this week goldman sachs has a harsher prediction. they're saying negative 6% for the first quarter and negative 24% for the second quarter. if the united states actually goes through a contraction, negative 24% growth in the second quarter, what does that mean? what does that look like? >> we are looking at something that we've never seen before in record speed. mass unemployment at this stage. i mean these numbers are drastic. but businesses are grinding to a halt. you know i look around the world at how other countries are responding to this because every country basically in the world is going through the same things and, jake, they're cutting blank checks and they said they would backstop 80% of salaries and this is the spending and support required. congress needs to understand that we need a two to three-month economic financial

goldman sachs sees three rate cuts amid a short global contraction. oil pushes higher as russia says it is willing to cooperate on the cuts. brussels watch. turkey triggers fears of an eu border kiesel's -- crisis amid growing military escalation in the u.k. and eu trade talks begin amid fears of a breakdown. welcome to daybreak: europe. kuroda has spoken. the central bank puts are alive and effective. dollar-yen, look at the past five days. on friday evening, so the powell put was activated on friday. likewise from the bank of japan. the firepower within g7, g20 from the monetary and fiscal point of view. dollar-yen was rolling over. appropriate support, ample liquidity from the boj, appropriate action in terms of qe. appropriate seems to be the byword central bankers are latching to. and valueon of wealth last week in the s&p 500 so i will not get that excited about a .5% rally, but it has turned around. injected liquidity, three rate cuts talked about. you have the beginning of a perception of -- what is the yield on the s&p 500 relative to a bond

more doom and gloom from goldman sachs.ing these calls from estimates having to revise their forecast given the situation due to the outbreak of the coronavirus. nejra: thank you so much. sophie, a dire forecast using a combination of the fed model and the history of declines. are you looking at for your forecast? do you see the s&p 500 ending the year at 3500? buybacks inen using our model. earningshe implied recession since the peaking fed in 2020. we see 20% eps recession priced in, already more than the recession priced in. in the near term you could have more downside. medium-term, what we andseeing is recovery momentum by the end of the year. butef: you cannot help wonder, in an event where it does reach that level, whether the leaders of days past, the tech companies, are going to be the leaders of the charge forward. the same names that help drive momentum, or is there going to be rotation? >> it could be a rotation. me, being out of the growth component, into next month, that why equitieshat is versus u.s. tech. bu

goldman sachs sees a 34% decline in the second quarter with a stronger rebound in the third quarter. if the worst over? china march pmi skyrockets higher, while officials worn doesn't mean every thing is back tomorrow -- everything is back normal. we will speak to scott sheffield, ceo of pioneer natural resources, and jeff currie of goldman sachs. welcome to "bloomberg daybreak: americas" on this tuesday, march 31. congratulations. we made it through a terrible first quarter, and we could be ending on something of an up note. futures dipping into positive territory after the first quarter since 2008. yields down by about three basis points, but in europe, still seeing some selling. nice pop after yesterday's disastrous performance, but still, you can't call any kind of victory within the crude market. time now for today's top market moving news from our washington and new york bureaus. congressional republicans and democrats are preparing for a fourth round of stimulus. joining me is kevin cirilli. the ink hasn't even dried on third stimulus package. what are we talking about for pha

goldman sachs forecasting in the the economy will shrink at an annualized rate of 34%.midyear jobless forecast from 9% to 15%. crude is wrapping up its worst quarter on record. of is down 65% since the end december. donald trump he is concerned and spoke to vladimir putin about the market share battle with saudi arabia. in the u.k., there is rising pressure to speed up coronavirus testing. 10,000 tests are being carried out every day according to officials, but the actual rate is 7000 per day. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @quicktake on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am viviana hurtado. this is bloomberg. tom: thank you so much. worldwide, we had earlier the spanish headlines of real challenges in madrid and catalonia. coming up, we will look at retail america with oliver chen from cowan. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ morning, everyone, bloomberg "surveillance." thank you for being with us from your homes, tv out on the terminal. we greatly appreciate your attendance in this crisis. he charm of oliver che

