jonathan: big time. you pointed out that article, the former minneapolis fed president looking at the parallel between now and 1965 and the risk that we repeat the 1970's again. could you imagine five years ago him writing a piece like that. tom: he has been opinionated, very different from the approach of william dudley. he has had an outlier approach, even when he was at the fed. jonathan: a much more aggressive parts of interest rate increases that i expect they will. risking a repeat of the great inflation of the 1970's. it is so hard to reconcile that work. tom: is that in irresponsible comment? jonathan: i think it is in line with the consensus. lisa: he is in line with bill dudley, who is also sounding the alarm. the former minneapolis fed president was incredibly dovish, throwing out the family fisher model of employment and inflation, saying something has changed, talking about the 1970's. the rhetoric has been dramatic. jonathan: let's see if the current official at the minneapolis fed will cha

alongside tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro coming together with kailey leinz. -- jonathan ferro, togetherith kailey leinz. lisa back tomorrow. tom: the market pricing of what is going on in china is tangible. it is off the radar this morning, but it is real. evergrande paper south. jonathan: a cpi report and america. wells fargo suggesting 6.9 pi. -- 6.9% cpi. tom: i think 9% is my monday mass. that is something we have never seen before. that is the uncertainty that we have right now. jonathan: david kostin and that he met goldman looking at 5100 on the s&p next year. if things get dicey, can the fed doing thing about it -- do anything about it? kailey: even in the face of the market clearly being upset about uncertainty around the omicron variant, the fed maybe playing catch up era's we are faced with these kind of numbers in the u.s. jonathan: throw in the things kailey is talking about, you wonder how much the fed has got ahead of it to slow this economy down with him economy with a 69 handle on the ism. tom: the partial differentials is you want to bring the inflation component over

jonathan: thank you.he issue this administer asian has at the moment -- this administration has at the moment. lisa: higher prices are not leading through to higher quality of life. how do they bridge that gap? you are seeing sign that inflation is starting to hit wages, but can it hit quickly enough to change the scenario? jonathan: for the cpi report, we can turn to bloomberg's cameron crise. 6.8 percent the median estimate. what is the playbook for this one at 8:30 eastern? cameron: get ready for fixed income, at least, to move, and possibly equities as well. we are so used to the labor market being the primary driver of market movement in the economy, but if you look through last year, both the equity market and fixed income have reacted considerably more to cpi releases than they have two nonfarm payroll releases. the standard deviation of moves on the december 2023 euro-dollar contract, for example, fell five basis points just in the 30 minutes after a cpi release. it is kind of obvious, i guess, bu

this is bloomberg. ♪ jonathan: live from new york, i'm jonathan ferro.his is bloomberg "real yield." increasing volatility limiting issuance this week. total sales nearing 4 billion euros. and even quieter week for junk bond issuance in the u.s. a single offering from starwood properties raising close to $400 million. sticking with credit, earlier this week, bob michele said ditching government bonds and get back into corporate credit. bob: this is an opportunity to get rid of any remaining government bonds you have, and then go back into the credit market, go back into investment grade and high-yield. there may be some headwinds from the omicron variant. we will see over the next couple of weeks and months but for now corporate profitability looks good. i want to be a part of that. jonathan: bob is still with us along with frances donald and krishna memani. build on the why, when you have a rally on the screen. why rotate out of that and get back into credit? bob: i will take a page from frances' book. three hours ago, it looked good, maybe three hours

jonathan: lisa, why it break of 130? more restrictions in the u.k., potentially in the next 24 hours. even as we get optimistic and encouraging news. two words. preliminary and three. it is a plumbing study. next up, you need three pfizer shots. a big push for boosters. lisa: you talked about what is going on in the united kingdom. they have a higher bar of how much risk they are willing to go through. the u.s. emphasizing a booster but not necessarily restricting travel. jonathan: let's take -- touch on the markets. on the nasdaq 100, up 73, advancing .4%. there is a ton to talk about in this market. yields are lower by a basis point. down a basis point. around 70 off the back of that story. tom: it really bears watching. i know it is a big deal, but this is a grind worth watching. jonathan: that headline, the omicron variant neutralized by three pfizer doses. lisa: it is likely to bring forward the rate hike. it is a key question. we will get the job openings survey for the month of october. we have seen the number of

jonathan: matt miller, kailey leinz, jonathan ferro.hink misses miller did not think it a great investment at the time. [laughter] a lot of men right now telling their wives, let me get it. this is bloomberg. ♪ every day in business brings something new. so get the flexibility of the new mobile service designed for your small business. introducing comcast business mobile. you get the most reliable network with nationwide 5g included. and you can get unlimited data for just $30 per line per month when you get four lines or mix and match data options. available now for comcast business internet customers with no line-activation fees or term contract required. see if you can save by switching today. comcast business. powering possibilities. ♪ jonathan: more of the same. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." up 13 on the s&p. the nasdaq 100 up 5/10 of 1%. the russell does not sit this out, up six. the story for many people the relationship between the equity market and bond market. let's talk about that. switching to the bond market for just a

