lisa touched on an earlier.y from ukraine, there is a lot to talk about as we go to retail sales. jonathan: tons to talk about. tens back towards 2%. two getting back towards 1.60. 1.58. we will discuss all this with oksana aronoff. looking forward to that conversation in about 18 minutes. from new york, this is bloomberg. ritika: russian president vladimir putin is signaling there could be more talks with u.s. and its allies considering its demand for security guarantees. sergei lavrov proposed continuing talks, to which vladimir putin responded "all right." it suggest the kremlin will extend diplomatic solutions to the current tensions. australian court has since the leader of a hacking gang to 14 years in prison. the man claims to have help the country security service during a presidential campaign. a russian investigation did not confirm his lengths. swiss voters have enacted a ballot measure to protect children and young adults from tobacco advertising. switzerland lags behind most wealthy nations in restr

lisa: for us.hter] tom: ann marie from rome emails in and says artichoke growth rate in the united states is 9.4%, which puts it on the edge of the dow. i mean, i'm sorry, artichoke is the next member of the dow. jonathan: i'm so done with the dow. it's all a big marketing ploy. i think that's where stock splits are. it's accessible if you want to pay google anyway. tom: part of the fab rib of america. jonathan: the dow is a p.r. machine. it's like g.e. g.e. is the biggest boomer stock on the planet. tom: you want some tang? jonathan: they're just two of the most boomer things in american markets. tom: can't leave fast enough. jonathan: from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ >> it's all about financial conditions and how much we need to see tighten. >> companies have never been this profitable. >> i think there's a lot of opportunity in some of the tech stocks. >> we think this says the year to be selective. >> markets now to correct to some level of normalcy, and that's what we're seeing. >> this is

lisa: i am shrugging.nswer that for you. ♪ ♪ >> we are going to have a volatile but trendless market. >> we are in a rising rate environment. >> i think corporate america can handle higher yields. >> markets for the first time in quite some time are facing less liquidity and tightening economy overall. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: the mood improves for now. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market higher by more than 1% on the nasdaq, up 0.8% on the s&p. tom: 19 on the vix would be a big deal back to january 14, but right now, 20.73 on an early morning vix. i

lisa: i have watched it all. it's interesting because there is a paradox underlying what they are talking about. they want to slow the economy and not torpedo it, how to they do it? this is an uncomfortable place to be which is the reason the turbulence we saw in january, good riddance but there will be more of the same. jonathan: morgan stanley says the safety net is gone stop i think a lot of people agree with that. tom: i think there will be a fed adjustment but i don't know what it will be. you wonder if it comes down to three or four rate hikes. jonathan: five hikes seems to be the consensus. the s&p 500 is slightly negative. on the nasdaq, down 8.5% but could have been worse for last month. yields come in a couple of bases points in the move has been huge. lisa: it's been the five rate hike expectation. i'm wondering how fed officials deal with what we are seeing in the yield curve. at 8:30 a.m., philadelphia fed president will join us along with michael mckee. head of a view that the rate hikes have transl

lisa: -- pick a bank. lisa: b of a. jonathan: from jp morgan, we believe equities are on the upside of the cycle is far from over. the fed is unlikely to keep moving further into hawkish territory, at least relative to is priced in currently. they are the two main camps on wall street. lisa: we are looking at with you believe inflation will concede to persist longer, whether the data we got wrong last year will continue to surprise in terms of persistent inflation versus a fed that watches a slowdown on the data and pivots the response. jonathan: the weakness seems to be the concern of some. tom: the back half of february? jonathan: if you can get me a single month, i would pay serious money. tom: i have trouble with back half quotes. for those whose heads are spending, trust me with great humility my head is spinning. two guests with two different views, to different outlooks. both of them with massive academic credits. the divide defines every interview we do. jonathan: never seen it bigger. the previous cycle, blanch

lisa: dr.n, how important is it for you to keep talking about remaining vigilant , having caution, staying away from people and not necessarily going to the same sorts of pre-pandemic activities at a time when there was a primal cry going along -- going on in the likes of ottawa, children dealing with the scars of what happened. people saying we can keep going with this as we see other health issues are springing up that are consequences of the social distancing era. dr. sharfstein: i think part of the message isn't just stay away. part of the message is due more. find your place of risk tolerance, and do more. generally the person i'm talking to is ok that it's ok to do things. i'm not trying to come in with a doom and gloom message. people want to be cautious and do not want to go racing into a huge cloud of covid, so while there are some people who are quite upset and obviously they should be listened to, but at a certain point, society gets to decide how to protect itself. i think overall,

lisa: exactly. that information is being discounted with respect to the motion of a 50 basis point rate hike and the meeting didn't happen it because it was held last month. jon: march 16, lisa is losing it. let's keep things on the rail for her. the bond market, yield come in and we back away. the dispute you're waking town this morning, it's difficult to get your hand around, i know, the u.s. disappointing flames of a russian pullback and russians disputing claims of a buildup. headline after headline and yields come in down three basis points and north of 2% on 10s and yields back on the 160 we based on two's and sub 150 down to 1.4847. something to keep an eye on. i know you're following it closely t.k., euro on one hand and graduate the other and crude backs away to 91.39. and you see that swissy strength in a mix but not in a massive way and going lower. tom: folks seeing subtle moves and yesterday a strong swiss and today i'm watching gold more than anything, 1880 .70. for those waking up, bl

