. -- from ubs that clients should diversify. rachel reeves returns from china after a week in which markets pummeled u.k. assets. good morning. happy monday. another day, another reigning end of that surround the fed, just 28 basis points priced in, just one interest rate cut expected in 2025 after the jobs data friday came and hotter than many expected with the unemployment rate going lower and a total jobs number coming in at 256,000. you saw the selloff in bonds again friday, markets readjusting and equities stateside sold off heavily friday. there's been a challenge session in asia as well. ftse 100 futures pointing lower, s&p futures around the selloff friday currently pointing lower by .4%. nasdaq 100 futures looking to lose 125 points. the treasuries we focused on are not trading today because japan at least for the moment is closed for a holiday. treasuries will open for trading later in the day. focusing on euro-dollar and the pound. that surround further pound weakness are being made. further weakness from sterling as

now the bank ubs owns the ■ results of this inquiry and it also owns credit suisse's past of mishandlinghis whole event. earlier this month, senator whitehouse and i released updates from this investigation. shortly after, there were negative press leaks about ubs and possibly past disgrantled employees -- disgruntled employees. the leaks contain lies about the attack of mr. barofsky's character. these attacks serve no purpose other than to frustrate an investigation into credit suisse's nazi past. that absurd -- observed conduct is in fact a spit in the face to the victims of the holocaust. the united states congress won't tolerate and shouldn't tolerate that kind of evil here in the 21st century. and neither will those brave souls long past that lived through the nazi evil. they stand guard as our sp spiritual strength. so let this be a message to the bank obstructionists that this senator, as chair of the senate judiciary committee, i'll leave no stone unturned when it comes to nazi evils, and neither will senator whitehouse. i yield the floor. mr. thune: mr. president. the presiding

. >> did you see ubs is downgrading goldman sachs this morning ubs downgrading goldman sachs to neutraly a strong well positioned franchise valuation downgrading gold fold to neutral business modeled leans heavily on gbm, 65% revenues your thoughts on this downgrade of goldman sachs this morning your pick? >> yes well it is trading at 13 -- 1/2 times next year's earnings and drops in 2026 obviously,. we think they are going to continue to leverage their business, i don't pay much attention to analysts upgrades and downgrades they tend after the fact we use them for factual research but for upgrades and down grazed usually you want to buy when wall street is pessimistic a fabulous year last year may stall out all in 12 best ideas portfolio outperformed market since inception in 2019. we don't need all of them to work all the time, we just need most of them to work so i still like the name despite the downgrade. maria: all right. just wanted to mention because this morning what ubs is telling clients nancy great to see you as always. >> a "fox business" exclusive 1789 capital partner dona

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credit suisse by the way was rescued by ubs in 2023. the "wall street journal" reports that the settlement could come as soon as this week. the swiss bank pleaded guilty back in 2014 to helping thousands of americans cheat on their taxes. by the way shares of credit suisse parent ubs group up nearly 7% over the past year. that will do it for us let's get back to liz claman in sin city. take it away, liz. liz: yeah, sin city, where a lot of people get married. they have quick marriages so it's time to put a ring on it. let me show you the luna smart ring. i'm sure you've heard about the aura ring that logs your sleep. well here come the competitors. let me tell you about the luna smart ring. it basically is backed by bose and a company called noise, an indian smart watch company, one of the big leaders that tracks your sleep, heart, health, steps and more than 70 biomarkers. noise and german audio giant bose, basically they want to make sure that they capture that smart ring market that has gotten so incredibly popular. it comes in multi

this is off a ubs note from the analysts over there that came out yesterday.w predicting fewer iphone sales in december quarter than they originally thought. that's after seeing some weakness in iphone sell through for the month of november. let me break down what they're saying here. they're lowering their iphone revenue estimate for the quarter to $67.2 billion. they did have it at 69.7 billion. that had come out to 3.5% drop in year over year iphone sales if that does play out. that is not the story investors want to hear. this was the first full quarter of iphone 16 sales, that december quarter. along with the launch of apple intelligence. the hope was, of course, that the a.i. launch would drive sales growth for the iphone because you need the iphone 16 in order to use apple intelligence. but on the positive side here, the services business, everyone sees that growing at just this remarkable clip. ubs in the same note raised estimates for services business on the strength of app store sales. data in november, very positive there. not going to get the full