jonathan: let's get it back. the christmas spirit with our global allocation portfolio fund at -- we think any backup and long-term rates will be contained given a still insatiable appetite for yield. how much of what we are seeing is that and how much is worried about the future of this economy? >> good morning. i think what you are seeing now is the unexpected uncertainty over the virus. we thought, we hope this was behind us. that's not the case. that is why you are seeing the modest fallback in yields. it is worth highlighting that even a few weeks back when inflation was pushing against 30 year highs and nominal gdp was pushing against multi-decade highs come the 10 year was at 1.65, not something that would have made sense to were three years ago. a lot of it comes back to the longer-term secular trend that has nothing to do with that near-term inflation outlook or the virus. it is about the fact that we are in a low yield world for decades. we have an aging population. people need income. when you see the

jonathan: tom keene. lisa abramowicz and jonathan ferro. your equity market unchanged. tom: i tried. -- lisa: i tried. jonathan: this show has a real year and feel to it. [laughter] jonathan: a beautiful one in new york on radio and on tv. this is bloomberg. >> with the first word news, the u.s. house is voted to raise the nation's debt ceiling by $2.5 trillion. extending the government's borrowing authority past next year. congressional election -- it also averts a potential default and now goes to president biden for his signature. the biden administration is considering whether to impose sanctions on china's largest chipmaker filter in an effort to limit beijing's access to advanced technology. the u.s. reportedly will face eight more chinese companies on a military-industrial complex blacklist. one of them is dji. one of the most widely used vaccines in the world doesn't provide enough antibodies to neutralize the omicron variant according to recent data in hong kong. those findings may have consequences for millions of people relying on the shot to protect them. in

jonathan: can you?re talking about flux ability of the federal reserve -- about flexibility of the federal reserve hike if they wanted to, to do qe forever. kailey: i have no idea. the adverbs you could use here are very high in the amount. but i think this will be contrasted against the boe and the fed next week. what is the ecb doing, going perhaps the other direction in a world where the other majors are going in the other direction? jonathan: in e.m., it is much more simple. sledgehammer. just knocking it forward. fx in e.m. right now, 8.6% over the year. we could for emerging market currencies. that is even with 150 basis point hikes coming out of central banks like brazil, and it is not over. 150 yesterday, and 150 perhaps still do come in february. lisa: how much is jay powell going to be banker to the world and respond to some of the weakness you are seeing around the world and some of these more vulnerable economies, partly in response to an expected rate hiking cycle next year? jonathan: this

jonathan: we mentioned the word from jonathan vol up and credit suisse -- elephant golub -- jonathan golub and credit suisse. the current environment, inflation is not translating into higher rates. that is your huge benefit to start. lisa: you're getting a bit of a lift on the front end, but not the long end, and that is what matters. caroline: good morning. -- jonathan: good morning. coming up shortly, wei lee of black rock. this is bloomberg. leigh-ann: with the first word news, i'm leigh-ann gerrans. boris johnson warns the u.k. is facing a tidal wave of omicron infections. the prime minister set a deadline for the end of the year for the country's to vaccination program. the number of new omicron cases in the u.k. almost doubled on sunday from a day earlier. a new study says two doses -- it underscores another finding released that emphasizes the need for booster shots. in kentucky, the death toll from the tornadoes on friday may be less than originally feared. still, at least 50 people are believed to have been killed. kentucky's governor says more than 1000 homes were destroye

this is bloomberg. ♪ jonathan: from new york city, i'm jonathan ferro.s is bloomberg "real yield." sales of new bonds topping $10 billion this week. the bank of nova scotia meeting to me with the largest euro covered bond of the year. u.s. junk bond sales spring back to life with two debut issuers coming to market. back with us are lisa shalett, jim keenan, zach griffiths. anything to worry about from credit? you are there every day. what do you see? jim: credit is the more important part of the markets right now. it's a pretty solid foundation for credit markets the last couple years, fundamentals have remained strong. general deleveraging that you have seen across the markets as you see the recovery in earnings was pandemic. next year, really solid foundation from the demand side of the equation, both at the household level and business investment as they start to compete. you will see some volatility but dispersion is a bigger story. that is volatility caused by some of the cost inflation in some sectors. that will hurt some sectors, benefit others. f

jonathan: we are having -- tom: we are having challenges. jonathan: technical issues.e is still going. tom: ok. carl, thank you very much. some audio challenges. technology was unleashed on carl and challenges as well. what i find so important is that he focuses on the industries of america so from jp morgan as well. the real story is about how companies adapted. given all the gloom overlay, let us remind ourselves, even with market -- the market upset, 30 5000, 566, it has been a being up year. jonathan: this came from bank of america. the producer just shot this one to me. "the zeitgeist is that the fed is tightening into a slowdown, but the economy hate slowing and the fed has not even started tightening. strong data will meet -- when needed -- mean inflation, a much more aggressive fed and real yields." tom: into the weekend reading, that single phrases the debate, a higher terminal rate. mohammed is saying there is a higher terminal rate and we need to have respect for it and a lot of other people, i think of michael at jp morgan modeling it out, a lower terminal

