lots of investors worried about sentiment when it comes to the us fed right now, because, of course,t the us fed will continue to raise rates and thatis continue to raise rates and that is making global sentiment certainly something on the minds of investors. despite the increased cost of living, many people have been enjoying days out and short trips this easter weekend. but many of the hospitality businesses they are visiting in the uk are suffering from severe staff shortages more than a year after the end of pandemic restrictions. peter ruddick has more. these hands started the debt this morning at 6:30am but there was already an hour ahead of that doing menus ahead of that. so, easter holidays, fun, fun, fun. that. so, easter holidays, fun, fun. fun-— fun, fun. the owner has given more than _ fun, fun. the owner has given more than just _ fun, fun. the owner has given more than just her— fun, fun. the owner has given more than just her name - fun, fun. the owner has given more than just her name to i fun, fun. the owner has given l more than just her name to the business, staff

us federal reserve will do at its meeting next week. the annual rate of inflation has slowed to 5% in march. that's the lowest in nearly 2 years but still well above the fed'sonomy and what the latest gdp performance means for asia, we're joined now by aditya bhave from the bank of america. the details of the framework were actually quite encouraging. there was a bit of drag on inventory, but that tends to be more volatile component of gdp. if we look at the final domestic demand, that was up 3.2% driven by robust consumer spending growth, investment didn't slow down quite as much as we were expecting. government expending accelerated as well. so the details were pretty good. in details were pretty good. in terms of your outlook and concerns about a recession, are those overblown? do you see growth strengthening in the future? ~ growth strengthening in the future? . , , growth strengthening in the future? ., , , ., future? we actually still have a recession _ future? we actually still have a recession in _ future? we actually still have a recession in our— future? we actually still have a recession in our forecast i a recession in ourforecast starting in th

it mean inflation will finally start to get to - will finally start to get to the levels that the us fedghtening cycle may be coming to an end, so to speak? recession would be helpful in bringing inflation back down to target. at the fed is trying to engineer. not a recession per se but trying to slow the economy down in order to weaken demand which is what they can do using monetary policy and get inflation back under control. the problem is inflation is a lagging variable so first we will have to see some weakness in the economy, then in our view by the end of this year we will hopefully be in the low three region on inflation and the end of next year we could get back to target. i year we could get back to taruet. ., ., ., . target. i want to turn to india for ou target. i want to turn to india for you new _ target. i want to turn to india for you now because - target. i want to turn to india for you now because it's - for you now because it's smartphone market has recorded its sharpest ever first quarter decline with shipments to the country falling by 19%. the bbc�*s reporter has mo

it mean inflation will finally start to get to - will finally start to get to the levels that the us fed rate tightening cycle may be coming to an end so to speak?- tightening cycle may be coming to an end so to speak? yes, the recession _ to an end so to speak? yes, the recession would _ to an end so to speak? yes, the recession would be _ to an end so to speak? yes, the recession would be helpful in i recession would be helpful in bringing inflation back down to target, that's essentially what the fed has tried to engineer, not a recession per se but trying to slow the economy down in order to weaken demand which is what they can do using monetary policy and get inflation under control. the problem is inflation is a lagging variables are first will have to see some weakness in the economy, then by the end of this year we will be hopefully in the low three region on inflation and by the end of next year, we could get back to target.— back to target. that's the outlook for _ back to target. that's the outlook for the _ back to target. that's the outlook for the us - back to target. that'

the right tone and, on behalf of zelensky, expressed his most cherished dream, but the head of the us feddently refused to be santa claus. if you could have a printing press, i would be very happy we have one, but we keep it in the basement of personal growth, a marathon of desires and the path to success today led blogger elena blinovskaya to a criminal case, and not paying taxes, she was counted as a shortage of almost a billion rubles. the scheme is the same as that of the previously detained information gypsies who got rich on the sale of illusions to gullible clients, splitting up the business and registering several firms as friends and relatives, reportage. wishes come true in people who are connected to themselves with the perfect dress and stilettos. just yesterday, bloggers elena blinovskaya taught a huge hall the fulfillment of desires. today already in a home jacket and slippers in security guard and driver companies reveals the secrets of a narrower audience to the investigators of the investigative committee. the marathon queen lost hers by not observing the speed limit. she

