lisa abramowicz, calm down. lisa: thank you. i appreciate that. this has been the issue, especially as we get earnings from companies that are absolutely better-than-expected with a lot of momentum in certain sectors and consumers still spending. how does the fed get ahead of this, or do we see the cooling-off more rapidly? that is the bifurcation right now with the bulls and bears on the street. tom: kailey leinz in for jonathan ferro. i thought he was back from naples. i guess he is not back. we will try to get him back tomorrow. kailey: he's not coming back, tom. tom: he told me that a couple of days ago, i'm never coming back. thank you for joining us to start off the show this morning. to me it is the partition of david rosenberg, the giant of toronto would say. there's many different parts of inflation that matter. kailey: and we will of course get a read through those different components yesterday. how much does the headline come down because a lower food and gas prices, and how much does everything else proved to be a bit stickier? crossi

lisa: i hear you.ederal reserve officials like kashkari saying we are nowhere near done. kailey: we have so much tightening left to do. inflation is very far from our target, even if it is moderating cleared -- moderating. as you talk about these things changing, financial conditions easing in the fed not being in control, does that not mean they are going to be or aggressive to get that control back? jim: i think it is interesting how much attention we devote to the fed. the fed has been behind the curve the whole time. inflation is coming down today, not because the fed lifted the funds rate for the first time in february this year, because anna terry growth, fiscal growth, dollar growth, yield growth are tightening all last year. that is what is bringing the lower -- lower economy, lower inflation. the fed is behind the curve, but the markets are going the other way and starting to ease. why should we give so much dominance to the federal reserve? tom: we had katie kaminski earlier, a rigor of mathe

lisa: i'm lisa abramowicz in for jonathan ferro.e positive lift in the market counting down to the open, which starts right now. >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading. this is bloomberg the open with jonathan ferro. [opening bell ringing] lisa: we begin with the big issue, fighting the fed. >> markets are completely ignoring fed speaker. >> the market is not listening. >> they don't want to hear it. >> i don't care what the fed is going to do. >> they are fighting the fed. >> the fed is not driving e

lisa: maureen?reen: selectively, across european credits, but we are still staying closer to home in the u.s. given the lack in the euro market. you have seen a run-up in valuations over the last few weeks. michael: i like u.s. credit more than european credit, especially if you extend it to the broader fixed income, mortgage debt and aaa clo's. lisa: to consolidate the answers, where do you expect better returns over the next six months? investment-grade or high-yield? maureen: investment-grade. headwinds in both sectors. returns continue to deteriorate. as we get closer to weakness becoming less of a technical issue and more of a fundamental issue later on, that is when we expect high yields to underperform. investment grade. lisa: i have a feeling. michael: agreed. lisa: you as well? kristina: we would echo. lisa: have we seen peak yield in the u.s. 10 year treasury for this cycle? michael: yeah. maureen: we agree. upward pressure from here. kristina: we can test 350 in 10s. lisa: i'm curious if

tom: let's get lisa in your. lisa: that is exactly where i was going to go.facility went down, that actually lower prices in the u.s. now people are expecting it because of what is going over to europe. are we pricing in a full closure in terms of the next pipeline and a look at flowing from russia europe? stephen: i want to put a caveat out there for the spread and commodity markets. highly traded, highly speculated on. an ongoing hedge fund in 2006. traditionally, mathematically, statistically, in march and april, relative to labor contract, we should keep an ion that. the lack of survival in the united states is keeping the back end of the spread very high. a likely high-risk summer. jonathan: just quickly, i saw the headline from opec-plus yesterday from the 70's. i had no idea what they were talking about. can you translate it? stephen: what they were saying essentially was the actual market, there were trading with the futures market. they came out yesterday with a pretty hawkish build even higher. that really caught the market off guard. interestingly

lisa abramowicz. lisa: yesterday we talked about the 10 year option and it was dramatic and part of the pivot of markets with yields higher and stocks lower. we will get to that later in the show. 10:00 we are watching the university of michigan survey. the headline number could rebound from incredible march downward, how much is being driven by oil prices and how much is that reflected in the five to 10 year forecast of inflation put out as part of this survey? if jon ferro were here he would say how any people delay survey, why have i never been surveyed, and we would question if this is just a signal. 12:00 usda world agricultural supply demand report will be fascinating at a time we just saw food prices surge the most since 1979. that was one of the biggest takeaways from the cpi report. what are the supplies going to look like? this goes to the weather disruptions we have seen in europe, but also in the united states, this has been try and how much does that creep production of wheat and soybeans

here is lisa abramowicz. lisa: i will be doing "real yield." and we have real yields across the board. the first time going back to before the pandemic, a fascinating turn of events given the rally we have seen. 10:00 a.m., this is what we are looking for. if we framed the day definitely, university of michigan sentiment friday. how long for the increase for how people are feeling when you get a reprieve from gas prices? this particular survey closely tracks gas prices. when they got up, people feel worse. how much do we see that trickle into longer-term inflation expectations and how will the fed respond to that? 12:00 p.m., the real world. we saw on wednesday food rose the fastest going back to prices to 1979. how much can supply come back online? how elastic is this market as we deal with drought across the country? the usda world agricultural supply and demand report comes out. we get a sense of corn, soybeans, and what is going to be a host of other commodities. on sunday, saudi aramco reporting earnings. we expect a similar boom in terms

