look for cyclicals that have pricing power. we have some exposure with cyclicals that have gotten richer and run hard. some of the home builders are 50% over the past six months they have less pricing power, and the valuations look richer we've reduced exposure there if you look at reits, which are deeply discounted because of the 10-year, or life sciences, those are attractively priced. they have pricing power. i think if you look at defense, the fear that i have for investors is if you sit in defense and you wait for a white flag to be flown and say hey, it's now time to get into cyclicals, you'll miss the move. the markets are up 15% since the bottom in october, and the 10-year is only 25, 30 basis points off its all-time high that's telling me that the market is not going back to those levels, it's pricing this risk appropriately. >> you are making the assumption all along here that the stock market was in a sense, quote, unquote, right, and the bond market wasn't telling the right story, because the bond market has moved m

i think cyclicals could fare better than previous during cycle. tom: is that the differentiation between the short-term and longer-term? how much duration do you want to be taking? i know you like fixed income in the u.s.. how much duration do you want? grace: the thing that feels comfortable is to stay short dated one-three years and you can do that and dollars and euros or sterling. taking advantage of high yields. we do think it is worth stepping out adding duration. if you think about u.s. investment-grade credit, getting 5-6% for five-year duration feels quite appealing to us, but i think the comfortable bit because the curve is inverted in the u.s. is a short dated stuff. with our view of lower growth in the u.s. and therefore current levels, fixed income providing some protection in diversification as well. tom: always fascinating insights. optimistic at least on europe versus u.s.. some opportunity maybe if you want to take more risk and push out into duration when it comes to investment-grade credit. still holding onto that view than at t

cyclicals led the charge yesterday. a little bit of profit after that move higher in terms of the breakdown by region, we got the spanish market out performing up 0.3%. sa santandair shares looking for the new strategic plan with the investor day today we will go into detail with that with charlotte ftse 100 is trading down 0.3%. under performing the market. we have plenty of brexit news to digest this morning. from the sectors, we have banks out in front up 0.6% insurance and oil and gas f performing well. we have travis perk ins here in the uk trading sharply lower and the disappointing earnings utilities and real estate and chemicals trading to the down side that is the picture from the sector perspective in europe u.s. futures are looking weaker. all three majors looking at a pull back. yesterday, we saw the u.s. markets actually produce gains nasdaq out performing and tesla stock with a strong bid yesterday. similar to europe. a little bit of profit taking this morning >>> on to the latest post brexit deal the wind

it may rises are further to normalize with long-term cyclical averages over that period of time.you say, last year was really about two things, real estate and sovereigns. other than that, the rest of the book behaved really well. manus: obviously i know the business very well in my region, i'm very familiar with a lot of the exposure that you have to some of the indian community here. do you have any exposure to adani, either directly or through collateral that you need to inform the market about? >> absolutely nothing to inform the market about whatsoever. we don't comment on specific client situations, but overall i would say over the last period of time, or exposures, particularly in india, which many years ago were more challenging for us, have been very dispersed with spanning across many different sectors and businesses. we are very comfortable with our position generally, if the war is anything we are concerned about, i think you can take the absence of saying anything today as saying you are ok with -- comfortable with our positions. manus: are you pausing or stopping le

cyclical value names. look at industrials.hey're only couple percent away from all-time highs, right? financials. we don't like tech as much. more even weight. we like small caps. for a while we don't see recession this year. we would stick with cyclical value and small caps. those are the places we're overweight for the models we run for the carson group advisors. charles: industrials, so, so, this year. i think people will be surprised since the october low. i think number one, number two. >> exactly. charles: quiet, strong rally. ryan, thank you so much, my friend. appreciate it. >> thank you. charles: all right, folks my next guest was profiled in market watch earlier this month and discussed a different take on long term. bring in defiance cio sylvia jablonski. i know your etfs are all about the future, right? the future will be here, in fact comes here sooner rather than later. seems to me with that in mind the goal buy and hold. the theme being warren buffett kind of stuff. >> yeah. absolutely. great to see you, charles

we know the cyclicality of that. steve is right on the comps this is not a stock i get excited about. >> a 9% doesn't hurt the pop in the stock after hours. guy? >> it's not representative of this move, without question. we've seen much larger shortages. this stock at its trough was $38 and change forts about the lows we saw. this stock traded at levels we haven't seen you talk about a complete overshot, a stock that would, by the way, a year earlier was trading $500 so for perspective, where we are now effectively gets us to the lows we saw in the earlier spring this is where we should sort of flame out, i would think, because to tim's point, the best days for roku i think are clearly behind them. even with the precipitous help, it's still an expensive stock. >> let's get to cisco now, shares also higher guidance for the current quarter coming in above expectations frank holland joins us with more. >> chuck robbins said they were continues to ease for the company. beats in both segments, and a beat over margin estim

