. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: live from new york city, good morning good morning. this is bloomberg surveillance, alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz. tom: on a monday, to get out front of the friday jobs report is a big deal. many people want one million jobs to be created, and that talks about a recovering economy. jonathan: we are still in a land -- where nobody seems to have a real clue with any confidence of what this labor market is going to look like. tom: i think in the labor market that is true and we get a lot of economic data on the mystery of the q3. there is no mystery to the equity market. look at the adjustments we are beginning to see. moving from 4300 to 4700. a resilient bowl about the jobs report as well. jonathan: six months of gains on the s&p 500. quite a run. lisa: just because people have been questioning it doesn't mean aiken and, especially with incredibly low yields. there is a question about margin pressures. some people saying margin pressures have been overblown with a lo

perhaps as early as the november meeting. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferroz. jonathan: it is payrolls eve. for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance. " alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity futures up nine. tom: what is really important as

this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. ♪ jonathan: from new york, we begin with the big issueeopening surge beginning to fade? >> a lot of speculation. >> this wall of worry. >> fits and starts. >> a big scare on the delta variant. >> the fed reaction function. >> the equity market outlook. >> it is adding fuel to the inflationary concerns. >> everything is beat growth, peak earnings, peak monetary policy. >> the reopening trade called into question. >>

jonathan ferro out, taylor riggs in for jonathan ferro this week. we have data coming out. in the old days mckee got all of this stuff at 4:00. he does not anymore. we will let him in 3, 2, one. there is. durable goods. michael: supposed to fall .3%, so i guess that is good news. you are looking at a problem with automobiles, without going deep into the data. we cannot get the chips to get them out. capital goods orders ex aircraft , this is what economists like to follow, it is flat. that is a disappointment because it was up point 7/10 -- it was up .7% last year. better the last months .6%. we did get some work in during the month of july, but we did not get a lot done lately. tom: two questions. one of durable good and then i have to sell forward on all of your hard work on jackson hole. the idea of durable goods -- in a service sector world like a passively use elation, -- capacity utilization, do we care anymore about durable goods? michael: the problem with the durable goods orders is they are very volatile. it is hard to separate out. tom: even if -- even in a pandem

>> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jon: record highs into tuesday from new york city for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance" live on tv and radio alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your eye could we -- or equity market done 19. in for tuesday, five-day winning streak on the s&p. we are up 100% and change since the march 2020 low. what a rally. tom: 100% is a real benchmark and that was noted with the surge at the close. i look at the vix as the equity barometer. 60.92 is pretty much midrange e. i cannot -- midrangey. i cannot say that for the spread markets, the bond markets, it is fascinating. jon: treasury down to 1,23. it is on the chairman powell after retail sales. tom: retail sales is way more important than powell. the actual date of where is this economy. frances donald coming up in a moment will be important. i would note the german tenure out front in worse or point -- worserp oin -- worser point. the 210 spread, the ones you look at i don't look at,

tom: the real meditation with jonathan ferro.er] tom: coming up, and extremely important conversation on afghanistan and eurasia. george friedman. futures negative nine, dow futures -98. this is bloomberg. good morning. laura: with the first word news, i am laura wright. the tax raising committees in the house and senate are almost done and have set a september 15 deadline for details. the problem is lawmakers do not know how big president bidens spending package will be and lawmakers do not have ideas about -- a defeat in court for the bided administration on immigration. a federal repeat was court -- a federal appeals court -- the biden administration has allowed asylum-seekers to wait in the u.s.. the cases likely to end up at the supreme court. a shakeup of the baseball card business has led to the collapse of a merger. a merger deal with topps has been called off by mutual consent a day after major league baseball and the players union agree to an exclusive trading card deal that will end the long time dominance of topps in

jonathan ferro. still much more to come.loomberg. ♪ >> a lot of the market is already corrected. >> this feels more like coming down from stimulus payments then it does reflect invariant fears. >> this is going to be ash reflecting variant -- reflecting variant fears. >> this is going to be a boost in productivity for the next two to three years. >> the biggest disagreement on wall street, is it september, is it december, guess what? it doesn't really matter. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: what a low conviction market. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market totally unchanged on the s&p after yesterday's major drawdown, down 0.7%.

