andy verity is here. incredibly andy verity is here. incredibly bleak andy verity is here. incredibly pict| painted an incredibly bleak economic picture painted today by the institute for fiscal studies, warning about a long, hard, unpleasantjenny. yes. long, hard, unpleasant jenny. yes, and long, hard, unpleasantjenny. yes, and the trouble _ long, hard, unpleasantjenny. yes, and the trouble is, _ long, hard, unpleasantjenny. yes, and the trouble is, we _ long, hard, unpleasantjenny. yes, and the trouble is, we have - long, hard, unpleasantjenny. 1913 and the trouble is, we have already had one, we have already had one of the worst decades for improvements in living standards since the industrial era began will stop it was called a lost decade between 2008 and 2018 but now what the institute for fiscal studies is saying is that it could get even worse and we could be heading for another lost decade. if you look at the trend since the war, we have a chance to show this, you can see that you get real household disposable income, more or less the same as living standards, accelerating al

gf 0ur economics correspondent andy verity is here. that's the backdrop for tomorrow's autumn statement from the chancellor? it really is. the bank of england have predicted it would peak at round 11% so it is not expected in that regard but it has happened sooner than most were expecting, the average forecast was for 10.7% this time round. it could get higher than len.1, we don't know how lit play out in the next few months but the prediction is it will fall next year, so lit drop back in to single digits in the back half of next year. what we don't yet know that we need to learn tomorrow in the autumn statement, is what kind of level of government support for households we will have after april, because jeremy hunt has said he won't do the same level of support then, that the truss government was planning, we expect a bit more targeted on poorer households, which may be appropriate given that the 0ns put out new figures showing they are experiencing a greater rate of inflation. nato now says the missile that killed two people yesterda

here's our business correspondent andy verity.k country makes harnesses and cables for ambulances, cars and electric vehicles. it's a growth business thatjust opened its second factory, but it's struggling with the cost of components and raw materials, which has been surging one of the reasons business is being held back. obviously, we need customer support and we work with the customers, but actually we look within. so look at our efficiencies, look at the opportunities we've got to increase output. an increase in output might mean we only stand still, but actually in the current climate that is the best possible outcome. so how is this going? with much of the world economy slowing, the car makers who make up this company's customers saw a sharp reduction in business, with the manufacturing sector down by 2.3% over the summer, the sharpest drop in overfour decades. all subsectors of manufacturing fell in the quarter three, and that didn't even happen at the height of the pandemic. and actually, you have to go back to the 19805 fo

andy verity, bbc news.e rise will mean significantly higher mortgage payments for millions of homeowners at a time when many people are already struggling to make ends meet with surging inflation and energy bills. 0ur correspondent navtej johal reports from derby. 0mar is a veterinary surgeon based in derby. he came to the uk four years ago and had planned to buy a home and settle here long—term. but the recent political and economic turmoilfollowing now former prime minister liz truss's mini budget has made him think twice. when i lose trust in something, it's really difficult to gain it back. um... have you lost trust in the uk? i trust my colleagues, i trust my friends. i trust a lot of people in the uk. but it shook my trust in the system. with interest rates rising further today, which is likely to make mortgages even more expensive, 0mar says he's now considering whether he should even stay in the uk. let's say for the next year, if this continues to happen, ok, so my theoretical plans on paper i will

andy verity, bbc news. 0ur economics editor faisal islam joins me.sion? , ., , ~ , we appear to be inching closer to a recession? , ~ , ., recession? yes, as andy said and as ou said recession? yes, as andy said and as you said at — recession? yes, as andy said and as you said at the _ recession? yes, as andy said and as you said at the start, _ recession? yes, as andy said and as you said at the start, one _ recession? yes, as andy said and as you said at the start, one quarter. you said at the start, one quarter over the summerfrom july over the summer from july to september where the economy fell. actually, it was expected it would fall further than zero 20%, if you are a glass half full, you might think it is better than expected. it is the news going on from that right now, over the next year. the expectation from the bank of england and others that will see continuing quarters of economic contraction. the economy getting smaller and smaller. that is what would signal that we are now in a recession and that we are now in a recession and thatis t