david: cheap cyclicals, and expensive cyclicals.yclicals -- and inexpensive cyclicals. you could look at some in the consumer area. we can think about some of the capital goods companies as well. they would be beneficiaries of cheap cyclicals. financials is another big area. once rates peak, probably sometime middle of this year, that would be an indication that financial stocks could do better. annabelle: it is interesting, though. you look at those moves on the s&p 500 overnight. there is so much bearish sentiment over the past few days. what sort of reception are you getting to that case of flat growth for the s&p 500 over the course of this year, when it seems like there are so many risks tilted to the downside? david: interesting questions received from multiple client meetings at our conference. if the market rallies 10 or 15% from these levels, what would be the area of surprise? there's a more bullish tilt to the investor profile and the questions that are being asked. a general observation would be, having gone through euro

at it on a valuation standpoint, 10 times pe, 3.8% yield, a lot of companies that are more in the cyclical area, so we still like some of the china reopening plays, but also banks, insurers, consumer plays and some of the cyclicals. so, i think the u.k. market is a little forgotten. we have to remember some of the backdrop, as catherine man was saying, some of the macro brexit situation is interesting with the additional impact of brexit, which is estimated to about 100 billion pounds. francine: so, what does that mean in terms of do you buy anything in this u.k. environment, do you buy something that looks cheap? is that domestic, or a company that is perceived as domestic, but is much more outward looking? virginie: for quality income strategies based in the u.k., we like some of the banks, insurers, some of the cyclicals. if you are not positioned in that already, what you have to look at is stock by stock, where do you see attractive valuation for long-term? but the u.k. is quite exposed to china, and some of those asian revival plays, so i would definitely have some of the u.k. in my

how do you think the cyclical impact here plays into what you're talking about in washington >> well,inly a national security element to this we've heard the president talk about the fact that javelins being sent to ukraine can't be manufactured in large order to replenish the stockpile here because they can't get those chips. of course, now we have a glut of chips in this country. but there is a belief within the administration that, perhaps, some of this funding, once it starts to get out the door, that application process opens next week and the money will start flowing later this year, that perhaps that will end or at least smooth out the boom and bust cycle we've seen the semiconductor industry go through to essentially start incentivizing these companies to not lay people off, to maintain certain levels of investment, and to avoid sort of this, you know, rush, rush, rush, produce, produce, produce, then you have an inventory glut and then they have to take some actions we've seen in recent weeks unclear if $50 billion is the ticket to do that for an entire industry but that cert

they looked at that set of earnings who said, this is more cyclical versus fundamental. what is the story with the rest of these names and it's about the e going forward. the earnings and we're expecting big declines i mean, nearly 90% earnings decline for amazon, year over year 40% for meta so the street is really going to be looking at that profit margin for more on the street's big tech outlook, you just heard our conversation, what are you looking for in the two days ahead, and what are the implications for the market? do you think it's going to be like a microsoft, even if they're not great, the market will give them a pass, because these are fundamentally good businesses >> i think it's going to come down to a couple of key themes over the next couple of days number one, are businesses getting better off the bottoms we saw in the second half of 2022 for us, we would put meta in that category, where while you saw weakness at snap last night, we believe some of the investments that meta has made over the last two years are starting to bear fruit in q4 and rolling int

then you want to be in a cyclical like semiconductors, right? want to be. >> well, it is back to the football game karen is coaching, you have a case where you probably have four different quarters where the economic cycle is going and you have four different market bases, too with semis they're such early cycle companies we also saw them fall under pressure a lot faster they were the ones with the inventory glut they are the ones that are going to work through that, that's one of the reasons people are encouraged by amd. the question is, even the second half strength you see is it more reacceleration after working through a terrible headwind? it is not all systems go because if it was you would be buying them all now amd is up 17% in the last sessions i talked about how semis have performed on the s&p that makes sense on a level. this is kind of the hallmark for it i think you are going to get -- it is four quarters of football, and i think we still have more to play. >> nvidia is now trading at 18 times revenue. it is trading at 50 times forwa

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we have had some cyclical exposure but have stayed away from growth.hat was certainly painful at certain points in january. we think that is the right call. the earnings trends have been most acutely negative in the growth stocks space. we had a lot of the rally was a reversal of tax loss selling that happened last year. without the idea of a quick fed pivot was unlikely to materialize. we think when you see that eventually comic slow down, growth stocks -- i would also put high-yield bonds in this area, those are the two areas that seem to have unreasonable prices for us and would lead the market on the downside. we have avoided those areas. we are happy with our value. overweight. we were worried when that overweight was under pressure last month. >> we are out of time. thank you as always for joining the show. coming up, we continue the stock conversation. we will look at the most recent report of his firm and take a look at the equity market. stick with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ [office sounds] ♪upbeat music♪ ♪♪ ♪when the day that lies ahead of me♪

