paul walsh from the weather fx group joins me now on why he fears some harsh winner storms will dent retail. paul, good to see you. >> hey, maria. >> so, the weather we're seeing now and had last month, was it so bad it could materially affect bottom lines, what do you think? >> absolutely, and even going into march. this is the time of year where the weather has a significant impact on spring sales, and last year it was the warmest february/march in 118 years, so we had a really early start to the spring season, and that was very, very beneficial to retailers. going into the season this year, we're looking at a very, very difficult comp. >> so what's -- what is this latest storm expected to be, and what's the biggest impact that the weather has on retailers? >> the biggest impact for this specific storm is going to be for the first week of march. it's going to be a traffic impacter. the good news is by the time we get to the weekend it won't be as bad so we'll be back into relatively decent weather, but it's going to be cold. it's going to be much colder

with us is the weather channel's paul walsh.ome depot and lowe's will be beneficiaries of the storm, a lot of people trying to get supplies that they need. >> typically ahead of a storm like this you get a surge in sales at both the home centers as well as the mass merchants. for this storm, similar to sandy, we had very long lead time so we've been talking about the storm since tuesday. that effect is then amplified by social media, and the fact is that this is the first storm in about two years so the impact of that surge is going to be greater than what it would normally be so the home centers will do really, really well. mass will do well. specialty department stores, all of those venues will be hurt by this because people will be spending their money elsewhere and we'll lose a day tomorrow across a big part of the country, a big population center in the northeast. >> and put retailers, who loses out on that? who would you say are the biggest beneficiaries, paul? >> from a sector perfective, the biggest beneficiaries are the

paul walsh stepping down 13 years after he's been in the job. he's been succeeded by ivan manendez. >>> and australia's central bank chops interest rates to a record low while keeping its economy in check. >> announcer: you're watching "worldwide exchange," bringing you business news from around the globe. >> welcome to the start of a new week here. "worldwide exchange" was on yesterday, but it's a new week for me. kelly has now sadly gone back -- well, she's in hong kong at the moment, but she's on her way back to the other side of the pond, as well. so i'm afraid it's just me for now. we've got new car sales up 14% on the year in april in the uk. just another bit of evidence suggesting that maybe the uk economy is doing better than we thought and potentially decoupling from the rest of the eurozone if such a thing can happen. maybe. >>> on today's show, we focus in on numbers. we will speak to paul rasmussen from copenhagen. and with earnings out after the bell last night, we have the top picks in the solar space. find out what socks are set t

let's ask paul walsh, vp of weather analytics and also our own steve liesman.e were trying to make it a little bit light but if coke is saying it's a little bit soggy or cold but yet iceland drinks almost more comb per capita than almost any country in the world isn't that kind of like screw the excuse. two points is that the affect on the warm er weather is differen one place to another. korbnated drinks peaks in q2. gone back and measured the effect of weather on category sales and found that 15% of the variation in q2 of the carbonated drinks can be attributed to weather and now we're in q2 unlike any other q2 and last year was the warmest in 118 years and the driest and this year is almost the polar opposite where it's been incredibly wet and incredibly cold, so there is definitely a validity to what they are saying in terms of the impact of weather on volume of sales. >> what's more important to changing the consumption habits? is it the temperature or precipitation, ie wet? >> so far korbnated beverages, the temperature or the precipitation has a bigger i

here first on cnbc is paul walsh, the ceo of diageo joins us from london this morning.u with us. good morning. fascinating way the company has positioned itself around the world. you have torrid growth in emerging markets like latin america. well positioned in the u.s. for any improvement here. is the overriding concern still western europe, the periphery there? >> well, i think first of all you're right. we operate in 180 countries around the world. 40% of our sales are coming from the new high growth markets. where we continue to see double digit growth. and we expect that trend to continue. the u.s. is strong. so in aggregate we reported an 11% increase in operating profit and 13% growth in eps. regarding western europe, i think europe is what it is. we shouldn't expect it to change anytime soon. we saw a small contraction in sales but our profits actually increased in europe. we just have to be alert to growth opportunities, to offset what our inevitable structural declines in certain european markets. we believe we can do that. >> all right. sales of spirits, up 12

here's someone who is actually doing something about it paul walsh is the director of weather strategy and ibm global services thank you for joining us, paul >> thank you, becky. >> you know, this arctic cold spell has continued for more than a week. extended cold like this, does it actually end up having an economic impact? like a hurricane or a wildfire might? >> yeah. it certainly does, becky in fact, it's the -- the economic impact actually can be bigger than those kind of events the entire sort of eastern half of the country is frozen right now, and with that, the economy sort of slows down it doesn't grind to a complete halt, but you can imagine, if people are not out not doing the same kind of things they're usualty log they're no spending the same kind of money on the same kind of things of course then there's the impact, the potential damage impact as we heard about, pipes and the impact on the citrus crops and the impact on travel all of those things sort of combine to create this sort of slow-down in the economy. >> you mentioned the retailers i know that around the hurrican

