new economic data showing data rose sharply following the brexit vote. >>> and don't miss the interviewt 1:00 eastern with jamie dimon. you're watching cnbc. first in business worldwide. >>> good morning. breaking overnight. uber set to merge china business with rival didi in a $35 billion deal. the details from beijing straight ahead. >> markets now. the dow in a six-month winning streak. its best run in more than three years. >>> at the box office, jason bourne takes the big screen by storm. it's monday, august 1st, 2016. you're watching worldwide exchange on cnbc. good morning. welcome back to worldwide exchange on cnbc. i'm sara eisen along with mike san stole i sitting in for wilfred frost. >>> great to be here. >> starting august in the green. fractionally here. u.s. equities futures, s&p futures up 3.5 and nasdaq futureses up 8. this is the best -- the nasdaq outperforming the other two. the s&p and dow closer to record highs. the treasury starting out the month with selling. better sentiment across the world. we're hovering at 147 on the ten-year yield. that is lower than where

as for the rest of economic data. china overnight. increasing at the weakest pace in six months. 1.8%. wholesale prices, producer prices dropped 1.7%. japan's nikkei also continued its rally. hong kong off fractionally. >> broader market s as we cede yesterday. back above $43. 42.99 on wti this morning. pretty much flat compared to nice gains yesterday. look at the dollar and pound, main focus dropped below 1.30. not too much action happening elsewhere. gold prices slipped sharply last week off the barrack of the job number. settled a little more. >> when it comes to the markets rights now, a low volume day. it's important to note we still are at record highs for the u.s. stock market. new high yesterday and closed at a record high on friday as long as stocks can hold the gains in the summer drums, i was watching fast money last nights and one of the traders said flat is the new down. we'll see about that. one factor that was certainly helping was energy. a 3% hike in crude oil. >> i just also the compare the difference of what we're

consumer prices rose more than expected, up .6% which is the .hird piece of economic data since brexit economists were expecting .5%. the piece of data that shows the follow-through from the slump in sterling we have seen since brexit is the increase in input prices, tpp input prices up-percent, ending 32 months of consecutive declines. we seeing a feedthrough on input prices. these are the prices that manufacturers are being for materials and energy. they signs of the impact falling pound is having post-brexit on inflation particularly on producer price inflation. let's go to first word news. : hillary. new programs clinton a lead of 52% among voters. shrinks when third-party candidates are included and the donald trump negative image is helping hillary clinton overcome her own liability. turkey is taking another step toward reconciling with israel. israel has authorized a $20 million payment to compensate the families of the 10 victims and the restoration of ties is expected to unlock energy contracts worth billions of dollars. russia says its warplanes for the first time are using a

joe: you mentioned we got different economic data.ooking at a five year chart of the spread, really flagging. we are seeing a lot of flattening. that maybe we us will get one this year, maybe another one later on, but no one out there thinks there will be anything sustained? let's the shorter answer is yes, but there's something else going on. reason why the long end of the curve is not responding despite the better economic data is on a relative basis, u.s. yields are flat. relative to negative yields, that's keeping foreign buying up and keeping downward pressure on the long end of the curve. matt: also, we are not that flat. this is an old chart i pulled up the goes back to the 80's with the red line being zero. but were getting there are still at crisis levels here. to the question about the fed, is it possible that the market doesn't give the fed enough credibility anymore to act on what the fed? says? even though we get a little bit of reaction, we don't get a lot the market saying doesn't believe what it fears from the fed. bee

getting back to the breaking economic data, purchases of u.s. homes jumped to the highest level in almost nine years. i want to bring in one of our .op economic forecasters ryan, we mention these figures. 580,000ey was for houses. we got 654,000, expect in a decline in new home sales but instead of 12.4%. what is your reaction to all of this? >> i think it is very encouraging news on the housing front. it's important to keep in mind new home sales are very volatile from month to month, so they are fairly unreliable. we do not want to get too high or low on one month of data. but the trend is strong. sales are up more than double digits on a year ago basis. it is further evidence that the housing market continues to strengthen. that: further evidence things are continuing at pace, or were there something to peng shuai the spike that we saw? >> nothing that we can pinpoint that we can suggest that would support such a large increase in new home sales month to month. i would chalk it up to a lot of volatility in a new home sales numbers. typically t

