still with us is robin niblett, chatham house director. about it, but it does feel like it is always a crunch data. it is always negotiations on the brink. is this time different or are we going to have a last-minute agreement come november? robin: it is different in the sense that on january 1, the u.k. exit the transition period and board arrangements go up. whatever happens, they will either go up with really serious tariff applications for certain parts of the british economy if or they willa deal go up with pretty much open tariffs and a slightly smoother approach if we do get a deal. this crunch will not continue. the crunch will be done one way or the other. theet a deal done before october summit? unlikely. -- will they least be able to use that summit to try to close up some last positions? i think yes. the very least needs to ratify this. i think as long as a deal is done by the end of october, early november, we should be in a position to get everything sorted out by the end of the year. that means these next few days are absolu

. is leslie vinjamuri, the director of us and the americas programme at chatham house.is in hospital. everybody hopes that the president and first lady and all those around them affected by the virus will come through this but it will put a downer on the campaign and has raised a tremendous amount of an sanctity not only because the president has been confirmed as having covid and gone to the hospital but because the messaging coming out of the white house has been very mixed and creating a tremendous amount of confusion about the status of the presidents health and more information overnight about his treatment. the uncertainty it is cast in part about the timing of when he was in fact infected and where he has travelled since. it is thrown up a number of questions and we have had the vice president debates coming up in a few days on the 7th of october and they were meant to be presidential debates on 0ctober meant to be presidential debates on october 15. meant to be presidential debates on 0ctober15. i think the likelihood of those going forward are very unlikely but

picking up on what leslie vinjamuri from chatham house was saying, do you think this personal healthould change anything in this election? i think only, to be very honest, the very smallest of margins. i am amazed and i think we continually have to go back to trump's approval rating with the american public going back his entire presidency, and the interesting thing that people overlook is how stable it is. you're looking at record low numbers of vote rs looking at record low numbers of voters at this stage in the campaign saying that they are undecided. sol think, yes, at the margins it may help or hinder the president but the reality is that ideas about president trump, whether you like him or hate him, are pretty hard baked among the american public and voting has already begun. and with this particular president, it seems like all bets are off and have a lwa ys like all bets are off and have always been off. he has got through other controversies and scandals that many other politicians simply would not have? yes, so, if people are believing that this diagnosis means that the fla

leslie with chatham house in london. appreciate it. >>> health officials are alarmed about a second wave of coronavirus cases engulfing europe, so just ahead, we will take you to lone on to find out about the new restrictions the british are imposing and we will talk about a virus expert to see what he sees of president's trump on mask wearing. that is just ahead, stay with us. memory, focus, accuracy, learning, and concentration. try our new gummies for 30 days and see the difference. i got this mountain bike for only $11. dealdash.com, the fair and honest bidding site. an ipad worth $505, was sold for less than $24; a playstation 4 for less than $16; and a schultz 4k television for less than $2. i won these bluetooth headphones for $20. i got these three suitcases for less than $40. and shipping is always free. go to dealdash.com right now and see how much you can save. what if i sleep hot? ...or cold? introducing the new sleep number 360 smart bed. now temperature balancing, so you can sleep better together. can it he

matt: jim o'neill from chatham house, the chair.one a lot of work in england as well as on wall street. would pre-election stimulus affect assets? we put that question to kristine aquino who leads our live markets in europe. this is bloomberg. ♪ matt: welcome back to bloomberg markets. this is the european open. we are 53 minutes into the session and looking at gains on the continent, slightly stronger than what we see in the city. ftse is up 33 basis points. dax is up up -- the 0.5%. joining us now is kristine aquino who leads the markets live team in europe. gains thatfrom these investors are more sanguine about the covid lockdown issues? and also about the possibility of a solution for brexit? kristine: i think it is probably not so much a sanguine feeling but rather a bit of consolation. giving back some of the declines that we saw last week. thursday was really a sharp decline for european stocks and across the market landscape in europe was a big risk off move. it would be sensible for some assets to start the week off in a mo

