your interview with mary daly was a great one.cific questions, the idea of whether or not there could be a pause coming given the uncertainty of the markets. she was very clear in her response to you. >> there's a real disconnect between the markets and the fed over the past week or so. it has come and gone as the markets want to price in the fed backing off. they went to price in the idea of the fed cutting rates next year. mary daly was clear today, neither of the sins is going to happen. they going to raise rates to restrictive territory. they're going to leave them there until inflation shows signs of coming down. she said the amount of the raise is less important than how long we leave them there. >> i love how you talk about the markets. i have to ask you about the global picture when you're looking at the macro for example on rba earlier this week raising by 25 basis points shocking the market. the federal reserve is only going to be looking at what's right for the american economy. it to what extent do they have to pay att

. >> mary daly talking about the need to be resolute. we had john williams saying on monday -- saying it on monday. rafael bostic chimed in at the close of trade, saying he sees the funds rate going to 4.5% next year. he did not see a move to hike rates, then start immediately cutting them. they seem to be talking in one voice now. a very important thing to keep the markets on track i guess. >> we do have some breaking news, when it comes to the twitter deal, the financing of the deal, given that we have seen this about-face for elon musk, saying now the deal is back on track. he's going to go ahead and honor it after this piece offering and legal battles. apollo and six straight are not financing. this continues to really add a bit more caution and injury to where this -- intrigue as to where this goes from here. banks are reconsidering and potentially having regrets. obviously during bad economic times. we continue to watch the story. two parties, not in talks to finance or renew the twitter deal. let's get more on the broader market r

she is the president of the san francisco fed. >> great interview with mary daly.are about an hour into the u.s. trading session it's an ugly day. yields really jumping higher. abigail doolittle is tracking those moves. abigail: mike's interview may have influenced markets. they are at session lows after big two day rally. the best today since april of 2020 up almost 6% over that time period that is pressuring stock to the downside. oil popping back higher off of opec-plus did say they may cut by 2 billion barrels of -- 2 million barrels a day. yields higher. another pressure on stocks, morgan stanley saying a leading tell on the economy could really be under pressure. the stock itself is down 2.4% and you can see some of the significant chipmakers companies , those that make the equipment that make chips it's a real leading tell all to the downside , it could be a sign of what is ahead. big question about whether or not the fed is not going to be staying on its tightening path. this chart would suggest that probably is also true that the fed will continue tighteni

mary daly of the san francisco fed is making comments as well. says inflation getting to 2% in the next few years. the ecb has a single needle in his compass and that is inflation. how long will it take the ecb to get inflation back out the target? mario: we don't see any signs of de-anchoring. we see these indicators anchored around 2%. sometimes a little bit above, below but not far from 2%. that is quite reassuring. we need to see signs of core inflation going down which is not yet the case in europe. we also see in the medium-term, inflation going back up to 2%. we will produce an forecast in december of 2025, we will see what the numbers tell us but so far, in the latest numbers we have, we see in 2024, inflation very close to 2.3%. that is the way we expect inflation to behave. of course, this is a little disingenuous because it depends on the monetary stance we will continue in a strong way fighting inflation for sure. again, with this sense of gradualism that i mentioned before. alix: you brought it up, recession, when, what is the look l

haidi: mary daly, san francisco fed president speaking with bloomberg's michael mckee.nnie: opec-plus members agreed to cut total output by 2 million barrels a day in november to keep isis higher. outdated baselines mean actual cost will be lower. the white house slammed the decision and will release another 10 million barrels from the strategic oil reserves in november. the eu commission president says the market is intervening in the russian gas market on capital -- on capping -- intervening on gas prices. north korea fired two suspected short-range ballistic is on thursday, making a total of 10 lodges in fewer than two weeks, one of the biggest test barrages under leader kim jong on. it came after pyongyang condemned the biden administration for escalating tensions as the u.s. ronald reagan your cap carrier you turned in waters east of the korean peninsula. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪ kathleen: thank you, vonnie. up next, we have kni