>> yeah, we think the economic data's going to be positive. we have record high networth. low debt-service ratios and wages are starting to increase for the lower level of skilled workers. which bodes well for the economy and we think can withstand the increases that could occur in december. we're certainly calling for a rate hike out of december. and the fed will start to layer -- >> is the market underpricing the probability of this happening? >> it's interesting when you look at economists. they think there's a 75% chance of a rate hike and the market's saying a 50/50 chance. i i'd say i fall in line with the economists in the 75%. >> where would you be in terms of the overall equities picture? >> we favor international opportunities. the fed is probably the third or fourth most important central bank. bank of japan and england are continue to stimulate the economies and you have places like japan and europe really, really undervalued right now. so, within the ecwe wuty space, we're favoring the consumer driven tuptdriv en opportunities. >> what is it going to take to g

we are seeing the 10-year fall below 15% on this morning's disappointing economic data. seen some selling today also. the nasdaq little changed. the dow is off by 47 points as we head into the last hour of trading on this august friday with volume down 18% from the 20 day average for the s&p 500. this is bloomberg. ♪ shery: it is 3 p.m. in new york and 8 p.m. in london. julie: welcome to bloomberg markets. ♪ we're live from bloomberg world headquarters in new york. covering stories in los angeles, chicago, and japan. u.s. stocks retreat from their record highs. are they coming back to earth or just taking a breather? shery: a deluge of u.s. data out today. retail sales and ppi both seeing their biggest miss. julie: oil posts it's biggest weekly advance in saudi arabia signaled it is good to discuss stabilizing markets when opec meets next month. we get some perspective. hour from the close of trade in the u.s. let's check on markets. we see some red across the screen. it is the

these numbers are slightly better than had been estimated as we look at this verse is some of the economic data we have this morning including initial jobless claims coming out any much in line with estimates. the biggest thing on the economic front, the bank of england coming out with its interest rate cut as well as increased stimulus here. factory orders, durable goods orders coming out a little better than had been estimated but it does not seem to be changing the direction of stocks to any significant degree at the moment. still seeing very little change as investors weigh what the bv has done with the bank of japan and try to extrapolate what the fed in the u.s. will do. playing into what we are seeing today asked stocks fluctuate above and below the zero line i half hour after the beginning of trading. i what to look at what is going on in the bond market following the bank of england action and following the economic data. as we saw in the u.k. we see yields moving lower. 1.49% in the united states and taking a leg of further down after we got this economic data although it does appear

. >> i tweeted a picture of the uk economic data before the brexit vote and the uk economic data after the brexit vote. people are angry on both sides. >> they're concerned. >> deal with it or people who voted to remain and the people who voted to leave, but i'm curious as to why we saw this -- it was a big move yesterday by the bank of england. why do it yesterday in why do it now as opposed to waiting a bit for the actual affect to take hold? >> i think again we sort of seeing a lot is psychological. it's really your outlook and how you're sort of moving your assets and investing and how you're forward looking. if you're positive about the situation then the brexit situation should not be an enormous hurdle. you keep investment on the sideline. you should be going forward. the pullback in economic data could well be a view of that. >> survey data too. so the bottom line is if you try to stop the data, the real data may not be that bad. >> that's a good point. >> we've got to go, peter. head of market strategy at swiss bank. >>> almost 16% rise in first half rev nuf sales. 1897 millio

in asia economic data was in focus. fixed investment data all coming in sort of forecast. is seemed to brush that aside as you can see shanghai closing up 1.6%. japan trading after being closed for mountain day yesterday up 1.4% and is up 4% for the week. strong performance in both europe and asia. >> on the back of the weaker japanese yen and wall street. >>> this is all part of the big story. jump in oil prices. moved higher 4%. that was a decedent jump. energy sectors led the s&p. they're flat in morning, but as you can see up above $43 a barrel. brent just below $46 a barrel. 45.91. gnat gas continued to be under pressure. it didn't work in april, but it's giving the bulls some hope. that was the talk on the floor yesterday. as for the dollar, the dollar has been pretty much weaker overall for the week and for the past month or so. the euro a little bit stronger this morning at 1.11. the pound weaker and below that 1 pntd 30 level 1.29 it's a good sign for the japanese authorities at least and for global risk taking overall. quickly let's show you gold this morning whe

economic data that they're inching toward an interest rate hike. will it come in september, will it come in december. will it come this year at all? that's up for debate. i'm not sure the fed knows it itself. keep an eye on the yield. >> absolutely right. we saw it affect stock prices as well. it was a broad quarter percent selloff, but banks once again having strong performance. all up over 2%. they were the only outperformers yesterday. the rest of the soak terrectors down low volumes. let's have a look around the world. at the moment, a little bit mixed. germany is below flat despite its two biggest banks doing well. france is up 0.4% as are italy and explain doing a little better. asia, it's been a good week for the nikkei. we always see that negative correlation. it's up another 1% today. the shanghai comp. >> as for the broader market cross asset picture this morning. oil prices are selling off just a bit. wti down half a percent. 46.12. brent staying above $48 a barrel. just barely this morning. i mentioned the dollar which has been rising.