she's a professor at chatham house.e saw how covid-19 changed boris johnson's outlook when it comes to covid, not so for president trump. most people hoping the president would have a hospital conversion about covid. they've been sorely disappointed. we just heard he's going to gather and hold events when we don't know what is happening. it's perplexing, he went on fox, almost like reality tv. how does this help him pick up ground against joe biden? >> well, i think the first thing to say is that it's deeply concerning at a time that we all know the numbers, 210 -- more than 210,000 americans have died. but we're just three and a bit weeks out from the election. and so i think the level of uncertainty, of concern, of chaos that this -- that this is lent amongst the electorate can't be understated. we know that donald trump's base, he has that hard core who have stuck with him. but i think for so many americans, they're very worried. we're seeing this in the polls. i think older americans, in particular, are concerned, d

and i thank you very much appreciate an admin staff and chatham house thanks dan. well the men continue protests as well in belarus on rest across the country where thousands of opposition supporters rallied against president alexander lukashenko demonstrators face to face response from security forces that activists have set a midnight deadline for the shanker to step down and the opposition has fought on a chicken off sky is calling for a national strike alexy o'brien reports. this was the police response on the streets of the belorussian capital minsk. in what the opposition is calling state sponsored violence. security forces deployed stun grenades and tear gas on protesters who'd been marching against the president alexander lukashenko. the rally had started peacefully with wide columns of demonstrators fanning out across ments they were heading for the president's home determined to send a message that it's time to go. the march was called by opposition leader on a taken off skya who'd given look into lee end of sunday to resign or face a nationwide general s

to allow to hold who's an associate fellow in the asia pacific program at the think think tank chatham house welcome to the program so 1st up says that china is a predator china says the u.s. is a bully true likers in the middle how do they handle it and i think once again you know sri lanka becoming a familiar playground for international geo political rivalries so these rivalries have played out in the past between india and china and india and pakistan when it concerned heavy best winds in sri lanka when it concerned defense supplies to sri lanka during. that the peak of the conflict in 2 company to 2009 that was started because that was good and so all this to say that this is not need this has happened in the prost there are serious concerns about china heavy investment in structural and economic investment into shila and how that places sri lanka into. severely indebted but they shouldn't it's ability to be off beat your hands so tell us a little bit more about that because that's one of the accusations that the u.s. is so what kind of restraints does that put her under and how long wo

renaud admins who are is a senior research fellow at chatham house he says it will be hard for the government to meet protesters demands. these are not the 1st times we've seen protests in iraq in fact many times since 2003 there have been protests but in the past the elite leaders i mean have been able to kind of either throw economics i.e. giving more jobs to giving people more employment or through ideology using terrorism baathism sectarianism they've been able to kind of manage protests these protests the elite have no answer to they had to use either ideology or get buy them off in that way because it was said the economy is on the brink and iraq and the people are tired of the same political parties and the misgovernance this is a population that has been traumatized after 17 years of a missed opportunity and they want just take it and so. they're calling for accountability they're calling for things that the head ought to give them because doing that would have to undermine the whole system they call them they're calling this revolution that they want the end to that system so it's on

let's now go the thoughts of our guest joining us in london mentally a man is a researcher chatham house and specialist in the horn of africa and the students in her dorm join us horner deputy director for horn of africa and senior analyst for sudan of the international crisis group also in london model is a real she is to dennys activist and a member of this is unease doctors union in the u.k. warm welcome to your. is what we seeing in this new protest movement a continuation of the same pattern that has started. last year but is it different . i think what we're seeing is different. i think what we had yesterday in the protests were 3 different groups of protesters with different sets of demands you had more moderate revolutionaries from the f.s.b. calling for as you report the correction of the transition and to improve the theory waiting economic conditions to implement this reforms to the security services and other institutions and to implement justice reforms well over a year after taking control you also had a 2nd wave of revolutionaries who were mobilized by resistance committee

