the fed wants to get started.nless the conditions change between now and then or if oil falls more or there is some other disruption for the fed to keep its timetable as it to get ahead of what it expects will be strong growth. one footnote on this -- the fed says for 2017, like 2016 and 2015, they believe that the u.s. economy growth will be beyond the ability to grow, which is a way of saying that we will see a jobless rate the klein potential for the next three years. that is what the fed needs to get ahead of and not think too much about what janet yellen called the transitory effects of oil the klein. -- oil decline. it is likely the impact will not pass through too much. >> ok, we have about a minute left. let's continue on that oil beat for a moment. the sharp decline in oil prices could it be overall beneficial for the u.s. economy? >> without question. we consumed millions of gallons of oil last year. bill dudley -- one of the three most powerful at the fed -- said a month or so ago, a $20 drop in the pri

a rather dovish fed overall.ther be lakes to the party then run the risk that they shoot the dollar up even higher and hurt exports and this economy and send us back into recession. so it may not be the best policy right now, but it is all we have, and they will likely staying the course. >> trish is focusing on an important point here -- taking away the punch bowl. you can take away the punch bowl in a number of ways. one is through fed rate hikes. the other is through a stronger currency. manager conditions are tightening as a result of the stronger dollar. it is doing a lot of work for the fed. >> trish mentioned weaker inflation. let us assume for the sake of argument that we are halfway through 2015 and inflation is still below the 2015 target. does that mean the fed would necessarily not move on raising interest rates because of the? >> it does not mean necessarily they will not move. they have talked about taking the leap of faith and confidence inflation will turn around. we see a significantly lower unem

the fed does try to anticipate, and it's here where i disagree with the fed in terms of their expectations. remember the dots, brooen, that come out periodically when there's a press conference from the fed members, and those stocks indicate that they think that the long-term inflation rate is 2% and that the long-term real interest rate for fed funds would be close to 2%, much like the taylor rule. right now the market thinks that the fed will reach 2% by 2019. by february of 2019. i don't disagree with that. i am suggesting that the pace will be very, very slow, and if 2019 at 2% is the number, then the treasury market is fairly priced. it doesn't mean that you've got a huge capital gain ahead of you if you are an investor in treasuries, but it means that it's fairly priced if the fed moves at that slow price. >> you know, this question comes from a viewer via twitter, bill, and it's a better question than i could ask, so i'm just going to steal his question. david duran, do you believe a rate increase is needed in the market more than just symbolically? do we need a rate increase for an

uncertainty about when the fed is going to hike, even after today's fed meeting.certainty there. all options are open. it could be this summer. it could be later. we won't know until the march meeting, which is kind of an overhang in the market. it creates investor uncertainty. that also creates opportunities. so when there's sell-offs across-the-board, we look for bargains. liz: we have volatility jumping. and no surprise there. anybody who looks at that, i'm make a trade on that is not really intelligent. right? you look at specific names well-head. down the road. you said facebook will hit $100. do you still feel that way? what's your time horizon for that? >> it's not in the immediate future, honestly. i think facebook will be in the triple digits in the next 12 months or so. the reason i don't say in the next 30 or 60 days, it really echoes, mark zuckerberg's sentiment that he's in no rush or hurry to start to monetize the billion users he has under his thumb that are on instagram and whatsapp. however, once he starts to even try to monetize the billion users

see coming from the fed. ultimately the market is going to set interest rates and what people think about what the fed is doing. all of that is very important. >> where do you think rates are going? the market is going to take them? >> first off, the federal reserve will do what they said they're going to do. the jan yellin and the fed will raise the third quarter from a zero rate to something maybe half a point, quarter of a point in there. more of a symbol that we're no lon longer in the emergency room. discharge the mrch room and interest rates out maybe five or ten years probably up in the 2.75% range by the end of next year. 3% on the ten year because the economy in the u.s. is improving. labor market is improving. financial markets improving. when some of this oil volatility works its way through -- >> usually, the u.s. economy, steven strong enough to pull the rest of the world, which it sure seems like it's doing to some degree right now, particularly europe and china and japan. or will those economie

welcome to this fed day street signs.ned where i still on assignment and melissa lee is still with us. bill gross is also going to lay out one of his favorite fund picks coming up right now. melissa, how do we look hfd the fed? >> as expected brian. stocks right now are slightly hire, but really in a wait and see pattern here for the federal reserve decision. the dow jones industrial average is up by just one-third of a percent. take a look at where the ten-year note is yielding. 1.78%. that will be key to keep in mind as we are awaiting that decision. the dollar index is slightly stronger. gold is about flat where the action really is brooen today. it's in the oil markets. we are at session lows right now below $45 a barrel and that could impact the fed's view of inflation right now. >> all right. ellet us bring in our all-star panel. david kelly with jp morgan funds, brian kelly, and our senior economics reporter steve liesman here with us through the fed decision as well. david, first to you. your expectation from the

