we'll take a look at a series of new polls with larry sabato. first to trace gallagher on the heed lyonss that have america in an uproar. trace has a tough assignment today because she has to digest it for you. >> the taxes headline led most of the major newscasts. but now we know that trump reportedly lost $916 million in 1995 and could have used that loss to offset paying fed federal taxes for 18 years. trump isn't disputing the "the new york times" reporting. in fact he calls it a brilliant use of tax law. while much is being made of the clinton campaign saying trump avoided paying taxes for two decades, you have to read a little deeper that if trump didn't faye federal taxes, it's because the government said he didn't owe it. then on the apprentice, saying trump was lewd and sexist. they interviewed 20 crew members and eight of them remembered him making crude comments. the trump campaign calls this story outlandish and several crew members told the a.p. they had positive experience with mr. trump. new york attorney snyderman, a democrat and

larry sabato, brilliant always.told you about hurricane matthew, a category 4 storm hit haiti and did a lot of damage. already barack obama canceled an appearance with healthcare that was slated for florida tomorrow. what if i told you it could impact the florida outcome. i'll explain after this. you both have a perfect driving record. until one of you clips a food truck. then your rates go through the roof. perfect. ♪ for drivers with accident forgiveness, liberty mutual won't raise your rates due to your first accident. and if you do have an accident, our claims centers are available to assist you twenty-four seven. call for a free quote today. liberty stands with you™. liberty mutual insurance. neil: mother nature can wreak havoc with campaign schedules. president obama canceling a rally he was going to do with hillary clinton in florida. the read right now in that state is anyone's guess. polls are tight. but hillary clinton has moved into a big lead in pennsylvania, up 10 points. it's anyone's guess how these n

larry sabato. it's so riveting to see those clips.do you think the tape just wiped out everything we saw at that debate? >> it on secured everything and it on secured a lot of the bad information that was leaking on hillary clinton. it just blocked out the sun. blocked out everything. >> larry, does the polling support that in. >> yeah, essentially. real events make a difference in these polls. most people have made up their mind but basically you enthuse your party pace or you depress it. i think it's obvious who is depressed. >> mark, you actually have been on the presidential campaigns. what would you say at this point if you were on the trump campaign? what would you be telling the candidate? >> well i would have told him a different strategy in the last debate but now that he's gone this direction, the clear strategy that he's imploring is to burn the boats. like the vikings when they go invade, they burn the boats so you can't invade. his approach is to blow up everything in sight and hope that he survives. >> or do you feel lik

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larry sabato with us tonight on what the change means for election day. turn to trace gallagher to crunch the numbers. trace? >> megyn, the primary reason utah is now a toss-up is because donald trump is very unpopular with mormons, who make up 60% of the state's voters. for the record, hillary clinton isn't exactly loved in utah, which is why evan mcmullen is pulling almost even with both trump and clinton. mcmullen is an independent, byu grad, and a mormon. this poll is from y2 analytics, the only utah poll taken so far taken after the trump/billy bush tape was released, and it says 94% of utahans have heard or seen the tape. in august, trump had a double-digit lead in utah, and for him, it's the canary in a coal mine. the last time it voted democrat was 1964 and now it's anyone's game. even without utah, the fox news decision team says if hillary clinton wins the states rated solid democrat along with the states leaning democrat, she'd come out with 307 electoral votes. she only needs 270 to win the presidency. if trump wins the solid republican states

larry sabato with us, director for the center for politics in virginia. good to see you, larry. thanks so much for joining us. your take on the race so far. >> it's the craziest race i've seen since the 1960s. i always try and prepare for these contests extra vitamins and eating healthy the last few weeks. i think we all need to do that because there's other twists and turns. there will be other october and november surprises before november 8th. >> what about this surprise. do you think it will alter the race now that the fbi is reopening the investigation into the e-mails. >> i'm calling it the comey affect. it will be real in the presidential contest and house. i think what director comey has done and the actions he's taken will benefit donald trump. i don't know how much. maybe a point or two. we won't know until wednesday. we need to have a series of good polls come out that are taken over the period when people will have learned about this. we don't have that yet. and it's going to have an impact in some of the really close senate and house races and it will help republica