sorry, lisa.a: there is worry about beyond october, november, when we assess the pivot, if the labor market can sustain strength. tom: the ambiguity from jackson hole, a terminal rate of 2.75 or 3%, and in a long added 5.75%. the gamesmanship. is something we have never seen. lisa: especially when oil prices have been swinging so wildly. that has been one of the most under told stories of the past week with the rally. the oil went from well above $100 a barrel to below $90, heading even lower on the nymex. how much do you see that fueling this perception of rolling off inflation? kailey: absolutely, and same thing with food prices, which have come down as well. it becomes about the sticky price pressures the fed will have to contend with because with gas and groceries, that is something the fed is continually saying we are not done yet, we will continue to push to get inflation lower. it raises the question of if the market has it wrong or if the fed has a communication problem. off 543 basis poin

lisa: tom did.onathan: futures are unchanged, from new york city, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world inflation in the eurozone zone has set another all-time high with consumer prices at 9.1% in august from a year ago. it indicates the european central bank will it indicate a jumbo rate hike next week. the justice department says the documents at mar-a-lago may have been moved before. in a filing, there was of photo files labeled top-secret found in the former president's office. they want to appoint a special master to review the documents. it's the biggest two-year decline in life expectancy and's almost a century on the covid pandemic. the pandemic has been directly responsible for more than one million american deaths. shares are falling at snap chat and they plan to lay off 20% of its employees today. the stock has fallen almost 80% this year. they are struggling with the slow in spending. micheal gorbachev is being remembered as the leader who en

lisa: good evening. i'm lisa desjards. geoff bennett is away. tonight on "pbs news weekend," an all-nighter in the u.s. senate paves the way for historic legislation on climate and drug costs. then, how shipping companies are navigating some complex waters, moving grain from war-torn ukraine to the outside world. and, tiny dancers -- how an endangered shrimp is both entertaining and educating. >> when the shrimp start eating, their arms start going really quickly and they love being in little groups, so it looks like they're synchronized dancers. lisa: all that and the day's headlines on tonight's "pbs news weekend." ♪ >> major funding for "pbs news weekend" has been provided by. >> for 25 years, consumer cellular has been offering no-contract wireless plans designed to help people do more of what they like. our u.s.-based customer service team can help find a plan that fits you. to learn more, visit consumercellular.tv. >> and with the ongoing support of these individuals and institutions. and friends of the "newshour." this program was made po

jonathan: where is lisa? tom: lisa is inside. lisa: i am not scared. bears do not scare me.an: this is bloomberg. ♪ - [announcer] imagine having fuller, thicker, more voluminous hair instantly. all it takes is just one session at hairclub. introducing xtrands. xtrands adds hundreds or even thousands of hair strands to your existing hair at the root. they're personalized to match your own natural hair color and texture, so they'll blend right in for a natural, effortless look. call in the next five minutes and when you buy 500 strands, you get 500 strands free. call right now. (upbeat music) >> i think the rally has gotten ahead of itself. >> the global economy is going through a downshift. >> there is not an acute pocket of stress in a specific sector. >> we have a large gap between jobs and workers. >> inflation is going to come down. whether it will get as quickly as the fed would like to see back to their target or not, i think it will get there. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro come in lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning. on radio, on telev

lisa: we are glad to have you. lisa: lisa goes on vacation wednesday. jonathan: futures down a little on the s&p 500, coming up, anne-marie has a new studio down in d.c., i'm told. i'm looking forward to this. tom: she is such a diva. jonathan: this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: keeping you up-to-date with nusra around the world, in china, the central bank unexpectedly cut key interest rates and the people bank of china reported an economy that's been hurt by covid lockdowns. new data shows home prices fell again in july and industrial output and retail sales were weaker than expected and other u.s. congressional delegation led by ed markey is visiting taiwan. china says it is fighting back by or --putting more military action around the island. the last visit by nancy pelosi led to unprecedented china military exercises. there is the worst energy downturn in years in europe. the rhine river is set to be at an extremely low level this week. it's an important river for the transport of fuel and other goods in the river is at a level where barges don't find it

lisa: how's it going? jonathan: for our audience worldwide, good, futures are down 1.2% and the bears are back. tom: it's a market moving day. there are some real moves. they look at eurodollar, they look at dollars yen and then they get euro yen. it's no surprise a weak euro. jonathan: can we put european gas into the mix as well? it's absolutely surging. tom: there is a war going on and it was a challenging weekend including the bombing in moscow. there is an overlay that leads you to a more negative market come with futures at -49. jonathan: the bears are back with futures down 1%. lisa: how much are we trying to position the narrative? what has changed over the past couple of weeks. people are just exhausted and now they go back to the fundamentals which don't look that great. i think that is the story. you can give jackson hole a lot of credit for this. tom: a push against the consensus, selected big tech. jonathan: jp morgan had a constructive note. believing cyclical indicator in a broad-based weakn