kathleen: we spoke to mary daly in august.ea of the fed pushing rates up and ringing them down, no. rates are going up medical to stay up until we see inflation coming down sustainably. john williams, president of the new york fed, spoke yesterday. he said policy is not restricted yet, but it still has a ways to go. when you look at what the markets are pricing in, a couple of more aggressive rate hikes, looks like they are expecting 75 in november and 50 in december, then getting smaller and maybe even starting after the first quarter to reduce rates. but if you listen to mary daly, not likely come of the fed is not going to start reducing rates. it isn't enough for inflation to peak or for other central banks to do smaller rate hikes. they may slow down and do 25 basis point rate hikes next year , and then they will stop hiking. i don't know if it is going to be enough for the market bulls. we expect bond yields to come down, stocks rallying sounds like a possibility, but the fed for now is a long ways to go. haidi: we get t

tim bullard and mary daly come about how much higher rates should go and when the debates should startwhat do you make of this? diana: it's clearly two different points of view at the fed and the question is how they will come together in the coming months? what i'm seeing from the fed communication speeches as they will do another outsized rate hike, 75 basis points and reduce the pace of those rate hikes by december. but raising height -- raising rates by 50 points is high. monetary policy has tightened significantly in the past few months and as well as financial conditions generally tightening in the u.s. economy as well. all of these key what if hikes will have an impact to the u.s. economy more so in 23, so it makes complete sense for the fed to slow down the pace of hikes when the inflation data is pointing down. shery: what about to other countries like japan? we are not expecting the boj to do much in terms of policy but it is further pressuring the yen. diana: a lot of these economies are in a difficult position because of what is happening to the u.s. dollar and, in the shor

we will hear from mary daly and raphael bostic about hawkish nurse. on top of that we have an oil crisis. washington bristling with riyadh. north korea, the output. we have a move into silver and gold. david: safe haven some say when you look at that. we are getting more risk appetite these last hours or so. we started today essentially flat and you had korea up and running. that opened up and gained as much as 1% at one point. jakarta just coming online. we are seeing some green. a couple things to tell you about. u.s. dollar is pulling back. as with hong kong, keep in mind we are coming off quite a substantial catch-up yesterday of about 6%. about a thousand points on the hang seng index. the yield story, this is fairly consistent with the move up we had following the rbnz decision. up by double digits. up 11 on the short end. 10 year yield up 17 basis points. the pushback against this notion the fed might move lower for next year is a key question. yvonne: you have to wonder how many times are they going to get burned about the whole peak rates sto

. >> the short-term yields reacting to comment from the san francisco president mary daly who said sheould like the central bank to, quote, step down from the pace of rate increases what has been a series of 75 basis point hikes but added she isn't sure when that happens. this follows a "wall street journal" report that says some officials want to talk about slowing the pace of hikes, though they are expected to approve another large rate hike, three-quarters of a point in november here to discuss the future of rate hikes and the next move for them and yields in general is mark cabanna, head of u.s. rate strategy at bank of america. great to have you with us. what does your crystal ball tell you about the path of interest rates and bond yields? >> well, thank you very much for having myrick and as we have long argued we do think that the risks skew in the direction of the fed, hiking more aggressively and delivering more rate hikes, front loading, if you will as long as the data remains strong now, we've heard the comments from san francisco fed president mary daly will potentially ste

francine: we also heard from mary daly and rafael bostic. i'm surprised the market wants to believe so bad they are done with hikes, that they keep trying to price it in. then you have official after official say guys, we are fighting inflation. niall: after the gf see, there is a long period where the forward dot stayed at 4% a really long time and nobody believed it. now that is sitting at 2.5%, that means the fed is telling you they are going to move it there, but the market doesn't want to go there. there is clearly a desire to see peak fed. when you look at what's going on, people talk about the new normal, we are probably back to a old normal. the fed used to give you forward guidance, they won't anymore. the fed will react to data. francine: i don't want to push back too much, but if there is this longing in the markets even just looking at the current data, they have to be aggressive if they are going to go from the inflation number now to 2%. niall: 75 and 50 are built in, they are going to keep an eye on what is happening thereafte