paul walsh studies business trends for the weather channel. >> snow and rain would be hor fbl it happened on black friday, but this year it looks like retailers will dodge a bullet and we're going to see the worst of this today and really tomorrow so it will be a big travel headache. by the time we get to thanksgiving of course it will be windy and might impact the macy's day parade but black friday will be clear. we've seen through polling there's been a huge increase in the northeast for demand for outer ware as we moved into the first part of november. that sort of bodes well and as long as we can keep the snow and rain away from the weekend, it will be a good sign for the rest of the holiday season. >> paul walsh. that of course is going to be a relief for many retailers that are planning to get a jump start on black friday. kmart, toys r us, american eagles, sears, jc penney, target, kohl's planning to open early on thanksgiving. who's not? costco, bj's wholesale, nordstrom, sacks, lord and taylor, they will be closed all day thanksgiving. and now back to seema moody for a market fla

diageo, paul walsh, expanding their presence in india. early movers on wall street, igt up 4.5%. >>> take a look at the dow heat map. disney leading laggard down by 5%. green there, microsoft making a big move. top left hand corner of your screen. that corner there. it is higher, though, right now by 1.25%. >> yeah. looking for -- for various reasons. big time of the year for video games. halo gets talked about a lot this week. we'll see if we can get clarity. we haven't talked much about china. what a coincidence on the second day of their communist party congress we get great numbers on industrial production, on retail sales, on fixed as set investment. shanghai doesn't like it. maybe stimulus less likely? >> as soon as great numbers came out, china fell on great numbers. i think the chinese government wants to get employment back. they want to be able -- they really want to get gross domestic -- the chinese buyers of stocks may be underrating the firepower of the chinese government. i want to go with china not against it. buy china ind

joining us right now is paul walsh, weather strategy and business meteorologist for ibm's global business services paul, thank you for being here today. you know, as a meteorologist, you consult with companies and you try to help them navigate weather events, hurricanes and blizzards this storm was something else. what surprised you the most about irma as you were watching it >> well, both irma and the fact that irma came just a week and a half or so after harvey. two of those kind of events, one like that in a year would be amazing. but to have two of them back to back was just -- and this word has been used a lot the last month -- unprecedented the impact, the size of these storms, the fact that they both hit highly populated areas so the odds of that happening seem fairly remote but when you have an active year and when we have more and more people living in areas that are exposed, these are the kind of things that we can probably count on seeing more of over the next 10 or 15 years. >> people are already starting the rebuilding process but is there a permanent impact on a place like f

paul walsh is at the forefront of helping companies prepare for upcoming weather events. he's the director of weather strategy at ibm global services. paul, thanks for being here. >> thanks, becky >> first, if we're talking about more destructive storms, is this because companies and people are building on floodplains. is it because we're building more expensive properties than we ever did before or is it because the storms and storm surges are that much worse than they used to be >> i think it's a combination of both obviously, the sea levels are rising when you have higher sea levels and storms on top of that, the destruction of the storms is increasing and when you have properties right along the coast, there's more properties at risk, so the problem just compounds itself. >> what we just saw about boston, is that a situation that's unique, or are there other cities facing the same situation? >> absolutely other cities miami, new orleans, norfolk, where the navy is looking very hard at having to move infrastructure >> after all the devastating storms we saw last year, d

we're joined now first on cnbc by paul walsh. paul, good to see you again.ing a billion euros over the next five years in scotch whiskey production. that's a lot of money to be investing at a time when we hear that the crisis is still raging. >> yeah. actually it's a billion pounds. this will serve to increase our capacity in distillation and will allow us to continue to serve the new consumers in the new markets and continue the attractive growth rates that we've seen for the scotch whiskey category. >> paul, that investment will add something like 100 jobs, maybe add 100 more positions for apprenticeships across the region. good news on that front. sthnt for you twice to save face after that bru-ha-ha of sorts in the local brewery competition just a little while ago? >> oh, i think that is quite an irrelevant versus the magnitude of went out today. i can assure the plans we're outlining today have been in the works for a long, long time. the other thing i would say about the job front is that bear in mind the nature of our business is that for every job we

paul walsh joins us now from the weather channel in atlanta. paul, first of all, can we talk about the snam of this storm? nemo? really? >> i thought that was the name of a boat. >> well, you know, we started naming storms this year. we're up to the "n" storm. it so happened we ended up with nemo. it's kind of cashy. >> and can you tell us about this blizzard which appears to be headed to blanket most of the northeastern u.s. >> absolutely. and it's a very impactful storm and more impactful than it might otherwise have been for a couple of reasons. number one, it's been predicted since probably monday and the coverage of it has been continuing to ramp up. it's targeting very, very big. metro areas, it's impacting probably 50 million people in the u.s. the message has been amplified by social media. and so the discussions around it, the hashtag nemo is taking off and all of that is having an impact on retail. so we're seeing that, of course, that surge of people rushing to the home centers and the grocery stores and i think we're seeing it, reall