well, larry sabato is up next on the new polls that just got dropped.ate of the election next. om voya. orange money represents the money you put away for retirement. over time, your money could multiply. hello, all of you. get organized at voya.com. when you're close to the people you love, does psoriasis ever get in the way of a touching moment? if you have moderate to severe psoriasis, you can embrace the chance of completely clear skin with taltz. taltz is proven to give you a chance at completely clear skin. with taltz, up to 90% of patients had a significant improvement of their psoriasis plaques. in fact, 4 out of 10 even achieved completely clear skin. do not use if you are allergic to taltz. before starting you should be checked for tuberculosis. taltz may increase your risk of infections and lower your ability to fight them. tell your doctor if you are being treated for an infection or have symptoms. or if you have received a vaccine or plan to. inflammatory bowel disease can happen with taltz. including worsening of symptoms. serious allergic

larry sabato looks into the crystal ball next. your phone system and learn how you could save at vonage.com/business >>> a lot going on on the campaign trail with just about a week and a half to go now. donald trump is about to speak in phoenix, arizona. got a bit of spring in his step given the news that dropped on friday afternoon, wondering whether or not it can put some life back into some of those places where he is hoping to do better than hillary clinton when election day rolls around. sheriff joe arpaio was just onstage there as the people wave their signs and get ready for donald trump. we will keep an eye on that and take you there live when that gets under way. >>> meantime, congress is responding to the bombshell from the fbi that they are investigating newly uncovered e-mails related to a laptop that was used by huma abedin and anthony weiner, whom she was married to at the time. all part of the clinton probe. democrats now furious that the man they praised when they thought she was exonerated is now back on it. repub

washington bureau chief for the chicago sun times, jay newton small, contributor to "time" magazine and larry sabato, director of the university of virginia center for politics. welcome to all of you. larry, these comments by mr. trump that he will keep us in suspense on election day, maybe he will accept the election results, maybe he won't, tell us why those remarks are damaging. >> well, they are highly irresponsible. i studied contested elections. we have had some in american history, 1824 when andrew jackson was very unhappy that john quincy adams won, 1876 when we had really a dead tie and a corrupt election and a democrat won the popular vote pretty handily, but the election was conceded even though it was probably stolen from him. some of your prior guests have mentioned 1960, the kennedy/nixon race though i have to correct what's been said. i have studied that thoroughly. i have gone to all the reports and investigations for 1960. john f. kennedy won that election. there were fraudulent votes in chicago. there were fraudulent republican votes in southern illinois and there were fraudulent v

david gergen and layer -- larry sabato. why don't we start with the new poll, larry. thank you for joining me. trump trails clinton by five%, 47 clinton, 42 trump. it shows since cnn's last poll she is up, he is down. this was completed after the debate but before the stunning news about the taxes. there's a cnn "new york times" poll out, similar result, clinton up by four. what do you make of this? >> and there's also another national survey, survey monkey that has clinton up by about six. look, it is all good news for clinton. we know national polls don't matter as much, it is really the battleground polls. she got tremendous news today from colorado, from florida, from north carolina, from pennsylvania. only one exception, ohio, where she clearly is doing very poorly, but she is winning the other battleground states. so, you know, if this continues -- now, that's a giant if -- obviously she is going to be a clear favorite. she probably is the clear favorite, but there are two more debates to come. there could be outside events or revelations that change everything.

