mike santoli starts us off tonight. >> en with aew year's eve rally, the most volatile december i more than a decade left investors with losses f y thr and confusion on global growth, trade elicy. don'tect the new year to bring much of a break from the gh-stakes market movin event. friday brings a crucial u.s. jobs report that will off hint about whether a feared u.s. slowdown is under way. jay powell will speak publicly with hisredecessors and any clues on his intention for further rate hikes in 2019 will be seized upon by investors. a fear that the fed has pushed rates up already too much given a softer global economy has been a major factor, tumble of s&p 500 fromts september high. focused on very strong trends as it pencils in perhaps two more lrcreases next year but the bond market hasdy priced out the likelihood of any further hikes. formal talks between the u.s. and china begin on potential trade further rounds by a march 1st deadline. fear of trade disruptions and chinese economic stumble have been another driver of recent market weakness. at one point last week nearly dropped

for "nightly business report," i'm mike santoli. >>> time for a look at some of today's upgrades and downgrades. we begin with brazil januayabra company which was downgraded from buy to eyhold. cited the deadly collapse of the company's dams over the weekend. e cause of that is still unclear. price target is now$14 and shares fell 18% to $11.20. >>> amgen was downgraded at evercore isi. the analyst cited patt ncerns and increasing competition for certain drugs. the company reports earnings eomorrow, by the way. shares fell mhan 3% to $191.95. >>> grubhub was upgraded to outperform from neutral at credit suisse. the analyst cited the company's aggressive investments in its delivery network and newnt restauhain partnerships. price target now $130. it's about 60% above of where it closed toesy. shar rose a fraction to $80.99. >>> and credit we ssuisse also upgraded wayfair from outperform to neutral. they cited the blueprint for growth domestically and overseas. that price target is $130. that stock rose 2% to $104.47. >> still ahead, tax tips for the first filing season under >>> the j

for r "nightly busineort" i'm mike santoli. >>> certainly apple's rar earnings warning has left many wondering how bad it gets this earnings reporting season. and who could be next if any? the ceo of asset management company joins us at the stock exchange tonight happy new year. >> happy new year. >> do you sense if this is a specific problem tos apple or this a broader issue that other companies suffer from as well. >> remember, this is a bad movie second time around. in october when they did this it was the first sign that really the market was anchanging. it did. we sold off since then. then we got to the moment of capitulation at the end of the year and thought maybe okay. and apple does it again. for me this is still an apple issue. because there are two things going on. first they're transforming as a company going from a manecacture ofology to a company that's service oriented that's a slow painful transition. secondly the tariff issue attacking the cost of goods and impacting revenue specifically in china. >> and other companies which o we heard about le caterpillar or boeing

for ightly business report, " i'm mike santoli. >>> so what is next for stocks? joining us is art hogan, the chief marke strategist at national securities. we have to start -- of course everybody will be telling stories about jack bogel the next several days as we remember y of walnt not o street but of just life in general. any memories you have? >> i just remember that one time i got to talk to jack bogel. one of the things i remember in theai conversation when he that the stock market is a great distraction to the business of investing. i've alw ts takent to heart. he was the first person that really got arouno people to say you need to get rid of some of that noise and think about th tlong term and buy and the hold. he did more for individual investors than i think a m this ever lived. very sad day to see him go. but it's amazing how much he changed our industry over the 50 years that he was in so. >> tely. aur, you've changed your targets a litt bit for this market because of three main events or utadlines that have been there, and one of them is the governm

for that expectations matter that's why i think next month it will get a lot of attention. >> mike santolihed job but he didn't have the same first-time zest as yours, morgan. >> he didn't curtsy. >> up next, the names to watch on the earnings calendar minimums and fees. they seem to be the very foundation of your typical bank. capital one is anything but typical. that's why we designed capital one cafes. you can get savings and checking accounts with no fees or minimums. and one of america's best savings rates. to top it off, you can open one from anywhere in 5 minutes. this isn't a typical bank. this is banking reimagined. what's in your wallet? ♪ ♪ move to the enterprise-grade cloud that's built to handle all your apps. ♪ ♪ the ibm cloud. the cloud for smarter business. >>> welcome back facebook reports tomorrow afternoon. what should we expect? julia boorstin has a preview for us hey, julia. >> well, when facebook reports earnings, we'll see whether advertisers and consumers continue to shrugoff negative headlines about the company. revenue growth is projected to slow to 26% to $16.4 b

with us now for more, mike and mike michael nathanson, and senior markets commentator mike santoli.ood morning, guys michael nathanson, first, what to look out for with advertising driven names we have been talking so much about china, but these names have little china exposure is it all up side or are there potential points of concern? >> i think this is a proxy for global growth ex-china europe is a big component of digital advertising. the uk is a big component. what i am worrying about is slow down in uk retail sales that filters down to online advertising. germany, italy, france what i am picking up is that outside the u.s., some of the more stable western european markets may have slowed down as fourth quarter played out. so it is not a china issue, it is western european markets, consumer spending is slowing. >> i am surprised you're not bullish on facebook, given how far it has been in recent months >> we downgraded facebook over the summer we looked at it, said facebook is a terrible setup where you have revenues decel rating 25, 26%, expenses up to 53%. operating profits,