still ahead, economic data remains mixed.expectations this is bloomberg. ♪ scarlet: this is "bloomberg markets." i'm scarlet fu. erik: i'm erik schatzker. scarlet: investors began 2015 expecting the fence to raise rates 4 times this year. but now the question whether they will see 1 at all. let's join pimm fox and cory johnson on bloomberg radio for more. that may cause people to look outside the united states. i want to welcome our bloomberg television viewers. this is the bloomberg invented straight joining us is heidi richardson, head of investment strategy at ishares to tell us more about markets and money. tell us about the relationship between u.s. interest rates and investments in emerging markets. >> this low interest rate environment we are in in the for and likely to be lower longer has been a great beneficiary for emerging markets. if we think about the dollar being so low for this year that we've seen an interest rates being so low, it's great for emerging markets that have debts that are tied to u.s. interest rat

the dollar fell after mixed economic data.reserve will be no rush to raise interest rates anytime soon. is leading theto rally as it is closer to a deal. will regulators clear the year for the biggest maker of seeds and pesticides? house is batting away donald trump's criticism the president stayed on vacation. will the visit now quiet that controversy? scarlet:

so much economic data comes out of canada. we will be looking at canada's economy next.s is bloomberg. ♪ scarlet:m bloomberg -- from bloomberg world headquarters, i'm scarlet fu. joe: i'm joe weisenthal. : the death toll from the terror attack and nieces now at 36. hundreds more were injured when -- droven man broke a a truck into a celebration. in the meantime, in the u.s., donald trump cap a week of with ac campaign changes bombshell, the resignation of paul manafort. manafort had also come under increasing media scrutiny support for the pro-russian former president of ukraine. hillary clinton is ratcheting up fundraising efforts. she has more than 60 events planned over the next five weeks across 16 states. she also has an event planned in the netherlands. donald trump's campaign is also planning more campaign raising events. it is suggested that pregnant women and their partner should suspend travel to miami-dade county. they found a second zone of local transmission in an area that includes the popular south beach. the state now has two areas considered active for p

we talked about chinese producer price deflation easing, but it is just one size of asian economic datarting to improve. i charted chinese producer prices. scarlet: that is not random. random.is not it is one of the data points out of asia-pacific this week. goingr looking charts, up, taiwanese exports, positive year-over-year for the first time in 17 months, all kinds of green shoots in an area where we have seen a decline. that is a good sign. this is the second of the most common charts you always see. joe: you see charts the go up. you see charts the go down, and now this charts are showing up again. matt: japanese investors and what kind of yield they get when you remove hedging costs. up bloombergiant news put this into a chart. i thought it was fascinating. what kind of yields do you get when you remove hedging costs? is verynese that negative. has now 10 year yield gone negative when you subtract cost of hedging. in light blue, france, but italy willing to go with a risk, can get a full point and change minus hedging costs. joe: investors will put all yields to zero everywhere.

economic data today, italian manufacturing confidence in august fell to the lowest level in one year.gling with staggering economy, earthquake to deal with as well. consumer confidence also hauling. a big week for european data. the highlight is your -- european price inflation. what are you looking at? an interesting story about leaving the workforce. i was looking at the vix. h are many different the vix. it was higher in now lower again. nothing to write home about. it is holding on to the strength we saw pre-weekend. there might be a little profit-taking following weakness. look at the 10 year yield. a real gain their. the 10 year yield not so much, 1.9 percent. points the front and has moved up. let's get a check of u.s. companies now. abigail doolittle has more now. abigail: something interesting going on for u.s. stock. the majors are all trading higher, a nice rally. of the 10sed rally sectors for the three indexes. all are trading higher except for health care at the nasa act. the reason behind this is the biotech sector down not just today but down more than 4% over the last

economic data, u.k.ured lending rose by one .2 billion pounds in july. -- 1.2 billion pounds in july. well below the 1.6 billion pound averaged over the last six months. spending splurge. running as an annual growth rate of more than 10%. also today, we had mortgage approval slumping to an 18 month low in july. banks a mutually owned lenders signing off on just over 60,000 loans. the fewest since january last year. mortgage demand has weekend since the tax hike on investment properties took effect in april. a piece of data that task out on the recent evidence that brexit isn't impacting u.k. economy as much as maybe many had dissipated. vonnie, what are you looking at? getting a are statement from apple. the cfo had been speaking earlier, but this actually was not for broadcast. now the company has put out an actual statement saying -- the commission's case is not about how much apple pays in taxes, it is about which government collects the money. it will have a profound and harmful effect on investment

jones industrial average to open up down flat this down about a point looking at now a lot of economic datars waiting on host of things later we've got friday government jobs' report this morning 10 a.m. consumer confidence and then data on housing as well as manufacturing. in europe we are seeing gains across the board, nonetheless, dax index in he germany up 1% a i asia mixed overnight west performer hong kong, hang seng up better than 12%, also ahead checking the time with style we've got a lurks watch in the studio valued at $700,000 what gives that it eye topping price tag check it out our top story of the morning that is apple getting slapped with a 14 a half-billion-dollar tax bill by european union antitrust regulators saying getting illegal tax breaks from ireland apple will appeal joining us over phone cato institute sr., fellow tax policy analyst dan mitchell thanks for weighing? on the phone: glad to be on. >> if ireland has taxi rate much lower than u.s. other countries out there is apple doing anything wrong operating there better tax race what is your takeaway. on the phone:

