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here to help dig into the numbers is steve kornacki, nbc news national purse -- political correspondentard. we just want to know, what are you seeing with this new poll? >> jen, as you said, a big lead here for donald trump. you see a lot of reasons why he has that laid. but some questions about whether there is a ceiling here, and whether there are indeed a few candidates who could potentially move up in the polls and give trump a run for his money in iowa. first, the bottom line here is this is we asked folks who is your first choice. likely republican caucus goers here, trump has a better than 2 to 1 advantage over his nearest rival. ron desantis after 19%, trump at 42%. no one else in double digits. we also asked folks who would your second choice b, outside that first choice, here you see something interesting. we do see trump as the second choice at 10%, you could see that 40 to potentially moving up a little bit for him. ron desantis is actually the number one second choice on this list here, with 20%. but what you really see is this second choice number is spread out. there is n

steve kornacki is at the big board.s could be the single biggest night for any of these candidates hoping to take advantage of donald trump's absence. >> we have been seeing in different polls that donald trump has an enormous lead. this is our new nbc news des moines register poll of the first caucus state of iowa. here you see trump's lead at 42%. desantis, the second place but at 19%. no one else in double digits. trump not there tonight. who has the biggest opportunity on paper to move up? is there room here for one of the candidates to make this a race with trump? when you dig deeper into the numbers, you see two candidates who have an obvious opportunity tonight. it's desantis and tim scott. it's because of this, let me show you what we did here. we asked folks in this poll not just who their first choice is. on the first choice, trump is way ahead. we asked their second choice and running through all of the candidates, are they -- tell me who you are actively considering. maybe you are not voting for them yet, bu

steve kornacki, thank you for laying that out for us. >>> let's bring into the conversation now rick tyler and democratic strategist. we mentioned earlier the pence reaction saying anyone who puts himself over the constitution should never be president of the united states. now he's not the only 2024 hopeful with that message. take a listen. >> he's 78 years old and the -- if any one of those counts is found, he's found guilty, he's going to be in prison for the rest of his life. that's what he's focused on. >> donald trump, for the good of the country, should drop out of the race. now he won't. but that's what should happen. >> but here's the thing, these are the candidates who have already been critical of trump and we saw will hurd get booed recently at a republican event for similar criticism. so, rick, even with, you know, all these details, what do you think? will trump's critics get any more traction? >> no. i don't think anything is going to change. i think it's going to stay on the same trajectory, unfortunately. the indictment

steve kornacki here to break it all down for us when we come back in just 60 seconds. eve, it's great seeing you. you're watching "josÉ diaz-balart reports" on msnbc. Ée diaz-balart reports" on msnbc. so congested! you need sinex saline from vicks. just sinex, breathe, ahhhh! [sniffs] what is — wow! baby: daddy. sinex. breathe. ahhhhhh! age is just a number, and mine's unlisted. try boost® high protein with 20 grams of protein for muscle health versus 16 grams in ensure® high protein. boost® high protein. now available in cinnabon® bakery-inspired flavor. learn more at boost.com/tv >>> 15 past the hour. we're getting a new look at where things stand in iowa just two days before the first republican presidential debate. a brand new nbc news des moines register media com policy gives donald trump a huge lead over his rivals. nbc news national political correspondent steve kornacki is with us with a closer look at the numbers. steve, what do they tell us? >> yeah, well, as you say, jose, this is starting at -- this is the first des moines register nbc poll this cycle, and

steve kornacki takes us back to some 2016 debate moments that could provide some clues. >>> plus, an emotional county meeting in maui in the aftermath of hawaii's fires. >> we've lost our people. we've lost our homes, and for some we've lost our purpose. >>> and later, the high wire rescue of children stuck in this gondola hanging 900 feet over a ravine. gn business? we're exploding. but my old internet, was not letting me run the show. so, we switched to verizon business internet. they have business grade internet, nationwide. (vo) make the switch. it's your business. it's your verizon. (christina) with verizon business unlimited, i get 5g, truly unlimited data, and unlimited hotspot data. so, no matter what, i'm running this kitchen. (vo) make the switch. it's your business. it's your verizon. >>> tonight wisconsin becomes the center of the political universe. we expect to see eight candidates on stage for the first gop debate of the 2024 cycle with ron desantis and vivek ramaswamy standing there at the center. notably absent is donald trump who opted for a tucker carlson interview

