joining me now are jared bernstein and e.j. deion. thank you for being here. >> good to be here. >> jared, are you surprised at the job are growth we are seeing? despite republicans trying to block the president's policies for so many years and with them blocking the public sector he's been able through private sector growth to bring us back to are where we started in the recession at 6.1 unemployment rate. >> i think it is a little surprising. it's a symbol of just how resilient the american economy and the people in it really are. we know that obstructionists in congress have been not only blocking the president's agenda, but at least last year in 2013 were doing great harm to economic growth because of what economists call fiscal drag. that is by really trying to pull government support out of the economy in a way that slowed growth significantly in 2013, relative to this year. this year we have been doing better. as you suggested, the last time we saw 6.1% unemployment, it was on the way up to much worse times. we are headed in the

jared bernstein is joining me. >> pleasure. >> ben gurion airport is a big economic hub. it handled 14 million visitors last year. how big of an impact is this economically? >> a big impact. tourism is a very important part of the israeli economy. it accounted for 6% of the economy last year. that's about $12 billion. but just to put it in perspective, 6% of our economy is about a trillion. and this season started out particularly strong, in part economies that send tourists to israel and the u.s. is the most important, have been improving as well. the tourism is expected to climb 15% this year and they are off to a strong start. it's a big, serious economic problem, especially if it persists. >> and tourism specifically, that's a $12 billion season that ere's a lot at stake.. there's commentary on both sides of this. there's a new article that says israel would not gain much from peace. do you agree with that assessment? >> well, look, i'm going to speak specifically on the economy. >> i mean economically, of course. >> we have hotels that should be at 80% occupancy and

joining me now is jared bernstein.ou for being here. >> thank you, rev. >> are you surprised at how well the economy is doing with republicans being more focused on republicans than jobs. >> last year the congress was wacking the economy pretty hard with what we call fiscal drag. that is their policies were actually slowing down economic growth. you actually heard the president talk about that very compellingly today. and yet, as you mentioned, the second half of last year was pretty strong. the first quarter of this year was a very weak quarter. in the underlying pace of job growth, in fact in the first six months of this year, adding more payroll employment than any other first half of the year going back to the late '90s. yes, despite the fact that congress, as the president said, certainly isn't helping. >> you know, here is what republicans in congress have blocked or suggested this year. they blocked minimum wage hike. they blocked the fair pay act. they refused to spend jobless benefits. and some have called for

joining me you, jared bernstein and krystal ball. thank you for being here. >> thanks for having us. >> 700,000 jobs at risk and congress doesn't do anything on the highway trust fund? how dangerous is it for the economy? >> as dangerous are as anything i can think of for the economy. we're talking about a job market that's really gained mo men the item in recent months. i was talking about it with krystal and her colleagues when the last job report came out. over the last three months we are generating 270,000 jobs a month on average. a year ago it's 200,000. why was 2013 so much weaker than this year so far in the economy? a lot of it has to do with this kind of fiscal drag. that's when fiscal policy pushes the wrong way, creates headwinds against economic growth instead of tail winds we need. you teed it up this the introduction. if congress won't help the economy, at least don't hurt it. >> you know, krys, the white house is starting to push this week to make a deal on the highway trust fund. the president made the case this mont

let's go inside the numbers with jared bernstein. good to see you. >> nice to see you.e are we seeing the growth? >> you mentioned quantity, but quality is not much quite as much. however the two are related. and as the job market tightens up, we expect workers to have a bit more bargaining power. but we noticed in the report, which was a strong report, was that while the pace of job growth is accelerating, the pace of wage growth is not. it's steady at about 2% nominal, that means before inflation. now, inflation is also running at about 2%. and that means that paychecks are kind of flat in terms of buying power. so on the right track, but not there yet. >> another thing that is missing from this report from the top eight of job increases, construction. that added only 6 thourgs j,000. >> construction as a sector has been pretty flat for the past three months when as you mentioned, the rest of the job market has picked up speed. this has a lot to do with recent hiccups in the housing market. the housing market which of course terribly bottomed out in the great recessio

joining us is our policy priority senior fellow jared bernstein and irs commissioner doug schulman. doug, what do you think? is jack lew right? >> i think everybody is unhappy when they see an american company leave the u.s. and go domicile somebody else. nobody likes that. i think the issue is, i think perceived or real, people don't think the u.s. has a competitive tax structure so corporations are looking out for their bottom line. 23 they can find a merger that makes sense they're willing to move and taxes are a consideration. >> jared, they're calling them the unfate yotic, they are following the law? >> that's right. this is a tax avoidance, not tax evasion. it's legal. and i agree with much of what doug just said but i also think that jack lew has a point. it does strike one as economically unpatriotic to invert in order to lower your tax bill. >> let's talk about what this actually means, doug, in dollar terms. a recent irs study found something like $20 billion of corporate taxes would be lost over the next decade because of inversions. what does that mean for the bottom li

and jared bernstein, you're the best labor analyst there is. numbers. you yourself have pointed all this out. i go a step further on business investment. probably the most underrated factoid. everyone says consumption is 70% of gdp. if you look at it properly in intermediate stages and final stages of gdp, it's business investment that counts. and we're not having it. and you know why we're not having it? businesses are worried about the cost of obamacare. they're worried about overtaxation. they're worried about various regulations going on. they're friesen in time. we haven't tackled entitlements, businesses are worried they're going to have to pay the tax costs of that. all these things add up and i will be a little partisan here. this president has been demonstrably anti-business throughout his six years. demonstrably anti-business. even his own business counsel like jeff immelt have walked away from him because they've made no progress on any of his promises let's say for corporate tax reform. start there. >> i will not yield my time to th