jonathan: tom, i do not know.0 breakthrough cases that i will not assume anything, but there is a breakout in the club. they can apply to postpone the game. any game has to be played. i believe they have 13 players or more from the a list available. we will see, tom. i think they have to get pcr tests. tom: i do not understand these sports guys being unvaccinated. jonathan: on this occasion, i do not know if that is the case. i will wait for information on that. a rally in this equity market. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: president leo called. the president said it would be a benefit if he makes a commitment . china warned the u.s. that they will pay for the diplomatic boycott of the winter olympics. they have decided not to send any officials to february's games. they say the olympics are not a time for manipulation. setting records in november at 22% in dollar terms. the data shows the global demand for chinese goods, which has been strong through the pandemic. bloomberg news will continue to do al

this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. jonathan: we begin with the big issue.ve spread on wall street. >> a wide range of views. >> an extremely wide band of probability. >> 4400 year end target. >> we have a 5300 target. >> this is not normal. we are in an environment where it gets tricky. >> this qualifies for the risk on trade. >> there is a lot of uncertainty. >>

jonathan: -- jonathan: your equity market is 12 points. 139.36.pital releasing some indications of what they are seeing. the main observations include most patients had not been oxygen dependent. this is a departure from previous waves. as we started to get a clearer picture of this, it seems like it is less candy -- less contagious but more severe. tom: i'm not sure about clear as well. this is so important. when your doctor speaks, you listen. it was made clear to me that hospitalizations is the number one thing he is watching. jonathan: dr., help us with this data. what are we learning so far? >> it reminds me of when i was in the hospital seeing patients. you know what is going on. if the patient was getting better or was basically stable, that was good news. here, we have a situation where we are not sure. there is a lot of uncertainty. it is not all bad. you are not seeing so many people going to the hospital sick, which would be bad. on the other hand, we are seeing information that it is very transmissible, even among those who are vaccina

jonathan: on tens, he's been right. when he said months and months ago the highs are in, we have been lower since. to say that at front end of the curve as well, scratching my head, but i feel the same way i felt when he said this about tens six months ago, and he is saying bp we have peak at the front end. kailey: andkailey: maybe the bulk of the flattening is all wary -- is over. the question is, what is 2022 look like if you're faced with a normalization of policy more quickly than we previously anticipated. jonathan: what is normal? that word, we keep picking up on it. what is normal in the world of nominal growth where it is, where inflation is close to 7% and rates are still new a bottom? tom: for anyone tuning in on radio and tv, here's the conundrum of this monday. how does america react to 9% nominal gdp? no one has a clue. jonathan: equities of 16 on the s&p. greg valliere of agf investments, that conversation coming up. heard on radio, seen on tv, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: the first word news, i'm ritika g

jonathan: kailey leinz, matt miller, jonathan ferro.bloomberg surveillance ." ♪ >> we could end up with a good year, not a great year, in 2022. >> the markets are underestimating the fed's capacity to tighten. >> there's a lot of room for good news priced into the dollar. -- >> the cycle easily carries to the middle of this decade. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: from new york city, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio pete alongside kailey leinz and matt miller, i am jonathan ferro. equity

jonathan: that curve is flatter.isa: the issue to me, is it significant in terms of a recession predictor? people say this is typically the most reliable indicator of a downturn, but we are years away from that. jim reed of deutsche bank saying it is typically 18 months after inversion, and we are probably a year or two from inversion. jonathan: do you think they want to hike if this is the direction of travel? lisa: do you think it really matters? bob michele of jp morgan was saying yesterday this is just people watching out of their positions. right now the balance of risk with inflation is perhaps necessitating them to move because otherwise, the market will do it for them. tom: i hate to say this, that is the smartest comment i've heard today, which is this idea of don't underestimate washing out of positions. i think that is important. jonathan: yields higher by three or four basis points on tens, up to 1.44 percent. your equity market futures up 31, advancing 0.7%. equities pushing higher on the s&p 500. euro-d

jonathan: he is not the only one., good to catch up good senator manchin, inflation israel, alarming, going up. joe: when heat walked out of his office yesterday to talk with reporters, he quoted his grandfather, who said unmanaged death makes us cowardly in our decisions. heat also gave another line. we are seeing things unfold that allow us to prepare better, specifically mentioning the fed meeting this week. this is a senator concerned about not just spending too much, but also potentially risking the solvency of existing programs to care. he has been consistent on this. it does not look like he is ready to vote on anything. there is nothing to vote on. the parliamentarian has yet to rule. lisa: are we using senator manchin to paper over underlying disagreements in the democratic party? joe: you are getting somewhere. we hear frequently that there are democrats who say, i am glad he said it. he is representing moderate democrats, but when it comes to joe manchin or kyrsten sinema, they speak for themselves. they ha

