and commodities are breaking out, so where are the best opportunitiesesome and lessons from jerry seinfeld on the need for several revenue streams, especially in the age of runaway prices. and by the way, why is america so unhappy? if our happiness is fading fast. all that and so much more on "making money." ♪ ♪ charles: all right, so this...
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Mar 21, 2024
03/24
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it was a shrug to the fmo c meeting -- fomc meeting.market disciplines had a do coney in view of the economy and the belief the fed would have to cut rates at a significant pace just to be able to keep the economy afloat. yet the economy continue to be strong, and that disparity in views, the expectation versus reality, drove the market rally last year from an fomc cut perspective. as we sit here today investors are starting to look at, what are earnings, growth is still good, and supportive of the groep -- katie: of the valuations we have. let's talk about how you are thinking about how you will the portfolio around some of these fears. the market at all-time highs or very how are you thinking about stocks in relation to what is going on in the fixed income market? alan: we have been big advocates for maintaining your weights to equities throughout this rally and even coming into 2023 last year, where people were a bit more circumspect about maintaining those allocations. within equities we have been interested, although we have not ma
it was a shrug to the fmo c meeting -- fomc meeting.market disciplines had a do coney in view of the economy and the belief the fed would have to cut rates at a significant pace just to be able to keep the economy afloat. yet the economy continue to be strong, and that disparity in views, the expectation versus reality, drove the market rally last year from an fomc cut perspective. as we sit here today investors are starting to look at, what are earnings, growth is still good, and supportive of...
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Mar 7, 2024
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at our fomc meeting we will have our first deep dive on what to do with the balance sheet. that's one of the issues will talk about. i can see a case for shortening the maturity but is not something that would happen quickly. thus a longer term loss. >> is an election year and your getting pressure to cut rates in the of the fed depends on data reading and i continue to do that. chair powell: will do. >> senator warren of massachusetts. it's been a year since we had the second, third and fourth largest bank failures in american history. greedy bank executives in the fed is the chief regulator of the biggest banks. under your leadership and direction the fed we can rules for the biggest billionaire banks, exactly the banks of vail bus barge. you failed to do your job to keep these big banks in line. you promise the fed would do better after years of hemming and hawing you finally agreed to put in place vessel three roles that would strengthen capital standards for the biggest banks and i mean the biggest banks. these are the fed's proposed rule would apply to only 37 of the
at our fomc meeting we will have our first deep dive on what to do with the balance sheet. that's one of the issues will talk about. i can see a case for shortening the maturity but is not something that would happen quickly. thus a longer term loss. >> is an election year and your getting pressure to cut rates in the of the fed depends on data reading and i continue to do that. chair powell: will do. >> senator warren of massachusetts. it's been a year since we had the second,...
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we will do what we think is best but that carries through, most fomcs for 20 years.. kansas city federal reserve for president. >> thanks for having me. markets in the bond market where you have 10 year under 4.9%, this headshot up to 4.35% a couple weeks ago on inflation figures, that is different, more after this. ♪ are everywhere you turn. do you charge forward? freeze in your tracks? or, let curiosity light the way. at t. rowe price, we ask smart questions about opportunities like advances in healthcare and how these innovations will create a healthier world tomorrow. better questions. better outcomes. it's odd how in an instant things can transform. slipping out of balance into freefall. i'm glad i found stability amidst it all. gold. standing the test of time. .. (♪) (♪) (♪) (♪) (♪) (♪) there are many ways to do things. at old dominion freight line, we do them this way. this way has people who start early. people who care and inspire each other to do things the way they should be done. this way uses technology (♪) and goes the extra mile (♪) to deliver your pro
we will do what we think is best but that carries through, most fomcs for 20 years.. kansas city federal reserve for president. >> thanks for having me. markets in the bond market where you have 10 year under 4.9%, this headshot up to 4.35% a couple weeks ago on inflation figures, that is different, more after this. ♪ are everywhere you turn. do you charge forward? freeze in your tracks? or, let curiosity light the way. at t. rowe price, we ask smart questions about opportunities like...
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Mar 7, 2024
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some point this year but remains patient, so reiterating the message we have seen and heard from other fomc officials. 411 on the benchmark. brent, $82 a barrel. avril hong is standing behind singapore. what are you looking at? avril: japan first and foremost, the governor of the boj has been speaking in parliament, and what we have heard from them so far. he says the chance of reaching the target is inching higher little by little and they could start easing. they could mild easing if the boj hits the target. let's take a look at what we are seeing our across assets in japan as that boj play is coming into focus today as we heard chatter even before we heard in parliament. we had wage growth data showing acceleration to the fastest clip since june of last year, and that feeds into the narrative we are seeing inflation that will help the boj toward its exit. we got a scoop saying government officials are supportive of boj move in march and april because they see the promising prospect of wage hikes in the country. that is playing out across assets. bonds under pressure. look here, you see h
some point this year but remains patient, so reiterating the message we have seen and heard from other fomc officials. 411 on the benchmark. brent, $82 a barrel. avril hong is standing behind singapore. what are you looking at? avril: japan first and foremost, the governor of the boj has been speaking in parliament, and what we have heard from them so far. he says the chance of reaching the target is inching higher little by little and they could start easing. they could mild easing if the boj...