germany is a cyclical market which is exposed to the china reopening.continue to like the energy sector we think oil prices will move higher and that should benefit the defenses, consumer staples and healthcare those are hedges against a further slowdown in the u.s. cyclical exposure to the economies starting to recover and also some of the defenses to hedge against the risk of u.s. in recession later this year. >> kiran, thank you for joining us stra strategist from ubs. >>> let's look at wall street and how it ended the week on friday a mixed bag. the dow managed to eek out gains. up .40%. you can see the nasdaq ended the session down .60%. s&p down .30%. this on concerns that the hot inflation data that came out last week and cpi and ppi and jobs report the week before all will cause the fed to take a restrictive approach on future rate hikes that is not a positive for the sector as we saw in some of the price action on friday today, u.s. markets are closed for holiday. investors will wait for the fed's meeting minutes due on wednesday. recent commen

which of those two do you think is more cyclical? where do you think you're going to see it first? mobility business in past recessions. mexico, brazil, it isn't particularly cyclical because it supply and demand tend to balance each are out. during recessions we had a lot of drivers coming into the platform were looking for work. we haven't gone through a recession with eats yet. restaurants, groceries tend to stay resilient. we are actually pretty confident going into any kind of environment. uber tends to be a bit of a countercyclical business and also we have the balance of mobility and delivery. mobility does really well when the world opens up. if there is a shutdown like we saw last year, delivery does really well. we think we can actually be that all weather company. when a lot of other tech companies are falling short, we continue to perform elevated levels. guy: talking about the tech companies, if we do see a cyclical downturn, do you think you will take share? often the more dominant art of the market does see share flowing toward it. we are going to have lyft numbers l

i'm not going to say this is a typical of a workout after a cyclical bear like we went because nothingtypical right now. you're not looking at typical capital markets re-pricing something? that we haven't seen in a long time for us the risk/reward is not bad. it's not great. >> how can it not be bad if you point out what rates have been doing? some are suggesting, as i read earl, this marco kolanavik, the fade the bond equity divergence. bonds are telling the right story and equities haven't woken up thus risk/reward for stocks aren't that great? >> i ask the question what haven't equities moved up to yet in the moves last year indicate where earnings deteriorations will be? maybe, and right now we're backing and filling because investors are trying to reposition portfolios for the next cycle, not necessarily the cycle we left so there's a lot of room to go there and the big market cap sectors is what's pushing pressure down. when you look at the old economy areas, the market cap there isn't as large so we can't get out of our own way so it's a backing and filling type of environment,

that means you stick with cyclicals. charles: wait it out in the cyclicals. likely you're cut off a lot of christmas parties this year. i will let you know about the fox business party. it ain't as grand as goldman sachs and other ones but at least you have friends. >> thanks, charles. charles: folks, we have to pick up the arms race on artificial intelligence it is heating up. jessica hinsky joins us at 2:50. how you can make money that is the most important part. how much would you pay for this, 1957 mercury marquis. sold for $13,000. used car prices are going up again. that is a huge red flag. we have economist joe lavorgna next to help us hash it out. ♪. ...will remain radioactive for years to come. well, thank goodness. it's time for the "good news of the week." and, boy, do we need it. [ chuckles ] well, this safe driver saved money with the snapshot app from progressive. -how do you feel? -um, good? he's better than good. he got rewarded for driving safe and driving less. sorry, barb, just to confirm, this is the feel-good news of the week? this is wha

we're not counter cyclical we've got to buy back shares through the cycle.10 billion a year in shares we have virtually no net debt at this point we've got a lot of debt capacity we've got a lot of cash. we can use that to sustain the buyback even if free cash flow won't support it we can do that off the strength of our balance sheet so we've designed the company to reward shareholders through the cycle becauses you said, it's a long cycle, commodity business. >> you know where i stand so let me ask youheast question if the levy a windfalls profits tax against you, will they give you money when oil drops below 50 >> history would say that that's unlikely, jim. >> i think we should leave it at that that's mike wirth, chairman and ceo of chevron "mad money" is back after the break. >> announcer: coming up, does a sell-off in this stock spell opportunity? we'll cross that bridge when we come to it, next ♪♪ we all have a purpose in life - a “why.” maybe it's perfecting that special place that you want to keep in the family... ...or passing down the family busine

however, defensive sectors have not worked this year it is more cyclical sectors that are working ito me like the markets right now are not pricing in a recession, instead the markets are pricing in a soft landing some sort of maybe a pivot later in the year what is your take on that dichotomy? . i agree completely, markets is not pricing in a recession, i think that that is the biggest -- uh you know, misleading factor that we're getting from the market right now because in our view, we have to remain defensive stay with sectors like healthcare, like financials, utilities, they have to focus on dividend yields here is good news bonds are looking much better, in comparison to the last year when bonds and stocks were down at the same time, higher needles are actually bringing tremendous value to investors, go high quality bond corporate municipal find that a little bit of safe haven not, exiting equities we think% time to include quality of the investment portfolios pivot to seekers that are going to be positioned well during the time of market recovery because as we know, the leaders