i'm jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg. ritika: the surgeon covid cases is increasing pressure on bloomberg -- on drug regulators. approval could help the biden administration wrap up its immunization drive and reassure vaccine holdouts. the british government is seeking to limit disruption to industries from the so-called -- authorities have changed the national health services mobile phone app so fewer people will be told to self-isolate. the app will now notify only those who come into contact with an infected person within two days prior, instead of the five days. a key senate republican has tested positive for the coronavirus, and that could delay the democratic plans to pass that infrastructure bill this week. senator lindsey graham and at least four other senators attended an event over the weekend with joe manchin. if other senators has positive, that could delay the vote timetable. at the tokyo olympics, simone biles made an emotional return to the competition and won the bronze medal in the balance beam final. tha

tom keene, lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro. tom: what is harry kane doing? : missed training again. the italian face found again. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. president biden and top white house officials are trying to stave off a wave of evictions. the federal motor thorium -- federal moratorium just expired, and the president is pushing state and local government agencies to act quickly to stop folks from losing their homes. the chair of the sec is preparing more oversight of krista currencies -- of cryptocurrencies. in an interview with bloomberg, he signaled that he is not on board with the hands overhead approach that many enthusiasts would like to see. he says investors must be protected against fraud. sales of -- exceeded, and we spoke to ceo bill winters in an exclusive interview. we will have plenty >> -- >> we will have plenty of capital to invest organically or in organically. if there is nothing out there for us to invest in, we could resume buybacks or increase the dividend. ritika: they are expected fu

until after the next presidential election. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferroamowicz. jonathan: coming into wednesday at all-time highs. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. the s&p negative three this morning, down not even 0.1%. it is onwards to vice chair clarida a little later this morning. tom:

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: when in doubt, blame the fed. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market down 32 on the s&p, -0.75%. if in doubt, blame the fed. this morning, that's what many are doing. tom: the fed is always in the crosshairs, but it is much more than that. goldman sachs yesterday, they mentioned to variant. this is not about economics. it is about the fourth story of this pandemic. jonathan: couldn't agree more. the title of goldman's downgrade was not related to fed tapering, not related to an increase of tightening. it was on the impact of covid in q3 and q4. tom: we've got a lot of other people coming up as well on that. and lately -- ben laidler, hugely bullish. what i wonder is at jackson hole, should they rip up the script, and on the lawn with those lovely white tents for the saturday lunch, should the head of the cdc speak to t

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. nathan: coming into wednesday at all-time highs. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. the s&p negative three this morning, down not even 0.1%. it is onwards to vice chair clarida a little later this morning. tom: a lot of people saying it is a quiet tape. i disagree. the vice chairman conference new -- chairman confronts new lower yields, that negative yielding some worldwide up and away. jonathan: and a payrolls report coming friday. adp claims tomorrow, payrolls friday morning. does that set us up for a more interesting jackson hole meeting? tom: does it set us up for the disappointment of -- yes, that will affect jackson hole. jonathan: you've got to go to china. i really think you have to start in china right now as restrictions start to build and the downgrades start to come through. lisa: people take a look at some of the social restrictio

tom keene, lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg. ritika: president joe biden's big plans are about to pass their first major legislative test. a group of sedatives is set to approve a $550 billion infrastructure program. democrats will be able to bypass republicans on the next part, a $3.5 trillion budget resolution that would expand health coverage, childcare, and education benefits. atlantic's fed presidents says the fed should move to taper asset purchases of another strong month of employment gains. he tells us the economy is improving faster than the models predicted. the dashing of the addition of over 900,000 jobs in the last -- he notes the addition of over 900,000 jobs in the last month. 38 states have transmission levels considered high by the cdc. the other 12 states in washington, d.c. have transmission rates in the second-worst category. the european union has decided not to reinstate restriction non-essential travel from the u.s.. that is despite new covid cases in the country exceeding the threshold. the guidance from

this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. ♪ jonathan: from new york, we begin with the big issue return to normalcy. >> the delta variant. >> the big scare on the delta variant. >> if you asked me what the biggest risks are, fear. >> fear of the variant. >> the return to the office has been on the slow side. >> how much delta will delay the full normalization. >> the macro standpoint may slow the economy down. >> the issue of the delta spread. >> the delta variant represents