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Mar 6, 2024
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in your mind do you expect them to deviate at all from what he said at the fomc meeting or what we heardrom fed officials? >> he's trying to strike more of a dovish tone. we're on record for that being a mistake. i think the fed has completely mischaracterized how low interest or how reduced interest rate-sensitive the economy is and the need for rate cuts inflation is going to come in stronger i think he's going to signal the rate cuts, but the economy is closing the window for it. the bond market is going to be it's been disappointing. it's going to continue to be disappointed they may be able to squeeze off one or two, but the economy is going to close that window there's an election cycle. >> you think he's going to turn more dovish? we've heard wait and see now you say when it comes to the hill, he gets a little more dovish >> i think he 's in the wait and see. he's got a dovish tone to him. i that've had to admit the data is coming in stronger, it's more durable, inflation is stickier i think the bond market continues to get disappointment. i wouldn't say there's an outside chance
in your mind do you expect them to deviate at all from what he said at the fomc meeting or what we heardrom fed officials? >> he's trying to strike more of a dovish tone. we're on record for that being a mistake. i think the fed has completely mischaracterized how low interest or how reduced interest rate-sensitive the economy is and the need for rate cuts inflation is going to come in stronger i think he's going to signal the rate cuts, but the economy is closing the window for it. the...
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Mar 18, 2024
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jonathan: fomc expected to hold rates steady wednesday and maybe first cut potentially in june.estors looking at the so-called dot plot. jay powell saying earlier this month of the central bank is not far from an initial cut as it looks for a bit more evidence inflation is moving towards 2%. former fed columnist claudia sahm joins us. wonderful to catch up with the peer you said maybe a chance for chairman powell this week to make sure everyone stays around the three implied in the median dot. start with the dots. when can we, and how can we, get away from this? claudia: it is hopeless at this point. everyone wants some scrap of certainty, and they look at the fed and have a misguided belief that the fed is going to give that to us. the fed would like a scrap of certainty about what they're going to do later this year. my hope for this meeting, it is the most boring meeting ever with traders falling asleep at their desk. we know they are not going to cut this week, and we better not see anything material change on that summary of economic projections, in particular, are we looki
jonathan: fomc expected to hold rates steady wednesday and maybe first cut potentially in june.estors looking at the so-called dot plot. jay powell saying earlier this month of the central bank is not far from an initial cut as it looks for a bit more evidence inflation is moving towards 2%. former fed columnist claudia sahm joins us. wonderful to catch up with the peer you said maybe a chance for chairman powell this week to make sure everyone stays around the three implied in the median dot....
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Mar 7, 2024
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how do these housing supply issues show up in the data that the fomc uses to make decisions? chair powell: housing prices don't go into the d housing starts and renovations, things like that, are business activity. that shows up. when it comes to infla■■
how do these housing supply issues show up in the data that the fomc uses to make decisions? chair powell: housing prices don't go into the d housing starts and renovations, things like that, are business activity. that shows up. when it comes to infla■■
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Mar 8, 2024
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how do these housing supplyup it the fomc uses to make decisions?novations, things like that, are business activity. that shows up. when it comes to inflation, we convert ownership into an imputed rent. then we look at rents. that's how we look at that. we are not directly affected by changes in housing prices. over time those will drive rents up. senator tester: are there economic trends that you see for housing? chair powell: yes. two big things going on. one is, we have this underlying shortage of housing due to things like difficulties of zoning. a lot of close in to cities, places already built. more difficult to get zoning, more difficult to get people and materials. that's one thing. that's not going away. then there is just a ton of things happening because of the pandemic, because of inflation, because of higher rates. those are in the short-term, those have really -- they are weighi o as rates come down, and that all goes through the economy, we are still going to be back to a place where we don't have enough housing. senator tester: thank
how do these housing supplyup it the fomc uses to make decisions?novations, things like that, are business activity. that shows up. when it comes to inflation, we convert ownership into an imputed rent. then we look at rents. that's how we look at that. we are not directly affected by changes in housing prices. over time those will drive rents up. senator tester: are there economic trends that you see for housing? chair powell: yes. two big things going on. one is, we have this underlying...
