>> sure. >> mike santoli, close the discussion off. what does mr.arket want to see out of the election? >> aside from getting past it, i'm persuaded by the idea that the market probabilistic says the most likely set of outconditions is red waive or harris win with his some gridlock, which is a statue quo type of outcome, in which case the market can make its peace with that policy set. in the near term, you've seen an aggressive overplaying of the aggressive trump tried, because that outcome would have a much more extreme or dramatic effect directly on some quantifiable trade. if i told you harris is going to lose, it's not as clean a trade as dyt or coal or, you know, something like that where you feel like you have a clear path. that being said, i think beyond a sort of final settlement of the election, you basically want nothing super extreme. i don't think what the market wants is genuinely mass deportations plus tariffs on day one. that would be more disruptive than is priced in right now. >> mike santoli and ashish sha, thank you. >>> rick, sh

mike santoli, good to have you in the house, thank you. appreciate it. >>> the fed yieldgetting back for the first time. rick santelli has the latest from chicago. rick? >> every session, other than the hand-off from last month to the first day of october, has seen a higher yield fourth consecutive session, and not only that, every session has traded. if you look at the 2s and 10s on the chart, we're in the 360s on a 2-year. where it stands right now, up a half a dozen basis points, and it briefly did tame ever. it started out the beginning of the month in the 370s. if we look at the two charts, the speed of this -- this is a two-week chart. we've gone from a 27-month wide on the 25th to a breefs. earlier today, under zero. that really does underscore how the market is pushed bay against the fed, and it really highlights the fed controls overnight funds and a giant microphone. but the rest have their own life. speaking of that, we have 10-, 3-s, 30-. it underscores the speed of the market. kelly, back to you. >> thanks very much. >>> comin

first, to what mike santoli is watching more than anything else today, that's what?bble with the market action itself obviously. most stocks are kind of consolidating today. you have more stocks down than up, able to rotate away and you have the nvidia jolt that helps the indexes. i think big picture, we now have a very tight embrace and broad recognition that the economy is better than we thought it was two months ago. i'm in the mode of the rally has carried to a certain point where you have to ask, are we building extremes, is sentiment getting too complacent, have we stretched ourselves in terms of expectations for earnings. it is not clear to me you would answer yes to all those things just yet, but i feel as if you just go to the market and say, hey, you know what, the economy is pretty good, earnings are going to be up, the fed is cutting, the market's reaction is, i know, that's why we're here. that's the give and take in terms of heading into the homestretch. >> it is simple for some. i quote -- i quoted multiple times today the new daniel logan investor let

joining us to kick things off, jason pride at glen meade and cnbc's mike santoli as well. energy, oil and gas, they're moving oil itself moving. doesn't appear yet that there's a macro impetus on the market. >> no, not evident right now, and probably in part that's because of the absolute levels that we're coming off of here. big gains, we've been in 73. so until it imposes itself in terms of getting out of this ban, i don't think it's a macro driver we do have a market othat's apprehensive october 7th anniversary of the hamas attacks on israel, i think that's on people's minds as well as everything stacked up between here and the election, and we're in the anticipation mode all of that means we're going to wait and see perhaps nervously against that, you have nvidia popping. remember that old story? that's supporting the old market as is the general sense of the fed easing into what should be an earnings upswing, which should create a bit of a buffer ahead of anything we might be worrying about. >> jason, there are energy investors who would say a couple of dollars of cru

mike santoli, fold this in, give us a preview of your column this weekend. most bullish commentary i'm seeing from analysts, broadly speaking, is they see both earnings and multiples growing, and even at a moment when the third year of a bull market, which we're entering, is typically a little bit more of a choppy one. so it's just the banks so far. we have a lot more on tap. what's the expectation? >> well, i would argue that earnings growing or at least in the future quarters accelerating a little bit from this quarter's pace, and holding the multiple is probably the bold case that might seem like it is a little more prudent to bet on, opposed to expanding, you know, the s&p e above 22 times where we are now. unique aspect at this moment, though, fed already in ease mode, at least, you know, removing restrictions into an earnings recovery. that's one of the anomalies of many of this cycle that we're dealing with right now. it does seem like it's all sort of supporting and pushing in the right direction. again, i still think we have to have everything teste