plays the us fed's rate using, uh, the resources of other countries and use it.l credit. so-called it borrows from other countries imperceptibly for these countries. yes. in this case, just uh, uh, the exporting countries showed. who is real today the sponsor of the american economy and the american way of life. about which it became known, last sunday is absolutely voluntary and additional conditions, deals themselves. these are. back in autumn, the facility plus decided to reduce production by 2 million barrels per day from november to the end of the 23rd year , the fleet was reduced by 2 million. yes, and this also caused a rather violent reaction, a serious increase in prices. eh, so in this case we already know. there's a fairly large number of strange ones joined in this game. here is the key part here to make the effect plus there plan. well , in fact, outside the framework, plus counts on the fact that while this story joins, someone will not be here for us anymore in a wave, there will most likely be no provision. that is. well, we are reducing whether o

read on us inflation for the month of march and we will also be looking out for minutes from the us fed'sigh to the cost of borrowing from another 25 basis points despite talks of a possible pause. i was talking about that little early. despite the increased cost of living we are seeing all of the roman people are still expected to be enjoying things out and short trips this easter weekend. however, many of the hospitality businesses, they will be visiting in the uk or have been visiting in the uk, i should say, are still suffering from severe staff shortages more than a year after the pandemic restrictions. reporter has been to the district to find out about some of the problems and possible solutions. these hands and started the deck this morning at 630 in here. but there was already an hour ahead of that during menus today. easter holidays fun fun fun. in this kitchen the owner has given more than just turning to the business was to staff shortages meaning she has to fill many of the struggles or so. it meaning she has to fill many of the struggles or so.— the struggles or so. it has c

read on us inflation for the month of march and we will also be looking out for minutes from the us fed'st hiked the cost of borrowing by another 25 basis points despite talks of a possible pause. take a look at food prices. according to the united nations was latest index, international food commodity prices dipped for the 12th consecutive month in muscles the index, released on friday, cited ample supplies, subdued employment, an extension of the black sea's green initiative as reasons for the decline. despite the positive trends, an analyst from the economist intelligence unit told me there are economies in asia that are still dealing with sticky inflation.— still dealing with sticky inflation. , . ., , inflation. yes, the countries that have — inflation. yes, the countries that have seen _ inflation. yes, the countries that have seen sticky - inflation. yes, the countries i that have seen sticky inflation are the likes of the philippines and singapore and to a certain extentjapan. and that has to do with, you know, what is the idiosyncrasy of that economy, not the food price trends gl

aye i only fed us on thursday. i was at my — ways? aye i only fed us on thursday. at my gran's i _ ways? aye i only fed us on thursday. i was at my gran's i think _ ways? aye i only fed us on thursday. i was at my gran's i think the - ways? aye i only fed us on thursday. i was at my gran's i think the could i i was at my gran's i think the could be i was at my gran's i think the could he a _ i was at my gran's i think the could he a hit _ i was at my gran's i think the could be a bit more advertising or something. i had no idea. what if ou were something. i had no idea. what if you were in _ something. i had no idea. what if you were in an — something. i had no idea. what if you were in an area _ something. i had no idea. what if you were in an area that - something. i had no idea. what if you were in an area that was - something. i had no idea. what if| you were in an area that was badly flooded? will be important to know that was happening is that you think in that sense in that situation it would be a good idea. i in that sense in that situation it would be a goo

minimum since december of the twenty-first year due to fears of a banking crisis and an increase in us fedin addition , american offshore production is no longer growing as actively as several years ago, which means that the country of opek plus is now less they are afraid that because of the reduction in production. they may lose significant market share. world oil prices after all this news shot up during the auction, the wt brand and the brand went up by six dollars in these minutes. they are in positive territory by almost 4.5 dollars in the leaders of growth on the moscow exchange, of course, the shares of neftchilars but in general, the indices of the moscow exchange by lunchtime, nevertheless, slowed down their upward movement. and the ruble stopped paying attention to rising oil prices. and now the dollar is even getting cheaper, it costs 77.90 euros, 8453. today, the rosenergo concern atom announced that in january march 23, russian nuclear power plants generated more than 53 billion 500 million kwh and thus exceeded the task in the federal antimonopoly service by almost 4.5% , ac

they took good care of us, fed us as much as they could and basically tried to keep us safe.saf have control of different areas and the military, khartoum airport is not a viable option because there is fighting in and around the airport which isjust fighting in and around the airport which is just incredible. fighting in and around the airport which isjust incredible. no way fighting in and around the airport which is just incredible. no way any flights would be able to come in or out. ~ �* . . flights would be able to come in or out. ~ �* ., . ., ., ., out. we've watched that around the main airport — out. we've watched that around the main airport over _ out. we've watched that around the main airport over the _ out. we've watched that around the main airport over the last _ out. we've watched that around the main airport over the last ten, - out. we've watched that around the main airport over the last ten, 12 i main airport over the last ten, 12 days. that's where so much of the fighting is centred. where you were in khartoum, i got a description from you, you talk about