this thing swings back and forth week to week, and larry sabato, professor extraordinaire know. professor, this vp debates seem not to get the attention that the big guys do. but we remember lines, web lloyd benson's line with dan quayle, i knew jack kennedy, you're no jack kennedy. but it didn't help lloyd benson and dukakis at the top of that ticket. so do we put too much stock in the number twos? >> no, i think it's really important for people to tune in. obviously, millions fewer are going to tune in than did for the first presidential debate. there's no question about that. but let me give you one overriding reason why people should tune in. in american history, 14 vice presidents have succeed to the presidency and nine of them have succeeded without benefit of an election. that is through the resignation of the president. so we ought to be paying attention. now, i wish -- >> i thought you were going to say that you want to pay attention, because fox business is carrying it. if you don't get it, you really want to demand it. >> no, i wasn't going to say that. i had no inten

you are on with larry sabato. caller: thank you for taking my call.d howly, really people think hillary clinton is a criminal. but all ofperfect, the stuff that trump throws at her is all lies, and he knows that. accuses her of something 20 years ago that she had nothing to do with, and he has three women accusing him of rape, including a 12-year-old girl who is a woman now, she is taking him to court. froms thousands of cases contractors, workers, business people who did business with the guy, and he steps everybody. to goen he has the nerve and campaign and throw that in her face when she is a professional. leaving that aside, she knows exactly how to deal with issues, she has an agenda, she can explain about health care, the economy, international policy. caller.ank you, mr. sabado, did you want to respond? caller: obviously, she is a strong supporter of clinton, and this is typical of those that support one or another candidate. we had this perceptual screen and we are inclined to take in information that supports our personal choice and reject in

to discuss the polls and the new map i'm joined now by larry sabato. larry, your thoughts about our map. does it roughly square with what you've been seeing or what? >> yes. it's very, very close to what the crystal ball, our website at the university of virginia has had. we don't allow tossups, brit. we make ourselves make a choice which is difficult sometimes, and we actually have arizona, which you have as a tossup in trump's column and we have ohio and north carolina in clinton's column. so we have clinton up to 341 electoral votes. you know, can some of them switch before november? of course. as you mentioned, the high point for clinton probably was the weekend after the sex talk tape was released, then i think basically trump reaffirmed his support among the republican base. they returned to him. he's back well over 80% with republicans despite what paul ryan did and if that continues, then it will enable him to keep this within a certain number of points, 5, 6, 7, something like that. >> well, we've got we've talked about often mitt romney got 93

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. >> what your saying tracks what larry sabato said and thinks it may produce one to two points differenceetween the candidates. professor, thank you so much. great to see you. >> thank you. >> politics can get down and dirty but this one just flat out stinks. a large pile a manure dumped outside the democratic party office in warren county, ohio, near cincinnati. police arresting a 47-year-old antiabortion protester and say this is not the first time he has done this. he faced up to 60 days in jail. the head of the local republican party says the republican party was not involved and even offered to help clean up that mess. well, it will make good fertilizer. we're await a donald trump campaign rally in michigan. the republican presidential candidate trying to expand his support in blue states. we'll bring it to you as soon as possible it gets underway. be right back. i served under president bush and obama. i fought the taliban. i was asked to form a global coalition to counter isil. when someone makes the comment that they know more about the islamic state or isil than do the generals,

let's bring in larry sabato.that something donald trump should feel maybe has him heading in a better direction? >> as you know, martha, the trump people don't believe in these polls. i hear that daily and get emails and tweets about it, and that's fine. but i don't rely on individual polls. i think that poll was taken essentially at least over the weekend, when the reaction to the sex talk tape was the greatest and therefore trump was doing poorly. he did recover some because of the debate. tino by the polling averages. clinton has more or less had a consistent lead, 3, 4, 5%. basically the polling average will be 4, 5% by the end of the week. i don't think he will be ahead. as i heard his spokesperson said. he's very optimistic. martha: that's what they are supposed to be. let's bring up this post-debate look. what do you think gop candidates for congress do. he's not feeling the love from those folks? >> the latest calculation is a quarter of the republicans who are governors or members of the senate or the ho

