. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jon: you can smell the capitulation. from new york city, good morning, this is bloomberg surveillance alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. equity futures up but it's the theme of the last several weeks, higher forecast for growth and yields. tom: readjustment as global wall street tunes and on radio and tv. reset the bar, 2% to 2.25%. the key point is this summer, that is like tomorrow. jon: 2.25% at -- what interests me at this point are the strategists that are starting to lean the other way. morgan stanley mike wilson on small caps went long in april last year and is telling investors to reduce that position. i think that's where things get different. -- get interesting. is that the peak or is it peeking? tom: that's the game of wall street. i looked up transitory on merriam-webster, and the big bed of transitory inflation, merriam-webster quotes john cochran of the university of chicago and their use of transitory. i would say that a more recent word. jon:

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. equity futures down 11 on the s&p, -0.3%. increasingly i feel like we are going to have this conversation around u.s. exceptionalism for a while now. tom: it is very lonely, the success of the united states and all of the medicine we heard from dr. adalja of johns hopkins a moment ago. the tape at 6:00 was grim, and it has simply gotten better here as we try to digest that hughes -- that huge move in the dow yesterday. jonathan: i will push aside that down move. a big session. tom: the russell 2000 moving as well. jonathan: they all are. the compare and contrast between the united states and the rest of the road right and was fascinating. europe struggling to roll out this vaccine. early bad news, and not just about the supply. it is now about the acceptance of the astrazeneca vaccine in the population. in china, pushback from the regulator about bubbles. then the you have the u.s., pedal to the metal. tom: overnight, ed morse publishing new ranges on oil, but is a range about idea? i

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro.ng into that muted price action, what's call it 1.60 on tends. the euro slightly firmer here. the equity market, your s&p 500, futures of three, by about 1/10 of 1% after more all-time highs in yesterday's session. tom: the research notes, i think we have done a good job of getting on top of. red and green on the screen, the vix, 20.04. let's ask the chief washington correspondent, kevin cirilli. you know the people bouncing around republican politics, bouncing around democratic politics. one of them is jean sperling, has been through different democratic administrations of different flavors. he is the keeper of the stimulus. what will jean sperling do for president biden? kevin: transparency to make sure there is no hijinks so to speak. secondly, he provides an opportunity and a link to the private sector as well as the government sector. ultimately that is why he was chosen for that post. tom: he will get on the phone and put out fires, give us an example of a stimulus fire? kevin: i

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro.our yield a little earlier today north of 1.77%. right now, 1.76%. yields are higher by five basis points. tom: we've got red and green on the equity screen, but all said and done, the markets exceptionally resilient. you roll into wednesday and thursday with claims, and then jobs day friday, and you wonder whether it is the first inkling of that 8%, 9%, or even 10% boom economy. jonathan: payrolls. you keep going, these numbers are huge. tom: ethan harris will join us, of bank of america. what is important is where the survey migrates wednesday, thursday, friday. if we go 6.50% to 6.75%, that is the kind of trend -- if we go 650,000 to 675 thousand, that is the kind of trend. lisa: will there be enough investors, especially as you do get this question mark about how much the fed will allow that long and to rise? at what point does good news become bad news for markets as we see the rising yields really pressure some of the more levered positions across markets? jonathan: right now the

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro.e price action, up call it 46 points higher on the s&p favre -- s&p 500. we are absolutely flying on the nasdaq. real turnaround from the last 24 hours. yields up and yields lower, down seven basis points. this great rotation all started with the first headline on the vaccine at the start of november. since then, to borrow a phrase, small caps truly to the moon. tom: and again, i want to emphasize in the last hour of our simulcast, we have seen a nice lift to the market. right now and the headline i'm sure all of you saw yesterday, from the cdc of atlanta, amateur doll john joins us with johns hopkins. i know the cdc was a cool place to work million years ago, they did malaria out of world war ii and built out the excellence of america in microbiology and virology. that headline yesterday when you saw yesterday, how did you respond? >> i thought this was something well anticipated that people wanted to get guidance like this. i expected cdc guidance to be cautious, and i think they wer

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. -- alongside lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathanerro. tom keene will be back on monday. your yield on the u.s. 10 year up 10 basis points to 1.61%. lisa: when do higher yields not necessarily mean lower equity valuations? now that we have jabs in the arms promised by may and checks in the mail this weekend, perhaps we are getting closer to the end. jonathan: cyclical outperformance has been the story over the last couple of months. now you have to look at what you own. the number four weighted stock on the russell is gamestop. [laughter] a lot of companies on this particular index, and number four gets you 0.15% of the overall benchmark. but that at the story right now. what do you own? lisa: tom keene took the day off , i believe, to decide how much to give to gamestop. again, is this ownership possibly a positive when you get the stimulus checks going to be pull, and you've got -- going to people, and you've got 40% of people surveyed by a recent wall street bank saying they plan to spend that to buy stocks? i mean, which stocks a