continues to drive, but the dynamic here about where the higher risk parts of the market, higher cyclicality is doing well, we may have a fund survey out that reinforces the trend and pain is higher and in a place where there's my camera. tells you we're in a place where actually if you think about where cash positions are and that although a lot of us continue to talk about how earnings need to really figure out where they are in valuation, the market seems to want to go higher and i would argue that it can go higher. if i look at where we are in terms of technical levels and in terms of the earnings that continue to come in better than expected for this quarter even though they're not great. >> dan >> so i guess we have to figure out which is the next bout of data that could be hot and be less optimistic and steve kind of said this i think this is kind of important, if the consensus is we'll have fed funds above 5% and tim's point we won't see the cuts that were being priced in a few months ago, how does the economy deal with that how does basically how does that be dealt with with earning

gets me excited as an apple analyst today remember, maybe five years back, apple was viewed as a cyclical hardware company i think what we've learned over the last five years is that having a services business that's $70 billion to $80 billion, represents more than 30% of gross profit dollars, makes it more like a platform, not necessarily a cyclical hardware company i think the subscription is the next evolution of this model and really why that's important is because it gives, you know, consumers and analysts better visibility into cash flow generation, more stability in financials, and when you look at peers, staples peers, streaming services, software subscription companies, they all trade at a premium to where apple trades at today, roughly 22 times our fiscal '24 eps so my argument is when you put on the lens of, hey, apple is more of a subscription company than a cyclical hardware company, that can unlock value, resize it at about a trillion dollars of market cap. for me, that's my goal, about $235, my gold case valuation, that incorporates the shift in subscription or at least the

boom you've had a cyclical bust and then at the bottom toward the bust you get religion. what's religion? you cut costs, pay dividend, become much more conservative. we're much more modest in terms of what we're trying to do and that's the message you've heard from iger and will hear from salesforce >> is it blasphemy the stocks are up to the degree they are to start the year is it tax loss selling is there legitimacy to it? >> it's a great question i think for certain names but not the sector overall coming out of a bear market bottom you have the prior leadership leading again and that's tech. what we believe as we go on with the recovery, scott, new leadership and it's probably not going to be tech, but at the end of the day you want to still have that tech exposure not the entire sector. >> call of the day, a downgrade for one of the big banks saying the stock is expensive and overvalued it's a call to sell it steve weiss owns it, which is why he's going to call in with his take next. you'll always remember buying your first car. but the things that last a lifetime li

you can see that there are probably cyclical changes in the chest. clear if i counter with breasts are no longer cancer for me, anyway, we go through genetics and go through the fact to the risk, examine, grope. if the chest hurts diffusely, we don’t even really look, if the pain is realized, then we do research. which up to 30 years we do. breast ultrasound, because the mother of counts does not see anything until 30 from 31 to 39, we do the same ultrasound and plus or minus mammography. she is also uninformative young. aged women have dense breasts, she's solid seals. and how do you regard them is very difficult 40, plus we do both mammography and ultrasound. why else ultrasound ultrasound shows cysts, and cysts, as a rule, painful kitty - this is the chest cavity. they can be painful, uh, well, and still often behind the pain is, of course, a fibroadenoma, before they throw it now. here, i'll go to what a boring lecture. here you had a question. hello. and my name is milana ugu and my great-grandmother is a woman. klava rewarded with large breasts

eh, this, and i repeat, if it is a complex technical and cyclic sport, that is , you need to work hardherefore, of course, some kind of core for the future life. eh, he gives to children. many belarusian biathlon stars have passed through the snow sniper and now little athletes already have a good example before their eyes . seventeenth and 19 february. further sports reviews immediately after with the news of the minsk region daria tarasova, she is already in the studio. what to share good afternoon lyudmila building up the economic potential of the belarusian-iranian cooperation and growth in trade, we will consider the example of the minsk region riga weather contrasts, how not to be trapped in an ice trap in a few minutes we will tell on our air. thanks, we'll see you at 5:00 pm. see you. dynamo minsk continues the away series in the khl and will end it today in a duel against barysabi, the teams are fighting for tickets to the playoffs in their conferences , the minsker is in eighth place. west three points ahead of spartak in a friendly segment of the squirrel, the situation is m

it's all cyclical. it always comes back. that's right for fannie packs, packs and neon lights to come back. i have my moment. okay? i love it. uh next to now, hirings, non stupid people. wait what cantinas pizzeria in columbus, ohio, is causing a sensation both in town and on social media for its help wanted sign jaden dunnigan, who's been working in the family shop for years, says it's been hard to find good help, saying people just don't want to work in, says they posted a sign mostly in jest and assigned from a few exceptions is actually earned them more customers, she says. they encourage the community to stop in for a slice or for an application. i mean, i would go there if i knew that non stupid people work there. i mean, i'm with you like marketing. i mean, we're talking about it exactly that it is that they fill the position. i don't know. hopefully pretty soon they rejected me next to the wild boar attack at a ski resort. what snowboarders got more thann this wild boar charged out of the woods and started to attack