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: the payrolls report 90 minutes away. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. equity futures up two on the s&p, basically unchanged. just going into the jobs report a couple of hours away. tom: equities grinding over the past couple of days to a better fix. that is a new -- a better vix . that is an improved vix, but there is global angst as we go into this payrolls report. jonathan: record highs in europe on the equity market. record highs on the nasdaq. all-time highs on the s&p. we keep climbing that wall of worry. tom: liz ann sonders of charles schwab out on twitter with smart charts, and it's real simple. you take the yield and you flip it. . that gives you the pe. david kostin is out at 22 times earnings, partly because of this low yield and a permanent low yield regime. jonathan: david kostin looking for 4700 on the s&p this year,

outcomes over the next two or three years. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferroowicz. jonathan: coming into thursday at record highs. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. . your equity market up three on the s&p 500. in the next 60 minutes, two of the biggest bulls on the street, 4700 at goldman year end, 5000

that eventually needs to go somewhere. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferroowicz. jonathan: when in doubt, blame the fed. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market down 32 on the s&p, -0.75%. if in doubt, blame the fed.

this is "bloomberg the open" with jonathan ferro. ♪ jonathan: from new york, we begin with the big issueecovery shown some cracks. >> inflation concerns. >> contracting the virus. >> we have seen covert issues arise in country after country. >> wage growth is pushing it up into bottlenecks due to the delta variant. >> the ppi number was really hot, suggesting more inflation in the pipeline. >> i just don't think we are quite through this much higher than 2% inflioju

this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. ♪ jonathan: from new york, we begin with the big issueclimbing the wall of worry? >> a lot of concerns and speculation, the stair on the delta variant. >> the fed reaction function. >> inflation more persistent. >> signaling in terms of tapering. >> supply chain. >> peak everything, peak growth, peak earnings. >> there is generally caution in the economy. >> we think risk assets will continue to outperform. >> w

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: that's get the week started. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market advancing 14 points, up 0.3%, pushing ahead to payrolls friday. tom: into august and into that jobs report, it is a linkage of our economic leaf in august and january of next year with our market belief. they are really bouncing off each other within the research notes as we begin the month. jonathan: can we take a beat to have a shout out for italy? won the eurovision song contest, won euro 2020, fastest man on the planet, and the two-year yield -0.65%. tom: i just want to extend this moment and suggest what ac milan looks like into 2022. jonathan: let's stop that there. [laughter] lisa: that was a really nice way to try to move on quickly and get it out of the way. the jobs number is going to be really key. how much slack is there in the labor market

i am lisa abramowicz in for jonathan ferro.untdown to the open" starts now. >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading. this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. lisa: we begin with the big issue. looking ahead to jackson hole. >> jackson hole. >> the mood music from jackson hole will be very important. >> everyone is sensitive and reactive to what is upcoming. >> more signals from the fed tapering is on the agenda. >> not making an announcement. >> this is a fed that proceeds very deliberately, very carefully. >> no reason to

this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. ♪ jonathan: from new york we begin with the big issueon a knife edge. >> gradual normalization. >> starting to see growth is beginning to slow down. >> some of the earlier fiscal stimulus is starting to wade. >> getting downtrends from the data like retail sales. >> exiting this period where we had strong economic data. we may be moving to a period where it surprises to the downside. >> the reopening boom is over. >> it may be delayed somewhat.

this is "bloomberg -- the open" with jonathan ferro. ♪ jonathan: we begin with the big issue. on the u.s. recovery. >> very strong economic data surprises to the upside. >> the recovery is here. >> a strong economic recovery. >> a lot of concern about demand flow. >> inflation concerns. >> we have seen covid issues arise in country after country. >> there is generally caution in the economy. >> going to be fits and starts. >> teetering on a nice

jonathan ferro is out. i have a photo opportunity of ferro. he is somewhere warm and beautiful and lovely, with palm trees. taylor riggs joins us. taylor, good morning. my deepest sympathies. taylor: thank you for having me. tom: let's get right to it. if you look at the standard deviations, of this equity market, two days in a row, we break out. lisa: a jump condition and production as analysts trying to increase all of their projections. the interesting thing to me is the yawning gap between some of the predictions. a 27% differential between the bears and the bulls for s&p protections. -- s&p projections. to give you a sense of how much uncertainty there is on wall street. tom: normally abramowitz wouldn't do that, but she does it for taylor riggs. taylor, how do you link the bar markets -- link the bond markets with the great bull market? taylor: i keep hearing calls that the yields have to go higher and then you have auctions like the 10 year option and it seemed like there is no alternative, not only when you talk about the equity market