according to ubs, 2025 is a more challenging setup with several head winds, including inflation and rates remaining higher for longer. earnings must meet or exceed earnings. joining me now with top picks and a look at industrials in 2025 is managing director and head of large cap diversified industrials. look at that title. welcome to the studio. you and i used to talk transports. now you moved on to industrials. >> happy new year. >> why don't we start with your top pick. parker, shares up 39% over the last year. why is this company your top pick? >> a high quality company. 50% revenues are exposed to short cycle industrial exposure. 30% of the business is aerospace. they have a balance sheet that is prime to make further acquisitions, about $12 billion of capitol. so, it gives us the balance of secular growth via the aerospace, and creative acquisition, as well as exposure to a short cycle inflection, which we expect at ubs over the next five, six months. we have to be patient about that. companiesstart reporting results in january, we're not going to be pointing to a massive accelerati

ubs is lowering estimates for iphone sales which account for more than half of the tech giant's revenue if. apple just unveiled new discounts on several iphone mold to jump-start weak china purchases x that's got ubs analysts declaring, quote, winter is here for apple, the world's largest company. we got no bitcoin winter in sight, that's for sure. last year's best performing asset continues it march northward, gaining 3% right now. and that brings the price to $97,401 per coin, ab $11,000 short of the all-time high. is this the year central banks and big financials decide they need to buy up bitcoin too, and what will that mean to a company like mara holdings? the bitcoin miner ceo fred teel has also resorted not just the mining bitcoin, but to buying bitcoin as fast as he can. he's here in a fox business exclusive about what deep-pocketed banks and governments might do to the price if they kind of dive in and start scraping up what's out there, certainly. we'll watch that. overall, where are investors' heads at if we kick off 2025 the? where's your head at? are you all in on stocks? a

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galvanized our own defense industry investing nearly 70 billion dollars at home produce capabilities for ub okay, ukraine and replenish our home stocks, we face major challenges ahead, i am proud of the way that our allies and partners stepped up. since april of 2022, contact groups other members have committed more than 60 billion dollars in direct security assistant to ukraine.e. ukraine's needs on battlefield have evolved, so have contributions of the coalition. denmark, finland, germany, the netherlands, norway, poland, sweden, and spain have joined to provide ukraine with more tanks. germany has developed and led immediate action to air defense initiative. which has spurred partners to pledge more than a billion to support ukraine's air defenses. the czech republic, led a dozen countries in surging critical munitions through the czech initiative. which coordinated delivery of hundred of thousands of rounds last year. done denmark and the netherlands ukraine's first if 16 fighter jets and canada, denmark, france, romania, the u.k. and u.s. have found creative ways to train ukrainian pil

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it is focused on a viable future for both who don't already exist, either in terms of ubs hospitals and schools and critical infrastructure and goals that would be obliterated as it looked at the scale of the devastation caused by israel's military assault. as the the, the old trump who will be sworn in as the 47th president of the united states of america in less than 10 hours from now. the well he month visited to the white house where they make america great again, victory valley and the performance by the village. people of the capital one, the rena in washington, that he made from his up to promise to the crowds from filing to building in the missile shield to repeating, all of peasantry abides. executive orders also took credit for the cx 5 in gaza. or perhaps the most beautiful all this week we achieve that epic ceasefire agreement as a 1st step forward. lastly, this disagreement could only of happened as a result of our historic victory in november, redway. some victory was at that grade is i don't even know which was great or 2016 or this one. i think this one was there is mike

now one of the well leading crypto cards, if ubs is relocating a major part of its operations to el salvador of the company says of the central american countries and the budget financial hub for the western habits that this critical transition represents a defining moment. forbid, phonics derivatives and highlights l. salvatore's rise is a global financial hub to el salvador has embraced script of currency and facilitates use among the public of the country has declared bitcoin to be of special legal tend to el salvador is believed to have more than $500000000.00 in big coin reserves but let's discuss this in more detail with month case scenario. bitcoin advisor to the president of el salvador max is nice to have you join me right now, so be fine. next be fine. excess. moving its derivatives. are patients to el salvador. what is the significance of this move? can you talk to us about this? sure. well, outside of doors, because the new shining city on a hill for entrepreneurs and business is looking for economic freedom, the president made the claim legal tender. approximately 3 years ago, t