we have had economic data in japan and of course the nikkei is up a little bit.sidering it is 2.3% gained yesterday and the dollar-yen is fairly unchanged. that fall that cannot unexpected. in australia, good moves to start the session, up 0.4%. seeing gold prices coming up. new zealand holding onto 0.2% gain, coming up from where it was on the open on the back of the wall street close. looking at the kiwi-dollar, we have building approval, or building permits coming through today. 0.9%, down more than expected. we also had the reserve bank and the governor speaking today, there is no need for zero interest rates in new zealand, although they are preparing the markets for more cuts. the kiwi is up 0.1%. and speaking on the japanese yen, fairly unchanged. 101.92. market: japan's tightening unemployment for a third consecutive month. they are falling less than anticipated. the latest economic data out of japan. printing a positive story at least. or against. here is sherry. dark -- job's market tightened even more, unemployment falling to 3%, which would be the low

michael: janet yellen has a message for you, she hasn't put a timetable on it but she says economic data has improved. increase of aan federal funds rate has increased." it is the most optimistic and direct janet yellen has been on rates in quite some time. the labor market has improved and inflation, while still low, is still subject to the transitory effect of energy. yellen goes on to caution the outlook is uncertain and that policy is not on a preset course. the fed's ability to predict where rates will go is limited, because she says disturbances continues to buffer the economy. yellen adds the federal funds in the longer3% run. that is higher than most people would put it. much of the rest of the speeches on the fed policy actions and how they have -- actions and recovery. yellen goes on to say that at this point we need those tools going forward, although she says the fed is not at this moment studying the idea of targeting higher inflation or nominal gdp. she goes on to talk about the need for some fiscal policy going forward, but doesn't make a big deal of it. yellen says in the

we expect it to play out and the economic data to prove a backdrop of more stimulus in europe. ely be in december rather than in september. caroline: crucial unemployment data from the u.s. and europe. thank you very much, michael pond. great to have you on the show. alix: we want to get you caught up on were equities are trading. it is softening pretty much across the board. london is closed today, but you are seeing futures basically alatively flat and it wil little weakness at the dax. switch up the boards here and it is a stronger dollar. is 1.02.r-yen coming up, we will be speaking about what the fed's next move is and what it means for stocks and corporate profits. this is blumber bloomberg. ♪ . . caroline: this is "bloomberg " the u.k. shut for a back holiday. we are stocks down after we got sally fisher's comments about the fed interpretation. nearly every industry group is lower. the fear gauge is rising 5%. let's have a look at the fx market. we have the year off right .25%. the key underperformer is the south korean yuan. breaking news? alix: we are looking at per

at is the economic data that is the economic underpinning to that.oint about why do they work so hard because of the tight labor force them there is a very tight labor force. the jobless rate in japan is now at 21-year low. some are saying that because abenomics work so well, but because there are so many old people and people are getting older and older and they cannot work anymore. you don't have enough supply. shery: when you don't see wages actually increasing, it makes you think, doesn't it? how is this demographic affecting japan? betty: most clearly you can see that in the labor numbers. that is absolutely occurring. but it also means that wage growth is going to get tighter, and also, it will put more pressure on some of these policy onnie, youe, v are saying, opening up the employment system in the country to get more of a diverse workforce. it also means a demographic shift of more women in the workforce. shery: which was a key priority for abe. betty: exactly. for so long in japan, women were not a big part of the workforce. but if you don

an equity had a blackrock joins us any moment. >> it is a global economic data..avered. investment missed

i can meet the macro economic data from around the world.e us are the u.k., it is going in the right direction and we are getting a's desk getting a stronger second half of the year. therefore, that should drive equity valuations up, particularly as central banks by more bonds and increase the relative attractiveness of equities. it is the bonds that worry me. francine: lothar, thank you for that word of advice. he stays with us and we check in on the markets. the yield spread between the two year and third-year is at its narrowest since 2008. we bring you the mornings moves, equities are down. this is bloomberg. ♪ francine: these are your markets would equities under a little bit of pressure following a lot of pressure from asia. overall, i will point you to dollar weakness. it seems like it is a binary market, because today what investors are looking at our unequal global growth. the federal reserve will stay on hold so they are slow to raise interest rates. that is putting pressure on european stocks overall. they are flirting with positi

we start with economic data. julie: manufacturing get expanded july, but it was at a slower pace.his is an institute of supply management. 52.6.coming in at we should mention, the median forecast was 53. coming in a little below at had what had been estimated. employment contracted for the seventh month as part of this report. we get the overall jobs report friday. the major averages remain mixed in the wake of this report. snp pulling back slightly. nasdaq is trading higher. goldman sachs cut stock to an under weighted tactical trade, but nonetheless, adding to bearish sentiment this morning. if you look at the groups on the move within the s&p 500, energy shares of the worst performers, down 1.9%. we do have health care holding up well. those of the opposing poles at the morning -- poles at the moment. energy is falling because oil prices, which are pulling back for the seventh session in the past eight. getting close to $40 a barrel. down by 2% as we have seen this drop in oil. july was the work -- july was the worst month for oil. within the oil stocks, we are company to agree