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Mar 22, 2024
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vonnie: to that point, matt, gdp growth this year will be higher than the fomc estimated in december. members said we had higher core pce, looser financial conditions. in that environment, why should the fed cut at all? matt: great question. we talked about inflation being stickier than an's -- expected, labor market being stickier. these rate cuts are stickier than we expected. we heard from powell, we heard from the regulators, it's clear that inflation didn't happen, not a problem. still wants to ease, still wants consensus from the committee. so, why? great question. two reasons. inflation is a lagging indicator. it tells you what happened, not it is happening and not what's going to happen. there's always a lag. more importantly, there's definitely a monetary policy leg. the 10 year pete 96 months ago. -- nine to six months ago. it takes 12 to 24 months for rate hikes to actually impact the economy. so, if you are looking at a lagging economic indicator like inflation, stories about rate cuts not working are way premature. come back and talk to me in the first half of 2025 to the
vonnie: to that point, matt, gdp growth this year will be higher than the fomc estimated in december. members said we had higher core pce, looser financial conditions. in that environment, why should the fed cut at all? matt: great question. we talked about inflation being stickier than an's -- expected, labor market being stickier. these rate cuts are stickier than we expected. we heard from powell, we heard from the regulators, it's clear that inflation didn't happen, not a problem. still...
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Mar 28, 2024
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the question i have got, does that argument win out everyone else on the fomc? lisa: if you look at the market, the answer is maybe. people aren't buying wholesale into chris wallace being the mainstay of fed governors. when you look at the odds of a march rate cut, you are looking at 55%. not is in change. -- not a significant change. is there a rush for some of the others who we are hearing from tomorrow? jonathan: there is a rush to agreed targets on is a b 500. we get another one overnight. lifting the year end price target to 5300 to 5150. we have seen this from a series of banks. annmarie: she is talking about spring cleaning, when she wants to lift her s&p 500 forecast. she is that in the press target. jp morgan, they are noting their clients not to be stuck on the wrong side because there is a pullback. we do not want to be stuck on the wrong side yet people continue to that upgrades. lisa: she went through her forecast, lifted from 5000 in november, it was 5150. it is like me to do this because we have moved beyond where we are which shows you what a su
the question i have got, does that argument win out everyone else on the fomc? lisa: if you look at the market, the answer is maybe. people aren't buying wholesale into chris wallace being the mainstay of fed governors. when you look at the odds of a march rate cut, you are looking at 55%. not is in change. -- not a significant change. is there a rush for some of the others who we are hearing from tomorrow? jonathan: there is a rush to agreed targets on is a b 500. we get another one overnight....
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Mar 11, 2024
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geoff: it's really about the guidance and i think powell with most of the other fomc members what they need to do is not what several ecb hawks are saying which is we need to confirm the data confirms we get to 2% for we can cut rates because i think that's the definition of getting behind the curve. you need to get ahead of disinflation so this means from q2 onwards every meeting will be a live meeting. >> a lot of people perhaps you can take the no rate cut people out of the equation because they started by saying there being a little ridiculous. moving forward it seems that there's fewer rate cuts being priced in the u.s. than europe. i don't understand why the euro has remained so resilient. what's your take? >> i agree and i think markets whether it's a positioning issue when the markets overextended itself in terms of dollar holdings that i think there will be a point of reckoning with the ecb acknowledging the european economy faces severe issues with regards to manufacturing. the demand in the euro zone looking at imports for example whether you look at the material side of thi
geoff: it's really about the guidance and i think powell with most of the other fomc members what they need to do is not what several ecb hawks are saying which is we need to confirm the data confirms we get to 2% for we can cut rates because i think that's the definition of getting behind the curve. you need to get ahead of disinflation so this means from q2 onwards every meeting will be a live meeting. >> a lot of people perhaps you can take the no rate cut people out of the equation...
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Mar 8, 2024
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the other thing we have not talked about yet is we will get new fomc dots. all eyes are focused on that expectation. it is unstable. two people needing to move their dots for that to move lower. the cpi data will be very important for indicators of where that ends up. sonali: we have to leave it there. critical data next week after critical data today. up next, the auction block, high-grade u.s. sales up the fastest start with any year on record with $430 billion already priced in. we will dig into the bond binge up next. this is "real yield" on bloomberg. ♪ sonali: it is time for the auction block, or u.s. investment great issue it stayed hot. weekly sales exceeding 50 billion for the third straight week. notable offerings included barclays, blackrock, new york mellon. sales are around 30% higher than they were this time in 2023 and they are on record pace to start the year. the weak sales on u.s. high-yield -- alcoa and xerox helped drive the total to $65 billion. israel sold $8 billion of international bonds, the biggest sale of dollar notes on record. th
the other thing we have not talked about yet is we will get new fomc dots. all eyes are focused on that expectation. it is unstable. two people needing to move their dots for that to move lower. the cpi data will be very important for indicators of where that ends up. sonali: we have to leave it there. critical data next week after critical data today. up next, the auction block, high-grade u.s. sales up the fastest start with any year on record with $430 billion already priced in. we will dig...