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. futures down a single point. steve may not show up. jonathan: maybe he will be there, maybe he will not. maybe lisa will be there to tell you about looking around corners. lisa: [laughter] ritika: with the first word news, i am ritika gupta. joe biden is blending the first major federal tax hikes since 1993. the money would pay for the long-term economic recovery program designed as a follow-up to the pandemic relief bill. that package will include initiatives on admin structure, climate, for poor americans. former president trump is bowing to punish house republicans who voted to impeach him by backing primary challengers in a new congressional map based on the 2020 census may do some of his work for him. six of the 10 expected to vote -- six of the 10 who voted for impeachment are in states expected to lose seats. they could move to another district where they face another incumbent. bloomberg has learned the eu is preparing to start legal action against the u.k. and a major escalation of post-brexit tensions.

alongside lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro.om keene back with us next week. the fed speak this week is overwhelming. chairman powell today and tomorrow. a lot more still to come. lisa: what are they going to communicate? they kind of hit a homerun last week. if you take a look today, all is calm on the ball in front -- on the bond front despite the fact the fed is taking a new stance on inflation. they are letting it run hot no matter what. jonathan: we know what emerging markets would like to hear. i'll earlier i with a move of about 10% -- dollar lira with a move now other about 10%. how often have we seen this move, the car crash in turkey, and then people buy back in every single time? lisa: it is a casino. federated hermes is saying this is perhaps so bad it is good, given the fact that there is so much money lying around in deposit accounts. a lot of people are saying, why not gamble on that if you are ga -- if you're are going to gamble on gamestop? jonathan: there's a defensive tone to this market. you see it in the nas

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. .56 percent.dp report comes in about an hour to --from now. the curve steeper. 144 basis points is your yield. tom: small caps lead the russell two thousand one .1% there. within the range of the tumult of the last 20 days. victory lap for kevin cirilli, a smart interview with a progressive, senator warren from massachusetts. the distinction you saw? kevin: the space between secretary ellen and senator warren. that will only continue to be explored both in the financial services press but also as we inch forward and beyond president biden's first 100 days. there is a cosponsor we have spoken to, congressman brendan boyle. he represents suburban philadelphia. he is a moderate democrat. he is a cosponsor. pennsylvania battleground state come as a long-term application, but also speaks to this broader point about how her ideology is now shaping the bourbon congressional districts in a way that in 2013 we did not say. tom: i want to dovetail senator warren's comments with the reality. the battle of 20

jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and tom keene. lots of stories today. john, i have to go to the 10 year yield. the litmus paper for chairman powell through 1.67. jonathan: this is a new post pandemic i've. several weeks back the chairman said it was a statement of confidence that the yields were higher at the long end. the key when a session will be fascinating later this afternoon. tom: it's that forecast adjustment, michael mckee is in attendance. and against us as the atlantic divide as the vaccine disaster is discussed. it's tangible. tom: but -- lisa: but who are they blaming? are they saying the vaccine does not work well enough or that it has not ramped up production enough? the european union considering emergency measures to ensure the vaccine supply. this comes at the same time as a slowdown in distribution of the astrazeneca vaccine despite dr. hama should all just saying they are wrong. tom: john, i need you to explain this. you have lead on this end it's not just the partition of europe and america, but of europe and the united kingdom. jon

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. -- alongside lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathanwill be back on monday. your yield on the u.s. 10 year up 10 basis points to 1.61%.

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market taking a dive on the nasdaq, off by 180, down by 1.5%. the outlook gets better. the data gets better. that's bad news for big tech. tom: the tape is marginally better over the last 90 minutes. the vix tells me a lot at 27. we are not at the 30 level. jonathan: the data is better, the outlook is better. through on top a $1.9 trillion plan out of d.c. lisa: although this is not stemming necessarily as much from inflation as much as real yields. real yields rising, still negative, but there's a question , how much the fed will cap any yield rises as people give any outlook to the global growth -- any outlook on the global growth outlook. jonathan: on the s&p 500, down 21 on the s&p, -0.6%. in the bond market, 1.5907%. in the bond market, euro with a $1.18 handle. that dollar has made a comeback. euro-dollar comes in 0.4%. lisa: how exactly does this play into the global reflation story, when you talk about how much this was underpinned by a weaker dollar? this is somet