pay attention, lisa. [laughter] lisa: seriously. jonathan: payrolls just around the corner, coming up shortly. ellen zentner of morgan stanley. looking forward to the conversation in the next hour. this is bloomberg. ritika: keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world. i'm ritika gupta. china is striking back at the u.s., beijing announced it will impose sanctions on nancy pelosi and her family for her visit this week to taiwan. meanwhile, china is canceling military and climate talks with the u.s.. chinese forces are still conducting exercises around taiwan. there are signs that conditions in the u.s. labor market are easing. the july jobs report is out today a: 30 a.m. it will show that the u.s. added 250 thousand jobs, while the unemployment rate held close to a 50-year low. last week applications for unemployment insurance rose slightly. democrats have agreed on a revised version of their tax and climate bill. they will drop a provision that would have narrowed a tax break for carried interest. they also altered a min

i will ask when asked lisa, -- >> lisa said they expect a gang bus or economy.'t think that is the case. not only is the fed gone, but there is a sense that any good news is taken away by the fed's need to tighten. you are fighting the fed if you are bullish. it is hard to find anybody that is bullish now. i saw your prior guests. today i came back to a chip -- from a trip to australia, japan and i cannot get anyone to say anything optimistic about the economy or market. tom: this is the most important conversation of the day. because of your book beyond diversification, peter lynch called it de-worse-ification. into 2023, what character should we be now? over diversifying or a focused effort to guess the red instruments? -- the right instruments? >> the number one question is, will bonds diversify stocks if we are heading toward recession risk? we have gone back to neutral. we have had a year were diversification between stocks and bonds has disappeared. the drawdown has been unprecedented and it has shaken investors worldwide. we did need to rethink portfolio

lisa: is it fair to call this cpi wednesday? tom: no question. lisa: ppi thursday?n friday? tom: what we will see in 27 minutes is a big deal today. lisa: i would agree. markets are up, but the lack of conviction is noteworthy to me. nasdaq futures up .4%. a churn as you see heels, of their highs. yield curve inversion very much front and center, sending a pretty severe message. tom: in the last day, near 50 basis points. it two year yield higher than the 10-year yield by half a percentage point. what is amazing, suggestion that we could see more rapid curve inversion. lisa: bank of america charting that out, brian nick, as well. how you get to a disinflationary environment that is more comfortable. how does the fed influence that one way or the other? brian, what are you looking for today, where is the balance of risk? upside or downside surprise in the markets? brian: when you account for the severity of response, the risk is still to the upside. if we get a hotter than expected core number, if the rent inflation is not only staying high but accelerating, that mea

lisa: no.ughter] jonathan: it is a lot of caffeine and ginger root and fortified with german beer. you might say vitamin b and vitamin c. tom: i was just talking about this. congratulations on the transaction. it shows the entrepreneurship. i think a natural for meat would be celsius take an uber. have your beverage while you are taking the uber. jonathan: i've no idea where we are taking this. tom: you take the uber instead of fitness. jonathan: brama has issues with this segment. lisa: would we be having this discussion if you do not think it was crypto? there are acquisitions that are interesting. the idea we are finally seeing activity in the capital markets is interesting. the rally we saw is giving way to the apple transactions, to the acquisition, that is a fascinating development. tom: john took a call on the break, i wonder if he was taking paper down? jonathan: what are you implying? why are you doing this? i might not be back tomorrow. you're happy with that, i know. this is bloomber

lisa jennings was dead. the question for the detectives was, did she take her own life, or was this murder? here is keith morrison with, a crack in everything. >> it was his secret that started it. a secret gift. it was christmas eve in the year 2006. a little farm not far from a little town called buffalo, buffalo man, missouri. and on that farm a fine new house, brad and lisa jennings had made for their families. the stockings were hung. children were snug in their beds. and lisa was sitting up very late, drinking wine and crying. -- well, who knew. but for one thing, with lisa in the way, brad couldn't sneak that secret of his into her stocking. which is what started the argument of slamming doors and said it in silence. before amanda woke up to the sound of her dad on 9-1-1. >> and he's very hysterical. you know? he's crying, can't really say anything other than, get here quick. get your quick. i heard that two or three times. >> such a complicated tale. with its secrets, lies, shifting loyalties. and he

let's get to lisa. lisa: let's look at some of the earnings.show a very differentiated backdrop depending on which company you look at. cvs health beat estimates because of covid-19 tests. increased revenues because they are selling so many tests. shares up 3.6%. starbucks reported after the bell yesterday that beat expectations. people are buying more, at least the overall amount. part of this, they increase prices 5% over the year. airbnb missed expectations. their forecast is not that optimistic. is this a story of weakening demand by consumers for travel or is this a story of the world righting itself, going from a pandemic era, where people could travel forever, and now having to come home? elliott management taking a stake in paypal. they are looking for some sort of way to right size a company. tom: this is a good news story for paypal, right? lisa: the activists taking a stake, asking for cuts, and the market is cheering them. the market is also cheering under armour after coming out with weaker than expected earnings, seeing some resil