>>> also watching economic data as well. e pair of economic reports on today's agenda are weekly jobless claims. july durable goods orders. both out at 8:30 eastern time. demand for durable goods are forecast to rise more than 3% in jewel following a drop of 4% in june. it's a volatile number. as for the earnings side of the equation. dollar general, dollar tree, and tiffany's, you can sense a consumer theme there. after the close today, we get game stop. also on the consumer theme as well. >>> tiffany's is going to be a an interesting one. weak performance for the stock so far this year. landon dowdy joins us with three things to watch. >> sparkle wihere are the three watch. first sales, watch the message sales in particular and any indication of spending in the u.s. faces continued pressure abroad, specifically in europe. in the wake of tourists attacks. take a look at the stock. shares down 9.5. underperforming the broader market second commodities. gross margins should benefit. probably to offset weak nts in sales. the th

economic data today. the housing market front and center with robert shiller joining us later in the program. but first, we have to get on to the markets. to thatthey reacting stanley fischer discussion? alix: we are seeing a lot of action in the treasury markets. the yield moves lower by about two basis points. yields are moving lower by two basis points, and we are seeing buy across the board. as the yield comes down, counterintuitive, considering stanley fischer says we are not just one and done. after we saw selloff across the curve yesterday. move on thepoint two-year. in terms of the other areas we are seeing reaction is the fx market. you are seeing the dollar hold its games. the bloomberg dollar index is now in a three-week high. it's not on the board, but the dollar/yen is one to watch. it's the biggest losing streak in about five months in terms of winners, south korean yuan is moving higher. -- across the board, you are seeing dollar strength. it's a positive risk on day except for japan. they

i just don't think it will be substantial because we will see better economic data, going into the end of the year. mark: your premise is based on a solid economy in the u.s. apply, if it logic does, to what is happening in europe, and countries like japan? you would have to say, their economies, especially post brexit, may not be on solid footing. iswhat brexit taught us shoot first, ask questions later is a bad investment philosophy. everyone who sold right after, it was a mistake. the reason, as we are now understanding it, people are realizing brexit will take quite a while to work itself through. stocks in europe got extremely cheap relative to interest rates and so forth. dividend yields got very high relative to bonds. i think you have had a .orrection back to the upside as reality has leaked in. strategies,obal when i think about where the safer play is right now, to me, it is the u.s.. i think we will see better growth here, and brexit will continue to weigh on the markets in europe. but i think the mistake was initially to assume it was an instant disaster, and that has not b

we are going to get hard economic data out of the u.k. leave the european union in june. surveys have shown a downturn, but they are all estimates. starting tomorrow we get data for inflation, retail sales, and jobs. joe weisenthal joins us now. before we get to you, here is the function matt and i were talking about. you will see on the bloomberg that you have different choices. i will click on u.k. here. italy, japan, germany. under u.k., this is the data we will get in the next couple days. retail sales, claimant count rate, jobless claims, unemployment rate, retail sales. it goes on. matt: public finance. joe: this is going to be a fun week to this is why we are all here, right? scarlet: this is why we are here because until now it has an sentiment-based. joe: just surveys asking managers in construction and manufacturing companies how things are going. that is inherently subjective. scarlet: it is squishy. joe: it is squishy data. historically this lines up well with the hard data. there will be interesting since the markets have reco

. >> interesting it's not moving as we pointed out on economic data. we'll get more revision to second quarter gdp this morning. everybody is wondering what third quarter gdp did. second quarter is 1% region. will we rebound to 3% growth in the third quarter. that's what the atlanta fed has us tracking at now. that would be positive. look for clues in that gdp report at 8:30 where we go from here. >> a lot of people pinning the u.s. picture in hopes for the second half of the year. we'll take a look at those pictures later on. let's check out european equities. maybe at least following a little bit of sentiment that's going on right now. we're talking about losses across most of the major markets in europe, but not massive losses. the dax in germany off 1 quarter of a percent. the ftse and the uk flat we're going to call it. very marginally. >> after better data continued. >> right. exactly. they got a look at their economic health with their gdp numbers. ftse mib in through down.5%. spain off. sit read. if you're watching you can see that. if you're l