mike santoli here to break down the crucial moments of the trading day. eebles on how eli lilly is holding in the world of glp 1s. phil lebeau will have the reaction for us. mike, what's on your mind? >> still a bull market. looks like it and acts like it in every significant respect. it really has slowed down. it's come across this leadership shift. been absorbing the retreat on a relative basis in megacap tech. we're up since mid july 2 1/2 months. less than 1% in the s&p 500. the average stock has done better. all of that is context as the bull market gets ready to enter the third year. more of a sober plotting type of a tone to a bull market. everything else is clicking together. i think the fact that it can wea wait and see near the highs is not a negative. >> time flies. it's hard to believe -- >> two years. >> -- it's been two years for this bull market. >> in a couple of weeks. >> see what happens on friday with the jobs report where this next step goes, i suppose. angelica peebles following eli lilly for us today. what can you tell us? >> reporter

seema mody with the update on 3m. >>> mike santoli joins us now for his own last word of the day.and heavy on the earnings and the jobs report. >> the s&p 500 hanging in there. a low momentum move. it's been sideways for two weeks. picking spots starting to get overexcited, bank up another 2% today as a group. small caps have this bid. watching for areas that are just looking jumpy and have all that hot money like gamestop is up 10%, bitcoin may be breaking out. it's odd. the overall market is in wait-and-see mode. and you also have this retail money that may suggest people are getting overconfident in certain themes. the earnings are really going to overtake whatever is going on from here as well as the bond market response to data. >> we're going to ring the bell, green across the board. 24 hours from now we are going to start delivering those mega cap earnings. alphabet is going to kick it off as we send you to cover that huge story and what lies ahead into "o.t." with morgan and jon. >>> that's the end of regulation. walmart ringing the closing bell. data i.o. doing the honors

mike santoli here to break down the crucial moments of the trading day plus two earnings reports in otatching closely. seema mody on ibm, phil lebeau on tesla mike, i will turn to you we've been sort of sitting with these declines of about 1% for a while now. >> looked like it might get a little bit out of hand around 2:00 or so what's interesting is is there significance to where it stopped i think is the question. it was right exactly at the september highs in the s&p 500 so if you sort of see it as the market sort of defending this october range and trying to stay in a sort of upper register for the third quarter, also treasury yields obviously have been the pressure point, been on the upside all day but right around the same time stocks bottomed they backed off a little bit that's often how this goes when stocks are nervous about how high yields are getting if yields start to back off because bonds get a safety bid, now, these are small moves, it's not a big deal we came into this weekprobably with some pent up selling, so post options expiration and pre-election, you really should

let's bring in mike santoli for more. october can be a rough month, but so far, we're only halfway through. there's a lot of time left here. the second half of the game is still to be played. a lot can happen, but so far, so good. >> for sure, tyler. one of the things about the seasonal tendencies for some choppiness or downside action in october, everybody knows them going into october. we were braced for something worse. the persistent uptrend in this market is a function of the known visible positives, just outweighing the feared hypothetical negatives. and those positives, of course, the economy has begun again, outperforming economists' forecasts. you have the fed that is in easing mode, to whatever degree, ultimately, but right now, an easing mode into an earnings upswing for the s&p 500. that's not the most common combination out there. and obviously, we have corporate credit spreads that are very tight. just this general acceptance of risk out there. soft landing seems more positive and benign. and of course, beli

be deliberate and be disciplined and you'll get through this. >> mike santoli, let me get you to reactr said you can't deny the fact that s&p 500 has tripled over the past ten years, up 60% over the past two years, and that would suggest that well maybe this party can't go on forever. at the same time, saying there will be a slow down in returns you could still make nice money at 7% a year as opposed to, you know, as opposed to 13%, 13% higher, obviously. >> sure. well, i mean 7% would absolutely be -- you would probably sign up for it right now given the starting point and, you know, i don't think goldman's an outlier here if you look at the standard math in terms of asset allocation entering today at a 1.3% initial dividend yield for the s&p 500 at 22 times forward earnings makes assumptions about there will be an economic cycle that interrupts the trajectory of earnings and you have to build in a cushion for absorbing some tougher times. vanguard maintains a ten-year projected asset return outlook and said as of june of this year, you know, 3 to 5% for u.s. equities over the next te