here now live from london is the ceo of diageo, paul walsh. paul, you think it's going to be a tough year. aren't people drinking more because they're depressed about the market and the economy or just switching down to cheaper product. what's going on? >> i think neither of those things. i think the numbers that we posted today shows that we're quite resilient. but in many markets we are seeing not treading down, per se, but a switch from on premise to off premise, a little bit of trading down as well. but i think the major factor is we looked to the year ahead, is that the real crisis only hit our company in november. so we still have some very tough numbers to lap in the first fiscal quarter. so we're factoring in that hill as we look at the landscape over the next 12 months. that said, we are seeing some encouraging signs coming through. but, i'll be more content that we have recovery under way when that trend is a bit firmer. >> you know i'm not completely clear on what you're saying about what is going on with the consumer within your bra

you know, this -- paul walsh, the bearer of good news for me, anyway. bad news for everybody else. >> brian, i, too, am scheduled for a turkey trot on thursday which i'm bagging. >> you and me, paul. we'll have a scotch at 9:00 a.m. paul walsh, stay warm, buddy. >> i will. thank you. >>> right now we would like to get to keith carson on what to expect from the weather. keith, you did warn us that it would be warmer today. you did not warn us that it was going to be a monsoon out there. >> yeah, it is quite rainy across much of the northeast today. and it's not that i'm going to skip that story but i'm getting to what paul was talking about. we're watching a storm system wednesday into thursday. so we have to talk about it down here on wednesday morning. down across the carolinas. and will go up the eastern seaboard. that's your freezing mark. in so in general around that and to the west of that is when you're looking at snow. one of the european models we watch is further inland to see the heavy snow off to the west and in through new england heading int

paul walsh. time. >> thanks. >>> as much $200 billion of properties in the path of this storm. diana olick joins us from washington with that angle. >> that's just from storm surmg flooding alone. core logic ran the numbers and they are staggering. for a category 4 hurricane, which is this is expected to be. in florida alone, 954,000 homes are at risk of damage with a reconstruction value over $189 billion. in daytona beach, which could get the worst, there are 97,000 homes with rekruk value of -- 138 coastal homes in georgia lie in its path. there, 30 billion. by the time it gets to south carolina, forecasters expect it will have weakened to a category 2 storm, but 124,000 homes are at risk of damage. now, the numbers are considerably higher today than they were when hurricane andrew hit in 1992. florida, as you know, was the epicenter for the historic housing boom and bust and construction there is strong again. more than 200,000 new homes have been built in the decade along the florida eastern

we spoke to paul walsh from the weather channel earlier this morning.t two weeks, maybe a month left of this. how much worse could it get for retailers? >> i think it is worth for retailers. the month of january and february, we're fortunate it's a small portion of their overall sales. they'll have to take markdowns, given that the first hit of spring merchandise is supposed to sell during presidents' day weekend. >> people don't necessarily want to be buying bikinis and resortwear when it is 10 degrees below 0 and there's three feet of snow on the ground. how does the inventory mix look when you go to the stores? is there too much of it, is it the right mix. >> most of the clearance merchandise for winter has been sold through. in the stores there is a lot of the spring merchandise, whether it's the t-shirts, jeans or dresses. it's lighter colors but also a lot of prints and patterns. it's getting into the spring mood with not a lot of winter goods left. that's why we're seeing accessories sell better than apparel. >> you mentioned discounting. will re

earlier on the street, paul walsh told me that the industry will be forced to move higher amid the price that even though pricing will be more challenging. shares are trading lower down by 4%. not alone in raising prices and anheuser bush doing the same thing they needed to compensate for lower sales volumes. will more expensive bruce cause the business to go flatter? david silver is here from wal street strategies. it makes mow sense to me at all. i was talking to the ceo earlier today and he said they too are going to raise prices. that seems like economics 101. you don't raise when the steal sales are slowing and there is a recession. >> you look past when the recession will be over. beer prices have been constandpoint and strong. if you are looking 10 years back, prices have increased. the average kind of beer, 16 ounces costs 1.20. you could never find anything near 1.20. you couldn't even get a soed a. >> you definitely can't get a soda for 1.20. i was just thinking that. when you raise prices, is there a chance ta people substitute brands? when it comes to beer, people are loyal t

paul walsh.eave it there with a happy thanksgiving to you, sir. >> thank you. >>> now, what do kraft, yum brands, general mills and john deere and uber have in common? >>> president obama is under attack. not from republicans but one of the most powerful democrats in the senate. chuck schumer. you won't believe what he's saying about obamacare coming up on "the closing bell." being a private banking client isn't what it used to be. from san francisco to silicon valley, boston private bank works with all kinds of people who are innovating, building, contributing -- individuals, business owners, private partnerships, non-profits, families planning their financial futures. people like you. if you want the individual attention and expertise your financial needs deserve, this is your time. this is your private bank. >>> welcome back. uber reportedly close to finalizing financing to value it between $35 billion and $40 billion. here are some other companies in that valuation range. we suspect you've he