andy verity, bbc news. economist at pgim fixed income. catherine, good to see you. britain, of course at the moment is braced for budget cuts this week. what role does the autumn statement tomorrow from the government play in cooling inflation? taste from the government play in cooling inflation?— from the government play in cooling inflation? we will have to see what — cooling inflation? we will have to see what details _ cooling inflation? we will have to see what details are - to see what details are announced tomorrow but we do expect a combination of higher taxes and lower spending and that should help to bring down demand which, in turn should help to return inflation back to the 2% target. help to return inflation back to the 296 target.— help to return inflation back to the 296 target. how far are we have getting _ to the 296 target. how far are we have getting to _ to the 296 target. how far are we have getting to the - to the 296 target. how far are | we have getting to the point? are we near the

andy verity, bbc news.ions representing nhs workers today — to try to avoid a winter of strikes. last week, members of the royal college of nursing voted for industrial action, demanding a 17% pay rise. ballots in other unions could see paramedics, health care assistants, porters and cleaners also vote to walk out. as the chancellor puts the finishing touches to his autumn statement on thursday, there are fears that some of the savings he makes could come from the £120 billion spent on benefit payments every year. millions of disabled people rely on this income to help pay for the extra costs of having a disability. ruth clegg reports. like many disabled people, hannah has had to fight to live independently. it took a long time and a lot of courage, and i'm persevering to build my life up to what i built it up to. and now the rising cost of living is putting all that at risk. i feel like a prisoner in my own home, whether it be because of financial reasons and i can't afford to do things, or not having the

andy verity, bbc news. let's analyse this interest rate rise today.edicting the sort of rise. how high do you think interest rates are going to go in the next few months? so there are two kinds of measures that we _ so there are two kinds of measures that we can — so there are two kinds of measures that we can look at here. i think one thing — that we can look at here. i think one thing that is pretty much is certain— one thing that is pretty much is certain is— one thing that is pretty much is certain is they are going to rise further— certain is they are going to rise further from here. we can look at what _ further from here. we can look at what the — further from here. we can look at what the market expects the bank of england _ what the market expects the bank of england to do, and at the moment they are _ england to do, and at the moment they are expecting the bank of england — they are expecting the bank of england to raise interest rates to about _ england to raise interest rates to about 5%. — england to raise interest rates to about 5%, just

let's get more on this with our economics correspondent andy verity.spondent andy verity. headline is �* shrank the headline is that the uk economy shrank by 0.2% in the past three months, is that better or worse than perhaps had been expected? in months, is that better or worse than perhaps had been expected? in terms ofthe perhaps had been expected? in terms of the level of — perhaps had been expected? in terms of the level of shrinkage, _ perhaps had been expected? in terms of the level of shrinkage, it's - perhaps had been expected? in terms of the level of shrinkage, it's not - of the level of shrinkage, it's not quite as bad as most people were forecasting. the consensus forecast was that the economy would shrink by half a percentage point and we got shrinkage of a fifth of a percentage point. in that respect it wasn't quite as bad as some people thought. nevertheless we have forecast from the bank of england saying this will go on for most of the next two years, as you mentioned in the introduction, to the first half of 2024. which introduction,

andy verity, bbc news, stroud. of england, andrew bailey, has been speaking to mps at the treasury select committee this afternoon, and identified three key areas which have caused inflation to rise. so, obviously, two and a half years ago now the economy was hit by a huge shock in terms of the pandemic, and i think it was obviously necessary and appropriate that monetary policy responded to that. what we have had since then, i think, is a series of supply shocks, essentially, in the uk economy, which have reduced the... particularly when you look at the labour force, reduced the capacity and the supply capacity of the uk economy relative to demand. and to put those shocks in sort of chronological order, there was what we tend to call a supply chain shock in the recovery from covid — that is a global shock, actually, because it reflected goods and services demand and stretched supply chains, particularly involving china. and just as you sort of say, i think we are now seeing the evidence of that shock is beginning

andy verity, bbc news, stroud.utes' time we'll be crossing to westminster where the bank of england governor andrew bailey and other senior officials will be giving evidence in front of the commons treasury select committee. stay with us for that. nato now says the missile that killed two people yesterday in eastern poland was probably fired by ukrainian air defences, rather than russia. moscow had already strongly denied it was responsible for the rocket that hit the village of przewodow in the east of poland near the border with ukraine. 0ur correspondent dan johnson has this report. it looks like this is where the war in ukraine spilled over on to polish turf and claimed polish lives. two civilians were killed here in the explosion yesterday afternoon on this farm close to the border with ukraine. the questions now are what landed here and who fired it. this man lives close by, he heard the explosion and says his family were really scared. he said one of those killed was a farmer, the other worked in the village

