fed will be slower to raise. a weaker dollar and higher euro which is bad for the german stock market. this is unwounding the long trade that exists. the other implication for stocks is longer plays are also under pressure. health care is the big gainer. you all know about biotech going up. a lot of sectors in health care that have done very well and now having a little trouble. medical equipment makers like stryker had a goodyear. cigna, they are under pressure in addition to the bo tech. the builders which had a great start to the year also under pressure here because of the current economic situation, home building numbers this morning not very good. back to you. >> let's move over to what's happening in bonds. seven year notes up for auction. rick santelli is tracking the action. on monday for two years you gave us a c. yesterday for the five years it was b plus. what is it like today? >> c plus. we get a charlie plus for the seven year. if i graded more on a curve i might have graded it higher because it's a

the fed believes that the fed savings rate will decline going forward.her words consumers enjoying the spring and summer months, out there spending, and recent data to suggest that seems to be a occurring, but the fed wants to see evidence of it. call it a few months of evidence, maybe that is when they pull the trigger. mark: inflation has been running below the fed 2% target for nearly three years now. tony: correct, and, in fact, six months if you look at the data. it is one of the reasons janet yellen in her march 27 speech said the fed might go slowly with respect to its hikes, because it might permit the inflation rate to move up more quickly. it was helping to more quickly achieve its objectives, so expect when the fed does hike if it does, and we expect it as well, jim moved slowly, so that is about a quarter point. -- it moved slowly, so that is still about a quarter point. they want to stay focused on the entirety of this and not the initial hike which could be somewhat stressful in markets for a short time. mark: tony, let me ask you a questio

the fed already has those numbers. that is backward looking but it does tell them something about where the economy stands right now. one of the? questions going forward, how much of the recent weakness do they attribute to transitory backers? the poor weather in the first quarter? the west coast port dispute? perhaps the greater likelihood that their timetable has not changed that much. maybe june remains in place. that is something everyone will be watching closely. what do they attribute the weakness in economy to? struck from or is it something temporary that they think is going to be done -- structural problems or is it something temporary? betty: what might we hear from them about changing forward guidance? peter: the last statement gave them a lot more flexibility. a drop the reference to patience. they will be data dependent. they said in their last statement, we will be ready to move once we see further improvement in the labor market. when we are confident in inflation is moving back up to that 2% target. the

we got a fed statement. any surprises for you in the fed statement?s: they spoke about transitory inflation. we had a gdp number today. erik: kind of a hideous gdp number. bill gross: it was really hideous, a negative number, and i do not think the statement suggests a difference in terms of their attitude going for it. hopefully going higher, and they think real gdp is in a 2% to 3%, so they will sit and wait until we get there. erik: so what conclusions do you draw about the timing of a rate increase? bill gross: some say if we get a strong report, perhaps it is back on, but i think it is off and they simply want to get off the dime. they want to prevent they can get out of bed and stand on two legs. this means an increase perhaps in september and from that point forward, that is a key and how quickly will they move back to what we know as a new neutral. erik: and what would that be? bill gross: to my thinking, it would be 2% nominal. the old standard was basically a 4% nominal rate and a 2% real rate and some of the fed numbers, a lot of those dots

believes will stop -- the fed believes. mark: up next, live from mexico city, the latin america report. ♪ mark: welcome back. you are looking at a live shot outside the federal court in boston, massachusetts. dzhokhar tsarnaev found guilty on all 30 counts in connection with the april 2013 bombing at the boston marathon. that attack left three people dead and over 200 others injured. during the manhunt for him and his brother, a police officer with the massachusetts institute of technology was also killed. we are waiting to hear from the defense attorneys and the prosecution and as soon as they step up to the microphone, we will go back to boston, life. welcome back to "bottom line." is time for the latin america report. let's go to our bloomberg partner in mexico city who joins us live. >> let's start with at&t who have to pay to $5 million to u.s. regulators after an investigation found call-center workers in mexico, colombia and the philippines improperly disclosed personal data on almost 280 thousand customers. -- 280,0

but it does put the fed on hold but it doesn't put the fed on hold indefinitely. we're on hold for now pending better data. but i think we will get it. we were just talking about consumer confidence. if you look at the facts that are underpinning the u.s. economy. they've not changed this month. very solid because of the consumer. >> if it is solid, then what is it about staying zero that we think is the right thing to do. is it because we're global now and because of rates in europe? normally i would think normal rates would be around 3% or 4%. >> janet yellen and ben bernanke outlined that the -- the real rate of the economy should still be zero. because if you look at some of the other indicators of weakness in the labor market you can still see them. for example, if we look at the number of long term unemployed it's 30% versus 20% we saw in the last business cycle. janet yellen believes if you let this go for a little bit longer even if you let the economy overheat for a little bit longer, that's the way to reduce the remaining slack from the remnants of the f