more to the point, here's is paul walsh, vice president of weather analyticth at the weather company. paul, what's the threat here? what's the strategic threat? >> larry, we've done analysis and it's been done in the academic literature that shows when the weather's bad, it generally favors republicans. it's really a function of demographics and being able to get out and get to vote. historically, that has been a benefit. what we're seeing now for tomorrow is that it's going to be raining in northern florida. probably rain morgue than it was in 2000. in 2000 with the gore v. bush race so tight, there are some that say the rain in northern florida might have played a part in the outcome of that election. >> paul, let me just ask you, because i had senator rubio on. i asked him directly about northern florida. i asked him about the panhandle. i guess from jacksonville right over to the panhandle. now, that's republican territory. >> right. >> you're saying in this case, if there's a big rainstorm, the republicans may get washed out. >> no, actually, it's more beneficial for republicans

let's bring in the weather channel's paul walsh. he is taking a look at some of the retailers. . hey, tyler, how are you? >> what areas do you think would be the winners in this, in terms of retail? >> you know, there's been this interesting conversion in increasing or increasing ability to predict these kind of storms so we have been talking about the storm since tuesday. and when you overlay with that the new media channels that we have, it provides a voice to consumers in the area impacted that hasn't been there before. what that means is that before the storm we've gotten more people heading to the stores, home debow, grocery stores and stocking up and because of the long leads going into the storm, we have seen a lot of sort of positive momentum from that. the sort of usual suspects will do really good going into the storm. we may see negative impact into the weekend. >> what would negative impacts be? who is at risk from this? obviously from airlines i guess. they get disrupted but make up the flight eventually. and i guess some retailers are losers here. you're not going

. >>> let's brevard in chief meteorologist paul walsh, superstorm sandy, irene, snow, drought.stand my point. ka tri katrina. are these becoming more frequent? or is it media coverage? >> i think it's both. useal there's a market up trend in these kinds of events. two reasons for it. number one, there's just more exposure, more things in the way of these serious events, but we are seeing sort of a steady increase in these kinds of events. you can't pinpoint climate change, for example, but we are seeing these increased exposures action and insurance companies are paying attention to that, and thinking about that. >> do you think that pricing will go higher visit of this? >> yeah, we've seen pricing going up over the last couple years as it relates to things like hurricane sandy, irene, all these events we've been seeing, really over the last 20 or so years, but really over the last two, three years, we've seen these incredibly volatile weather conditions. >> but just to follow up on that, wouldn't it be unfair if they used this particular tornado as an excuse to up their pricin

the weather channel's paul walsh joins us with the business impact here. paul, the holidays are a crucial time for many businesses. who is being impacted the most weekend? >> yeah. interestingly maria, the weather this year is largely impacting business by the weather last year. the weather last year was incredibly warm, incredibly dry. any type of weather that we have this year threatens store traffic and also demand. so the draco impact, although limbed to the chicago area, may be more significant than you would normally think because of the fact that we've got such a difficult comparison to last year's balmy winter weather. >> what about retail, are you seeing positives on that end or is this going to hurt retail? >> no, i think the timing of the storm actually is pretty good for retail. tomorrow the weather is going to be clear for most major markets. it's the last weekend before christmas. and there is going to be plenty of availability for people to go in will be good. i think the restaurant sector may have it more difficult in december because, again

. >> weather channel's paul walsh looking at how saentd's latest path will lead to a domino effect down the road. what can you tell us? >> the storm is moving in. up with of the things that's ironic about the timing of the storm is that prior to the storm hitting, this weekend, specifically saturday, we saw very, very strong traffic. thap compared to last year when the snowtober storm hit. i would dpop see a little upside when retail sales come out. november, game over. it looks like we'll lose the first week of retail sales for the largest retailers in the northeast. >> what about -- let's talk about that. you're saying we have a bit of an upside but when we look at november numbers, the numbers are right in sandy's cross hairs. >> absolutely. what impact do you think this has on retail sales? >> citigroup was out with an analysis they did. they expect that in november we could see a 2% or 3% drop in specialty retailers of folks not selling. goods you need in front of a hurricane. the traffic hit is going to be very, very strong this week. that's because of the weather. now, probably m

and paul walsh senior vice president at atmospheric and environment research. good to have you on the program, welcome. >> hi, maria. >> hi, there. paul, you're a meteorologist who helps retailers to understand the impact on weather on sales. what you are seeing this holiday shopping season, and what did the snow, what kind of impact did the snow have. >> well, obviously it was very impactful and very dramatic, but ironically we had a super-saturday snowfall last year that was more impactful in terms of geography and timing, or so net we have an easier comp. so i don't see that this storm is going to have a negligable impact on retail sales this year. >> pam, i know that you've been doing checks this weekend, what were your observations? >> i would tend to agree with paul. i started early in the day on saturday, hit two malls and the stores were definitely crowded early on saturday. i do think that the shoppers did get a bit concerned about the upcoming storm and began to clear out. probably around 3:00 in the afternoon. i was in the malls until 8:00 p.m., and b