mike santoli, let's pick up where we left off, this new record high for the nasdaq heading into thesech i think is a net positive, it hasn't been click to go new highs as the broader market has been. the nasdaq 100 which is really the kind of mega cap concentrated version is half a percent below the july peak. again, it basically means it has reset lower, cooled off smard to the overall market. it's coming back into some kind of an equilibrium. you probably have mostly reasonable expectations for companies going in. alphabet you were talking about it, on a relative valuation basis it's never been cheaper versus the s&p. if we're going to anchor to something like that. but it's all probably a constructive thing. i think the broader market is in this kind of churning and waiting around phase, you know, you had two two to one negative to positive stocks today in the new york stock exchange, we're pretty much flat on a month to date basis on the average stock so we're resting -- again, i keep talking about pockets of speculation, trying to either maneuver toward higher yield story and a r

i'm mike santoli in for scott wapner. this make-or-break hour be

e*trade from morgan stanley >>> "closing bell market zone," mike santoli here to break down the crucial leslie picker with the headlines from her interview with the largest trade, and, michael, i'll turn to you first less than ten points from a new closing high on the dow. we've picked up steam here as we've hit the final, final stretch. >> it was an hours long struggle to find something to complain about and not much in the jobs report all the stuff you maybe had fear about clicked off in a positive direction. that being said, i still feel as if people are kind of sitting on risk budgets here. you don't see the grab we're only 20 s&p points away. the dow is basically there if people feel like they're involved but almost a healthy reservoir of caution we're in october, we have these known events and it's keeping the market in check from celebrating what was pretty much an unambiguously positive jobs report oil popping, that's okay because it was so low. i think you're in a lucky spot to be facing those macro moves >> i had a money manager, i'll leave it at that, text me and say i bought

mike santoli is here to break down the crucial moments of the trading day. esting price action in the market as we started our program with. i'm still curious about your thoughts. >> yeah. the overall market is very low momentum right now. it's kind of gotten into the drift, the cruising altitude. the s&p 500 is up 1% month to date. all at the beginning. month. the median stock month to date is down half a percent. what does that mean? it means some of the large stocks have started to contribute to the up side. you see that today. modest through the alphabet numbers in the form of microsoft getting a big, amazon as well. it's all coming together in terms of earnings being good enough for now. not a huge beat rate but good enough. the gdp number was nominally amiss but it was way better than we thought we were getting a month ago. good enough economic data. yields aren't blowing out to the up side at the moment. it's all fine for now. i do think there's very much a wait and see. maybe there's too much of a consensus that the market is going to rip higher novem

mike santoli. chu with a look at key names that have powered or missed out on the recent rally. >> you guys have talked about a number of the stocks that have really kind of participated in this whole two-year bull market, as we've seen it develop here. so, let's kind of take a step back and take a look at the sectors overall. you mentioned the equal weight doing well over the last several months. that's been that broadening out trade, if you will. for the s&p 500 over that two-year span, a healthy and respectable 63% gain in that span. again, it's been the leadership that has been muscle memory for years now at this point. and the reason why i say that is if you look in that two-year span we've seen, the sector gainers, the biggest performing contributors and whatnot, have been the ones we've always seen kind of play out since the wake of great financial crisis back in 2008 to 2010. we're talking about technology. we're talking about communication services. and we're talking about industrials this

mike santoli here to break down the crucial moments of this trading day. the worst performer on the trading day. phil lebeau will tell us what's going on. leslie picker with her story. mike, we're pushing 5800 on the s&p 500. we'll have a new record close for that and the dow today. >> yeah. the it seems like we're burning up some of that caution that really did set in place coming into october, this idea that so many people were braced for potentially more down side. i feel as if we're dealing with all of the known positives. an economy that seems like it's percier than we thought it was. fed might slow down the easing path, but so what. cpi tomorrow. yeah, there's some stakes involved there. since we've already gone into a place of listening to a potentially less dovish fed message, it doesn't seem like it's that dangerous. all that being said, we still have the vix at 21. people are still saying it's pre-election time. we can't just assume that it's going to be cutting loose to the up side in a real dramatic way from here, but we'll see. >> positioning w