let's bring in ben wright, a cnbc contributor, larry sabato. lon don but he seems to be the teflon donald in many ways. a lot of things he would have said over time would have disqualified other candidates. do you think these revelations about his taxes hurt mr. trump with his base? >> not with his base. not a chance, tyler. the most honest thing he ever said in his campaign was i could go down to fifth avenue and shoot somebody and i wouldn't lose any supporters. i think he could shoot multiple people and as long as his aim was good, he wouldn't lose anything from his base. this wasn't his base and they've been trying to enter guise various parts of their coalition without much success. this is a great issue for average people who pay a sizeable slice of their very small salaries to the federal government and, look, this is something that only the super wealthy can take advantage of thereby confirming what we've always thought. >> ben, let's talk about how mr. trump might fight back on this. his campaign has issued statements about it, but my g

larry sabato. he has done it. larry he has done it at least three times if you want to look at tighter times, you can go back further than that. he's encountered for dead many times before and come back. is it possible between now and november 8th. >> anything is possible theoretically. i wouldn't bet on it. it is very unlikely. this is a sizable lead by hillary clinton. people say, oh, what's six points, polls turnaround quickly. this is the end of the campaign. we're at the end. the final phase. people have made up their minds. the vast majority of them have made them up solidly. they are not going to be switching certainly between clinton and trump. maybe a few two who switch back and forth between one of the major and minor party candidates but that's about it. don't forget about early voting, too. we have 3 to 4 million who have already voted and we will have 40% of the electorate having voted before november 8th. >> do you agree? if you look at how trump has closed the gap he's done it in two weeks in the pas

. >> that is larry sabato. talking about red states that could be be in play for hillary clinton and that includes arizona where early voting is underway. you can see it is very tight and hillary clinton is slightly ahead of donald trump. and joining me now is conservative commenter jones. and a clinton campaign advisor. let me ask you about arizona. what do you think about this state? mcklain is ahead. why is not donald trump pulling away from hillary clinton there? >> i think it is one of those things mccain separated himself from trump. i was concerned about republicans separates themselves from trump. would it hurt them in their own races, because he had a big support in states like arizona in the primaries. but it seems like that is not the case. mccain is doing great and now hillary clinton is trying to join forces with the democrat nominee for arizona to help her out. >> jimmy, what you think about that. hillary clinton is ahead when it comes to the presidential race. but the democratic senator candidate

. >> larry sabato, thank you. >>> donald trump ready to unleash new attacks threatening to dredge up bill clinton's sex scandal at the next debate. more members of his party seem to be getting nervous. >>> and two american sisters found dead in their room at the luxury hotel. >>> and "saturday night live" it's back tonight with kate mckinnon as hillary and a new donald trump. remember when hillary herself stopped by? >> i'm bummed. all anyone wants to talk about is donald trump. >> donald trump? isn't he is the one that's like, uh, you're all losers? guess what guys, i switched to sprint. sprint? i'm hearing good things about the network. all the networks are great now. we're talking within a 1% difference in reliability of each other. and, sprint saves you 50% on most current national carrier rates. save money on your phone bill, invest it in your small business. wouldn't you love more customers? i would definitely love some new customers. sprint will help you add customers and cut your costs. switch your business to sprint and save 50% on most current verizon, at&t and t-mobile rat

if he wants to make himself feel better about the election result, he should look at larry sabatos.f you are a republican, it was depressing. this morning in crystal ball, he holds steady and says hillary clinton at 352 electoral votes, trump 173. so i think -- i wonder if this is a little bit of a scare tactic for democrats. >> it is. >> i agree on the messages. donald trump has done that. republicans are accused of and rightly to be accused of ignoring the voters. the democrats are at risk of doing the same thing. from an economic perspective, the vision of what happens with the technological revolution, where the jobs go. everybody needs to focus on helping those people. >> that's not a news story, the loss of jobs through automation. that's not a news story. >> what's going on? >> i think he is right. i think he is right that there are a lot of people who feel their voice is not being heard in washington. guess what? it happened on the democrat side as bernie sanders supporters. hillary clinton beat him out. we find out some of the methods they used to win that. it does make a p