alongside lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro.om keene off all week. lisa: the bearish feel is in bonds and stocks, and that is very interesting because it goes against what we have seen recently. higher nasdaq means lower yields. higher yields means lower nasdaq. we are assessing the potential for a third wave in europe. jonathan: the contrast between europe and the united states is phenomenal. we have been talking about it in markets for about three months. i am wondering whether we have fully priced that story just yet. euro-dollar has had a move down to one dollar 18 cents. have we reached the inflection point where we have both peak optimism in the united states a look of to peak pessimism in europe? lisa: there's also a question of whether people are fast forwarding too much. europe will recover. there will be enough vaccine. they will emerge from the pandemic. at least you are in the trade. the idea is that people are fast forwarding to a time where the u.s. isn't recovering as quickly and europe is the one that is leading.

alongside tom keene, lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro.your market this monday morning, up 40 on the s&p. we advance a little more than 1%. thursday, your high -- the 10-year, thursday, your high 1.61%. right now, 1.43%. royal caribbean commencing a $1.5 billion proposed offering of stock. tom: what of the airlines doing? that's what i don't understand. jonathan: you bring up this story, and i think it is important. what was gamestop doing? it was a big conversation over the last couple of weeks. why didn't they do something similar and take advantage of the rally to raise some capital, raise some money? tom: amc, i believe, did it. jonathan: they did, yeah. tom: they are gyrating around. let's go to kevin cirilli, our chief washington correspondent. i want to go to what i saw this weekend, which is the stimulus coming up with the senate, a president of the united states looking for new momentum, and the overwhelming reality of six house districts coming up in less than two years. dovetail those together into the forward momentum this week

i'm lisa abramowicz. jonathan ferro and tom keene back next week.rg surveillance. ♪ jonathan: testimony on capitol hill. from new york city, good morning. the countdown to the open starts right now. 30 minutes away from the opening bell with equity futures down nine. -.25%. the push and support for an unprecedented spending spree. >> these numbers are big. >> $3 trillion. >> coming off a huge influx of fiscal support. >> the nearly one point $9 trillion package. >> 2020 to 2024. >> trillions of dollars worth of debt. >> this is simply a u.s. government that has lost their fear of debt. >> driving the u.s. economy by a boom in gdp. >> and the focus of monetary policy. >> they want to grow their way out of this problem. >> we care about what the fed is going to do, we care about

tom: you sound like lisa abramowicz. he absolutely nailed it.hina like gdp is going to go away and we need to be working to get michael feroli's gdp under two percent. i guarantee you it is going to happen, but along the way, will corporations meant money? what are they going to do with it? lisa: also come as it does -- also, does gdp really matter? we have looked at these other measures that have longer-lasting abilities, and we're looking at whether it is a u.s. exceptional list story, and whether it is global. going back to markets, if the dollar comes strong, you have to wonder whether the global reflation story continues. jonathan: it is a simple way to cover a complex story. this year we will see the boom. as of yesterday, it is amazing that the bulls and bears agree on the same thing. you will get that boon in a few months' time. it is what happens within that boom, how your perceptions of policy change. what does inflation look like? how transient is it come and how does that shape out for 2022? the view into 2022 comes into sharper focu

alongside lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. tom keene back with us on monday. your equity market back up. we advanced 0.3%. we are still reacting to that move we saw in the russell yesterday, lower at 3.6%. lisa: a big decline there. mona mahajan mentioned this, talking about the retail investor being really involved last year. i really want to emphasize how much we are seeing retail investors perhaps take a pause themselves as they can actually spend money on things like airplane tickets. maybe not in europe, but certainly in the united states. they can actually go out and use their cash. this to me as one of the biggest swing factors in the next couple of months. jonathan: it plays into the broader theme. the cliche, you buy the rumor, sell the news. this is between peak expectations and peak growth. want to make a move before you see the data. you want to make a move around peak expectations, which is terribly difficult to do. we have started to see expectations really ramp up over the last several weeks. you see that in the

i'm jonathan ferro, back together with lisa abramowicz. equity futures unchanged on the s&p 500, negative on the nasdaq. tom, that is a move we have seen before, nasdaq lower and yields higher on a 10 year. jon: coming back in the last 20 minutes, markets to me are one of the major stories. this is a difference tuesday morning. the correlations are there as we drive toward a biden speech, and particularly as we drive toward the jobs report. there's continuing unraveling of the greatest margin call since time began. i'm waiting for james gorman and morgan stanley to tell me what the house of morgan stanley wrought. jon: asking the right question, would it lead to broader reduction of leverage of prime brokerage? what was offered to some of those clients? tom: i thought wigglesworth was a great short about what is going to happen this time. how can we have ltc m at 98, how could we have the irish bank lobe of 2008 and have it happen again? how do we happened so the prime brokers are on the same page because they don't have the transparency.