>> just think about it, goldman sachs expecting unemployment to be over 2 million. we find that out tomorrow. last week it was 200 thousands. hans, thank you. >>> i want to go global now. the world health organization has warned that the united states could soon become the epicenter for the coronavirus, and new york has been hit especially hard with the number of cases doubling every three days across the state. nbc's raheem is ellis in new york. what are officials telling you about how bad this could get. it's important for our audience to understand we're talking about a million square-foot facility being reorganized to help patients the same day the president is saying let's again this whole country up and running in two weeks. >> reporter: for officials here in new york city, which has been know at the time beco become the epicenter, they alarmed by that. the governor is concerned. now it won't be a showcase for cars and boat shows, but for 1,000 hospital beds that, as you mentioned, this will be transformed into a temporary hospital, not for the most severe cas

as you mentioned, kendis, goldman sachs came up with a number they estimate this week, $2.4 million. that's massive. a huge jump from the previous week. >> something after unprecedented meltdown, i need a glimmer of hope. tell me who is hiring? >> that's the good news. there's some companies that need a lot of people because they need to get the goods out, shipped, delivered to those staying at home. among those companies, amazon, d domi domino's, walmart and blue apron. those that don't want to cook a meal from scratch. they want a frozen meal and cook it as quickly as possible. >> amazon, hiring up to 100,000 people over the next few months. sabile marcellus, thanks so much. and ali velshi will have more on the massive stimulus package and if the companies deserve bailouts from taxpayers. >>> as cases spike in new jersey, the governor orders everyone to stay home. this as one of the testing sites was forced to close just minutes after opening. >> woman: what's our safelite story? we were on a camping trip... ...when our windshield got a chip. >> man: we drove to safelite autoglass

goldman sachs economists expect the fed to cut 50 basis points this month.lizabeth warren has called for fiscal stimulus and federal loans to businesses to mitigate the disruption and prevent any layoffs. let's get back to my guest, jeffrey halley, senior market analyst at oanda. head to theour goldman sachs idea that you see a 75 basis point cut in june. bank of america said 50 points to stem the panic. let me put another one to you. need anhink we intra-fed cut? an intra-fed meeting cut? well, if i was donald trump, rates should be as zero right now but i don't think we need an intra-meeting cut, either. i don't think the stress is in the financial system. there is no stress and the banking system. rate start flying a way to the top side. everyone is still lending to each other so the problem is not in the financial system. i think rate cuts will make everyone feel better and being a calming measure, but the real problem is what miss warren is there are liquidity crunches because of the fall over in aggregate demand and supply curves. that is where the str

that as analysts at goldman sachs are saying they believe over 2 million americans filed for unemployment last week. let's sdus now. julia chathly is here. hello to both of you. julia, you first. futures marking reeling with this failure to reach a deal. what dough know? >> it's sending a message. the markets are send issing a message to politicians they have to stop playing politics. in my mind, this isn't a stimulus package. it's an investment in survival. for the next two to three months while this economic shock goes on. we're fighting a a health crisis by creating an economic crisis telling businesses that they say they have to shut overnight. that's happening for small businesses. that's happening for medium sized businesses and large businesses. they are all afraid of going bankrupt. now at the heart of this is the workers that we're already seeing losing their jobs. we have to try to prevent that as much as possible. you made the point there's to time to lose. the problem with whaer seeing is the optics. i'm hearing a $2 trillion package. but it's the optics of giving an aggregate

this as goldman sachs is out with another bombshell note saying jay powell will act sooner rather than later plus, two more airlines making chan changes as virus hits. cooperman taking on trump over the federal reserve in times of crisis "worldwide exchange" begins right now. >>> good morning and welcome to the show i'm dominic chu. >> announcer: to brian sullivan. with me the entire hour, peter bookfar wiright now stock futur indicate what could be a nice open to the upside, about 175 points within the last hour we were up 400 to 500 points implied. we'll see if that moves. the dow jones futures have been going from losses all the way to gains. at one point we had a range of 1100 it's been a volatile, possibly preshadowing the market. ten-year government yields we gone down to 1.0 3 year, setting the record two-year treasury notes, 1.2%. the session low for american-based crude is $43. you can see $45.53 the last trade there. we have seen a bit of a downside move in the last hour or two let's watch what's happening a rebound in under way, in asia and europe as well as investors hope f