hot heat is expected to continue, so what is in store for buyers and sellers in joining us is paul walshl. good to have you on the show. we've heard about the potential impact of corn crops. what about the consumer, what does a heat wave do to the consumer? >> it's an interesting time to have this sort of a heat wave where people will be out and about for the fourth of july holiday. the fact that we've lost power to 2 million people is going to impact people in terms of their ability to get out and about. but it in some ways from a retail perspective, there may be an up sight where people will be actually going to the malls just to keep cool and have something to do.sight where people will b actually going to the malls just to keep cool and have something to do. >> do they actually buy, does it translate into dollars for the retailer themselves? >> not necessarily. the sweet spot in terms of the weather driving sales is generally in the earlier spring and earlier in the fall. so it's not necessarily a benefit in that term. but the fact that you might have more people in a store at least

in fact, this is business weather expert paul walsh. he told me several areas are breaking snow records this year. >> this year, snow has been particularly impactful because we had so much snow. in areas like chicago and new york and philadelphia, we are approaching record levels. what that means is that municipalities have to spend money to clean up the snow and a lot of these municipalities are starting to get close to actually running out of money. >> you know it's a bad year when they're running out of sand and running out of the salt. now layer on top of the snow the cold. here's where we have looked at, they put together a graphic for me over at the weather channel, thank you very much, of temperatures compared to average. you can see a vast swath of this country pretty much half of it, where a whole lot of people live, much colder to colder than normal, even all the way down to florida. especially down here, where you get cold in the south, where they build homes in the wintertime. then the numbers aren't really seasonally adjust

paul walsh of the weather channel and joe of weather bell analytics.this storm stack up with other storms? >> well, as -- as was just reported, it looks like it could be one of the strongest on record. according to dr. jeff masters, our expert with the weather company. he suggests this could be the strongest one we've seen on record. doesn't mean the strongest ever but the strongest storm on record. it's quite a storm. >> joe, you say there are similarities to the 1935 labor day hurricane that struck the keys. how so? >> yeah. that's a more remarkable storm. let's remember this is 15 degrees north of the warmest body in the world, the southwest pacific basin. 1935 labor day hurricane where people actually survived and were in the storm. this was satellite estimates people were looking at here. we didn't have satellites back in 1935, at least not that i know of. people said the winds were over 200 miles an hour. when they assessed the damage, a lot of people believed the winds were over 200 miles an hour. that's a storm, again, about 550 miles further n

the weather channel's paul walsh is here.hose are the numbers you get up in a high rise in the middle of the city. >> extremely strong winds for the northeast. this low pressure system is now the lowest on record. >> and that's significant why? low pressure is what's -- >> that's what is giving us the strong winds, really strong gradeients. even though the storm has been classified as a non-tropical event, not downgraded, no longer tropical. what we're calling at the weather channel a superstorm. >> that's out in queens area there, sort of behind where the storm is at this point, northeast of the storm. >> right. >> is that typical of what you get in the north side of a storm is where you're going to get most of the wind anyway is. >> and the right quadrant so that basically is this area. it's just now moving through, so we're getting into the strongest part of the winds which is why we're seeing, of course, with the high tide also the flooding that we're seeing now with, you know, the folks up in that area. >> we're talking

. >>> let's get to the weather channel's paul walsh with some of the numbers on sandy's likely retailmpact. thanks for putting in long days. we know the usual suspects are being sold out. water, booze, whatever. what else do you expect to sell? >> interestingly, the storm hit, and where the threat of the storm came in overlapped where the snowtober storm happened last year. that saturday, the last day of the fiscal october last year got hit by the storm. this year they got hit by the rush of people coming in to actually buy the stuff they needed. there's a tail wind for october. i would expect when retail results come out on thursday, there might be a benefit. >> tail wind for october incomes and headwind for november numbers because we're pulling ahead demand and for some these are unplanned purchases, right? >> yes. >> they are not expected so eating into someone's budget they might otherwise use later in the year. >> we go into november and we have potential for massive power outages. fiscal reports saying this could have a 2% to 3% impact on retail same store sales for the special

. >>> now, let's talk more about the economic blast of this storm with another paul, paul walsh. he is a business analyst at the weather channel. it's so cold, my tongue is tied. here's what we were debating. we have these fiery debates that never make it to tv. we were debating before the show how much do people really change their spending habits? the weather, it's nice, it's a story we can all talk about, but do we actually act and spend differently because of the weather? >> we do. we actually on weather.com, we are doing polling of consumers to ask how the weather's impacted their purchase intent. we did it through the holiday season this year. we found as you would expect that people were purchasing a lot more things that you would need when it's much colder than it was both last year and compared to normal. we saw huge increases in outer wear, we saw increases in home goods that you need to keep warm. so basically that helps to shift the spend away from what might be discretionary into things you actually need when it's cold and it was much colder than last year and is con

joining us once again is paul walsh, vice president of weather analytics for the weather channel.at -- you have what he a chance to crunch some of these numbers. yesterday, we talked about retail. >> yep. >> today, you are taking a broader look what are you coming up with in terms of the impact? >> so i have been talking to some economists out there and sort of getting their senses, early days, of course, but chatted with mark zandi yesterday. they are estimating that binds the location where the storm hit, probably cost the is economy about $150 to $20 billion, $10 billion per day. wells fargo thinking it could be a .1 to .2% impact on q 4 gdp. >> now, there's the rebuilding, of course, which might offset some of that. >> yep. >> but that takes a while to be impacted and to be really factored into the equation, right? >> i talked to someone yesterday who is thinking we will see a benefit when we go into 2013 and 2014 increasing his growth estimates for 2013 and bringing down unemployment outlook based on the effects bound to happen as the money starts to flow in and rebuild beyon