the feds said it will remain patient about raising interest rates. with that money zipped out of stocks and into bonds. here's how the major equities looked at close. the nasdaq down 43 and the s&p 500 lower by 27. u.s. treasury prices by contrast sored as yields moved lower. the rate on the ten-year bond closes at a fresh 20 month low on the 30 year it dipped to 2.3%. a record low. oil prices fell to a nearly 6-year low after the government reported record high stockpiles of fuel. two times as much as expected. raising fresh worries of the global glut amid demand. now more on today's big fed decision. >> reporter: janet yellin and fellow monetary policy makers wrapped up the first fed meeting of the year by making clear no rate hike is imminent. the overall economy has been expanding at a solid pace. and thanks to falling energy prices plus a strong dollar inflation has fallen even further below the feds 2% target. reason enough it can be patient in beginning to normalize the stance of monetary policy. leading economists and fed watchers are looking

how do you trade this fed statement? >> well, i think rick really nailed it when he talked about the international goings on. let's face it the bond prices have just powered through the shorts like they were marshawn lynch in beast mode. we've really got a lot of money saying the u.s. is the place to be and they're going to keep coming there until yields prove them otherwise. >> but i don't understand what you're saying and what everybody's point is about international markets. what is the point about what the fed is going to do here? >> well -- >> go ahead. >> it's not so much the point about what the fed is saying they're going to do it's that they're saying for the first time we're worried about international markets so money -- >> right. isn't that a dovish development? >> yes. >> keep in mind -- i don't know if you can go to me but keep in mind that while the ecb made this pretty big move in terms of quantitative easing and it's going to put more upward pressure on the dollars which will hurt exports, but another th

the fed or maybe the fed to the market.ncern about undershooting inflation or adding worries about overseas growth could hit the market. the fed has to be concerned about the alternative, pushing ahead adjustment one way or the other to march. the question is how does yellen want the honeymoon to end, whitmore or less volatility in the markets. >> steve, does yellen need to be talking more frequently in between pressers? >> we know she's not talking a lot. i looked those morning, last kind of monetary policy economic speech she gave back in november, that's apart from the press conference. clearly following a path of letting the press conferences do most of the speaking and guidance. the question is whether or not we're approaching a time we need more guidance not less from the federal reserve. >> thank very much steve liesman. >>> yahoo! last night reportingite fourth quarter and full year '14 result but was also presenting its plan to separate ow its 384 million share stake in alibaba, more than 15% of that company in a t

i think the fed has got it wrong. >> where is it right now? >> the fed thinks is between 5.2-5.5%.much lower than that. the chicago fed has put out a recent paper around 5%, going down to 4.5% in the next to year's. we are not at full employment. if we were near full employment, which growth would be accelerating already. >> where is their nominal gdp trip point? >> they can't have the confidence to act. this is about confidence. you can have inflation that is not at goal. we don't have to be at the 2% goal to raise rates. we have to be convinced it will move there. can you be convinced he will get strong enough sustained aggregate demand to move to that goal without wage growth? >> you have that great observation about the five-year forward curve, it varies and harry and -- >> we are looking at the futures market. equity futures getting a pop yhere. we are seeing mcdonald's price in the premarket. we are also watching the 10 year yield and the treasury market overall. the 10 year yield of three basis points. the euro slightly stronger against the dollar. >> good morning, iran. --

no but the fed doesn't! the fed doesn't. >> okay. but hang on. >> one at a time. >> they don't know what they're doing. >> the fed ended quantitative easing and signaled the next move is up. >> how much good did the last couple of batches do? >> hold on rick n. that time frame. >> no! >> the markets by themselves have moved down. so when you say rates are too low, rates are too low relative to what? relative to what you think? >> relative to the fact they've been tinkered with at. how do you know where they would be? >> agreed. agreed. agreed. >> then what are we talking about? somebody mentioned this is good for capitalism! please any country that's a capitalist raise their hand. gee, don't see any. >> hang on a second. rick, remember we have had this discussion before and we have -- listen. listen. i'm with you. i get it. guys, we have the long end of the curve to look at. far less if you will manipulated if you will. it's a big market of u.s. treasuries. >> that's right, kelly. >> you can't argue that on the one hand the moves mat