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz i'm jonathan ferro.equity market comes in a single point. stable on the s&p 500. let's bring in michael mckee. michael: this will be the most important release of the month next month. this month is the month before we get to the base affects, which will be pushing inflation way up. we do not see a big jump europe rate cpi on a month over month basis up .8%. -- we did not see a big jump. cpi on a month over month basis up .8%. the headline up 1.7% on a year-over-year basis. that was forecast. gasoline, one of the big culprits, up 6.4% in february. it accounts for half of the increase. you can expect that to bleed into next month because oil prices continue to rise. food up .2% in february. we should see services rise on a regular basis once we start to see the economy open up. right now services, less energy, up just .2%. the number we look at as a substitute for housing, that is up .3%. that is the biggest gain in some months because it is at .1%. rents may be stabilizing around the country. tom: we do

alongside lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro and tom keene on vacation.ys gives me a hard time so in the equity market, the s&p 500 is up a couple of points. in the bond market, yields three or four basis points. yes, we are a little bit risk off. the real story is the turkish lira. dollar-year at -- dollar-lire down by 8.9%. the turkish leader deciding to get rid of another central bank governor. the new governor will focus on price stability, no doubt. he believes in a policy not unlike what we have seen from the turkish leader with somewhat higher interest rates leading to higher inflation and lower interest rates lead to lower inflation. in this particular central bank, it's said he will focus on price stability. we have to understand what he think leads to price stability and for him it's different than what we see elsewhere. lisa: there was also the question of why president erdogan and the former governor was not doing the right thing because he had achieved more price stability for the lire on the global stage. you have a situation where what he w

jonathan: alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro.surprise from retail sales. the price outlook dominates the market worldwide. this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i am ritika gupta. a bipartisan group of senators wants to revamp the law covering tariff used on national security grounds. section 232 of the trade expansion act imposed to duties without a vote by congress. those tariffs have been challenged in the u.s. and by the wto. the proposal would give congress more of a role. top u.s. officials are trying to rally asian allies around a common approach toward china. secretary of state antony blinken and defense secretary lloyd austin went to tokyo. blinken accused beijing of using coercion and aggression in places including hong kong and taiwan. more potential problems for the boeing 787 dreamliner. bloomberg has learned the company is looking at the flight deck windows of some of its 787 after it found out a supplier modify the production process. manufacturing has delayed the delivery of the marquis jetline. vis

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro.e are flying on the nasdaq, up by 1.6%. up about 0.6% on the s&p 500. president lagarde a couple of hours away. tom: the ecb front and center, but i want to talk about what is not happening this morning. yesterday we got a whole bunch of corporate announcements that were very worthy for the stock market to move higher. we don't have that today. can you imagine what this tape will do if we start to get constructive resets by america's big companies? jonathan: companies are confident for a reason, because we are talking about higher gdp growth this year. a 7% over at morgan stanley for 2021 gdp. tom: to me, it is the blunt instrument of economic growth that overwhelms that. i am really watching those dynamics. ian shepherdson last hour came in a little quieter, 5% or 6%. a lot of people are higher. jonathan: as this year grows older, the static gets a lot -- this data gets a lot more interesting. lisa: stocks are looking at the data that will be, basically protecting it out. so when we g

lisa abramowicz, texas. we have had people in texas saying they do not agree. think of the pressure on other states of the same political mind. lisa: everybody wants it to be over. that is not enough. someone highlighted this idea of variants that could be resistant to inoculations. will that fuel the public pressure to keep things closed? tom: the simon kennedy tour de force shows charts with the abrupt shift out there. do we all agree that the mystery is the timeline of the use of cash? one quarter, one year, five years? jonathan: not just the timeline. i wonder where the money goes. lisa has been on this point. we have a lot of savings and a lot of cash in money market funds, but where is it coming from? direct aid, savings, or is it because there is debt that has not been paid? lisa: all of the debt moratoria. people deferred rent. that will get paid back with these. saving there is a question whether. they will be secure enough in their job prospects to spend. then what will they spend on? will they go have dinner? get haircuts? tom: they will do what they