sergio ermotti is the ceo of ubs. good morning. >> nice to see you. >> we have so much to talk about. i want to start with this. i was talking with brian armstrong. what is your perspective from outside the u.s. given you have huge business in the u.s. in the next four years in the united states and how it all plays out? >> i do hope and believe that this new administration can help address some geopolitical issues that we have out there. that's the promise that we have been hearing. so, i have to say that would be a welcome movement because be it ukraine or the middle east, way too many tensions. also with china, hopefully we can see a solution. on the other end, the tariffs that may create a macroeconomics consequence that may create geopolitical tensions. >> does it feel like a different davos to you? the reason i mentioned that and i talked to becky about it earlier. for so many years, you come here and talk about esg and climate change and all other kinds of issues. we talk about competition to so degree, but it

joining me now ubs private wealth management financial advisor, sarah ponzak, also with me is john lonskifutures are pointing to a strong opening on the first trading day for the year, markets mixed for the month of december. but we did finish the fourth quarter higher and obviously the year-to-date story pretty darn amazing for 2024. the s&p 500 posted a 23% gain, its best two year performance since 1998. big tech, massive gains there, as you can see with the nasdaq. look at thstocks. amazon, nvidia, google, meta, microsoft. you say thathe mag magnificent seven has an important role to play the the growth story for 2025. >> good morning, and happy new year to you, cheryl. they absolutely do. if you look at the magnificent seven stocks in 2024, they were paramount to the s&p 500's return. you mentioned the s&p 500 up 23% last year and these companies alone that you're showing on the screen, they accounted for more than half of that return and if you look at the average return across the seven stocks, they were up more than 60%. we naturally have to ask ourselves why and, two, can it conti

ubs in truth are saying this is a buying opportunity at this price. look at chevron. chevron down 4.6% and at bottom of dow jones and oil producer blamed a fourth quarter profit miss on weak global margins and weak refining loss in four years. i've thrown so many headlines at you, less absorb it all and spit it out and interpret it with the floor show and cio jason ware. jason, you're an apple bull and talking earnings in just a moment. teddy, starting with you and power of earnings and how investors interpret them may keep its thumb on the market scale for the next few weeks. what do you think? >> well, absolutely, liz. when it comes to earnings, it's the earnings trifecta and top line and bottom line and perhaps most important is the guidance. get all three right and stocks get rewarded. miss one and there's a problem. i would say of the three, guidance going forward is the most important because let's not forget the markets are a forward looking indicator and not a trailing indicator. liz: okay, what about february. spinning it february on the last day of january.

nadia lovell of ubs.. cpi that morning at 8:30 eastern time and numbers from j.p. morgan too. lisa: which is going to be more important? with earnings coming out i think delta is fascinating. is this a demand-supply story or the fact people keep traveling because they have the money to do so and a consumer-driven economy story? we are going to continue to debate that. jonathan: the stock is up big time in the premarket. we will be running through more estimates around payrolls and what is going on around fixed income. let's get you an update with dani burger. dani: nearly to hunt thousand los angeles residents have been forced to evacuate, with five wildfires continuing to burn throughout the city. firefighters have made progress in containing some of the blazes. accuweather estimates some of the damage and economic losses could be as much as 150 billion dollars. that would make it one of the most expensive natural disasters in modern american history. nvidia is criticizing president biden on the new chip

i can hear myself rallying behind ubs.is a sufficient entry point for you now. that is the trajectory for the moment. jonathan: manus cranny, appreciate it. an update on some of the movers this morning. we are down here by .4%. under surveillance, canadian political leaders firing back at present elect donald trump's comments about the u.s. annexing canada. justin trudeau writing, "there is not a snowballs chance in hell candidate would become part of the united states." "candidate will never be the 51st state, period." annmarie: i want to lean into the individual that will likely be the next prime minister of canada. he was talking about in his statement that trudeau did not do a good job of explaining how much canada helps the u.s. when it comes to things like oil and gas, agriculture. this will be an interesting one to watch. i think the republicans love trolling trudeau. i wonder if the relationship will change with the new prime minister. lisa: if this is the goal for us to be talking about this with trump posting on