we have a map i just want to show you here that our friend paul walsh over at the weather channel putogether. you can see that all that blue part is colder than normal. the dark blue part is much colder than normal. that comes against some parts of the country that are warmer than normal but not a whole lot of people live in some of those parts where it is warmer. >> does it make us second-guess the accuracy of data points that come out? in other words, does it complicate the interpretation of the data release? >> brilliant question. not only now but later because here's what happens with weather. you get a decline, then you get a weather related snap-back. so it may be several months before we get a real feel for the actual trend of the economy and some of these numbers when it comes to snow, 58 inches in chicago so far. just average from here would be the fourth biggest snowfall -- >> here's the problem. illinois, new jersey, these are states with long term fiscal challenges. these are huge expenses they've got to face. ultimately, are storms stimulative? >> they can be. there can b

we had a slowdown. >> let's bring paul walsh into this conversation from the weather channel. you look at what's been happening with the storm and what that means for retail sales, what's it going to mean this time around? >> it's very interesting. the leadup to the storm which is generally positive for retail in general from a traffic perspective, this year it actually topped snowtober from last year. the weekend traffic was phenomenal. >> because people knew the storm was coming. >> because we're so late into the hurricane season and into fall, that traffic i think benefited more than just the home centers and the usual suspects. i think there's probably a lot of people even in the malls so the net on a comp basis, the storm was positive for october retail sales. >> people were in the malls? canned goods i get but in the malls buying clothing? >> probably a halo effect. we are in fall. predictions are that it will turn cold afterwards. there was more benefit than would normally be in the middle of hurricane season simply because there is more people out shopping buying thing

and here on "squawk on the street" is the company's ceo paul walsh, this morning from london. . good morning to?0gq you. good quarter, although the cfo talks about -- and i'll put it in his words, we don't want to declare victory and say growth will accelerate as there are too many factors in the world that could impact consumer confidence. can you elaborate in the uncertainty you're seeing largely out of europe this year? >> well, first of all, we're very pleased with the numbers we've posted. 7% growth on the top line, 9% growth and a 16% increase in eps. so a good first half. now, what we're trying to do here is show we expect the trends to continue, but we would not advise people to assume that they will accelerate. and that's what's meant by not declaring victory. sure, europe is a tough market, in aggregate we expect it to remain flat. we're seeing good progress in the united states, the economy there seems to be progressively improving, and, of course, 40% of our business is in the emerging markets. and we've seen an 18% growth on the top line from these very dynamic, e

. >> he took over from paul walsh last year. joining us for more, jessica ground, uk equities fund manager at schroeders. nice to see you. they're saying we're weathering the storm. clearly, investors think now. >> i think for diageo, the trend was a slowdown and i think that disappointed. they had brought down expectations on the top line growth they were targeting. and people have been paying a premium for did i ageo's market exposure. china and nigeria were disappointing. so it's fantastic that north america and western europe were better. >> big staple cash drainage of companies who got a premiums because they were also -- you're getting more than half your income now from emerging markets and that has come back to bite a little bit, i suppose. >> i think it has. i think, you know, as we've seen, the other big news about the taper coming down by 10 billion and people are now really focusing on not just the slowdown, but also what the removal of liquidity means for emerging markets. and cop assumers, you know, it's just been

lets bring in paul walsh, director of the weather strategy, good to have you here. >> hi michelle >>hould business be evacuated? >> certainly businesses along with everybody else, they should be evacuating and doing the best they can and making sure employees and customers are safe a lot of businesses are doing that when you look at the size of the storm, what can they expect and what should they be doing? i was actually with you guys all day long during hurricane sandy and this looks to me a lot like hurricane sandy in turns of severity and the warning that is we are seeing and sort of the economic out put that's impacted i talked to marc this morning, about 3.5% of the gdp is made in texas. the largest economy in the world, entire state of texas and louisiana is going to be impacted significantly for many, many days. the impact of this is going to be skaignificant and it is going to be significant beyond the region and the entire country. >> we all see the video of storms hitting the coast, big waves and like our jackie rep t reporter out there it is been raining down there for a w

earlier, paul walsh said strong growth in emerging markets would help jaut offset weakness in europe. >> europe is more like luster. we continue to see difficulty with consumer expenditure in southern europe. but it's a testament to the strength of the business that we can absorb that shock. >> i'm doing my part for diagio sales, ross. i'll just leave tlit. bskyb shares, they're trading higher after the tv operator posted better-than-expected earnings and announced higher dividends. the company said adjusted profit is up 8%. bskyb's ceo said the company was positioned to gain market share. >> i think we're gaining in all the market, whether that's tv, services or communications which is where about one in three of our customers take broadband from us. we're closing in on some of the market leaders. i think that's a big area of head room opportunity for us. >> all right. yes. i mean, you know -- >> super thursday. >> super thursday. what do you make of that? is it medium stocks or -- >> i mean, we don't have a specific -- i mean, technology has actually been one of the trends that we'v