the fed speaks, stocks take a dive, recover and repeat. marketses are trying to make a nice comeback, what caused investor jitters? >>> if you haven't been the victim of a hack attack, sad fact is you will be, and that distant and growing possibility juicing will profits of the high-tech company doing its best to keep the bad guys at bay, and helps a huge chunk of the internet industry. all the video you watch. shares up more than 36% over the past year. the ceo is our live best. >>> calm seems to be returning to the streets of baltimore, that's extending to the game between the orioles and the chicago white sox taking place right now at camden yards. you can pretty much hear a pin drop over there. no fans! we're loud and clear right here on fox business. the last hour of trade. let's start the "countdown." breaking news at this hour, sales force.com has just reopened after being halted due to extreme volatility on a market rumor it might be signing up bankers to explore options. it reopened, had been up 5% when halted, reopened, now up 12

you were talking about fed rates, fed rates.ou can hear from franchisees being trapped and the franchiseors. you can go to a hospital the cleveland clinic. we've been at jefferson in philadelphia. they're getting strangled by the rules of obamacare. you go to a bank and you can go to a small bank as we were in in kansas city to a medium sized ba. >> in ohio to the biggest bank in the country. and all they talk about is regulators regulators. >> understood. understood. last question here? >> actually i'd like to have you both do it. it's larry kudlow. i want to pick up where jack left off. the u.s. economy underperformed for 15 years. it's one of the longest slow-growth periods in our history. we're growing but underperforming. suzy businesses have been profitable. that's one reason think stock prices have gone up but they're not investing. they don't want to make a five seven, eight-year type investment. they are saying this is stagnation. what do you say to that? are they fleeing, running and cutting? >> they're being human. bu

that the fed is -- because the market is a transmission mechanism for fed policy. the fed is going to be very mindful of how the market reacts in the transition of that policy. >> steve steve, steve, the fed has always reacted to the market. let's face it. >> i think that's right, jack. >> i think it's the other way around, guys. >> we've been in the markets for 30 years. the markets have always told the fed what they want and the fed usually reacts accordingly, and what i see happening today is the fact that, you know, people are afraid of the initial move. when that move comes and the path to normalization is there in front of us guess what rick? stocks are going to love that. i think everybody will -- >> i don't know if they love it but i agree with you. don't get caught up in the first or second reaction. >> jack can i ask real quick before we have to go we're going to get these alcoa earnings that hit in an hour's time after the bell. going to unofficially kick off earnings season. jack what is this earnings report going to mean to you? >> alcoa doesn't mean a

all you have to do is look at the fed funds rate to tell you tlg no hike happening. >> fed funds rate been right, wall street has been wrong for years now. if you're looking at anything but that. then you're making a bet that that trend is about to change. i think the bigger issue right now quite frankly is the fact that we don't react to the news reports any more. which depending on how you look at that, that's kind of like a little bit depressing. the market almost doesn't care and is okay with stimulus forever. i don't know if i love that outcome. >> i don't, that's a good point. i don't think you want to trade the economy. i don't think you want to invest around the economy and money managers are not doing that transitory or not, the potential exists for a reallocation to happen. health in the first quarter, that's been one of the favored sectors for many of us on this desk. to do you have to re-evaluate and look at your holdings of health care. bond-like equities, utilities, mlps, reits, why hold them in a an environment where rates are going to rise. >> why are rates going up in

we have heard it from the chicago fed, and now president dudley at of the new york fed today.ot of the fed members have been fairly dismissive saying it will hurt exporters but only with a transitory impact. i think now that they have seen this jobs report, they are realizing it's going to be a more sustained impact on the economy and something they have to look at a lot more seriously. mark: mr. dudley use the term shallow. how do you define shallow? paul: it was interestingness speech today, because with this dot plot that if follows, even with the timing of the stock, they have been using the same rate increases about 120 five basis points per year. now we are seeing fed officials talking about a more shallow post liftoff policies. maybe that is the evolution in the. plot -- in the d.o.t. plot a slower pace. he made it very clear that the fed is going to tiptoe into rate normalization and will largely be dependent on the market reaction, how frequently they follow up with the rating. mark: so many dots it starting to look like a rorschach test. how will the response to the

guy lebaf when he thinks the fed will raise rates. who cares what the fed fund futures say. todd horowitz in the pits of cme. we care what you think. fed said no move. we'll not hint about any date. markets seemed to focus on a bad gdp print for the quarter. >> hi, liz. hi, ashley. the bonds are telling us they think the fed, even though they said nothing today, will raise sooner than later. however i think we'll find out as time goes on that 2015 will not see a rate hike. that the market will continue, we saw gdp today. there is no growth. we're talking about this for six months, where will the growth come from? i don't see it better in the second quarter. we shrink ability to make money. limiting new startups and new money. although prints are good, not good, where will the growth come going forward. you know i'm negative on market. the fundamental data doesn't back up where we are. you can't fight the fed. can't fight the tape. i'm nor neutral. chomping at the bit to jump in here. ashley: this rally they will tell you has been fueled by bubble fueled by the fed. you say f