andy verity, bbc news.em today about jobs. affecting them. and also talking to them today aboutjobs. because of all this data that has come out today. to dig a bit deeper. i am now joined by david owen was from the 6 first local enterprise partnership. which on the little words, david, it means you help businesses to grow there. and you have people into jobs. can you tell me what the employment situation in gaza sir is looking like now? we employment situation in gaza sir is looking like now?— looking like now? we seen a small reduction where _ looking like now? we seen a small reduction where about _ looking like now? we seen a small reduction where about 2.2% - looking like now? we seen a small reduction where about 2.2% we - looking like now? we seen a small| reduction where about 2.2% we are well below— reduction where about 2.2% we are well below the uk level of an appointment. that is in some challenges in some of our companies in recruiting — challenges in some of our companies in recruiting stop. we

andy verity, bbc news, stroud. fiscal studies, which is a leading economic research group. thank you forjoining us. 11.1%, is that about what you expected, or hire perhaps? i think it's a little higher than many expected but what really matters is the size of the increase was expected to be large, it is a bit bigger than that, we are seeing inflation running at rates we have not experienced for over 40 years and inflation is affecting everyone, it is energy bills, it is food,it everyone, it is energy bills, it is food, it is bills and it is inflation which will affect those who spend more of their budgets on those things more. so who spend more of their budgets on those things more. 50 if who spend more of their budgets on those things more.— those things more. so if you are a pensioner. _ those things more. so if you are a pensioner. if _ those things more. so if you are a pensioner, if you _ those things more. so if you are a pensioner, if you are _ those things more. so if you are a pensioner, if you are disable

andy verity, bbc news. time for a look at the headlines.h out suggest we may not be as serious about online security as we should be. in a list collated by password manager company nordpass, the uk's favourite password was revealed to be... password. 123456 came in second place. among others was liverpool and arsenal. i'm joined now by tech journalist tom wiggins. 6ood good afternoon. surprised by this or not at all? hot good afternoon. surprised by this or not at all? ., ., ., ., , not at all? not at all, really. i think it happens _ not at all? not at all, really. i think it happens quite - not at all? not at all, really. i think it happens quite a i not at all? not at all, really. i think it happens quite a lot, l not at all? not at all, really. i i think it happens quite a lot, people find that these very obvious passwords are used more than any others, really. it is passwords are used more than any others. really-— others, really. it is not that r-eole others, really. it is not that people are _ others, really. it is not that people ar

here's our business correspondent andy verity.turer in walsall makes harnesses the cables and cars and vehicles. it'sjust opened its second factory, but is struggling for the cost of components in raw materials. �* , , , , for the cost of components in raw materials-— for the cost of components in raw materials. �* , ,, , ., , materials. businesses are being held back. obviously, _ materials. businesses are being held back. obviously, we _ materials. businesses are being held back. obviously, we need _ materials. businesses are being held back. obviously, we need customer. back. obviously, we need customer support _ back. obviously, we need customer surlport we — back. obviously, we need customer support. we look at charities, look at opportunities that we have to increase — at opportunities that we have to increase output, increasing output might _ increase output, increasing output might mean we only stand still, batch _ might mean we only stand still, batch in — might mean we only stand still, batch in the current climate, that

with me now is our economics correspondent, andy verity. andy, what is driving this?h. those wholesale energy prices have actually dropped in recent months but they are still well elevated on where they were a year ago and that's what inflation measures, it compares a basket of goods and services now from what it was before. just take electricity bills come up around 60%, oil and gas bills which have more than doubled, and of course those of feed in to other prices. there are a few rays of hope, for example, petrol has come down in recent months, and other costs like shipping, for example, supply has now caught up with demand post—pandemic, and so those prices have been falling as well. but the picture obviously is well. but the picture obviously is we now have the highest inflation we have had since 1981. it we now have the highest inflation we have had since 1981.— have had since 1981. it has a different _ have had since 1981. it has a different impact _ have had since 1981. it has a different impact depending l have had since 1981. it has a i different impact depen

let's talk to our economics correspondent andy verity.firming where we are headed. yes, and in fact the downturn in activity were slightly less bad than some expected. the forecast was that activity at not .5 and it came in at talk not —— not —— 0.2. the recession means all the goods and services we produce, which is saying the same as the economy, is saying the same as the economy, is it growing or shrinking, are we producing more goods and services or less? in normal times, producing more goods and services or less? in normaltimes, economy grows, activity grows, people spend more, but we have occasionally in a growth curve that recedes, that is why it's called a recession, we it tracks back a little bit where the dipping growth. that is what the bank of england things we are now entering. the rule of thumb is we don't call it that until we have had cash until we have had six months of it, nevertheless it is the same phenomenon. activity shrinking. it was interesting hearing jeremy hunt talking about wanting to make the recession shallow