maria: the other day a week ago ubs downgraded goldman sachs due to neutral having dependence on thend market. will be looking at that limited evaluation, cbs's right-wing golden reports inflation the main talk, december ppi report this morning in a staccato mr. expecting another move up, 3107% year-over-year 3.4% in the bigger market mover is tomorrow with the consumer price index comes out that went up to 9.1% but is coming down pretty heavily in the last year retail sales out on thursday, the housing starts, building permit on friday. any expectation. >> i think there will be continue cost pressure, the massive amount of government spending the past four years you can't pass 31 trillion spending bills throughout ripple effects and you can't turn that off with a switch because of the fed saying it wants to stop raising rates were wants to start lowering like it did in november, that was premature and we need to work the excess cash out of the system, that is what is driving inflation. >> great to see you thanks so much. mark avallone joining us river valley, up 144 on the dow indus

anyonrae can be radicalized, give him the right circumstances and surroundings.ro clearly, this individual ub pcertainly had some troublinr past few years financially and ntfamily problems. perhaps even got into the wrongw crowd.as i think there needs to be more looking at andas atmos he was looking at and who is he associated with the last year an,ing,d what did his neighbor ? much like cisse to makeou something, say something we need to be better neighbors and on the lookout for our fellow american.. >> charlie: jonathan, one of the things the authorities today are talking about the importance of putting up better bollardss anfod securing securing theff streets for the last attack as you pointed out, that will be different than what the next atk is probably. do you havise any faith they are taking any of this stuff seriously question. >>theyrt when they start saying they are going to do it after d peopleyi die, in other words it takes people dying in order to do it, i have a problem with thatity. in those executives int city. g the reality is, you know, the nypd does this great everyday an

sonali: joining us now, ed al-hussainy of columbia threadneedle and leslie falconio of ubs. take a look at some of the dynamics in the bond market, that volatility under the surface, it is the biggest thing you are looking for as you start the year? ed: it is the policy mix. i think the biggest source of uncertainty this year is definitely the policy mix coming in. whether it is on the trade front, immigration, obviously fiscal policy toward the end of the year. underlying all of that i think the change in fed strategy we saw at the end of last year and how that is going to play out his top of mind. sonali: you brought up the fiscal and monetary, and leslie, which force is stronger heading into this year for the bond market? leslie: on the monetary side of the market is completely recalibrated. now they are looking for 38 basis points of cuts in 2025. e also believe there is only going to be about two cuts, one in june and one in september. but i do think monetary policy is going to play an important role, because they are data dependent. while the market is pricing in this

gary chefly was in charge of the investigation that had this fantastic development with credit suisse ubso he is a very talented individual and was just thrown aside because he stood up and did the right thing and called out the doj for covering up for joe biden and hunter biden. the coverup of joe biden continues. maria: it sure does. miranda, real quick before you go on the elon musk, mark zuckerberg comparison. interesting to see now that we could see tiktok go to elon musk, that china is thinking maybe elon musk is the best buyer of tiktok. how do you weigh that into all of this? >> look, again, i don't think it's good for these tech titans to amass too much power of their own. i think there's another -- kevin o'leary has another bid. i think it would be wrong to allow elon musk to take tiktok. maria: and frank mccourt as well. miranda, always a pleasure. thanks so much. >> thank you. maria: all right. miranda devine. goldman sachs earnings crossed moments ago. let's get to cheryl with the numbers. so far it's good news, what do you want to tell us on goldman. >> a plea you blow out o

ubs in switzerland at 4.3. but bellamy management at 4.5. state street four. morgan stanley at 3.3. jpmorgan chase. they still, you know, almost $3 trillion that they were managing amundi and france at 5 trillion. allianz and allianz owns pimco, which pimco is a u.s. investment company, but they totally bought out by allianz. and at 4.8 trillion, then capital 2.7 capital group privately held at there. kind of an interesting outlier in of a lot of the elite factions there's on the chart it shows that the um um. was $49 trillion in 22 or 26 trillion of the from these companies. so that's nearly double and and in three i looked up just recently blackrock now at 10.4 and vanguard's at 9.3 so there's an extra trillion you plus right there. so we know growing and expanding quite rapidly. and the global. 0.505% represents 40 million people. this includes. 6 million millionaires, usually multiples millionaires and 2600 billionaires. these are people who turn over their excess investment management firms like blackrock, jpmorgan chase. so these institutions of capitalism are property, busine