or is your fed a reactive institution? randall: i have not been fed for a number of years.g in your fed. we are looking to you for answers. randall: i'm used to that. trying to make policy through the front window of the car rather than the rearview mirror all you have are data from the past and those data are almost always revised. you don't even know where you have been and you don't know where you are going. trying to do your best with the forecast and it's hard to get it right. tom: this is the heart of the matter, brendan. even in a boring day they have to get out front. brendan: what i meant to try and say is what is in the beige book is a shoot. when it shows up in the data, if the flour and we can look at it will stop at the terrible metaphor -- look at it. that is a terrible metaphor. can we actually see the pressure be felt and raise wages for a little bit? randall: for lack of a better -- tom p: for lack of a better phrase, here's what she actually said. she said weight pressures can start to lift up for us. let's concede there are some nation signs -- nascent si

it is hard to put all of this on the fed. the other thing is, that, yet you want to have, your investments in a safe place right now, but, you know, if the fed were very tight, we could be seeing stocks prices falling, real estate prices falling that wouldn't help savers either. they're in a tough spot. they're in a tough spot because of all the excess this is economy has. david: right. a lot of people saying because of some actions taken by past fed chairmans as well. >> absolutely. david: jon hilsenrath, thanks very much. great reporting. appreciate you being here. >> thanks a lot. liz: new report from the cdc shows more and more high school students using e-cigarettes but up next we thought let's bring in a e-cigarette maker on why he says the industry shouldn't take the blame. you have got to hear this. david: nearly 1/3 of higher income households live paycheck to paycheck. if you make 70 grand a year, you think you're okay but they don't have any stocks or savings for a rainy day. does a massive drop in the markets matt

continue to wait on the fed to raise rates. squeezed this quarter as they wait for rates to come up. this quarter was stronger on the investment traitor side. that is why coleman had a blowout quarter as opposed to the commercial side. betty: thank you for being here. great to see you. monday, as i mentioned, the comcast merger with time warner cable could be on the fritz. the u.s. justice department leaning against approving the deal to combine forces. it also has wide reaching implications for the industry. alex sherman has been very on top of the story. alex: how long? betty: we all thought this would happen. what is going on? alex: even people bearish on the deal tended to at least put it on 50-50. throughout the whole process which began back in february of last year, more than a year into it, we finally heard on friday what a great screw from the right -- great scoop for the regulatory team. they would recommend blocking the deal. comcast and time warner cable will meet with the drg -- doj. on the concessions they could m

and fed policy statement.their reaction to that u.s.gdp number will be interesting. 1%, nothing to get excited about. >> no nothing to get excited about but maybe something to get excited about because it might mean bad news is good news for the markets meaning that the fed will keep rates on hold for longer or that might be the thinking. we could see a pop in markets maybe if the print comes in weaker than anticipated and with regards to the negative interest rates does that mean continuing to buy into equity markets because with negative rates that's usually a positive for equity markets. >> yesterday we saw the u.s. ten year rally. it will be interesting to see what happens there if low rates in europe sends more investors into the u.s. so perhaps greek debt which is 23% on the three year. >> what did you think of the technology we just saw? >> amazing, right? a little story here when i was in college for the summer i worked for a heart surgeon where he specialized in robotic technology where the heart surg

is that like being fed hot? may be in for a few surprises from adam parker coming up. >>> also fed ex delivering gains from its addition of tnt. what if a small company became big buiness overnight? like, really big. then expanded. or their new product tanked. or not. what if they embrace new technology instead? imagine a company's future with the future of trading. company profile, a research tool on thinkorswim. from td ameritrade. >>> welcome back. dominic chu joins us tracking the movers on the session for us. >> kelly and bill let's start with what's happening with shire. shares climbing 5% today. the company is agreeing with u.s. regulators on a path for getting clearance on an adhd drug to treat hyperactivity in adults. so you can see those shares up by 4.5%. shares of axalta have rallied and that's after warren buffett brought 20 million shares of the company from a private equity firm and paid $360 million. carlyle is the biggest shareholder, the paint company spun off from dupont last year. that gives