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Mar 15, 2024
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sonali: head of a major fomc meeting traders aren't thinking about cuts earlier in the year and pushing expectations out. but how far? two months ago we were looking at about four rate cuts priced in by july 21 and that has already gone down to one. when you look at fed futures the probability has declined meaningfully. it was priced into nearly 100% two months ago and now you are looking at it like a flip of a coin. let's look at moves in the treasury market. the 10 year has had drastic moves this year seeing the biggest gain in yields since october. think about how much that has been. it has been one of the more drastic moves we have seen over the past six months. there are a lot of influences to that move at the longer into the curve and we will talk about it. joining me is teresa mcdonough of community bank. when you think about the data we have seen and how far yields have gone higher on the two-year and the 10 year and at the data we will get ahead before july when traders are expecting a cut finally, how do you view the data and the uncertainty around it? >> thank you so much. i
sonali: head of a major fomc meeting traders aren't thinking about cuts earlier in the year and pushing expectations out. but how far? two months ago we were looking at about four rate cuts priced in by july 21 and that has already gone down to one. when you look at fed futures the probability has declined meaningfully. it was priced into nearly 100% two months ago and now you are looking at it like a flip of a coin. let's look at moves in the treasury market. the 10 year has had drastic moves...
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Mar 15, 2024
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tom: whether jay powell lobbies the fomc, it is risk off. i'll are up.s it about the narrative around stinky u.s. inflation? >> it is partly what you mentioned, the slide bitcoin triggered a broader move of people saying bitcoin is giving up gains. we should pare before a huge week. hong kong stocks having a bad day. equity markets are down copper is doing well but iron ore is not. people are adjusting all the huge things coming. maybe it is better to be on the sidelines. if you're looking for excuses for taking money off the table, there are plenty. tom: complexity on this day with divergence. thank you, fascinating. of course mark is one of our key strategists. here is what we are looking at today. final french cpi for february. survey is looking at 0.9% and we will see if that comes in. dovish commentary from some officials and inflation data are out of france is crucial to the assessment. 2:00 p.m. u.k. time we switch to the u.s.. university of michigan sentiment survey suggesting retail sales were softer. whether the university of michigan sentiment
tom: whether jay powell lobbies the fomc, it is risk off. i'll are up.s it about the narrative around stinky u.s. inflation? >> it is partly what you mentioned, the slide bitcoin triggered a broader move of people saying bitcoin is giving up gains. we should pare before a huge week. hong kong stocks having a bad day. equity markets are down copper is doing well but iron ore is not. people are adjusting all the huge things coming. maybe it is better to be on the sidelines. if you're...
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Mar 20, 2024
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which wins out on the fomc at today's meeting and the next several months?> does the fed generate inflation? that's a philosophical question we have to ask. jonathan: do you believe they do? >> i think they believe they can influence financial conditions may have a strong effect on interest rates of course. the question is more about the fci channel. how quick will it translate into inflation? if you shift toward fci, it could be fleeting. markets were at the highs yesterday but will they be there three months down the road? lisa: if financial conditions is a trying it -- is a financial mechanism of the federal reserve, shouldn't worry them that there mechanism is now functioning to bring down inflation? >> it's been delayed because it still lingering this year, fiscal policy is probably offset on the feds tightening. it's a pretty powerful move. if you translate the actual quantum of how much government spending we've had in the various government jobs which has kept the jobs market stronger than what it seems on the private side, if it wasn't for all that
which wins out on the fomc at today's meeting and the next several months?> does the fed generate inflation? that's a philosophical question we have to ask. jonathan: do you believe they do? >> i think they believe they can influence financial conditions may have a strong effect on interest rates of course. the question is more about the fci channel. how quick will it translate into inflation? if you shift toward fci, it could be fleeting. markets were at the highs yesterday but will...
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Mar 28, 2024
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last week we had the fomc and euphoria about the idea of rate cuts being three for this year, and there was a lot of dialing back in the meantime and we are about to go into the second quarter so there will be rethinking of investors. equities are good, u.s. dollar relatively strongly to bonds have been a good layer as well, yet here we are on the cusp of going into the second quarter and may be people have to dial back on some of these ideas as they rethink what the fed has to say. there is big data coming up including the pce, so by the weekend people have a lot to think about. might not be quite so optimistic as they were just a few days ago. tom: we will see if jay powell reiterates the line that he sees they are not far from having the confidence to cut, the line that came out from jay powell a couple of weeks ago. a lot of data coming through from the u.s. and japan. how are you looking at that and the tie-in to dollar-yen and have officials in tokyo got the path now? there is a little stability. >> colleagues in japan have been running a new index, the chief foreign exchange guy
last week we had the fomc and euphoria about the idea of rate cuts being three for this year, and there was a lot of dialing back in the meantime and we are about to go into the second quarter so there will be rethinking of investors. equities are good, u.s. dollar relatively strongly to bonds have been a good layer as well, yet here we are on the cusp of going into the second quarter and may be people have to dial back on some of these ideas as they rethink what the fed has to say. there is...
