market pricing, as kashkari was saying, is not very much further from here.he fed wants that two-way risk to still be in the market. it wants perception that rates could go higher if they have to to startling down inflation expectations. kriti: it really isn't a surprise that neel kashkari is asking for one more rate hike, when the consensus is wanting to pause for a little longer. that will be something we digest. paul dobson, executive editor for asian markets, we thank you. there is more markets coverage and geopolitics ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪ kriti: welcome back to "daybreak: europe". we are monitoring be inflation story and the monetary policy story which hinges on the commodity story which brings me to the oil market. we talked about $100 a barrel on the horizon. something goldman sachs is saying will be the 12-month forward price, but brent retreating further from the $95 it hit in the middle of last week. in the u.s., nymex crude trading below that $90 mark. not a ton of momentum in either direction, down 0.4%, but pricing is on the minds of not j

and neel kashkari will join us.ust charges, as the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now. >>> good morning. welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm joe kernen, along with becky quick and andrew ross sorkin. we want to get to neel in a second. first we'll look at the markets, which are up a little bit, we bounding a little from yesterday and maybe more importantly for our next interview, we'll take a quick look at treasuries, which 10-year has been at levels we haven't seen in quite a while. it is above 4 1/2%. these are rates that if you've lived long enough, it doesn't seem very high. compared to where we were on a relative basis and we're over 5% on the 2-year. >> cnbc's alpha conference kicks off tomorrow. we asked our panel for their outlook and strategies for the second quarter and beyond. here's what they said about the fed and interest rates. nearly 80% feel rates should be held steady. nearly 20% see a hike again soon and a small percentage want to see a rate cut. and nearly 60% feel that inflat

neil kashkari, he spells his name on. good to see you again. i will let it go. let me ask you.out the fed not being done. >> we raised interest rates by 5.25%. i would have thought that would slam the brakes on the economy but the economy has proven resilient, john market remain strong, that's good news, consumers continue to spend. that makes me wonder have we done enough to bring inflation all the way back. i have penciled in my own forecast, one more rate increases this fall and we sit there while inflation -- neil: likely 1/4 point. >> we will have to see the data but i'm open to the possibility the economy is more resilient than we realize and we might go higher than that. neil: do you factor in or should the fed factor in preemptive strikes, the generous labor packages including the united auto workers which could call for a minimum of 20% or more, pretty big payout. >> a couple things. american workers the last 30 or 40 years have seen their shared pocket declining. probably want to see american workers enjoy higher wages in a way that is consistent with 2% inflation. i

peter, first of all, how big is neel kashkari is family. i have is buying a 21 pack lasagna?y man have? it is refreshing to hear him talk about this stuff. food prices are going through the roof. still at the fed meeting last week, never came up, they brush it aside. i always feel like fed policy is sort of disconnected from real life, real american life. >> there really is. there is something sort of suspicious how the main number they look at is core inflation which excludes the two things that americans care about, which is grocery bills and fueling up your car. when i right now bet on inflation i always talk about groceries and gas prices and those are the two things they don't normally care about. it is nice neil is talking about list lasagna. charles: so you wrote something really intriguing to me, that the main street media is creating this sort of perfect storm and providing cover for these fed mistakes. could you also add fiscal mistakes in there as well? >> absolutely and you know that was from a article from the "wall street journal," just came out a couple days ag

minneapolis fed president neel kashkari is making comments.lso chiming in from india. we'll break down the strategy with longtime fed watcher kim grant next and "squawk box" is streaming live every weekday morning exclusively on peacock as part of the morning news live collection join us every morning on the headlines, no matter whether you're at home or tonhe go, head to peacock.com/morningnews for more information on how you can start streaming. we'll be right back. >>> welcome back to "squawk box" on cnbc. the futures are now back down close to the lows, down almost 150 on the dow, nasdaq, and s&p pitching in, trading lower as well in the pre-market jpmorgan ceo jamie dimon speaking to cnbc in india overnight. here's what he said about whether the fed will raise rates ag again. >> i think it's more likely than not. but i think people should be prepared for higher oil and gas prices, higher rates, as a matter of just being prepared. you and i can guess what it will be, but i don't know, you don't know, no one knows i think the odds are highe

. >>> and neel kashkaris into they moves. kashkari told the event attendees if the economy is much stronger than we realized on the margin, that would tell the me rates would have to go higher and then be held higher for longer to cool things off. wall street is currently pricing in at least one more rate hike before year's end. frank. >> same indication from the fed. silvana, see you later on. >>> we have more to come here on "worldwide exchange," including the one word that investors have to know today. first, my next dpguest says nott underestimate the great american consumer john stoltz is next. >>> later in the show, jeff bezos reunites with an old friend at blue origin. we have a very busy hour still ahead when "worldwide exchange" returns. stay with us ♪ maybe i should have called you first but i was ♪ ♪ trying to get to you ♪ ♪ i was dreaming while i drove the long straight road ahead ♪ ♪ i drove all night to get to you ♪ the distance is nothing when home means everything. >>> welcome back to "worldwide exchange." the

neel kashkari is in studio with us. >>> brand new this morning, it is official, hollywood writers areow allowed to return to work. the strike officially ended as of 3:00 a.m. eastern this morning after the board of the writers guild of america unanimously voted to give its members permission to go back to work. but union members could still refuse to ratify the tentative agreement when they vote next week. natasha chen is joining us live. and we're starting to get more insight into the deal itself. what is the latest state of play as writers can now go back to work? >> reporter: the writers i've spoken to are very excited about this. there is a general mood of optimism here. they feel like there is something in the deal for everyone. so let's walk through what is in it. basically we start with better pay. 5% more this year followed by 4% next year. 3.5% the year after that. better benefits including a slight increase in health fund contribution and writers on the same script no longer have to share the cap on the pension and health benefit contribution. this was a big sticking point.

he likes the skepticism all kashkari and the reaction to that.ry cool. torsten notes the cost of money is beginning to affect venture capital. it is a huge deal, permeation of the real yield. a whole new world. lisa: we were talking about instacart coming up with ipo's, a fraction of what they were valued out -- not a year or two ago. it has gone down. tom: 1.0 6 -- 106.00. swiss franc does not give meat loaf and i do not get stronger swiss franc off that, which is of no. i've got the yen, noted up at the 150, giving pause worldwide. we will do under surveillance quickly because we have an important global wall street guest. lisa: president biden joining the picket line for their striking uaw workers. tensions between union workers and forte have been ramping up because the company is halting production on a $3.5 billion battery plant in michigan, with scrutiny coming based on chinese backing for the factory. this keeps percolating out. the most interesting aspect of the story is how it really supports wages going up and gets in the crosshairs of

speeches on tap including lisa cook and susan collins and san francisco president mary daly and neel kashkarie for serious progress and talks with the big three automakers and apple's iphone 15 officially goes on sale today. steve kovach live in new york with the latest. and we have the s&p and nasdaq with the biggest weekly decline since march. our next guest says more pressure is likely ahead. there is potential for markets to pull out of the skid. sam stovall at cfra is here with us. great to have you here. give us a sense how we pull out of the skid with rate pressure and the dollar right now moving 2% higher over the last month with technical indicators showing the golden cross that we could see a higher move higher for the dollar. >> frank, you have to have additional concerns added to the equation for share prices to decline. as of last night, s&p moved into a pullback which is a decline of 5% to 10%. i target the 4,200 on the s&p as the bouncing point because it represents the level and it was always the high in march of this year. it represents a floor that might be able to be optimi

. >>> this morning on "squawk box," minneapolis fed president kashkari said he doesn't thing that they can can force a rate hike on their own. i heard it was $93, but i didn't believe it. pippa, why now? >> we finally have reached the november 2022 level that was acting as a distance, now the highest point back to august 2022. this is all about inventories out of curbing, oklahoma, the key energy storage hub, and delivery for the contract. so we got data from eia that shows inventories are now at the lowest there in 14 months, just around 22 million barrels. that's important. once they get until 20 million, we start to approach tank bottoms. that's when we get quality issues, and pressures with the oil. think about water sediment going to the bottom. now there's more than a $10 spread between the december '23 and december '24 contract. so basically, combined with higher rates s. why would you want to store anything? all about oil -- >> you sell it, right? >> exactly. there is a $10 spread. that's a widely watch spread. nobody wants to store, so that is would we're seeing lower inventor

neel kashkari cold is this week. >> don't take on more debt right now. a big thing. credit card interest rates have gone up quite a bit. bigger balances more and more painful to service those debts. to the extent possible have longer-term, if you have loans, longer-term home loans are better. >> do you agree with all that, for people watching at home? >> oh, sure. interest rates are really high. don't want to borough money particularly on a credit card, paying over 20%. that's a tough financial treadmitt to get on. just don't do that. of course, the other thing is, you need to be a good shopper. i think, you know, back before inflation took off a couple three years ago got into the habit of shopping, being careful about it because there was no inflation. wasn't an issue. now with inflation much higher we have to be much more judicious. businesses pay attention to that. if people stop shopping because prices are too high they stop raising prices. i think it's really important we become good consumers again. >> interesting. our behavior can affect -- >> and people had

consumer kept going the consumer slowed down you have to have more risk to push the other way >> neel kashkariays the fed may have to rate rates to tame inflation and his comments come a week after the fmoc, of which he is a voting member, did not raise rates, but did signal they would move rates higher this year >> one thing that makes me cautious that we may not be as restick tstrictive as we think, out performing and the sectors that are most sensitive to interest rate hikes, autos and housing, indicated bottoming and starting to show some recovery that makes me cautious we may not be as restrictive as we otherwise would think. >>> open a.i. is in talks with softbank's mayo son to launch the iphone of artificial intelligence this is all according to the ft which says soft dlbank would brg in $1 billion of funding developers are aiming to create a natural and intuitive way for users to interact with a.i i saw this story, joumanna, on the way in to the show it caught my attention because it feels like in the tech space everybody is wondering the next major consumer device. it is not clear. we

fed's kashkari put the chance of the u.s. of a soft landing at 60%. hold for long enough to bring inflation back to 2%. also, on a programming note, our u.s. colleagues will be speaking with the man himself later today. you can catch that interview at 2:00 p.m. cst. >>> it has been a challenging couple of days for all classes, the s&p down 4% in the last week, it feels like there has been a bit of a positioning reckoning for the market, is all of this do you think in response what we learned out of the fed last week? >> well, i think there's a few things going on, i mean, certainly, the fed was at the hawkish end. if you look at what's going on with fixed income, we're having a pretty rare moment of late cycle deepening. partly the fed being done, part of the fed telling you they're going to be done. boj's policy shifts. this late cycle is starting to create that rick aversion in market. >> real yields are moving higher, not led by inflation or inflation expectations, those have been stable, but it's real yields pushing up nominal yields because it te

jon: one person watching the situation is neel kashkari who said earlier today we might have to do lessmonetary policy to bring inflation back down to 2% because the government shutdown or thought oestreich may slow the economy for us. david wilcox is director of u.s. economic research at bloomberg economics. he put together a really helpful breakdown of some of the key areas to focus on right now. let's start with the economic assessment of what happens in the case of a shutdown. what do we need to know? guest: the playbook is pretty apparent. a general rule of thumb is that for each week that a shutdown persists, gdp will be nicked .2%. for example, a five week shutdown will take one percentage off the growth of real gdp in the fourth quarter then growth would be bumped up by a percentage point in the first quarter restoring the level of gdp roughly speaking to its non-shut down trajectory. matt: what are the permanent effects? what leaves a mark because i don't think it matters that much if we lose a percentage of gdp one month and gain it back the next. guest: from a macroeconomic p

and mary daley and neil kashkari are speaking right now.ve liesman has those headlines. >> kelly, just some headlines from the san francisco fed president, who is saying inflation has been too high for too long, repeating a mantra out there from several fed officials. he says holding rates steady will provide more time for the fed with which to make better policy. inflation she does say is coming down. the labor market is adjusting, rather than abruptly. she is not ready to declare victory until she is confident that inflation is headed back down to target, but adds patience is a prudent strategy. let me recap. susan collins, a bit more hawkish, expecting rates to stay higher longer, and she goes on to say that further tightening is not off the table. the fed will stay the course, she says, to achieve the fed's mandate. at a recent fed policy statement, saying it should not be take on the mean the fed has reached the peak funds rate just yet. and real quickly, on fed governor bowman, she expects it will be appropriate to raise rates going f

we'll show you what's moving in early trading, and we'll speak to minneapolis fed president neel kashkarisome procedural moves that finally got through, a small victory, but probably going nowhere. there was some movement in the senate. we'll take you there live. >>> plus, target shutting down nine stores in major cities citing retail theft and organized crime. details straight ahead. it's wednesday, september 27th, 2023, and "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ >>> good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box" right here on cnbc. we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. okay. the good news is we got through yesterday. it was a bit of a route in the markets yesterday. if you want to look at the u.s. equity futures this morning, you're going to see right now some green arrows, as joe mentioned. dow futures up about 57 points. it comes after a down day for the markets. the dow was down by about 388 points. that was its worst day since march but on a percentage basis it was the best performer or the

. >> what about if they just stay where they are for longer than we anticipate as kashkari n indicated>> i'm saying the long end. >> we're back to the ten-year or the 20. >> i like the 20 because in the old days, the 20 was king. how did the ten-year become king. >> it is the benchmark yield. i tried to get a mortgage. i got a mortgage for 308. now it's 8. a year ago, year and a half. >> is that a jumbo. >> it was from a credit union. those credit unions. >> so when do we stop having this conversation, then. >> when i say so! and when does the market move on? >> not this conversation, the larger conversation. >> no, because i feel like we're headed for the end of the inverted yield curve: everybody claims it would it would be horrible with the inverted yield curve. i actually am stuck with the facts, and the facts indicate that there's still a lot of good out there, it's just that you have to pick and choose. retail tougher, industrial not bad, even though the stocks aren't out. look, obviously youth is bad. some of the drug stocks good, health care. i'm just trying to present it as in

. >> on friday kashkari, minneapolis fed president, was talking about how surprised he was that interest points hasn't slammed the brakes on consumer spending at all. he thought potentially it would. you mentioned the resumption of student loan payments. can anything slow down the u.s. consumer? is that a concern for you? >> well, the excess savings, household savings, which the pandemic caused, which at their height or peak were a trillion, are now down below about $500 billion and falling. as to those excess savings fall, that will weigh negatively on consumer spending and i just think this current quarter, the one beginning october 1st, next weekend, is going to be a weaker one for the reasons we discussed already here and i think it will be weaker also for the consumer. interest rates have both a mathematical impact, if i can put it that way, and a psychological impact. i think together with just affordability questions for consumers, because prices may be coming down some, but grocery prices and others remain high, so i think we may be seeing some weakening of consumer spending, but

let's say neel kashkari is right, one hike. then you have no more inverted yield curve.he problem is that -- when i go over stocks, locking in a 4.8 is considered to be really pretty terrific. >> it's not bad. >> it's not bad. >> 4.5 for ten years is not terrible either. >> people are looking at it. go back 16, 17 years, wow, this is a great rate. i think that's really what we're up against with stocks i can talk about what mike said yesterday, the ceo of chevron, talk about what jamie dimon is saying and get ready for 6 they haven't been able to slow the economy down they're selling a lot of bonds the fed is dumping its bonds i'm not saying we're dinosaurs we've had tremendous periods where stocks are gone up and they're 6, 7% on the 20-year david, let's face it we can sit here all day and say i really like the 20-year here, taking it to a buy, and no one would disagree with us. >> listen, the ten-year has come into a lot of conversations. yesterday we breached the 4.5% level. it seemed to get a lot of attention. i don't know why 4.49 doesn't, but 4.50 does. your point

we got cook on the table and we'll get kashkari and daley later on. >> these guys are thoughtful peoplebut i would say that i'm going to make a point. i thought yesterday was one of the worst days i've seen in the stock market in long time. it was just -- everything -- anything that was positive just went down less than things that were negative. and the market was cascading, and the give-up that i saw between three and four was extraordinary, and there were people, particularly, say, in the real estate investment trust who said, i got to get out of this so badly. the only utility -- they recently raised the dividend for more than 50 consecutive years. the give-up yesterday was as if something huge was going to happen. >> oh, yeah. the goldman desk note this morning, "floodgates opened yesterday at a substantial uptick in gross activity, particularly in tmt." >> isn't that interesting? and by the way, in the end, one of the amazing things, all those deals that were really kind of cascading down made a little comeback. >> oh, really? >> yeah. >> instacart and arm and clavio. >> he calls

. >> great chat this morning about fed officials who flip, so to speak, last couple of years, kashkari good examples. would mester be the most interesting flip? >> he's already moderated her views here, not so certain she needs to hike, ready to -- saying that you have to manage between upside and downside risk. that's new. that's a less hawkish thing for her to say, because you remember, carl, you have been living through this just like i have. all the risks were to the upside for inflation. mester suggesting that's not true anymore. >> steve liesman, thanks. we'll talk in a little while. busy day on a summer friday. >>> before ism at the top of the hour, we do have manufacturing data out. couple of moments ago. back to rick santelli. hey, rick. >> yes, these are the pmis from s&p. we'll get the pmis from ism shortly. s&p global, manufacturing pmi, final read replaces 47 with 47.9. that does represent officially the fourth number below 50 in a row. 47.9 is only just as strong as it was at 49 in july, and look at that chart of ten-year note yields. zooming around 4.15% now, and the rea

me apple's fed president neel kashkari at 6:00 p.m. today. tomorrow we have michelle bowman. fed governor lisa cook, chicago fed president austin goolsby. on friday the fed's john williams. whether they lead into this idea that they are done, because it seems like that in the literature, ellen zentner saying they are done. earnings, this is a big deal off mike wilson's comments. retail earnings in particular. tuesday cosco. wednesday h&m and micron. thursday is nike. curious to see whether these are bespoke stories or whether we get a theme. on the economic data front you talk about home prices and the mortgage rates. home price data as well as new-home sales. we get that tomorrow. jobless claims thursday. personal income and core pce on friday. the consumer. how much did they continue to surprise to the upside? tom: is not a sleepy week into october. on the des screen, a plethora of data. jp morgan october 13. they also have december, when the bruins pull ahead. joining us is luke kawa. what did you write about this weekend? what is the distinction you see in the cacophony o

san francisco fed president mary daly and minneapolis fed president neel kashkari speaking at 145.i. how big is that differential? how big of a surprise doesn't have to be to cause further dollar strength? at 10 a.m. we will hear from the uaw. they are having a facebook live event in detroit. tom: does that for the public or the uaw people? jonathan: or the automakers? lisa: or both? the idea is they are taking control of the message and a surprise tactic. it raises the point of why is this time so different? why has the tactic been so different at a time when auto manufacturers say we are stepping to the table and he said we have not gotten our fair share during the financial crisis, we've not gotten our fair share in the decade that followed. we have to get ahead of this before all of the technology changes. tom: fed speakers, what is the difference when they speak now since jackson hole? the answer is real rates have moved. up to 2.11% on real rates. that affects every single person listening and watching. jonathan: are we significantly restrictive? dan morris from bnp paribas j