economic data. retail sales is coming up, what you need to know about retail sales tomorrow.e ine presidential iowa is too close to call, according to the latest poll from suffolk university. 40% of iowa voters support hillary clinton. in a four-way race, trump leads clinton 37-36% with libertarian gary johnson at 6% and green party nominee jill stein at 3%. 70% of voters are undecided. the fbi has high confidence the russian government hacked u.s. democratic party groups according to a person familiar with the findings. the u.s. investigation into the hacks has expanded a stone evidence that other groups were targeted in addition to the democratic national committee and the democratic congressional campaign committee. there's been no comment from the fbi. moscow has repeatedly denied involvement. the atlantic basin in the united states will have the most named storms since 2012 with 5 to 8 strengthening into hurricanes. the national oceanic and atmospheric administration says 2 to 4 storms could be major hurricanes with winds of 111 miles per hour. year, five storms have for

the take away is, the economic data hasn't been all that great. ales on friday, japan gdp, lending data out of china. yet, the path of least resistance for the market is higher whether that's on the view that the data is good enough. that means we're not in recession. but not good enough for central banks to take the brakes off the gas. that's where we find ourselves. with the backdrop of higher oil prices. >> there's no alternative to stocks. look at what's happening with bonds. >> the only thing i would say, that's true in dry markets. the gains overall, despite some of the records, very very much muted. we saw a quarter percent gain over the weeks. the nasdaq, the others would bang on flat. europe and asia very strong. we're making records but the relative performance last week was coming overseas. equities, bond yield are so unbelievably low. as long as they think easing is going to continue in the world and won't see a complete economic collapse -- >> low volumes, small moves. to your point. there's less than a 50% chance that the fed raises i

can they pull out positive surprises on a light week for economic data. >> holding the highs with oilng pretty soft as well. another encouraging factor. >> some stocks to watch today, chesapeake energy agreeing to sell interest in the barnette area. chesapeake will cut daily production rate. giving the stock a pretty good lift here in the premarket. up 6%. >>> samsung will acquire decor. and is hoping that acquisition will boost the high end product sales. >>> blue buffalo beating on the top and bottom line. pet food maker hiking outlook for the year and that stock is up just a bit. >> a u.s. judge dismissing a lawsuit that accused twitter of isis. the lawsuit was brought by the widow of an american killed in jordan. she accused the social media of giving the islamic state a voice. judge found it cannot be held accountable for rhetoric, but gave the chance to refile. >> the chief founder of alphabet capital arm is leaving the company kmrks is known as gv. gv was created back in 2009. it's invested in more than 300 companies including uber, jet.com. managing partner david crane will re

one notable piece of economic data. german industrial production rising more than expected in june. bouncing back from a decline from the previous month. also point out that french business sentiment rebounding in sdwrul from an 18-month low in june. in asia, overnight, new data shows that china's exports and imports dropped more than expected. exports declining by 4.4%. sis appointing data from china. closing in positive territory. the japanese nikkei average hitting a one-week high up 2.4%. >> both europe and asia responding to the strong jobs number that we had on friday. wall street's gains on friday afternoon. let's look at oil prices. 1.5%. wti at 42.4. last week, oil prices gained around half a percent. breaking a two-week losing streak. the dollar saw gains to the tune of around -- sorry. saw gains around 0.8%. the broader index. today the dollar gaining against the yen. that's one of the reasons why the nikkei was strong. let's check in on these numbers. slightly softer today. at 13.36. >>> now to the political news. republican presidential nominee, donald trump is set to t

investors have gotten dumb and complacent, it's because the economy is in this sweet spot where the economic data is coming in slow, steady, very few real big negative surprises, and it's the underlying economics and earnings that are really causing this period of kind of steady move higher, rather than investors going to kind of being lulled to sleep on this. >> jeffrey, if i see another story that leads with, last august, the chinese devaluation, why is that -- why are people trying to use last year as a corollary? >> because they're always looking in the rearview mirror than forward looking which what is the equity markets are doing and your other two guests have nailed it. i do think that earnings have come in better than the lowered bar expectations. i think that will continue going forward. you've got very easy comparison coming up in the third and fourth quarter because last year's earnings were terrible. and i do think the market is in a transitional phase from an straight driven bull market to an earnings driven bull market. >> how do you measure valuations right now, jonathan, now that

a busy week of earnings and economic data column in its been a retail sales number to set the tone. we are edging higher. up a third of a percent. markets mostly higher. the markets in asia mostly higher as you can see there. all those stories coming up. with me to talk about it, sandra smith, the wall street journals john huston that jimmy carter. good to see you. take mrs. donald trumps economic plan. we will speak with donald trump this morning and i want everybody stick on what you heard yesterday. nominate donald trump will join me at 7:00 p.m. eastern live together safe standpoint and ideas in terms of moving the needle and economic growth. that interview at 7:00 a.m. donald trump and hillary clinton taking jabs at each other and economic policies on the campaign trail yesterday. >> hillary clinton short-circuited again to use a now famous term when she accidentally told the truth and said that she wanted to raise taxes on the middle class. >> here's the other thing i want you to know. tell your friends, don't let a friend vote trump. economists, left, right, in the middle all