mary daly saying they will keep going hard when it comes to rate hikes. tacky getting hit hard, yields up higher. it was already seeing a selloff in underperformance and then you've got that stronger ism and you find higher on the 10 year. bloomberg dollar index to get a full one percentage point, it feels like we are erasing a lot of what we saw in the last two days which feels like that was a rally in a bear market, not yet a regime shift. guy: may be. i think we seem to be kind of tracking in that direction but that was a definitive answer. the spotlight in some ways over the last few days, we have had what's only described as a disaster us conservative party conference in birmingham. it has not gone well. today, a liz truss, the new prime minister attempted to rally her party to a certain extent she's trying to rally voters as well and trying to get markets behind her. those two significant more difficult. she was in birmingham. it has been a brutal fortnight. she's only gotten into office in the economic turmoil around her has been huge. this is how

we heard from jim bullard, mary daly is how there needs to be debate about how much higher rates have to go and even considering is slowing down of the pace of rate hikes at some point although committing to the next rate hike. we are looking at treasury yields falling, needing to a surge in stock prices in the friday session. 10 year yield falling toward up 4.20 level. oil eking out a weekly gain. we still have concerns about global demand for oil prices in the asian session, still above $85 per barrel level. we are paying close attention to u.k. assets, the pound celebrating gains against the u.s. dollar after boris johnson pulled out of the race. really leaving exchange of a rishi sunak on the brink of becoming prime minister this as we have the ftse 250 slumping given the uncertainty about the race, a little more certainty and relieve when it comes to the u.k. bond space. 30 year guilt -- gilt surging weekly by a record this after the resignation of prime minister liz truss. watch the latest developments in the u.k. haidi: we are seeing perhaps signs of uncertainty when it comes t

lisa: that is basically what mary daly was saying.when people are seeing a punitive level of inflation that is hurting lower income brackets. jonathan: great fun, lisa. lisa: have a great one. jonathan: post-pandemic starts thursday afternoon. stick around. we'll yield a little later to -- really yield a little later too. lisa: i'm looking forward to hearing what marty walsh has to say. you have been parsing through the data, what have you discovered in terms of some of the nuances? mike: we looked at what happened with the unemployment rate, but the interesting thing is, we did see a seasonal effect in education. state and local education lost 21,000 jobs, which is going to be seasonal, because in september everybody comes in. they did not hire quite as many people as they thought. so we probably would have had a little bit bigger number, but we did have a big again in august, and maybe some of the school districts have moved their business to august, moved the start of school year to august. then retail sales, retailers gained only

when i think what mary daly said was is that really logical?rious about how much that sustainable bull market rally hinges on that rate cut? jess: she was talking about how your's confusion. some investors are confusing a pause with a pivot. even if the fed does pause, was a get a particular level, she was basically saying along with these other speakers that they could stay there for sometime and tell inflation does come down. you anything and a lot of wall street banks, the big question this year's will receive a come down as well as price targets. you see more banks joining goldman sachs, cutting her s&p 500 targets. we are also hearing from marco, one of the most vocal bulls on wall street, changing his eccentric. he still keeps his 4800 price target on the s&p 500 but he put his target at risk right now. that is interesting. we had not heard that. jon: since we have not seen, even with this year struggle for the s&p 500, we have not seen on average what has happened during the past bear markets, certainly recessionary bear markets, that id

mary daly. >> thank you so much. >>> still ahead, an investigation,n, rampant abusesf sexual misconductng report inclus a warning for girls in youth leagues. sally yates led the investigation. we have the details ahead. - [narrator] ery three minutes, a child is born with a cleft condition. without surgery, some will die. those who do survive face extreme challenges. operation smile works to heal children born with cleft conditions. we need you. there are still millions in dire need of healing. go to operationsmile.org today and become a monthly supporter, or call. (gentle music) the hiring process used to be the death of me. but with upwork... with upwork the hiring process is fast and flexible. behold... all that talent! ♪ this is how we work now ♪ ah, these bills are crazy. she has no idea she's sitting on a goldmine. well she doesn't know that if she owns a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more she can sell all or part of it to coventry for cash. even a term policy. even a term policy? even a term policy! find out if you're sitting on a goldmine. call coventry direct today at th