the m yeah i he let me just bring in this it's i mean he's a horn of africa research fellow at chatham house on it. after a decade of still reaching a successful deal between the 3 countries on the day as well as an outdated or to sharing agreements it's going to be. a requires brave leadership right deescalation of nationalist rhetoric as well as a compromise by or sides to ensure that the gaps in the road between. there's diplomatic success as i actually need it for both regional stability and progress to me he put down has already started to be feel it has egypt negotiate when the dam is being field right now who has been enormous trumpery it from the outset it so that it has very little if any leverage over to get directly which is why it has sought international mediation for quite some time now because it realize this that it alone can't really pressure ethiopia ethiopia has more or less proceeded with talks but been imposing facts on the ground and sort of a fait accompli situation that egypt hasn't been able to to move the needle on. and i think that they realize that which is why th

just go by there's a lebanese activist and former chatham house analyst she says her 3 appointment shows nothing has changed there is a wide feeling after despair especially among the young generation in lebanon and protesters but if you want to keep expectations in check that was bound to happen big gazed says the system is of is a sectarian system that's built on power sharing of all of these people coming in to gather so they all need each other in a way to maintain their kind of business martyrs and their vested interests in the system so we've extracted had to come back and change it is not going to happen overnight in lebanon despite the feeling among many even years that we're back to square one and probably actually we were sent square one because what has happened in one year period and what didn't happen a lot of the policy action could have been taken to me to gape the impact of the financial and economic crisis and that didn't happen and we and was a return of how you cannot extract actual forms so we're going back and we're going down and we're going to get us in lebanon and

tom: you wrote for chatham house last year a brilliant essay on dysfunction in this nation in the americanave clearly observed dysfunction in this process, including what we witnessed last night. how is that american century doing? peter: not too good right now, tom. that's the problem. right now, the country is deeply , deeply polarized and it just has trouble getting things done programmatically. this did not start on donald trump's watch, but it got worse on his watch. frankly, it is going to be a problem. , he isbiden does win going to have a problem on his hands going forward, because the countries very divided. that is the challenge. it is a challenge for what the country is trying to do in foreign policy. frankly, i think the biggest challenge for the next president is to figure out a way of reconnecting what the country tries to do international with its domestic political economy. that is broken right now. tom: peter trubowitz, thank you so much. really wonderful to speak to him. goinge where we are to be on monday with the shift in the conversation. numbing up, an update on the p

right now on the election and some of the oddities of this odd of0, we are joined out chatham house,f wesleyan. thank you so much for joining us. i want to go inside baseball right now. it plays off of the vice presidential candidate for mr. biden. we have two senators from california, the elderly feinstein, and senator harris. does the biden campaign and is vice president biden one senator harris to be visible -- biden want senator harris to be visible at these judiciary hearings? >> that is a very interesting question, and of course, it depends. it is not be visibility. it is what is said, what questions are raised. i think people are always looking to, harris -- looking to kamala harris to ensure that she is the number two, not the number one. in the vice presidential debate, she continually brought the question back to joe, just to reassure the american public that she is on the ticket as the vice presidential candidate, very important in this particular election. i think a lot will come down to the nature of the questioning. verysure she is thinking carefully, being coached very

tom: amy pope from chatham house. we will do a lot more on this here into the sunday talk shows, and on forward. how about the friday talk show? jon ferro will tackle lawrence kudlow in the 9:00 a.m. our here on the economy. you know he has to talk about this better than good claims data yesterday. no doubt lawrence kudlow talking up the president wanting to do better for america. look for that in the 9:00 hour. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ anna: this is "bloomberg surveillance." francine lacqua is off today. numbers out of germany this morning that were very strong. pmi numbers coming through on the german economy, derman manufacturing pmi for october, 58. above 50 means expansion. let's talk about how meaningful the debate is. sonia allowed joins us. -- sonja laud joins us. the turnaround in the euro -- how much credence do you give to this kind of data at the moment? some people suggest it catches timing very well, but it doesn't tell you the extent of rebound or contractions. what are you seeing in the data?