mike santoli here to break down the crucial moments of the trading day.ree months. frank holland with more on that. phil lebeau on southwest and elliott striking an agreement. michael, you first nice turn here actually as we approach the finish here s&p is good for about 16 points. >> as tesla has extended its gains, nvidia is riding along. you had a little bit of an improvement in underlying breadth. big picture, earnings have mostly done what you want to see. some big potholes. ibm is trading pretty sharply to the downside you also had treasury yields that halted their rise almost exactly where they had to to look like an uptrend it's status quo. we can hover near the highs. big picture, we keep saying credit spreads are narrow as can be all the inputs here, we hit 10 of 11 months higher. that's not the setup for the start of a bear market beyond that, it's all a matter of what you want to paz for the fex phase of earning growth. >> frank, ups, talk to me. >> ups shares up 5% as investors reward groelth and volume for the first time in seven quarters an

cnbc senior markets commentator mike santoli here to break down the crucial moments of the trading day're going to have record highs again. >> the market has struggled to find anything to really worry about in the new data, in obviously banks. people were maybe not giving them enough credit for the data, at least initially. there was also a breakout to the two-year high in the bank sector that i think has this chase mode. so many people, and look, i understand why, were entering october saying there is no rush to do much here because you're going to expect some downside chop. you have a lot of hedging going on, and the market is not making people feel comfortable with being underinvested. i don't think a lot of people are underinvested but they might feel as if the market could get away from them a little bit. some of the weakest stocks on a year to date basis up substantially this week. it feels like the market is searching for hated stuff or things where people are underexposed, walgreens, intel, lulu up way more. >> the russell is by far and away the story today. up 2%. we're able t

commentator mike santoli here to break down the crucial moments of trading day.the chips space. and phil lebeau looking forward to united airlines. michael, what's on your mind? what's the standout for you? >> well, scott, a proper shakeout at least at the index level and especially from the interday highs. it seems a few things moving together. one is this kind of re-inflation trade, the china revitalization trade did have a little switch-back and seemed to upset short-term crowded positioning. we do also as we're going to discuss, you know, semis looked like they were on the come back, and they were heavyweight on the in index. you have the overlay-up, and i mentioned this yesterday, what's a sloppy initial earnings reaction even though numbers have been good, outside the banks it seems like there's a little more room for disappointment or a reflex sell the news than not. all that coming together, i think after five straight weeks higher, and the market looking just a little bit short-term stressed, it has us in recent -- by the way, more stocks up than down. t

e*trade from morgan stanley >>> all right, we're now in the "closing bell" market zone mike santoliergs have been reassuring, reactions to earnings have been relatively upbeat i do think it's orderly, this little pullback, from all-time highs. it is being born mostly by the leadership, cyclicals, banks, rate sensitive stuff, industrials and consumer cyclicals, we still have a market that is sensitive when it looks like treasury yields are starting to run. half a percent off it's about figuring what this market has priced in growth, fed policy and yields. so far so good the market is not super overbought but people have started to grab for stuff that hadn't yet moved we're in a moment it feels like we're pricing in good stuff. >> see what happens if you get the ten year at 4.20 or over that level, does it make stocks more jittery than they appear to be >> the russell down a percent and a half today, a quick skim off the top. two steps forward, one and a half steps back type of move for that yield sensitive cyclical area i think it is all about whether we have escape velocity in yield o

cnbc senior analyst, mike santoli, and steve kovach will have details as well.ction. obviously, we're watching the middle east. the dollar was up, yields were -- all the typical stuff. dollar up, yields down, oil up. >> in mild form you had the typical recoil when you have geopolitical risk type event injected into the market. you also had the first of the month, losing the end of the quarter bid. i think the market over the course of the middle part of the day read the actions of iran as somewhat stage managed and not necessarily an open-ended escalation and it felt familiar. all that being said, there's an interesting tension between everything leading up to the final quarter of the year suggesting further upside ahead. the trend is intact. if you make a new. high in september, if you're up 20%, all of that feeds into we usually finish the year strong. often with profit taking in chop and downside testing in october. i think it makes sense that the nasdaq was the source of weakness for the morning. it was not defense. magazine ga cap tech was not acting as def