let's bring in commentator mike santoli. another few hundred point swing. but the news pileup today has been concerning. >> it has. so the market had to absorb a lot of very negative front and center news about things the market is worried about for months it is a kind of confirmation of some negatives that we have been fixated on not to make too much of the bounce off lows, but the market is trying for the second day in a row to take one of the morning losses and grind higher. there's more stocks up than down, banks are outperforming. you have to watch it we have huge financial news day tomorrow with powell i think the market wants to be in a neutral zone before that happens. i agree. you've got this theme of weakening global demand, flattening curve, and risk to earnings estimates are running throughout the s&p 500 in the broader markets. the big push/pull is we have come down 15% in the s&p, 30% in apple before yesterday, you have confirmation of numbers coming down apple had more to go down, 10%, whatever it is does the rest of the market have to go dow

mike santoli with a look at the trend.y long term trend tells us it's something to watch. we were talking about the potential psychological effects of the news, shutdown, things like that. that is very long term scale of the consumer sentiment indegs from the university of michigan and the precipitous drops ahead of a recession the shaded areas are a recession. this is into 2008 so 2008 to 2001 recession and before that in around 1989, 1990 we haven't seen anything like that right now it's a jagged trend. another thing to keep in mind is look at how low we were for about half of the whole expansion. very, very stubborn of the mood getting better despite the numbers showing us coming out of it so, this high to low drop is a ten-point or 11-point drop it's pretty significant but it would have to be followed by a few more to say there's something underlying in the economy with jobs or something tangible to get too worried about it. >> and has to fall a long way to get worried about it and hard to read from here, how long from

the young ones most of all they always get so excited when they see everything is very magical mike santoli. it represents childhood love a family basically a carefree place where you can forget your problems. so it's not it's a real change you get to see disney films in real life and very pretty. when the sun goes down the show begins with the spectacular fireworks disney is so famous for as cinderella's castle turns into a gigantic backdrop for the characters from the lion king. lives. in a league. play. play. now astronomy architecture history and art these are some of the elements that most people take into consideration when choose. and then next travel destination and the place that we're about to visit has them all the city of then in france is the capital of the region of brittany located in the northwest of the country and the old town boasts countless historical landmarks such as fifteenth century half timbered buildings and the song cathedral at the same time it's a young vibrant city with a lot of student population let's see how the two combine. then a city with over two thousa

mike santoli joins us on what this bounce back means for stock valuations mike >> yes, morgan particularly is the equity risk premium. a measure of equity risk the earnings yield of stocks compared to the treasury yield the 10-year treasury yield when this is high, stocks are relatively compared to treasuries and you see back here this was around the early 2016 lows stocks did look cheap and performed very well from these levels when were they expensive last year. obviously stocks did struggle to get returns from there there's no particular magic to the absolute number. it changes over time as a matter of fact, this reading would not have looked expensive in the '90s. we spiked up for just a moment to what seems like a very cheap level of relative valuations for stocks to favor buying stocks over bonds and come right back down to neutral and morgan stanley strategists saying this is not an edge to say priced in good news or a valuation cushion underneath of equities but it's worth watching because you really don't have too many measures of exactly how the asset allocation decisions might b

i'm sara eisen wilfred frost will rejoin me with mike santoli.y on wall street. it was an up day first time we have seen that in three sessions the dow with gains of 151 points s&p 500 having a nice 1% rally nasdaq fueled by netflix and up 1.7% russell 2000 up. health care services rallied almost 2%. technology up 1.5% utilities also gained. british prime minister may suffering a historic defeat. we'll discuss what's next for brexit and the markets coming up. >>> but first, hirl's tere's th stories on the radar stocks finishing up. jpmorgan and wells fargo latest to report weaker than expected fourth quarter revenues and netflix rallying after announcing a big price hike. we'll hit all of those stories joining us to talk about it, michael blockman this glass is halfful with brexit, some misses in the bank reports and managing to rally. >> we're almost exactly half full relative to what was lost in the three months. i noticed on the close we are up 11.2% from the lows three weeks ago and down still 11.2% from the all-time highs in september. what'

overheating. >> all right sheila, thank you. >> thank you >> and mike santoli, see you tomorrow >> probably. >> thanks, phil belo where are you? >> is it cold? what kind of a question is that? i took my dogs out this morning and they looked at me like, are you nuts would you go to the bathroom in that weather >> you didn't notice yeah you had to go in, right? when you stepped out, describe it to us when it hit you what was it like >> everything's crunchy. super cold snow. everything's crunchy you don't want to be out more than a minute or so. >> you can get frostbite in like -- >> five minutes. >> within a couple of minutes, supposedly, if you're not well prepared for going out there but you got to be ready, joe >> you're hearty you're just a hearty -- you're from -- well, we know he's from chicago. okay real good. thanks, phil >> thanks, guys. >>> when we come back, corporate headlines this morning later senator rob portman will join us to discuss the shutdown, trade, the wall, and a lot more. look at the futures. dow looks like it would open up 264 points sthast 225 from apple alone? >> a

