, go with the adp number?r wage data may be the most important and it has been different. >> steve, thank you. we'll see you a little later. when we do, maybe we can talk about what the fed thinks about the higher yields, how that plays into their calculus too. >> excellent question. >> neleh will be here. do not run out there and -- >> talk to her ahead of time? >> glom all over here. just leave her alone. >> he wants to do that himself. >> up next, stocks on the move ahead of the opening bell. and corning ceo wendell weeks will join us. "squawk box" will be right back. >>> welcome back to "squawk box." two social media stocks thouthough i showing better results. you don't want to miss an exclusive interview, evan spiegel on money movers today. shares of reddit are soaring, earnings of 16 cents per share beat estimates for a 7 cent loss. revenue beat estimates in daily active users growing 47% year over year, $97.2 million now. the company's guidance coming in above expectations. look at shares of shake shack

adp was nothing and now all of a sudden because the fed says it is watching adp people are paying attention what might happen on nonfarm payrolls. the adp people tell you straight out of this is not a forecast, this is just our own number. dani: i thought the really interesting part of powell's discussion was when he was talking about the tension between consumption and labor markets and he said we care more about the labor markets, they give more of a real-time indicator that something like gdp, which historically cannot call recessions very well. does that mean we need to pay more attention to adp? how should we approach all of these labor market data points? jonathan: most of them -- michael: most of them you can ignore. adp gets traded because it gets traded. it does not predict what will happen with nonfarm payrolls. even if it did, it is the nonfarm payrolls numbers that matter. unless there is a clear trend it is the payrolls report before the fed meeting and we get that november 1. as anne-marie was saying, that could be screwed up. that could be hard to read. i would look past this

thanks to nela richardson, chief economist at adp.oast are heading back to work today — after their union agreed to suspend strike action untiljanuary 15th. it comes after they reached a �*tentative' deal with port operators that will see their pay rise more than 60% over the next ten years. the port shutdown — in place since monday — was costing the us an estimated $5 billion a day — with long queues of container ships backing up outside ports. michelle fleury has been following the story. they have suspended this strike. so, in other words, tens of thousands of dock workers along the east and gulf coasts are going to return to the job at least until january 15th. and the idea here is to try and give both sides time to return to the negotiating table and kind of work on some of those lingering issues. we know that there was questions about whether or not there would be any improvement on retirement benefits that were offered on health care, but perhaps the biggest issue of all was automation. and when i was at the picket line earlier

we will get you some adp data coming up next on the program. ♪ jonathan: just to mix things up, an adp3,000, which is a significantly higher number than anticipated. the forecast was for 111,000. the september number revised up to 159,000 from 143,000. we had a major increase in jobs in the months of august and september where we saw jobs rise by 223,000 in private payrolls. that is the comparable to the adp, so this is a number that suggests some real strength in the labor market that may has not been expected. jonathan: what happened to the hurricane noise everyone is pricing in for friday? michael: here is the thing about the hurricanes that we don't know, the timing effect. hurricanes hit on either end of the reference week, which is the week that includes the 12th of the month, so if you work at all , if you worked one hour, you would be counted as employed, so it is very possible the people from helene got back to work. a number of them and the people from milton had not yet lost their jobs in the meantime, so that is something we will have to keep an eye on on friday when we get

expected, the estimate was 114,000 jobs and adp report just hitting now, and, actually, 233,000 jobs, created in month of october much better than expected watching to see if any impact here, here too, the immigration story has hit employment where we know that much of the job creation has gone to noncitizens, in the last year, but my point about security, is that now you've got people cross the country with fear that they did not have four years ago, the fear of can i walk in the streets alone can i go out after-hours? the fear is there and likely dictating behavior. >> maria people need to understand the yarn kamala harris trying to spin now in last two months of this campaign, that it is them their party, their surrogates appointees will revolve the migrant crisis every time, you see capitals of people within the administration, taking step after step after step to make our border less secure. not just him but mayorkas o goes down the line, if the american public is fooled on this issue, which they say is number one, or number two depending on poll you ask if fooled by kamala harr