ub trump's push to pardon january 6th convicted rioters is now meeting resistance in his own party.rump's close ally senator lindsey graham raising a red flag about a blanket pardon. >> the power to exercise. the people who beat up police officers. >> one of them in this video using a police officer's shield to bust out a window in the capitol, allowing rioters to flood in. and now today four years after those moments trump today was certified as the president- elect of the usa. >> today was obviously a very important day. and it was about what should be the norm and what the american people should be able to take for granted, which is that one of the most important pillars of our democracy is that there will be a peaceful transfer of power. >> of course the vice president is tasked, right? with certifying the election. and she did that. it was a calm, respectful procedure. a moment that might make us all forget that feeling four years ago that we had when we sat glued to whatever your screen of choice was, maybe you were even moved to tears that day, watching a terrifying, horribly

bring in ubs or u.s. large bank analyst erica najarian. nice seeing you. laid out the backdrop of why things should be fantastic and yet in your note you say we've been down this road before in a very ominous tone. what's that all about? >> typically everything you listed here doesn't necessarily go together. if we get for example higher rates for longer, maybe loan growth not as strong and money centers do so well because they capture the demand of corporations in terms of financing on the balance sheet and for capital markets. charles: should it be -- is it too good to be true? an element that seems too simple? felt like maybe it's just -- we should be a little cautious. >> i completely disagree. the banks are low key ready to go. charles: ready to go? >> yea, because they've pulled back on the trump trade and everybody pes to poo poo them on whatever reason and higher rates but the big piece, the deregulation piece is massive. over christmas the fed said they were going to revisit the stress test for this year and banks suing the regulators and unlockin

ubs had lowered its iphone sales numbers and today a chinese research firm reported that shipments to china of foreign-branded smartphones including apple's, you know, iphones which are the big winner there fell by 47.4% in november from a year earlier. the stock is down about 5% this week alone. we've got to show you the wild price action in tesla. remember yesterday it slid 6%, notching its fifth consecutive day of losses after its ev deliveries fell year-over-year for the first time ever? right now the tesla bears have crawled back into their caves on news that while its china sales fell in december from a year ago, they jumped 12.8% month over month, and overall chinese purchases of evs made by tesla hit a record for 2024. stock is up 6.7% right now, but competition in ev land is skyrocketing, and that could be an overhang at some point during the year. speaking of skyrocketing, if you're one of those investors really wishing you could instead make a different bet on tesla ceo elon musk-made company, say by buying shares in his still-private rocket ship company spacex? you actuall

2023 with failures of silicone valley bank volunteers with credit suisse, forced in that marriage with ubsthrough banks have gone ahead cleaned thing up dramatically that is why looking at banking etf the other side of this is that you've got yield curves steep so banks can i know give you and me, a pretty -- when we put money in savings but give you higher rate based on shape of the yield curve where 10 years are from that angle banks are going to see much better being about the profitability on that interest margins president trump coming in focusing on deregulation, cutting taxes, so that is really good for bank stocks why they are one of our top five picks, because you've seen bank, wbiden we are recommending that is down 4% last three years because of banking crisis, s&p 500 up 23% over that time so you've got a big discrepancy bank, next week a good idea how things are going to perform. >> i love the fact that some of your picks do go back to policies. and that is -- that is the difference here you see a different policy coming in, so you are looking at the impact, on sectors, deregu

let's bring in ubs head of u.s. equities, david lefkowitz. here. >> yeah. durable economic growth. look, i don't think there's much debate about that, right? unemployment rate is low, there's more open jobs than unemployed people. the fed has cut interest rates, growth should be pretty durable. you know, moderate disinflation, this is a little more debatable. we had strong disinflation the last two years. it's kind of slowed down, in other words, the rate of increase in prices is still moderating. charles:s right. >> it's going to be bumpy, but we still think it's moving in the right direction. and these two factors, strong growth while you've got disinflation if at the same time, really favorable for markets, and that's why markets have rally ared -- charles: it's not contradictory this. >> no, well, we went sure we could do this back in '22, but we did it. charles: speaking of bumpy, a.i. adoption and investment. we learned this could be a bumpier ride than we thought a couple of weeks ago. >> obviously, a lot of dislocations because of the