lisa: it is a labor market boom. average hourly earnings revised upward in the prior month's, state at the same level of 5.2%. it comes as the participation rate continues to fall. what do you make of this? how does this signal the tightness or looseness of a market that the fed is trying to gauge out? mike: given the hiring levels, we saw a decline in the labor force of 63,000 jobs, then again 179,000 in the household survey, while unemployment fell by 232,000. in june we saw a 353,000 number of people dropping out of labor force. the labor force is continuing to shrink which is why we see the participation rate down. 315,000 jobs in june but lost according to the household survey. now we get 179,000 back, big drop in unemployment. those who are looking for work are finding work. it looks like companies have not given up the coast on hiring even though the forecasts have been ugly. jonathan: that recession talk just got a freezing cold shower from the labor market report. tom: i think that is true. as you mentioned

lisa, please. lisa: this is what john was saying.rope, natural gas prices are 12 times higher than what they normally are. tom:tom: and that makes for standard deviations being useless. the social consequences, senior executive energy editor for commodities. what all this numbers mumbo-jumbo means to people in the netherlands where the people of the czech republic. >> well, it means two things. most importantly, that without significant help, they are going to find it very difficult to keep their homes, you can't afford that to change by a factor of sevenfold, that makes it unaffordable for most households. and whether there are going to be enough jobs for people. one thing we saw today is in the netherlands, it is just not affordable to run it with these energy prices. that is what they are dealing with and factories across europe. the german connection across 500 euros, that is five times what it was a year ago. tom: does the energy team dovetail the economics team of simon kennedy at bloomberg? do you believe governments will come

lisa: that is on one side.n the other hand there was a 1% excise tax put on share buybacks that will raise more revenue, or is projected to, that is being included. any talk about how they came to pass? why that is ok with her and not the carried interest provision? emily: one of the main things that democrats are trying to do with this legislation is make sure they are reducing the deficit. so the idea is that if you have that carried interest being removed you are going to have to bring something else to be a revenue-razor. this 1% tax was always on the table as a potential consideration. it is just that democrats did not want to raise taxes too much, or at least senator manchin and senator cinema did not want to. they will with that corporate tax and decided not to do the 1%, but now that you have the carried interest off the table they are bringing that back and having the 1% tax for companies that do stock buybacks. chuck schumer said he believes that overall this package is going to reduce the deficit $30

tom: lisa, help me here. between pharaoh -- between jonathan and rochester, i can understand a word they are saying. lisa: i didn't understand at all. jonathon: just read sometimes. that's all. can you imagine the fed forecasting this? q4 and going through the whole of next year? lisa: the issue is not the possibility of that happening. it is the issue of them saying it out loud. the fed would never say that out loud. that, i think, is the distinction. jonathon: 50 point basis hike by the bank of englund. yields lower at the long end by seven basis points on 810-year. twos and tens invert for the first time since 2019 still more to come. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> keeping up-to-date with news from around the world. china has begun military drills around taiwan in response to house speaker nancy pelosi's visit there. one of the exercises involved missiles being fired into the sea. taiwan is downplaying the impacts of the drills on shipping and airplane routes. there will be another attempt to same -- to save the

lisa: transitory failed. the idea of passing over inflation has not gone out in any way, shape, or form. how do we get ahead of that, especially given the feeling that perhaps some of these inflation aspects are stickier? jonathon: we seen some great articles this morning and throughout the day no doubt. jackson hole should be a central bank. tom: it's true. and avner bailey will show up to give his side. i think it is valid this time around. some real questions there. i spoke to the former governor of the bank of israel. he was not scathing, that was not the right word, but he was very cognizant that they have to reset here after a difficult few months. jonathon: we are talking about zero point 5% on the s&p 500. the one thing i looked at through the whole of yesterday was the two-year yield. we are five or six basis points away from the years high. lisa: with greater inversion and expectation for hawkish and us. how can he deliver on that? and if he doesn't, do you see a rally in markets, especially as they

lisa: then...s students acss the country get ready to return to school, what's keeping them safe in the classroom. and... alley-oops and drop ins, more people finding a home with skateboarding as the sport becomes more inclusive. all that and the day's headlines on tonight's "pbs news weekend." ♪ >> major funding for "pbs news weekend" has been provided by -- >> for 25 years, consumer cellular's goal has been to provide wireless service that helps people communicate and connect. we offer a variety of no contract plans, and our u.s.-based customer service team can find one that fits you. to learn more, visit consumercellular.tv. ♪ >> and with the ongoing support of these individuals and institutions -- ♪ and friends of "the newshour." ♪ this program was made possible by the corporation for public broadcasting and by contributions to your pbs station from viewers like you. thank you. lisa: good evening and hello. late last night, indiana became the first state since the supreme court struck down roe

lisa: good morning.ut june and where we are in the equity market, the s&p is still 10% higher. the nasdaq 14% higher, a gain of 14% since june 16. how much do we get a reversal? some of that positioning is getting perish into big tech names. you are seeing the head of the market open today, the loss continuing on friday. apple, microsoft, more than 1% led by apple. how much is this a dual issue of not only interest rates going up, they are moving at some of the forward earnings and valuations but also some of the semiconductor concerns percolated and reiterated by every executive on the earnings call? also watching a meme stock after jeremy siegel told bloomberg he sees a place, 10 to 15% allocation for meme stocks and the appropriate portfolios. coinbase tied to the whole crypto complex down 3.4%. how much does whiting interest rates remove the froth we saw, particularly from areas that have been hammered but have more to go? tom: we will see it with futures security, no -42 on stx futures. the dow futu