and there's that strong adp number, 233,000. of this is dramatically different from the expectexpect, they saw anemic growth, and waning job growth. now the question is, the job market is strengthening instead of weakening. this is well above the consensus on the government and private sector. but adp still counts striking workers and workers affected by hurricanes because they're on the payrolls. if they were on the payrolls, it only counts on the bls if they received a paycheck. so the adp seeing the job market is just fine, even if it may not look like it on friday. some forecasters love adp, others hate it. but the relative miss are only plus or minus 29,000. pretty good for government work. >> our next guest has a little different opinion of what's going on. >> that's why we have the next guest. >> let's drill down, as they say, on the data and message here. does the economy remain resilient? our next guest is shifting from the mega caps to small caps. we're also joined by peter bookmar. welcome to both of you. stacey, so y

your thoughts. >> well, about 30 minutes ago the adp if job numbers came out, and they were strongergues for a strong jobs report on friday, and it's the also emboldening. it's one of the reasons why labor leaders are willing to ask for more when they strike. maria: all right. all great points. thanks, even, adam, trisha, lee. see you again tomorrow. "varney & company" picks it up. stu, take it away. stuart: good morning, earn.

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adp stronger than expected. ou

. >> adp looked good this morning, but this strike the could take 45,000 jobs off the october payroll if we're not careful. charles: october surprise may come with an asterisk, right? i feel like the momentum was going down anyway. they might, they may actually be able to say, or well, it was the strike. ladies, thank you both very much. really appreciate it. all right, liz claman, over to you. liz all right. here we go, charles. we're -- i'm going to call this a jump ball. a jump ball between the bulls and the bears as we kick off the final hour of trade because what you see on the screen belies what's been happening since the opening bell, and that is very choppy trade. the dow has been in and out of the paint over the past five and a half hours. blue chips at one point were up by as much as 1022 and down by as much -- 10 the 2 and down by as much as 188. right now still in the green by about 54 points. need you to look at the heat map here because but for nike diving nearly 7%, the dow would actually be looking even better. nike came out with bad news after the bell, okay? while th

adjustment for adp if data, big government job contractor or, in october.nds at macro edge, they documented more than 105,000 job cuts announced in the month of october, international paper, dropbox, those are big names that have announced more layoffs today. americans are not imagining that these things are happening on the ground in their lives, and yet the media keeps stying -- trying to convince them that everything's going to be just fine. charles: you know, here's the weird thing about all of that, right, consumer spending, we saw the consumer spending numbers this morning running at an annualized rate of 3.8%. income, taking out those transfer payments at 1.1%, that's a huge gull -- gulf. we know that's not sustainable. on top of that, earlier this week we learned a record number of americans plan to visit a foreign country next year. i think it's depression depression. i see it as a sign i don't believing in the future, i'm going to go out and spend my check and have fun today to. how do you see this data? because it is confusing. >> it's very confu

that jobs report from adp, normally we dismiss adp and then everyone points to it.ting quite a bit of strength. what happens if we get corp. a set also comes in hotter than expected? the key metric, the federal reserve looks at for inflation? jonathan: adp is now flying solo. jobless claims of the last weeks post of jobless claims, look out for that. do deficits matter? look at this move. two year, 10 year, 30-year. united kingdom, let's call it a basis points. this is what the debt management office has got to say. second biggest target on record. this is what we are thinking about coming off the back of the budget post of investors are pointing to the official projections that imply 142 billion sterling of borrowing over the next five years. does that supply matter in the u.k.? apparently, does. lisa: it was not a liz truss moment i guess that was the goal of the whole affair. deutsche bank put this while saying this marks one of the largest physical loosening of any u.k. fiscal event in decades. it erases the question you raised yesterday, which is essentially yo