. >> speaking of the fed rates pass, san francisco's president mary daly spoke and said "what you see is a growth below trend in 2023. gdp growth below trend in -- policy tightening that raises and then holds because we have to keep the rates at a tightening level in order to fully reestablish price stability". let's dig into the commentary. the rbc capital markets chief is here. let us start praying and we have had a continued flood of commentary from fed officials. where did the commons land at the end of the day? >> i would say that for starters, it is a bout time. i have been traveling a ton recently as i am sure a lots of other people in the economics world have. there is so much they urgent opinion out there. people hold very different views. maybe more that i have seen as late. those who had the same exact view where the fed. everybody has an saying the same thing for weeks. they are all corralled into a hawkish camp. i think it is at long last that we are starting to hear fed officials break away from this idea, talking about the i dia of finally slowing things down and get to

i was interviewing mary daly yesterday. we talked about this.asting because at this point, the data is telling you that there are still a lot of openings, so people who are losing their jobs can get jobs. claims are going to be really slow to go up because companies at this point are not laying off people, they are just not filling new jobs. jonathon: when she looks at the totality, does she see the heat coming out of this labor market yet? michael: so far. we are seeing that in the job creation numbers. we will see a reasonable decline , not a terminus drop off, and that will to just companies are starting to cut back a little bit on their hiring that is what they want to see. they don't want to see the unpleasant rigo shooting up, but they don't think that's going to happen at this point. companies need workers. lisa: that was a really good interview, by the way. you ask her about what it would take her to cut rates. she really put coldwater on this theory that there are going to be great cuts next year. this is coming from someone who wants t

mary daly and raphael bostic will speak.ous about mary's speech she made about the punitive effects of inflation, particularly on lower income individuals. as we watch yield surge the highest levels in more than a decade, how much is this the necessary pain that they need to avoid the pain that they are seeing with lower income brackets with people releasing huge negative real wages? this comes as we get a series of negative economic surprises. this is good news but the market because people are saying, ok, than the central bank does not have to go as fast and as hard as they say they will, but to the point we were talking about, what does that mean about how quickly this economy is moving away from companies and earnings , from consumers and their ability to spend? not just policymakers. and how much they are committed to bringing down inflation. jonathan: thank you. 8:15 for the adp report later this morning. joining us is john stoltzfus, chief investment strategist to oppenheimer. let's talk about the price target area 48

mary daly sitting on a very high bar for relenting on the 75 basis hike. all signs point to a fourth straight meeting where they have 75 basis point hikes. dani: wonder about the ramifications of this. we have ecb minutes today from their september meeting. how does an aggressive fed feed into what we are expecting from the ecb? >> --michelle: it is certainly rattling. they have to take into account, the more sterling we face, the impact of the stronger dollar and all this fed to speak that the fed is projecting to keep those rate hikes up. paired with that is the growing recession risk. the european economy seems to be a bit worse off at this juncture. anything that worsens that growth aside while inflation is not improving in any of these places will kind of trigger some action and complicated decisions with central banks. dani: thank you, michelle. coming up on the program, more fed speakers or cold water in hopes of an early dovish pivot. we will talk to anita gupta from emirates nbd. this is bloomberg. ♪ and it's easier than ever to■ get your projects

adding to the concern that the fed is going to be pushing harder that seems to be the line from mary daly. she talked about how the cpi data was disappointing. in one area we're going to finish on a high. >> it has been a mixed bag this morning. the turnaround started to happen around 10:00 this morning. future expectations fell but the inflation picture higher on the five to 10 year and the one year. all of that contributing to a selloff in the equity market. the nasdaq getting hit the hardest. yields up by only three basis points. banks are reporting, that was a mixed bag and we had a huge rally that confused everybody yesterday. i have to point out again what is happening with the dollar-yen. we don't talk about it every day, it is approaching 149. we have not seen this level in 32 years. i don't see it getting any better. if the bank of japan has to do something different and sell treasuries to support its currency, then what happens to the 10 year? side note, back to the u.k.. >> we need to talk more about the u.s. data as well. the u.k. prime minister liz truss holding a press confe