lisa: no come -- a domestic. lisa: no, i've never had a fight. .n: the controversy of the bank of england saying don't ask for a big pay rise -- i find it difficult to bury that. tom: this is with the fed hearings going on right now. what is going to be a bit of a domestic between the white house and the fed if we get one more month at 7%? jonathan: i do keep saying the one thing on their side at the moment is the calendar. the hope is the base effects kick in the other way and things improve from their, but for a lot of people, chairman powell has let the administration down on this front. we are still doing qe. we are still doing qe. yields in a basis point on tens, 1.82%. we will be back in seven minutes. [laughter] r] ♪ jonathan: feel so well rested now after that. futures look like this this morning. good morning to you all, from new york city, on tv and radio. on the nasdaq 100, up 0.6%. a helping hand today from amazon. let's talk about the move in crude. seven weeks of gains on wti. year to date, up more than 20%. right now, short of $93 on

lisa: it was all human error. [laughter] jonathan: next up, lisa's travels. maybe we will catch up with anne-marie in d.c. futures up 0.3%. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: president biden's first round of sanctions on russia hit the market with a side. they targeted a pair of russian banks and three russian elite. members of congress from both parties say the white house should do more. 14 of russia's super rich have fallen. sanctions are likely to destroy even more wealth. -- heads the list of russian billionaires. almost a third of his wealth has disappeared this year. in hong kong, the government trying to offset the escalating virus outbreak. eligible residents getting $100 in spending vouchers. authorities have already earmarked more than 2.5 billion for antivirus. apple has dropped its mask requirement at most retail stores across the u.s. following reduced covid-19 cases and changes in local mandates. apple is also ramping up for the return of indoor -- in-store classes. global news 24 hours a day on-air and on bloomberg quicktake. powered by more than 27

lisa: it feels so uncertain.han: futures are up 1.4%, from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: keeping you up-to-date with the news around the word -- around the world. russia announced that some of the troops involved in drills have started returning to bases. the military exercises had raised questions about a possible attack on ukraine. u.s.'s continuing conversations with china despite beijing's failure to live up with trade agreement. that process could soon come to an end. the biden administration's of schulz considerate unlikely that china will make any further concessions. china is not buying the amount of american goods they had agreed to. overwhelmed by a corona outbreak, there is no indication of a lockdown to bring that numbers back to zero in hong kong. five point -- $5.7 billion was -- of tesla shares were given to charity by elon musk. the world's top tennis player says he will not get a coronavirus vaccination. he says he's willing to sacrifice trophies and skip wimbledon to avoid a covid shot

when lisa: lisa: does a health crisis force his hand?rie lam in hong kong said they are not doing lockdowns and jean jinping said yes you are. treat it as it's the most important thing and we are risking the potential social uproar. what is the likely consequence 4g zheng paying? can he win this and get what is looking for in hong kong? >> hong kong is a shadow of its international past. it used to be the international center for china. the president of china is treating the covid policy as stamp it out and make it happen fast. that's his way of exerting control over the democratic movement going on in hong kong but throughout the world and china. the present of jenna's telling his international audience that china is in control. lisa: there doesn't seem to be a concern for investors. even as the pboc contemplations just contemplates easing policy, they are strengthening to the highest level. do all of the measures she zheng paying -- teaching pang -- president xi has put in, are they having an effect? >> you guys the great article about

lisa: explain the consequences. a significant statement, this idea you could be sitting the petri dish for a mass uprising a number of covid cases if they open up their borders and have near zero immunity. what does that look like for the rest of the world? dr. adalja: for the rest of the world, so long as they are vaccinated, it is not going to look back from health standpoint. but it is going to be more disruption because china is a major trading partner. supply chains, all of that will be impact that if 10 is hit hard with covid-19. people talk of a natural immunity, but the fact is the level of immunity in a publishing is important whether it is faxing use. when it comes to how resilient your publishing is going to be, how much serious illness will occur. because they have such low levels of immunity in the population, when you start seeing spread and they back off of the policies if they do not have people vaccinated, you are going to see a lot of people get infect did and a lot of people need hospitalization,

lisa: time matters.ral bankers look at consumer expectation it becomes ingrained when you start putting away the transitory word. even if they subside inflationary pressures, people have a deeply ingrained sense the prices they pay at the grocery store may be higher tomorrow than yesterday. how does the ecb deal with the expectations of consumers which is such a big talking point in the u.s.? gilles: what they can say tomorrow -- it is not as if monetary policy has not reacted to the situation. there is a tapering in europe, which was not obvious a few years ago -- a few months ago. but it will end in march. monetary policy is on a normalization path. that is one thing they can say. as a move along into the year, the ecb has been clear that probably rates also are going to stop moving. probably next year only. they need to be seen as responding to potentially adrift and expectations -- in expectations. it is not as prominent an issue as it would have been two years ago in germany. i would argue it is com