mike santoli is here to break down the crucial moments of the trading day.tential deal in the works in the gaming space. contessa brewer has details for us. and cay rooney on why robinhood is heading for its best day since may. mike, it's all about tech today. the s&p may not get to a new closing high today, but it's going to get close as a result of the move in those names. >> seven points or eight points, something like that. this is a day from out of may or june where you would have nvidia or a couple names take control of the index. right now it's about a 50/50 up versus down day in the new york stock exchange and the nasdaq. it shows you they have rested enough. nvidia's all-time high was back in uni. it's been working sideways and coiling up. i don't think you say okay, this is the new market from here on out through the end of the year but it shows you there's always room for the market to find a way when the big inputs are not being questioned. the fed is easing at whatever pace into a good economy, gdp gets revised to 3.2 or something today. it's al

e*trade from morgan stanley >>> mike santoli here. ghest level in more than a year. brandon gomez has those numbers. amazon reporting in overtime. mark mahaney joins us to report what he expects. mike, i'll send it to you. obvious down day. megacap tech is down weight. >> it is. >> meta, microsoft, uber in the mix, too. the. >> it's all i think the pressure from the megacaps, but also it's a pretty persistent but orderly risk reduction going on across the markets. stocks down, bonds down, makes sense to pull the market towards neutral wherever it was overextended ahead of the jobs report, ahead of the election. it's not really panic. it's not a washout. the average stock's doing better than the indexes because of microsoft and meta dragging on the s&p 500. maybe it's a little bit of this pent up we thought we were going to get some volatility and we have it until now. i was talking earlier, it looks like a pretty normal pull back in the indexes to the 50-day average or thereabouts. nothing alarming. it shows you that we didn't see enou

i'm mike santoli in for scott wapner. this make-or-break hour begins with wall street shaking off a setback as stocks stage abroad a moderate rally. orderly out there. earnings, a retreat in treasury yields and belief that the economy is in a sweet spot. here's a look at the scorecard with 60 minutes to go in regulation. s&p 500 grinding higher from some early losses, up about half a percent as we speak right now. you see mega cap losers from yesterday down, that would include nvidia and united health. a more mixed picture for the nasdaq. a lot of movement below the surface in some big names off the bat. not quite a third of a percent. the russell 2000 has been higher all day actually, at about 1.6%. bank stocks have been strong. they're continuing to trade up on some pretty clean, reassuring earnings reports, financials often move higher with small caps. morgan stanley the standout. nvidia making another run at its all-time intraday high, above $1.40 a share. the semis more broadly are mixed. we'll go deep in a bit. firs

i'm mike santoli in for scott wapner. this make or break hour begins with stocks tireless push to more new highs, with those feared october ghosts nowhere in sight. let's get a check on the scorecard with 60 minutes to go in regulation. the s&p 500 tracking for its 46th new record high of 2024. you see it up there, about .8%. the dow started soft in the morning but has flipped into the green. now up half a percent. the nasdaq, though, big tech is in the harness today. galloping ahead. that nasdaq composite outperforming up almost a full percent after had it lagged for most of the third quarter. nvidia hunting for its first new high since june. you see the stock here up 2.5%, 2.8% on the day. the intraday high is just above 140 on this reignition of enthusiasm for the ai investment theme. the bond market closed today for the holiday but treasury etfs are trading lower in price. that implies further upside to yields with economic data coming in a bit better in recent weeks and expectation for fed rate cuts being pared back.

mike santoli here to break down the crucial moments of the trading day.s steve kovac on two big tech downgrades and julia boorstin on what's putting pressure on shares of disney. your thoughts on this market? >> we have this pile-up of familiar challenges that i think are all right in front of us right now. obviously, the yield move, the repricing of the fed, it's the geopolitical backdrop, the season. as much as the prevailing view is october, you have to expect some choppiness, you have to expect some downside tests. why are you going to put on more risk coming up on the election? as much as you want to fade that because it seems like it's such a consensus view and say the most surprising thing would be if we ripped higher from here, its reerl's really hard to do, oppose that idea that it's too many impediments to going out on a limb and decide to buy this market with both hands. you are seeing still selectativity. it's not a washout entirely. the lows for today were just above the july highs in the s&p. we have been defending this area just below 5700.