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. ur equity market 19, -20 on the s&p, down 0.4%. here's the outlook for walmart, boosting its forecast. tom: this really gets in front of the gloom crew. home depot had some pretty good numbers, maybe with a little but of saltiness in comp sales -- a little bit of sogginess in comp sales. i just don't know how else to describe it, but it defines boom economy. we will see from here. jonathan: stock is up 0.3%. it is on to target tomorrow morning. they've been raising the margins. that's the conversation we had so far this morning. tom: it sets up the polarity between the bull market types we talk to who say, corporations will adjust, corporations will get it done, and the legitimate gloom crew saying, now what? jonathan: let's get to the gloom crew. lisa, they are talking about margins and the pressure we could see. lisa: they beat expectations. they raised forecasts. their stock is basically unchanged, fluctuating between gains and losses in premarket earnings. it goes to the question o

a really sophisticated morning monday note challenging jonathan ferro. german yield conundrum, what you and i are observing on the infant -- interest rate differential across the atlantic. jonathan: 10 year yields in germany, the whole curve is negative. can you take an economic signal would you look at the ecb is a massive fire? -- massive buyer? tom: jeff bezos doesn't live there. as lisa mentioned, the dynamism of the united states is just not there and that's the disparity. jonathan: it's a global bond market. with yields down here in germany , how far can treasury yields go? i mentioned jp morgan, where is your up in the mix? are you just looking for a much wider spread? lisa: it's a global market and a changed central banking philosophy. we are printing money and extending the balance sheet has not led to runaway data. are the central banks going to shrink their balance sheets? they will probably go bigger. probably they will stay negative and that is what a lot of people have been coming out with whether the united states or europe. i don't see th

live on tv and radio this morning, alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. re's your equity market, up 19 on the s&p. we advanced by 0.4%. in the bond market, 1.72% -- 1.2 to 70% -- 1.2272%. tom: ism, doesn't matter this morning? jonathan: yes it does. what does output look like? what do prices paid look like? all of that matters. tom: we will have coverage for you on radio and television. my book on the summer was of president xi, and she called it the third resolution. somewhat expert on the gray new larry is leland miller -- the gray new larry t is leland miller ash the granularity -- the granularity is leland miller. how does washington react to what they see in beijing? lelandl: you've obviously got -- leland: you've obviously got these nasty crackdowns on the tech and education sector. at the same time, some of the numbers we are look at are not as bad. you had a recent rr cut, and that made people think they must be doing poorly. services are doing a little bit better, so we are not as negative on the actual underlying economy because of these awful he

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. nathan: it is payrolls eve. for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance. " alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity futures up nine. tom: what is really important as you migrate out strongly into next year with a statement on the end of 2022. jonathan: 4700 this year, 4900 next year. 11% upside into 2022 year end. a market that apparently will have stable interest rates. tom: he's talking about that, he's talking about earnings growth. i am going to bring it over to someone way out front on double-digit optimism, and that is ben laidler. the common thing of laidler, kostin, and the other bulls is yes, interest rates matter, the jobs report matter. the important thing is what corporations are doing. jonathan: the big question is can they continue to keep his big margins insulated. lisa: we were speaking with gina martin adams yesterday. she was saying people have underestimated how much margin pressures have come in with s&p

this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. ♪ jonathan: from new york, we begin with the big issue the fed debate. >> all eyes are on the fed. >> a sense of tapering. >> what happens with the payroll reports. >> we are back in an environment where investors are scared of the fed shadow. >> we think getting back to full capacity will be an important marker for the fed to start to taper. >> missing piece of the puzzle. >> markets want to see a continued up at fed. >> positive

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: coming into thursday at record highs. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. . your equity market up three on the s&p 500. in the next 60 minutes, two of the biggest bulls on the street, 4700 at goldman year end, 5000 for ed yardeni next year. tom: jon, the equity market rationalization right now, the narratives about it, the gloom of the friday research note in these rare notes of optimism, it's got to be studied. jonathan: ben laidler in the previous hour as bullish as ever. he thinks the reopening trade hasn't even started yet. tom: really important point, as each bull has a different way of approaching this. it is not a uniform call. jonathan: we like balance on this program. here's lisa. [laughter] lisa: i do think that the key distinction between the bulls and the bears right now is margin pressures, how much companies can adapt to