of stocks popular among individual investors said john marshall head of derivatives research at goldman sachs he said quote the size of the increase in options volume is definitely moving the needle it's a variation if you will on the theme that greg gave us the stock market crash of 987 because in 87 you had a product and i was working on wall street at the time the product was portfolio insurance so you have a $1000000.00 portfolio and you can hedge that portfolio by buying options that spend one or 2 percent of your capital in this way if the market were ever to crash 101520 percent the most you could lose would be the value of that option which would be one or 2 percent so what happened is that there was chicago which is the futures market and the options market versus new york which is the cash market they got locked into contention where the amount of hedge that was required to cover the underlying cash market was out of whack due to a technological contention in this massive database and it created a meltdown so you had this massive selloff and i think a 722 that almost 23 percent coll

you're right he worked for goldman sachs for some years didn't distinguish himself in any way and then was involved in the hedge fund and investing in a number of american companies including private health companies which might be indicative of which way the trade deals with the united states might go and with the privatization of our n.h.s. so there are a lot of worrying signs there but i think it's too early for us to rush to judgment there's nothing wrong with being being young and inexperienced i just worry that he won't have the gravitas and weight to with stand some rather shadowy people behind him you mention privatisation the doctors association union here says that not even one percent of doctors in a survey believe the n.h.s. is we'll prepared for a coronavirus if you were advising the chancellor today would you say that all outsourced private contracts should be renationalise and brought back into the state sector i think those those structural changes are desperately needed but i think the 1st priority must be to increase preparation for the oncoming effects of the virus i

a 160n hawken, putting price tag on goldman sachs down from two third -- $230.his is bloomberg. ♪ vonnie: this is "bloomberg markets." i'm vonnie quinn. the fight against the coronavirus has put pharmaceutical companies at center stage. trade group pharmaceutical research represents the country's leading in -- leading research companies. its ceo and president joins us now from washington. supply chain disruptions that your members are experiencing right now, what are the worst ones? >> hi, great to be with you. actually, our company is being very vigilant and is in constant communication with the fda. we have not had major disruption in the supply chain and have been very focused on, as you know, developing a safe and effective vaccine and effective treatment for those already infected. vonnie: there's that and then there are the treatments being touted by the president. what are your member saying about the president's comments regarding experimental treatments? our members are focused on four key areas. they are focused on working with other companies on diagn

goldman sachs warns that the virus will take the u.k.f a recession as london based banks test backups. ♪ matt: worse than lehman.

just to hammer home the urgency goldman sachs has estimated more than 2 million people have filed for unemployment claims just this week. if accurate, that wouldn't just be eight times higher than last week. it would be an all time record. in a sign of the times the irs tax deadline has been pushed back three months to july 15th. i want to bring in cnn business anchor julia chatterly. all of these predictions about lay-offs and another great depression, do we have any idea of the scope of this? >> i have to be honest with you here and great to be with you, without big spending from the government, there is a risk that some of these dire predictions become reality. as you were just hearing there, we are telling people to stay at home to fight the health crisis but it's creating an economic crisis, an economic black hole effectively where businesses have no customers and the problem here, the big problem is the majority of the employment in the united states is small and medium size enterprises. 27 million workers work for front line businesses -- bars, restaurants, tourism -- and those

the german down 4% the ftse 100 down 4% as well as the france cac goldman sachs upgrading the stock from buy to neutral down 70% year to date the fear is priced in and the long-term secular growth remains intact price target remains at $173 a share. boeing is under $92 a share right now, indicated lower by 3% to the coronavirus pandemic where the number of cases around the world has surged past 311,000, with at least 26,000 in the united states. this morning nearly one in three americans are on a strict stay at home order with ohio and louisiana the latest states to enact lockdowns. rahal solomon is back at hq including the latest on the virus relief bill being punted around the senate. good morning >> good morning, courtney. the senate last night failed to advance the massive coronavirus stimulus bill after democrats objected, denying their counterparts 60 votes needed to move forward the debate continues this morning, including the senate's possible phase three deal. speaking on fox news sunday, treasury secretary steven mnuchin said financing programs for businesses hurt by the corona

goldman sachs they prices could do below $30 a barrel.have already seen that for my makes the bti, which is trading for $29 and change. dramatic follows the breakdown between opec and russia on how to manage the world supply. joining us now from dubai is the of the energy company on the phone. they key so much for your time this morning. what do you make of this drop? do we have further to fall? >> yes. ramped the saudi's have up production very aggressively and they have made it extremely bold cuts to their selling prices. just increasing production, but it is about pushing a lot of oil very quickly into markets that don't want it. are talking about the production, last month was below 10 million barrels a day, elders talk they may be going to 11 million. they could add easily a million and a half barrels a day to the market. bear in mind, the opec meeting last week, they were talking about cutting 1.5 million barrels per day. so that is the potential swing in the market supply of 3 million barrels a day. where we thought we were on thur