. >>> mike santoli, there it is, the two-minute warning let's talk nvidia because it's one of those outperformersresting. obviously, the openai news pushes in the direction of having people rediscover the fundamental demand story the stock is really kind of gotten itself tightly coiled in here peaked back in june. it's not too far from that high. but it's been unable to really get -- string together multiple days it's pretty interesting in that it didn't break down and it's held this valuation. you can talk about whether next year's numbers look bright and you have a less expensive stock. so, you know, the big cap tech didn't have defense the last time we had a nervous market on monday or so tuesday. now it seems as if maybe at least a couple of them are trying to play that role >> we're definitely feeling a little tensed up ahead of tomorrow morning the vix is north of tw20 by a touch. volatility has increased clearly feel a little nerve racked going in. >> it's the jobs report, but it's also the overlay of potential retaliation in the middle east for the iran air strikes. you have the anniversa

mike santoli, thank you. that does it for us at "overtime," ", ," ""fast money"s now." >> this is "fast money," live from the nasdaq markets. here is what's on tap tonight. an after hours earnings palooza, we are dialed into this evening's big reports. we are one week away from the elections and bond and stock markets seem to have different reads on what to expect. who is right, what's it mean for the rest of the year? plus d.r. horton rocks the foundation for home builders, we're counting down to the results from eli lilly tomorrow. i'm melissa lee live from studio b at the nasdaq. on the desk, steve, karen, and guy adami. a massive night of earnings from big tech to big burritos. full team coverage. seema mody standing by on amd. kate rodgers has the scoop on chipotle, julia boorstin dialed into the snap conference call. we start off with deirdre bosa, she joins us here on set. >> amazing. >> first of all, it's a delight to be here in-person. thank you for having me. i'm listening to the earnings call right

for more on that, dana peterson, our own steve liesman, mike santoli as well.g to start worrying about -- >> yeah. >> anything? >> no, i didn't hear anything, what megan was saying, i'm so glad in the story she reported. >> and the stability, so -- >> they don't want to make waves right now, joe. if it's to be made next quarter and the quarter after that, there's a huge massive interesting discussion for another day about the debt ceiling and how the treasury manages a january debt ceiling with an august running out of money because they have all of these different ways of accounting, yada, yada, yada. but that's not the story for today, they're keeping it kind of quiet. i love your comment, who said i grade the treasury on pass/fail? >> and this other guy who wants it right now -- you grade -- you're a tough grader, rick, you don't grade on a curve? >> no, i don't grade on a curve. here's what i see fascinating. we're seeing the refunding coming out, whether you're following the packages, two, fives, sevens, they're going up a bit. when we go to wow, expectati

mike santoli is at the nyse. what are you thinking about? the dow futures are down attributable to mcdonald's decline at the open. moderate declines suggested by the s&p 500 futures. it has been soft footing this week on monday, i mentioned this is the week after an options expe ration in option that means there's deferred selling, a little movement, higher volatility, we've been pressured by higher treasury yields as well hovering below the highs every day this week has been one big megacap, even as the majority of stocks have been digesting and consolidating to the down side. look at where the ten year treasury yield has gotten to it's creating a hesitation in equities, feeling for the spot it's going to pinch equity valuation and performance. i have the 200 day average you see we just popped barely above it right there there's a down trend in place that maybe is going to get broken, some suggest four and a quarter is an area or 2% yields is where things get dicier though it's worth pointing out we were at the level in july before the grow

thanks, guys scott wapner and mike santoli.0 west texas back above 72 when we return an exclusive with en cfo sarah friar on the big fundraising round. stay with us when you're looking for answers, it's good to have help. because the right information, at the right time, may make all the difference. at humana, we know that's especially true when you're looking for a medicare supplement insurance plan. that's why we're offering "seven things every medicare supplement should have". it's your free, just for calling the number on your screen. and when you call, a knowledgeable, licensed agent-producer can answer any questions you have and help you choose the plan that's right for you. the call is free. and there's no obligation. you see, medicare covers only about 80% of your part b medical expenses. the rest is up to you. that's why so many people purchase medicare supplement insurance plans like those offered by humana. they're designed to help you save money and pay some of the costs medicare doesn't. depending on the medicare s