so you have to see what the fed does and how it reacts. >> the last couple of fed meetings there was a lot of talk about the global environment and whether that was going to effect the domestic situation. will the fed be more focused this meeting particularly if we look at the u.s. earnings we had out the last couple of weeks? >> it has to have an impact. it's a relatively closed economy. only 13% of gdp comes from exports compared to many european countries where it's 30, 50 and other end is 80%. so the focus is much more on domestic u.s. rather than the rest of the world but the fed has to bear in mind the consequences of its actions. i'm not sure the fed is keen to have another 20% rise in the u.s. dollar. >> does that rise in the u.s. dollar slightly welcomed by the fed in that it allows them to actually put off the scary prospect of raising rates? it's like tightening a little bit and therefore this step by step approach is given to it as it were? >> no that's true. it's one more thing they have to throw into the mix and one more part of the smoke screen they have to try to look

the fed will do it when it's time to do it. the fed will do it as soon as they the they can and not have an adverse effec looks more like 2016. the fed will also support the economy if it needs helping. don't forget it can go both ways. the ecb, jcb, they're still moving in that direction. expect the money to be flowing and flowing towards the economy through th capital markets. >> john let's talk about stocks and what the earnings are telling us about them as dom chu said in his report of the s&p 500 companies that have issued forward guidance most of them have not measured up to what wall street was looking for in terms of that guidance. that's not a good sign is it? >> no but it's not the worst sign in the world either. this has been going on really since november. we've started to see the expectations decline a little bit. i think it may go on for a while, but i think it's more of a reset down than it is a change in direction. i still think corporations can still use technology to improve earnings. and i think the economy c

we have breaking news to get to from the fed. >> the release of the details of the last fed meeting. let's get to steve liesman. what exactly are we looking at here with the fed minutes? >> the fed minutes for the december meeting that we are waiting for. what we can say is that the fed is saying that it could begin rate hikes at the current level of core inflation. this is new information that 1.4 peace cor 1.4%. they first would need confidence that inflation is going to move back to the 2% target level but they are waiting to do it now at the current level. just hold on before you think the fed is hiking rates. many see global weakness as the key u.s. risk out there. there is also contingent that see upside risk to the economy from better job growth, better gdp numbers and effects of low oil prices. however those are seen as temporary. let me go through details about what the fed is saying about the story. in general they are seen as positive for the economy. it will be a boost to consumer spending but there is concern that lower oil prices could reduce inflation expectations and

. >> the fed maintains its interest rate guidance. the fed maintains its interest rate guidance. repeating it will be patient in rating rates but upgrades its assessment of economic activity from moderate to solid for the first time in recent years. let's go right to the economic analysis. quote, information received since the federal open market committee met in december suggests that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. labor market conditions have improved further with strong job gains and lower unemployment rate. on balance a range of labor market indicators suggest underutilization of labor resources continues to diminish. household spending is rising moderately. recent declines in energy prices have boosted household purchasing lower. business fixed investment is advancing while the recovery in the housing sector remains slow. inflation declined further than committees's longer run objective largely reflecting declines in, compensation and measures of inflation compensation declined. inflation long term expectations have remained stable. skipping redundant

the fed, i think everybody grease the fed distorted rates. the rates should not be at zeros, shouldn't have been at zero for a long time, and yet they're at emergency level for a reason, because the fed sees problems with the economy. you don't? >> i think the u.s. economy is going to grow. i think it's going to grow, it's going to be stable. i don't think it's a boom economy, but you got to -- david: hold on a second, then the fed should not be having emergency levels of interest rates, right? this is a level, this zero interest rate is historically significant, and it is creating bubbles all around the world, because it's not just the fed doing it, all central banks. if the economy is okay, could be doing better, should we be having the emergency interest levels? >> we're assuming that janet yellen is getting it right. we assume that alan greenspan got it right. he got it wrong. there's a lot of things i don't know how the fed's going to react. here's what i do know. what do i know is the world economy is adding 40 million new consumers. fa

we'll have fed reaction from chicago fed president charlie evans. stick around. thing in business? some say buy gold. others say buy soybeans. i say, buy comcast business internet. unlike internet providers that slow down when traffic picks up, you get speed you can rely on. it's a safe bet. like a gold-plated soybean. reliably fast internet starts at $69.95 a month. comcast business. built for business. >>> we're now just minutes away from getting the widely watched december jobs numbers which means it's time to play predict the payrolls with our panel. everyone's got their prediction sticks ready to go. you don't have one on you. but we are. we're going to start to alan and ask you for your prediction, please. alan? >> i hate making predictions about the monthly numbers but since you require me to my best guest is around 225,000 jobs which is a solid report. i think the unemployment rate will continue to edge down. it looks to me like it's continuing to heal. i don't think we'll see numbers like last month of over 300,000. i think we're due for lower numbers ju