euro stocks futures, to divert and calls between bankamerica and goldman sachs.he bonds and dollar-yen, yields and treasuries just moving ever so slightly. last week, we moved 22 basis points. the previous four weeks, 44 basis points. a little dollar rolling -- dollar strength this morning -- yen strength this morning as we are seeing the dollar give back a little bit. crude, down 4%. some of the moves in markets might be to do with this. quarter and strains and in the skittishness of a volatile market. tweaks to money manager trillions may add $20 the stock markets. here with the details is dani burger. dani: the quarter and means we will see some rebalancing and windowdressing. pension funds and other money managers have specific targets of asset allocation being hit and because of this massive selloff, we now see these managers hold near record lows of risk assets. that means they will have to add back into equities in order to restore those mandates. take norway's sovereign wealth fund. because of the selloff, the ceo managing 70% allocations to equity has fa

goldman sachs sees deeper contraction in the u.s.casting and the second quarter the world will shrink at an annualized rate of 34%, compared with an earlier estimate of 24%. goldman revising its midyear jobless to 15%. the coronavirus outbreak in europe may be approaching a peak , according to the who. italy reported the smallest number of cases in two weeks and the lockdowns are starting to pay off. in the u.k., there is rising pressure on the government to speed up coronavirus testing. 10,000 tests are being carried out each day but the actual rate is about 7000. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @quicktake on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am viviana hurtado. this is bloomberg. tom: it is an extraordinary early morning in america, very early, and the tents are outside mount sinai in new york city, thunderstruck by the statistics and the depths of this pandemic which spreads out across the nation. the spanish data was equally grim. we spoke with a government relations

investment banks and brokerages doing best today, up 13% after a note from goldman sachs. consumer services and drug retailers are up. this is bloomberg. ♪ vonnie: this is bloomberg markets. i'm vonnie quinn in new york. amanda: i'm amanda lang in toronto. oil demand growth forecasts have been cut to their lowest in more than a decade after prices plummeted this week. we talked this week to continental resources advisor harold hamm to see if the industry needs help. asking for a handout, we want a level playing field. certainly do not want to be disadvantaged. these people are taking advantage of a pandemic, this coronavirus, pandemic, to try to wipe us out. with more on the outlook for shale is shaia hosseinzadeh. sensestart -- there is a that there are a number of weak players, and nowhere is the debate more pointed than in shale when it comes to the question of supporting businesses through a strange, volatile short-lived storm that they could not have foreseen, and letting businesses that were overleveraged and badly managed to. how do we thread that needle? shaia: it'

we have a new number here from goldman sachs. minus 24% and i don't think this is a report they want. that's for the second quarter decline in gdp, but they took out the previous record hold erer and these are set to i think be adjusted over time, but 24% decline they're looking for in gross domestic product in the second quarter and a modest rebound is expected by our panel of economists here looking for four or 5% in the second quarter. i'm sorry, the third quarter coming back. we'll see if that holds. really what happens is that the weakness will translate to the second quarter again to the third. >> and steef, i just wanted to come back to you on that unprecedented week we've seen from the fed to add to the unprecedented for a couple of weeks. they're not the only one who's see iing fiscal and monetary announcements from all economies around the world i guess the negative spin is that are these place, these institutions going to run out of bullets as they're firing aggressively and market rs still falling, is there a positive

we have heard from goldman sachs.the market opened a slashed their second and third impacts. what does $20 a barrel of brent look like in the middle east countries that heavily rely on oil for their entire budget? exactly. let's take it to danny. good day to see you. while lose in the currency market. i talked about yen. i talked about the aussie dollar and the aussie and. -- aussie yen. a picture ofnt what seems to have been happening this morning. the word to use here is fire sale. when you have ali asset selling things any tohese search for the liquidity and to sell into the market. it seems to be that currency is taking some of the hit. the kiwi dollar and aussie dollar at one point tumbling about 5%. that is a wild level we are seeing. the trading into the market already has 10 liquidity. when you look at the index of short-term traders, they are trading at the highest level since 2016. when you look at those specific traders despite the losses in the currency market, it really extends to all the markets. they ar