richard hastings consumer strat jinch with global hunters security and paul walsh, they're teaming up to forecast this holiday retail season as well as the weather's effect on it. sharing their thoughts first on cnbc. gentlemen, great to have you with us. >> thank you. >> paul, let's start off with you. is the weather going to be colder than what we've seen in the past? >> actually what we're looking at for the key holiday season for the key part of the country is the temperatures to actually trend a little bit warmer than last year, and in the northeast, because of the comparison to last year's very snowy weather, if you recall we had a snowstorm the weekend before christmas last year, which was literally a snowmageddon for retailers, we see the weather this year as being in the net positive at least for the core holiday season. >> but too warm is bad, isn't it, for retailers? people don't want to buy scarves and hats when it's still warm out. >> it improves the traffic and they start spending more on technology, but it is good for store traffic and you get some conversion. in you're

joining us from london paul walsh ceo of diageo. good morning, sir. thanks for being with us. >> good morning. >> what happened? >> well, let's first all of get a few things straight. organic sales were down 2%. we have actually got underlying eps growth of 5%. and earnings are in line with the market. in fact, we've reiterated full year guidance. on the back of that, nene wheve what's been one of the most turbulent economic periods we've generated free cash flow and have the confidence to increase our dividend by 5%. >> that's terrific but i'm sure your business model is not based on your sales declining 2% every year. >> it's not. i much prefer them to grow as they have been but actually the half year was made up of two quarters. the first quarter sales decline of 6% which we expected. because we were lacking numbers prelehman. the second quarter sales were up 2%. so i think when luke at overall in the quarter, sales down 2%, given the economic backdrop, we feel that's a pretty resilient performance and we hope that from this base we can build going

let's bring in paul walsh from the weather channel to break it down. patterns? >> it's very unusual, very volatile. a trend we've been seeing for a long time. it happened at exactly the wrong time for retailers. we went into the holiday season with a week less than last year. one weekend less. we've been seeing weather that's incredibly volatile. much, much colder than last year. of course, for the final shopping weekend, we've seen all kinds of wacky weather, as you said which is impacting store traffic. both demand and also traffic has been impacted and weather's been a wild card this year for retail. >> yeah. i guess i just get a little skeptical. every time we talk about weather being volatile because it's weather. it's volatile. so, i think from retailer's point of view, the question becomes, is there something this year that's so out of the ordinary that it's really going to have an impact relative to years past? and maybe it's the warm weather in the northeast or maybe it's the tornadoes down south. i mean what do you really jumps out here? >> w

tracking the storm's impact both in terms of snowfall and economically speaking it's paul walsh, weather steve liesman who has been fighting the snow in recent weeks and poring over storm relating economic data. paul, how bad will it get? >> the storm right now we're seeing across the southeast and we'll see it up here in the northeast later tonight and tomorrow is really, really big. it's a huge ice storm. the weather service uses words like historic and catastrophic and crippling. it's another big winter blast and it's going to have implications certainly for february and maybe for the first part of q1. >> paul, is the historic piece of this though the size of the storm, how late it is in the year, or the amount of precipitation? what is it that's so unusual and historic about this storm? >> it's the amount of ice that's going to be falling. some areas it could create an inch of ice. there are going to be a lot of trees down, roof damage. cars will be impacted. it's going to have an impact on the insurers for sure as we look at the first part of the year. >> that's a great point. so, s

for more on the impact let's bring in paul walsh at the weather company. along with our panel, larry kudlow late coming in but we're glad you made it down here because of the weather. paul first to you. we'd like to get your sense of what kind of overall economic impact you think this particular storm will have. >> kelly, i think one of the things we have to take into account here is this storm is actually happening on a monday afternoon. it will probably impact us on tuesday and wednesday. it's hitting a large population sen tircenter but the fact it's happening at the end of january, not on a weekend, and it is winder winder -- winter, i think the impact will be minimal. it's not a significant game changer. it will be impactful for a couple days but another allwe'll not see a huge impact. >> larry, what is it like out there? >> it's winter. >> what, the snow? tell me? >> it's winter stuff. >> where are you from? >> upstate new york roots are weeping right now. >> i agree with the gentleman. no economic impact. you have your canned goods, your gold your gu

weather channel's paul walsh forecasts colder than normal temps will continue for the next couple ofstorm will hurt foot traffic temporarily but then again it is christmas. gifts have to be bought somehow. bill? >> somehow. they'll have to be delivered by drone. >> whatever it takes. >> what a concept. thank you, courtney. you know, one retail stock that's been on an incredible run no matter the weather has been tjx, parent of stores like tj maxx and marshall's. look at the chart so far this year with a gain of 47% as it enjoys this ride. will it stay red hot, no matter how cold it gets. you're ready? we're setting ourselves up with a stock brawl. >> stephanie saying she's not buying at these levels, but chad morgan continues to add to his positions. welcome to you both. stephanie, you not interested in tjx, why? >> no. just to be clear, we own it. we were buying this a couple years ago at $38 share. with 47% gain year to date, if you look at the valuation at 19 times forward estimate, that's well above five and ten-year historical average. >> you're not buying it right now? >> not r