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Mar 21, 2024
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if you look at the new dot plots, there was a bit of a market exercise among the forecasters in the fomc, but despite that, members are still sticking to three rate cuts at least for the remainder of the year. there was a bit of an update for the long run neutral rate which picked up by 10 basis points from 2.5 to 2.6. that's basically going to be a main debate going forward because we still think the neutral rate is well below the market pricing at the moment, if you look at the longer dated treasuries. how they upgrade the number in the future will be an interesting debate to watch but we think the fed is still keen to bring rates down, because there still a prospect of additional 50 to 75 basis point decline in inflation numbers from here. if that's the case, we will see the rate cuts starting in june, we are still hoping for a full cut and we think the market pricing is a little too much to the hawkers side. you're right about the soft landing for the rest of the year, and those cuts may materialize and take away from our perspective. haidi: what's really been interesting is the dual
if you look at the new dot plots, there was a bit of a market exercise among the forecasters in the fomc, but despite that, members are still sticking to three rate cuts at least for the remainder of the year. there was a bit of an update for the long run neutral rate which picked up by 10 basis points from 2.5 to 2.6. that's basically going to be a main debate going forward because we still think the neutral rate is well below the market pricing at the moment, if you look at the longer dated...
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Mar 13, 2024
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numbers mean they should make the adjustment now or wait to make the adjustment may be at the next fomcng. that's what bond traders, especially are watching this very closely. we have heard plenty of times the federal reserve speakers in the past couple of weeks, may be to is sufficient. neel kashkari says one is sufficient for this year. there are disagreements within the fed people. jerome powell said he thought it might be the first rate cut in the middle of the year, which people are taking for being june, the markets think it's the right time. everything could be upended if they change the dot plots next week and maybe they reduce the number to this year for cuts, and may be in an extreme case they go for one. there is plenty hinging on this, and that's probably why there's nervousness in the treasury market, they may see a follow-through in the equity markets as well. they might take a cautious stance between now and next week's decision. tom: lines crossing from the governor who has been given evidence again in front of parliament in tokyo. the boj saying spring wage talks are im
numbers mean they should make the adjustment now or wait to make the adjustment may be at the next fomcng. that's what bond traders, especially are watching this very closely. we have heard plenty of times the federal reserve speakers in the past couple of weeks, may be to is sufficient. neel kashkari says one is sufficient for this year. there are disagreements within the fed people. jerome powell said he thought it might be the first rate cut in the middle of the year, which people are taking...
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Mar 19, 2024
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you have the bank of japan putting an end to negative rates and now focus shifts to the fomc tomorrow bank of mecca chairman and ceo brian moynihan in an exclusive interview and asked for his take on the economy. brian: our team protected recession somewhere earlier this year. then they took it off the table and now they are predicting 2% plus growth for this quarter. you have gone from a negative to sightly positive 2%. that is returning to the mean. it is not outsized growth. people cannot forget were going from a 4% to 5% growth rate to 2% growth rate. it is slowing down. the consumer is very resilient. they are providing an anchor that the fed has latitude that a lot of places don't have that they can be restrictive and that the economy catch up. they have to be mindful of the change. at some point they can slow down and they have slowed down spending. last year it was 10% growth. this year in the fall, 5%. now it is down to 3% to 4%. this is the tension we are in right now. the resilient ricotta -- economy trying to bring inflation down since the financial crisis and other try to
you have the bank of japan putting an end to negative rates and now focus shifts to the fomc tomorrow bank of mecca chairman and ceo brian moynihan in an exclusive interview and asked for his take on the economy. brian: our team protected recession somewhere earlier this year. then they took it off the table and now they are predicting 2% plus growth for this quarter. you have gone from a negative to sightly positive 2%. that is returning to the mean. it is not outsized growth. people cannot...
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Mar 11, 2024
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there is a lot of thinking about what is the discussion going to be like a monk fomc members next week, but will powell's press conference be like? will we get some clarity and with a big enough to push the fed toward cutting interest rates and may or june. what traders are looking out for is clarity on what the trajectory looks like. you might see a rally in the bond market cool off and you might see that push on gold star to is up too. that is what is factoring into the calculus for traders right now. what does this tell us about what fed officials with an coming into the march meeting? we will see what policymakers think taking all of these data points. the job report on friday was confusing. we sought nonfarm payrolls be resilient, so we will see at the february cpi data gives us clarity into what is happening with the economy tom: -- economy. tom: jill with an excellent preview. talking about what else is on the agenda, before we get to the cpi print we will get u.k. jobs data, as a interesting time in terms of how we think about the bank of england and next steps with the central
there is a lot of thinking about what is the discussion going to be like a monk fomc members next week, but will powell's press conference be like? will we get some clarity and with a big enough to push the fed toward cutting interest rates and may or june. what traders are looking out for is clarity on what the trajectory looks like. you might see a rally in the bond market cool off and you might see that push on gold star to is up too. that is what is factoring into the calculus for traders...