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro.ing you down to the opening bell, about one hour and 12 minutes away, here's the price action. equities lower, yields higher. down 10 on the s&p, declining on the nasdaq. yields higher by four basis points, off session highs. we did have a look at 1.77%. dollar index, 93 handle. euro-dollar, $1.1742. tom: 1.75% on the 10 year yield. all in all, a resilient tape into three important days for the american labor economy. gregory meeks joins us, a democrat from new york. this could be a two hour conversation because of his perspective on foreign affairs and his perspective as a congressman from jfk airport, the fifth district in new york. congressman meeks, on infrastructure, new jersey is worse than new york. that's all we need to know. [laughter] new york is doing fine right now by any civil engineering study. you get off the plane in new york, at laguardia, at jfk, there's a lot of roads that are troubled come up bridges troubled -- are troubled, bridges troubled. how do we fix this wit

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. nathan: good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. your 10 year yield in and around 1.62%. nasdaq futures off their lows, -0.25%. lisa: there's a question about yields going higher, especially after the ecb tried to ease policy yesterday. really interesting to hear kit juckes talking about 2% is the goal, and until we get there, it is going to be rocky. jonathan: the meeting march 17 -- the federal reserve meeting march 17. 5.2% is the median view in our survey right now for growth and -- for growth in america for the year. lisa: how much does that hinge on the infrastructure plan getting past? does this just account for the 1.9 trillion dollars stimulus that just made its way through congress, an addition to the reopening? the better that growth gets, how much more emphasis will there be on getting other material changes to policy that could prolong the growth? jonathan: that has been a big debate over the last couple of weeks, and that really got going wit

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. off by 2/10 of 1% on the s&p 500. there payrolls report two hours, 30 minutes away. tom: the jobs report -- what occurred overnight is the plumbing -- a word we will hear a lot of today -- the plumbing of the fixed income markets as seen in the overnight market -- paper markets, and the repurchase market, the so-called repo market. we have a great set of people to drive forward the joint conversation of the jobs report and challenges of liquidity. jonathan: and throw in a little chairman powell. is he stuck between a rock and a hard place or what? tom: truly a lose-lose position. and if it is chairman powell or chairman greenspan, it does not really matter. looking at salvation from the chairman of the federal reserve system, there's only so much he can do. i believelisa's reading the entire document on the floor -- jonathan: she is -- lisa: 700 pages. jonathan: she is doing that because we have not. what is in it? lisa: a lot of interesting stuff. i have not gotten to the end. i will

this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro and leeson abramowitz print -- lisa abramowicz. >> alongside tom keene and lisa, i'm jonathan ferro. up 20 for the s&p 500. the president of the united states advances the vaccination timeline. tom: i think this folds into what texas has done with a full reopening by march 10. but also to get onto that 300 million number the president is suggesting is really important. what's become a trading range i go back to february 8, we are getting back a good three or four weeks of going nowhere. jonathan: the gains we've seen in financials and energy has been the story of the last month. tom: that the active passive debate so many viewers and listeners are talking about. we are used to 1.4 port -- 1.44%. this will be different of the real yield of three weeks ago. we are getting a little bit of comfort. jonathan: some massive moves in the treasury market. putting together the fact we are advancing the vaccine timeline and you throw in the governor of texas reopening. you add in $1.9 trillion fiscal plan, just enough reason, many reasons to

alongside lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. joining us later, chris. looking forward to that check a little bit later. equities are high. we bounced back 10 points on the s&p. yields higher. a little bit later today, some supply from the treasury and president biden, his first proper news conference as the president of the united states. we will talk to kevin cirilli a little bit later on the program about just that. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> it is the first real test on north korea for president biden. kim jong-un's regime fired two ballistic missiles, a violation of un rules. it was the first north korean missile launch in roughly a year. an elite crew will try to free that massive container ship blocking this was canal -- the suez canal. the stakes cannot be higher at what is considered the world's most important waterway. about 180 ships are gridlocked along the canal. they're caring roughly $10 billion of oil and consumer goods. the securities and exchange commission reportedly has started an inquiry into the frenzy over spac's, special purpose acqu

lisa abramowicz and tom keene. a nice lift to the markets. futures up 1%. l-cap russell 2000 up 1%. lisa: last week seems to be an anomaly. that the message this morning ahead of the market opening. the question is will we see more volatility like we saw thursday. tom: on the vaccination, we go to science and it is good to go to someone with her original -- someone with original research. dr. lloyd minor did research on the inner ear and out johns hopkins and stanford where he is dean of medicine. how do we sell the part of america that is afraid of science, that are reticent to take the vaccine? what is your best practice for the politicians in washington? >> is good to be with you. i think the science does carry a lot of weight. it needs to be explained in ways that is meaningful and understandable to people and also how we behave as health care professionals in terms of our getting in line to get the vaccine when appropriate and communicating that these vaccines are safe and effective. among the most effective vaccines and safest vaccines we have seen for