mary daly says policymakers should start planning for smaller hikes of 25 or 50 basis points.sident -- chicago fed president charles evans says the fed will have to guard against overshooting on restrictive policy. south korea is pledging $45 billion to support credit markets under pressure from rising interest rates. the finance minister says korea will look to prevent a credit squeeze on corporate bonds and other short-term money markets. it is one of the biggest rounds of support for korean markets since the start of the pandemic. global news 24 hours a day, on-air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm paul allen. this is bloomberg. haslinda: still ahead, boris johnson says it wouldn't be right for him to divide the conservative party by running again for prime minister. that means the race is down to soon act. -- down to rishi sunak. a live update from london, next. haslinda: china and hong kong dragging down the rest of the region. the msci asia pac index pretty much lead the hang seng down by 40%, d

dani: san francisco fed president mary daly speaking about the strength of the u.s. labor market. she told cnn that the fomc must follow through with rate hikes. traders began to anticipate a slowing of fed tightening in u.s. equities then saw the best today rally in more than two years. perhaps adding a little bit of enthusiasm into this market. the italian paper finance milan saying volkswagen is eying a potential lamborghini ipo after a pretty successful porsche ipo. volkswagen looking at another potential ipo but this time of lamborghini. it's go back to the overall market story. joining us now is rupert thompson. the mood music in the past two days changing, but i wonder what you make of this pivot party that markets have been undergoing so far this week. >> i agree with all the commentators that this talk is overdone. the fed is not going to change direction any time. maybe rates do end up going slightly lower than the market expected a couple of weeks or days ago. pivoting any time soon i don't think is going to happen. none of the economic data, the isn came a bit weaker t

let's start with today, san francisco fed president mary daly speaking at 1:00 p.m., you got joe bidenent and vice president delivering remarks on the reproductive health care access, 3:30 p.m. eastern, you have a court hearing on whether alabama violated voting rights. tomorrow, what we have? alix: opec-plus meeting in person, this headline an hour ago as they look at 2 million barrels of oil a day cut according to delegates. the u.s. economic data is including services index, manufacturing's fell short so the service will be interesting as well heading into jobs friday. guy: there is one bigger event in all of this. we have been talking about this for months. [laughter] but it is finally happening. alix is getting a haircut. we talk about the pivot, this is dead. it is finally happening. the team are excited. alix: that graphic is amazing. we made fun of this because it has been five months, my roots are long i can ponytail my hair. guy: we are all very excited about this. alix: maybe of guys lucky i will stop complaining. guy: it picks up a lot of our meetings, the progression towar

new york's john williams, really important, dallas, cleveland's loretta mester, mary daly all due to speak. i wonder where the reaffirmation will come from across the fed speak. dani: and the jobs data really important as we look for cracks in the labor market. we will be speaking to the head of pinks bank research, they have been writing about why time have been writing about why time may be running out and it's easier than ever to■ get your projects done right. inside, outside, big or small, angi helps you find the right so for whatever you need done. with angi, you can connect with and see ratings and reviews. just search or scroll to see upf on hundreds of projects. and when you book and pay throug you're covered by our happiness it's easy to make your home an a check out angi.com today. angi... and done. >> i'm totally mystified, surprised that fed officials don't seem to acknowledge that just focusing on the fed funds rate as part of monetary tightening is a mistake. when you also have qt and a soaring dollar, these are very restrictive monetary developments. i think they will

mary daly was talking about this , too. they keep watching but do not seem scared. i am wondering when they get scared. >> with currencies, it is hard. the central bank does not have anything to do with the value of the dollar. the administration will decide whether it is gone too far one way or the other, but they have to live with the consequences. the consequences for the fed are good because we are exporting our inflation. it does make oil prices higher around the world, which contribute to the opec-plus situation, but at this point, the fed is not going to be too worried. it is helping the u.s. economy more than hurting it. alix: good roundtable to set us up. thank you. coming up, a conversation with kim forrest. her thoughts on the question of the day. how do you invest in companies like in delhi? this is bloomberg. >> markets are pricing in this goldilocks where some how we do not have a severe recession and inflation magically comes down. the reason markets are doing that is because it is what we got reeves to. we had many decades work central banks were abl