lisa: what are you doing? barry: the same thing we always do. lisa: are you holding more cash?solutely not. we manage money for 1600 families, nearly $3 billion in assets. most of it is taxable but about 40% is our qualified account and this is for requirement, for generational wealth transfer, for philanthropy. our clients think in terms of decades, not the next month or the next quarter. jonathan: thank you soap -- tom: thank you so much. barry ritholtz writing for bloomberg opinion, a hugely successful podcast as well. i see a lift in the market and i will say it is sustained. given the mix of headlines on all of these governments, to me the dollar ruble is still the litmus paper of the moment come into be above 80 show some form of vote on the combined sanction announcements. lisa: i am glad you're pointing that out. you are seeing a weaker ruble which suggests there is a successful isolation of russia by western allies. you also see ongoing resilience in equities, which a lot of people have pointed to as an indication that these sanctions were not anywhere close to how bad

lisa: it surprise the markets. the idea of a nearly 24% plunge equals about $200 billion in market cap which is netflix getting eradicated from the nasdaq. it came as a surprise because just because you so google got incredible advertising revenue so why couldn't facebook use that at a time when their users are not using them? jonathan: because people don't use facebook like tom keene does. tom: it was a surprise on the sell side because these executives feel they play with a different rulebook. they should have communicated these challenges way out front. jonathan: i made the same complaint about net flicks. when accompanied this big has market moves like this, is it corporate communications or does it tell you something about the market we are in today? tom: i believe we've got mike wilson lined up today. this is about individual stock selection which seems to be front and center this year. jonathan: it makes up 5% of the nasdaq 100. i am on tiktok. jonathan: you carry on. futures are -2.3%. on the s&p 500, down

lisa: doubtful. tom: thank you.nathan: from new york, with tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. on radio come on tv, this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ >> the market is pricing and today what is going to be a transition year for the economy. >> i think it is going to be a volatile for a while. >> we have a more volatile market environment. the optimum value of cash increases. >> investors also need to be patient to figure out what is going on here. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. on radio, on television, across this nation, we welcome you. retail sales in 30 minutes. an important consumer metric. the buoyanth

lisa: what cafe do you go to?onathan: i'm not going to tell everyone, but you have to show your passport if you don't have a state id or driver's license. that's all i've got, so i show my past port -- my passport, and a look at it for 15 seconds. it is quite an experience. on the nasdaq, up a little more than 1%. you can see i am very bitter about taking my passport out for coffee. yields in four basis points on tens. and yes, it is decaf. decaf coffee. euro-dollar, 1.1413 come up 0.1%. lisa: your heritage, i just would think you would have espresso. we are focused on some of the fed speak we are going to get. michelle bowman and loretta mester are planning to speak at 10:30 and 12:00 noon respectively. curious to hear how they set the cpi report we get tomorrow. how do they respond at a time when wages are not keeping up? real wages are near the most negative going back to 2008 because people's salaries are not keeping pace. how does the fed parse out the lower income tears most heavily affected by inflation at

lisa: i heard i missed nothing. if you look at yields, they were almost the same place they were when i left. it seems like it was an incredibly eventful couple of days. the interesting thing about oil prices are some of the projections about what that means for global growth, whether it is mike wilson, who is becoming known as a perma-bear, even though he is not, $100 a barrel would take about half a percentage point off of u.s. and european economies over the year. jonathan: 4900 on the s&p down from 5100. lisa: but that is a bullish call p of their art people coming in even further, mike wilson saying there is a polar vortex of risk. there is i diversion of opinions -- there is a diversion of opinions. jonathan: let's get the view from tom keene -- tom: what happened over the weekend and what we will really focus on this week, particularly with retail sales coming in in a few days, is growth. mike wilson mentioned date. he is focused on growth. we have been talking about it. i think we have been upfront about thi

lisa: where does the u.s. stand on the swift payment system, given the fact that they are also going to be's and the effect that come about that they are also tied closer to the united kingdom? annmarie: we do not know at this moment. what we do know is that officials have told us that every thing is on the table. the cynic in me, knowing how catastrophic that potentially could be, i do not think personally, given a lot of analysts i have spoken to, that that would be a measure they are willing to take at this moment. tom: when the president speaks, does he make and i rep statement and take questions? i am fascinated about the ballet of it, the choreography of it. what do you expect to see at 12:30? annmarie: i don't think he is going to immediately lead with the financial sanctions. i think first he's going to offer his deepest sympathies to the ukrainian people at this moment. as maria has talked about, there is violence now across ukraine. it is going to be a mass refugee crisis had already, hungarian telev