at goldman sachs, even a price war halt can't save oil from its huge glut. nprecedented collapse in oil demand. goldman seeing any agreement to freeze out or cut output will be too little, too late. bill ackman's fight against the market paying off. ackman bought $27 million worth of credit protections on several bond indexes as the likelihood of corporate default rose. investors, square capital management's ackman says the hedge fund generated $2.6 billion in proceeds. that is your bloomberg business flash. alix: thanks so much. just to update you, federal reserve chairman jay powell just sat down for a live interview on nbc's "today show." he really tried to pass onto the american public that we will see a vigorous economic rebound once the coronavirus outbreak has passed area he described all of the action the central bank is taking, and's and mortgages and car loans are among the areas where the fed can step in. he also said the fed is not going to run out of ammunition in this fight. he really wanted to drive that point home as well. pretty unprecedented

i could play a tape the next morning of one of our favorite investors that taught me a lot at goldman sachs saying they changed for the worse. i told you repeatedly that i hated the oil stocks just the worst of all stock with the exception of cruise lines. they were uninvestable over and over again down 71% for the year and everyone i know everywhere i go people have given up they want to sell everything and they want me to tell you to sell everything maybe you want me to tell you. no, i'm not. so you don't need more bearishness from me. you need to know what could happen that would make me positive so what could still go right let me start with a caveat that's so important. we're a business network the federal reserve is not on the list despite the insistence of money managers, whatever is going on, but over and over again here is the thing. they can't it just doesn't matter you can't solve a public health crisis with monetary policy those aren't bad ideas but they probably won't be to move the needle we need massive fiscal stimulus. what can you go right? that matters first we need to fla

goldman sachs, japan's is withuity strategists us. we have plenty more to come on bloomberg.ate you on the virus and the latest oil prices as well. this is bloomberg. ♪ blues of epic proportions in the markets. emerging market equities in particular. we have thailand and indonesia all getting hit at this point in time. all down by more than 5% in indonesia. it will intensify the triple market intervention. it will continue its policy coordination with the government as well. again, pretty much a down market across the board, getting ripped this morning. the coronavirus has spread to about half the world countries now with some global fatalities reaching 3800 and infections in italy a could sing those in south korea. it's crossed now to bloomberg coanchor in hong kong. run us through the latest numbers. what we are seeing now is decent declines in new infections in china. the has been a slow an emerging trend. also in south korea. they did report an additional lastad a 48 cases in the 24 hours. authorities say looks like things are starting to slow down. the number of infectio

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like transmitting 2 new rabbit goldman sachs. but profitable partnership with contagious disease this. think about it this way if someone who wanted people to be sick with a deadly virus and they would is walking around stabbing people in the neck with tainted needle we would call them a sociopath or a psychopath we wouldn't arrest them maybe shoot them in fact that's the plot of one of those bad venture called movies guy wants population to get sick guy is shot dead for being crazy well guess what that's what our investment banks want that's what big pharma wants that's what our entire economic system wants say with me our market economy is a sociopath it has the opposite qualities of anything you would want in a good human being so why do we have our entire earth system under a sociopathic model no i was literally asking i have no idea i was hoping you might have the answer go to washington d.c. the bell on the basis is redacted and i. welcome welcome i'm luke camp i'm currently doing this from inside a pure real bubble. now a

and goldman sachs added target after the investor day guided that momentum will continue both growthargin and operating margin dollars the stock up almost 2%. >> citi upgrade morgan stanley, saying they have an attractive entry point. even though morgan stanley shares are down, citi says it will see less impact on longer-term returns since it's not as dependent on low-cost deposits we mentioned this one yesterday and how the fact that on a p ratio it had gone slightly cheaper than goldman sachs, and since the virus related fears it has declined as the others but it had already had a bad week before that so it has had a big fall certainly from its peak and clearly this team, josh, and goldman sachs have less exposure to interest rates because they have less portion of their earnings from the interest income but they're going to be volatile. >> eight times forward earnings. what are investors thinking of this business's long-term future i almost feel like they should buy 20% of the float. >> well, they can't because they've got to raise capital to buy e-trade. >> if market is saying we