let's bring in larry sabato. hi, larry. let's start with the idea of turnout.you expect it to be above average, average, below average and why? >> i expect it to be lower than 2008 and maybe lower than 2012, but it will actually be above average in 1988, 1996 and 2000. we have half of the voters turn up and half not. you can be certain that we will at least be somewhere in the 50s. and there is great interest in this -- in this election, despite what some analyses are suggesting. i think we'll have a good turnout. >> a good turnout. let's talk -- pivot to the idea of voter fraud and rigged election, mr. trump is making those charges practically every day. what do you make of them? >> i make of them that it is both ridiculous and irresponsible to suggest that the election is rigged. donald trump has zero evidence, zero evidence. there is none. now, could something happen on election day if somehow the russians hacked into one state's system? yes, it is possible. obviously the authorities here are trying to prevent that. but this is simply trying to -- trump tryi

think his goal needs to be undecideds because this information over the weekend, and i'm parroting larry sabatoersity of virginia knows far more about this than i do, will drive democrats to vote for hillary, that will come to the belief she needs every vote. driver waiverring republicans toward him that they have more antipathy toward mrs. clinton. kellyanne conway may be on to something. the undecideds are interested in the different presidencies the two have, rather than her emails they have heard enough. at least the way i understood kellyanne. sandra: clearly this is opportunity for him to grab all positive headlines and every headline about her is speculation over what the fbi found or is finding in those emails. isn't this opportunity to take the high road and hammer in his his message? >> yes. in fairness to her, those 650,000, are unlikely to be all hers. the crowd, they have found 650,000, they're not all -- kennedy: what if 6500 are? what if 1% emails have classified information or they are directly pertaining to secretary of state, something she should have turned over? >> this brin

cnn, larry sabato, the university of virginia, washington post all have her over 300 electoral votes.hat is kellyanne talking about? this is going in one direction and i don't think you can turn it around in the time left. and if i may add the fact that hillary clinton was in ohio today, this is like the icing on the cake. she doesn't need ohio but she's tied in ohio and now she's making a play for ohio. so roll it up. >> kayleigh, donald trump says he's going pack wall to wall events until election day. >> and that is very smart on his part. i would argue you are right about the polls you cited but there is one poll that was said to be the most accurate in 2012 that was statistically the most accurate in 2004 and 8, that is the investors business daily poll that is ahead by one point. i think there is a brexit phenomenon. and polling conforms that. i'm fairly certain folks were voting for donald trump and i'm fairly certain there were a lot of donald trump supporters who don't want to be in the basket of deplorables who just hang up when the pollster calls. i do think there is a thre

let's discuss washington bureau chief from the chicago sun times lynn sweet, larry sabato the director for center for politics at the university of virginia. lynn, let me begin with you, the thing is, you know, this -- this is not impacting trump among his loyal supporters. even in those swing states. i was just in florida, ohio and pennsylvania interviewing trump supporters, called them all back after this broke, the access hollywood tape, et cetera. almost all of them are standing by trump. but here's where he has a big problem. let's look at the new fox news poll. this is clinton's lead among likely women voters. shows a 19-point gap. she is ahead by 19 points among democratic and republican women. lynn, is there a path to victory for trump if he does not narrow that divide? >> he needs 270 electoral votes, poppy, and he's not on a path to get them. you know, the old saying is that politics is addition not subtraction. and he's not doing it. but when you talk about the beauty pageant woman who talked about trump walking in when they weren't dressed. >> right. >> for all this complai

against cnn, but there are other measures out there -- let's look at the university of virginia, larry sabato, one of the best in the business. today, his count as i checked it, on the way up, 347 electoral votes for hillary clinton, 191 for donald trump, and zero still up for -- zero still up for grabs. i think this is going to be an electoral college landslide. >> so basically what we have going on here, is bill press was for bernie sanders because they believe that hillary clinton was a pawn of corporate interest, that she said one thing -- >> that's not true. >> -- let me go. let me try to do my -- >> don't speak for me. i'll speak for myself. >> i'll do my best imporsination of bernie sanders. when she appeared before corporate audiences she said we can't vet these refugees from syria, she said we can't have open borders. she said i have to have a p private and public policy position and she'd collect or $225,000 check, or $250,000 check. donald trump has the kitchen sink resting on his head, he's had the best dump in october we've ever seen. hillary clinton is not liked. she's a miserab