they took good care of us, fed us as much as they could and basically tried to keep us safe. understand that the rsf and the saf have control of different areas and the military, the khartoum airport is not a viable option because there is fighting in and around the airport, it is just incredible. it is incredible the way any flights are able to come in or out. ., any flights are able to come in or out. . . , any flights are able to come in or out. . .,, , ., any flights are able to come in or out. . ., , . ., any flights are able to come in or out. . .,, , ., ., .,, any flights are able to come in or out. . , ., ., ., ., out. that was osman, who has got to madrid, out. that was osman, who has got to madrid. talking _ out. that was osman, who has got to madrid, talking about _ out. that was osman, who has got to madrid, talking about what _ out. that was osman, who has got to madrid, talking about what it - out. that was osman, who has got to madrid, talking about what it was - madrid, talking about what it was like getting out and talking about survivor's guilt in terms of w

president barken of the richmond fed told us in the last hour that the trend is going in the right direction on inflation, but we are not where the fed wants us to be listen >> i certainly think we're past peak on inflation, but we still have a ways to go. and shelter came in at 0.6, which if you multiply that by 12 is over 7%, year over year core services came in at 0.4, which if you multiply that by 12, is about 5 if you want to get down to 2%, we're still a ways from there. >> a ways from there those comments taking some steam off the stock market right now the s&p 500 has gone negative. it was higher on inflation treasury yields right now. they were lower off the back of the inflation report, coming in cooler than expected that was considered good news. there's the ten-year note and the two-year note, so we're still talking about lower yields investors are still pricing in a 69% chance of a 25 basis point hike in may. the next fed meeting and that's down from close to 80% yesterday. allianz out with some comments in the last half hour saying the data doesn't

us there? is that the ecb hiking aggressively, or the fed cutting?ntoine: the biggest driver will be the fed cutting. or the market anticipating these cuts. they will price that well in advance and have in fact price that a lot of already. dani: i was so excited, i spilled my water. antoine: on the other hand, the ecb is not in a position to contemplate cutting rates. service inflation keeps rising, the european central bank will need to keep this 50 basis point hike on the table. dani: we will have to wrap it up there. i'm so glad the camera was on you, for those who saw me scream, it is because i just spilled my water. antoine, always a pleasure to have you on, keeping calm as i spill my drink over here. antoine bouvet, senior rates strategist at ing bank. plenty more to come on bloomberg. ♪ dani: let's get your first word news with sam etienne. >> u.s. house passed a debt limit will aimed at averting a catastrophic u.s. default. the vote puts pressure on president biden who opposes this weeping spending cuts to open talks with republican leaders.

feds path ahead. let's bring in gerber it gill. good morning. happy friday. thank you for joining us. we heard the officials out of the fed.he consensus that you get another hike in may. the view that you will have to hold at those levels in order to get inflation down loss they keep a firm i on the risks within the financial system. for me, what jumped out was softer data. maybe you can push back on this or confirm it. it feels like we are now in the foothills of a recession in the u.s.. when we look at house prices coming off, the softness in manufacturing, even the labor market is starting to look one rubble, is that where we are at now? >> hi. first of all, good morning and thanks for having me on the show. i would say that the data in our mind paints a picture of a moderating but still resilient economy. it is worth reflecting that the u.s. economy added a million jobs in the first quarter. that hasn't happened since 1997. the preliminary surveys for april are showing that sentiment on main street is actually less downbeat than wall street. you saw the consumer sentiment edge higher. we've seen business surveys stay r

lowering the barriers on the industry side to check the boxes and make it to the requirements on us for the fed ramp. it can be very costly, time consuming, frustrating to be wanting to do the right thing and be a corporate citizen and have cyber responsibilities, and then wait for weeks, months, just for a response from the office that we submitted the package to. that is one barrier to partnership. is there dialogue, or discussion on going to help industry do the things that government is requiring us to do to be good partners? >> i can start. i will start with a couple of comments. the strategy in pillar one -- i will make it short. it is using some of our regulatory authority in order to be able to shift the balance. but we do it in three parts. they are coequal. we harmonize with regulatory burdens and find reciprocity where we can. we find gaps where we are not using our regulatory authority to raise the requirements. with full consultations to those regulators, it bears a burden. with the admits trader, we are working through that particular complication and is acknowledged. we are tryin