it really does speak to the optimism mike santoli was just saying at the ending of last hour the optimism was abound at davos last year. it's not like to be this year. >> the optimism is as excessive as the pessimism was in late december >> is it >> i think so. the further we go up, does that make it more vulnerable? >> you tell us. >> i would argue -- we talked rsis last night, carter, you know i love your rsis. there's no question a market that moved 13% in 17 sessions has obviously got a lot of enthusiasm and momentum behind it i will also say if you look at where people are sentimentwise, ai, bull/bear readings or positioning in the sports, if you look at the spy, the spider, the shortcoming has not been -- >> can i ask a question here >> it's your show. >> would any of you feel better if the move of 13% off of highs, 12%, whichever stock or sector you're going to cite was made over a period of two or three months versus a period of four weeks? >> i would i'd absolutely feel better about it just a slow trough to the upside. >> but given the sharpness of the downturn, imean does it mak

i'm sara eisen here with david faber, mike santoli live at post nine from the new york stock exchangend stocks are down across the board more than 1%. off the lows, but the dow is still down almost 300 points nasdaq down 1.3% starting tomorrow microsoft, facebook, amazon, all sectors lower in the s&p led by technology, digesting some weak earnings from caterpillar and a guidance cut from nvidia. >> yeah, although nvidia off its lows as we said earlier. the government temporarily reopening. i guess that's what we call it we're temporarily reopening for three weeks as congress and the white house work to come up with a deal to avoid another shutdown meanwhile, new numbers from the cbo show that the estimated economic toll of the shutdown nearing $11 billion. could even be more with us now for their take, austan goolsbee, former chairman of the economics council and james pethokoukis and cnbc contributor. 11 billion on a $19.5 trillion economy tonight sound like too much the maybe we should do it again. >> that's the mechanical view of what's impacted the shutdown, and it basically goes,

i'm joe kernen along with becky quick and mike santoli andrew is off.o something with that. you know, it's a better ball >> they improved it. they put more crystals with it >> i know. but it's fine. >> it's called keeping up with the joneses. did you see every other celebration around the world they go all out. >> it's a branding opportunity really what that show is is branding >> waterford crystals. >> we have an early market selloff happening at this hour sea of red across the globe like the same way that new year's develops over in asia to europe dropping sharply most places this morning oil also under pressure. prices tumbling on economic slowdown worries almost a percentage loss in wti. and u.s. equity futures, 370 that's where we've seen them on the dow this morning the s&p down 38. nasdaq down about 150. >>> some weak china data also dragging markets lower a private sector survey showing that the manufacturing data contradicted f ee eed -- contrad 3. >> good morning. it's a new year but really more of the same when it comes to market moves it fee

i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and mike santoli. andrew is off this week.e have big news out of china this morning the futures this morning, you can see the dow is indicated up by 290 points. this comes after decline of 660 points yesterday that was down by 2.8%. the s&p was down by close to 2.5% then it was the nasdaq that got hit hard it was down by 202 points, a decline of 3%. worst daily performance since december 7th of last year, when it was down by just more than that the nasdaq is bouncing back this morning. the news out of china, the united states and china will hold trade talks in beijing. on january 7th and 8th china's commerce ministry making thatnnouncement today. and over an hour ago, the pboc saying they will cut reserve requirements by 100 basis points as the government looks to counter risks of a sharper slowdown yesterday we spoke with michelle caruso-cabrera who talked about the shadow banking the crackdown there and the impact that's been having. this may be one way to get some liquidity back in the market >> the peoples bank of china tr

mike santoli, thank you very much. >>> up next, former new mexico governor and u.n.ll richardson will be here to tell us whether he thinks china and the u.s. will be able to reach a trade deal tc> and a representative at fih will explain why the u.s.'s aaa rating is in danger [knocking] ♪ ♪ memories. what we deliver by delivering. when it might be time to buy or sell? with fidelity's real-time analytics, you'll get clear, actionable alerts about potential investment opportunities in real time. fidelity. open an account today. >>> welcome back time for a cnbc news update with sue herera hey, sue. >> hey hi, wilf. senator lindsey graham, incoming chairman of the senate judiciary committee says barr has confidence in special counsel robert mueller. >> it is a high opinion of mr. mueller, believes that mr. mueller is doing a professional job and will do a professional job, be fair to the country as a whole and has no reason for mr. mueller to stop doing his job and will allow mr. mueller to finish. >> a court has denied carlos ghosn to be released from detention. he is u

also, mike santoli is here it's 4:00. >> i am here. >> ten past 4:00 little late on the intro >> mike us a sense of how much of the news today was related to those two warnings of chinese demand from invidia and caterpillar? >> a lot of it but the market as a whole absorbed it as you might expect we have a pattern taking hold in the last couple of weeks of the market throughout the day kind of firnls up and it happened again today. we were down more than 400 in the dow. bank stocks up today it just had the same feel of, fine, we have to mete out the punishment and the adjacent stocks and didn't spill into something broader. for now it still seems like the market is doing better than one might expect after a 13% ramp in 4 weeks. >> joyce, how much is the chinese economy slowing and how much is easily improved if the trade deal is done >> we have chinese growth down from 6.6% last year. it is a slowdown we think the trade deal makes some difference and the chinese economy is slowing and even though there's stimulus, it's not the shock and awe stimulus of china in the past the market is