lisa: it is just about positive. the trajectory of how quickly it has collapsed, it is just dramatic. the reason why this yield curve is interesting is because it is the one that the fed has pointed to to say don't look at the spread. it is the most inverted since 2000, but we are really looking at the three-month month 10-year. so they can't ignore that anymore because inflation pressures are still there. tom: i just did what is called a fitted standard deviation study, and we have gone from plus 3.6 standard deviations on june 13 to negative two point -- whatever. it is a swing in the 10 year yield. jonathan: it is too early for that kind of stuff, tom. tom: is never too early. the national security spokesperson said this yesterday. put simply, there is no reason for beijing to turn a potential -- into a crisis conflict. let's have a conversation up next. this equity market, ripper and rally over the last few weeks. this morning, turning negative. good morning. keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world

lisa: which one?laughter] jonathan: last month for every single data point there is a brand-new story to talk about. and one thing of the last month that totally blew up everything was the employment report. it was the labor market report. it was payrolls. september 2, what are we looking for? 300,000? anywhere between 200000 and 300,000, mike, does that speak to what the chairman is talking about? mike: he talked about how the economy has slowed but the labor market remains strong. that is a reason they can keep raising rates. the ecb report, while incomes as a holder not go up much, reaches and salaries up for -- wages and salaries were up in july. i did not look at the annualized. tom: it is surveillance. you can make up a number. jonathan: in full disclosure, one person makes it up. one part of the show is made up. lisa: i want to go back to the university of michigan. it suggests the importance of gasoline prices. this survey tracks more closely gasoline prices. i'm trying to be really generous t

tom: bond market, lisa, it is real simple. fixed income speaks. lisa: speaking and not a nice way. stocks have taken notice, as well. a lot of gains this morning. bond yields coming down. how much of this is in anticipation of the weakness that people are expecting from the move the central banks will make. curve inversion, 37 basis points. the two year yield was already seven basis points above the 10-year yield moments ago. it is really flashing some red signs. tom: we have so much talk about this morning. i am going to the continued equity lift. resiliency indicated by the vix. jonathan: 13% from the lows on the s&p 500. yields unchanged on the 10 year. sub 2.70 the 10 year. hawkish for to speak disrupting the bond market. on the bank of england, mohamed el-erian writing this. the bank of england continuing with "what have been the most direct and honest commentary of any central bank." we have not heard this from anybody at a central bank about how dire they think this outlook is. tom: lee ferridge joins us now from state street corporation. i will cut to the american chase for

lisa: in the short-term. much does this mean that in the longer-term, people, sector spending or the travel sector or the balance sheet of the households. take a look at the savings rate, it has plummeted. at what point does that start to bleed into retail sales more than we have seen and into the forward projections? jonathan: nord stream 1 is running at reduced capacity. you got the russian side saying this is about turbines and servicing turbines. on twitter 10 minutes ago. i sought with my own eyes. the service turbine is there and ready for operation at any time. it has to be requested by russia. there are no technical reasons for reducing gas supply. tom: was it just a photo op? i will put that out on twitter. jonathan: futures positive a third of 1%. coming up, the atlantic council may or may not be joining us. ritika: keeping you up-to-date with newsom around the world, i am ritika gupta -- with news from around the world, i am ritika gupta. nancy pelosi spoke with taiwan fleet or and she is now on he

lisa: there is a question of why?his comes on the heels of opec-plus saying they will increase output by a mere 100,000 barrels. the lowest increase in history. it comes after a plea from president biden. how much does this indicate a lack of ability to produce more by opec members, much does this indicate a disbelief that the demand will be there? that is key in understanding the price dynamic here considering that is the push-pull of the market right now. tom: there is a tradition once the primaries are squared away. i know ms. cheney of wyoming has an important primary coming up in two weeks. all of a sudden, it is september, and all of a sudden, a gallon of gas matters. lisa: it had been mattering, coming down steadily. if it stabilizes, how does that factor into things? tom: yields are higher on the 10 year bond. 2.80%. new curve inversion, -33 basis points. nice lived in equities. futures up 29. stay with us. an interesting day. this is bloomberg. ♪ jonathan: the s&p five .6%. the countdown to the open starts ri

lisa: -- tom: lisa, jump in here. the different opinions that we've gotten here on the equity market, it is a jungle. lisa: i was just thinking it is easy, just by when it is hot and sell it when it is hot. in all honesty, we are looking at a real washout in some capacities. i am wondering how much that is going to factor into what happens next, especially through the less liquid aspects of the market. i'm thinking with private equity that has not yet been written down, and then the likes of juul, 88 percent due to an investigation, what it really reflects some of the antics that haven't been tracked in markets that are less visible. >> that is the appeal of alternatives. this includes venture capital, private equity, even farmland. you don't get a print every microsecond, you get a quarterly audit for some percentage over the course of the year. everything is updated, but that lack of daily price range, is the same thing with the house you live in. you don't get a price every morning, every hour, every day, and so yo