lisa: worthy earnings really that extraordinary?ebook had start warnings but can you argue that these massive mega cap companies that account for such a big proportion of u.s. indexes saw a dramatic change to force these massive increases or declines? jonathan: well ruled -- where will the confidence come from if you have moves like that? tom: it shows the separation within the market on this jobs day. there are two corporate america's. this is about technology and application of technology, whether it's direct and others using technology like ups, they are the winners. jonathan: people might say the market is struggling to price things at the moment. let's look at crude. we are still high by two basis points. there are estimates for the jobs report today. crude is out 1.7%. this is a bigger and bigger problem for central banks around the world stop they don't want higher inflation expectations to become deeply embedded. you don't get to cut out energy from your world stuff central bank's cannot do that anymore. tom: there are two b

lisa: in fairness, we are cutting spending. are seeing the fiscal drag that everyone is talking about. there is the feeling that if the government invests in things like renewable energy and certain programs, we could avoid some of the shots we are currently seeing with oil. what is your view on that? rep. hill: you look at the energy information agency's predictions for needed fossil fuel production, electricity increases between now and 2050. you will not produce that with renewables alone. we need to replace our reserves and increase our supply in fossil fuels. i believe sincerely that we should continue to invest in cheaper, more effective nuclear power, in this country and around the world, to fuel the energy demands that we are predicted to need over the next 30 years. tom: the linkage on a constructive child support with a lot of amendments, wages up, the inflation report coming out on thursday. tell me about near fully employed arkansas. what is the wage store you are hearing from businesses in arkansas right now? rep.

lisa: i could not agree more. some people are saying wait for the real reaction in equities when you start to see the action and not just the talk because he's to have the likes of peter tchir saying they are just jawboning the market. if that is the case, if they follow through, it could be the catalyst for something more significant. jonathan: i heard from greg staples yesterday, he doesn't buy it either. he does not by the shift. tom: to the theory, i just flat out don't agree. i think there was a natural disaster called a pandemic, and may in honor of bill dudley, there's a center tendency to higher inflation, but all of the surprise here could be to the downside if and only when goods inflation rolls over and normalizes. jonathan: futures down 0.2 percent. we will continue the conversation. nasdaq futures down about 0.1 percent. yields in three basis points at 1.7430 percent on tends. on tv and radio, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. more high-level talks on ukraine set

in russia, lisa, no trading. lisa: they close to the stock market today.y do not want to see it. jonathan: crude, 95. the euro-dollar down to 12.15 -- down to 1.1215. jonathan: after the weekend we have just had we are moving in the direction you would expect us to be moving. the nasdaq down by 1.4. the banks over there down by 10 %, 11%. dollar-ruble, crude -- the bank of russia goes from 9.5% to 20%. a move we have not seen since the late 90's. it could be a whole lot worse. right now the people who hold russian assets -- tom: i have been looking at correlated assets under they have not moved. i get the sense that a lot of currency pairs are waiting to see how the ruble pans out over the coming hours. jonathan: for crude and energy flows, if you jacked a bank from swift do banks still want to deal with the other bank? -- if you eject a bank from swift, do banks still want to deal with the other bank? do they self sanction? we will try to do that with you over the coming weeks and months. the federal reserve tried to get an extra hike for next year, stick

lisa: yes. tom: she's ready to go. jonathan: what is the number, lisa? it is expected to come down a bit. i was looking at the indeed.com numbers. the number is 10.3 million job openings, down from nearly 11, so how much is this a blip, and how much does this point to the tightness in the labor market? tom: we are taking notes. jonathan: is it a tight labor market or a strong labor market? lisa: a lot of people are saying it is a tightly remarket, but not a strong labor market because of the lack of participation. if you take a look at the fact that there are 1.55 jobs per each unemployed individual in this nation, gives you a sense of what tightness actually means. jonathan: payrolls just around the corner. tom: i am taking notes from lisa. that's the only way i figure out what is going on. when we want to know what is going on in washington, one of our most popular guests, henrietta treyz, joins us,, policy director at veda partners. just truly knowledgeable about capitol hill. i want to go to the old days where the senate foreign relations committee w

lisa: perhaps. we have not actually heard. we are looking at the post-pandemic economy, and is it marked by a new kind of growth in inflation, or are we back to a new normal? it seems like the market is betting on a new normal that is better than the old. tom: i don't know if we made it up for the prime minister, living was covid. that is what we are going to do. jonathan: it is some to beep prime minister has been pushing for a number of months. at least, that is the direction of travel. sweden doing the same. even australia is opening up back to tourists, double vaccinated. that is the direction of travel. but china and hong kong are not playing ball. they are doing something very different. when we think about the global economy and supply chains, you cannot forget that china is doing the 2020 one-story. tom: i don't have a 19 vix, but two or three or four days in a row. jonathan: we are down a couple a basis to 1.33%. we are backing away from the recent highs, but tomorrow is the big one. how much do things change with a s

lisa: it is a conundrum. as we get ongoing reports about some of the tightness, the fact that inventories are getting drawn down, the secured conference in munich is getting kicked off. antony blinken and kamala harris and olaf scholz, are all expected to participate. this was expected to be a broad ranging conversation about climate change and other big issues. now, everyone wants to hear whether they will increase the troop buildup in eastern europe in response to the russia-ukraine threat. what the cohesion is among the allies. we are getting a slew of fed speakers and they will all be talking about the same thing, which is how do we address past inflation? how do we understand it? we have leo brainard and john williams. they are more of the leadership. we have heard so much. i was looking at the fed going higher, basically taking a look at some of the weakness, as well as mortgage rates, which have risen to the highest rates since one 2019 -- since 2019. how much lower do you have to go? i will be looking

