mr. lucky. chris: and boy is he blessed. he won his senate against alan keyes. will the obama luck hold again? next time republicans get to run against in 2012, g.o.p. goes on offense and w. could be forgotten. two, four, six, eight, who do we investigate. if the republicans win this fall, they could hold hearings, subpoena witnessesarst, t each day with a prayer and end it with a probe. i'm chris matthews. welcome to the show. we have john heilemann, norah o'donnell and kelly o'donnell and "newsweek"'s howard fineman. barack obama has past his 49 birthday and he is president and he is one lucky guy. remember obama won his first race in the u.s. senate just six years ago. republicans ended up with alan keyes. mccain who had been a strong candidate faded in defending the bush record. and this year, while the numbers don't look good for the democrats. the g.o.p. could be split between the tea party candidates and the regular party. and that obama luck may hold when he runs again in 2012. modren persidents have one strike in terms unless they face a commanding opponent. john, he has been lucky? >