jonathan: i couldn't agree more. it has been a month since they announced tapering, and now we are having a conversation. what has changed in a month to say that maybe we should accelerate things? tom: what use here he is a grizzled pro like bob michele getting down to the nitty-gritty. what changed in 24 hours? that is a whipsaw. for people not in the game on this, we are all talking about the market action. we are forgetting about the losses earned and made over the last 48 hours. i really wonder what the carnage is out there. jonathan: my final question to bob michele is usually football related, so we will keep it consistent. tom: not alabama-georgia. jonathan: not alabama and georgia this weekend. another championship for liverpool? bob: another championship for liverpool. off the charts. they are a goalscoring machine. jonathan: bob michele of jp morgan asset management, good to see you. you asked if he was comfortable -- we asked if he was more comfortable get back to 2% on tens or liverpool winning a champion

jonathan: the stock is in the green -- for 2021. jonathan: the stock is in the green. it is opposite in the china market, isn't it? red is the up because red is a lucky color? matt: i have been programmed to understand that an up arrow should be green and a down arrow should be read. if i were talking about a bond price, i could understand showing down in red. but if i am talking about yield rising, i want to show it up in green. jonathan: people listening to this conversation can guess that this is the week after christmas. joining us is tom from strategas. it has been so difficult to call , even if you nail the inflation number for 2021. would it help you and your bond the ark it -- in your bond market to get the 10 year yield forecast right? tom: clearly it did not. the big story of 2021 is that 10-year gilts have paused around 1.50% today. we peaked at 1.75%. the second story is that two-year yields have been rising steadily for the last several months here. there is a tie to get to between these two because two-year yields have been rising sooner than folks expect

jonathan: they are looking at credit as well. your equity market this morning up 58 on the s&p, advancing a little more than 1%. yields lower at the long end yesterday, higher at the front end. this morning, higher through the whole curve to 1.4851%. a meeting on december 16 you don't want to forget at the ecb. before that we have to deal with the federal reserve. crude approaching $69.11. lisa: throughout the morning, i am sure we will be talking about positioning and what this means in terms of how much conviction there was built into the market versus people trying to risk managing to year end. day two on capitol hill, fed chair jay powell, treasury secretary janet yellen testifying before the house financial services committee. the p word, transitory -- the t word, transitory, dead. how much are they going to respond to exactly that dynamic you were just talking about, the contracting yield curve? the gap between five-year and 30 year treasury yields now the lowest going back to the height of the pandemic, march 2020. does th

jonathan: portfolio manager there. good morning. tom keene, lisa abramowicz and jonathan ferro.r equity market is advancing 1.3% on the s&p 500. the s&p advancing from yesterday. positive follow-through on the nasdaq, too. yields are higher on the back end and front end. the 145, let's call it come along 44.95. apple is one to watch. katie of morgan stanley raising her price target to $200, in line with the dan ives, who we will catch up with in a moment. up 2%. " despite a consistent immaterial revenue contribution from new products and services over time, apple shares do not bake in the impact from new product launches." that is the view from morgan stanley. this is up by about 25% from yesterday. tom: there is on apple. the interview of the day with dan ives, managing director at wedbush securities, he has been the apple bull. i have to ask the obvious question, do you have to respond to katie who britty and go up by a dollar or two? dan: yeah. but what i think kait is talking about -- think katie is talking about a similar to our checks. i think this is a $3 trillion market

jonathan: this is bloomberg. ♪ jonathan: your stock market is positive, up at on the s&p.from new york city on radio and tv with tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. advances in the equity market as pfizer biontech say a third dose of their covid vaccine neutralizes the omicron variant. the biggest two day pop on the s&p so far, the biggest day yesterday back to march. yields higher, in and around 1.50. 1.50 in important number for the team hsbc. i want to point out, the survey coming out at 10:00 maybe of interest. we are supposed to talk interest rates but i will give it over to you because it is an extraordinary fun time for a team called quest him. -- called westham. when the guy from richmond went to westham, that was the start of great things jonathan:. this team is looking good this year. the worst -- the most well-known westham supporter, steve major. as part of the exchange, i promised you we would talk about westham. what are performance. steve: all that matters is we are above arsenal. jonathan: wears is this coming from? how much money is there t

jonathan: 10's at 1.51. lisa: not only were they not at zero, they were above where the 10 year was. he was a deeply inverted yield curve, highlighting some of the precarious neighbor -- nature of the fed's conversation as a deal with the cpi price. jonathan: the number 6.8%, your meeting estimate. kailey: it will come in hot quÉbec to be fair, we are likely knew it would come in hot pit i was talking to michael mccabe -- it will come in hot. to be fair, we likely knew it would come in hot. i was talking to michael mckee -- jonathan: how do we respond to downside surprise? if we get one? lisa: great question. do people pushback or say that the fed will stay the course, because right now, even if you get a downside surprise, you are getting higher prices at the grocery store, at the gas station, wherever you go, affecting consumer confidence. i do not think anything will really push them off course unless it is a dramatic downside surprise, which would be bad news all around. jonathan: we went from cpi wednes