erin writes on social media getting ready at my second day at my new ub. you and me both.f her car after yesterday's snowstorm in maryland. also pack those snow boots and tread carefully of. it's icy. jason says i'm trying to get 50 million things done before leaving for vacation on saturday. and another viewer is up early smuggling with this brand new bundle. congratulations, so beautiful. >>> up next, funeral services for former president jimmy carter continued today. we'll have the details as his procession is set to travel here the washington, d.c. >>> and coming up on "morning joe," it was a much different scene on capitol hill yesterday compared to four years ago as congress officially certified donald trump's 2024 election win. we'll dig into that stark contrast. >>> plus, the head of the mta will be guest to talk about new york city's controversial new congestion pricing. and also ahead oscar-nominated actress carol kane will be in studio with a look at her new film "between the temples." that's all on "morning joe" just moments away. s. that's all on "morning joe"

with ambition like that, you need someone who elevates advice to a craft at ubs. we match your vision with insight and expertise to shape a unique outcome for you. advice is our craft. >> ever feel like a spectator in your own life with chronic migraine? 15 or more headache days a month, each lasting four hours or more? botox prevents headaches in adults with chronic migraine. in a survey, 91% of users wish they'd started sooner. so why wait? talk to your doctor. >> botox effects may spread hours to weeks after injection, causing serious symptoms. alert your doctor right away as trouble swallowing, speaking, breathing, eye problems or muscle weakness can be signs of a life threatening condition. those with these conditions before injection are at highest risk. side effects may include allergic reactions like rash, breathing problems, dizziness, neck and injection site pain and headache. don't receive botox if there's a skin infection. tell your doctor your medical history. muscle or nerve conditions like als, myasthenia gravis or lambert-eaton syndrome, and medici

ubs, maybe it's still feeling the heat over 2009 with the lowest -- so now that wall street is bullish we be worried? if. >> no, i don't think you need to be worried. look, i think -- i agree with phil. i think we yet an 8-9% return this year, maybe 10 on the upside. and that's going to feel terrible after two 20% if years, very disappointing, right in but look, analysts right now are expecting earnings to come in for the s&p at $249 a share by the end of next year. they're at 208 as we're entering into this year. so they're expecting $40 of growth. the long-term trend of earnings growth is around 2218. charles: -- 218. charles: right. >> if we just see earnings move back a bit around 218, that's going to to make these valuations you were talking about a few minutes ago -- charles: right. >> absolutely correct. wall street's very optimistic about earn, and i think any disappointment we're going to see a bit of pressure probably mid year and see a bit of, a better buying opportunity later on this year. charles: let me pick up on your -- [inaudible conversations] sustaining these high ea

at ubs. >> we match. >> your vision with.d expertise to shape a unique expertise to shape a unique outcome for you. my mental health was better. but uncontrollable movements called td,tardive dyskinesia, started disrupting my day. td felt embarrassing. i felt like disconnecting. i asked my doctor about treating my td, and learned about ingrezza. ♪ ingrezza ♪ ingrezza is clinically proven to treat td, quickly reducing td by greater than five times at two weeks. number-one prescribed ingrezza has dosing that's always one pill, once daily. and you can keep taking most mental health meds. ingrezza can cause depression, suicidal thoughts, or actions in patients with huntington's disease. call your doctor if you become depressed, have sudden behavior or mood changes, or suicidal thoughts. don't take ingrezza if allergic. serious side effects may include allergic reactions like sudden, potentially fatal swelling and hives, sleepiness, the most common side effect, and heart rhythm problems. know how ingrezza affects you before operat

john is back with us and he is a senior homebuilder analyst at ubs. unwarranted? mortgage applications were at a 30 year low. >> thank you for having me. i think the fact of the matter is that underlying demand is actually pretty good. the most recent data from our evidence lab housing attention survey shows 31% of buyers intend to pull the trigger over the next 12 months. that is above the historical average of 30. the intent to buy or the ability to buy and there are headwinds. but we have a lot of pent-up demand and another built market. we think we will have those single digit growth this year with builders able to outperform that pretty meaningfully. i think there is a tremendous amount of fear in the market right now and that is what has been the catalyst for us to get published typically this is the time when the fear translates into good opportunities for investors. >> the setup is strange because we are in the middle of what is supposed to be this fed rate cutting cycle and traditional you see housing start to pick up a manufacturing start to pick up and

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