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: here comes the deal down in d.c. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market is down a single point on the s&p. the focus on washington, a deal coming together. tom: a deal coming together on infrastructure. the markets churning around. the consumer pop we get from fiscal policy has to be accounted for. jonathan: what about the yield pop? 1.60% now the call i goldman. these forecasts are coming in. tom: a movement to 1.60% gets your attention? the ambiguity of have that rebounds and equities, we will do that a moment with mike wilson. i am looking at the terminal, and it is telling me this is a bull market, as we heard from jon golub yesterday. that is just one of the microcosms of innovation, and life goes on. jonathan: new iphones with reportedly a camera upgrade. you've got to tell people what the news is. tom: new iphon

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: let's get the trading week started. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, this is "bloomberg surveillance," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, and jonathan ferro. some real tension this morning. better news out of america, worse news out of china. tom: i think you nailed it. it is a trading week, and everyone has to reassess. i mean, i am gold with the volatility this morning, but it is really interesting how the recalibration of september is going to happen now. jonathan: really interesting for the debate around inflation as well. the jobs report was assigned the supply side of the u.s. economy was healing. then you have what is happening with china. what is happening in china reintroduces upside risk of supply constraints. tom: there is noise. there is noise in the specific -- in the pacific rim. just, to me, that bang up jobs report with a bang up revision globally means everyone has to reassess, and that is what i saw in the research

jonathan ferro often francine lacqua in for john. -- jon.eading green on the screen, not much is going on. the vix hasn't moved. yields are higher. you notice the two year yield rounded up to 1.35. that is a substantial three-day move into this thursday. we will see what happens off of claims at 8:30. euro-dollar, we are watching really legging out to the 1.6 print -- 1.1 -- 1.16. right now, someone who has wonderful optimistic cast on the american economic experiment, drew mattis joins us. thank you so much for joining. you have such an optimistic view. what is your view on jd t say 12 months out. as the gloom crew overwrought? >> they are not. it is the people getting excited about things overdoing it. if you look at everything we have been through, it is not clear we went through a recession so it is not clear we are going into a recovery. i mean a global recession, normal recovery. we're watching watching a few things carefully. obviously the restart of schools will be important to the labor market. if you look at all of the people who l

jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, tom keene. taylor riggs darkens the door because jonathan ferro is off. we thank her for joining on a day on jackson hole and the speech of the federal reserve system to the known world. lisa, sorry it is not normal given where we are and where rates are. everyone will tune in at 10:00 a.m. lisa: absolutely. one of the balance of risks when it comes to inflation perhaps overshooting as perhaps we heard from fed chair jay powell or them acting too soon and tightening when the economy needs a boost. this is a delicate balance and the market is saying the fed has it right. will he push back and worry more about inflation? tom: on radio and television, whether you are working from home, from the beach, in the office, we will have wonderful coverage. michael mckee with decades of work has put together a terrific set of voices to get us ready for the chairman's speech and then we will have coverage and move into the later morning on thoughts on what the chairman has brought. the petition here for bond

this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. ♪ jonathan: from new york, we begin with the big issuef supply constraints. >> supply constraints. >> supply bottlenecks. >> supply chain issues. >> they are not going to go away for a few more years. >> interest rates are tight. >> at the same time we have the emergence of the delta variant. >> the amount is not being satisfied. >> it is easy to see why prices are rising. >> the key point is that central

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance," with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: it is inflation day in america. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning, good morning, this is "bloomberg surveillance," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jon ferro. tom: the word from me on the inflation report is grind, grind, grind. the dollar confirmed, the stronger dollar. jonathan: stte six straight days the treasury down, tom, and where are we right now on a 10-year? that is quite a turnaround. tom: you know there is a low-yield camp, john, but i'm sorry, you have got to respect the grind, and the answer is, day after day, it is price-up. jonathan: and come alisa, we have that hot payrolls report. lisa: that has definitely been a trigger report on a real yield point. are they going to be more sponsor than perhaps people had previously expected, as we get one read after another of hot input. jonathan: annmarie hordern probably has not slept all night, watching the senate. what we call that, a voter rama. lisa: a vot

this is "bloomberg the open," with jonathan ferro.we begin with the big issue, building division at the fed. >> brainard is sending a clear signal. >> feeling more influence from the fed. >> it's clearly going to be what happens in september. >> i feel surprised the board is talking more hawkish. >> they will be as aggressive as what she's suggesting. >> all they have to do when the time is right insert the word substantial. >> the fed is nearly there