lisa: and how quickly do we get a response? get the immediate pomp and circumstance, the show flying in somewhere, but when do we see the real fishers begin -- fissures begin? jonathan: it is defensive out there, risk aversion. the equity market is pulling down yields as well. down about a basis point on the 10-year. the dollar strength against the euro, negative. crude just about turning around in the last hour, now positive on the session. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ this... is the planning effect. this is how it feels to have a dedicated fidelity advisor looking at your full financial picture. this is what it's like to have a comprehensive wealth plan with tax-smart investing strategies designed to help you keep more of what you earn. and set aside more for things like healthcare, or whatever comes down the road. this is "the planning effect" from fidelity. millions have made the switch from the big three or whatever comes down the road. to xfinity mobile. that means millions are saving hundreds a year on their wirel

lisa: they did a great job.t raises the question of was the rally and credit -- it was a monumental rally. what you saw was not only interest rates fell, but so did the potential perceived credit risk at a time when people were worried about recession. is that true? jonathan: more, still to come after a monster rally. kicking off august with futures slightly negative. this is bloomberg. how will your business adapt to change? you could hire an office full of peyton mannings. what's up, peyton? good morning, peyton. hold for peyton. they'd huddle.... welcome to the peytonverse. such a visionary. game plan... you go. no, you go! and call audibles... double our investment in omaha! omaha! omaha! omaha! or you could use workday. omaha. the finance, hr and planning system used by over half of the fortune 500. for a be-agile-like-an-mvp world. workday. for a changing world. >> we heard a lot of talk of recession but we have not seen any indication in the results. >> we should not obsess over whether there is a recessi

lisa: here's what i am wondering about. there is a doubt about the fundamentals that are driving that lower end and rate picture lower. it is believed that the fed is ultimately going to come to the rescue of this market and is still embedded in this market, but eventually there will be rate hikes. it is likely the expectation that quantitative typing will stop next year, in addition to rate cuts. that is still the belief embedded in markets. jonathon: priya missouri -- here we are. we are basically there. lisa: a row ahead. he tweeted out that this accelerating decline has spread. how much does that indicate recession? it has most of the time. people are saying we are beyond that. that lack of doubt you are seeing in the price action really reflecting the backdrop of easier financial conditions told by the fed. tom: i went back and looked, did some fancy mathematics. it is no math thursday. i looked at how fast we have inverted and it is literally the equivalent. we have moved 170, 180 basis points, down through zero, into

lisa: how much does the u.s.w china as having a more advanced and complicated role if there is an altercation versus a weekend -- weakening xi jinping? >> kind of telegraphing to china that the u.s. is ready and is willing to engage in conflict. neither side is wanting to do that. that is clear, but china has always wanted to be the regional -- the u.s. going back over a century has said that they do not expect -- except the notion. that is what they have in common. jonathan: where did this potential visit come from, from the speaker? >> this was before nancy pelosi had covid. it would be reinforcing that continuity of u.s. positions. i see it as an almost necessary move because canceling it would have given the appearance that the u.s. is not willing to stand up to its own positions. jonathan: we still do not know about the public type -- public itinerary. the latest reporting indicates that it will happen. i can only offer you the expectations. within this piece, they go on to say that they are expected to stay

i wrote to her and she said that lisa in kivsharivka is fine with her.same time, i don't know why my friend sent flowers to the phone, and lisa's friend also searched for a man on social networks who now lives in occupied kivsharivka, and he also claims to have seen lisa at my request he went to her house and also claims that she opened the door for him and that everything is fine with her, that is, two people have already said that liza is allegedly at home in kivsharivka, but at the moment this information is not confirmed, because at least there is no photo or video on which you could see liza, so her friend asks the residents of kivsharivka, who can see this program on social networks, to also check whether lisa is really now in kivsharivka and the girl names the exact address where lizarivka lives, the first microdistrict, the 31st building, the fourth entrance - the ninth floor and there is no apartment number, but there is a door on the left and an apartment on the left, so look again. this is the address where liza mandych lived and maybe lives n

lisa: and for how long. they can hold for two months and then they could hope for two years and we are getting into the territory. the market is priced for holding for two years at 3.5%. is that true? given the fact that any rally and equities would be met with high skepticism from fed officials. jonathan: is amount -- not just about rates but about qt. i think that's what we need to talk about with the fed officials. i want to hear what you think the balance sheet reduction and what it means from the rate hikes you think they have. tom: the media is so fixated on the interesting game. what i found that surprised me is however pretty is going to her the three of us have been talking for months which is the duration of this. ford and guidance, dead -- forward guidance, dead. jonathan: let's get to the price action. equity features this morning down one third of a percent. yield higher by five basis points to 3.74% -- 3.074%. yields up by a basis point. lisa: with the expectation of hawkish tone. giving what w