there's the prospect of fed lift off. they're in a much better position from a balanced payments point of view than they were during the taper tantrum. that's where we stand. overall quite solid session although disappointment in indian and australian equities. >> sri for now, thank you so much. let's quick focus to greece. the greek prime minister said a funding agreement must be reached at a meeting with euro group creditors on april 24th. he also said athens will need all imf payment deadlines. this comes ahead of the loan repayment due later this week. and on a programming note cnbc will be discussing greece with christine lagarde this thursday. that's a first on cnbc interview. we have been talking about the greek drama for months now. how closely have you been watching the events that keep taking place? >> we're watching it all the time. the greeks themselves will probably pay pack the loans you were discussing. i think they wouldn't do so and would be in this strange space where the imf wouldn't actually see sort o

does this put the fed on the rails for june fed hike?factors that could make them slow down. bill dudley, new york fed president was out speaking today, he said, yeah you have to think odds of june are going down, not just because of gdp but payroll numbers were soft last week. we got minutes of fed march meeting came out. what we saw even before this week, data we've been getting, there was split at the fed. some people said june would be the right moment. but a lot of people on federal open market commit see saying later this year or even 2016. there were a lot of divisions before we got the weak number. the these weak numbers. now getting more weak numbers. looks like odds are moving towards september actually. liz: people who are leaving, charlie plosser, richard fisher said we should have done this yesterday. >> yeah. liz: they're speaking freely now. i begin to wonder if a window wasn't missed already? now there is a bit of a weakness or soft patch we're hitting and we can't do it now, like warren buffett predicted on fox business

insights from a former fed governor about wha. >>> not yet. the federal reserve does not move on rates and left few clues about what might lie ahead. >>> and your money. what should you do with your stocks and bonds now that the ? all that and more tonight on "nightly business " for >>> good evening, everyone and welcome. anemic. that describes first quarter growth. and while many expected the economy to be weak they didn't expecte this weak. gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods and services produced across the economy, grew at just 0.2% a massive deceleration from the fourth quarter and much worse than expected. a downgrade of the assessment of the economy leaving more questions about when the central bank will raise rates. hampton pearson has more on the federal reserve statement, but we begin with steve liesman and the economy's slow start to the year. >> the first quarter's weaker than expected gdp has ignited a debate on wall street and at thee over whether the economy is slowing more seriously or just working through som

as for the labor market the fed's question should they raise rates. labor market conditions remain stable or continued to show improvement. there were layoffs in the manufacturing and oil services energy sectors. firms in many districts reported having difficulty finding skilled workers, especially in professional and business services. modest or moderate wage press ure reported. mark: michael mccain. michael, thank you so much. let's check the equity market reaction. scarlet fu is at the breaking news desk. scarlet: good afternoon. if you come inside the terminal you can see how the s&p, dow and nasdaq have been moving before the release of the beige book. one of the more highly anticipated data points of the day. this was the trading action right before the 2:00 p.m. -- 2:00 p.m. release of beige book headlines. we are pretty much continuing on this slow downward trend of the last hour or so. not much change on that front. we're still looking at gains of about half of 1% to three quarters of 1% for the dow, net s&p -- dow s&p and nasdaq. the two yea

the fed is reassessing.hey're asking the -- the officials are asking themselves, is this economy going to perform this year the way they expected when they set out their forecast in march. it will take time to figure it out. it looks like june will be too early. this is the last thing i'd say, liz, is these next two job reports, the first friday of every month are really important. those will be the volatility days in the markets. we've got to see -- we will have to see really strong job numbers to move the fed at that june policy meeting. you're going to see a lot of action, the first friday of every month, including a week from now. >> that's a great reminder. people have put that to the sidelines. i think you're right because we had a terrible march jobs report. was that a blip? or is that the start of a trend? there are criticisms about janet yellen that she might be pandering too much to the stock market. you're one of the best interpts of fed thinking. is that a fair assessment? >> the fed does care ab

the fed. just saying. just saying. that's what's going to happen. >> well i will have to go the other side let's take the bet, ten pounds. here we go ten pounds. apple earnings they are going to be important, but the big earnings for them was last quarter because they had the iphone out and everyone was focusing on that. of course that will continue to be a trend, but we're in between when the watch is going to make a real impact and the iphone it still continuing to make an impact. on top of that relative to last week we had some big tech companies making a big impact on the market. i think apple, the fed, as soon as they give us any indication, is it june or september? >> they are going to continue to kick the can down the road. because of april he will i will argue that expectations are even higher for apple to really deliver another record breaking quarter. can they do that? >> that's really interesting. i'm not sure how we're going to mark this bet. >> i think we can look after the apple

is it a fed induced crisis?it an all of the above induced crisis among other things such as asset bubbles being inflated, asset prices being inflated to the point of being a bubble? >> and also before we move on i want to be -- i don't like the word crisis if you will. i certainly think speaking for myself here, there are obviously as there always are unintended consequences with respect to government regulation and the drying up of liquidity in the fixed income market is one of those but i would hesitate to use the word crisis at this point because we're nowhere near what you would -- when you think of crisis you think of '08 the depression. to a large degree you can make the case the financial sector is better suited today to deal with one of those instances whether there will be one because of those because of those policies is a separate story. it's hard to imagine the financial sector is not better prepared today. >> i think you also have to be careful because you have a lot of individual investors who don'