you said it is more likely that the fed will win the world series than the fed raise rates. didn't today's action with the fed perhaps there will be a rate hike this year? >> they're delusional, all right? how in the world do they raise rates? we still have huge employment slack, no wage growth. we have rallying dollar. we have borderline deflation and costs. the 10-year note trading at 1.7-year-old, all right? explain to me how in the world the fed thinks they will raise short-term rates 25 basis points? liz: they didn't say they were going to, mark. >> yeah. you will see a cleveland browns super bowl before you see fed rates. liz: hey, i resemble that remark. >> that's what i'm telling you. liz: he is mean. let me go back to anthony because we interrupted you. what is your thought on the fed as we look forward to potential june tightening? >> i think june is too early. i think the fed will have to explain, yellen will have to explain in february at the semiannual congressional testimony about the timing of a first rate hike and when that will occur. i think they left the d

the quick question is, what about the fed? what does all of this mean for the fed?ious to watch and see it unfold. >> we are all waiting for 6.5 percent unemployment. we now have 5.6 unemployment and the fed is holding steady. >> i suspect the fed would like to hike rates get off zero, and and this extraordinary period of monetary policy. without any inflation pressure showing up anywhere and with deflationary pressure coming from energy, i think they might just say -- >> a person really enjoying this is president obama. he will be victory lap in detroit. there have been 58 consecutive months of job growth. regardless of what the fed wants to do, toby 14 was the best month for -- your for job creation and the country since 1999. >> oil prices have done the job of erasing -- >> of fiscal policy? [laughter] >> of erasing inflationary pressure on that front. the strong dollar has done the same thing. it might be the janet yellen needs to stay on autopilot. there is not a whole lot that needs to be done. >> the story of the economy is that there is no story. solid gains

melissa: you won't shave until the fed raises rates. >> i won't shave until the fed raises rates. >> you have a long beard. >> i won't shave until george, our camera guy, shaves his fro. melissa: that making more sense. look no further than microsoft leading sector to biggest plunge in three years. tale of two tech companies for microsoft and apple. microsoft reporting dispointing fourth quarter earnings. apple is gearing up for what analysts say could be epic report after the bell. is it going to be epic jack? >> it will be epic in terms of numbers. the stock is going to decline and the reason i say that that is what happened this time a year ago and this time two years ago. something happens twice, i look for it to happen a third time. >> we know it will be epic in terms what they have sold people will look for projection. >> i don't think they come up with something bigger than screen increase on iphone 6. this was the mother of all upgrade cycles. i think having a hard time -- >> about as epic as that blizzard you will talk about. melissa: yeah, i don't know. i think it will be m

the fed signaling its on track to raise interest rates this year.ne bond manager nervous about that. ♪ >> a little under 16 minutes away from the opening bell. scarlet fu is looking at the big premarket movers. >> plenty to choose from. let's start with carmakers and speeding ahead. ford set to a race yesterday's decline. europe losses will improve from 2014. we want to mention fiat, one of the best performing auto stocks in europe. royal caribbean a disappointment here, dropping more than 5.5%. qualcomm cutting its 2015 outlook because of lost orders from samsung and increased competition from china. coach, the handbag company turned lifestyle purveyor of the more than 5.5%. profit in december topped analyst estimates. julie hyman will be on to speak about coaches efforts. >> i don't see any coach purses around anymore. >> i had a coach backpack. >> a hot thing 10 years ago. >> may be a bit longer, but let's not go there. >> i want to get back to one of today's top stories. the group confirms a solid turnaround and strong's creation, avoiding any t

david: todd, i'm wondering if the fed lost control? >> i think the fed has definitely lost control. i made it my new year's resolution to talk about them but they have definitely lost control. i think they're basically clueless when it comes to monitoring and how to get out of what they created. what they did, if they had to do it, great, we saved banks in 2008. but today the market, if you go by the stock market, we're up 230% from the bottom. meantime yields are still down, going to zero. now you hear about around the globe, everybody is pushing down. small countries are caving in because of the cost of oil but yet the fed tells us we have a better economy, we're worried about inflation. we can't even put money in the bank to get back money to keep up with inflation. so whatever money you would make more of today, is not making back to what you were making 10 years ago. i see no improvement. so i can see why they're trying to keep them low. meantime, middle class remains in recession. equities continue to go higher because forever chase for yield continues. david: fed may want to