you want to weigh in on the -- on this, lisa? lisa: let's look at yields.onathan: let's get back on track. then for letting us go. we appreciate that. up 0.4 percent on the s&p, just a little but of a bounce here off the back of yesterday's move lower on the nasdaq. a bounce by 0.6%. the move that's got your attention and our audience, too, a break of $90 on wti. lisa: it does not make sense if you buy into escalating tensions as people tried to cash out of elevated valuations. why am watching today, the munich security conference kicking off. we will hear from tony blinken, as well as ukraine presidents a lincoln -- ukraine president zelensky, kamala harris, and german chancellor olaf scholz. how much of a buildup of troops will they support in order to counter threats from russia? today we get a slew of fed speakers. to run you through the roster, at 10:45, chris weller and charlie evans are speaking. at 11:00 a.m., john williams. this is going to be really important to listen to him of the new york fed president. does he give any guidance about frontload

lisa, that is a point you have been on top of. lisa: peter cecchini noted this is a key issue.rip out the inflation pressures, in addition to revisions downward in december, that does not look as hot as the headline might suggest which might explain why you're not seeing a big reaction of the bond market. jonathan: just a bit flatter. tom: the curve flattening, 47 down to 46. subtle is the word for the day. a lot of subtlety going on on the bloomberg terminal. simona mcuta joins us. my question is does this kind of data assist you in deciding when inflation breaks? if we are at a high level of inflation, the game is a guesstimate of when it starts to roll over. does retail sales help with that? simona: i don't think so. what i see in the data is a lot of month-to-month volatility. the january numbers were strong but put those against december and you get something much milder. that is how you gauge the trend of this economy. i do not think retail sales will help you with the inflation question. -- when we will see meaningful signs of inflation deceleration. it seems we are pull

lisa: no one knows. you have people saying that we are about to use the hyperinflation, all of a sudden that will be the topic for the rest of the hour. people say we have more entrenched inflationary pressures. then people say it is still transitory and it will feed off into the same regime we were facing pre-pandemic. i think it is really interesting, the notes from the meeting, from the fed meeting tomorrow, how much they focus on the fed balance sheet as a tool of some of their policy. tom: it is too important to let up. what is important on the hyper is not so much inflation, it is the certitude that we are coming down. jonathan: it is a collapse in the confidence of the underlying currency. it is when people go around with massive banks of cash trying to pay for things. a lot of people would like to use the h-word and there might be securities that benefit them, i'm thinking of a certain tech ceo, that's not what we have. we have a inflation? absolutely. does it deserve the h-word, look at zimbabwe

lisa: this has been the big question.t what point do higher prices lower prices because it comes consumer demand? we have not seen it yet. that i think is the big takeaway from retail sales and a lot of the retailer results that have shown record gains. jonathan: the fog of war, some really strong words from tina fordham in the last hour. "accidents can happen," she kept saying. she was very focused on what would happen next. tom: david westin watching this morning. this is way too early for westin. jonathan: westin is awake? tom: he says this is what tina is talking about, the prussian theorist from the early 19 sensory -- from the early 19th century, they need to be especially acute now. that is the skill set that is most difficult. jonathan: boris johnson saying the u.k. is to provide further military aid to ukraine. pmq is taking place right now. we bring you the headlines they pour in. looking forward to "balance of power" later this money. futures up on the s&p 0.4%. on the nasdaq, 0.8 percent. yields higher by two

lisa: thank you, yes. jonathan: is it? lisa: i don't know. i guess we are seeing it fade a little ahead of the open, but how do you value the fact that they are trying to charge $20 more per year for a prime mentorship -- a prime membership? jonathan: i spoke to mark hayes of pimco. he said we are holding more cash because we think this is it. we will see more of this, more volatility, more dislocations. we want to be in a position to take advantage of them. tom: he saw my triple leveraged all-cash fund. jonathan: and he thought, great idea over at pimco. [laughter] you're still very sensitive today. what is wrong? tom: i'm rattled by the jobs report. we are 20 minutes away. it is going to be absolutely fascinating. jonathan: i talk to you more than i talked to mark. how do i even know if mark is awake right now? don't get jealous. it's all right. no idea what is going on. wti, $92. brent pushing $93 earlier. this market is wild. futures up 0.1%. brent, $92.77. not much happening on treasuries. euro stronger as we start to think about rate hi