of what you believe will happen with the markets as they absorb this kind of number that we got with adp balanced with a weaker gross domestic product number. >> well, i'd add to those two statistics the 62% wage increase that the dock workers got, which is 8.5% per year on average and 35% four year wage increase plus $7,000 signing bonus and plus augmentation of the matching of 401(k)s for the machinists that they turned down flatly. things are lining up and all that $12 trillion of monetized debt including inflation what i call inflation creation about does is slashing around for the economy and blevin are largest group for 65-80 year-olds and they're all out there floshing around and it's very difficult to not have a pretty strong economy and in fact, didn't jamie dimon say it's kind of a boom? liz: tech was drenched in euphoria and look at that and say, let me look for prosperous segments elsewhere and if so, what are they? bay 40% bare market and it was a bear market that interrupted the go go qqq love fest with the most aggressive stocks and we've sentedderred in on a relatively co

adp, strong, strong, strong.f you look at intraday of two-year, they're the ones arm locked with fed policy, we see rates went up, then a strong consumption, rates went up, less inflation, rates went down. what changed everything? let's pair that chart with a two-year good the in the u.s. with regard to liz trust, after the budget news came out, a tert came out, something else came out. they'll have to sure mo supply. that's been my manual ra for months and months. not only will the u.s. compete for investment dollars. we'll be competing with many other economies -- uk, china, and you see how the two-year in the uk popped in a reverse course with us. smart. if you open that up, all of a sudden that two-year gilt, maybe not sound like a lot, but it was on the way down not that many sessions ago. this underscores the down side of a globalization and debt-ridding world. we're asking questions about what happens after after the election. we'll have to find way to pay for servicing the debt. i don't see how these pric

the adp private payrolls and gdp, that might be a market mover. the benchmark, two-24, over 4%.g bond, 4.48. those numbers rising. this is a read on expectations. d.c. coming up this week. and we're going to speak to tour steppe slok about pgg and yield and much more. also this morning, we're looking at cryptocurrency, bitcoin. you see bitcoin pulling back a bit, down 0.75%. it's coming off all -time, 72,000, coming up 200 bucks short. big for bitcoin going specifically into the election. that's the morning set up. we want to go to the morning's money movers. parent company, alphabet, jumping after the open, up 5.5%, after reporting a 34% profit pop in the third quarter. strong computer sales, those are a driver, 35 billion, up 35% year over year. alphabet easing investor concerns over its most profitable segments search and advertising. s sales up 12%. and new minted cfo says spending levels will likely increase in the year ahead. >> we will be investing in q4 at approximately the same level that we've invested in q3, approximately 13 billion. and as we think into 2025, we do s

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adp numbers stronger than expected. we are building up to nonfarm payrolls, that data print on friday, which will round out the labor market detail that we have got through this week. there was evidence of cooling when it comes to adp on a three-month average basis. 379 is the yield on the benchmark 10 year. euro-dollar at 1.10. brent, 74 point 76 up 1.2% with a clear focus on tensions in the middle east. goal that 2655. let's get more details in terms of what is unfolding in terms of potential is really retaliation to iran. the u.s. are urging israel not to attack iran's nuclear facilities for this week's missile barrage. president biden plans to speak with prime minister netanyahu as the u.s. and g7 allies plan further sanctions on iran. joumanna bercetche joins me with the details. what good is riel's response look like. we are expecting a response. we do not know what time frame, but what of the options they may be looking at? >> there is broad-based support within israel of this response to come soon important to b

adp came i (vo) memory and thinking issues keep piling up?more options you may have. learn more at amyloid.com. leo! [whistling] better poo, better you! that's a good boy, leo! >>> take a look at home depot. stocks up about 50 bucks the past month. today gordon haskett goes to a target of $450. they asked mortgage builders, what rate would you be interested in if you delayed buying. there's a sample of responses but they think we'll get activity. >> that's why we bought it. i thought this was the sweet spot. they've had a couple of bad years. no longer. this is their time. it's their time. >> we'll watch that. we'll get stock trading with jim in a minute. in a minute. dow is dow ooh! penny stocks are blowing up. sweetie, grab your piggy bank, we're going all in. let me ask you. for your wedding, do you want a gazebo and a river? uh, i don't... what's a gazebo? son 5.ing that your mother always wanted and never got. or...you could give these different investment options a shot. the right money moves aren't as aggressive as you think. i'm keepi