these chip names still have to deal with cyclical trends., take out auto for a moment, supply gluts, capital expenditure cuts from meta and the list continues, aren't buying as many chips, while trying to figure out how much inventory to have on hand so we avoid a shortage we saw during the pandemic in other words, a.i. is not an overnight phenomenon, but it will take time to ramp up and putting into question the stock jump that we've seen thus far is the highlight. >> it's interesting the short-term surplus but potential long-term deficit while gelsinger feels like he's stepping on the gas and brakes at the same time, i imagine. >> begs into question every run up we've seen thus far he's an example with the foundry level. tsmc did post gains in january with their sales report, but overall they are cutting back and spending more in japan and in the united states so there's a lot of these questions to i guess questioning why the run up has happened quickly and if it's justified in the near term. >> who is left out >> well, it depends on the e

this is the cyclicity, it is reflected in fashion.hionable slr cameras, and everyone decided that he was a photographer, but everyone bought camera, but not bought to take pictures, bought about the war and bought to drive the same. yes, and the car is still lying, a slr camera. that is also big. yes, she, too, then buy- many girls, then, uh, wanted to do some kind of creativity. the easiest way for me was to buy a dslr and take pictures. and by the way, she took a lot of pictures of me there. she once photographed. and you yes, she was a fan of the brothers grimm, she did not immediately become my wife. so she went to a concert , photographed me and then became my wife. here is such a story. these are yes, i got married. well , this is often the topic of marrying a fan, it turns out your husband. my husband is an alternative musician, originally. while still at the factory, i heard his group, where he sings, one might say. it was he who married a fan, everything is clear. javadxan so perhaps even so, too, interpret. maybe so i heard

for advertisers so on that side of the platform, there's value to be realized cutting costs is a cyclical but it's going to need to articulate its parts and look at experience to see a rebunld in gluchlkt will probably take a little bit of time. >> daniel, you're mentioning innovation le we've seen meta be hit, not this year, but last year when it comes to ai. >> i think we'll see the user numbers remain quite healthy overall. that i could be impacted by system of the cyclical head wynns everyone is facing i think the bigger story in terms of trying to leverage artificial intelligence both in their core social platform to drive better user experiences in areas like short form video and for advertisers on the other side to drive a better signal so advertisers get better value the bigger story or longer term story around this shift to the metaverse and really with ar and br devices that's going to take time and require a shift in the business model. >> sara, what do you think about the chief investment officer blogging just a bit? do you think they're focused the right areas, or do they nee

health care stocks would outperform but it has been the cyclicals that have done well.nd what is happening then. we have banks and central banks in both of these narratives will be fascinating. deutsche, ing out tomorrow. then you have ferrari and shell. in terms of the diversification, the european majors have been trying to put in their business plans, has at work? shell has gone into gas, that's paid off but renewables is questionable. you have the main event, ecb and the bank of england. bank of england has the potential to generate a bigger surprise tomorrow. maybe you only get 25 or not anything or a signal that they won't do anything further from here. the ecb feels like it is more aroused. what lagarde says about what comes next is the real story. yes, we will get 50 tomorrow but there is certain data that it is slowing down. and maybe christine lagarde has to, as you say, give abode to the dogs. i'm not sure what adele would do with the bone. alix: it's hard to say. let's go to the boe decision and the challenges. dr. jumana saleheen is vanguard chief economist

cyclical v with a formal stage set, talks between western allies, began in earnest offstage. with the next step to bolster ukraine against russia's illegal war are being decided. all right, well for more on this said, joining us now from the munich security conference is our chief political correspondent, nina has a nina, great to see you. so we so many heavy weights speaking on the 1st day. what's that i for you. i'll definitely, the speech from the ukranian president followed me as a lensky who gave his address via video link, where he reiterated his plea that the west needs to keep up its support for ukraine . and he said, ukraine is not just defending itself. it's also defending freedom at large democratic principles, and he also had a message for the international audience saying that rata wouldn't stop by ukraine's borders. so if russia is successful in ukraine than it will go somewhere else. and the french president emanuel, my call very much also stressing this message, saying that now is not the time for negotiations. the ball is very much in vladimir putin court. he

a mission shared by a string of films at this year's berlin on a cyclic, now with some other stories making headlines around the world. and is really missile strike on damascus to capitol of syria killed at least 5 people early on sunday morning. that's according to syrian state media. a building was destroyed in an area known for syrian security installations. israel has repeatedly targeted syrian underwriting forces, as well as has block militants in syria. former us president jimmy carter has entered hospice care at his home in georgia. the 98 year old has survived a series of health scares in recent years, including cancer and repeated falls. after leaving office in 1981, he gained renown for his public service achievements and diplomacy earning a nobel peace prize in 2002 sports now and barn unique travel to mentioned. glad back with a familiar face in their starting 11 goalkeeper, yon zona, joined byron from glad back in the winter transfer window. glad bout hadn't lost the bavarian in for competitive games. blood bar vans were dressed for carnival, hoping the foals could keep