. >> mike santoli also with us a lot of iq added to the desk.re expectations set in the right place? >> i think expectations on paper are downgraded enough to where you would think the bar is lower. as bob was saying. from october 1st, cut four percentage points off expected growth for the coming quarter, right? the market is down more than that you have compressed and multiple i think it creates less sell the news response when the companies miss beat. first quarter expectations don't have a lot of room to go down. first quarter is supposed to be weak of the four i think we're in a decent zone for the market deciding if it wants to look on the bright side i don't think the 10% bounce in market is about earnings people are hopeful earnings come in positive, but it is about reversing that steep oversold condition. >> the overshoot is important. it is important to remind everybody that the market tends to track earnings. seems obvious, people forget that all of the macro stuff feeds into the earnings. it is not like the macro doesn't matter, of co

let's bring in nancy tangler and mike santoli guys, good morning nancy, i have a lot of questions overast few weeks about whether tech was going to continue to be a leader in this market a lot of people saying no, it doesn't need to be what's the read through on the netflix surge today and even facebook, rhetorlet alone amazod alphabet following them behind. >> thanks for having me again. listen, i think technology has to be an important component of the market to power forward and because we're seeing growth in technology, that is not hard for me to support as a portfolio manager. i would also say there's a lot to be said for tax law selling now we're on the other side of that, people are going back in and buying stocks they sold. that's the day to day practicality of what we have to do as portfolio managers at year end. so i like what i'm seeing, i like the potential price earnings to growth trade off in the stocks, and we're still overweight technology with commitments not to netflix but to foog agoogle, facebook, appl, microsoft. >> mike, you noted the s&p is up against some levels

cnbc live from the nasdaq market site in times square i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and mike santoliew is off today. our top story is the global market selloff futures this morning pointing to a sharply lower open so happy new year, clean slate, here we go again dow futures are indicated down by over 400 points s&p futures down by 42 points. the nasdaq is down by 161 points the big catalyst overnight, weak economic data out of china a private survey on the manufacturing sector showing factory activity contracted in december that's the first time that's happened in 19 months. the downturn in china comes amid the u.s./china trade fight th

i'm sara eisen wilfred joining me in a moment with mike santoli.inished the day on wall street. up across the board. the dow closing higher 162 points or .6% and officially out of correction territory. meaning, the dow is now only off about 9.5% from recent highs hit last year. s&p 500 up .75%. all groups ending higher materials, industrials leading the charge communication services is the loser by all of them green nasdaq composite up. the russell 2000 index doing better than the rest again that's a constant theme. earnings from netflix and american express any minute now and bringing it to you when it happens. ed loo with us for the results but first, there he is, at his computer ready let's get to the latest on the story that moved the markets late in the session. eam eamon javers with more >> reporter: "the wall street journal report"ing this afternoon that in discussions secretary mnuchin proposed the idea of ratcheting back tariffs on the chinese ahead of the march 1st deadline the white house is responding in various ways in the afternoon on

i'm david faber with morgan brennan and mike santoli we're at post 9.a has the morning off let's give you a look at the markets. a mixed bag. the s&p is up, but the nasdaq and the dow both lower actually, the dow, sorry, that is up as well. awaiting apple earnings after the bell which is putting up a good performance so far in the first half hour of trading up about 1% we've got some economic data crossing the tape. want to get to rick santelli for that rick >> yes, david. we're looking for our january read on consumer confidence from the conference board expecting a number around 124. it's a disappointment. 120.2. 120.2. definitely a miss. and last month's 128.1 moves down to 126.6. when was the last time we were at these levels? well, actually it was july in july of 2017 we were at 120 even july of 2017 so this definitely is a marked turn lower but do keep in mind these are still pretty lofty levels. still well above where we were heading on these numbers before the credit crisis hit in '03, '04, '05, '06, '07 weren't at these levels but significantly

i'm sara eisen >> and i'm mike santoli. let's go right to the markets. >> on the first trading day of the year, dow at one point down 398 points at the low. but flipped positive about two different times during the session. and is now weaker again. a lot of chatter around president trump speaking does that have anything to do with -- >> it seemed like the market kind of lost a little altitude during that, but made up for the losses coming into the day with the global markets on their heels. seems like there is money out there to be put to work because we were so oversold coming into the year, but unclear if people will be -- >> the glitch of december. the 9% drop he called a glitch >> and coming up, we'll look at global indices and where investors should look to buy and plus the government shutdown enters its 12th day. how long it could last and why the housing market is getting hit as a result. that is all still to come. >> but let's begin today with our reporters watching seema mody, over to you >> yeah, if today is any i

i'm becky quick along with andrew ross sorkin and mike santoli.fair value s&p futures up by ten, the nasdaq up by 23. we've already seen four days in a row of gains >> i think it's four straight days the s&p now up 12% from the lows of the rally that started december 26th. you've recouped almost half of what was lost between the all time highs and december 24th >> you're still seeing green arrows we still have earnings coming in let's look at what's been happening in the treasury markets. yields a little higher today >> some stocks on the move this morning. eli lilly shares are lower after study results did not confirm the benefit of a sar kcoma treatment. the company said it sees a 17 cents per share impact to full year guidance. tiffany says it's down by 2% also expects for the full fiscal year to be toward the lower end of its prior guidance. wall street consensus is currently at 477 stock fell about 3% earlier. since rebounded a little bit it is down less than 1% at the moment >>> okay the government shutdown now clocking in at one month long.