alongside lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. tom keene away today.e's the price action in the equity market. the s&p 500 futures up 18. we advanced 0.4%. up 0.8% on the nasdaq. yields higher by almost a basis point on tens. euro-dollar back down to $1.1828. crude still positive, $59 handle, even with this back-and-forth with the suez canal over the last day or so. lisa: perhaps it is people coming in and reassessing this inflation trade. are we seeing a pause that is going to continue in terms of this rotation into cyclicals which includes oil which includes yields going higher, and banking stocks, or is this something that is a reassessment of the market? i think it's the key question for today and the entire week. jonathan: that is the debate of the moment as we drive you forward to the opening bell. let's drive you forward to washington, d.c. and the latest on the policy front. washington's -- kevin cirilli, bloomberg's chief washington correspondent, joins us now. why does this lineup so well with the approach of this current administration and t

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. equity futures up 36.about 1.4%. tom: we've got a lot of said talk -- a lot

lisa abramowicz is off today. we are discussing the forced liquidation

this is "bloomberg surveillance" alongside lisa abramowicz, and tom keim is back with us monday. --: tom keene's back with us monday. we advanced a third of 1%. in many ways, the president with his new price target. lisa: the idea here going forward, we have this optimism baked into markets. one thing that strikes me is how much we see the digital area stressing the fundamental infrastructure of our world. i feel like as we talk about reopening and the end of the pandemic, we have to rand -- reconcile what the digital world and just-in-time deliveries are doing to the reality of our physicality. jon: we will talk about that later, let's talk about where the money is going. from bank of america, the largest closing cash to ape -- since april of 2020. and the third largest inflow to tips ever. the latter point fuels what you are discussing right now. lisa: the idea here of inflation going forward, yes, we are getting a boost to the economy but could cause inflation. some people are saying there's friction, companies have to invest more in the physical infrastructure we are seeing shippi

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. the details coming later. tom: and into a booming economy, as we heard from ed hyman of evercore isi. s&p will do better in this american economy. jonathan: we are talking about one million payrolls on friday. france said to consider a national lockdown due to the covid spike. compare and contrast europe and the united states. there's the headline for all to see. tom: we saw from merkel yesterday for the day before. what is interesting is the bet on the street. at deutsche bank woman's ago, an expert on fx minces no word. he's optimistic on europe amidst this gloom. lisa: you really start to wonder at what point this divergence has legs beyond just this moment. this idea that europe is lagging behind the u.s., but people saying later on in the year, the pandemic will end. at what point does this lag time create frictions, create problems that create slower growth going forward, and that bifurcation only widens. jonathan: better data still to come, and out of europe, it is a struggle.

alongside lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. tom keene back on monday.n the nasdaq, up about 0.4%. the politics, the policy. eu summit a little bit later this afternoon, and president biden with a news conference. lisa: very much a focus on china-u.s. tensions, which appear to be rising after the confab in alaska. now we are having talks between the european union and the united states. really, the question you have raised, how much support will the u.s. and european union provide their companies to offset any negative ramifications from china's pushback to measures from the west? jonathan: we've got to talk about the relationship within the west, within the developed economies because that spat between europe and the u.k., there is a risk its bills over to the united states as well, over vaccinations. that is something i think was talked about coming into 2021, but not enough when it comes to the market. we go from synchronize growth to something more varied and broken down the net. it is not think were not on than that -- down then that. it is not sync

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro.ur adp report, let's turn to mike mckee. michael: america's going back to work, at least according to adp. the numbers have come in higher than they have in months and months. 517,000 people added to payrolls, according to the payroll processor. they account for private-sector jobs, so that is a little under the forecast for the nonfarm private payrolls report on friday, expected to rise by 638,000. the numbers don't often match up between the nonfarm private jobs and the adp, but the direction gives you an indication, and the magnitude certainly should give us some indication of how the news is going to play out. in terms of the categories, service providing jobs the big winner here. 437,000 additional jobs, 169 thousand of those in the leisure and hospitality space. obviously, with states reopening, restaurants opal -- restaurants able to have more guests, we are seeing people go back to work. these aren't jobs necessarily added to the economy, but jobs restored to the economy. small