and then new york fed president bill dudley said chill, when the fed does raise rates, he said it won't be that bad. >> the likely task of short-term interest rates after liftoff is as important as the timing of liftoff. i anticipate the path will be relatively shallow. the headwinds in the aftermath of the financial crisis are still in evidence particularly the diminished availability and the tough returns we see for residential mortgage credit. >> add it up up and the dow jones industrial avera rose 117 points closing at 17,880. the nasdaq was higher by 30 and the s&p 500 was up 13. >>> that's how wall street felt. but there's no way around the fact that the jobs number last friday was not a good one. as hampton pearson tells us wall street and main street often see the economy very differently, and for good reason. >> reporter: in march, the government says the economy produced only about half the jobs expecte and when combined with revisions for january and february job growth for the first order of this year now stands at 197,000 per month compared to 269,000 for all of 2014. now t

the fiscal policy quickly moved us where the fed was in growth mode.olicy due to austerity was and contraction mode. and this is a point that i said when they were starting 2013. and i know how damaging that was. but now we move to florida where we remain in a growth mode. but this move from seven to four has actually been helpful even just having this from a negative fiscal fiscal neutrality is made a positive difference in growth and jobs. as many are concerned and you've heard this in andes and passion speech, that's about as passionate as you're going to hear the feds could potentially move to quick to neutrality. and so it will be a shallow path and will remain data independent but i would like to use it as forward where the fed is on growth and fiscal is on neutral. and there's an interesting taste here and i will stop after this point. one obscurity first struck they were kind of around a seven there. so they were kind of roundness with a contraction mode of fiscal policy and actually when they began the fed was kind of in a neutral mode and ver

olivia: the fed is. matt: the fed definitely is.itish man accused of helping cause the 2010 flash crash may be delivered to the u.s. sooner. he was in court wednesday trying to fight extradition. according to our story past record history shows it is rare to be extradited. olivia: very rare. matt: very rare not to be. olivia: yes. the strategy is go to the ecuadorian embassy. matt: that could be dangerous to your physical well-being. i don't understand how people are taking this seriously. we really will blame the whole flash crash on some day trader sitting in his underwear at his parents house? seriously? other high-frequency traders were not spoofing? no one else was putting out orders that they planned on canceling and then they canceled them en masse? that is what they do. it is ridiculous. olivia: betty and i were not doing it. matt: you were also not high-frequency traders. we will blame this guy? he is the scapegoat we have chosen? give me a break. betty: theme parks. we are getting ready for spring and summer. six flags rep

fed tightens.e fed tightens, that sets the clock. typically the recession starts five years later. olivia: a tightening cycle is not negative for equities. tom: this is the heart of an ed hyman report. this is the famous ed hyman black market with arrow. people pay thousands just to have this. do you do that still? ed: electronic. tom: it is all electronic. the truth is out. olivia: oil is bottomed? why? ed: first, it collapsed. second, the rig count collapsed. oil has been unchanged for over two months. that is the trifecta. tom: what did analysts get wrong as they look for $25 a barrel? ed: oil stabilized for two months, rate count -- rig count collapsed that leads to an upturn in oil. brendan: we have got shannon o'neil to talk about latin america. are developing markets insulated from a fed rate hike this time? ed: no. brendan: what kind of chaos do you expect? ed: i do not expect chaos but it is negative for the emerging markets. all else equal. when the fed tightens you will have another spik

it is a massive rate hike. >> we will see the april fed has a lot less conviction than the march fed.stors were also looking at fed governor jerome powell. he said the significant appreciation of the dollar against a lot of our trading partners currencies is having a restraining effect on growth this year, and that will probably continue. powell also said hidden slack in the labor market justifies a gradual approach to monetary policy after tightening after an initial interest rate increase. i want to get to this point. we want to hit on alcoa first. let's get to scarlet. it looks like the top line. >> it is a beat on the bottom line for sure. overall economy's were looking for anything from a range of $.20 to $.31. this is growth from the prior year. on the revenue lon -- revenue line, a little lighter than what analysts were looking for. we are still looking at growth from the same time a year ago. it is interesting that alcoa is revising higher. the global demand projection. it predicted 7% growth for aluminum globally. it is looking at 9% growth. carmakers like ford have been uppi

and their year end fed funds target.hen we look at what we think will likely or what we want to be in these minutes, will be more rationale about whether they see these factors as temporary. we've already heard about the strong dollar. what impact they think it will play. whether or not they saw weather as a problem, as well as the drop in oil prices. or whether or not they think this is a permanent slowdown. we of course think that these are one-off factors and if you look at private final sales to domestic mucher erpurchasers, that indicator at this time where seasonal adjustment processes can get out of hand is a far better indicator of the underlying strength of economic activity and that's been growing at a far healthier clip. >> annika we talked about this issue before but i think it's worth bringing up again today because for the first time ever a country actually sold debt ten-year debt and investors paid for the privilege to own it. switzerland actually issued debt in a bond sale today. the yield was negative 0.