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Mar 12, 2024
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fed officials will likely put the report in the notso good column at next week's fomc meeting. discuss this with lydia boussour. always great to have you at us. especially to pass through the components of the cpi print. i wanted to look at the so-called super core reading because this is the element perhaps fed officials would be most concerned. this chart is really not coming down fast enough. if you look at the average monthly gain for super court services inflation, 02 point sent over the three years before the pandemic. at the moment we are more than double that, almost tell .5%. is this something the federal be concerned about and is it enough for them to change the communication at next week's meeting? lydia: i think this was an interesting item in the report this morning. we saw some cool down in super core inflation after the hot print in january of 0.8%. but it remains elevated and it does suggest there is lingering stickiness in inflation. i think the key take away from this morning's report is that we are still not there yet when it comes to the fed gaining that con
fed officials will likely put the report in the notso good column at next week's fomc meeting. discuss this with lydia boussour. always great to have you at us. especially to pass through the components of the cpi print. i wanted to look at the so-called super core reading because this is the element perhaps fed officials would be most concerned. this chart is really not coming down fast enough. if you look at the average monthly gain for super court services inflation, 02 point sent over the...
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Mar 21, 2024
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. >> we wanted to know how the data would change the conversation on the fomc. it did not there looking through hotter than expected inflation prints and thinking the trend is intact and maybe we are in a position to reduce interest rates. this fed wants to cut interest rates.i don't think you can draw any other conclusion after listening to chair powell yesterday. >> this is not set them back. it does not seem like they lost confidence that they were not going to cut. some of the longer-term questions remain. where they go to, the terminal rate, how far can they cut? a lot of people are talking about simply normalizing, not easing. we will spend the next couple months parsing through that. stay tuned. >> they will be great. here is the lineup. gargi, stephanie, brian. stocks hitting fresh all-time highs following dovish news. small caps delivering their best day in about a month. blackrock's gargi chowdhury saying this. gargi, i'm pleased to say, joins us. it's important to go back. this market was priced for six or seven rate cuts. you said that was nonsense.
. >> we wanted to know how the data would change the conversation on the fomc. it did not there looking through hotter than expected inflation prints and thinking the trend is intact and maybe we are in a position to reduce interest rates. this fed wants to cut interest rates.i don't think you can draw any other conclusion after listening to chair powell yesterday. >> this is not set them back. it does not seem like they lost confidence that they were not going to cut. some of the...
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Mar 18, 2024
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they start going to cut for more than 200 basis points to half a year meeting 50 basis point by the fomce boj has to do something. i don't know if the boj -- if the u.s. economy enters a recession, with some kind of financial crisis, the boj has to do something to the dovish side. haidi: great to have you with us. chief japan economist at ubs securities japan. much more insight ahead into the boj decision. will be speaking with the former central bank officials in the next hour. stay with us for a look at the market impact. jp morgan securities chief chief japan strategist will be with us. strong wage increases for japanese labor may be the trigger needed. we got that data toward the end of last week. to see some gains in the small-cap stocks. firms have been humbled by focus consumer spending for years. are asia stocks reporter joins us from tokyo. presumably wage increases leads to improved household spending investors are looking to trade around this somatic -- this thematic. >> exactly. the surprisingly strong wage negotiation involves putting a fresh focus on japanese small-cap shar
they start going to cut for more than 200 basis points to half a year meeting 50 basis point by the fomce boj has to do something. i don't know if the boj -- if the u.s. economy enters a recession, with some kind of financial crisis, the boj has to do something to the dovish side. haidi: great to have you with us. chief japan economist at ubs securities japan. much more insight ahead into the boj decision. will be speaking with the former central bank officials in the next hour. stay with us...
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Mar 21, 2024
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all eyes were on the fomc and what chair powell would say.ould he indicate they are planning to do cuts? 2-3 cuts, toggling between those two is what has been done all year long. it still looks like they are penciling in for june and some of the other big banks around the globe it's a tight call. it kind of goes to the idea that they are willing to push aside the higher than expected january and february inflation numbers, let's get more data in here. we still have some time before the june cut if indeed it happens. we are so worried about every word in every cut and i remember that it wasn't that long ago beginning of the year that the market said six cuts. now we are down to three or two. is the market really focusing on this? is that what's giving it brand-new highs when is not getting the cuts it thought? katie: that's something i've been watching and wondering as well. six cuts, ok, equities rally new pair that back to three, equities still rallying. the s&p 500 hit a record and keeps going from there. it's not the expectation of fed cut
all eyes were on the fomc and what chair powell would say.ould he indicate they are planning to do cuts? 2-3 cuts, toggling between those two is what has been done all year long. it still looks like they are penciling in for june and some of the other big banks around the globe it's a tight call. it kind of goes to the idea that they are willing to push aside the higher than expected january and february inflation numbers, let's get more data in here. we still have some time before the june cut...