mary daly, if we have a softer job number tomorrow, that would be good news, people losing their jobs is good news, these are our central bankers, this is frustrating and worries the heck out of money. i have to talk about on my radio show and if we just get rid of them and go back to free markets, depend on the people of this country, the business of this country, not a few select people in washington dc that got 0 out of one hundred times. /100 times. stuart: getting rid of the fed is a big lift. i see where you're coming from. see you later. thanks a lot. i want to get back to politics with a lot of issues there. squad number cory. is touting democrats momentum ahead of the midterm. listen to this. >> i'm optimistic. i believe we will hold the house, we are seeing the momentum especially as we get closer to november we are seeing the momentum really pickup and people that say i don't share your views in other areas but i don't want my right to abortion restricted. that is a huge driver. stuart: it seems congresswoman cory bush believes abortion is a much bigger issues and everythin

the only person that's, but i can recall as mary daly has started to soft and the rhetoric a little bitich is a bit different than having jay powell soft and the rhetoric. which created that sort of temporary pivot trade. what is most interesting to me is what is occurring with the balance rate. raising rates disincentivizes future lending and future borrowing, adds to the money supply. when you're talking about these assets, which off of the balance sheet, that liquidity is taken out of circulation immediately. so when you theory about the fed is that this is a controlled burn. they are going to keep going until they break something, because they have to actually find out where that threshold of liquidity exists, and they are not going to be able to do that until they see a meaningful crack. and i do think that they have their pivot plans. obviously the pivot during covid was historical. and they know they can pivot things very quickly. my new theory is the controlled burn theory. kathleen: but that theory could write investors along the way, we have seen a couple of instances of liqui

david: san francisco fed president mary daly, talking about all the things the market is trying to digest european futures are down. that gives you an idea of how far this rally can extend. that depends on how long this notion of a pipit actually -- notion of a cave it -- notion of a pivot actually lasts. ralph? ralph: i am happy to talk about the pivot. david: what do you think of the nose? ralph -- of the news? ralph: pivot means different things to different people. is it when they pause? is it when they cut? this week for the fed, we are in the camp at the moment that it is a long ways away in terms of when they are going to see -- when we are going to see them pause. we don't think it is until after the march meeting. we have the fed funds rate going all the way to 5% by march. i think the fed come of risk with the fed giving heat to the pivot -- and we saw this with the rba yesterday -- is that the markets are itching for that pivot and it could ease financial conditions so much that it would unwind all the tightening the fed is doing. so, i think they are going to be talking tough

would react he is not advocating for a quic turn bostic's comments follow those by san francisco fed mary dalyate hikes are needed and discussing the policy pivot in 2023. >>> louisiana will pull $800 million from blackrock funds they are making the move over the asset management firm push to embrace esg strategy. this wouldcripple the energy sector in louisiana. the state has pulled $560 million from blackrock which faced pressure over its esg policies from republican led states and group. >>> the biden administration is looking to ease sanctions on venezuela to allow to start pumping oil from the country according to the wall street journal, the move would reopen u.s. and european markets to oil exports from venezuela putting new crude on to the market the journal adds the deal would require president maduro's government to allow free and fair elections in 2024 there are no sanction policies planned from the maduro regime >> thank you, silvana henao. >>> turning attention to our top story. investors still looking into the decision of opec to slash output by 2 million barrels a day the move i

before the open fed speak from john williams at 9:10 a.m and we have charles evans at 9:40 and then mary dalyhe chinese communist party national congress continues as well through tomorrow. >>> let's get ahead of the trading day. futures are suggesting a lower open dow jones industrial average down 154 points. nasdaq lower by 105. s&p off by 24 points that's the pre-market action joining me is john stoltzfus john, good to have you on. i see you are less bullish on the stock market you revised down the s&p 500 target tell us why? >> seema, thanks for having me on the show. i have to say we are running out of time until the end of the year the 4800 target was too rich from here moving through the elections and into december 31st we reduced it down to 4000 from 4800 with the expectations of the last friday close with a volatile week through the end of the year we think there will able 10% to 12% upside >> high inflation and earnings what is the main reason you are bringing the forecast down what makes you more cautious >> i think we remain bullish on equities we think where we are right now, the