we're still on air >> mike thompson of s&p investment and mike santoli and steve -- i like grasso. >>eah. >>> still to come, more charges for executive carlos ghosn plus a cnbc investigation found that one private jet company has left a trail of broken promises. outraged customers and security concerns on board its flights. we'll break that down for you when we come back. ♪ saved you a seat. this round's on me . hey, can you spot me? come on in! find your place, today, with silver sneakers... included with many medicare plans. call the number on the screen now or visit getsilversneakers.com [ neighing ] [ screeching ] ♪ [ sigh ] it's bring your own phone, not pony. so i could have taken the bus? yeah. bring your phone. switch your carrier. save hundreds a year with xfinity mobile. plus get $100 back when you bring in an eligible phone. call, click or visit a store today. >>> welcome back, everybody. japanese prosecutors have indicted carlos ghosn on two new charges of financial misconduct. they include aggravated breach of trust for transferring personal losses to nissan back in 2016.

i'm sara eisen mike santoli joining me.e day on wall street. triple digit gain for the dow. 118 points as i mentionedat one point in the day we were down 175 points. s&p 500 up .4% the nasdaq higher by .4. and the russell up almost half a percent. little bit of a defensive tone real estate did the best utilities were strong. industrials, though, a solid day with materials and staples only sector to end red, consumer discretionary. blame macy's, l brands and a bunch of other retail spending numbers. we'll get the outlook for the government shutdown when we hear from former omb director and ex-indiana governor mitch daniels. but here are the stories on the radar for investors. fed chairman powell says he doesn't see a recession on the horizon. indicated the fed's balance sheet to be reduced from the current level. that initially sent stocks lower but they managed to recover. retail stocks routed after macy's posted weak holiday sales numbers and why the chinese currency rallied what it says about the trade talks and the chine

i'm sara eisen along with mike santoli.day on wall street. gains across the board that makes 5 out of the last 6 sessions positive closes for the dow and s&p 500. dow out with a gain of more than 1% 256 points higher. boeing was the leader. s&p 500 also good for a gain of 1% and guess what. all of the sectors actually closed in positive territory financials lagging all day and closed actually pretty much flat but mostly a lot of green. nasdaq composite up a percent and the russell 2000 index of small caps a second day in a row outperforming everyone up 1.5% today. a much better tone to the markets. oil's been rising. yields are higher. the dollar a little bit stronger some optimism around the u.s./china trade talks the ceo of pharmaceutical company editas talks about the company and for a drug treating a disorder of blindness. controversial practice of gene editing. but first, joining us to talk about the market day, michael yokashami. and breaking news world bank, releasing the prospects. ominous title here darkening skies

i'm morgan brennan wilfred frost will join me in a moment mike santoli, cnbc markets commentator.hing the day on wall street as stocks settle we were up we were down then we finished up again, another volatile trading session here on wall street, the dow finishing up the day up 172 points, 24576. s&p up .2% 2638 is your level there, nasdaq finishing the day ever so slightly higher, 7,025 russell 2000 was the underperformer earnings was name of the game after united tech, ibm and procter & gamble reported beats that drove those gains in the dow today. we've got more earnings after the bell in a few moments. we've got three big names to watch. phil lebeau is covering ford, josh lipton on texas instruments and kate rogers is ready for las vegas sands. amazon taking aim at u.p.s. and fedex, promising merchants it will cut out traditional shipping fees. and jp morgan ceo jamie dimon weighing in on the u.s. economy and why the range for outcomes of economic growth are increasing joining us to talk about the market action today, serat sephi. first, mike, i'll start with you. >> yes huge

i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and mike santoli. andrew is off this week. big news out of china this morning the futures this morning, you can see the dow is indicated up by 290 points. this comes after decline of 66

. >>> joining us with more, victor anthony, analyst at agis capital and mike santoli we were talkinging the break, a lot of analysts had facebook as the top pick of the year you were defending your target when everybody was complaining about facebook >> right i made it my top pick, amidst all the scandals last year that's for 2019. >> what explains user growth in the face of that >> i think that users find a platform compelling. there's no alternative in terms of a platform where you can connect with friends and family on a massive scale all over the globe. there's no alternative to facebook now, which is why you see the user basis sticky and advertisers are following. >> expenses, they reiterated guidance, so why are investors thinking of it differently. >> two reasons went from 217 to 123 in five months there was a lot of negativity built into it. two, i think all of the financial impact is decisions management made. in terms of performance of the actual platform, advertiser demand, user iengagement that drives what the financial model will do was intact numbers told you that, that

i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and mike santoli. andrew is off today.are down sharply after the drop in apple shares and that warning about what's been happening in terms of sales and revenue there. dow futures indicated down by 370 points yesterday the futures made a stunning recovery from these levels they ended the session in positive territory though. that's the biggest advance you've seen on the first trading day of the