rod to a person any sport, but biathlon, uh, and i repeat, it is both technically difficult and a cyclics, you need to work hard here, therefore, naturally, some kind of core for the future life. eh, he gives to children. many belarusian biathlon vigilantes have passed about the snow snipers, the leaders of the belarusian team anton and dinara smolsky will go to the open camp. champions of the race starts in three adult groups are scheduled for the nosyans of the nations and the nineteenth people on the orthodox calendars. today the tomb is one of the 12 head church saints of yakutia , symbolizing the sister of the old woman and new and zaparel call the saints being laid. i'm to my sister nata drills my sister and belarusian bell ringers. the festival is not drunk from the heart of soligorsk, we play personal calls, the forum , the same procedural coase for everyone. here is belarus soligorskaya our correspondent natalya bardiskoy uvesiligorsk, reminded of the bell-rings from noon to midnight from the west to the exit along the perimeter of the regional center , the music rang the church

when we hit the brakes very hard, that is going to kick in at the same time some of those negative cyclic dynamics about rising savings and excess industry -- inventory and so forth are kicking in. manus: that was larry summers on inflation and the challenge it poses for the fed. we get the latest readings from the central bank, pce, this week , along with the minutes from the less we can. -- last meeting. my guest is with me. you have larry summers morning about having to hit the brakes very hard, just as some of the long cyclical lags probably kick in. do you think the market -- and you would say the equity market is way too positive in its scenario. listening to larry, what is the risk, what is the -- what does the brake slam look like to you from the fed? >> i think markets are ignoring the risk. if it were to happen, i would expect equity markets would tank easily, 10% or 20% in a short period of time. i think that is underpriced at the moment. the fed might continue to hike, and might have to get back to larger hikes. manus: what is it that provokes such a big response? is it 5.5%,

the things we are more cautious about our cyclicals like tech hardware.n addition to that, they are very euro-dollar sensitive. farmers interesting, it is dollar sensitive. it is the defensive we think will be disappointing, it is expensive. it is underperforming already and that becomes a balance for some of the defensive sectors we would prefer to be long. a little bit of a balance is the regime shifts from downturn to recovery, all the way through this year, without one totally dominated the environment. kailey: gerry fowler, we have to leave it there. thanks for joining us from ubs in the london studio with guy. this is bloomberg. ♪ lisa: time for the bloomberg business flash, i am lisa mateo. u.s. is preparing to ramp up pressure on russia as the one-year anniversary of the invasion of ukraine approaches. the biden administration plans to impose a 200% tariff on russian-made aluminum, that would effectively end u.s. import of the metal from russia. the tariff would be imposed this week. nissan has agreed on a landmark deal to reshape their alliance.

domestic cyclicals is where we see good value.riti: we didn't even get to the options part, we thank you as always. more on the show ahead but let's get to first word news. mark: in georgia, a special grand jury investigating election interference by former president trump and his allies said it believes perjury was committed by one or more witnesses in their final report. the jurors concluded there was no widespread fraud that would have led to overturning president biden's win. a judge has said details about who the grand jury said should be charged will remain sealed for now. inflation at the wholesale level in the united states rebounded last month by more than expected. the producer price index jumped zero point 7% last month, the most since june. that could push the federal reserve to go ahead with further interest rate hikes in the coming months. there is a report that russia has lost at least habits tanks since it invaded ukraine almost a year ago. that comes from the u.s. based institute for strategic studies. it says rus

eh , i repeat, if it is a complex technical and cyclic sport, that is, you need to work hard here, therefore, of course, some kind of core for the future life. eh, he gives to children. many have passed through the tenderness of the sniper belarusian biathlon stars now in small athletes already have a good example in front of the eyes of the leaders of the belarusian team anton and dinara smolsky. hello to the opening of the three age group racing map scheduled for february 17th and 19th. and this was the sports environment, before meeting in belarus 1. invite igor to us for tea, drink with cake after work victoria hairstyle for you. stunned medusa gorgon in the office just talking about our precious leader's engagement. not a problem at all. we are going on an unforgettable journey through our country. original and of course, the oldest city. belarus years it was called belarusian odessa such. yes, in bobruisk we will introduce you to the major interesting and most beautiful cities of belarus. novogrudok castle, or rather, what is left of it is the city’s brand of accurate data on how the a

alix: is it cyclical, and will not be worthy, wants to be? kiran: it is a diverting set of economies. oddly, we are talking about it as a year of inflections. that inflection point is coming quite early for emerging markets, but we see a growth impulse from china and the end of winter boosting growth. in the united states, growth is held at a much better level than anyone expected, but it is likely that the fed will have to tip the economy into a recession to get inflation down. you have a slowdown coming later. it is quite a diverting picture to the global economy. that is why activity makes sense at this point. dani: how do you think about this bond market, specifically duration. on one hand, yields are juicy and there has been a lot of demand, but we are in a process of pricing out cuts. will you want to be in the long and at all? kiran: we think the 10 year will come down, and we are looking around 3% by the end of 2023. that is as investors start to price in the risk to the u.s. recession. what we seen in the nearer term is that people a