first the fed releases baitest -- latest bash book report. peter barnes with details. >> melissa, reports from the 12 federal reserve districts suggest that national economy activity continued to expand from with most districts reporting a moderate or modest pace of growth. these let summary that the fed uses at the next policy meeting next month. falling oil and gasoline prices are a major them. for example, the report says quote, overall demand for energy related products and services weakened somewhat while the output of energy related products increased. of course jobs are also the focus at the fed and how fast the economy creates them will be key to when the fed starts to raise short-term interest rates expected sometime this year. on jobs the beige book says, quote, payrolls in variety of sectors expanded moderately during the reporting period. melissa? melissa: peter, thank you so much. let's bring in today's panel. charlie gasparino, fox business senior correspondent. pete hegseth ceo of concerned veterans of america. we have tony say

boston fed president eric rosengren and the minneapolis fed chief kocherlakota speak today.onstellation brands family dollar and bed, bath & beyond. >>> fed officials believe global weakness poses some of the biggest downside risk especially if the royals the financial markets, according to the latest fomc minutes which we got yesterday. the central bank expects the big drop in oil is likely to boost growth investors welcoming the view as strong flight expect payrolls lifted sentiment. that is one of the reasons you did see u.s. markets recover after lows of the trading day. the dow up around 212 points in yesterday's trade. >> indeed seema. let's get out and discuss this a little bit more with greg the u.s. economic editor at "the economist." good morning to you. thank you very much for joining pus. >> morning. >> on the whole, bullish or dovish? >> i would say they're bullish on the economy, hawkish on the markets. what struck me was notwithstanding their concerns about the global economy, which we all know about, japan, europe and the risk of deflation, they're so bullish

the fed is still -- i agree with john the fed still figures they're going to raise rates this year andhe stock market has not acted very well when the fed is pulled back on the easy policy over the last few years. it's not all right so far. >> final thoughts john silvia -- i don't know if you juan to talk stock market? but talk about the economy -- this is not funny. is it going to be a 3.5 or 4% year? >> no absolutely not. a lot of people discounted real strong accelerating and economic growth in 2015. they're not going to get it. >> 25% so rate cut. what is it 5%? we have another round of qe? what's the chances that happened. >> it's zero. >> i don't think anything in the world is zero. bullard didn't say zero. >> yeah well okay. he is from the fed. >> exactly. that is funny. now i'm laughing. all right. thanks john silvia. >> i wondered where that was. >> i didn't see it earlier. lou. i feel it now. >> when we come back alibaba under pressure in china today and it's all about fakes. we'll tell you about that story when squawk box returns in just a moment. so, how do you feel about c

now let's move on to the fed. a -- the fed's two-day meeting kicks off today.omorrow we talk about the fed. morgan stanley came out and said that they are pushing back their fed rate hike expectation to march of 2016. in your all america survey, what are your economists saying about a fed rate hike? still liable to happen this year? >> this group pushed it ahead from july on average to september on average. this group is 33 respondented who came around this time in the philadelphia survey. they -- the majority are still saying july, but because more people moved it out and, in fact, we had two people that are equal to that morgan stanley that were longer than the morgan stanley beyond. the big story on the table right now is a fed interest rate hike on this year or are they off? >> we have competentists making this morgan stanley call on "closing bell." >> she will be here, and she can defend that call. i think that is the latest of any of the major wall street houses. >> absolutely. that is true. >> yes. >> and there's an e-mail chain. >> you called it the out

if we were to get a correction of around 11%, the fed -- it is off the table as far as fed rate hikesiven by financial markets. should the show volatility? should they show any kind of correction? the fed will reverse themselves. the history of the last five years is pretty square. monetary policy is nothing but an emotional reaction to the markets. >> i hear your case on stocks being flat this year based on dismal earnings growth. remember that in this global stage, you have an ecb likely to start easing even more who knows what that is going to do sue -- to asset prices. in japan you have a deflationary spiral. china is on shaky footing. what about the safety plan for the u.s.? isn't that going to hold? >> you will get some of that. as that you made a very compelling case for why stocks will struggle. japan is in recession. qe is coming to europe. china is struggling as well. i know economists have gone from 45% of s&p earnings coming from overseas to only 13% of exports are gdp. the fact of the matter is that 45% of revenues from the s&p 500 companies come from the rest of the worl

the fed. >> it is the first do no harm type of fed meeting. the could just make slight upgrades to the economic assessment and walk away and that would be a successful meeting. we are growing at a 5% annualized rate over the last two quarters. >> let's look at the debate. simon kennedy's quote. the basic idea is that morgan stanley says, we are going to delay. the lowflation expectation presents a persistent downside risk to the u.s. outlook. she is front and center, isn't she? >> absolutely. the fed is trying to be patient. financial conditions are already tightening given the strong appreciation of the dollar. the stronger dollar is going to weigh on the export sector and different profits. it is already starting to create down drafts and slow the economy down. >> i have been chewing on the word patient. it is the fed's way of saying, we're still figuring it out. >> they are still looking at the data. i think what the fed might be missing -- and this is going to be the critical thing to watch -- the minutes of the december meeting indicate t