jonathan: the sterling right now, 172.46. say good morning. >> let's look at the big movers this morning. a lot of rebound in the tech stocks. a big reason why we are seeing the broader markets higher. up about 2% after closing at a record high yesterday. video actually -- nvidia actually fell from its high yesterday. intel up about 8%. this on the news that the company will list publicly shares of its unit first in my autonomous driving vehicles. flip up the board and another big reason why you are seeing this has to do what we are doing -- what we are seeing in the omicron space. good news on the vaccine front. this anti-body treatment is developing with vero -- viable technology in the u.s. and a changing of the guard at u.s. airlines. doug will step down and robert will take over. people become ceo at the end of march, start of payroll next year. tom: what is your study on the clothes in the afternoon? romaine: we are down to 23 this morning, say you are seeing a lot of that volatility in the short term. longer-term, some

jonathan ferro. s&p advancing on the way to an all-time high, .2% on the s&p. yields not much on tens. the euro-dollar, fx market unchanged. crude negative more than 1%, down $.82 on the session. the word from the vice president is i am not giving up and the president is not giving up and the stakes are too high. kailey: the white house has been trying to strike and optimistic tone after joe manchin was a no on bill back better. but what does the path forward look like? will it be as robust as the biden administration had envisioned or what is the final warm going to look like and how much money is going to cap put into the u.s. economy -- is going to be put into the u.s. economy. jonathan: mohammed is joining us. the approval rating of leadership, is it as simple as saying it is going and one direction, heading lower? hamed: it is stuck and we don't know where it is going. this team started off with a promising approval rating, especially on the pandemic. six in 10 approved of how they were handling

jonathan: next up, chairman powell. the question is did anything we saw this morning change his outlook for the rest of the central bank in terms of whether guidance will look like? came in right in line, maybe not. jonathan: will have the conversation on the open. mohamed el-erian, columnist and queens college president. kate moore blackrock, david kelly, erin browne, a monster lineup into the next hour. we will catch up with the outgoing ceo and incoming ceo of southwest. i know you want to talk about what they have to discuss in this labor market. lisa: the idea that they cannot hire people but they cannot keep people in their seats. attrition has been a big thing. brian moynihan was talking about that with david westin. how much does this disrupt service? you can tell us about this after your experience going back to london. how much is their problem with airline services given they cannot people back into seats? jonathan: think i've given you idea of how i feel about this. lisa: i think you need to elaborate about

jonathan: not an exact science.ast rate hiking cycle on the backend of 2016 the difference was north of 120. now it is sub 80 basis points. i wonder if you think that that would make a difference? lisa: the reporting and work being done by analysts, you haven't seen, not for decades this flat, weak yield curve overall in seeing that rate hike from the u.s. unlikely. we've talked about how shocking it is to have a real yield that is negative in the u.s. nominal yields negative in europe still the ecb is wondering if they have a hawkish surprise. will they say that we are not happy with a inflation rate, lower than in the u.s. but still above 5%. jonathan: there is still another day to come. the ecb and bank of england. are we done with the bank of england? lisa: maybe we are done having faith in them to be reliable in any way, but it will be fascinating. how do they deal with the fact that they are facing omicron variant and potential restrictions? they promised something that it seems unlikely they will be able to d

jonathan: there is a difference.et a flu shot, i get a flu shot, and typically i do not care if kailey got a flu shot. matt: i would prefer she did. kailey: noted. jonathan: this is bloomberg. ♪ hey, angie! you forgot your phone! hey lou! angie forget her phone again? yep. lou! mom said she could save up to $400 on her wireless bill by switching to xfinity internet and mobile. with nationwide 5g at no extra cost. and lou! on the most reliable network, lou! smart kid, bill. oh oh so true. and now, the moon christmas special. gotta go! take the savings challenge at xfinitymobile.com/mysavings or visit an xfinity store to learn how our switch squad makes switching fast and easy this holiday season. ♪ >> we are going to have a very volatile your ahead of us. >> we haven't seen is how they react when the ecb money gets pulled back. >> the buy the dip half-life has been shrinking. >> we won companies that aren't predicated on free money. >> the story ahead has got to be earnings. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with to

matt: no gold -- jonathan: no gold? matt miller, kailey leinz and jonathan ferro.daq 100, up 35. equities up .2%. in the bond market, yields are up around one basis point to 1.4945. when i think back to the surprises of 2021, i think about calling the economy accurately and if that benefits you. when you look at the 10 year, if i told you where inflation would be, could you guess where the 10 year would finish the year? matt: absolutely not. especially considering the hawkish pivot. jonathan: inflation, very close to seven. sarah house pointing out she expects a seven handle through q1 2022. more to come on radio and tv. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." ritika: i am ritika gupta. there is more evidence the omicron variant has a milder symptoms than other strains of the coronavirus. a lower rate of hospitalizations than the earlier ways. a seven day average of people hospitalized just under 9000. elon musk is closing in on his goal of raising his stake in tesla by 10%. he has sold another $1 billion worth of stock in the electric car company he runs. he is selling