i am carl quintanilla at post with morgan brennan and mike santoli. jon has the morning off.cks on a bit of a tear, all coming off four straight positive sessions. dow and s&p had the best week since november, on pace for the best month in nearly two years markets were closed monday the government shutdown, headlines from davos, china trade and earnings are all driving this morning's action. >> and that's why we're going to stay with the markets right now. global growth concerns worrying investors with silicon valley's most prominent business leaders voicing recession fears from davos today. take a listen. >> the u.s. economy is slowing from where it was. remember, two quarters ago was 4.2% growth which is unsustainable for a large country like the united states we'll probably grow somewhere around 2.5%, maybe 2.75. i don't know where that came from the last two months of the year recession, is it minus one, plus one, let's not get technical about that too much. there's high likelihood of significant slowing in 2020. >> i heard some folks say maybe we should get a small reces

for more on what these wild moves mean for investors let's get to mike santoli as the nyse hi, mike. >> this volatility which has been going on more than three months, obviously unnerving investor who is were not positioned for a rapid repricing of the market for a slowdown it's created more risk aversion at the start of the year than you normally see and it's also registered a lot of technical and valuation and sentiment extremes of the sort that really resemble what you have seen as other -- in the region of other market lows. let's look at a few. first is the relative strength index for the s&p 500 itself a 14-day relative strength index. look at the chart. without getting into it too much the rsi measures the momentum and acceleration of the index itself relative to its trend basically it's been falling rapidly as we nop this is about a day old but even more so now and down near levels where it has bottomed during the post financial crisis era in other words when you are not it in a full blown bear market when it gets lower this is the region where the market attempts to bottom.

mike santoli with that. >> american airlines after slashing the outlook adding to the pain, seen in the last few months. is there more turbulence ahead we're joined by matt and mark. strategic wealth partners to talk about that a bit. matt, it's an ugly picture when you look at the airlines in america. i note there's they're up significantly from the morning lows i don't know if that means anything technically to you. >> i think it does one thing we need to know is this is another example of one old rule on wall street that never really worked that airline stocks go in the exact opposite direction of fuel prices or oil prices if you look at american air and crude oil, spent many months in the same direction and the opposite direction don't look at oil prices when it comes to airlines in general but anyway, for american airlines, the chart, it's funny, when the stock made a low in october along with the rest of the market, however, in december when the rest of the market was making a lower low, american airlines held the low at $30 making a nice double bottom and today's lowest level in

christmas, as you know joining us this morning, ben swi swindburn is head of media research our mike santolioins us on set, as well ben, let me start with you because you've got f.a.n.g. basically up 20% from those christmas lows, and we've got netflix tomorrow how much of this is going into the earnings season with too much optimism, or maybe, not enough >> well, i mean, i think things got a little bit out of hand in the fourth quarter, as we saw growth sell off tremendously, particularly in december we put out a piece on netfli last week. we remain establish on the stock. obviously, their decision to raise prices, i think really reinforce ouce our view this is year free cash flow burn will peak and that becomes the next piece of story for the stock as we move through the next year ever since we've been covering netflix, we've wanted to buy every big dip and that continues to be our approach we still like the stock, despite the run it's had since mid-december >> does their strategy necessarily change, if, in fact, free cash flow burn does peak? >> no. i mean, the strategy, i think, is to ma

let's get to mike santoli. >> thank you delta, yes, in a tailspin after bank of america downgrades therough ride for the rest. delta as well as american airlines, jetblue, off of sharp highs and is there a soft landing? boris slausberg. is there time to call a bottom here >> i'd say for delta, no identifiable trend to point to when that's the case and as it's been for delta, it has paid to buy the stock when it's ugly as it is now. however, if that's all i have to work with, i really don't have much to work with at all speaking in terms of levels for delta, big support is $45. this is the multiyear low and positive up there. >> the stock looks cheap a value opportunity or trap? >> it may be a trap because as far as the market is concerned, the only thing they care about is revenue per available mile and fares down 2.6% in december. and of course, the shutdown is really not helping the the airline indust airline industry today 2 hour waits, just the delays themselves are going to have a massive ricochet effect with the whole industry i think the story is still out there. watch guidance

. >> all right wilf, thanks wilfred frost, covering the banks for us mike santoli is with us as wellat's in store for us this earnings season as expectations have come from 20 down to 14 for the quarter? >> for the quarter, and then obviously still on paper for 2019, we're looking at 7 to 8. i think universally people think there's room to go down a few percentage points from there the question is whether the market has already price that had scenario in and i think it's got a good deal of the way there. if you basically have reassurance that we're getting 2% to 2.5% domestic gdp growth, earnings should stay above the flat line in that scenario the question is what multiple do you put on that, because i don't think we're back to the days of really rebuilding that valuation on these earnings because i don't see what liberates us from the end of cycle vigil, right? even if the fed is out of way for a couple of quarters or more, it's not clear to me that we're going to get back above 16 times forward earnings and 15 and change now we only flash cheap in this market for five minutes in d