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Mar 6, 2024
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dollar in the near term, based on what we have heard from powell yesterday, the fomc is likely to remainous in terms of approaching the upcoming easing cycle. they are certainly in no rush to cut interest rates in the near term so with market pricing, you know, the first cut is not until june. i think the interest rate will be remaining broadly supportive of the u.s. dollar in the near term. >> that was the international economics and currency strategy associate director at cba. and remember, bloomberg users can interact with the charts shown using gtv . to catch up on key analysis and save charts for future reference as well. this is bloomberg. ♪ when you automate sales tax with avalara, you don't have to worry about things like changing tax rates or filing returns. avalarahhh ahhh >> shares of new york committee bank corp. ended higher after bloomberg revealed it received an equity investment of over $1 billion. the lender confirmed that report and said the capital injection was led by steven mnuchin's firm. let's get more on the scoop and i want to bring in sally who leads our cov
dollar in the near term, based on what we have heard from powell yesterday, the fomc is likely to remainous in terms of approaching the upcoming easing cycle. they are certainly in no rush to cut interest rates in the near term so with market pricing, you know, the first cut is not until june. i think the interest rate will be remaining broadly supportive of the u.s. dollar in the near term. >> that was the international economics and currency strategy associate director at cba. and...
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Mar 22, 2024
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weighing in on the fomc path forward, writing we continue to look for three rate cuts this year startinging quarterly. that should prove supportive for broader wrist sentiment. with us around the table is sophia. good morning. >> thanks for having me. >> what a week. on the program, our guest was talking about central banks almost tacitly accepting higher inflation. is that a you you would endorse -- is that if you you would endorse? >> they are starting to focus on other aspects of their mandates and are supportive of the idea that inflation has come down and they are making progress on that front. we are seeing policy shift. what is interesting is that central banks are cutting in tandem globally but we don't have a negative catalyst driving. for me, it's like central banks are taking out some insurance to help the growth side of their mandate, particularly in the u.s.. that is supportive of risk assets. >> do you think this could be explained by some kind of supply-side renaissance who helping these central banks out -- renaissance helping these central banks out? >> i think powell pu
weighing in on the fomc path forward, writing we continue to look for three rate cuts this year startinging quarterly. that should prove supportive for broader wrist sentiment. with us around the table is sophia. good morning. >> thanks for having me. >> what a week. on the program, our guest was talking about central banks almost tacitly accepting higher inflation. is that a you you would endorse -- is that if you you would endorse? >> they are starting to focus on other...
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one of the things coincident with that is that the fomc announced in this august of 2020 this flexible inflation targeting framework right in the middle of the pandemic which many didn't understand why the fed would take that decision then but it would give you flexibility on the 2%. saying the fed could allow inflation to rise above 2% and stay there above that level for some time because the fed had such challenges getting the price level to 2%. that was a major shift in the fed's approach do you think in retrospect what we witnessed, was that wrong and a change of review >> we said we'd do a review on a five year basis so we'll do that at the end of this year. i think the question you raise is one of the questions we'll look at. but the bigger question is, that change in the approach was really based on the fact that we had low interest rates and low inflation for a long period of time and policy was also very close to the effective lower bound so there wasn't fire power for central banks so it was a way to keep things anchored at 2% now we have entered a different period the pandem
one of the things coincident with that is that the fomc announced in this august of 2020 this flexible inflation targeting framework right in the middle of the pandemic which many didn't understand why the fed would take that decision then but it would give you flexibility on the 2%. saying the fed could allow inflation to rise above 2% and stay there above that level for some time because the fed had such challenges getting the price level to 2%. that was a major shift in the fed's approach do...
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drag them in the spotlight he is very critical, i think we're getting update with do the plot the next fomcow many cuts they want a clearer picture but definitely cut by june, let's -- >> steve what else do you take i away from this report this morning? >> so i want to make three quick points number one, for the last 12 months, 10 of those 12 months ready for this 10 of those past 12 months had to revise numbers downward i don't know what is going on here we keep getting headlines of great jobs reports, right? oh, we got it wrong, by the way, i am not you go accusing anybody of misbehavior but something is wrong the way doing these numbers on average you shouldn't see that kind of track, second of all, let me say one thing positive about thank you know where we are right now one thing that biden said last night that was true. it is true that united states today has strongest economy there is no question about it if you look has what is happening in europe, germany britain france, japan, china, not growing, so it is true that you know we are the way i like to put it maria we are the least ro
drag them in the spotlight he is very critical, i think we're getting update with do the plot the next fomcow many cuts they want a clearer picture but definitely cut by june, let's -- >> steve what else do you take i away from this report this morning? >> so i want to make three quick points number one, for the last 12 months, 10 of those 12 months ready for this 10 of those past 12 months had to revise numbers downward i don't know what is going on here we keep getting headlines...