jonathan: agreed. futures on the s&p -- lisa: hard not to. jonathan: yes.m new york city, this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ jonathan: this is how you expect to set up going into payrolls, unchanged on the s&p. we are positive just a point on the s&p, up by 0.03%. your data 60 minutes away. we will catch up with ellen's and their debts with ellen zentner -- with ellen zentner in a moment. 10 year yield lower come of curve flatter this morning. your 10 year yield down by almost two. that is a theme, how this market response to this data, as we approach that fed being on september 15, the day after a bank of england decision. finish on cable. sterling wicker on the day. the hawks losing just a little but of conviction, wavering just a little bit on the omicron variant. are we omicron dependent on threadneedle street? tom: we certainly heard that from andrew pekosz. the omicron overlay which was not there three or four weeks ago is there this morning. jonathan: when you go into that blackout period, you want some guidance, not conditional this, conditional that. that is w

jonathan: send our best to the team.ullen martin of the schwab center for financial research -- collin martin of the schwab center for financial research. don't wait just to roll things off. don't wait to cease investment. maybe thing about selling them. kailey: we heard consistently, there is a difference between what the fed should do and what they actually will do. there's a big gap. jonathan: there's an industry and complaining about the federal reserve. it has really ramped up for the last 10 years. yields lower, to basis points on tens. i just could tell you are fed up as the week grows older. matt is getting a little more upset about the post-christmas coverage going into the new year. futures advancing 0.2%. on radio and on tv, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i ritika gupta. today will be the second time this month that the leaders of the u.s. and russia have talked. the white house says president biden and vladimir putin will discuss a range of topics, but the issue of ukraine is likely to

jonathan: i wish i knew that, tom. [laughter] tom: i just got to say, you wake up from the "surveillance" map which is there -- "surveillance" nap, what is there? jonathan: when we saw there was a case in america yesterday, that was expertly -- that was absolutely ridiculous. of course there's a case in america. how contagious is this? have you got any idea right now? tom: no i don't. lisa does. the theme here is ferro and keene have no idea what is going on, and lisa is totally clued in. i'm going to look at the vix, 29.51, little bit of angst. jonathan: i'm going to look at crude, $65.78. jp morgan looking for $150 on brent in two years time. we will try to get that for you on the bloomberg terminal and on bloomberg.com as soon as we can. tom: adapting to all of this is brent schutte of northwestern mutual. there's been a run on energy and then a pullback. how do you manage sector weights at northwestern mutual when we see such segmented performance, occluding -- performance, including an oil? brent: i think you try

jonathan: done, we all go home? lisa: leading the witness. jonathan: it's fine. i am really starting to recruit people to this effort. lisa: people do not want to write off the uncertainty of a bank of england decision. i am biased now because i hope they hike simply so we can get you on the phone for you to say the year was not over on wednesday. tongue-in-cheek. you promised you would call in from wherever you were. we could see a picture out your window. jonathan: a video call? lisa: i want you to do a zoom call. i think it would be fabulous. everyone has written off covid will stop there are peripheral concerns, but no one actually cares about the covid pandemic as a major risk going into 2022. jonathan: what mike said about the u.k. being a fantastic case study, it is because the amount of testing we do, the fantastic sequencing we have, we have good data to work with. caroline: worrying data as it stands. two hundred thousand cases per day in the united kingdom will set the fact that it is so transmissible and you have relatively high vaccination rates in t

with matt miller, kailey leinz, and jonathan ferro, this is bloomberg -- i'm jonathan ferro.s is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ every day in business brings something new. so get the flexibility of the new mobile service designed for your small business. introducing comcast business mobile. you get the most reliable network with nationwide 5g included. and you can get unlimited data for just $30 per line per month when you get four lines or mix and match data options. available now for comcast business internet customers with no line-activation fees or term contract required. see if you can save by switching today. comcast business. powering possibilities. jonathan: a sprinkle of economic data to close out the year. initial jobless claims any second. live on tv and radio with kailey leinz and matt miller, i'm jonathan ferro. futures up six. 198,000, below 200,000. the median estimate 206,000 come the previous read 205,000's. they are the numbers we want to see. 198,000. kailey: that is the lowest we have seen in decades. this is the week that ended december 25 so there is holiday impact. the