kailey leinz in for jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz holding court.floor of bear stearns a million years ago and just before we cut to live someone screamed out price up, yield down. the whole place erupted in laughter as we went live. nobody is laughing now. lisa: greg peters is somebody who is gotten the bond market right again and again. he is head of multisector strategy and has been calling for a decline in yields or at least a stasis despite inflated expectations earlier in the year for inflation. here we are at a precipice wearables on wall street cannot get bullish enough about equities. where bond veterans are looking at the bond yields and saying they will not move that much. do you think people could be surprised by bond yields being lower in a bear case for equities? greg: that is a distinct possibility. it is not my base case. i think we are in a symbiotic relationship where low yields allow equities to outperform. not only the discounting mechanism is much lower, but it is a low stable yield environment is broadly supportive of growth, p

need to get started -- get ready for the start of trading, this is "bloomberg the open" with jonathan ferroan: live from new york we begin with a big issue, record high after a record high. >> day after day of record highs. >> new record highs. >> reaching record highs on the s&p 500 and the nasdaq. >> equities look relatively attractive. >> we have not had a significant correction of 10% or more in almost a year. >> in the short-term we are almost euphoric. >> equities become the proverbial term -- there is no alternative. >> we are seeing a very strong economy, a strong recovery, and a lot of cash on the sidelines. >> you have

kailey leinz in for jonathan ferro, who deserves a well-deserved sabbatical.esearch, lisa.

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: what a low conviction market. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market totally unchanged on the s&p after yesterday's major drawdown, down 0.7%. every morning we wake up, we had down to d.c. and discuss afghanistan. it is the one thing we do not discuss that you wonder starts to shape this market. we have stopped talking about infrastructure spending, fiscal spending down in washington. tom: there's a high conviction august and the news flow is absolutely extraordinary. i look at the market and the pause today. yes, swiss franc a little bit stronger. but this is the day where we start to link off the shop of -- the shock of afghanistan. the beds are coming in -- the op-ed's are coming in. condoleezza rice and others. it is all linked into confidence. jonathan: and administration may be overwhelmed by events right now. to

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. nathan: the inflation report 90 minutes away. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market down two, -0.05%. tom: a lot of houses doing a lot of good work. i mentioned jp morgan in the last hour on rent dynamics. that is the way this report is going to be. we are going to look at the different parts of inflation and see what those immediate dynamics are. jonathan: are the temporary factors, or do they start to bleed? tom: exactly. i do take your point, but i look much more at the boom economy, massive fiscal stimulus, and maybe almost tertiary to the discussion is what we saw in washington overnight. jonathan: let's talk about what we saw in washington through the night. lisa: democrats passed an outline for the $3.5 trillion plan. what does this mean? do you have a sense of what it can mean to have a framework for what could be passe

kailey leinz in for jonathan ferro, who deserves a well-deserved sabbatical. he is doing research, lisa. does that spring to the internationalist of the moment, whether afghanistan or the markets, it is an international friday. lisa: or whether it has to do with the pandemic and how international it is, not only in reply to health but supply chain. it has to do with supply chains out of china, partially closed due to one diagnosis of covid among the workers. and then you also have, of course, an increasing number of wall street firms coming out and delaying the return to the office. it seemed like we baked in a couple of months of the pandemic. tom: i agree. we are getting a little bit of good news, maybe china supply can ease up or the margin can ease up. lisa, i take your point on the margin of this pandemic. goldman sachs did in their gdp marked down a couple of days ago. they started with the delta variant. lisa: this has become suddenly a new theme to marcus. i think we have been talking all week and this has more to do with tapering than the potential fo

jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and tom keene, on radio, on television. is a friday of federal reserve and economics. we will have full coverage through the morning. jon ferro off. taylor riggs in this morning. lisa, it is a big day. lisa: it's a big day, and i think arguably the biggest aspect of it is the reaction to what jay powell says. he's expected to signal some sort of timeframe for the taper discussion. tom: do you think he is actually going to come out with a month, a date, and our? lisa: -- a date, an hour? lisa: of course not. going forward, there is a question about the response and bond markets. i think jim caron nailed it earlier, when he said that if they announce a faster taper eventually, that will actually meet to lower long-term yields. this is what a lot of other people are saying. tom: it gets out to the terminal yield. to the mathiness of that, there's the four ideas that make up the yield, and to me, the immovable force is the microeconomics, the liquidity wall, which means price up, yield down. taylor: except that in the credit ma