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Mar 20, 2024
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> let's start in washington and steve liesman with what we should expect from the fed chair and the fomcay. hi, steve. >> hey, tyler. yeah, it's possible the most important answers or the most important question of this meeting, when might the fed cut rates may come at 2:00. in january, they said -- >> well, they repeat that, it's going to be like going back in time, resetting the clock once again, telling investors they still don't have that confidence to cut rates. they need more data showing declining inflation before they telegraph any rate cuts. new projections could provide clues to the policy outlook, as well. they projected in december gdp 1.4%. unemployment, 3.9%. core pce, 2.9% in january. so running a little hotter that be their forecast. and the fed funds rate with a projection of 4.6%, there is some concern that the individual fed members, once they get done projecting it, could take off one of those rate cuts from the projection there and raise their outlook for the federal reserve funds rate for the end of the year. it would take only two members to do that. i'll live it t
> let's start in washington and steve liesman with what we should expect from the fed chair and the fomcay. hi, steve. >> hey, tyler. yeah, it's possible the most important answers or the most important question of this meeting, when might the fed cut rates may come at 2:00. in january, they said -- >> well, they repeat that, it's going to be like going back in time, resetting the clock once again, telling investors they still don't have that confidence to cut rates. they need...
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. >> as powell said in the fomc meeting last week he expects puffiness and inflation and while this is will happen with the bridge i think it's not going to affect the macro story most vehicles are imported by land from canada and mexico and when we think about the stock market were really focused on fundamentals and earnings growth and that's where we seen tremendous resiliency and that's where the market is moving higher even though we see an uptick in inflation. maria: we will leave it there, great to talk with you. she double than on the markets and the economy, thank you so much, happy easter. former president trump extended his lead over president biden new polls spelling disaster for the biden administration policies, dan meuser is here with reaction to biden's efforts to open a headquarters in the keystone state, stay with us. ♪ stevens dribbles up the court... he stops! ...for the championship! nice shot, marcus! sweet, turn simulation off. tssk, tssk, not so fast. what, why? did you forget marcus? forget what? your chem exam? uggh? flashcard time! the atomic weight of boron.
. >> as powell said in the fomc meeting last week he expects puffiness and inflation and while this is will happen with the bridge i think it's not going to affect the macro story most vehicles are imported by land from canada and mexico and when we think about the stock market were really focused on fundamentals and earnings growth and that's where we seen tremendous resiliency and that's where the market is moving higher even though we see an uptick in inflation. maria: we will leave it...
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in early discussions during the fomc meetings he would point out that private equity is getting frothyed the flames or froth and 10 years passed with lower rates and easier access to credit and with the fed's expressed expectation that rates would remain low more or less forever. maria: it sounds like -- well, jim, i guess i shouldn't buy bitcoin right now, then? >> yes. well, bitcoin and i have never understood each other. [laughter] maria: that's true. jim, when you joined me back in december, you said that the u.s. dollar has been on a long slide with respect to purchasing power. i want to ask you about that. because we have $34 trillion in debt and fox business' white house correspondent edward lawrence spoke with janet yellen yesterday about the dollar. watch this. >> are you concerned about chipping away at the reserve currency status? >> i think the dollar has always been and i believe will remain the most important reserve currency. there really is no rival in terms of the depth of u.s. financial markets, the liquidity of u.s. treasuries, the institutional and legal structure u
in early discussions during the fomc meetings he would point out that private equity is getting frothyed the flames or froth and 10 years passed with lower rates and easier access to credit and with the fed's expressed expectation that rates would remain low more or less forever. maria: it sounds like -- well, jim, i guess i shouldn't buy bitcoin right now, then? >> yes. well, bitcoin and i have never understood each other. [laughter] maria: that's true. jim, when you joined me back in...
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i kind of think part of what this is, is the time -- cnbc time and fomc time, those are on differentt's -- the fomc measures of are we getting on path to get inflation down to target, that's measured over months, not minutes. >> right. >> we got a little bit of that. >> i'm not going to quote the phrase that the long term is made up of a lot of short terms. we'll leave it there. >> it was just an observation. not a criticism. >> i agree. the question i have is whether or not you think we may have played through all of that supply side improvement that we had in the inflation numbers and that '24 is a year of less progress because that process is played snout. >> -- out? >> this is a critical issue. there's one world view you can look at '23 and say yes, we had great gdp growth and unemployment didn't go up much while simultaneously inflation came way down, but that just because the supply chain was healing and it's not going to heal again. my take on that is, we learned on the way up that inflation was more persistent from negative supply shocks because they spill over from one indus
i kind of think part of what this is, is the time -- cnbc time and fomc time, those are on differentt's -- the fomc measures of are we getting on path to get inflation down to target, that's measured over months, not minutes. >> right. >> we got a little bit of that. >> i'm not going to quote the phrase that the long term is made up of a lot of short terms. we'll leave it there. >> it was just an observation. not a criticism. >> i agree. the question i have is...