. >>> welcome to the "closing bell," i'm contessa brewer in for sara eisen today with me mike santolicommentator as you can see the dow industrials up almost 3/4 of a point, the s&p is up 0.8%, and nasdaq up 1 1/3 percent, finishing the week slightly higher than flight former national economic council gene sperling advised senator elizabeth warren on his wealth tax proposal why he thinks her plan will benefit the economy. here's some of the stories on the radar for investors. president trump announcing a deal has been reached to reopen the government for three weeks intel's interim ceo giving new details on when the chip maker could be ready to announce a permanent leader. >>> and facebook's ceo mark zuckerberg writing an op-ed defending the social media giant's use of your data joining us to talk about the market day, barbara duran, who's a senior portfolio manager from bb eight capital partners. giver me a sense of the day and the week and how we ended in the markets. >> the broad indexes finished the week almost exactly flat, which i think qualifies as a net win just because we cam

blocking and tackling of like a bank of america can continue to create value into next year >> mike santoli and wilfred frost, we'll see you in a little bit. >>> the government shutdown is putting america's energy industry into peril. >>> plus, remember pokemon go? the maker of that game is giving harry potter fans 245 million reasons to be happy today. we're heading to hogwarts in today's rapid fire "the exchange" is back in two. >> want to get social with "the exchange"? e-mail us at theexchange@cnbc.com or find us on twitter @cnbctheexchange. >>> welcome back to "the exchange." here are some of the movers this hour united airlines jumping after reporting a beat on the top and bottom line. domestic revenues grew >>> pg&e seeing another down day after getting kicked out of the s&p 500. the california utility is now down 75% in the past month nearly 8% of that is today >>> ford is moving lower after forecasting weaker than expected fourth quarter profit. ford shares down about 5% today. over to sue herera for a cnbc news update. >> here's what's happening at this hour. at the state departme

or even warmer than normal temperature for february back to you guys >> thank you right over to mike santolirading nation. >> look at the dow's worst performing stock of 2019 it is about the report earnings. pfizer is down today also falling nearly 9% this month ahead of it release before the bell that's tomorrow. so is there more pain to come for pfizer and big pharma? with oppenheimer and gina sanchez, global. worth noting, pfizer was a strong stock last year and big pharma had a good run but where does that lead health care set-up to you this year? >> we're bullish on health care, more so the medical device side rather than the pharma side. for us, large cap is very relatively high dividend yield and a great second half of 2018 benefiting as that safe saichav asset. our concern is a source of funds as risk taking slowly comes back to the market and start to see signs of that pfizer today breaching the 200 day moving average for the first time a lot of support at $39. so we don't necessarily expect a lot of downside here we just see more attractive opportunities elsewhere in the sector >>

mike santoli is on set with us with a closer look. >> you know, jon, there's a lot of factors to considerer last year has anything to say about this year. you mentioned it's the first down year in ten, but it was a modestly down year the total return for the s&p 500 was a negative 4.4% last year. i looked at other years the past four times you had a less than 10% annual decline in the stock market it doesn't give you too much help in terms of saying what comes next 2000 was the last one. you did have a further decline through 2001 so that was one of the rare back-to-back negative calendar years it actually doesn't happen that often that you get consecutive bad years, but some of those other years had some nastiness before you got to that annual return so the beginning of that followin here is what i think is going to help us read what happens in the coming year. the market is still really oversold we built up so much fear and pessimism and negativity the bounce in the last four days is still with us you saw the resilience you can still burn some of that off in the form of a further bounce

mike santoli back with us at post 9 all the major indices took another leg higher during all those comments the nasdaq, though, we haven't mentioned as much. it's up nearly 4%. mike, they didn't seem -- powell didn't seem to fundamentally change his argument about what's going on the jobs report seemed to back him up why is the market so excited >> the emphasis was what the market wanted to hear. the combination of, hey look, the domestic economy is creating a lot of jobs, more than we thought, and wage growth let's convey some patience here. that's one of the reasons you're getting the tension release. it makes sense that we're getting this rally we haven't called off the slowdown watch >> i was here on set with you listening to the powell comments especially that open commentary. i was on set when he was speaking during his news conference this was a huge shift in tone, in message and in communication. i think he got the message that investors have been complaining about on cnbc, economists and strategists. i think it was on key three themes on the balance sheet, the inflation picture and

i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and mike santoli. andrew is off today.ity futures are down sharply after the drop in apple shares and that warning about what's been happening in terms of sales and revenue there. dow futures indicated down by 370 points yesterday the futures made a stunning recovery from these levels they ended the session in positive territory though. that's the biggest advance you've seen on the first trading day of the year in just about ever if you're looking at this now, you'll see the dow futures are indicated back down 365. s&p futures down by 42, the nasdaq down by 177 apple is the big story the tech giant cutting its quarterly sales forecast citing slowing iphone sales in china and lots of other things the china sales was the big issue. apple sees first quarter revenue of $84 billion, that's 5 billio to $9 billion below its origina forecast of between 89 billion to 93 billion. this is the first time that apple issued a revenue warning since the iphone was launched in 2007 tim cook sitting down exclusively with cnbc. >> as we look