. >> this is bloomberg with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: good morning.n jonathan ferro. -- i'm jonathan ferro. post pandemic highs going into that term and powell news conference. tom: his forecast adjusted by the fed, we are seeing it with market economics like -- it was a day ago deutsche bank and peter huber going up to 2.25%. by the end of the summer -- there is no summer in london, but summer happens soon in new york. jonathan: 2.25% at deutsche bank. yields are high going into this news, rents. the chairman -- this news conference. he has threatening 170. -- he is threatening 170. tom: how many times are we going to hear " transitory" today? jonathan: that is a drinking game for later. [laughter] jonathan: no real drama here yet. this is going to be the big issue for the federal reserve later. show me your forecast. now show me the doppler. lisa: this will be the key question in the bond market. my key question is how are bond in esther's lining up -- investors lining up? they are going against consensus where you have deutsche bank and j.p. morgan

officially in a recession. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowiczsome bond market stability. from new york city for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro. lisa will be back with us on

jonathan: tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. s&p down about three points.w york city, good morning braid cpi data 90 minutes away. ♪ it's moving day. and while her friends are doing the heavy lifting, jess is busy moving her xfinity internet and tv services. it only takes about a minute. wait, a minute? but what have you been doing for the last two hours? ...delegating? oh, good one. move your xfinity services without breaking a sweat. xfinity makes moving easy. go online to transfer your services in about a minute. get started today. (announcer) do you want to reduce stress? shed pounds? do you want to flatten your stomach? do all that in just 10 minutes a day with aerotrainer, the total body fitness solution that uses its revolutionary ergonomic design to help you maintain comfortable, correct form. that means better results in less time. and there are over 20 exercises to choose from. get gym results at home. no expensive machines, no expensive memberships. go to aerotrainer.com to get yours now. ♪ >> the $1.9 trillion u.s. stimulus, we think that will l

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz.onathan: there is a monster plan in washington. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on bloomberg tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. the price tag, $1.9 trillion. it goes to the house later. tom: we get voting at noon into the 1:00 p.m. hour. you wonder within this churn this morning, when do we pick it up again with rising gdp estimates? jonathan: morgan stanley's ellen zentner, who really kick this off, goes again, looking for a 7% handle. tom: jp morgan, goldman sachs also talking about the global effect of what nancy pelosi has brought. jonathan: lisa, what next? that is the question being asked in washington now. lisa: in other words, what other stimulus are they going to come out with? are they going to have an infrastructure plan? how long-lasting will the effects from this stimulus be? when we were coming into this year, people were talking about $1 trillion. no one was thin

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro.tures down 11 on the s&p, -0.3%. increasingly i feel like we are going to have this conversation around u.s. exceptionalism for a while now. tom: it is very

good morning, alongside tom keene lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro.at 174 and your equity market is taking another leg lower on the s&p 500. the nasdaq down 30. from new york city, current on bloomberg radio and seen on bloomberg television with yields higher and equities going much lower. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> a russian legislator is demanding that president biden apologize to let me putin, -- two president putin. saying this is a watershed in relations and unacceptable. president biden could meet with china's president jean jinping -- xi jingping. bloomberg has learned that beijing would like the summit to take place around earth day on april 22. the ideas to show that the two leaders can focus on combating climate change. oil is on his longest run in decline in over a year. this is the fifth day in a row and the concern that the demand for recovery could stall after several european countries halted the rollout of astrazeneca's vaccine. more fallout at credit suisse. the swiss bank has added the asset management had. credit suisse was first to su

chart right now, it is killing me to tell you that this is the pendulum of disinflation from lisa abramowicz is the 10 year versus the five-year guess on inflation. it is unprecedented and it screams transitory. lisa brought us to this two weeks ago. it was featured in fed coverage last night. abramowitz has absolutely nailed the transitory chart at the moment. jonathan: lisa has been on top of it for several weeks. tom: it is killing me, saying this. jonathan: it says perfectly, the view of the fact, the whole story that this market is pushing back against the federal reserve. things are very much in sync with what the fed is looking for the area lisa: what i struggle with is the path of disinflation. is it easy, is it gradual, do we have the big pocket inflation and a reset toward a low-inflation environment, or is this a more violent reset where we have zombie companies, some of the equity conditions that come off? these are important questions because it has to do with investment pieces over the long-term. when you talk about yields going at one person on the 10 year by the end of the ye