has no resiliency goldman sachs is expecting the economy in the united states to decline by 24 percent in the 2nd quarter whether or not you know we'll see civil disorder because of that i know in our in terms of our just in time neal liberal sort of a con a me there are i noticed supply chain issues in our local area where supermarkets still 56 days later have no supply so i don't know what people who haven't stocked up or who don't have any supplies at home a reasonable amount or who have you know live paycheck to paycheck i don't know what they're doing and in fact larry summers did tweet that right after his comments about why don't we have a nice law as he said why is everybody buying guns he said he said it says it suggests that people think there is a civil disorder coming well probably because they've been to the supermarket a few times and seen no food well i want to point out that when you mentions why they're over it's that's because they have supplies they have masks they don't have to shut down their economy south korea taiwan singapore haven't had to shut down their econo

because unfettered capitalism doesn't even want to create cures cures are bad for business in fact goldman sachs they said it in the 2018 analyst reports the potential to deliver one shot cures is one of the most attractive aspects of gene therapy however such treatments offer a very different outlook with regard to recurring revenue versus chronic therapies while this proposition carries tremendous value for patients and society it could represent a challenge for sustained cash flow in that same note they literally go on to lament the fact that curing existing patients also decreases the number of carriers able to transmit the virus to new patients they are upset people are transmitting the new revenue streams like transmitting to new run goldman sachs even a profitable partnership with contagious disease this. think about it this way if someone who wanted people to be sick with a deadly virus and they would is walking around stabbing people in the nack with tainted needle we would call them a sociopath or a psychopath we would arrest them maybe shoot them in fact that's the plot of one of thos

was morgan stanley and goldman sachs that yesterday declared that global recession underway saying thelikely to be worse than 2001, not as steep as steepest 2009. if we get recession, do we get a spike in inflation? think too many people are worried about inflation. someight see inflation in countries if their currencies we can on the back of this recession. -- weaken on the back of this recession. defense --ey difference from previous times. nejra: thank you so much for joining us. nick wall. futures turning lower in europe. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ anna: good morning, welcome to "bloomberg markets: europe." we are live in london. i am anna edwards. ♪ the u.s. looks to inject over $1 trillion into the economy to counter the coronavirus. britain announces billions in loans and tax cuts while japan considers a cash handout. s&p futures

economy could shrink by 34%, according to goldman sachs. a cafe in wisconsin, takeout only, of course, now giving away food for free. >> if somebody can afford, that's great. if they can't, that's fine too. they've still got to eat. >> reporter: we can't let up. not yet. >> we can't let this monster come up. we've got to keep trying to push it down. this is a critical time. >> reporter: now, the first place in this country to implement a stay-at-home order was a block of seven counties in the san francisco bay area. that was about two weeks ago. we have just heard from them, they are extending that nearly another five weeks through may 3rd. and about a half hour ago the governor of california was asked if he had any regrets, telling the whole of california to stay home so early in this crisis. no regrets, he said, the only regret he would have is if we cut the parachute, he said, before we land, jake. >> all right, nick watt in california, thank you so much. joining me now, cnn's dr. sanjay gupta. sanjay, the world health organization and t

goldman sachs calling in into the bull market.nings down your on your in 2020, the second revision in just a few weeks. when he for 50 is where they see the s&p midyear, but rebounding to 3200. in the markets, we are seeing divergence between the s&p and europe. more fiscal concrete measures coming out of europe, not in the u.s.. that is weighing on s&p futures, down by 2.6%. all of that means a rotation into gold and into u.s. bond markets. yields move a bit higher, and crude getting totally pummeled. how long can people hold out until they have to trim all their production and go home? going there for the hour is michael mckee, who i hate because he just spent four days in florida on the beach, away from markets, away from the virus, away from everything. welcome back. michael: i was at a conference, actually, and nobody is shaking hands. alix: did you do the elbow thing? michael: i try to that. people said do the star trek thing. alix: i literally can't do it. it is so hard. michael: everybody wants to know what is going to hap

some of numbers are ugly goldman sachs looking for a 24% second quarter decline jpmorg jpmorgan, 14%. these are declines we have almost never seen in the post war period we'll have to figure out why they are optimistic than everybody else add it all up, we have a median of the economists there of a 12% decline. they still look for a rebound. you don't get all of it back in the third quarter. the median forecast look fs for 6.2% rebound it's almost certainly not right but it will give us an indication as time goes by and data comes in of how much of a decline this forecast. are we doing better or worse than we initially thought and is the rebound going to be stronger or weaker. that's why we're keeping track of this. >> the real debate is how quickly the economy will come back when it does come back or how different it's going to be for how long, right. >> people will act like something will happen like this again. economist vs a very quick answer to that which is the longer we are down, the longer and weaker we will come back. i think that's probably a good the quicker we come back, t