joining me now is nbc's national political correspondent steve kornacki, from the big board. e something different about this indictment? do you think the results might change since he has been gaining money and support in the polls with every legal vote? >> it is an interesting question if anything is going to be different in terms of the political fallout from this latest indictment of the donald trump. we have seen a pattern all year with the indictments and the investigations. it has been clear so far. we have seen polling -- not related exactly to this indictment, but polling around these issues. this is from "the new york times," just before this indictment, asked republican voters, has donald trump committed serious federal crimes? republican voters say, no, he hasn't. more than 70%. in sharp contrast with where the entire electorate is among all voters, a small majority, but a majority, 51% say the former president has committed serious federal crimes. that huge gap between where republicans are and the general electorate, we have seen it all year. we see on the questi

nbc's steve kornacki joins us from the big board to break down the numbers.e also joined by charlie sykes, editor at large from the bulwark and an msnbc columnist. this poll is a result of a new partnership with ann seltzer. this is the gold standard. what does it tell us. >> it's a great partnership. this is the iowa poll that everyone in politics has been waiting for, the first read from ann seltzer, "the des moines register," nbc news sponsoring this poll. trump with a better than 2-1 advantage over his rival, ron desantis. nobody else in double digits yet. tim scott at 9. a scattering for the rest of them. this poll was conducted a week ago as that indictment of donald trump in georgia was playing out. basically part of the poll was conducted before the news of that indictment, and in that portion of the poll, trump's lead over desantis was 18. and then part of this poll was conducted after the indictment, when that news had broken, and in that portion of the poll when it was conducted, trump's lead swelled to 25 points. a little bit of evidence there of

joining us now is nbc news national political correspondent steve kornacki. news correspondent, vaughn hillyard is going to join us in just a moment from des moines, and "new york times" reporter and msnbc contributor, jeremy peters. steve, i want to get the numbers first. bring me nationally with our nbc news poll, the brand new one, and also bring me into iowa with the des moines register numbers. >> we've got our very first nbc news "des moines register" poll of the iowa caucuses. it's conducted by anne, one of the highly considered polls. they have been considered the gold standard. we have been kind of starved of quality iowa polling for a while. here is a very high quality, brand new iowa poll we just released today. the bottom line, here is voters' first choice, republican voters first choice in the caucuses, and you do see a wide lead for the former president. donald trump leading his nearest competitor, ron desantis, by a better than two to one margin, 42-19%. nobody else in double digits, you see tim scott there at 9%, everybody else, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2,

steve kornacki has the numbers. >> well it is the first in the nation caucus almost exactly five monthshey will be casting those first ballots in the iowa republican caucuses. here it is. we have our first look in the brand-new nbc news des moines register poll here. going to be seeing a few of these before the caucuses on what the state of play is in iowa. and it is a big lead for the former president. donald trump at 42% in our poll. more than doubling of his nearest rival and he is not that near. rhonda santas that is a 23 point lead for donald trump overwrought of santa's. none of the other republican candidates out of single digits. tim scott from south carolina on the closest. he is running at 9%. so a big lead for donald trump and of course donald trump for the last few months all sorts of stories of his legal issues. several indictments. the fourth indictment came down last week here. you see among island republicans about two thirds saying no that they do not think trump has committed serious crimes. so those indictments have not really been dragging him down. in fact a portion

thank you so much, steve kornacki. us to discuss this and more is former republican congressman from florida, carlos curbelo who is actually at the airport in milwaukee where the debate is this coming wednesday. getting an early start on the rush to get to that city. we'll talk to you in a second. also with us, former campaign manager for the 2012 obama re-election campaign, jim messina. good to see both of you here. let me start with both of you, trump didn't win iowa caucuses in 2016, yet today he's facing 91 criminal charges and iowa voters are behind him, more so than any candidate since george bush in 2000 including the vast majority of evangelical christians. why do you think that is? >> that's right, ana. when they arrive for this debate, they and their campaigns know this is still a race for second place. donald trump made that clear the other day when he published his statement about why he wasn't coming to the debate. he said this is a race for second place and he's not going to waste his time coming here. lo