jonathan: tom keene, lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro, on radio, on tv. "bloomberg surveillance ." feels like payrolls friday, doesn't it? tom: it is so exciting. jonathan: basis points at 1.3658%. that might have something to do a supply. -- to do with supply. on the s&p, we are negative a little more than 0.1%. it matters for main, for wall street. it matters for washington, d.c. your employment report -- your inflation report as of next -- report is up next. this is bloomberg. ♪ comcast nbcuniversal is investing in entrepreneurs to bring what's next for sports technology to athletes, teams, and fans. that's why we created the sportstech accelerator, to invest in and develop the next generation of technology that will change the way we experience sports. we've already invested in entrepreneurs like ane swim, who develops products that provide hair protection so that everyone can enjoy the freedom of swimming. like the athletes competing in tokyo, these entrepreneurs have a fierce work ethic and drive to achieve - to change the game and inspire the team o

this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. lisa: we begin with the big issue.g on the fed paper timeline. >> this is a fed that wants to taper. >> this is a fed that wants to taper. >> i do not think we will see a bombshell taper announcement. >> the fed will take a read from the next jobs number. >> we will get a strong signal for taper at the fomc meeting. >> look at the numbers in september at the numbers in october. >> you probably need another one million jobs. >>

this afternoon, the real yield where the rumor is jonathan ferro will go the distance. jonathan: whenever you tease my show, i do wonder what you've done to me behind the scenes that is made you feel a little bit guilty to do that. i'm not sure what i feel about that line "going the distance." tom: lost in translation. jonathan: from new york city -- i have one you can all share if you want. from new york city, this is bloomberg. ♪ >> u.s. regulators have authorized giving an extra coronavirus vaccine dose to the most vulnerable people, americans with weaken amine systems will be allowed to get the third shot including organ transplant recipients and patients with conditions like cancer. and afghanistan, the taliban putting more pressure on the government just weeks before the u.s. withdraw. now estimated to hold over two thirds of afghanistan. the u.s. plans to send in some 3000 troops to evacuate some personnel from the american embassy in kabul. disney rising today, reported better than expected quarterly results and jumped in streaming customers. the online tv busine

this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. ♪ jonathan: from new york, we begin with the big issueove. >> tapering. >> the fed tapering announcement. >> tapering may be starting this year rather than next. >> we have heard all about the evolving views. >> we will get some sort of tapering announcement this year. >> it could be at jackson hole we get much closer. >> we have some speakers saying they expect tapering. >> they are vocal in their starting to get their way. >> markets have been well prepared. >> if you give the markets and inch than they take the yard. >>

announcer: this is "bloomberg surveillance," with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: good morning, good morning, this is "bloomberg surveillance," life. -- live. we don't begin with that -- your bond market yields, 1.27. tom keene, we begin with a foreign policy crisis. tom: over the we can come of the team on surveillance working. it is a movable story. some of the images off the news organizations, just extraordinary. this is a day that the biden administration must reckon with. jonathan: this is a quote that will haunt the president of the united states, the likelihood that the taliban will overrun everything is highly unlikely for some the president of the united states july 8, a month ago. tom: what i'm looking at is 300 miles northeast of kabul, a nation decisive france, the size of texas. there is a 47-mile border way up to the northeast, and that is a border with china. jonathan: we will get to that later in the program. lisa, to what degree, if any, has this issue overwhelm the domestic policy goals of this administration? lisa: last night a note was

this is bloomberg. ♪ jonathan: from new york city, i'm jonathan ferro.s is bloomberg "real yield." it is time for the final spread. coming up, that officials speaking. i bet you can't wait. the u.s. treasury offering nearly $130 billion in the 30 year paper throughout the week. ppi and initial jobless claims on thursday. finally, watch out for a senate infrastructure vote coming potentially as soon as tomorrow. with final thoughts, frances donald, michael kushma, mark cabana still with us. what are you looking for next week in that inflation number? frances: i just want to see if it is supply slide -- supply-side driven. if the fed cannot fix it with rate hikes to the same extent it is demand-side. what is the trend there? supply versus demand, that is the key for me. jonathan: michael kushma, your take? michael: very similar. transitory versus permanent. what is the mix? we are not going to know for a while. we may not know until after september and access unemployment benefits roll off and back to school, back to work my that transpires. we are already