coming up, jared woodward, adam posen, and jonathan gold, and nila richardson of adp.econd hour of "bloomberg surveillance," up next. it's our son, he is always up in our business. it's the verizon 5g home internet i got us. oh... he used to be a competitive gamer but with the higher lag, he can't keep up with his squad. so now we're his “squad”. what are kevin's plans for the fall? he's going to college. out of state, yeah. -yeah in the fall. change of plans, i've decided to stay local. oh excellent! oh that's great! why would i ever leave this? -aw! we will do anything to get him gaming again. you and kevin need to fix this internet situation. heard my name! i swear to god, kevin! -we told you to wait in the car. everyone in my old squad has xfinity. less lag, better gaming! i'm gonna need to charge you for three people. >> the economy is pretty resilient. i think we have turbulence ahead. >> it's certainly much lower than it had been. >> we were seeing much steeper slowdown we were anticipating you certainly could get a steeper rate >> of cuts. >>we don't really nee

major economic data, the october adp in the first read of quarter gdp coming out this morning could bearket mover, the federal reserve inflation september pce out tomorrow ahead of the october jobs report on friday, then this trump social media company pulling back this morning after soaring along with the polls, djt valued higher than elon musk's x in the new york times. everything you need to know about the moves, european market is in the red take a look at the euros on decline across the board in europe. in asia as well, markets mostly lower and the asian embassies with the exception of japan which is down again, joining the conversation bullseye american ingenuity fund manager adam johnson, new york city council joe borelli and frontier strategy ceo mehek cooke. "mornings with maria" is live right now. ♪. maria: the white house doing damage control after president biden insulted trump supporters while on harris campaign and campaigning days before the election. fox news lucas tomlinson is live from washington right now with all of the white house spin after the horrible comment fr

coming out this week, key economic data and focus inflation and jobs on tap, the first gdp in october adpber coming out tomorrow the september pc index coming out on thursday and october jobs report out on friday. everything you need to know right here. oil prices trading this way after huge selloff yesterday let's take a look at prices below $70 a barrel on crude 6793, that is up a fraction after i believe a 5% plus selloff yesterday. european markets in the green take a look at the years a couple dozen p100 trading higher in london up 24, 34%, the cat caught up 52 and the dax index higher by 102 in europe. in asia markets finish mostly higher, the shanghai composite the one weak spot with the decline in the session of 1%, joining the conversation all morning long republican strategist and former top administration official tricia mclaughlin, payne capital management president ryan payne. "mornings with maria" is live right now. ♪. maria: we kick it off with a hot topic of the hour. we are one week out from the presidential election and candidates are pounding the pavement on the campaig

risk off tone, and that overshadowed some positive news in the economy, as private sector hiring or adpbetter than expected for september, adding 143,000 jobs last month. this suggests that the labour market is holding its ground despite some signs of weakness, but the focus will be on friday's septemberjobs report. that's more likely to impact the market ahead of the federal reserve�*s next move on interest rates in november. many have warned one of the biggest changes we expect to see from any conflict in the middle east is on the price of oil. in the past it has risen sharply over fears of supply disruptions from one of the world's biggest oil producing regions. but so far the reaction has been relatively muted. prices initiallyjumping before remaining steady. so why the change? david fyfe is chief economist at argus media. yesterday we saw that initial spike as investors try to work out what that conflict could mean. what is happening today, why are they seemingly calmer? it does account for one third of the world's production? the reuion of of the world's production? the region of

we're paying more attention to adp, like the private payroll data.e thing and get a full picture. you have to look at seven or eight different metrics. you take the totality of the metrics and adp, it tells you we're okay. it's cooling off. we're cooling off from a period of extreme strength. the labor market you could qualify as cooling but not cool yet. we need to avoid the cool part. once it gets there, then the nonlinear effects take place and it's not good. maria: you've got outside elements underway, china and that stimulus last week. that is holding up the kai niecs markets. hedge funds are piling into the stocks that i would not touch with a 10-foot pole. what do you think the china effect is? >> it's incredibly confusing. fool me once, fool me twice. the. the u-turn on covid has been a surprise. they've been wrong he every time. we'll see. maria: we don't know the financials of these companies. >> correct. maria: they don't follow the rules that american companies follow. but then there's japan, nor big story for markets. the yen extending l