"the closing bell" has the economists from morgan stanley with their fed call. fed day tomorrow. "the closing bell" starting right now. i will see you in about 23 hours. >>> well happy tuesday everybody. welcome to "the closing bell." the market finally trading on earnings but guess what? it's not liking those earnings. it's a market sell-off at the new york stock exchange. welcome to "the closing bell." i'm kelly evans. >> i'm bill griffeth. and then there's snowmageddon. billions spent on a storm that was largely a bust for those in manhattan part of new york city and parts west. those of you in long island and connecticut and eastern massachusetts and rhode island you got hit as was predicted but those of us in parts west preparing for all of that was a huge displacement and there's a thought that maybe billions will have been lost as a result of all of that. the biggest blizzard though turned out to be inside the new york stock exchange today. >> well put. take a look at what's happening in the market. we are geared up for a negative start then got a flurry of earnings. cater

>> well the fed thinks they're going to tighten and every time the fed begins a tightening cycle, there's a panicky selloff in stocks. we had a commodity bubble. i'm on this program for years saying that wall street racked trillions of dollars of commodityies in the package of mortgages and the commodity bubble burst and if people realize that and it really is over, then there's a chance the fed may not tighten and that may cause a selloff but the important thing to note is that our pensions need to make 7.5% and they're continuing the vote to put more money in credit and that trend will accelerate as the year goes on so once these panics run their course the stocks go right back up. >> okay. >> yeah. but we thought the credit bubble was going to end and david tepper saying the credit bubble in september was over that the run that we have seen in credit was over. jennifer, i'm wondering given that this is your wheelhouse where the 10-year and 30-year are right now, i don't think people would have predicted starting 2015 at these ultra low levels yet again so where do you want to be on the

what will the fed finally get down. treat 1% on fed. yeah -- >> which is now what? sfwler to a water. >> zero to a quarter. >> 12 basis points. >> that's a fairly steep rise. it's a long way off. >> walk with me. >> okay. >> march 2015. let's go back this way. all the way to the first quarter of 2018. it's a long -- >> anonymous phone managers strategists, analysts. exclusive. think about half of them. >> steve, thank you. sue. >> overseas now, guys. he was the most unpopular man in greece. not anymore. voters there are making him a rather unlikely hero. our chief international correspondent michelle carusa-cabrera is in athens with him. over to you. >> hey thank you. yes, the former chief tax collector of greece, harry theo harris joins us live. we had you on friday. i thought you would never get elected to parliament. i thought you were crazy, but you did. what is the former chief tax collector do now as a member of parliament? what's your first order of business? >> the first order of business is to split the different areas, the parliamentary areas of policy amo

number two is the fed. fed has not been on the brakes at all, it's been the opposite. put the scenario around. we have a terrorist attack in october at a world series game and the fed is starting tightening. you are not going to see the dow 18,000, you are going to see dow 8,000. >> they have indicated -- >> i think absolutely because it has a chilling effect on economies around the world. for now, it looks relatively isolated. the market is so fix sated on the fed. what we saw friday is reaction to the jobs reports. the surface looked good but wages fell. hourly wages fell. that's incredible. we are seeing more and more bad part time jobs and people aren't making money. it's not keeping up with inflation. that was the story friday. >> i'm going to disagree with melissa on this. i don't think they ignored this. the market was down 170 points. it was initially down 200, came back and then fell off the cliff. one interesting thing, i believe, is when you have bad news economic news like wages not growing. the

fed stocks and steel. dominic chu and morgan brennan covering both. >> we are about 45 minutes away from 2:00 p.m. eastern time when the fed releases minutes. what types of stocks do well on those days? >>> we have big layoffs again in the steel industry. what is this going to mean for the stocks? we will have more on that when "power lunch" returns in two minutes. >>> j.c. penney shares are soaring after the retailer reported nearly 4% rise over the holiday season and revised sales projections for the current quarter to the upper end of prior estimates. it is up almost 21%. american express upgraded to buy from neutral due to multiple benefits of improved outlook. eli lilly's 2015 guidance below current forecasts although the pharmaceutical company believes the challenging period of patent explorations is winding down for it. >> we have seen orare starting to see big layoffs in the steel sector. what does this all mean for the future of the steel business and future of the stocks? >> i have been looking i