it is leaving because it is a cyclic thing. we swallowed freedom, so save freedom. the czech world has also been swallowed to the end, and in general, it ends again. we have come to the inequality that was 100 years ago. that is, we returned to exactly the same situation years ago. politics is unstable, nobody knows what will happen tomorrow. this is where leadership is needed. that putin is almost the only leader who is able to simultaneously talk to saudi arabia and iran from turkey, and in the end even the us this is still proof of his political and strategic genius. let's not delude ourselves with the truth that today in europe there are no leaders with such a vision with such a cohesive course. this is a rarity in resolving some controversial situations and, as a rule, its participation of the countries of the world. usa however, russia has always irritated since the time of tsar ivan iii in vasily iii , then the holy roman empire of the german nation twice tried to draw russia into the sphere of western influence. russia was seen as a powerful reserve in germa

history itself is cyclical. we are now on the next round. this is how much such an experience, in your opinion, is already interesting to other countries and did not . we are, in principle, legislators political fashion, or is it our slavic tradition, which, as it were, is not necessarily to be spread among others by developing your thoughts, because, indeed, we have already hosted six all belarusian people's assemblies and constantly with each new event. we improved we developed this idea. although at the heart of this idea were. here, remember the mottos under which all the belarusian people's assembly passed for a strong, prosperous belarus, a state for the people. our example is sure to be an example for many states, those that fight and defend their sovereignty and those who believe that the interaction between uh, civil society and the state is the path of socio-economic development, so we will be a model for many states. well , for example, the law on the foundations of civil society. we are actually pioneers. very few countries - thi

, then more often it is still not oncology, but some functional stories, especially since it is cyclicalmendation about total is connected with this. yes , a woman begins to examine the mammary glands with a certain age. there 40 years. we recommend mammography and we now have mri screening and we asked two things. first. how often do you leave the gym and have you had increased loads in recent weeks, because when stretched , overloading the pectoralis major muscles can translate. to local stasis of the lymphatic yes system and soreness, and secondly, we ask to show and put on the bra underwear that the patient uses and evaluate how well this underwear is correctly selected and conceived, we see that the bone, which rests directly on the edge of the glandular tissue. it causes local soreness , it just rubs and in this case this issue is solved by simply changing, uh, the selection of underwear. and this is a very important fact, and even american researchers write that almost 70% of nostalgia. you can adjust it to the level of underwear, a huge thank you to tatyana viktorovna and for rev

that's right. >> at the same time people should recognize you have such stickiness and you're not cyclicalindeed. if you want to pick up a coke or beer, we're right in there that's the reason you enjoy it. >> well, now, you also are going to be one day i think the key to green hideydhydrogen, once we gt down forelectricity, you'll be there, correct >> we have great technology around that. we feel great about technology it's five to seven years ago for scaleup and when that happens, we'll have a point of inflection where costs will be competitive. >> i don't want to be too nitty gritty but you had an event that threw investors off with this delisting. now it will be much cleaner and i think that maybe you can just discuss that there was some confusion but that confusion will be ended soon. >> it's simple, jim, we were dual listed in two whexchanges,i frankfort and new york and we were hitting the cap every other day. the better you perform, the more you hit the cap -- >> that's the index cap. >> that's right. index selling. so essentially, all we did was put a proposal through the board to

cyclical turning points in the economy are difficult and our projection is with the cyclical turning point with the week economy and a rebound. there is so much going on across different sectors of the economy that lynn's -- linda --lends uncertainty. with energy, ukraine, and so on. when you look at the budget outlook the chapter two is the economy we start with the budget and projections then do the economy. the way we wrote it was here is our projection we are -- here is what we think as economists. and then the next section has dozens of uncertainties which is a sign of the times. heather: for your deficit projections of what the picture looks like or -- for 2023 you are now projecting that spending will be higher than revenues by $1.4 trillion. about $400 billion more than you did before. these numbers are all very big it is hard to keep track area $1.4 trillion is what you are thinking now. i was surprised to see in immediately got note from wall street analyst and goldman sachs who are sort of inking that you all were too pessimistic and the number could be smaller. i was wond

but unlike some of the other companies you named, it doesn't really have the same exposure to the cyclicality years. >> the shares as you managed reflecting that as well this year thank you very much. kayla tausche. >>> let's get to another biden administration initiative now. the student loan forgiveness, supreme court justices today reportedly sounding skeptical the constitutionality of that program, which means your federal loan payments could resume after being paused during the pandemic sharon epperson is here with what borrowers should be doing to prepare. >> well, kelly, the supreme court has indeed called into question more than 40 million federal student loan borrowers will have at least a portion of their debt canceled. while we wait for the court's decision there are important steps that borrowers should take now. first, borrowers should contact their student loan servicer to get the latest information on how much they owe, their repayment plan and when their next payment could be due. there are also income driven repayment plans. if a borrower is not enrolled they should apply now