san francisco fed president mary daly said the central bank should plan for stepping down.rlier this month, loretta mester said more aggressive hikes are needed that debate around the dovish fed pivot is rearing its head once again. >>> u.s. tech giants are set to report this week alphabet and microsoft will release results for third quarter with cloud growth and advertising in focus meta will follow with the earnings on wednesday and apple and amazon will close off the week on thursday now all of these tech earnings come after a dire profit warning from spotify excuse me. snap snap with huge pressures on ad revenue. this is something that investors will watch closely also costs focus on costs and if the tech giant will focus more to cut costs as we enter a more difficult economic environment all of this to play for u.s. futures at the moment. we have red across the board dow jones industrial average looking to pull back 100 nasdaq and s&p pulling back modestly all of this after extremely strong finish last week. s&p rallying 2.4% on friday. driven by the materials sector s

we have mary daly saying she is seeing end up tightening in the economy working its way through.dgment, however, or is needed for restrictive territory. we will be watching our conversation, but coming up next we have the former u.k. ambassador to the u.s. joining "balance of power" with david westin on bloomberg television and radio. guy: giorgia meloni speaking right now. that is the new italian prime minister, the first female italian prime minister. we await news on exactly who will be the finance minister of italy. that is a crucial part of the mix. i am off to bloomberg radio. i'm going to be joan -- to be joined by marcus at work. have a great weekend, everybody. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪♪ this... is the planning effect. this is how it feels to know you have a wealth plan that covers everything that's important to you. this is what it's like to have a dedicated fidelity advisor looking at your full financial picture. making sure you have the right balance of risk and reward. and helping you plan for future generations. this is "the planning effect" from fidelity. announcer: f

this narrative we keep hearing, mary daly today, saying again, that they are going to stick with it and continue to raise rates. i'm not arguing that they shouldn't. i just think it's a question of pace and that's what the market is terrified of just as they pated too long in the past, now they're going too quickly, seeing that data come through. >> yeah. one of the analysts that we speak to repeatedly on fed day said his worry was that the fed was going to start too late, hang on too long and go too far. it feels like an awful lot of people feel that way that they started too late, that they may raise too much and stay there too long >> i think that's right. i just attended a piece of our clients called monetary policy in the rear view that's what will we have we have a group of individuals that are looking at data efforts that have come out and not anticipating which direction we're moving in. so that would be a coincidence, or consistent with what your other analysts have said, which is they are going to go too long or too hard and that's the fear. >> yeah. >> so, to that end, i thin

mary daly at 1:00 p.m. yesterday we saw the biggest one-day decline in 10 year treasury real yield since march of 2020. it was a complete reset because people are not buying. officials say they still need to raise rates considerably. once the data -- watch the data, looking for support of loosening up the labor market which we have not really seen. the last time i got job opening data, we actually son increase, and a decrease. there are questions about whether the labor market has fundamentally changed and employers are going to hold onto their workers for longer. -- ahead of a european central bank meeting over the next few days, how they address this belief in a pivot. they can come out and say we still have a way to go and we will keep raising rates and by the way, we do believe a recession is more likely. part of what is giving people confidence in this pivot story because it is recognizing reality and they are not weighing the political ramifications of hiking more dramatically. jonathan: the only grou

i will dutifully report what i think the market thinks happened is san francisco fed president, mary daly, who we know to be a little bit more on the dovish side in the context that everybody on the fed right now wants to hike rates and has supported them hiking them very fast and aggressively. that said, daly comes forward and says, probably do 75 at the upcoming meeting, but after that, we'll think about what it is we're going to do, the possibility that we could go slower i didn't hear her suggest a much lower funds rate she said, we really need to think about what happens next. so i'm not hearing a whole lot of really barn burning news, but, again, that's what the market heard and what they heard resulted in the funds rate, if you take a look at where we were for the peak rate on that may contract, we were at 503 this morning, which sort of reflected a lot of hawkish news that was out there. and then it went down, i guess it's 490 now, what does that say 488? we lost about 12 basis points. so still seeing an aggressive fed, just maybe one that gets there a little more slowly maybe, do