lesliep next, vinjamuri of chatham house. this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. authorities in nice, france are calling it a suspected terror attack. three people were killed in a stabbing at a church. police wounded the attacker whilst arresting him. he is now in a hospital. france is on high alert right now for islamic extremist violence. last month, a terrorism trial began in the 2015 killings at satirical newspaper "charlie hebdo" and a kosher supermarket. hurricane zeta has weakened to a tropical storm as it heads through the southeastern u.s.. it battered new orleans, left 2 million people in the dark, and led president trump to declare an emergency for mississippi. zeta was the fifth hurricane or tropical storm to hit louisiana this year. the supreme court has handed republicans a pair of defeats on deadlines for mail ballots to in states that could decide the presidential election. intact an left extension north carolina and did not fast-track review in pennsylvania. lvmh has agreed to buy tiffany at a r

last hour, i spoke with this about leslie of chatham house in london. take a listen. >> the words of the president speak miles to those who are listening and for q and for permission. so, yes, it's certainly a distraction for him if he's trying to get that 5% of the electorate that hasn't fully decided who they intend to vote for, if he's trying to persuade them this is a president who will ensure security and safety on the streets, you think that's a distraction. it's far more potentially damaging and destabilizing because it sends a signal to a certain group that the president is granting them permission to remain active. >> let's turn to biden now. why this sort of waffly middle ground of not taking a firm position on court packing until later? >> yeah, this has been very interesting and we saw also the vice presidential nominee, kamala harris in the debate with mike pence also deflect this question. they have clearly wanted to watch and see the hearings for amy coney barrett to judge the public sentiment to see how quickly the senate will move towar

she's director at chatham house.let's talk about what we just heard there, the president, covid, sunny times are just around the corner, despite evidence to the contrary. and vice president biden warning us of a dark winter. and that things are going to get worse, we'll have to go back into lockdown. will the president's sunny message resonate in the election's waning days? >> i think for some people, it will. what will we know right now there are very few voters in the united states who don't already know who they intend to vote for. for those people solidly in donald trump's camp, absolutely, people want to hear a good message. as americans have been living with this for eight months, what they want to know that things are going to get better because there's a clear plan to get better because a vaccine is on the way and social distancing is working and they can see the numbers coming down. and that's not what's happening. we're seeing a surge across 38 states. the numbers are devastatingly because of the spread. th

as a senior research fellow at chatham house he says it'll be hard for the government to meet protestors to mountains. these are not the 1st lines we've seen protests in iraq in fact many times since 2003 there have been protests but in the past the elite leaders i mean have been able to kind of either through economics i.e. giving more jobs to giving people more employment or through ideology using terrorism baathism sectarianism they've been able to kind of manage protests these protests the elite have no answer to that they had to use either ideology or get buy them off in that way because it was said the economy is on the brink in iraq and the people are tired of the same political bodies and the misgovernance this is a population that has been traumatized after 17 years of a mistake or an answer and they want just take it and so. they're calling for accountability they're calling for things that the head ought to give them because doing that would have to undermine the whole system they call them they're calling this revolution that they want the end to that system so it's on the gr

based think tank chatham house he says the kremlin strategy of playing down the coronavirus has worked in putin's favor. what we see in the recently is well more direct increase since approval rating. it can be explained by the fact that the majority of russians thought of the crisis is over and they hit their knickers over that's why the kremlin is not that much good to continue or to make managers against the epidemic more restrictive in order not to have those in freezing peculiarity and that's very important they have to fly russians to still feel like they are in the war that's why they should somehow consolidate around the leader around the government of the government and unfortunately when we call on them it doesn't look that's cool. when the understanding. how serious are become a big losses at the scale of 'd ordinary citizens their response can be much more they have to defend the ones we've seen that. plenty more ahead on the news hour including polls have closed for turkish cypriots in the divided island is north we have more on the fragile peace deal that's at stake. lead

based think tank chatham house joining us from london thanks very much for your time so what do you make of this really sharp contrast between some of the pretty extreme measures that are being taken to shield putin from the coronavirus yet a lot of towns and cities in russia are no longer under lockdown restrictions. well there every economic problem just of all the considerations the government is there they should not declare then you log the alms your. 3 outs of the company declined that's why they were playing for our citizens especially for moscow whites and in russia moscow is the major sansa of the disease to be careful to stay at home. violate in your rules but that the same time that not the good will stop it come on the captives yeah how worried would putin be about the effects of lockdown measures because according to russia's levada center that's a polling organization his approval ratings did drop to an all time low a 59 percent when the coronavirus was at its peak but then his approval ratings they've climbed somewhat so now he'd probably be keen not to let that happen aga