one in five americans are using buy now, pay later apps to buy groceries, not just appliances or tvs my next guest says the fedds to pivot fast to avoid a recession. join us now is mark zandi. good to see you, mark. do you want to jump in how important is this consumer pessimism as an input to what happens here with the economy? >> well, it matters. at the end of the day, a recession is a loss of faith consumers lose faith they will hold on to their jobs and pull back on spending so this matters. but i will say there is lots of different surveys. the one i find most useful engaging prospects for the economy, recession, and no slant against the cnbc survey, but it's the conference board survey i find that to be much more presient it's consistent with this long-run average, and no signs of weakening there and you see this big collapse in confidence, people running for the bunkers, they stop spending, i don't see that >> the market is interesting you're saying the fed needs to pivot or we will be in a recession. given the debate we were just having, where investors are saying the banks are telling us we're in a r

some economists saying this tells us the fed should not raise rates again. till hotter than expected, which tells us perhaps the fed will move by 25 basis points next wednesday. >> how does the stock market react to this? >> i think there's a growing narrative that the fed may pause. you are seeing stocks higher by triple digits. the earnings reports from hilton, visa and american express are showing the consumer is strong. more people travel there's still areas or pockets of the economy that are showing strength and perhaps leeading to green across the screen. >>> that wraps up the hour for me you can reach me on twitter and instagram. you can watch highlights from today's show online. inc there's a lot more i thank you for the privilege of your time. andrea mitchell picks up with more news right now. >>> right now on "andrea mitchell reports," speaker mccarthy winning a key house vote, tieing massive spending cuts to the debt ceiling will it force president biden to negotiate as the debt ceiling crisis looms >>> this hour, florida governor ron desantis, con

and that tells us the fed might have to keep rates higher for longer.today is the reaction that came through very much focused on what the numbers were overnight and amazon under pressure but still large cap names reporting and corporate america with standing rising rates and prices. we are watching tech stocks outpacing but also watching the korean won unchanged this morning but industrial output falling less than expected in south korea in march down 7.6% on the year in the estimate for 10.2%. australia, geopolitics they are a watch because we saw a delegation of large australian companies had to china this week in the biggest diet we have seen in the frosty relations between the country's warming again and that is something we are watching. brent crude is spiking back to navigate the economic signals coming through but really the focus in the session in asia today really comes down to the boj. shery: kathleen hays has our next guest. kathleen: i am here with the nikko asset management. inflation maybe not looking as strong but he has a view that step

fed up with the injustice. help usrighten the lives of children all over the world by visiting getfedupnow.org. for as little as $10 a month, you can join save the children as we support children and families in desperate need of our help. now is the time to get fed up and give back. when you join the cause, your $10 monthly donation can help communities in need of life-saving treatments and nutrients, prevent children from dropping out of school. support our work with communities and governments to help children go from short-term surviving to long-term thriving. and now thanks to special government grants, every dollar you give before december 31st can multiply up to 10 times the impact. that means more food, water, medicine and help for kids around the world. you'll also receive a free tote bag to share your support for children in need. childhood without food is unimaginable. get fed up. call us now or visit getfedupnow.org today. this is what the san francisco giants dealt with yesterday. they got the tarps down o

yes, there were four of us and the russian soldiers came and fed us.ok them completely under their care, in order to save the guys, the russian military evacuated them to one of the medical centers. donetsk, then, due to regular shelling, the guys were transported even further, the advanced bogdan ended up in the orphanage of yegorievsk, and then he chose foster parents for himself, who raised 11 children. the first thing that catches your eye in the new family of bogdan is really drawn to him and they love him and the guy does not reciprocate, but the normal life of a teenager 2 a week ago, a call from an independent lady interrupted, posing as his lawyer, ekaterina , and said that the guy urgently needed to return to ukraine after the young man refused. the entrance sent hints with threats and said that she knew all the information about me. and where i live, where i study, what time i go out and the like, everything says that, as it were, either they will pick you up or you will come yourself. it was an offer that could not be refused. instructions

what people are missing on this inflation story is it's more than just rate, everybody is expected us, the fedsed rates, it would quell inflation. the reality is it money supply. a measure of money 40% in two years, a record, who's ever seen anything like it. we barely pull back on money supply the last year or so so until money supply goes down, expect inflation to be stubborn and that's going to create a problem for the fed to accomplished what it wants. stuart: played a second -- >> trillion dollars of spending into the system and not expect that to have an impact on inflation. stuart: we still got a huge month jump in the money supply, a big jump and spending, i take it you don't think inflation gets much below four or 5% the immediate future? >> i think the fed has a challenge, they are going to talk about it but i think it's going to stay stubbornly high but they are between a rock and a hard place, the economy is headed for a recession, the markets are going to be volatile. not a bad time for cash wrinkly and. stuart: that's when getting up so -- >> they could disrupt the banks once aga