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. down 25 on the s&p.your economic data, here is michael mckee. michael: good morning. it is jobless claims day so we are keeping an eye out for the latest figures. they have had some disruptions in the market. we have seen jobless claims hold higher than they were expected to come and that is what we have again today. 770,000 initial jobless claims while last week, up from an unrevised 712. the forecast was for a drop to 700,000. we are not seeing any significant improvement in the claims picture. i give you my warning there is always a question about whether the jobless claims number itself is accurate. the thing we have to keep in mind is the level and direction. right now the level and direction remain bad. philadelphia fed business outlook comes in better-than-expected, double what was expected. 51.8 compared to 23.3. here is a number we want to keep a lookout for. i'm waiting for all of these numbers to breakthrough. the philadelphia fed prices received index is 31.8. last month it was 16.7. on any k

good morning, alongside lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro.look like this on the sn 500, we dipped lower by 14 points. this mild ash on the s&p 500, we -- on the s&p 500, we dipped lower by 14 points. lisa, into the bond market, 160.15. that conversation in d.c. on how to a for this is the question that comes up with -- they do what they always wanted to do regardless if we pay for it or not. lisa: they have to do it when we have record options. the notes will be indicative of the dynamic. how much does the increase of supply and up disrupting the borrowing cost we have enjoyed? how much does that factor into the narrative? jonathan: let's have everyone's least favorite conversation about taxes. we can do that now with jonathan traub of deloitte. is there any evidence that the corporate tax cut actually led to higher r&d spend? we are trying to understand if a corporate tax height will lead to lower r&d spend in america. jonathan traub: it is a hard question because there are so many is going on at the same time. there are changes in internati

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and tom keene. a simulcast, bloomberg radio, bloomberg television. i thought international women's day was wonderful yesterday. abby joseph cohen said it better than anyone, wipe away the gloom. up, up would go. jonathan: let's talk about the dominant call of the last month, from ellen's and her of morgan stanley -- from ellen zentner of morgan stanley, 6.5% growth for u.s. gdp in 2021. i think one of the most powerful things that could happen from the federal reserve tomorrow when they meet is upgrading those forecasts and keeping the dot plot most exactly where it is. tom: and michael mckee would say those forecasts really matter. what i think is important, from the oecd, it is not just about the united states. you can get that lift worldwide. jonathan: we see a plan downing d.c. -- to see a plan down in d.c. to make that much of a difference. the forecast for the u.s. is effectively doubled. does it really bleed over to

alongside lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. tom keene is off today. we advance zero point

alongside tom keene, lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. the s&p, up .2%.the bond market, yields at post pandemic highs during friday's session. right now, about 1.62. the euro-dollar, 1.19. for those of you might have been confused about 20 minutes ago about the techno-king, it comes from tesla. the do confirm that musk retains his position as ceo. elon musk will be called the techno-king of tesla. i feel like someone is being trolled. lisa: us. [laughter] tom: jon ferro, techno-king dancing in davos. let's get to it with kevin cirilli. china is in the news beneath the radar. a couple days, it will be front and center. there is a heritage goes back to world war ii. it dropped down by the japanese to pearl harbor long ago and far away. what is the symbolism of the secretary of state, secretary of defense going to anchorage to meet with the chinese? kevin: significant. it is the first meeting in terms of what the broader strategy will be for the united states in the next two to four years. it comes in a time where lawmakers in both parties on capitol hill ar

lisa abramowicz is off today. we are discussing the forced liquidation over at -- tom: another very careful derivative article as we are all learning about total return swaps, contracts, the way this is done in the hedge fund world, and once again, leverage fail. jonathan: how you can build a position in a company without needing to disclose that position because you don't need to know the underlying. we will discuss that any moment. but i just wanted to take a moment to do this. compare and contrast how this story is being covered this morning compared to gamestop, which led to all kinds of conversations about having meetings in d.c. and hearing to figure out exact a what happened and whether there is any systemic risk. after gamestop, were we discussing credit suisse down by 13%, 14%? were we talking about tomorrow -- about nomura? why is it when it comes to institutional investors, we have these sophisticate conversations about what went wrong, but when it comes to gamestop, we need to do something about it? to

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. nathan: some bond market stability. from new york city for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro. lisa will be back with us on monday. tom: i got to see a bounce on the screen, but to me, the immovable force was 31 on the vix, and now after a choppy week, we are only at 21.01, so that is at the compliment over the last couple of weeks. jonathan: the nasdaq up by about 0.6%. for this moment going forward, this is about growth expectations. the conversation through the week, others expectations peaking? did they peak with the federal reserve? are we there yet? tom: what we are going to hear from equity players, including our next guest, is the basic idea of what do you do with equity when you get the equity news out there. we are going to begin to seek guidance from corporations, and then indeed, we see q1 earnings announcements as well, and that is going to be a changed landscape. jonathan: