aaron david, senior fellow at the - david, senior fellow at the carnegie endowment for international peaceto have your perspective. thank you for taking the time.— us secretary of state antony blinken is traveling to south korea this weekend amid a political crisis in seoul. the us state department says mr blinken will meet senior south korean government officials to discuss ways to promote a free and prosperous indo—pacific region. he will also travel to japan before heading to france to discuss challenges in europe and the middle east. mass demonstrations have taken place in seoul, both in support of and against the suspended president, yoon suk yeol. investigators have sought to bring yoon in for questioning over his failed bid to impose martial law, but have so far been repelled by his supporters and security officers. the warrant is set to expire monday. earlier i spoke to sung—yoon lee, a globalfellow at the woodrow wilson international center for scholars. it is an extraordinary situation. in the post— 20th century world order, and importantly, in the post—world war ii order, no sit

carnegie. i now work for the carnegie endowment for international peace. you saw a political movement, mostly of the medical -- middle class in both political parties that said we will have good government. we need less corruption. it was spurred by a lot of business people that realize you were getting a two-tiered system of business with autocrats or plutocrats at the top and everybody else trying to run an honest business. you had a lot of women getting involved. that kind of movement was really important. when we have seen it work in highly polarized democracies we tend to see a coming together. look at what just happened in poland against the so-called law and justice party where the left and right came together or france where you just had a coalition from the quite far left and center right come together to hold the line against a more authoritarian party. david: has any of those bin movements driven by a desire to overcome the contempt? that they are saying, we are just sick and tired of the hatred we are hearing spewed from the mouths of our polit

our people from the gaza strip". a future palestinian state. and a fellow at the carnegie endowment for international peacets from of these comments from trump? of these comments from trum - ? ., president trump? t5725??? . hand, president president trump? t5725? - hand, president trump is gaza has been z decimated 7 7 n decimated by 7 7 7 n decimated byan 7 7 n fidelsraeliibyan 7 7 indiscriminate israeli bombing campaign and destruction. campaign and mass destruction. so, that is his so, that is correct. his assessment of situation on assessment of the situation on ground is correct. what is thefground is correct. what is problematic, what is immoral is y _ his illegal and immoral is what his solution is, is to solution is, which is to relocate, also known as ethnic z— of the palestinians cleansing, of the palestinians of gaza. we have to out of gaza. we have to remember palestinians in gaza, most of are already israel. 7 7 7 israel. they are present—day israel. they are the descendants of the refugees from that original mass =-= displacement. so it is very problematic he say displacement. so it is very pr

joining me now is the senior fellow at the carnegie endowment for international peace, aaron david miller much for being with us. it got off to a rocky start this morning. the ceasefire was delayed three hours. but we have had three israeli hostages released. and in the last hour, 90 palestinian prisoners freed from a west bank prison. as confidence grows and people start to have more faith in the process, do you think?- process, do you think? that's the hepe- _ process, do you think? that's the hepe- day _ process, do you think? that's the hope. day by _ process, do you think? that's the hope. day by day - process, do you think? that's the hope. day by day and - process, do you think? that's. the hope. day by day and week by week. i think we have to have extremely realistic expectations. this is not an agreement between the us and britain. it's not even an agreement to somehow finally reconcile adversaries. israel and egypt, israel and jordan. even between israel and the palestinian authority. this is an agreement between combatants who pledged to one another�*s destruction. there are no

aaron david miller is a senior fellow at the carnegie endowment for international peace, i asked him njamin netanyahu used in his speech, reserving the right to "resume war" and calling the first phase a temporary "ceasefire". he claims he has assurances, both from the biden administration and from the trump administration, that certainly if hamas violates the agreement, the israelis have a freer hand. he also referred to the israeli, quote unquote, security demands are not met. that's unclear. we've heard something ofa similarvein from some of the incoming officials in the trump administration. we haven't seen much or heard much from the president—elect on this. and it gets to a core point, which is this — donald trump owns this agreement now. chances are, if it doesn't begin implementation tomorrow, it will begin on monday and he will be the president. it's either going to crater on his watch or it's going to succeed. and if he is at all interested in the regional aspirations for getting the israelis and the saudis together, he's going to have to make this work and then some. so it

i've been speaking with aaron david miller, a senior fellow at the carnegie endowment for international peaceadviser who helped formulate us policy on the arab—israeli peace process. so, approval depending, the weapons sale is coming just a fortnight before president biden leaves office. how do you think his support for israel will factor into his legacy? i mean, it'll be mixed. on one hand, the administration will claim, perhaps rightly, that support for the israelis has created a situation where the so—called ring of fire — iran's proxies, hamas, hezbollah, and iran itself, frankly — right now are weaker than ever. and the administration has already made it clear that they believe that part of the reason the israelis have had so much success militarily is a consequence of that support. 0n the other hand, the president's legacy in gaza is going to be one that's increasingly fraught, and people are going to continue to ask questions why the president couldn't have used the extraordinary relationship and bond and support that he's mustered and given to israel to basically change the policies o

questioner: michael nelson, carnegie endowment for international peace just next door. i focus a lot on international digital policies. some of the the biggest channels in dijal policy involve coordinating with other country, particularly brussels. do you have any lessons you have learned about how to deal with a place like the european commission where you have so many different agendas and so many different languages, so that often they think they have a consensus that you can challenge and negotiate with about but they don't. we've seen over and over where they require companies to do three different things which are mutually incompatible. for instance, protect personal privacy but make sure our police have all the data they need if something happens. so any wisdom on dealing with the european union? comm'r khan: i've really enjoyed getting to engage with international counterparts across the world. i think especially when it comes to digital markets this is an opportunity -- this has been a moment of kind of shared learning. different jurisdictions are all grappling

he's also a senior fellow at the carnegie endowment for international peace. aaron, thanks so much for being here with us. there's there's a lot to get to just within jeremy's piece alone. i kind of want to go back to the beginning, which is where we're seeing these four female soldiers in this last act. hamas makes them go through this whole propaganda moment where they're taking up on this stage and that whole thing, and then and then they release that video about it later. i don't know if aaron can hear me or not, but, um, what did you think of that? aaron, if you can hear me. >> um. >> look, i. >> think, you. >> know. >> understand why it was in hamas's interest to cut this deal. you saw the pictures of hamas fighters. masked and. unmasked on the streets of gaza, assuming control, they'll control the distribution of humanitarian assistance. they gave goodie bags to the previous three israeli, um, female civilians who were released last weekend. you saw the the show on the stage. so for. hamas right now, having been beaten down by the israelis as an organize

sue met michael nelson, carnegie endowment for international peace historic and i focus a lot in internationals biggest challenges in a digital policy involved coordinating with other countries. ... place like the european commission where you have so many different agendas and so many different languages, so that often they think they have a consensus that you can challenge and negotiate with about but they don't. we've seen over and over where they require where they are requiring companies to do three different things. for instance, protect personal privacy but make sure our police can have all the data they need something happens. any wisdom on dealing with the european union? >> i enjoyed engage with international counterparts across the world. especially when it comes to digital markets. this is been a moment of shared learning. it's grappling with some challenges. think about privacy continent wide privacy regulation but some don't have those. especially as we thought about mergers and acquisitions there have been shared learning. i have gotten to enjoy engagements with counterparts acr

he's a senior fellow with the carnegie endowment for international peace. ron has been helping us understand this situation not just since day one. we've been talking for years, and certainly in the two years of disquiet in israel that that preceded october 7th. aaron, it's whether you're where danielle is in the west bank or you're you're looking at hostage square. the expressions don't capture the sentiment on the ground in israel or in the occupied territories. there is elation to some. there is joy to some, there's remarkable sadness. to some, there's frustration that this deal looks very much like a deal that could have happened in may before a whole lot more people died. but overwhelmingly, there seems to be some sense of hope that maybe the next thing can happen. now, what's your sense of it? >> you know, i think what what these scenes reflect, and thanks for bringing it to your viewers is the is the essential human dimension, the tragedy, the sense of trauma, the loss that israelis and palestinians have experienced over the course of the last 15 mont

former state department middle east negotiator, he's now a senior fellow at the carnegie endowment for international peace. always great to see you. so i mean, what are your thoughts now as this become a fragile deal? >> well, the good news is that this offers a some hope in a 15 months of of abject horrors in which israelis and palestinians have subjected one another to incredible trauma, loss and suffering. the problem, fredricka, is that you've got an indirect negotiation between two parties who fundamentally not only don't trust one another, but who are fundamentally committed to one another's destruction. so it is not surprising that you have a degree of brinkmanship. um, if hamas hamas is obligated to turn over the names of three living females, not military. um um soldiers, not soldiers, but civilians. and that hasn't been done. i can't imagine that won't be done. uh, in enough time to to allow this deal to proceed. but it's emblematic, i think, of the the fundamental obstacles that stand in its way. the prime minister of israel is not happy about this agreement. among the 95 palestinians that are

aaron david miller is a former arab-israeli negotiator and senior fellow at the carnegie endowment for international peace. daniele. the announcement of this deal was met with jubilation and some cautious optimism as well, depending on whether you're in gaza or israel. but the truce is still not official. so what do we know about the hold up? >> of the story? well, you're right, it's absolutely fragile. this truce and what we know well, what one israeli official said was that there were a number of issues. among them were the identities, the names of the palestinians to be released. now, of course, in exchange for the hostages who will be returning to israel, israel will be releasing a number of palestinian prisoners, hundreds of them, and some of them are high profile palestinian convicts, murderers, people israel describes as having blood on their hands. so according to israelis, that was one of the issues. now, what we know and what you mentioned just a few seconds ago, is that this security cabinet is now going to go ahead tomorrow. it was scheduled for today, going to head for tomorrow, and then the

. >> joining us now, carnegie endowment for international peace, senior fellow and former arab-israelion david miller. all right. we've we've had this conversation before. does this time feel different? >> katie. it does. >> i mean, the signs and the signals i think are strong. >> the palestinians are sending their experts who deal with release of palestinian prisoners to doha. the israelis are sending signals to the ministries that deal with the absorption of hostages. so it feels as if it seems as if that this is the moment for an agreement. now what? it does not seem to me to be an agreement for is what i would call all for all. all of the remaining hostages freed according to a specific timetable in return for termination of the war and a permanent cessation of hostilities. that may be the language used in this agreement, but i think it's there's a long way to go before we see the end of the war in gaza. but for the 34 hostages, the israelis judge mostly are living in the initial humanitarian release, six week ceasefire, large numbers of palestinian prisoners, some of whom convicte

bring in former israeli consul general in new york, ambassador alon pinkas, also carnegie endowment for international peace senior fellow and former state department arab-israeli negotiator aaron david miller. alon, first to you, your reaction to this news? >> well, you know, any deal is a good deal, even if it's precarious, even if it's tenuous, even if it hinges on the durability or sustainability of a ceasefire, that is going to be very hard to enforce given the topography, given what remains of gaza, given hamas's lack of any command structure, and so any skirmish would constitute a violation of the ceasefire. >> all that said and done, katie, it's an agreement that should have been signed in march and again in may. >> i know you've said ayman said this and you said this in the last 15 minutes. this agreement is identical to the agreement that president biden presented in may and went to the extent of saying that this was presented to him by no other than mr. netanyahu, who 48 hours or 72 hours rather later reneged on it, as he habitually does when he manipulates political interlocutors as an agreement

joining us now senior fellow at the carnegie endowment for international peace and former arab-israelitor at the state department, aaron david miller, what's the likelihood that palestinians in gaza are going to look around and say, this is just too much of a mess for me. i'm going to go to jordan. i'm going to go to egypt. >> slim to none. katie and. >> i think slim already. >> left town. look. the president, having been president for four. >> years. >> truly understands the sensitivities and sensibilities, particularly of the. >> jordanians and. >> the egyptians, for. absorbing anything. >> that resembles a. >> permanent basis or even temporary, because temporary in the middle east. >> has. >> a has. >> a. >> way of becoming permanent. as we know. >> he knows. >> that egypt. >> and. >> jordan are not going to accept large numbers. >> of. >> palestinians on a permanent basis. >> he also knows that palestinians. however bleak their circumstances. >> and they are. >> incredibly grim. even with the cease fire, the prospects of reliable humanitarian assistance and reconstruction aid. it's

joining us now, senior fellow at the carnegie endowment for international peace and former arab-israeliat the state department, aaron david miller. i'm curious about this phased deal and why it has to be phased, because it seems like, given the suffering that gazans are experiencing, and given what is likely to be told by the hostages that are released of the horrors that they experienced, it feels like it is a very tenuous deal and that anything can derail it at any moment. why not get it done all at once? >> well, thanks for having me, katie. >> it is the israeli-palestinian conflict, after all, and based on the last 20 years of participating in negotiations, even longer phases are a function of mistrust, fundamental suspicion, and on the israeli side, to be sure, israeli politics. so the notion of an all for all release, all of the hostages, the 65 half of whom the israelis believe are probably no longer alive, primarily soldiers that hamas will retain at the end of this six week period in exchange for large numbers. and there will be large numbers of palestinian prisoners released,

i'm going to bring in sahar hassan, a fellow with the middle east program at the carnegie endowment for international peaceshe joins us now from washington. thank you so much for being with me. i mean, how are you feeling about all of this? >> look, we have to be hopeful. this has been a very long road to get here. i mean, it's been 15 months of just every day bombardment of gaza. every day, civilians being killed, mainly women and children. so there's a lot riding on the ceasefire, holding yet. >> i mean, in netanyahu's televised speech, just hours before the ceasefire was due to start, he stressed that the ceasefire was, quote, temporary and israel reserved the right to resume resume strikes in gaza. that, to me, felt like a bit of a backpedal. i just wonder, what are your thoughts on all of that and what could be about to happen? >> right. i mean, i think he's speaking to his ultra right wing flank. there that has threatened to pull out from the government. and, you know, dissolve the coalition. possibly. so he's trying to shore up confidence with that right wing and assure them that, you know, this is

let's speak to aaron david miller, a seniorfellow at the carnegie endowment for international peace. g with us. what did you make of the language from the statement for the israeli prime minister, reserving the right to go back to the war and stating it as a temporary ceasefire. i to the war and stating it as a temporary ceasefire.- temporary ceasefire. i would not meet — temporary ceasefire. i would not expect anything - temporary ceasefire. i would not expect anything else. . temporary ceasefire. i would not expect anything else. ifl not expect anything else. if hamas violates the agreement, he has assurances from the trump and biden administration is that israel has a free hand. we have heard something of a similar vein from incoming officials in the cut administration, we have not seen much or heard much from the president—elect on this. it gets to a point where donald trump owns this agreement now, chances are if it does not begin tomorrow, it will be gone on monday and he will be the president. it will either creator under his watch or succeed and if he is at all interested in r