we have jared bernstein on to duke it out.spinning on that facebook post that everyone has been talking about. do we have any privacy anymore? we're going to talk about what that means legally. we're going to talk about hot dogs. we have this great book "man bites dogs." hot dogs and facebook. >> go on. >> i'll be ranting about the culture in silicon valley. >> you said hot dogs and my mind went completely crazy. "the cycle" comes up next. off the beaten path: he said trust me: he implored alas, she is beginning to seriously wonder why she ever doubted the booking genius planet earth's number one accomodation site booking.com booking.yeah! >>> breaking news tops "the cycle" today. an intensifying arthur is going to make the mark for the first hurricane season. it's expected to strengthen to a category 2 hurricane with landfall tonight. our very own reporters are bracing for impact. >> if you look out, you've got the white caps and then everything is dark. we're going to be hammered with plenty of rain, strong wind, and enhance

joining me now is jared bernstein, former chief economist for vice president biden, and senior fellowh the center for on budget and policy priorities. jared, four years later they were wrong but they are still attacking. what is their strategy here? >> the strategy is to not let facts get in the way of the story. i appreciate what you and other folks here at the show are trying to do to bring the facts to light. as long as they can make up a story about dodd frank, the affordable care act, minimum wage, deficit taxes, they can continue to plumb their agenda which is an anti-government agenda. for example, corporate profitability over the last few years has hit the highest it e' been on record. the story that obama is somehow unfair to business doesn't fit the theme of dodd frank doing the things you played in the tape. if they can get everyone to believe the aca, dodd frank, et cetera, are having these factually incorrect effects they say, then they can push back on implementation. they have already grid locked the process. that's what it's all about. >> there is good news about state

peter morici and jared bernstein, thank you. >>> up next, sheryl sandberg and what she's actually saying about the facebook move. >>> and i want to mention something that i'm excited about. we started a live web stream show every wednesday at msnbc. as part of that show, we started a book club called book friends. this week our book is echoed by best-selling author from the "kite runner" author. head to thecycle.msnbc.com. he'll be posting his answers next week. there's still more "cycle" ahead. and you're talking to your rheumatologist about a biologic... this is humira. this is humira helping to relieve my pain. this is humira helping me lay the groundwork. this is humira helping to protect my joints from further damage. doctors have been prescribing humira for ten years. humira works by targeting and helping to block a specific source of inflammation that contributes to ra symptoms. humira is proven to help relieve pain and stop further joint damage in many adults. humira can lower your ability to fight infections, including tuberculosis. serious, sometimes fatal events, such as infec

. >> joining us now is jared bernstein, senior fellow at the center on budget priorities and cnbc contributor to have you here. we just want your reaction to what you heard there from heather bresch on these tax inversions. >> well, kelly, thank you for inviting me. i yield to no one in my disdain for these inversions. i think it's really kind of almost sidles up to being nonpatriotic the way these companies kind of shed that part of their american personality in order to take advantage of a tax cut overseas. that said, she made some sense when she talked about how the incentives really do point in that direction. we have a corporate tax code that is in many ways internationally uncompetitive. so, i certainly don't really like to hear those kinds of rationales, especially with a company that makes so much money off of federal programs like medicare. but she's right. she's right, we have policy to take care of in that realm. >> i did ask her, by the way, whether these savings she cited for doing this deal would be pass ode on to consumers. she didn't specifically say, but harold ford, i'm curi

i want to read a tweet from jared bernstein, a senior fellow at the center for budget and policy.e said, "june's unemployment rate fell for the right reasons, people getting jobs, not more people leaving the labor force." can you explain? guest: that number is right. a lot of the unemployment numbers are people picking and choosing what data they want to use. he wanted to pick some topline numbers. if he worked for john boehner, he would maybe be taking a different rate, which is at a historic low. he would pick of underemployment rate which is also very high, wage growth which is also lagging somewhat. depending on how you slice the numbers, you could say this is a great number or maybe not as great as it should be. host: where are the jobs being created right now? guest: it is roughly broad-based. a lot of service economy jobs. harphing everyone likes to on is that there are not a lot of manufacturing jobs, but that is more of a structural change in the economy. it gets to the same point, two sides of the same coin. if you're happy with what the numbers want to be, if you want t

also jared bernstein, a senior fellow at the center on budget and policy priorities and also a cnbc contributor yesterday were better than we expected but adp had been a little bit behind the jobs numbers. so what are the odds you think that that sort of strength shows up this time around? >> well, adp numbers unbiassed. what that means is some months it's higher, some months lower, but all averages out equal. could be a little high this month. but you know if you ask me what's my job estimate i say it's 280, the adp number. >> would you raise it after you figured out what the numbers were for adp? >> we were with the consensus. you know, based on all the other date fa we were seeing. >> closer to 210? >> 225 i think, i raised it to 280. >> the number's unbiassed. >> the number is unbiassed. >> the person that puts it together is very biassed. >> i've got a computer model -- >> i like that we're putting you up against bernstein. wow, this is going to be, whoa, boy, sparks flying here when these guys -- who's going to be able to enable the administration the most here? >> i'm unbiassed, too. >>