>>> seth: i want to thank my guests florence pugh, steve kornacki, everybody. benny greb and the 8g band stay safe. get vaccinated get boosted. we love you. [ cheers and applause ♪ >>> right now at 11:00, breaking news out of southern california. a mass shooting at a popular biker bar in orange county. tonight, four people are dead, including that gunman. paramedics rushing six others to the hospital, five of them with gunshot wounds. the chaos playing out at cook's corner in the foothills of east irvine. >> i got flagged down by a car that was blocking the road. thought they were having motor troubles. jumped off the bike. asked them, is everything okay? and the lady is freaking out. they're shooting at the bar, don't go there. and i heard the shots. he walked to a gray pickup truck and opened the passenger door. i saw a couple people walking out. two bodies drop. i call 911. >> this is what we know. three law enforcement sources familiar with the investigation tell nbc news, the man believed to have carried out the shooting is a former lawsuit who was targeti

steve kornacki will be at the big board to break down new polling out of iowa. >>> also ahead, we'lls southern california, "morning joe" just moments away. ay (christina) with verizon business unlimited, i get 5g, truly unlimited data, and unlimited hotspot data. so, no matter what, i'm running this kitchen. (vo) make the switch. it's your business. it's your verizon. and we're done. hm, what about these? ♪ looks right. [sfx: spilling sound] nooo... nooo... nooo... quick, the quicker picker upper! bounty absorbs spills like a sponge. and bounty is 2x more absorbent so you can use less and get the job done with one. this works. kind of. bounty, the quicker picker upper. to help prevent bleeding gums. try saying 'hello gumwash' with parodontax active gum health. it kills 99% plaque bacteria. and forms an antibacterial shield. try parodontax active gum health mouthwash. diabetes can serve up a lot of questions, like, "what is your glucose?" and "can you have more carbs?" before you decide... with the freestyle libre 2 system know your glucose level and where it's headed. no fingersticks

the legend at the map, steve kornacki. >> go bing bong. >> bing bong. >> that's it. >> here we are truckingou are great, but i would be more happy if this was our viewer. >> we're in brooklyn. >> it's friday it's -- >> time to fall back. >> you can find me on tiktok at ari melber or right here on msnbc. "the reidout" with joy reid is up next. . >>> tonight on "the reidout" -- >> i was so offended the minute i read page one of trump's filing when they were asking for that absurd trial date of april 2026, because on page one, they cite powell versing alabama. the powell case involved nine african american teenagers ages 12 to 19, who were accused of sexually assaulting a white woman. they were arrested,

for the numbers let's bring in steve kornacki at the big board with the latest. t do you got? >> this is an exciting new adventure with nbc we partnered with the des moines register, this is the absolute gold standard poll of the first in the nation caucus state, we've seen all of these numbers about national polling in this republican race but it all starts in iowa, the theory of every candidate trying to beat donald trump is that they can win iowa, get traction in iowa and take that slingshot. the iowa polling we have been missing all summer high-quality iowa polling, right now we've got the gold standard unveiled to you. these are the numbers here, this is the bottom line in terms of asking likely caucus goers who they would support right now, trump is well ahead, 2 to 1, 42%. ron desantis the only challenger in double digits at 19%. tim scott just under 10%. nikki haley, mike pence, chris christie, down to will hurd. trump with that sizable lead here in iowa. looking inside the numbers, evangelical voters in particular, in 2016, republican donald trump didn't

legend at the map, steve kornacki. >> go bing bong. >> bing bong. >> that's it. >> here we are trucking> adrenaline pumping. >> you've been great. but i would be more happy if this was our view right here. >> we're in brooklyn. >> yeah, we're in brooklyn. >> if it's friday, you know it's -- hey. >> so you can always find me at arimelber.com. that's one way i've connected with and heard from a lot of you. the last two folks came up to me. they started the conversation. and i did what reporters do, i put them on video. thanks for being here. i'll see you tomorrow. "the reidout" with joy reid starts right now. ♪♪ >>> tonight on "the reidout" -- >> if we're mourning anything this morning, it is the loss of democracy. >> under this tyranny, elected officials can be removed simply for political purposes and by a whim of the governor. and no matter how you feel about me, you should not be okay with that. >> monique was elected state attorney by the voters of florida. now ron desantis is using his

from nbc news and msnbc, political correspondent steve kornacki an all-new "closer look.