john and lisa, what you agree the way to solve that is to go longer, x axis out. lisa: shirt.roblem is the path matters a lot in terms of what you want to own. looking at people already forecasting going back and attack in the second half of the year, how long does it take before we get the slow down and enough data to say we are no longer write about inflation? jonathan: i am not saying it is wrong, i'm saying it is cute to separate the year that way. you can see why people are making that call that growth starts to slow and the growth scale becomes the bigger fear. therefore we are allocated to equities and that is where you want to be. there so much of the year to go. when we close down last year where were we on the two year and how much have we done in just a month. tom: i'm lose track of where we are. it is the second week of february. it feels like the fourth week of april. jonathan: it does feel that way. the things the central banks have on their side, the calendar is on their side. tom: i hate to say this, but abramowitz nailed this in her column. tantrum is the emot

from new york with lisa abramowicz and jonathan kane, i am jonathan ferro. -- jonatha -- with lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. a bounce in germany, yield higher, crude lower by 3.3%, t.k.. tom: the bounce across 24 hours, what i will say in the last 20 minutes for pros glued to this across equities, bonds, currencies, commodities this devolves off of headlines and i'm looking at rush out right now. they are literally coming out in real time and we are reacting to this. ukraine recognizing russia violates -- that gets you going. jonathan: and then the reaction from boris johnson, some of the headlines from him reacting to the last couple of days, looking closer at ownership of russian companies, the uk's the epicenter of some of that discussion. we think that russia is prepared to move at any time. we've heard that from the administration over the last few weeks. seeing russian openness to conversations. the final headline seems to be what is driving things at the moment. the optics, the style, the approach seems to be improving. i think what we would like to see his substance going forwa

lisa: complete. jonathan: it's all good. lisa: honestly, it's a sentiment shift from one day to another is just whiplash. you look at the yield curve, it's still slight, and nobody cares, because earnings are good. jonathan: i like how you said it's all good, just snark at the end there. question her sincerity. tom: it's like we're in the kitchen peeling artichokes on this show. you don't see it on radio, but the way the chill from this is just extraordinary. let's warm everybody up with a data check, jon. i'm going to go to what's not mask, which is oil, up $1.19. a bit of a pop off the opec announcement. jonathan: sitting there in the chair in the building building, everything is fine. futures up .9 on the s&p. on the nasdaq, up by 1.6. 177.51, look at the eurozone, inflation, it still has a five handle. we expected it to come right the way in on a headline number. didn't happen. euro dollar up half of 1% on that. we're positive, stronger on the euro, 113.26. tom: i'm going to mention ruble here. dollar ruble is what i loo

lisa: the u.s.ust put out this headline coming across, no new troop deployments planned, but possible. why is it so important to not have troops necessarily in ukraine from the united states? why do you think that is a tactical misstep? gen. hodges: i was disappointed when the 150 national guardsmen from florida were pulled out of their training mission that has been going on for six years there. i wish they were all still there. but when you bring in additional troops, this then looks like escalation. keeping all of our allies together is an essential part of our resistance. so i think that in this case, we want to avoid a situation that ends up with nato forces going against russian forces when it is not in a situation of article five. lisa: there has been discussion about can to beating more troops to nato and surrounding nations, not necessarily coming into direct conflict with russia. what is your view on their capacity to increase troops, especially given the nonmilitary action you have seen f

lisa: i think that was deliberate. how much is she pushing back on jim bullard's concern after the cpi report, how much was she trying to say we had to be balanced at a time when risks are on both sides and you have people saying we are moving too fast and we will break the market? jonathan: let's get to the bond markets. we can do that with subadra rajappa, head of u.s. rates strategy at socgen. i do not expect you to have a crystal ball on things associated with geopolitics. what i would like is to try to understand how negative development inside ukraine would influence central bank policy from your perspective. how do you think it would? subadra: it does play a factor because of the fact that you do not want to be seen as aggressively hawkish or raising rates too fast in a time when geopolitics is a key concern. the key indicator is the 2's/10's part of the curve around 40 basis points. any hawkish -- i've said this many times before. the last thing the fed wants to do is too aggressively flatten out the curve and

lisa: how have you changed your view going forward?ow have you changed your allocation and response to this escalation and invasion of ukraine? christian: we were a bit concerned it was going on not only because of the geopolitical side but also before, if you look at the rise here. we have been neutral in equities and the immediate reaction could be, that could be a day that's rather fine but honestly because there are sanctions, it will impact the growth as well and it puts the central bank in a kind of dilemma. so we know this is a buying opportunity today because it will take some time and we saw a little more on the equity side. jonathan: we got to run. thank you for your time. christian nolting of deutsche's private bank. the secretary-general nato saying the attack from russia on ukraine is calling -- called a brutal active -- act of war. they say they understand russia's reasonable security concern. -- reasonable security concern. tom: the interdependencies here of diplomacy, we will follow this through the morning but the head

lisa went through how many fed speakers we have today. lisa: 25 or 26?omething like four or five or six. michael: i think they will say exactly what they can say, which is nothing. they will have to say we do not know. we are in the fog of war. one thing we will say is what we know is not correct. it will take a real picture of what it will mean for the economy. a lot of that will depend on what kind of sanctions are introduced by the u.s. or the europeans. if it is a matter of rising oil prices the fed will probably look through that. they do not want to be easing into an oil crisis as they did in the 1970's. the same with the ecb. the issue is it is the growth story and if it is a growth story they have a harder decision to make, probably the slow down the pace of rate increases. the ecb pushes back the timing of rate increases. i do not think at this point any of them are likely to add stimulus. it is a question of damage mitigation and that will depend on what tack that takes, whether it is growth or inflation. it -- if it is growth, we have a proble