goldman sachs has a pleasant -- unpleasant answer. not yet.mberg. ♪ matt: welcome back to "bloomberg market: the european open." six minutes from the start of cash equities trading and it looks like it will be a very down day to kick off the week. for investors were asking marked ahe stock rally turnaround, goldman sachs has an unpleasant cancer, which is not yet. here with your morning call is annmarie hordern. calzada: two big goldman sachs yesterday as we see the economic fallout continuing. say we can, they follow another 10% and say the economic fallout deepens, that could take stocks down for friday's close to 2000 on the s&p 500. the bank says gdp forecasts are getting slashed him or predicting zero growth in the first quarter and a 5% contraction in second quarter. this was all just revised. they revise their outlook given what is going on economically from the coronavirus. anna: in terms of where this is hurting most in the global economy, we heard from a number of european airlines this morning about their lack of visibility, inabili

goldman sachs saying today the united states will hit 15% unemployment by the summer. 15%. that translates into 25 million americans out of work. dust bowl levels of joblessness. goldman sachs also saying the united states economy will now contract in both the first and second quarter of this year. amid the dow headlines and expectations, this will get worse. there are also some signs social distancing strategies driving the disruption are also beginning to disrupt the virus. a cnn analysis in new york state show the numbers are still growing, but at a far slower pace. still, the surgeon general this morning with a very stark warning. what new york looks like and feels like right now, your city could experience soon. >> the rest of the country is following a similar trajectory right now as new york. they're at different places on the curve, but their curves are starting to look the same. >> cnn is on the ground in places emerging as the next hot spots here in the united states. one of the states with the fastest rising death rate is louisiana. officials there are warning th

banking sector with some major names like morgan stanley and goldman sach down. deutsche bank down across the board, lower interest rate, lower growth an environment of fear is not helpful at all for the banking sector all eyes on that ecb decision next week and whether they go for an interest rate cut which wouldn't be good for the banking sector either. switching to oil we have the second day of the opec meeting going on. a lot of expectations as to how much cuts they'll push through, recommending 1.5 million barrels a day in cuts. this is the picture for some of the oil majors you can see most of them are trading on the back foot not as negative as some of the other stocks we saw on expectations that perhaps opec would surprise and go for a deeper are a longer cut. that is something to keep an eye out for. >> i've been mentioning airlines let's talk about what is happening there. lufthansa is down 4.3% after they said they will be suspending over 7,000 flights. that is roughly 25% of the company's total capacity it blames cancellations on the waning command th

this comes as goldman sachs is predicting a startling number, they expect that over 2 million people filed unemployment claims this week alone. that would be the highest level in a single week on record. that's where we begin this morning, let's start in california, our kyung lah joins us in los angeles, this order overnight by governor newsom, what does it mean for every person in california, what they can do and can't do? >> well, let's just start by saying what it looks like here in california, poppy. that will begin to answer some of your questions. i'm in a commercial district in pasadena, california, and this is an area i'm familiar with, i don't live that far away from here, it is 6:00 a.m. here in california, normally the street would have boxcars, all standing along the medians, deliveries beginning, people getting their morning coffee, none of that is happening. 40 million ordered to stay home, to not go shopping, to not go to businesses and to not go to school or to work. if they do try to go out anywhere, a lot of the nonessential businesses have been closed. that is per

unlike the financial crisis, short-lived according to goldman sachs.t do you say. >> that would be a great thing if it would be short-lived. if this were the seasonal flu, if we coffing out how to treat covid-19 better, that would help us. an economic package would help us. the cut from the fed last week is going to help us. all these things will help shorten the tim timeframe. the reality is, car sales plummeted in china 92%, airlines were off 85% in february. we're going to experience some pain here. like you said, let's hope it's short-lived and we get back on track. cheryl: real quick, airlines, cruise lines, should they get help from the government? >> that's a hard call. that's probably for other people to decide. for me as an investor, investment manage e i'm not going to hold those companies for a while, that's for sure. cheryl: interesting. okay. dave, thank you very much for being here. we appreciate it. >> thank you. lauren: jetblue was trading at a dollar. let's take a look at your money right now. it's been an ugly and volatile past few we