headed boucher talking to us earlier on. the fed, one and done. certainly seems to be the consensus at the moment. michael an hour ira jersey -- michael mckee and ira jersey joining us now. ira, one and done, is that right? ira: i think that is right. with the marker -- market may be getting wrong is the expectation for because later in the year. just because inflation will continue to be above the fed's comfort level. unless you get a serious spike in the unemployment rate, i do not see whether federal reserve will cut. if they cut, i think they will cut a line quickly but that is probably still a 2020 or event. the market will have to adjust for that eventuality at somewhere in the next quarter or so. alix: might come a get any clarity on this? one, done, and then ? mike: the fed has a lot of data coming after this. this was during the period of the highest big volatility. we will get discussion on what to they were thinking at this time about the banks. as we heard from another of said -- a number of fed officials, that seems to have calmed down

i can tell you that all of us, all of us, we immediately fed the seriousness the importance of the moment. and that's why, on, in a few hours we've been able to take from them until the soon in terms of support for your queen and sanctions against russia. you've spoken by phone to vladimir putin over the course of the last year. if you had to pick one concrete result from the conversation from the discussion, what would it be when i had form cautiously and after the start of the 1st taylor business, start out of the way i had to do so we had to choose to focus on some human to insurances and attend you in the example one creatures. obviously this is, this is very important to allow some humanitarian agencies the request for instance, in our washing clothes to intact with disorganization, to make sure that they would have access to some territories in order to provide some support. certain example gets sent of prisoners very quickly after the start of the tools started through some international agencies on the sort of prisoners. these are 2 examples and point 3, i think it's very importan

maybe you shouldn't pander to markets and -- >> in the past the fed has tried to use the wealth effect zero to bolster the health effect to help. that's why we had a fed put for so long. you don't think we've ever tried that -- >> i'm not going to get in an argument about history i'm going to just say at this moment when i say we need to look at what the market is doing for us in monetary policy, i'm talking about credit conditions on the ground for regular -- in the real economy, regular businesses if the stock market reacts, so be it, but that's not what i think that the fed's primary instrument should be right now it should not be using the wealth effect of stock market wealth to try to steer the economy. i think that right now this credit condition is the -- >> but the fed uses the pandemic for saying -- why can't i use that as an excuse? you weren't back here. there was a pandemic how were we supposed to go to dinner or lunch when there was a pandemic you forgot there was a pandemic? >> you waited me out, joe. and now i'm not allowed to say anything now i have to pay for my own di

for us it did, it made us take out expectations for a further fed rate hike. ok out expectations of recession and made us less worried about how entrenched or inflation to get back to the fed target. charles: one of the issues we always talk about with inflation is the strength of consumer. couple days ago i saw this chart. invictus put it out. there has been a monster spike, like gigantic spike people searching for excess savings. if people are looking for this, wondering where is mine? can the consumer save the day. can the consumer no longer save the day? >> i think as it gets more and more difficult for consumers to get credit, i think we'll see a tightening of financial bank credit conditions i think it will be you know, very difficult for consumers to continue spending at the pace they have been spending. you and i talked about how surprising the resilient the consumer has been able to be in the face of sharply higher interest rates. i attributed that, you skeptically thinking there is still more savings around than we realize. that is for the most part r

they have been known to the use being fed information that they believe is correct.ne isolation because they have them integrating now i will highlight, on the confidential data point, it's up to the user to make that good judgment of what you put into that trap, bu there there was a couple of employees that put confidential source codes. ticket there is so much negativ about this. the impact in productivity. apparently it's up 14 percent o average. of 14 percent already i would say. >> wright, and i think you're going to see a lot of businesses . >> imagine, the dana and built robots. never a bad hair day though. >> writes. you think that would be funny? >> ticket they would never be a funny as you. >> and they couldn't love percy as much as you. >> exactly. thank you. >> there is no other candidate for the republican nominee that can go into a one and do what w need to have done in our countr and reverse all the disastrous policies of this biden administration. >> we are just talking about th president, our country is in th real problem and you've got to be able to

it isn't causing enough serious pain in this gigantic industry that is the used car business. the fed wants pain if they're going to beat inflation, they need to see some marginal businesses go under that's how it starts once they get enough firms to collapse, they have a real chance to slow things down because of the mass unemployment that would occur if we had a collapse of major car dealers. but the opposite happened today. the most marginal player in the industry looks increasingly like it will stay afloat. there will be hefty layoffs. you also want a number from carmax that will be bad enough to shake out the weaker players and cause some layoffs and then lower inflation. the fed didn't get it. the strength of carmax is to keep them alive so there are no mass layoffs in this industry after today. even though pricing is substantially down, they've been climbing higher the last three months, complicating matters even further a job undone at least when it come to the poor fit the second problem for the fed stock prices it was housing, stocks were on fire this is an industry that loo