hikes are warranted starting in december this meshes with comments from san francisco fed president mary daly that the fed saying a slower pace of hikes should be considered jeff, it's great to have you with so much fast-moving action and expectations in the bond market here. did today's, i guess, the hints that the fed is looking, perhaps, for an opportunity to slow things down change the picture much at all? it seems like it's in sync with what they told us in september but maybe the market had moved ahead of it. >> i don't think there's anything new there we were discussing this across the desk today and this is about inflation buying this is a week we didn't get new inflation data but next week we do again every week is something we're getting here the comments are consistent with what the fed has been telling us they're telling us that they're going to hike, they're following what the market has priced in and the market has another 175 basis points priced into the next meeting doesn't seem like they're slowing down much. all those being conveyed there, we're probably not going to do a bu

going po watch their gas get more expensive, the president of the san francisco federal reserve mary daly told me this just a few days ago. listen. >> we need to recognize is that people are already are suffering. they're suffering from the toll, the indignity of high inflation. they earn their living and go to the store and they can't afford the things they could afford last month. >> what do you say to americans right now, secretary walsh, who at this point may be losing confidence that the biden administration can make this economy work for them when three out of four americans say the economy is either not so good or poor. >> well certainly when it comes to energy and what we're dealing with gas, i mean, that certainly was not created by this administration. we're dealing with a war in ukraine that you guys report on every day which is very sad. you're talking about decisions opec has made. which is very disappointing as well. and i think what it does is for too long america has been too dependent on foreign energy and think that the president has made it very clear in the inflation r

see that loretta mester of the cleveland fed tends to be on the hawkish side and you can see that mary dalythe san francisco fed, among others, charlie evans who goes off the committee soon, are people who might be more to wait i think the people to really watch are lael brainerd, the vice chair, and the two new appointees to the board of governors, phil jefferson and lisa cook. we know that in general, lael brainerd has tended to be on the dovish side. of course, like all the fed members -- the fmoc members, they're hawkish on inflation it's become the priority but i would n't be surprised to see her quietly separate from the chairman and we don't know much about what lisa cook and phil jefferson think about monetary policy they're new to the board and have been basically reciting party line so i can see like in january, february, march next year, some of the biden appointees may begin to get a little antsy about the pace of rate increases. >> very interesting. david. no one can take us in the room quite the way you can. thanks so much >> you're welcome. >> david wessel with the brookings

>> so what has happened is a lot of the daly balance, d-a-l-y, mary daly, we are looking at 4.93 at the peak fund rate andrew, you are right with 5.5% fund rate. i think the market has built in a zero the question is is it a negative one? we had somebody on yesterday that says it does matter roger ferguson talking about zero is different from minus 1 that is a more serious recession. zero would be maybe getting off cheap. >> steve, does this mean the gdp number this week is something we should blow past and not pay attention to because it is not the story of what is happening on the ground right now? >> i think the third quarter is in the bag we want to pay attention because i want to see how we get to the number of 2.4 which is forecast. right now, the going ahead and outlook is for growth to have and get to zero. i would not be a buyer of the idea that we're off to the races again and we put that weak first half behind us. >> steve liesman rapid update we'll see. we will see what the fed does. i appreciate it. >>> coming up when we return, we take you live to the controversial investm

washington, mary mcleod bethune should stop in the little town of south carolina and they told me how much he was going to cost to do that, i remember the conversation that i had with bill daly. [laughs] i said, bill daily, i want to talk to you rosenblum and he and wells fargo underwrote the cost of bringing her back to south carolina. [applause] and her great niece is here somewhere. where is she? mary mcleod bethune's me was at the unveiling. they did not know about this. they are probably running around the building trying to find this auditorium. she is now the mayor. she and her husband are here. this is the kind of thing that makes me enjoy history so much. i will close with this, i was asked a couple of days ago what it was like, because it was announced last week that the and aa cpp -- it's going to be awarded the next wednesday night to yours truly. [applause] >> thank you. >> that was first given in 1915, the first recipient of that award was bernie -- [applause] who was one of the founders of omega sci-fi fraternity. i might add, a native of charleston, south carolina who first went to school away from home in south carolina state but it was right out of high sch