you mention the fed minutes yesterday yesterday.ow two fed presidents indicating maybe june isn't off the table conspirely. that means the data points for the next two months will be very very important and the dollar is building on to yesterday's strength. we're seeing it pair higher by 0.1%. euro dollar losing ground off by a third of 1%. 10744 but that's been very range bound in recent times and cable. pound is lower. keep an eye on cable as we go into the elections volatile but also the boe decision later on today. and the oil markets we've seen oil price address gaining some of the ground from yesterday. brent crude higher by 2.2%. wti by 2%. yesterday we saw the 7% drop on the back of the eia report which showed the biggest growth in about 14 years. in the asian trading session that is the hang seng. we'll show you where the sang seng is right now. higher by 707 points. up by 2.7% but that's actually close to the lows of the session a whole degree of volatility here. why are we seeing the run up in the hang seng. >> what a mel

>> right now you have to watch the fed. they removed patience from the fomc statement so they could be data dependent. that data is trending lower. you have to follow the trend. lower for longer is what's in play right now and that's where equities are going to go higher if you look at the s&p outpacing the russell. that's, again, it's another usd bearish trade since large caps are more prone to overseas business, and i think that's what you should be looking at for q2 especially if the data continues to trend in a weaker environment. >> will, are you in the camp then that says this dollar -- this big move upward is going to take a pause for pretty much the second quarter here? we may even see some more weakness? >> it really depends on the data as these guys mentioned. with the economics coming out. obviously today the dollar is muted because oil is ripping which is taking some pressure off of the dollar. europe is closed and i think really watch the trends and position and react appropriately. >> kathy let's go back to wh

they knocked off the fed a bit. programs it got them to think about how to make you money which should be maybe a primary, secondary tertiary mission of most of the service dogs or political pines out there, unless, of course they're already in office. second, a weak jobs number breaks the velocity of the dollars record-breaking climb and programs even reverses eight bit as it did today. of course, at the end of the day the dollar started descending. it will probably be a different story tomorrow. how important is the notion that the dollar just doesn't go up every day anymore? let's map out some positives. it's almost earnings season. we don't want to hear endless number cuts that include the need to reflect the dollar's continual rise. most analysts haven't even cut numbers. probably about 70% of the analysts have not cut numbers yet because of the international companies because of the strong dollar. that's insane. it might call in question the upper trajectory going forward. it eases the commentary about the wea

the fed minutes.ought from the fed is important to us. >> even sleeping. >>> we begin with the corporate story of the morning, shell's mega deal to buy b.g. group. for $70 billion in cashing and stock. it's the biggest energy tieup in more than a decade. let's get details from cnbc's seema mody who joins us. is it the old british gas scene, isn't it and they changed a little bit to call it b.g. group to make it more inclusive of their operations or something? >> yeah it's these two big uk honchos coming together, joe. the sheer size of this deal. royal dutch shell paying $70 billion. that's a 50% premium to the price b.g. closed out yesterday. this deal comes as oil prices have declined about 45% over the past one year but the ceo of shell told cnbc europe this morning that the merger is not purely a bet on oil prices. >> this is not a bet on the oil price. this deal works in a whole range of oil and gas prices. of course, we still believe in the longer run in a few years' time, we will see the long-t

still waiting on the fed.ne said in his letter to shareholders it's a good thing it's a smaller firm. are we to buy this? michael: he pushed that line a few times, that there are -- this economy is to scale now because of capital requirements because of the complexity. so i think, you know, that is -- and they are more narrowly focused. so they have more of -- they believe they have more of a culture of being more of an institutional firm and not having a commercial. erik: but they have a bigger balance sheet than morgan stanley? so if it's good to be small in theory better to be morgan stanley -- michael: when you're comparing yourself to jpmorgan you're going to look small no matter what. erik: how about the retail business? that's been a source of strength for the most part, for morgan stanley and also bank of america, which still owns myrl lynch. so we have a sense of what that environment is like? stocks continuing to go up. we're not having a year like we did two years ago. stocks continue to rise. micha