against this backdrop, all attention to the further actions of the fed, us yes, investors expect thatuation in the banking sector will still push the fed to take a break in tightening monetary credit policy. some even had timid hopes that the regulator would lower the rate by the end of the year. maybe go for it to support the economy and the stock market. however, analysts are confident that inflation is unlikely. still far from the 2% target. and tightening monetary policy. perhaps it will be the only way to prevent a recession in the united states and, therefore, in the world as a whole , rustam kasumov together. completion of the issue , let me remind you that the exchange rate for today is the dollar 79.49 euros eighty-seven rubles nine kopecks. and that's all for me for now. thank you roman alexander. and now the very last message of the supreme state council of the union state will be held today by russian president vladimir putin alexander lukashenko to discuss the results of joint work and issues of ensuring the security of the two states. during a terrorist operation, while

i think we will have to see it in the data, the jobs data for the fed to save we need to use monetary policy. i think right now we are not there which is why i think that curve that you're going to ask me about i think it's hard for it to keep seeping until the fed says were going to use monetary policy they're going to need to see the unemployment rate north of 4% we are very far from that for them to say we are sort of done were getting to ease. john cowan is going to stick with us the market view at the moment which is pricing in the bond market and the view of some fed officials tom: it's all coming at us lightning speed and she said the capitol issue moving forward -- from liquidity issue. a single sentence on commercial real estate. jonathan: i keep going back to the calendar. payroll in about one hour 20 minutes. then onto april cpi. in two next week some bank release. that's up next and a little bit later we catch up with -- and find tom: tiger woods tees up at 4:52 p.m.. jonathan: he's doing better than well. tom: 30's on the 15th at the 16 this is tigers day. jonathan: are w

scares the hell out of me when the fed says nothing to do with us. we trust the fed says our handiwork is not evident in the demise of these banks? >> oh, my first reaction -- jackie: charles: can say poppycock because it is cable. >> you have to be crazy, right but actually on that point he is right and here's why, because market interest rates have been ahead of the fed this whole tightening cycle. the fed was so slow to start fighting inflation, that five-year note yields 10-year note yields were already elevated. they would be higher if we didn't think the fed was credibly fighting inflation. on that he is right. where the fed did contribute how about identifying big problems -- charles: oversight part of it. >> they're not doing anything. charles: that is the concern about 75, 75, 75, 75 rate hikes, the fastest, most aggressive rate hiking cycle in history. you do think there is accountability with respect to the san francisco fed and others who should have seen this coming? >> look where mortgage rates are for example. they peaked months ago. th

the fed funds future curve is telling us conclusively when it switches it will be easing. at is a pretty blunt instrument that the fed uses, my gosh, there is problems, throw a bunch of money at the system. some money goes into stocks. but remember stocks are the companies that are suffering from the potential recession that is going to happen. there is a ton of escape velocity, like gold and silver. that is why i in those. copper is economically sensitive. at the same time we're seeing a move to decarbonization, putting ton of money toward that. any downside is softened by the potential for electrification. bitcoin is function of, it was designed really because of problems and lack of confidence in the banking system. what happened a month ago? problems in the banking system. charles: you're an institutional guy who has been favorable toward bitcoin and crypto in general. why is that? do you think there is legitimate seed there? looks like certainly playing out at the biggest test it had so far? >> i have zero idea if there is legitimacy to it or not. what i do know if the

approached the fence, asked for a drink, asked me the password, polyanytsia , did we pronounce, they fed used borshon, as i remember now, the hostess did not show up at home, diana, the policewoman, and she was on duty, how did she know i'm you, igor, why did you decide to invite them to your home after all? it all works out. it seems to me that the local partisans saw the consequences of the battle. columns were shot on the highway. the guys from the anniversary party did a great job. those who were lucky enough to survive we were captured, our losses in that battle were only in equipment, we knocked out a tank with our own hands volyn well, they are in the lord god, i will tell you this, the next battles are not so successful already in the mykolaiv region, igor's unit was ambushed, fire was coming from their side, not only large-caliber guns, you could say a 30-millimeter cannon with a bmp-2 was working there, and anti-tank grenade launchers were working there, a heavy multiple wound in both legs, igor could only crawl, realizing that he was not evacuating , he prepared anti-tank grenade