what we should be focusing on is economic data. k it is fair to say the data has come a bit better than people expected especially in the aftermath of the brexit result and the referendum. from that sense, i think there is still a lot of value in european assets. i think the investors are taking that view. guy: he hasn't done anything, spoken much in terms of guidance for five weeks now. get the projections coming up. we get a decision. a press conference. the data is ticking along. why does draghi need to do anything or does he need to do something? reporter: we'll find out. 4 we'll find out coming out of the september meeting. on the whole we'll get a usual very strong pledge or promise to do whatever it takes along these words or similar words in case things deteriorate from here. having said that, we have reached and and it is not just about the e.c.b. we have reached a status that there is a limb to what monetary policy can actually do. from that respect i think even if the e.c.b. does something, it will likely be sometime in q

of a sudden perking up, positive stuff and the fact it's coinciding with stronger than expected economic data, a break outisn't the citigroup economic surprise index, not negative things, guys. >> good stuff. >>> what else is coming up on the "halftime report." >> announcer: stocks may be hitting an all-time high, but wall street's biggest bear says, not so fast, and that stocks are headed for a correction this year. plus -- top retail analyst david telsey upgrading to coach, putting a buy rating ton ahead of next week's earnings. more "halftime report" with scott wapner in two minutes. oh watson, your japanese is very good. thank you. (speaking japanese) exactly. i can understand nuance, context and idiom in seven languages to help companies all over the world with everything from retail solutions, to banking, to cyber security. (speaking japanese) it's time to♪discover that in a lexus suv... ...there's no such thing as adverse conditions. ♪ come to the lexus golden opportunity sales event this is the pursuit of perfection. >>> welcome back to the "halftime report." stocks at all-time highs.

we would like to see a bit better trade data or better economic data coming out of china. we're still overweight. we still like asia. there's a good theme there with china not having a hard landing. as regards trimming treasuries, that's really just a valuation play. we don't think they are the least risky things in the portfolio anymore. in fact we think they are possibly among the most risky. i would call them a time bomb waiting to blow. >> surely they're only a time bomb waiting to happen in inflation sur prices us. what's the risk of that. >> i agree inflation is somewhat subdued, but it's creep creeping up and creeping up in the basket of goods and services and the problem isn't so much that inflation surges unexpectedly, it's the market is pricing at zero inflation. that's the problem for me. >> does it make youer inhou nern you see the volatility in the index being on an 11 handle. >> yes. >> does that concern you? there's a measure of concern out there in the equity market in the u.s. >> it's a bit like mashlgts over the last year. they've plunged and risen. we di

>> this has been a good few months and it's justified by better economic data earnings going forward.s we approach september and talk more about an upcoming fed rate hike. we are telling our clients we don't have to be scared of a rate hike. a rate hike would and good thing because it means the economy is solid enough to justify raising rates. gary: anthony mentioned september and august. can we look back at history where a market is so controlled by the fed, when we think about looking back and thinking ahead? >> i go back hundreds of years in markets. put this into 1928. that's where the federal reserve is now. they manipulated the markets during the 20s and it got out of control. in late 1928 and '29 $lot of investors were shorting the market. a lot of these top guys are hedging and covering their portfolios, or they are not fully disposed. bern majust looking at that timd we are similar. but the 40-year cycle continues if we look at 33-34. we look at the 1930s, 40 years earlier. 1896. similar cycle. go back to the civil war. 1860. same cycle. we are on the cusp of a major shift in

. >> economic data paints the picture of a resilient uk. for all of the doomsday scenarios, it hasn't happened yet or the experts are totally wrong. >> business investment was very poor, whereas retail spending was pretty strong. you wonder how much of that retail spending is tourists in the summer, weaker pound. it might not be sustainable and business investment might have a sign of what's to come. >> we'll watch the other bit of economic data. look for july, personal income and spending here stateside. that's coming out later today on tuesday. we'll get the monthly -- the employment report, chicago tmi. -- second quarter productivity and manufacturing index. wraps up with the jobs report on friday. another light week in terms of earnings. abercrombie & fitch, and lululemon. loud noises at los angel panic as many confused the sounds of gunshots. passengers at lax were seen running from terms terminals after police responded to multiple 9/11 calls from many locations at the airport around 11:45 p.m. eastern time last night. conducted two s

i am seeing more confidence, better economic data. supports the fundamental argument --when would we go overweight? you do want to see more domestic demand rather than speculative investment flow. looking at the data and taking a longer-term view and saying -- have we seen some game changers from an america, asia economic perspective? caroline: what has been fascinating is if you look at the chinese wand yields, it looks -- bond yield, it looks more like a developed economy. we are getting closer to the overall yield. the yuan.onds within the purple line is the j.p. morgan. we are at decade lows. we have calls at 2.5% for the end of the year. not much below that. chinesea story of domestic buyers of bonds? would you be more tempted about international bonds, if you wanted to get away from the fx exposure? asne: you are correct as far a domestic flow and that is the story in china. they are trying to capture and not allow any movement of money outside of china. you have a concentrated investor base that really does drive market basis.