lisa mandych called her friend and said that she was very scared. well, that's what they said., it's scary that there are planes flying there, and they are very close. well, to russia, if it was the kupyan district , the mother of lisa's friend also joined the search, and the woman told us what happened. contact with liza was only in the first days of the war, and then it disappeared altogether because of contact with her, she did not go anywhere, well, not in any country, not on instagram . girl she made herself known and wrote a message, and then she suddenly appeared on may 27, literally for 5 minutes, she sent two such messages that i was in the lpr and going to a vacuum, that is, whether she was being taken away or she was with her parents, she did not write anything, and the connection was interrupted, therefore since may 27 and until now there is no contact with the visa. however, her friend and her mother do not stop searching and say that very important information recently appeared, which really inspires hope that everything is okay with lisa. at the same time, lida d

let's get back over to lisa. lisa: good morning. we have fog it is at the coast, it's dense in spots, but otherwise, pretty cool in some of our north bay locations on novato dropping into the 40's this morning, but on the peninsula, we're if the upper 50's san bruno. redwood city, good morning, 52. 60 in napa. so really wide ranging from cooler to warmer in parts of the north bay and east bay. 9:00 a.m., boy, a lot sunshine, upper 60's, and 70's. noontime, we're in the low 80's inland. low 70's for oakland. remember, that's where you were all month long in july. 80 up in santa rosa and by the afternoon, look at the mid 90's coming into play, well up into the north bay, the east bay and san jose warming up to the mid 80's. fog comes back, keeping the coast comfortable but boy we are cranking up the heat for the week ahead. liz: lisa thanks. this morning, famed author salman rushdie remains hospitalized with serious injuries while he was stabbed preparing to give a lecture in upstate new york. the man accused of attacking him aperiod

lisa. hi, liz. good morning to our marine layer. somewhat compressed. we do have fog in the north bay. you can see it along the peninsula here and a little bit into the east bay temperatures a couple degrees cooler this morning 59 down by sam bruno and foster city with 61 in oakland 60 in concord. look outside there with the low cloud deck from san francisco temperatures today will be fairly similar to what we had yesterday. we're going to get some sunshine in throughout the mid-morning hours coast staying rather cloudy 60s there upper 60s to around 70 around san francisco low 70s across the bay in oakland with some low two perhaps mid 80s in our inland valleys the breeze keeps us cool with nature's air conditioning throughout the afternoon. we'll talk about our subtle warm-up to come for the week ahead and whether it lasts through the labor day weekend in a few minutes liz. alright lisa. thank you. it's been a violent weekend in the east bay oakland police say four people were killed in tw

lisa: yeah. that was fun. i can't believe it was 10 years ago. yeah. it's going to be a nice day today for the giants game, a day game, 1:05 p.m. temperatures in the 70's. but pretty warm with the sun, but the breeze will be with you as well if you're headed into the city, for that. as we check out the view here of live doppler 7 right now, fog as we get in closer from the san mateo close, and the central coast, it is patchy, up towards point braves, dense in spots as well, but you can see here from the golden gate bridge, that little bit of a breeze, but the fog it is above the deck here, 57 in san francisco. it is 59 in oakland, palo alto, 54. half moon bay at 57 and 56 in santa cruz. a high of 80 today. 17th rose in the low 50's. up -- santa rosa in the low 50's. cooler for novato, you dropped down into the mid 40's. we'll be looking at warming trend to really get going today. there's a look at the shark tank. coastal morning fog, warm to hot today. it will be pretty comfortable at the coast w

our lisa desjardins has the latest developments. hello again, lisa. so, what happened here? they get senator kyrsten sinema on board? is this a different bill? lisa: it is a dferent bill. in large part, this is the same bill we have been talking about. climate provisions, health care provisions. but there were some things that she did not like. the carried interest provision that she did not like that would help hedge fund managers is out of the bill. those hedge fund managers, they will be seeing their taxes smaller next year. something kyrsten nema was able to get was money for drought relief. as i know many viewers are aware, we talk about the drought in the western part of the country that has been severe. that includes the grand canyon state. billions, i am told, kyrsten sinema was able to get for that provision. she got on board late last night, and we believe there are 50 votes for this bill, although we have not seen the full text. judy: given that it is not a done deal yet, what needs to happen now? lisa: there is a lot to talk about. many of my sources and staffers

kumasi: lisa, did you do your test? lisa: was not available.k a test that basically assigned us based on our personality a beyonce song from renaissance. given that lisa couldn't take it, what should we assign her? kumasi: cozy. lisa: yes. kumasi: i love that song. reggie: it's a perfect fit. cozy. [ laughter ] lisa: hopefully you like what we have to offer. it's pretty bright out there in some spots. marine layer, different version of this morning. it is diffuse and broken up. as you look at live doppler 7, there's a clear spot inland and up in the north bay. fog pulled away from the coast around the golden gate bridge. there's a look at the camera. it is 60 downtown, 62 in oakland, 55 palo alto and santa clara. 53 in santa cruz. mid-70's today. beautiful day if you're lucky enough to head to the shoreline. 52 santa rosa. 58 by the delta. the fog has been stuck here in santa rosa. elsewhere not an issue. as we look at that deck of low clouds pushing inland it wants to reach our inland valley. some of it has moved in the gaps there and valleys.