joining us right now is paul walsh. he is chief meteorologist at weather fx which is part of the weather channel which is now known as the weather company. >> that's right. >> paul, thank you for coming in. we're still struggling on the jersey shore and the tri state area here. they haven't recovered from hurricane sandy. >> it seems like just yesterday i was embedded here for hurricane sandy, now turn around it's time to start taking a look at the next hurricane season. we've had sort of two back to back big storms in the northeast which is really unusual. it's statistically unusual. >> and this one has been a tough one to recover from. >> weren't there three and 54? >> yes. >> three huge ones twice as big in '53. >> but we have not seen al gore's -- what was that, 2005? the one that was going the happen again and is again and again. that has not happened. >> no. >> the frequency has been even less than what you would expect. >> what we're seeing now is related to short-term -- or i should say medium term phenomenon. >>

joining us now is paul walsh. good morning. >> good morning. >> weather broadly across the country was a little warm at first and now temps are dropping. what do you see playing out? >> november for the second half of the month of much warmer than normal which meant consumers were holding off on buying those winter items. as we moved into december now, sort of a rude awakening for us here on the east coast. because transitioned from being abnormally warm to being seasonally cold that impact will be much stronger than it normally would be from a retail perspective last december was the warmest december on record. this goes back 120 years. had a significant impact on consumer demand. >> like no snow east of the rockies until early part of the year. >> exactly. a horrible impact on department store retailers because there wasn't any demand for apparel which makes up a big part of their assortments. this year it's almost going lay up for retailers that we have an easy comparison from last year. predictions are we'll s

timb the weather channel's paul walsh reported that colder than normal temps will continue.l. the current winter storm cleon will hurt foot traffic generally. it is christmas. >> we're getting tweets from minnesota where they're expecting another foot of snow. >> but they're tough there, carl. they go out and shop any way. if they don't, maybe they shop from macy's online. it's christmas. >> thanks, court. meantime, chinese telecom reportedly no longer wants to stay in the u.s. market. in an interview with a french news site, the company says after years of accusations of cyber espionage, it will cut ties with the u.s. ironic it takes place as the vice president is on its way to beijing. >> i've got clarification on that, carl. talked to them this morning. they told me they're not pulling out of the u.s. market. but they're not investing in growth here because they feel like they're blocked. they're going to continue to serve customers, sell hand sets but they're not making any kind of big investment push on trying to grow their network equipment business. now, at the same t

paul walsh says the lingering cold impacts 60% of u.s.s after the coldest march in nearly two decades. and in a research note to clients, jpmorgan analyst matt boss says the ruling for seasonal apparel is a one-degree temperature expecting an 8% change in dresses and short sales. that's a big number for just a little temperature change. carl? >> people are making hay out of the facts their comps over the past few quarters have gotten smaller and smaller. we'll see how much really was weather. thank you, court. >>> check out the markets with session highs going on. dow up 133. s&p up 17. with those two, they have reclaimed roughly half of what they lost yesterday. the s&p was down 36 yesterday. so 15.50 and above is making up more than half the loss. we'll see what happens this afternoon. a lot of this happening since europe closed a half hour ago. after the break, some final thoughts on the market rebound today as the dow is back up triple digits. again, that session high, back in a couple minutes. (announcer) at scottrade, our clients tr

joining us right now is jan niffen and paul walsh. by the way, wie want to hear frm you.d your shopping yet? log on and take our snap poll. in the meantime, let's start with the question of the weather. this is a scary start to things for people who got shellacked last year can they expect more of this? >> i don't think so. we're looking at a holiday shopping season that's going to be more benign. i think it'll be on net actually milder than the weather we had last year. i think there'll be fewer sort of traffic limiting events. based primarily on statistics and regressing back which typically happens with weather. all in all, i'm pretty bullish for retail weather as we go into the season. i think this polar plunge we're seeing right now is really happening just in time especially for department store retailers who basically had a little bit of the -- >> let me ask you this. obviously i'm not a meteorologist, but the farmer's almanac says this year could be worse than last year. what do you know that they didn't? >> i'd say trust but verify with the farmer's almanac. it's

as paul walsh, remember we used to have him on all the time whenever we had storms?so if the forecast is going to land -- >> is he talkting about for weather? >> spending related to weather follows the forecast for the weather. >> meaning i get supplied for things if i know there's a big storm. >> if you think it's coming and a big question how much you believe it. it's really interesting i went back and looked -- let me shut this computer up. i'm fascinated by forecast of the weather. they nailed this storm five days out in the western gulf of mexico was going to hit over here in florida five days earlier, and they had it pretty much within a 50-mile range. but of course it didn't hit the tampa area. it went down a little bit south, so there was some spending related to the storm that never hit, and then of course there's a bounce back on the other side of it. also the way this thing hit and one of the other storms hit in appalachia is very different from anything else we've ever seen. >> steve, thank you. >> pleasure. >> seeou y later. >>> when we come back we're g