fed's hiking cycle is over let's bring in michelle garrard and c nbc's steve liesman. >> i think that's right. i don't know if it's two points for the recession camp, certainly for those of us think the fed's heightening cycle is over. are we dug in that the fed couldn't go again in may you know, the bottom line is, it's like we felt last month you're really essentially at the peak, we talked about the numbers over the last couple of days, the tone of the fomc minutes yesterday. all of that has us a little more confident that you won't see another move in may. >> it's not the consensus. you okay going against that? do you think they're going to come around? >> again, i just think the minutes yesterday did suggest several would have been in favor of pausing so i think sense then, the data hasn't been compelling and should give them more confidence that things are moving in the direction that they anticipate i think it's also just about going forward. the expectations about where we're headed i do think we're going to see weaker consumer spending data tomorrow there are signs of a bit more stress on the consumer side. we're all concerned about a credit crunch this year. if yo

the fed minutes from that meeting are out right now, let us go to michael mckee in washington. weeks ago, the fed meant and a downbeat meeting it was for policymakers.

us. it is still about the fed and inflation. it remains sticky.r 6%, still way off. >> absolutely. that is been eric review. for the next couple of months, a couple of core pc inflation in the united states. our view is that given that we have the jitters in the u.s. by the world banking system, we have the u.s. pretty much benign, it is idiosyncratic. growth is holding up nicely in the u.s.. it sets us up for our forecast for the fed funds rate. this year. because the bond market is pretty wrong. expect -- investors are respecting that seven point basis cap. how would the bond markets play out then? >> that is what we were saying about a month ago. they also -- they'll have to go on the long end of the curve. we are going to go back up at 3.5 to percent range. that is the reason for so much uncertainty. i think that is the way we think about acid evolution. >> you are talking yields but if you do still go up to that level, the yield you would be getting. >> again, it really depends. all of those are directionally where yields are going. those wil

. >> use of fed i recall funds in this prosecution, we also know this grew out of the special council investigation and of course that statute is a federal statute. and maybe most importantly as everyone understands this is election interference. everything is on the table. >> president trump's next hearing date is scheduled for december 4th. the trial, if there is one, could begin in january right at the start of the 2024 presidential primary season. todd. >> we are going to have a lot more on that coming up. we could spend these entire two hours of this show how wrong this indictment is and how it doesn't hold water legally. there is one point i want to make i'm not hearing a lot of people talk about. read it, one date, year, 2017, not only does that not pass the statute of limitations, trump was in office at that point, he already was the president. so, any potential election interference, it doesn't matter. he was already in the office, a lot more on that brooke, thank you for the summary. with that, eric trump deend iing his father as the 2024 presidential campaign kicks into gea

us? and what is the market and fed telling us and are they different? liz: it was an important point. i scratched it down. if you look at a few sides of the coin, the market is pricing in three cuts. trading some optionality, how bad could get? bloomberg economics put out a report yesterday saying signs of, on the economy and the yield curve that they move forward, the recession starting in july. but bloomberg economics does not see cuts this year and they say up to five and a quarter and they hold. goldman sachs is on the lower end of calling for a recession, low 50% and they same no cuts there. either. stan higher for longer, like loretta said, she sees inflation getting to 2% in 2025. alex -- alix: we see this moves in the bond market and the fed market repricing, is this not a fundamental story? i don't get why the market keeps fighting. >> part of it was zisman, a big wave of short governing people got slammed and thought rates would keep going up. now people are talking to somebody saying the fed could do nothing or what if they have to cut over 100 basis points. they are pricin

here in prison they fed us pasta all the time. i'm obviously bored. i actually can do more than pasta. we just have a refrigerator. want? rice took meat, no meat is better to take in a tent. osho, you always have fresh food with him, what are you waiting for guests, do you want pilaf? yes, so, here they are listening. put the money back. and what else is this, and who are you, a woman? i'm sorry, i just saw how your daughter wanted this room, we don't need anything else. we have everything. you buy for your children, but don’t interfere with strangers so that i want what’s best, it’s just nothing for me . we don't need your handouts. forward. go ahead, said, children must not cry. this is my child. and i myself know how to educate him, and you do not climb forward. about this absolutely not, you also know, i'll do it anyway with or without you. have you seen the peephole with the boss's daughter or are you shy, that a girl brings you to work, don't talk nonsense. i need to visit you for a couple of minutes. ok then. i brought a prostitute at night, bu