then of course the fed wild card.moves at some point this year into the fall to tweak up interest rates and that slows things further that makes it easy for a republican candidate to say the economy is slowing, we need a new set of policies on taxation regulation a whole bunch of stuff. >> ben, good to talk to you this morning. >> always a pleasure. >> politico's ben white. >>> coming up investors return from a long haul of a weekend. friday's much weeker job reports. we're going to talk to david darst. that's when "squawk box" comes right back. >>> markets getting a chance to react to the march job numbers that came in way below expectations. a trip inside the numbers ahead. >>> president obama speaking on iran. >> this is our best bet to make sure iran doesn't get a nuclear weapon. >> michael hayden here to tell us why he thinks the deal is flawed. >>> and a record-breaking weekend at the box office for "fast & furious 7." a closer look at the movie that just logged the best april debut ever. the second hour of "squ

we remember a time when the fed tried to push up on rates.g end didn't respond. >> it's a question. i point to a funny line james grant wrote. in normal times when a company is failing and needs to go into liquidation liquidation, it's easy to screw it up and it happens. but you got to really put your back into it. right? so when that doesn't happen -- >> that's a good line. >> and makes a good point. radio shack should have died a long time ago. >> think about the other side of a whole bunch of companies that have survived that may not have survived but should be there. >> but should they have is the ultimate question. we don't know the answer. >> last but not least, any comeuppance in the next five years from the incredibly easy policies we see? some people would tie 2007 and 2008 to some of the mistakes the fed made. is another something like that looming? >> i thought we would agree that the fed made mistakes mostly on the regulatory side. >> really? well, that's not what they say. >> i think on monitory policy it's more debatable. i do t

then the fed runs out of room. if the fed lowers interest rates to zero, and if that's not low enough, then obviously monetary policy finds it very difficult to get to full employment. he points out, he argues that in fact, in order for monetary policy to get to full employment by itself, that it has to allow financial bubbles, like the housing bubble. and did he recall the early 2uring the early 2000s, he points out the economy did not overheat although all the the demand coming from construction and consumer spending out of the housing bubble. he argues, therefore, that that's evidence that monetary policy cannot get us to full employment without bubbles and of course we all understand that bubbles are very dangerous, and we certainly don't want that to be part of the policy tool kit. so what's the the solution? his main solution is that a fiscal policy. and he argues that by bringing in fiscal policy, in particular, for example, fiscal expenditure on new infrastructure, that that would help solve the secular sta

the discussions going on both inside the sad and around the fed by fed watchers and others are precisely focused on when will the fed lift off of zero. another way of saying not, the right way of saying that, when will the fed judge the economy is strong enough that it can start normalizing interest rates. so far the fed has decided not yet. >> host: alan blinder, two final questions. in your book trained re you talk about basis points. what exactly is a basis point? >> guest: that's basically a jargon word. it is 1100th of a basis point. so 1% is called by financial people basis points. 2% to 200 basis points. that is all. >> host: subtitle let's focus on the work ahead. >> guest: well, some of it has been done. we needed a substantial reform of the financial system, which in part because from the dog drink act in 2010. of many, many things, it touched a lot of things just to take us back where we begin the conversation. they reversed a horrible decision in the commodity futures modernization act that derivative should not be regulated. it also did many other things. so we made our comp

there's your fed implication.to the gold post and the notion that the data is slipping a bit and, well for now they're data dependent. let's look at a chart that combines the s&ps and ten-year note yields. you can clearly see that when the equity market started to move up after being negative the ten-year note yields turned around, as did the entire curve to some extent. >> the big question, are we about to see a big decline? if we do will stocks follow? if they follow and drop is it a buying opportunity? all of those questions will be asked and answered next on "power lunch." >> i'm courtney reagan and here's your cnbc news update this hour. commandos freed a dutch hostage held by al qaeda-linked militants in mali since 2011. he was on vacation with his wife who managed to escape. he was freed in a predawn raid. he was safe and in good condition. the company planning to offer 6.5 million shares between $17 and $19 a share. virtu sells high speed computers to sell stocks and bonds. it delayed its -- which criticiz

janet yellen and president dudley and the whole gang it the fed -- gang at the fed are going to moveslowly in this cycle, and it still has a long way to run yet. certainly we have not seen a lot of investment spending, a lot of housing, there is still part of the economy to have to catch into -- catch up to that. alix: alright guys, thank you so much, carl, kevin, lisa, thank you so much for joining us. coming up next on "street smart," an iranian deal is officially on the table, but what about oil? and that we will hear about the next move from the reserve bank in australia. ♪ alix: this is "street smart," i am alix steel. russian inflation accelerated in march since 2000 and two -- 2002, and the estimations were slightly higher than expected. rush wanted to ease policy this year after six increases in the benchmark last year. ukrainian president has decided to call a referendum on the country's in status. ukraine has repeatedly rejected calls for the russian government to have a self-government in the east. the president reiterated today that ukraine will remain a unified state. an