jonathan: dr. chris beyrer there. good morning. kailey leinz, matt miller, jonathan ferro.e advance one third of 1%. tom and lisa abramowicz will be back with us at some point. maybe they will wait until the new year. euro-dollar about 0.1% down. a brilliant just now to talk about the fortis ugo -- about the pharmaceutical companies, geoff meacham. i want to talk about mrna technology. it felt like a huge step forward 12 months ago. i wonder how things stack up 12 months later. geoff: that is a great question. mrna technology has shown durability of affect. the pfizer and moderna vaccines look like they do their job, limit hospitalizations, prevent severe infections, prevent death and a lot of patients, but the question is still unknown whether they will be as infectious as flu or cardiovascular diseases. kailey: when we talk about those vaccines that exist for covid-19, talking about a third booster in israel, how much are they revenue generators for companies like ours and moderna? geoff: for the most part, -- it is perfectly normal to have antibody levels go down over ti

jonathan: i merry christmas to you, sir.york city, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: global coronavirus viruses hit more than 1.4 million infections. the seven day rolling average was 841000 and that's up 49% from just a month ago. the u.k. government has ruled out tighter coronavirus restrictions. the secretary urged people to be careful especially at new year's celebrations. the government will need to take action if necessary. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> drop gains are significant. wage gains are noticeable so all in all, i think households will remain favorable to stomach the higher prices. kailey: the chief economist talking about people who own homes. you have to have a lot of wealth to buy a home right now in the market continues to be hot and that's true in the new york tri-state area. matt: i think across the country the market has been hot. prices have just gone up up and away. question i have is how can your average american -- we showed clips yesterday of kamala harris talking about real americans and working people. how

jonathan: i think the latter.as the initial panic and people wanted more space, but if you break out the skew towards larger space, it really is a function of what i was talking about before, the higher end so more strength and that inherently is a larger property sizes. we are looking at the average size of property skimming larger in terms of what is selling. i think a bigger part of that is more affluent people who are more active in the market. lisa: we have been talking about the salt tax deduction and the state and local tax induction which matters for new york city real estate. how much has this been a factor in people's purchasing versus renting part discussions in general for potential homeowners? jonathan: the salt tax because it came into effect in 2018, the market had to use to price it. we are looking at a housing market that dropped in value 14% to 15%. there is a modification -- if there is a modification of that salt tax, you will see a jump in prices as a result because it has already been priced

jonathan: what year for earnings in america. good morning. "bloomberg surveillance this is -- this is "bloomberg surveillance," live on tv and radio. very close to all-time highs. the story of 2021, earnings in america, fantastic. the story of 2022 could be the challenge to multiples from a tighter federal reserve. kailey: the bold thesis, i doesn't matter if you are seeing policy normalization as a threat of emerging variance, as long as corporate profits can hang in there. i would note that as we have seen this more hawkish pivot from the fed, earnings expectations for the year ahead have actually picked up over the course of december, no looking at 8.7% growth for 2022. jonathan: what would you consider tightening to be at the federal reserve, given where nominal growth is, given where inflation is? how much work to they have to do? matt: they have to finish the paper. the sequencing is a question. do they start to raise rates for they wind down the balance sheet? i wonder if they really do wind down the balance sheet. keep in mind we were

this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. jonathan: we begin with the big issue.ext stop is december 15. >> jay powell saying it is time for them to exit the market. >> it tells you the fed wants optionality. >> chair powell has shown he is doing what every good central banker does. >> this is powell building in flexibility. >> buying himself a ton of flexibility. >> it is the committee show. >>

jonathan: can we pinch it? just for the holidays. jonathan: here comes the economic data.r equity market up a single point on the s&p 500, yields going nowhere at 1.43. with your economic data, here is michael mckee. michael: we are seeing a couple of numbers ahead of retail sales. 31.9, one point up from the month of november. that is good news. strength in manufacturing in this area. import prices coming up .7%, that is less than last month. take out petroleum and it is up 7% as well. it is not just oil and oil prices have been going down. retail sales, we are up just .3% -- last month it was 7%. the control group down .1%, last month up 1.2%. we do not know why this is. it is possible it has something to do with omicron, although the omicron story was not out until the end of november. it may be people pushed sales earlier in the year because they were expecting shortages. this brings down the growth path for the second quarter or the fourth quarter but it does not necessarily made terrible news. we will have to figure that out. take a quick look at some of the componen

"the reidout" with jonathan is up next. hey, jonathan? >> thank you very much. have a good evening. >> thanks. >>> good evening, everyone. i'm jonathan in tonight for joy reid. we begin "the reidout" tonight with american on edge. covid once again threatening to up end the travel holiday plans as the pandemic marchs into the third year. this time it's coming from the highly transmissible omicron variant. due to the covid spike broadway shows are cancelling performances, "saturday night live" dropped its live audience and musical guests and the rockets -- rockettes cancelled the rest of their season. the long testing lines are back. we're also seeing a mini outbreak in congress. senators elizabeth warren and cory booker tested positive for covid. new restrictions in place in europe including another lockdown in the netherlands while closer to home here in washington d.c. the city's indoor mask mandate goes back into effect tomorrow morning with a stricter vaccination mandate for government workers. it's the same now familiar feeling of dread harkening back to mar