he also fed us there in the subway, and i was in the subway. there is a bee. and now i come here. am very grateful. from japan and now also from ukraine says that his main task is to feed all the people exhausted by the war . he is not going to go home. i am glad for every person who comes here. i am very happy to open the fominori cafe. friends from nataliya kharkova now manages the establishment and prepared dinners for seminars back then in the subway. she is happy that they managed to open a full-fledged cafe. she says that they try not to leave everyone in line hungry and have to wriggle out when the dishes run out. well, we are an old woman and we have a spare option if we run to the next door. well, for now. you have just seen how we do it. i can see that it will soon be over. we need to do something. the cafe is open every day from 12:00 until the last visitor . we manage to feed 400 people in one working day from kharkiv for the espresso tv channel. poseidon, thanks to all of you, we raised uah 4 million for a drone for the fighters of the joint tactical group adam, the t

with expectations at post 9, bank new york mellon sonia is with us we've been talking about the fed all week does the trajectory of the commentary feel sturdy to you, may at least >> i think the decision about may has pretty much been made. i would say both the fed and investors are probably thinking more about june. >> june you think is possible? >> i believe that. we'll be looking for what sort of indication chair powell, the stat statement, any kind of commentary even before the meeting would tell us about the possible move in june. >> should we be taking this morning's pmi's and europe's pmis, for that matter, as reliable indicators or is some of this survey data, the softer data, still a little suspect >> i think that data has generally been quite mixed we had empire state in the u.s., the philly fed the headline wasn't that strong but the underlying components were quite a bit stronger the data has been mixed and hasn't given us too much direction one way or another on net. >> what is your number for q1 gdp next week? >> i think it could possible 2%. i think it could be quite

year over year, using actual housing data not the delayed housing data that the fed uses. >> so, thatd uses when? >> oh, at the end of the year. probably september, october, november begin to really show up. powell himself has admitted that the housing data has lagged and they're going to see that decline later. yet on the other side of his mouth, he talks about, oh, yeah, we're way too high, year over year i was really pretty surprised. he said we haven't made enough progress, for instance, for inflation, again he's looking at lag data and i think that's where the fed is making the picks. the second place, andrew, is the cumulative effect of monetary tightening, plus the banking crisis is yet to be felt so there's a lot of tightening still in the pipeline, given the progress we've made, going higher, risking a recession, which i don't think the fed should be risking. >> okay, given what you just said and what you think the fed may do, how do you therefore think about equities right now >> well, you know, at the very beginning of the year, before the market opened, i said, this looked

us thank you very much. madison alworth. talking fed heads setting off recession worries once again. just ahead the specific comments from voting members that came out in the last couple of hours. austin goulsby and christopher waller that caused likelihood for a 25 basis point hike in may to surge and we'll talk to the man who correctly predicted the last eight recessions because he created the key indicator, yes, the yield curve inversion. well just three years ago he told us this time it be wrong and it wouldn't signal a re segment let's find out what campbell harvey thinks, he's joining us next coming right back when the "clayman countdown" returns. the future is here. we've been creating it for more than 100 years, putting the most advanced technology into people's hands. generation after generation. tool after tool. again and again. bringing you the broadest and most reliable network of service dealers. always moving forward. we lead. others follow. (psst psst) ahhhh... with flonase, allergies don't have to be scary spraying flonase daily gives you long-lasting, non-drowsy reli

get fed up. call usow or visit getfedupnow.org today. >>> these live pictures this morning are just incredible the fog out there. all right. well lets get to sports. the giants started against the dodgers in a disappointing way. a blowout at san francisco fell to l. a. 9-1. logan webb allowed four runs in six innings. the dodgers only allowed one run through six and meanwhile third baseman dominated with two home runs. the giants alex wood faces off against dustin may tonight. >>> the warriors wrapped up the regular season with a win over portland and now the team is unveiling specialer septembers to get fans fired up for the playoffs. team announced thursday it will be blue and gold day in the bay. fans will get a discount on official warriors merchandise and flag raising ceremonies are planned at city hall in san francisco, san jose, and oakland on saturday. thrive city will host a warriors' watch party for game one against the kings. >>> if you are wanting to take the short drive to sacramento to see

john williams of the new york fed will speak on the banking stressed saying this -- wells fargo joins us. have we got the all clear to hike again in early may? >> i think the fed is comfortable to hike again. it's more in terms of the guidance. we thought powell was concerned in terms of his rhetoric after the last meeting and now that things have cooled down a little bit on the banking front, we think the fed can continue to hike but -- but i think there is lingering concern over credit tightening. there is softness that we've seen and i think the fed will be more forward-looking in terms of their outlook on inflation. i think they will be cautious but not necessarily signaling an end to this tightening cycle. they will still dangle that front of the market but it seems the fed is pretty much done from our perspective. lisa: what is the message we have got from the regional banks? we've heard from a number of fed members concerned about credit tightening. has that been confirmed from what we've seen so far from the regionals? >> it's tough to say. we had the beige book yesterday as well