i'm joe kernen along with melissa lee and mike santoli andrew and becky are off the futures are downt dow component along with boeing got us down about 175 now on the dow the nasdaq indicated down 42 the s&p down 14. big week for earnings. the heaviest week that we will have, i think, a quarter of the s&p, a third of the dow will all come in the coming days. treasury yields right now 10-year 2.76%. >> our big earnings report of the morning comes from cot pillar $2.55 a share versus expectations of $2.99. revenues did beat expectations coming in at $14.3 billion looking ahead, cat sees 2019 results in the range of $11.75 to $12.75 a share. stock falling following those numbers. the guidance for 2019 does skew it below the prevailing consensus of about $12.73. >> yeah. basically the estimate wrs at the top end of the range it'll be interesting to see if cat giving any color also on the cadence of the quarter whether there was a turn towards the end which would be more hopeful or whether or not whatever they saw is persisting in that conference call starting at 11:00 the first quarter c

mike santoli is also here.hington, you know what's happening in terms of the government shutdown but i think about those two things being related. talk about a crappy time to raise rates. if every week you are shaviin shaving .1% off of gdp even what may be a specious notion in the first place, stronger growth means i need to raise rates, even if there's no inflation, i don't understand that. but if you're damping growth by a tenth of a percent every week, i would think it makes the fed even more dovish. >> i think you're right. the fed doesn't want to tighten into a slowing economy in the first place. there isn't very much inflation, as you said. i think it's confusing about what the shutdown does to the gdp. some of this will be recovered when people are paid back but it's no doubt it's a negative and the other thing is if you're looking at the economy trying to figure out are we more in danger of overheating or undershooting, having less information just makes it harder. >> from the lack of government number

oncnbc live from the nasdaq market site in times square i'm scott wapner with kelly evans and mike santoli guest. look forward to doing that let's look at the futures right now set for a positive open across the board dow would open triple digits to the upside s&p would be up by 11 and the nasdaq would be higher by just shy of 33 points the implied open there. >> did andrew just do a head nod? >> he did. >> yeah. >> wow think he can still hear us right now? >> probably. did you want to talk to him? >> no. i just -- >> can you hear -- >> hey there i did a head nod on my own show. and yeah how you guys doing are you enjoying the set there back there in new york >> it's warm >> we can keep this going. what do you want to talk about >> what do you want to talk about? you're right there, andrew it feels weird like i don't want to keep going if you're right there. >> i'm right here. we can talk about treasury yields you're about to read those we can talk about wilbur ross. we're open to all topics you've got eamon javers in d.c >> we'll go to eamon in a second but since you brought it up, it is

scott is joining me along with mike santoli let's take a look at how we finished up the day on wall streetjust as the close there. the dow closing lower by about 660. it is still brutal 2.8% apple a big chunk of that closed lower, 9.96% worst day in years a big drive on s&p down 2.5%. nasdaq is finishing lower by 3%. the russell 2000 down 1.85%. worst day for stocks since christmas eve. it was the worst ever towards the stock market apple the story of the day was a catalyst for the selloffs. we'll discuss whether apple needs to cut iphone prices in order to combat the sales concerns in china and beyond seema is here. let's start with you >> another rough session on wall street we started the session on the apple story. the data weighed on industrials and materials. rate sensitive sectors actually posted gains for today shares of apple with today's losses down about 40% from the october high as you were discussing a number of them moving to the downside ranging there. that china effect being felt across sectors and you look at some of the industrial names leading the declines on the dow as

mike santoli is at the spotlight.part of the marketplace in the wake of this announcement from elliott. >> e-commerce etf, a decent size ebay is about 3.5% of this etf not enough that 8% gain in ebay. it is outperforming the market today up about 0.8%. it is in wight righite right he. the nasdaq etf and s&p 500 obviously big decline for everything down in here. but it has outperformed back on the way up ebay about 3.5% of this. paypal also about 3% of this so companies that used to be part of ebay are close to one-sixth of the etf it seems e-commerce because wayfair is in here, a lot of the hotter kind of consumer facing internet companies of the last couple of years are in here and basically the one area, aside from enterprise software that's really stood out as outperforming within tech, it seems to be continuing right here so, obviously, ebay has moved. not enough to sway the entire group but pointing out that maybe there's some value in here because ebay would have underperformed this whole sector for all this per

i'm sara eisen wilfred frost rejoining me in a moment along with mike santoli, markets commentator.ook at how we finished the day on wall street as wilfred mentioned, second day in a row of declined selling into the close and not as bad as the open opening by 230 points lower a loss of 91 points. s&p 500 down half a percent. nasdaq down a percent and same with the russell 2000. financials only group to close higher after citigroup kicked off the big bank earnings and the context, coming off of three straight weeks of gains. coming up on the show this afternoon, the ceo of colombia sportswear saying why he is taking out an ad in protest of the government shutdown. >>> china's trade surplus hitting a record $323 billion and how it could impact the trade talks. earnings season kicking off today as analysts cut that you are forecast at the highest rate since 2011 and apple under pressure again after one of its suppliers reported weak sales. joining us to talk about the market day, jim la camp is here, senior profolio manager at ubs mike, as always. markets ed tore. so the banks did okay