no other questions about the portfolio of the fed. >> can you have an audit of the fed that does not pass the metal of -- >> it depends on how you define"mettle." what we're talking about our substantive things. >> what about fannie mae and freddie mac? you were big critics about them before the financial crisis. what about the plan to unwind them? >> we will address that and see how far we can go. we need bipartisan support in the senate to do that, but i do not want to bill just for the sake of a bill. i am not interested in any bill with an explicit guarantee. i would like to get fannie and freddie up and running on their own without the government help. is that possible? we don't know. >> it's a big bipartisan left. >> -- big bipartisan lift. . >> that is what we are here for. >> let me ask you about dodd frank. you were an opponent. where would you like to move.-frank? >> i think the consumer agency created by dodd-frank ought to be under a consumer agency. also, i would like to move the support to something like the ftse, federal reserve, and others where you do not just have o

he has the fed minutes. peter? >> hey melissa, the fed is looking for flexibility in raising interest rates gradually according to the minutes from the last fed meeting in december which it said it could be patient raising interest rates. let's go right to the text. most participants noted such language would provide more flexibility to adjust policy and response to incoming information than the previous language which had been tied to the beginning of normalization to the end of the asset purchase program the end of qe. and, but it is also says, in the minutes that the fed may do this before the fed gets back to its 2% inflation target. quote, with lower energy prices and stronger dollar, likely to keep inflation below target for some time, noted that the committee might begin normalization at a time when core inflation was near current levels although in that circumstance participants would want to be reasonably confident inflation would move back toward the 2% target over time. right now that core inflation targ

fed statement from yesterday. focus on the domestic economy being strong it was accompanied with risk off sentiment yesterday. seeing bond buying pushing the tenure to 1.74%. germany around .34% and that's similar to where it's been since the ecb meeting. no further yield compression over the last couple of days. let's have a look in at greece because bonds have been moving in the opposite direction. look at the ten year which moved as much as 1% from trough to peek yesterday. now at 10.9% but in particular let's focus on the shorter end of the curve. the five year 14.3% is up. about 2% today and the three year at 18% is up close to 4% today. so the short end of the curve going sharply higher. of course fears of default on the short end because of the new government. so 18% on the three year. incredibly high yields there. let's look what did the u.s. dollar do yesterday? it didn't do that much. much more muted than the bond market move and equity market move and as we look at currencies today it's more of the same

get your move in before the fed.an ringgit, this is a currency which has dropped to the lowest level since 2009. oil dropping by more than 2%. that is important to the malaysian economy. they kept rates unchanged. but this is a currency which could trade lower, according to ing. they are saying you could see a level -- seller traveling up, ringgit traveling down. some pressure in the asian and australasian currencies. let's take you to the new zealand the dollar. -- the new zealand dollar. you have a bank remaining on a tightening bias since 2013. he says there is a shift to neutral. a hint that they could counter rates. the sins something -- canada did this. singapore. nine central bank so far. you could see a change from them. anna, back to you. >> the top bloomberg headlines. the chair of the board says greek banks are capable of surviving. she says the banks have done a lot of work to strengthen their balance sheets but faced difficulty. >> the greek banks are facing difficulty right now because of the recent ele

it is fed day.conomists are not expecting janet yellen to drop more hints about the first rate hike in eight years but they do still think it is coming as soon as june. for a look at how the markets could react, i want to bring in jena martin-adams, and equity strategist and our own strategist, carl. what are you expecting today carl? >> subtle tweaks to the statement acknowledging growth and the ongoing mending of the labor market. the thing to watch for is inflation commentary. said members are concerned about low inflation, core inflation decelerating the last 12 months. we are down over the last three months. likely to continue through midyear. the real surprise today would be a state-owned down the inflation rhetoric, hinting of deep concern. if they do that, the market would push expectations beyond midyear. i do not think the fed is ready to do that, but watch for expectations. >> gina, what do you think? >> economist might be hanging on to june, so you have a conflict. the divergence needs t