. >>> payroll processing firm did adp said companies hired 233,000 workers. adp said the numbers were better than the september numbers of 159,000 despite a strong storm season. the report also found in addition to higher hiring, wages grew more than 4.5% from a year ago. >>> volvo trucks is recalling more than 126,000 trucks due to issues with the electronic control units. a low signal to the power line could cause the unit to process the wrong command or stop working. >>> marvel deadpool and wolverine is heading to the disney plus streaming platform next month, the studio made the announcement today in a social media post. the superhero movie is the second highest-grossing film of the year. earning $1.3 billion at the global box office. >> thank you. >>> coming up, consumer confidence surges to its highest level in three years just ahead of election day, why now and how t it's actually doing. >>> ahead on "nbc news daily". . now i have skyrizi. ♪ i've got places to go and i'm feeling free ♪ ♪ control of my crohn's means everything to me ♪ ♪ control is every

the jolt the moving jolts in the pace of the decline that is not just in jolts but if you took the adped it was down 250,000 in the reason i bring these up, i would get your thoughts on recession, the whole theme has been about the rally, the rally, renaissance, renaissance just another are lingering but how soon might it happen? >> remember recession can be defined in two ways it can be defined as the entire economy is slowing in joblessness is happening in standard of living is falling or you can take a look at the lower half versus upper half of the income distribution i think recession conditions already exist in the lower half of the income distribution we are seeing job decreases, we are seeing wages that keep up with inflation, we're seeing inflation eating with standard of the blaming those are classical definition of recession. the people at the top top 10% they have a huge infusion of cash for the federal government they are spending on the stock market, that is what you're seeing right now. charles: that bothers me essentially what you're saying and what i've been talking ab

what should we company-wide power now anything can change the world of work from hr two payroll. >> adp designs for the next anything? thanks thanks. >> one, feel your memory is an amazing thing. >> but sometimes it can start to slow down. but did you know provision can help keep your memory sharp? the secret is the powerful ingredient apple a coren originally discovered in jellyfish and found only in provision in a clinical study, provision was shown to improve memory in subgroups of individuals who are cognitively normal or mildly impaired stay sharp and improve your memory with provision. provision in stores everywhere without a prescription. >> i'm a lifelong republican. i voted for trump twice, but i can't do it again. trump wants a national sales tax on imported goods. >> it'll make everything more expensive for regular people all while giving tax breaks to billionaires we're gonna give you tax. >> kamala harris is for regular people. she wants to tax cut for 100 million americans. so we keep more of our harder on money. i'm a proud republican, but this year i'm voting for kamala

ago showed better—than—expected growth of 143,000 last month according to the payroll processing firm adpe bbc the us is enjoying a goldilocks scenario when it comes to the economy. he says while the economy slowing down he sees no sign of recession. i spoke to him in new york and explained what the good news about the economy means for his bank. �* , about the economy means for his bank. �*, bank. it's the goldilocks scenario _ bank. it's the goldilocks scenario where - bank. it's the goldilocks scenario where the - bank. it's the goldilocks scenario where the fed | bank. it's the goldilocks - scenario where the fed brings inflation down and we don't go into recession. i think we are into recession. i think we are in the slowdown but i don't see it heading into recession. fin it heading into recession. on the it heading into recession. 0n the consumer banking site do you plan to wind that down somewhat?— you plan to wind that down somewhat? ., , ,, , somewhat? consumer banking is, i do our business _ somewhat? consumer banking is, i do our business model— somewhat? consumer banking is, i