is that dorky or effective, lisa?d he's really america's governor. a lot of republicans are asleep at the wheel right now. i don't know what time it is and they think our biggest fights are things like taxes and things of that nature. one of the biggest threats zone government, being weaponized against us. corporate america and the media are extensions of this government who hates us, so he is fully awake to the threats that we face, and that's why he is out there fighting every single day. the hilarious thing is a lot of these people who say that he is a fascist are people who are cheerleaders lockdowns, vaccines sales people, who pushed policies that aren't freedom-loving. these aren't for individual liberty. governor desantis, if he hadn't fought against the groupthink narrative on lockdowns, what would be happening in the country right now? he showed a way you can be free and still keep citizens safe. you can still invest in individual liberty and keep your citizens safe. so i'm a huge governor desantis fan as evi

for the pbs, i'm lisa desjardins. judy: today for the first time since speaker nancy losi visited taiwan, beijing retaliated against the united states, cutting off dialogue on multiple topics. nick schifrin has that story, and sits down with taiwan's most senior official in the u.s. nick: beijing is forcing taiwan to pay the heaviest cost for pelosi's visit. but today, china targeted washington and announced it would suspend dialogue on climate change, what a senior u.s. official characterized as punishing the whole world. militarily, it is cancelling talks between regional commanders and defense policy officials, as well as meetings to discuss operations, which a u.s. official warned could lead to misperceptions and miscalculations. and today, beijing sanctioned pelosi and her family. as for taiwan, china has launched the largest military exercises around the island in 25 years. the chinese are firing missiles into blocks that surround the island, some within taiwan's territorial waters. and to discuss this, we are j

lisa:. is a look at our low cloud deck and we have the fog around los altos along the san mateo coast and looking toward hayward and fremont. temperatures in the low 60's right now. 50 with a little fog in santa rosa. we will see the low clouds and fog this morning give way to sunshine is the dry air who roads the cloud deck. -- erodes the cloud deck. not a whole lot warmer today but 5-7 degrees in the inland valleys and that will spread around the day. the low cloud deck is making a push inside the day. -- inside the bay. it's extensive. the typical pattern we have for the summer time, shy of 90 into wednesday but by thursday, we warm up but still staying comfortable friday with 60's and 70's. 72 in oakland today with low 80's in santa rosa. pretty pleasant with low to mid 80's inland. jobyna: good morning, we are starting with a live look in emeryville. we don't have any major issues or advisories. a good time to head out the door for your commute. looking live itt headlights are traveling

lisa argen is tracking windy forecasts. lisa: well over 100 degrees. we have some cooling on the way. five to 15 degree drop in temperatures. relative humidity is still low. 54 in nevada. it is cooler along the peninsula. through the delta, we have winds up to 30 miles per hour. 50 start out. low 60's and looking at 70's and upper 80's. we have another warm-up on the way. >> firefighters are still on the scene of a wildfire. the fire broke out along the lake. calfire says they managed to stop forward progress. it is 20% contained. fire crews are working to put out the hotspots. a person walking was hit and to be okwara's crashed. some pretty violent video. it is one of several that broke out across the bay area. another sideshow broke out near highway 87. you can see how close cars came. others were upset, understandably. >> i think it is a waste of time. do not be holding up other people. >> this was the scene in front of great america. a line of police kaiser eventually did clear. downtown off to 80, the fire started in the creek, but flames ran alon

pat: thanks, lisa.mna: as we reported earlier, it was another day of grisly attacks on civilians in ukraine, as russian forces struck a train station in the central region of the country, killing and wounding dozens. that strike coincides with ukraine's independence day and comes exactly six months since the start of the war. it was a stark reminder of the brutal fight already waged and the battle ahead. residents in kyiv awoke to the usual wails of air raid sirens, but an unusual parade featuring destroyed russian tanks rolled through downtown, as ukraine marked its first independence day since russia's invasion, a show of defiance six months into the war. in a poetic address to his nation, ukrainian president zelenskyy promised victory. pres. zelenskyy: a new nation that emerged on february 24 at 4:00 a.m., not born, but reborn, a nation that didn't cry, didn't scream, didn't get scared, didn't run away, didn't give up, didn't forget. this flag will be everywhere it should be by right, both in donbass

lisa, you were saying you like the launch but not the idea of the doughnut. lisa: yeah. i don't want to write on anyone's parade but definitely take the launch and check outside where we are on our way to run nice afternoon. bright and breezy out there. low clouds and fog for most of us but we will talk about some mid-80's inlet and a slow warm up for the week ahead, next. liz: that is a lot for 5:30 in the morning. also ahead, a former detention center in the bay area for japanese-americans unveils a permanent gallery to honor survivors. we will hear from so now you can save big on supersonic wifi from xfinity. can it handle all of my devices? all that. and it comes with a 2-year rate guarantee. what?! ok! no annual contract. no equipment fees. oh, and a free streaming box. i like streaming. it's all just $50 a month when you add xfinity mobile with unlimited data. will you add a motorcycle? no. did you say yes?! the new xfinity supersonic bundle. it's kind of a big deal this labor day, we want you to enjoy all the fall things, without worrying about affording all the t