i'm joined by the director of the university of virginia center for politics, larry sabato and davidnese from "u.s. news and world report." let's start with the wikileaks and the leaked e-mails and john podesta may have been getting a heads-up from the department of justice about investigations into hillary clinton's e-mail server. is this resonating with voters, larry? >> not particularly. but you know, since we are talking about wikileaks leaks, i think you can call this a drip, drip, drip problem for the clinton campaign. you know, everybody knows that in all probability, they are saving some good stuff, probably bits and pieces will leak out all the way to november 8th. so it's a continuing problem in that it's a distraction for the campaign and there may be something really embarrassing in the documents. we need to remember, this is illegal and in a sense, we are all participating in the illegality by discussing it. but it's hard not to discuss it. >> that's right. it is hard because you want to examine the contents and by the way, there's no definitive proof of any wrongdoing a

>> i think clearly her enthusiasm is growing, as larry sabato pointed out, enthusiasm for democrats growse campaign moves closer to the end. we are growing there. but the bigger point is democrats have to understand this is going to be a close election. we can't take any margin in the polls for granted, and the greater concern i have personally is that the level of attacks that are coming at both hillary clinton, the reality of donald trump's conduct, it could clearly suppress the vote. could clearly convince people just to stay home because they are disgusted. that's not the answer. >> it's an interesting point about suppressing the vote. kellyanne conway, trump's campaign manager, as you both well know, scottie, was on cnn this week with anderson cooper and he asked her about that strategy. is it the strategy of the trump campaign right now three weeks out to basically suppress turnout from clinton's supporters. do you believe there's merit to that argument and if so, is that a smart strategy? >> i think there's merit to that argument but let me take off my trump supporter hat and put b

like larry sabato's crystal ball at the university of virginia. they have it plus 10, plus 15 for the democrats, that would be halfway there, that could change, the data is in their direction, they're not there in the house yet, is the point. trish: connell, thank you so much. a new batch of clinton campaign e-mails released by wikileaks as well as her answers to a judicial watch lawsuit. we've got the e-mails and the answers next. you can run an errand. (music playing) ♪ push it real good... (announcer vo) or you can take a joyride. bye bye, errands, we sing out loud here. siriusxm. road happy. this man creates software, to protect this customer, who lives here and flies to hong kong, to visit this company that makes smart phones, used by this vice president, this little kid, oops, and this obstetrician, who works across the street from this man, who creates software. they all have insurance crafted personally for them. not just coverage, craftsmanship. not just insured. chubb insured. ...as a combination of see products.. and customers. every on

what are you hearing there, larry sabato? >> i'm hearing a candidate who also is very familiar with all the most recent polls. we already knew that because he talks about them so much and he has for a year. also, the other thing we know about him is he watches an enormous amount of cable news, don, so he's familiar with the trends and he's familiar with what other people are saying, and i think he's laying it out in a way that he can accept if in fact he loses. >> uh-huh. this is joe biden on the campaign trail today for hillary clinton. he had some words for -- some very sharp words for donald trump. >> he said because i'm famoufam because i'm a star, because i'm a billionaire. i can do things other people can't. what a disgusting assertion for anyone to make. the press always asks me, don't i wish i were debating him? no, i wish i were in high school and could take him behind the gym, that's what i wish. >> rebecca sounds like he wants to take him to the wood shed. he said behind the gym. themselv th thems fighting words. >

times" and larry sabato, director of the university of virginia center for politics. welcome to both of you. donald trump is having a real problem with women in this erection, larry. did newt gingrich help him on fox news last night? >> no. obviously he just stoked the base for donald trump as if they need stoking, and that's classic gingrich. earlier you played that great clip from 2012 when gingrich was running for president, when he lashed out at one of the panelists and screamed about media bias and remember, it helped him win the south carolina primary. republicans love media bashing. i think trump's core loves media bashing more than the average republican. it's all of apiece. it's way too late for this to have any real impact on the election. most of it's cooked. >> i would like to play that clip once again now that you mention it. this is newt gingrich when he was running for the republican nomination for president of the united states. it was during a debate. newt gingrich himself has been married a couple of times, right, and one of his ex-wives alleged that