. >>> the fed's dilemma. consumers pay less for a lot of things and that makes the central bank's decision on when to hike interest rates a lot more complicated. steve liesman reports. >>> aftershock. the surprise surge in the swiss frank is still reverberating around the world and today it brought one brokerage firm to its knees. >>> and taking control. our market monitor guest says this is not the year for passive investing and he has a list of stocks he says are worth owning. all that and more tonight on "nightly business report" for friday january 16th. >>> good evening, everyone and welcome. it is friday and for many of us the start of a three-day weekend. after a weekend of whip saw moves in the market and a disappointing start to the new earnings season this weekend couldn't arrive soon enough. but today was different. stocks snapped a five day losing streak. by the close, the dow was up 190 points. the nasdaq shot up 63 and the s&p added 26 closing back above the 2,000 mark. today's gains however were

next up however, digging into the fed reaction.ve liesman tells us what spooked the markets yesterday and two top investors will tell us why you shouldn't get nervous. "halftime" back after this. >>> the competition for trader of the year, continues. six halftime traders, one epic battle, who will reign supreme in the ultimate portfolio challenge. keep up with every move on "the halftime report" and go to cnbc pro for real-time trading alerts, exclusive insight and analysis behind the trades. sign up now at cnbc.com/pro for your limited time free preview. the portfolio challenge on "the halftime report." noon eastern, week days, on cnbc. jack's heart attack didn't come with a warning. today, his doctor has him on a bayer aspirin regimen to help reduce the risk of another one. if you've had a heart attack, be sure to talk to your doctor before your begin an aspirin regimen. jack's heart attack didn't come with a warning. today, his doctor has him on a bayer aspirin regimen to help reduce the risk of another one. if you've had a hear

the fed is holding out for that. silver lining in all of this -- and we should take our in this -- is that gas prices have been declining so much -- in 28 states, below two dollars a gallon. that has a big psychological effect on people. when you look at the consumer confidence numbers, they were fantastic. the best since august 2007. let's not forget the consumer is the key to this economy, representing 20's -- 70% of gdp. maybe just maybe, this is the demand that the economy needed. maybe we will see a revved the consumer because of these prices. >> what about investor confidence? they see a day like this on wall street, what do they think? >> we are off the lows of the session. we were down about 350 and i thought we might see people come in and buy. the u.s. is effectively the only game in town. especially what is happening in europe and asia. you have a federal reserve that will likely continue printing money, continuing with this low interest-rate environment for the foreseeable future. with the fed's help, wit

should force the fed to move slowly.nflation means we may be able to be more patient than we have in the past as long as we're experiencing very low inflation there's no reason for the path to be particularly abrupt. >> jeff dunlock has a different take of where the markets are headed this year while he expects the fed to start raising rate this is year, he believes that costs long-term yields to fall. the ten-year treasury yield could take out a low of 1.38% hit in hit. still with us is david scranton ceo of advisers academy. david, we'll talk about the bond market because it surprised everyone by going up last year. the yields coming down when rates do start going up what will be the reaction? >> well, first of all i don't think it's going to happen for a long time. i actually believe that the federal reserve has a good chance they will not raise short-term rates or federal fund rates because they do not want to flatten the yield curve. i agree that we could have more downward pressure over the next year or so at least

we had interesting words from the cleveland fed president. did that put a damper on things. >> i don't think it had much of an effect when you look at statements like that. you see how quiet the futures market is really over. you had half the average daily volume in s&p cash we normally see. i don't put a whole lot of stock in these last three down days depending where we end up. all the market participants are not in here. the news is being digested but not necessarily traded. david: gotcha. cheryl: tom, you say that stocks are getting expensive. i had a guest in the last hour saying same thing it doesn't add up. the market has once again gotten ahead of u.s. economy and we'll is some issues coming up in the next couple months. >> well everyone has been comfortable. that is the great idea. people feel really good about their portfolios for the past five years. i think the big challenge will be, as you go into 2015, make yourself uncomfortable. look to some of those unlove of the areas like small cap stocks or, as other guests mentioned, over

why would it simultaneously believe the fed and doesn't believe the fed is gonna move. >> what is 1%?na restrain the economy? absolutely not. >> there is there such concern on the longer end of the curve? >> the long end is a compilation of aggressive increases across the yield curve and short-term interest rates, largely being angered by a fed that says it is going to move very slowly if at all in normalizing interest rates. if anything, the fed is going to disappoint us the expectations insofar as to how much it adjusts rates upward this year. >> what about macroprudential tools? i'm guessing you're not a fan? the idea if people aren't fam kbrar, using the blunt tool some call it of interest rates, generally look at an area like the housing market biotech stocks, like certain parts of the load market specifically target them either through those adjectives or policies and help to normalize and keep the -- >> this is the new buzz word that came out of the crisis, largely because the fed circled the wagons around monetary policy and said we have nothing to do with the crisis. what we