no economic data today, but this week we did get numbers that look better. rial production, housing starts, and the fed minutes that shows this fed is in wait and see mode on the data. as for the u.s. dollar, the trend has been a weaker u.s. dollar. that's helped push the price of oil and gold higher. it's also helped fuel talk that the market is not bracing for an interest rate hike. if that were the case, the dlor would be stronger. the euro is back coming back a bit. overall weaker dollar. stronger dollar against the yen right now. above 100. 100.11 dipped below there yesterday. the pound flexing the muscles this week. >> only flexing its muscles in the second half of the week, which again highlights the extraordinary weakness in the u.s. dollar for the week as a whole. gold prices as well, quick look on them, as we look at things today. little bits of weakness. 1352 # price. >> viacom and redstone have reportedly agreed to terms of a settlement. this would end the battle for control over the $40 billion empire. as part of the agreement here, ceo will leav

the combination of weaker economic data than most of us expected came out last week and the impact orr surrounding brexit, which i think has made corporations continue to be cautious, and one of the things we've seen is corporate spending slow down suggest that the outlook for profit growth coming out of the s&p 500 and the overall market is probably diminished somewhat and in a market that's fairly valued, it's hard to see the market have upside from here. >> so alison, it's dominic, one of the ideas here is this market has been excelled to a pretty decent size degree by dividend paying stocks. the more defensive names like utilities, telecom stocks, consumer staples, they're sitting at multiyear high valuations. given the fact you don't see anything really that positive coming out of the u.s. economy any time soon. >> you know, it's tough. i'm such a value investor. the valuations like high. quite frankly you're being paid to hold onto them. they have strong balance sheets. and when you look at what's out there as far as options, the bond markets look more troublesome we might see r

she talked about rosie data and economic data.mp in rates in september or december this year. dow futures down 21 points. trouble in obamacare. one-third of u.s. counties may have only a single health insu e insurer on the exchange next year. the report found the pull back could mean one option only in 31% of counties. two options in another one-third. why the pull back? companies like united health care and aetna lost too much money and other companies have shutdown. >>> the federal government is officially opening america's skies to drones today. new rules for drones may go into effect today. you may see drones for crop monitoring and film making and firefighting. the rules restrict flying at night. you cannot go higher than 400 feet. they must weigh less than 55 pounds and always in sight of the human operator. the operator has to be licensed by the faa. i will drone on for two more minutes on this. they are good for businesses. it means you won't see drones delivering packages with these rules. this is all a work in progress.

plus it is a big week for british economic data.have an effect on the economic consumer. ♪ david: this is "bloomberg ." i'm david westin. coming up, black rock's chief will join us on the set. alix: the federal reserve is an focuses week and we will hear from several speakers including john williams and robert kaplan on thursday. the minutes released from the july meeting all ahead of janet yellen's speech next week. u.s. economists are still with us. we continue to get overall data that is surprising to the upside of the fed continues to seem more dovish. can you reconcile that for me? [laughter] no. clearre is a very economic buyer. the one negative ways more than a two stronger ones. there is data-dependency, but is not completely symmetric. jon: how do get from a to b? , that iss probably where some of the data surprises and volatility and lack of inflation have the biggest impact on the longer-term outlook. the fed says we are seeing the improvement, the low unemployment rate, but inflation is not picking up as much as we w

big week for economic data. kevin: specially friday actually and reaffirmed what janet yellen is thinking. we will see. everything is leading to a rate hike rand yowp are seeing it play out in the markets right now. maria: the job numbers we are looking at and political side, people right now wait to go see how they strategize ahead of the debate. harlan: this is crunch time. maria: trump economic adviser bethanny mccoy. stay with us. you don't want to miss a moment right now. we kick it off with top stories. donald trump making huge advertising, campaign will spend $10 million in nine states, include ohio, florida, pennsylvania and iowa, of course, the swing states. these are ads, he's expect to go move the needle and help close the gap he has with hillary clinton in the polls, but will they? i want to bring kelly, thank you so much for being with us. >> thank you, maria. maria: a lot of ads, negative ads because she's got the money to do so. >> yeah, by the end of july $600 million worth of television ads to d