i'm joined now by the great larry sabato, the director of the center for politics down at the uva. this is not really, i don't think as i told celinda, larry, a partisan discussion. i want to know what you think you see in the numbers. celinda, looking at all the numbers, we had such a bombshell. i'm sure the ratings for this and all the other programs went through the roof on friday night. because when the fbi who had been the favorite of the democrats and had said there's nothing there just in july comes out and says, there's sympathetic there, we don't know what it is. all of a sudden it's bombshell. >> i think voters have no idea of what to make of it. i would say three things. first of all, over a quarter of the voters have voted already. and then the undecided vote is down to 5 or 6%. and as you said, a quarter of independents and republicans both think this is sympathetic major. what i think is the major news, three quarters of republicans say, i don't care! i've already made up my mind. >> is the cake baked? >> the cake is baked, unless there's something to reveal. and it's

coming up wednesday morning, larry sabato, director of the center of politics at the university of virginia discusses his crystal ball predictions for electoral college votes and key senate and house races. then front line correspondent martin smith talks about his documentary on the fight against isis. it focuses on the successes, failures and challenges. and author nicole hemmer will be on to talk about her new book that explores the historical connection between candidates and the conservative media and the future of conservatism. watch c-span's "washington journal" live at 7:00 eastern wednesday morning. join the discussion. >>> we're back live with the u.s. house debate with nebraska candidates on c-span3. >> in 2004 and 2014, 91% of the people on the terrorist watch list were able to purchase firearms. that's a public safety issue. the vast majority of americans support that. >> thank you. restriction on any gun or firearms? >> no, i would defend the second amendment. i've defended our rights for 30 years in the arm force and i'll defend them. ted kennedy was on the no-fly list so we

to come this hour during the conversation, university of virginia center of politics director larry sabatooing to tell us what his crystal balance is saying ahead of this inventory the host of "varney & company" going weigh in stooufrt stooufrt as well stay with us, first ahead of the stienl debate, new fox news polls show a clinton has 6-point lead ahead of donald trump, in a four-way presidential vote reference head-to-head match hillary clinton beneath trump by 7 points joining us 32 advisor ceo you out the advisor to president obama robert wolf great to see you. >> daying enput it on 32 red, always come up. >>. dagen: you are betting red not blue. >> really. >> pennsylvania 32 -- what can i say. >> okay. >> what is do you think the status is can trumpull ahead before enforce 8. >> i hope to and i were together feels like one in five shot for him, but the a electoral map is very difficult for him who would have thought that she has a better chance to win arizona than he does new hampshire, a better chance for her to win texas than he does pennsylvania, and her to win georgia than virgin

neil: do you think looking at this formatted table, larry sabato was saying, 30 seconds away, folks,tensifies this thing. >> there is something odd about the moderator having her back to the audience. neil: that is interesting. >> nothing will deny the excitement of the moment. this will be a clash. the form the clash takes, exciting boisterous, we don't know but it is going to be a clash and an important one. neil: a few seconds away. as elaine quijano of cbs news tries to keep this on track and now on time. the. moderator: good evening from longwood university in farmville, virginia, and welcome to the first and only vice-presidential debate of 2016. sponsored by the commission on presidential debates. i'm elaine quijano, anchor at cbsn and correspondent for cbs news this is honor to moderate this debate between senator tim kaine and governor mike pence. both are long-time public servants who are also proud fathers of sons serving in the u.s. marines. the campaigns have agreed to the rules of this 90 minute debate. there will be nine different segments covering domestic and foreign