we've got wednesday, the precursor to the october jobs report which is the adp. third quarter gdp, the first read that we'll be getting on that. >> well, they are all important, liz, but at the end of the day it's going to be the direction of interest rates, and that remains the $64 question and the fed will always be the 800-pound gorilla in the room. if as your other guest pointed out there is the prospect of lower rates clearly that's a positive for the market, but in the very short-term, liz, it's going to be the election results to a certain degree. it's certainly going to be earnings next week and for the few weeks that follow. i would agree in one sense that the pe multiples that you just referred to are pretty rich if not very rich but there's nothing rational about the stock market or the stock pricing. stocks tend to get over bought and they tend to get over sold and right now, clearly, we're in probably the over bought stage but it is supported by growth and these big tech companies in particular are the bellwether for growth. i mean, they put the numb

this morning we had the adp number.appening with the bls number which, of course, that jobs report is friday. but this adp number was substantially above consensus, and then we've got the advanced gdp coming in at 22 the.8%. -- 2.8%. consensus was 22. 9, but individual components were up huge, marley spending. absolutely out of this world -- particularly spending. again, there's so many ways to measure the economy. and one thing that i looked at this morning was the intersection of a company called caterpillar. it's about 200 years old. they missed on revenues and earnings and management, obvious, they always have a lot of reasons when this kind of stuff happens. but one thing that stood out bigtime is that we're not building in america. we don't build things in america that much, right? at least not, you know, listen, you get an occasional tall building in new york city, that kind of stuff. but i think the prime example, for instance, going into this third quarter, structures, they continued their long retreat. negativ

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from hr to payroll, adp designs forward-thinking solutions to take on the next anything.se financial our advice is personalized based on your goals, whatever they may be. all that planning has paid off. looks like you can make this work. we can make this work. and the feeling of confidence that comes from our advice... i can make this work. that seems to be universal. i can make this work. i can make this work. no wonder more than 9 out of 10 clients are likely to recommend us. because advice worth listening to is advice worth talking about. ameriprise financial. maria: welcome back where markets ended the week of mixed earnings report for the third quarter investors are waiting the biggest tech names in the world reported the week ahead, join me not to get ahead pipers and the chief investment strategist michael kantrowitz, good to see you, thank you so much for being here the earnings news how would you assess it and what are you expecting from next week with microsoft, meta, amazon, apple all reporting in the week ahead. >> most of this year s&p earnings estimate have

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from hr to payroll, adp designs for the next anything. stuart: we have red ink but not that much.daq down 130 and there's the loss for you. that's 0.7% for the nasdaq and mike murphy is with us and he's going back to the well. roaming he likes the stock with technologies. he raised that before. >> i have and it was down around $6ish and now here it is today and knew 52 week high and back in 2021 this was a almost $20 stock and i think this is becoming a big bank for the younger generation for gen z. look at what sofi is doing and a great management team and i own this stock and there's a lot more room to go from like $10 a share. stuart: i like a bank branch where i can walk in and talk to the teller. i'm the only one in there that like it is. you also like united health group. they're down 6%. >> it's been a great performer over the last few years. >> off the low and this is a company if you get a chance to buy on big weak look at miles per hours they put up and numbers in the overall industry may have head winds but the best in the industry is united healthcare and it's a great

from hr to payroll, adp designs for the next anything.w in an instant things can transform. slipping out of balance into freefall. i'm glad i found stability amidst it all. gold. standing the test of time. stuart: we have got the dow close to 200 points, the nasdaq down about 30. a mixed picture but some green over there. disney, the new online game topped one million downloads in its first seven days, stock is up 1%. florida's orange crops took a major hit. in fort meade, is the price of orange groups going to go up? ashley: undoubtedly no doubt about it. production was already low before hurricane milton decided to go overhead in polk county which is the biggest orange producing county in the state. near the grove, if they didn't fall down the fruit hanging from them came down onto the ground and are no good. this happened before the usda put out at citrus production forecast for this year which came in at 15 million boxes, 90 pounds of oranges, that's down 19% from last year and the lowest output since 1933, 91 years. there's still ass