deeper on this story by bringing in lebanese activist jessica obeyed who's a former analyst at the chatham housethink tank she joins us by skype from beirut jessica thanks for joining us and of course as we heard there a year ago we were talking about saad hariri having no option to resign in order to bring these protests under control now he's back again sounds like groundhog day for many what's the reaction there what's the response to people hoping that they may have seen the back of sorry last year. so there is a wide feeling after despair especially among the young generation in lebanon and protest but if you and i keep expectations in check that was bound to happen be gased says the system is of is a sectarian system that's built on power sharing of people coming in to go so they all need each other in a way to maintain their kind of business model and their vested interests in the system so we've expected to come back and change it is not going to happen overnight in lebanon despite the feeling among many have been years that we're back to square one and probably actually we were sent squ

sectors which are about to hold is an associate fellow in the asia pacific program at the think tank chatham house and she says there's concern over where the sri lanka will be able to afford to pay the loans. these rivalries have played out in the past between india and china and india and pakistan when it concerned heavy investment into lanka when it concerned defense supplies to sri lanka during the peak of the conflict in 2 company 2009. 171 said so all this to say that this is not need this is happened in the last there off he was concerned about china's heavy investment in infrastructure and economic investment into crime and how that essentially into a severely indebted position and its ability to be all these loans what is going to happen i think there are various scenarios and i think there's a level of what would be considered bullying they could be in defense deals at stake here they could be pressure applied to india because they don't forget that somebody has just landed in china striking. information sharing and data sharing deal with it so they raise a very concerted action on the p

nikolai petrov is a russian expert with the london think-tank chatham house. >> the kremlin is disappointedto stay in the office. >> reporter: for one thing, russia believes republican administrations are less likely to criticize their human rights abuses and silencing activists. but vladimir putin if nothing but pragmatic. he recently signaled he could work with either candidate and publicly praised them both. ♪ >> reporter: one sign that the kremlin is prepared for a biden win is this comedy sketch on russian state tv. it features a digitally manipulated president trump unemployed and looking for work. >> sometimes i'll say, wow, that's going to be a great story. >> reporter: ultimately, most russians want the same thing as their leaders: better relationships with america after november 3rd, no matter who wins the race. before we talk about tax-smart investing, what's new? -well, audrey's expecting... -twins! grandparents! we want to put money aside for them, so...change in plans. alright, let's see what we can adjust. ♪ we'd be closer to the twins. change in plans. okay. mom, are you pai

let's speak now to dr leslie vinjamuri, director of the us programme at chatham house, which is a thinksessment of how the presidential election, early next month, will be impacted by what's happened over the last 48 hours or so? i think it's still four weeks tomorrow until that vote ta kes still four weeks tomorrow until that vote takes place, we know a lot of americans are already casting their ballots a nd americans are already casting their ballots and remember we know that more than 90% of americans already knew even before the debates on tuesday last week, they knew how they planned to vote and i think my very strong suspicion is that those who have already made up their mind will continue to exercise their vote for the candidate they already choose. there is some polling suggests there's been a bit of a sympathy turn of events for the president. but we are still several weeks out and i think the messaging over the weekend which was very, very mixed, has led a lot of people to double down on their prior views of the president. those who see him as having been irresponsible, not en

lebanese activist and former chatham house the only thing she says that hariri is reappointment shows that nothing has changed there is a wide feeling after spare especially among the young generation in lebanon and protesters but if you want to keep expectations in check that was bound to happen because the system is of is a 6 day and system that's built on power sharing of all these people coming in to gather so they all need each other in a way to maintain their kind of business martyrs and their vested interests in the system so we've extracted had to come back and change it is not going to happen overnight in lebanon despite the feeling among many have been years that we're back to square one and probably actually we were sent square one because what has happened in one year period when i didn't have a lot of the policy action could have been taken to me to gauge the impact of the financial and economic crisis and that didn't happen and we and was a chain of haiti you cannot expect actual forms so we're going back and we're going down and we're going to get us in lebanon and ever