at the very minimum to larry sabato's crystal ball has hillary clinton at 270 votes. is at 350. >> either way she's either almost there or way past there in most of the projections, when you come out and see the way trump handled that one question -- >> i talked to a lot of average folks as you are always talking to the elite, which i find the repulsive. >> i love the elite they drink better wine. neil: they weren't troubled by it. my premise is this do average folks -- remember, average folks made note of al gore invading george bush's space not the media. so do we -- what we focus on end up being moot points and how well -- >> there is -- there are these elements of obsession here and you talk about the media despising donald trump, but they are still completely obsessed with him. neil: like charlie. he's a hater. >> he's a zen buddhist and has a trump mantra. >> more than that. the trump maundra i have a red thing i put on my head. >> like a burka. >> i disagree with you. polls are volatile. that doesn't mean he's not winning, he's losing bigtime but the polls are

larry sabato has the definitive look at how we've wandered.to see you, neil. >> did the music help you appreciate the gravitas of the situation? >> i'm so excited, i don't know if i can even respond to your questions. >> that's the way i roll. depending on who you talk to, big deal to republicans, they call it another mitt romney moment. a democrat, a liberal i just had on, not just a big deal to her because bygones are bygones. >> it's not helpful, she's having a problem with millenials and former sanders supporters. they were all in for bernie, they never really took to her. you can see it in the polls even today, she's not doing nearly as well with those under the age of 34 as barack obama did. >> so she lumps them in with living in their parents' basement with their barista jobs, not all of them, but she gives a clearly disdainful characterization. i can't imagine they're happy campers about it. >> i'm interested in how bernie responds, he's been out there campaigning on college campuses, they've just doubled his workload. >> obviously he

. >> that was larry sabato there. we were talking about the debate.ate here on cnn and it will be moderated by our own anderson cooper. stay with cnn as we continue this breaking news story. donald trump apologized for his crude comments about women. is this a fatal blow to his campaign, or can he recover? we will be back with more from the political panel. ♪ ♪ jon batiste has mastered new ways to play old classics. with chase atms, he can master new ways to deposit checks too. easy to use chase technology for whatever you're trying to master. and it's got the spring and bounce of a traditional mattress. you sink into it, but you can still move around. and now that i have a tempur-flex, i can finally get a good night's sleep. buy the most highly recommended bed in america for as low as $25 per month and a 90 night free trial. youthat's why you drink ensure. sidelined. with 9 grams of protein and 26 vitamins and minerals. for the strength and energy to get back to doing... ...what you love. ensure. always be you. i absolutely love my new but the rent i

it's all about tax avoidance, larry sabato was asked. is this going to make a difference? learned about the trump campaign. nothing he does is going to cost him a voter. remember when he said i could go out on fifth avenue and shoot somebody and i wouldn't lose any backing, truer words were never spoken this year. what it may do is help clinton excite parts of the democratic coalition that haven't been very excited about her. maybe draw a few undecideds with her. >> most republicans like the fact that he's saving money and he's not paying high taxes. >> here's the problem, if you are defending yourself all sunday and maybe saturday because you got word that this was coming out, you are not doing anything on the offensive and he has been on the defensive, donald trump, for a week and a half now since really the debate for no reason because the news cycle came back to him because of what happened with the fbi revelations, what happened with the bernie sanders' leak and instead we're talking about miss universe and "the new york times" story. >> people care more about that tha

i'm going to talk with larry sabato.or two points. i'm going to talk with governor mccrory to find out what he thinks of the people and what they want to see. he's a huge battleground state. >> one of the smartest shows on television. >> thank you, tucker. >>> after a morning full of politics, it's time for halloween. we've got a lot of it, our annual halloween parade with our costumes coming up. ♪ ghostbusters we have been waiting all morning for this moment. as you can see, this is all about america. >> i think we all have. >> i'm the statue of liberty. >> all about humiliation. >> betsy ross. >> fire hazard. >> and a bald eagle to round it all out. >> a bald eagle. some fish from the greenroom. >> that's what they call you. >> wow. >> i think we need close-up of this situation. >> that was kind of embarrassing. >> did you dress your self? >> i did dress myself. >> some tape on my chin. >> a secret pout tucker, stow strong, busted right there. >> here is the real kicker here, we have a whole line of little kids. >> yes