the fed will raise rates. that is not a good choice. kind of like mike bracket tonight. either wisconsin wins or duke wins, either way i don't win the bracket. >> don't have wisconsin? >> neither one. liz: nicole petallides and i have wisconsin. she doesn't have them to win. i have them to win. you have to make sure there isn't too much exposure to the united states? >> we like rest of the markets. we like europe as a trade. we're not a long-term bull on europe. currency, look at slow down in the u.s. in the first quarter, has less to do with weather, more to do with currency. when you go to europe you have currency at your back and ecb which is in easing mode which is opposite what you have here in the u.s. >> bernie, we're looking at a dollar chart, 1.09, couple days, more than a week ago we were at $1.06. the dollar isn't as strong but you feel the same way. to to names outside the realm of u.s. you're picking carnival, tjx, the name behind tj maxx. why those two names? >> tjx probably has less foreign curr

go. -- fed .come to our viewers around the globe. you were watching bloomberg television, and this is "street smart."we want to go to scarlet fu at the breaking news . a little bit of steam being lost into the close. >> you still my graphic. i was going to show you this selloff. it is more like an unraveling of the gains we have seen so far today. not very robust but this is what we have had in past hour as we wound our way down through the trading day. even though it looks like a fairly big gyration, only a 99 point swing. we did not get to triple that it. -- did not get to triple digit. right now a waiting game. we are waiting for guidance on just how much damage the stronger dollar and clash in oil prices had and will have on earnings, sales and profit. we are waiting for more data to confirm the service sector will not get infected by the weakness we see in manufacturing and factories. we are waiting for the fed to determine when liftoff will begin. all of that playing into the mix as investor

our next guest runs the biggest bond fund and he's to share about the fund and the fed. he's scott mather the chief investment officer for pimco. good to see you scott, welcome back. >> good to see you, sue. thank you for having me. >> you are outpacing your peers by better than 90% and you've turned that fund around. how did you do it? >> well i'd like to tell you it is all myself but it is really not. we have a process here that is a large team of people involved in designing the strategies and the individual securities that we're excellenting for the fund -- excellenting for the fund. so we have 260 portfolio managers and they are part of the strategy-making process. so it is using the same people and the same processes that have allowed us to outperform over numerous market cycles for deck ates. so we are returning the fund back to where we spend most of the time at the top of the league tables. >> indeed. where did you find the best trades and the best value in the market. because you've basically been looking around the globe as well as in the treasury market. so w

i mention the fed. also a lot of focus on stanley fischer, vice chairman of the fed we got to speak with yesterday in washington. particularly his comments about the timing of raising interest rates. have a listen. >> where most people think it will happen this year but you don't want to get a lot more definite than that. it depends on how the economy develops. we'll try to do it at the best possible time. we would like to see the economy beginning to grow again. and grow at a decent rate. >> he got a lot of attention for those comments. we saw bond yields go higher after that. a few research notes this morning in terms of what he says or hints. he can't give an exact time frame. he said inflation rate was starting to turn up toward the target. zero interest rates can't last forever. he also said you are starting to see a sign of a turnaround in the u.s. economy. he is shaking off the boor data we saw in the first quarter. >> we'll see. "the journal" argues jobs starts, industrial production, even claim

the fed's telling you by the end of 2016 you'll have a 2% fed funds rates.the perspective that i don't have to take risk to get a fairly decent set of yield, then you look at all the other stuff that's been used to get yield in your portfolio, that's where you're going to have a repricing. not neszcessarily on the day of reckoning. >> they want to make sure it's orderly. that's their fervent hope. >> of course but it's hard to necessarily engineer that because of the needs for income in the face of persistent zero interest rates. >> they're not going to do anything or say anything today. >> you sound so disappointed. >> blah, blah blah it's just going to be more of that. >> come back in june and we'll see -- >> it's going to be the minutia that matters. if they box themselves out of june, that would be interesting. if they make a promise on something, that will be interesting. >> and the market will focus, as you highlighted in the beginning, do they upgrade inflation. do they focus more on inflation or more on growth. if they focus on recovery and expectati

of the fed. and most traders are taking a longer term view on normalization, therefore, they believe they're going to live longer and lawn trade, they're not going to buy any life insurance known as the vix. i think it's fascinate, 29th session after the fed meeting. what does it mean for interest rates? last closed above 2% was a day before the statement on the 17th. and in the 29 sessions, every one of them in tenure have closed in the 13 basis point closing range between 186 and 199. and as far as what the fed means or doesn't mean today, like sir arthur solution to figure them out today, you have 17 minute solution because at 11:53, the nasdaq went negative s&p didn't go negative until 12:10 eastern in the 17 minutes, they went down when the nasdaq did. even though it moved to levels we haven't seen since early april, almost early march with the 109 handle euro, so they are looking at the fed just like the vix not looking for any tightening any time soon. >> rick, are you trying to say that b