lisa: supply chain costs in the u.s.ere more than $400 billion higher than expected in the fourth quarter. that said, let's put this gain in perspective. this is the first time since may 2021 that walmart shares have risen after earnings, so actually, this is an anomaly rather than the norm for a company that really does represent the u.s. economy. jonathan: tells you something about expectations. 136 point -- $136.09 on walmart and the pre-market. right now, nato secondary general jens stoltenberg speaking. they call on russia to do what it says, withdraw. tom: the withdraw is the heart of the matter. early in the blinken statement, he went right to minsk, to the two agreements of 2014 and 2015. by all analysis, those were broken immediately. they need something new. that is a decision tree. putin says minsk means this. stoltenberg and the west says minsk means that. that is what we need to learn about today from vladimir putin. jonathan: futures are down 0.4% on the s&p. on the nasdaq, down 0.5%. this is bloomberg. ♪ r

lisa: look at those bond yields in italy.he question of the morning is how far will the ecb allow yields to go up, and addition to the movements that tom was just doing. but where is the put of the central banks? you see yields move pretty violently upward. jonathan: up 13 on tens. it adds to a move from last week. tom: there's is a real mystery here. i go back to marvin good come from a controversial paper at the jackson hole meeting years ago. we've got the right guest coming up in moments on this. what is going to be the seachange on the shift from negative rates to positive rates within europe, and frankly worldwide? jonathan: president lagarde speaks a little later. your focus, what is it? tom: my focus is how she will readjust off of what you mentioned last week, the migration from transitory and the headlines over to the shock of what we heard in the press conference. needs some interpretation. jonathan: headlines throughout italy and germany. the market just a little softer after the biggest weekly advance on the s&p

lisa: let's dig into that.look at the atlanta gdp now index you see the expectations for q1 gdp skyrocketing after the retail sales number we got yesterday. what in that gave you that kind of confidence considering the fact a lot of people pointed to the inflation adjustments and other adjustments around the edges that would leave it with a tepid type of scale? kathleen: no doubt the nominal number is much faster than the real. even when we adjust for inflation which surprised the upside in january, still very strong momentum coming into the start of the year for the consumer. that was way down by omicron. a portion of retail sales was quite weak. we think services will be week but the durables and nondurable goods orders were very strong. as we rotate back to in person services as health conditions get better, that could only support service spending. jonathan: we do not expect you to get a foreign policy crystal ball and tell us what will happen with you right. i wonder catch with ukraine. i wonder -- what wi

lisa: trying to have the margin calls now before things get more volatile.han: futures down a half of 1% on the s&p. a bit of recovery on the european equities. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> russian forces are closing in on ukraine's capital. sirens warned residents to take shelter this morning. ukraine's military says they are fighting russian tanks to the north. vladimir putin is shrugging off new sanctions imposed by the u.s. and europe. he spoke with xi jinping today who supports negotiation with ukraine. the biden administration is holding off on sanctions that could disrupt global aluminum supplies. white house officials met with industry representatives and told them there was no plan to target russian aluminum. morgan stanley has disclosed u.s. regulators and prosecutors are investigating various assets of its block trading business. the bank itself is under scrutiny. they are digging into how bankers and money managers carry out stock transactions big enough to move prices. fallout from russia's invasion of ukraine has reached the highest levels of soccer

lisa: what do you make of the u.s.ach, which a lot of people are calling unprecedented, of releasing intel in real time to the population, basically letting them know exactly what the troop buildup is, what they are hearing, and the disagreement among the parties? seth: i think it is quite helpful. the russians are the ones that have generally practiced historically to lead the narrative. what we have seen by the u.s. is getting intelligence out, and using commercial satellite imagery to verify with the administration has been saying. we can actually assess both of those things operating here. tom: what is interesting to me, and this goes to your book, you talk about irregular warfare. i thing my word for that is guerilla because i am the amateur. if russia prosecutes the role of war -- prosecutes guerrilla war, does ukraine have the troops to defend? seth: i think we have seen that the ukrainian population has demonstrated morale here, including ukrainian leadership. they have some weapons to do that. i think what the

lisa abramowicz and tom keene with us.reaking news here and i think it is so appropriate to go to lisa with your work at the university of chicago where you know clerkships really matter and the president is selected a clerk of justice stephen breyer to replace him. this is brown jackson, will be the supreme court nominee. your thoughts? lisa: now being reported by the associated press as well as cnn that biden is planning to name get tangie brown jackson to the supreme court, not getting distracted as he tries to replace the seat of justice breyer after his right leg nation -- his resignation. a lot of people are looking for quick action because of the liberal balance on the court -- liberal/conservative balance on the court. tom: we will make that announcement, our wonderful team in washington will cover it. i urge you to look at bloomberg opinion in the coming days from noah feldman and others from their perspective on this change at the supreme court. on short notice, we are thrilled to bring back daniel tannebaum on f