this could be the huge start to a better scenario and stocks over bonds and cyclical over defensives and technology were more even and we're not sure tech will lead for several years but if it's going up, that's nice. there's more participation. liz: more participation. kenny, jay powell to me, it's almost like a roar shack test. i saw a red tailed hawk, osprey and maybe andy and ryan see a parakeet or sparrow, is there always a trade or not? >> no, i definitely think there's a trade and i think in this case, if you are looking way, way beyond, ryan said it. ryan said they're up and up significantly so far. if they're right, those names will continue to outperform in that space. so those are names that you want to look at. liz: look at want, the want etf. this is consumer discretionary with a looter of name -- lot of names of things you don't need to buy but want to pitch amazon is in there and amazon is looking pretty good here, up 2.25% and some of these holdings, it's a very nice three month move for consumer discretionary. >> right. yeah, it is. remember, consumer discretionary w

but for me, i don't like when an economyist uses the word feel, by the way, but structural versus cyclical people are not having the job skills to fill open jobs, how do you interpret that? >> i'm not 100% sure but will posit this view. despite the fact that the unemployment rate is low, the reality is in the last few years people have left the labor force and the reason they have left the labor force is that government benefits without work requirements, and government benefits pay more and more. so it doesn't pay to work, sandra. and i think that's part of the structural imbalance. you have a huge demand for workers, people are leaving the labor force, that's why these participation rates and the employment ratio is low. you have lost 7 to 7.5 million people so that would cover a lot of the demand for labor. so that may be what powell is talking about. >> john: quick local story. our local cvs pharmacy, always a soviet-style line in front of the prescription drug counter, and that's because they don't have enough people. they have interviewed person after person after person, only manage

it can be modern networks or networks that are in the cyclical area.re in the country and they are built and model networks and the irrigation conditions , the right consumption method and the production conditions have been very suitable and optimized . there is a program of the 13th government covering nearly 116 thousand hectares if we can do it in the 13th government, the reason is that we supply in the field of agriculture, there must be line production, supply to production, production based on productivity, based on consumption management, based on appropriate cultivation patterns, which fortunately, the agricultural road in this regard they had special features and according to each location in terms of weather and temperature conditions, they presented a suitable cultivation model that can help in agricultural use . we are in contact with the network from the next the development of the issues of modern death and innovation that we have is to be able to save, god willing, the amount of water used in agriculture by about 12 billion cubic meters

i think early on in the a block we talked about this a lot of us as it relates to cyc cyclicality ofership is in qualcomm and obviously nvidia as it relates to nvidia for us, they've got caught up in the ai trade. the stock is up 55%. it's an expensive stock trading close to 70 times. from an innovation perspective and where they sit, they are just further ahead and they are well positioned to take advantage of what's happening in artificial intelligence. on qualcomm's end, i think there's been an inventory issue for a lot of the sector and i mentioned this earlier some softness on the hand set business, a slight miss on revenue. qualcomm is up 20% and they're diversifying revenue here. i still like semis and tech in general. there's still opportunity in the space and i like it more than large cap tech >> rob, the stock is down 6.5%, that's tsm does this make you think twice >> we own a lot in the space, and i wouldn't be surprised to see many of the names give up their goens for a bit. if you own anything within semis focus on capital light businesses we own the equipment manufactur

you can win regardless of the cyclicality, how much is uber standing out as part of a duopoly, how muchs? mandeep: you will see their pressure for a company like lift which has to show profitability, free cash flow and it has not come at the expense of expansion. lift cannot invest as much in supply acquisition as uber. with this at a point where it has to show incremental cash flow improvement and that is a hard position. doordash is somewhere in the middle. that is what i mean by the smaller vendors like instacart, there was a time where they were attacking these niche markets. that will fade away and you are at the point of consolidating all types of delivery whether it's groceries, food, any sort of convenience delivery. that is a good spot for the companies. jonathan: you google, you don't being. lisa: they're trying to change that now. jonathan: you google, don't being. you uber, you don't lift. jonathan: mandeep singh, it was nice to catch up with you. lisa shalett will join us from morgan stanley. tom: an image from the united kingdom, there was a direct hit on westminster hall

that is an area in a cyclical trough as well.s is a indirect fishery as people get more confident about the economy -- beneficiary , as people get more confident about the economy. those are probably the more underappreciated and still less well-positioned subsectors that benefit from the reopening story. >> could have your insights. managing director and cio of nf trinity with her views on the markets. let's get the vonnie quinn with her first word headlines. yvonne: chinese officials will meet in the coming days to discuss the lactation of trade restrictions. australian trade minister said his chinese counterpart says the freeze is over and they're moving to a warm spring. he is hopeful for breakthroughs on the sale of timber, wine, dairy to chinese consumers. china's top leaders says the country has achieved a decisive victory over it covid as death tolls drop sharply. the policies and adjustments of kobe controls since november have been told -- covid control since november has been totally right, they are down from 4000 day