andy verity, bbc news. in the past hour the chancellorjeremy hunt has been speaking to reporters. let's hear what he had to say. what my party has done is put in place a new prime minister, we also have a new chancellor of the exchequer. today's news is going to be very tough for families with mortgages up and down the country, for businesses with loans, but there is a global economic crisis, the imf, the international monetary fund, say a third of the world economy is now in recession and the best thing the government can do if we want to bring down these rises in interest rates is to show that we are bringing down our debt and families up and down the country has to balance their accounts at home and we must do the same as a government. well, labour's given their reaction. shadow chancellor rachel reeves highlighed the impact on both families and businesses. it is incredibly concerning the forecast from the bank of england about the contraction of the economy and that we are already potentially in recessi

let's turn to let's our economics correspondent andy verity is here. the bottom line for all of us asin the years to come. figs everyone is kicked in some way in the years to come.— the years to come. as if that's the most important — the years to come. as if that's the most important thing, _ the years to come. as if that's the most important thing, a _ the years to come. as if that's the most important thing, a lot - the years to come. as if that's the most important thing, a lot of- the years to come. as if that's the most important thing, a lot of our| most important thing, a lot of our viewers, theirfinances, their viewers, their finances, their household viewers, theirfinances, their household finances are the most important thing. and it's not the public finance that is most alarming it's household finances. we are looking at a 7% drop in income over the past two years. that's bigger than anything the softer the global financial crisis. the biggest drop in real incomes and living standards and generations and that follows on from ten years following the global financial crisis m

to stop inflation bedding down in the domestic economy, andy verity, bbc news, stroud.morning. ican i can see you are already among the rum truffles! what can we expect today? rum truffles! what can we expect toda ? , , ., , rum truffles! what can we expect toda?, got and it are 2??? were 80 s: were 80 a f were 80 a f tgf facing 7 ' 80 a f energy cing 7 ' from per from a bit them a bit them a costjit then and cost jiti if then and cost jit those e -r passed to customers, get passed on to us as customers, that inflation the real world. that is inflation in the real world. it was 10.1% in september, we get octoberfigure this the october figure this morning. is when prices went up that is when energy prices went up so we will start to see the effect of that on businesses and households. those of you good at maths will that e! 80 to £2 maths will notice that e! 80 to £2 20 is more than 10%, because some things go more than that. the things go up more than that. the figure for inflation is an average, food is even more steeply. we will all of more steeotu. title will. exotei

our economics correspondent andy verity has been looking at the details of the chancellor's announcementsin recession and will shrink by 1.a% next year. that means less tax rolling in from vat and income tax and the government will spend more in interest on its debt because interest rates are rising and more on benefits as the recession takes hold and unemployment goes up. it is worth remembering that rishi sunak borrowed £318 billion two years ago to cope with the pandemic. but it was manageable, partly because the bank of england were buying the bonds government issues when it borrows money. government borrowing half, no more austerity needed and the economy bounced back. this year it is expected to rise again as we enter recession to 177 billion before it starts to drop back again. the growth expectations and borrowing plans do look credible. they— borrowing plans do look credible. they are — borrowing plans do look credible. they are the stability people are looking — they are the stability people are looking for, but all forward looking forecasts, — looking for, but all forward looki

today and bracing themselves for what the next few months may hold. 0ur economics correspondent andy verityly certain about these _ point? you can never be entirely certain about these things, i point? you can never be entirely certain about these things, that l point? you can never be entirely. certain about these things, that is what the market expectations are but we have seen some signs in the markets this morning that there's some doubt as to whether it will be three quarters or a bit less, half a percentage point, you have seen a sale uk company shares, down 1%, and also you have seen a little bit of a dip in the pound, more than a percentage point, quite chunky. but that may be because the dollar's strengthening because of what their central bank has been saying about where their interest rates will go. we are also down against the euro which does suggest the markets are nervous. not so much about the path of interest rates but what the bank of interest rates but what the bank of england might say about how bad the economic picture looks. iliiui’e’iiii the economic picture looks. we'