lisa: i know.nd that is what it is going to feel like more so as we get through the upcoming work week, right now it is cold. we have a little bit of fog. to purchase in the 40's. once again, oakland in the 60's today. that is above average. 70's not too far off. i will explain next. liz: also ahead, a group of moms planning a protest over a new linkage center in san francisco. why they want it to and roses are red, violets are blue, who's going to be paying a lot for valentine's day flowers? maybe you. what is behind the price increase of fresh flowers this holiday. ♪ with voltaren arthritis pain gel. my husband's got his moves back. an alternative to pills, voltaren is a non-steroidal anti-inflammatory gel for powerful arthritis pain relief. voltaren, the joy of movement. ♪ ♪ at lowe's, you never have to be finished with your finishing touches. with aisles of ways to refresh and restyle. for whatever style you're feeling. at prices you're really feelin. shop the lowe's bath style & save event now

lisa: how do you position for this? how do you take advantage of the necessary ensuing volatility that we see? alberto: unfortunately in this environment, we are in a hawkish cycle in a bear market for risk assets, so if you are holding a long-running portfolio, especially if you are in bonds, you have two outcomes. yields price because gains get eroded by inflation, so it is a very challenging market for being long bonds. particularly the reopening sectors in the economy. then we have a number of shorts because when the fed hikes, there's going to be accidents. countries with weaker fundamentals, south africa, very low spreads. we have a lot of protection for a hiking cycle along the way, and we think that is the dollar strengthens, these countries will have issues. also, weaker credits across the space, so it's a lot more nibble , lower growth and lower beta portfolios for the coming quarters with a lot more liquidity. jonathan: thank you, sir. alberto gallo with a pretty dark call on risk assets. two pieces of contro

lisa: are you surprised the u.s.d the reporting from the "financial times" saying the eu is preparing to freeze the assets of putin and lavrov? william: i should say that i am surprised europe has taken such a step. i have been trying to get the europeans to do the bearman a mom of things, and the european union has always been on the back foot, and the u.s. has always been the country taking the lead on this. so i am very surprised the european union has done this. i'm happy the european union has done this, if it is for real. i am sure the u.s. will quickly come into conformity with it. if you were to look around two weeks ago, the germans are not even ready to supply any military equipment to the ukrainians other than 5000 helmets, and now this is a pretty big step. lisa: given your intimate experience with the financial system of russia and the subsequent problems that can emerge there, what is your view on how effective some of these sanctions, some of these asset freezes could be, a time when it seems like they

lisa: who was going to convince them to do something else. there've been a number of reporting talking about how increasingly isolated he is. also from china's perspective, china hasn't come out with a hard line on what they want to do with russia and they provide a lot of foreign currency reserves. it's a big interconnection and there is pushback internally in china. jonathan: let's talk about dollar ruble. the central bank's response to it. to move rates to 20% from 9.5 percent, that's amongst the most. lisa: it recognizes how much the moves are the efforts to isolate russia financially from the world system. this is unprecedented in its scope and potential scale is some additional sanctions are considered. jonathan: good morning, a futures down by 1.3% by the s&p. on the nasdaq we are down by 1.2. european banks down. 10 year yield to lower treasuries. treasury yields down by four basis points. crude at $96 a barrel. brent through 100. lisa: a lot of people are wondering why it is an even higher given the fact our additional sanctions abou

all right lisa. thank you back to that breaking news this morning within the last hour buckingham palace has confirmed the queen has tested positive for covid-19 in a statement from the us they say the 95 year old is experiencing mild cold like symptoms, but that she expects to continue light duties over the coming week. she will continue to receive medical attention and will follow all the appropriate guidelines. the queen is fully vaccinated and boosted both her son prince charles and her daughter in law camilla recently tested positive for the virus. so we are sending queen elizabeth the best this morning 95 year old monarch, okay. developments this morning with the oakland school closures teachers students and parents help protests after the school board decided not to delay his decision to close or merge nearly a dozen schools as abc 7 news reporter tara campbell reports. the next move could be a teacher's strike. here's a rupting for moses amalata. his hunger strike is over, but the battle he s

tom keene, lisa abramowicz, and jonathan ferro.ers are negative two point -- futures are negative on the s&p 2.5%. crude is higher, up by almost 7%. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ if you're a small business, there are lots of choices when it comes to your internet and technology needs. but when you choose comcast business internet, you choose the largest, fastest reliable network. you choose advanced security for total peace of mind. and you choose fiber solutions with speeds up to 10 gigs to the most small businesses. that's virtually everywhere we serve. the choice is clear: make your business future ready with the network from the most innovative company. comcast business. powering possibilities™. ♪ jonathan: demilitarized the country and replace its leaders, the goal of the russian president for ukraine. equities down by 2.4% on the s&p. on the nasdaq we are down by 3%. coming into today, the story was already bleak for equities. we take more weight off the gains of last year. that is the equity story. we talked about military vehicles