jonathan, thanks so much for the update, jonathan _ come.r the update, jonathan joseph - come. jonathan, thanks so much for the update, jonathan joseph is - the update, jonathanjoseph is there. let's bring you some sport with a full round—up from the bbc sport centre. good evening. deja vu for england, we start with cricket because out in australia they have been bowled out for 185 on the opening day of the third ashes test in melbourne. it is a match england have to win to keep the series alive but it was the same old problem with the bat as our sports correspondentjoe wilson reports. a new match, new innings, a new beginning for nine minutes. haseeb hameed out for zero. england recalled zak crawley and pat cummins got him for 12 and that's why he won the toss and bowled. melbourne's boxing day test is a spectator occasion. it is a huge ground. proof of vaccination was required. no restrictions on the capacity. and no limits on pat cummins who got dawid malan for 14. butjoe root had the touches which put him in a different class, which took

jonathan: just sort of that at 172. lisa: $201. it will be fascinating to see how people make safeties trades with these big tech stocks. that underpins the calls we heard yesterday from morgan stanley. >> up 3%. unreal. let's talk about the market. we are with a founder and ceo. your words, the risk free asset, the bedrock of the financial market, what did you mean by that? >> it is displaying signs of chaos. if you look at the vix, it is on the move -- up and down, traveling quite a bit last week. so much of this risk equation is priced off the risk-free asset class, and i would argue that it is not risk-free. might be, from a regulatory standpoint or a pension allocation of risk, they think about their portal is, but here is an asset class that is moving around and displaying a lot of volatility. it is -- it's fundamentals are going through a regime change that is deteriorating. if you think about a default and atypical sense of a credit bearing bond, inflation is effectively a default. a creeping default or a risk-free security

jonathan capehart is in for lawrence o'donnell. good evening, jonathan. >> good evening, ayman. what a powerful way to end the show tonight. a really terrific commentary on your part and a nice setup for the discussion i'm going to have with michael eric dyson later on in the show. we both wrote about governor northam and the black face scandal from a couple of years ago, so you just set things up for us nicely. ayman, happy new year. >> thank you, my friend. happy new year to you as well. >>> and on the eve of new year's eve, the united states has shattered its coronavirus case count. nearly half a million cases yesterday, and today one tracker shows today's case count was just shy of 600,000 cases. florida set yet another new record level of more than 58,000 new cases on wednesday. and despite all of this, people are still planning travel, parties, and events for new year's eve even as experts predict infection rates will continue to grow. the pre-omicron record high for average daily cases was 251,000 set back in january 2021 before vaccines were widely available. more than 8

jonathan head, thank you, jonathan head in l head, thank you, jonathan head in bangkok.of the grenfell tower fire has told tower fire has told the official inquiry that governments concealed the extent of risks to building safety, and it should be seen as one of the "major scandals of our time". 72 people died injune 2017 when the tower block in west london caught fire. our home affairs correspondent tom symonds reports. there had been warnings of what might happen. a fire in knowsley on merseyside. another in irvine, north ayrshire. and a third in southwark, south london. eerily similar — flames spreading up the outside, lives put at risk, lives lost. but, did the government and other public bodies spot the risk? take action? that, and much more is what the grenfell inquiry will investigate in its finalfive months. this inquiry is not a game of cat and mouse where core participants might hope that their witnesses might smuggle something past counsel the inquiry or that counsel to the inquiry might miss a trick. core participants including the government and other indust

i'm jonathan lemire.emocrats on capitol hill are publicly calling out senator joe manchin for refusing to support the build back better act, republicans are trying to use the discord to add him to their ranks. senate minority leader mitch mcconnell is offering an open invitation saying the west virginia senator is welcome to switch parties anytime. >> i don't know if joe will ever become a republican, but i can tell you this for sure, it's a completely uncomfortable fit for joe. i think he's probably, for example, the only pro-life democrat of the 50. he doesn't fit well over there. but that's a decision he ultimately has to make. we certainly welcome him to join us if he was so inclined. >> mcconnell isn't the only republican reaching out. senator john cornyn of texas said he texted manchin about switching parties but hasn't heard back. cornyn tells a tv station, quote, i don't know what he will decide to do but i do know that west virginia has gotten increasingly red. that would change the majority. no

go ahead, jonathan. i rescind, agree with you and you know, listen to margaret i you know, how could you put trust in joe biden? i mean, you knew he wasn't going to show up. in short for the campaign trail. you knew he was a liar. if you look at his career, he lives, he's, this is a guy who is he just politics and does whatever is best to make joe biden to look good and quite frankly, he never looks good. he just looks like a narcissist to be honest. and i, you know, i've noticed in this conversation that i'm the only one here that's saying the word effective. what is effective? what is effective for this nation? i just, i cannot anymore look left in, right. i only look at what's effective and there is absolutely nothing being done effective. you can mandate all you want, which is what the other guy said. the word want at least a half dozen times. but if what you want is not effective, then it mandating or not mandating or passing laws. it's not going to do any good. this nation is crumbling. the price o