mike santoli. road map for the rest of the hour. could be a make or break week for tesla.but essentially flat for the year. we'll talk about how the street's positioning. >> financials coming off their best day since february as big banks get ready to report results. >>> openai raises one of the largest rounds for a private company ever. we'll have an exclusive with brad lightcap. big show ahead. squawk on the street right back. (man) look at this silly little sailboat... these men of means with their silver spoons, eating up the financial favors of the 1%. what would become of them when they discover robinhood gold allows others to earn their very liberal rates on idle cash, unlimited deposit bonuses and handsome retirement matching? they would descend into chaos. merciless chaos. ♪ ♪ with so much great entertainment out there... wouldn't it be easier if you could find what you want, all in one place? my favorites. get xfinity streamsaver with netflix, apple tv+, and peacock included, for only $15 a month. >>> tesla's long awaited robo taxi deal. joining us this morning,

mike santoli at cnbc headquarters. ing up? what if they went up significantly. people point out the options are still big. you need to attract people to fund a lot of the needs of the government, and they could -- you could theoretically see rates continue to rise, even if the fed continues to cut? >> you could absolutely. >> is that bad? >> get that resteepening mood. i don't know about bad. from these levels doesn't seem it's necessarily threatening, although it's been a quick round trip. first look at the s&p 500, because in general markets are absorbing a much better than expected jobs report friday and what it means for the fed for rates, and for earnings. essentially called off the growth scare. s&p coming from a position of strength. 21 by 21 market. up 21% year to date and trading above 21 times forward earnings. flattened in the last while. haven't gotten a lot of upside about a percent and a half above mid-july highs. also around 21.8 times earnings. in other words, holding valuations because earnings are goin

calls the three key market debates going into the end of the year, senior markets commentator mike santoli the rise in yields. most of that seems to be tracking the better than expected performance of the u.s. economy. but it fits into one of the second debates or the second of the three i'm going to mention which is to what degree the market in its recent run in terms of cyclical leadership, banks working, small caps coming off the mat and the yields going up are pricing in an election scenario and whether that's a reliable indicator of what the policy swing is going to mean. i think i would point to the 2016 and 2020 elections, they had massive rallies after the election outcomes. that was a trump win and a trump loss. and the difference perhaps now is in 2016, the market really wanted policies that were going to wake up and underperforming economy, low inflation, low growth, high nominal gdp policies were what the market craved. not clear that's where we are now. we are coming off a high growth, high inflation scenario. in 2020, what the market was betting on was massive fiscal response

our senior markets commentator mike santoli fielding questions about this one. >> sure. >> on calls thisnal math gets you if you enter the market at 22 times forward earnings after a period of above average returns with some assumptions about how the economy is cyclical and things are mean reverting. i find it interesting, in fact the trailing returns are stunning. i was looking last week at the 25-year annualized return for the s&p 500. it's 8.5%. 25 years ago you were buying into the almost very peak of the biggest investment bubble we've ever seen. and so it's sort of the market is kind of bailed you out over that period of time. five years ago, the total return from five years ago, 16% annualized total return. now remember what happened in the interim five years. two bear markets, a global pandemic and now you still got 16%. so if there is this pendulum swing and ebb and flow of returns it makes sense. goldman using a stringent valuation standard, cyclically adjusted p/e. they also fascinatingly said the extreme market concentration right now is a reason why they think returns will b

no double, or triple digit gains yet but up 60 in the dow nasdaq up 67 get to mike santoli. yeah steady market heading into the jobs report. been more or less on pause this first week of october after closing at a new weekly high all-time take a look at the s&p 500 look at it over a year-to-date basis, you see definitely managed to get five moss in a row higher suggesting in itself we're not necessarily, the market not picking up clues of imminent downturn the last two job reports a good amount of downside movement intensified fears of a harder landing when we got the numbers payrolls goldie lo locke -- goldilocks-ish the market is concerned with the consumer hanking in. home depot versus lohwes. accelerating higher. lower rates, obviously high mortgage refinance applications things like that acting as a tailwind quality element to the big bellwethers. talking oil, geopolitical situation there. one reason the broader markets are able to azorb this move a five-year chart of wti crude you see absolute levels are totally unthreatened relative to where we've been recently. helps

for more on the markets over to mike santoli at the nyse. -- still not a rally anyone's excited be or that anyone believes after 45 new highs. do you get that feeling, too? or -- some people must believe in it? >> i was going to say. overstated saying nobody believes or it's a hated market. i definitely think reserve of people believing or fully trusting it. i mean tsh, it can get a lot mo exuberant than now. nos extreme or dangerous. you can slice that either way. you see the trend certainly is strong and a lot of people are saying as long as that's the case, it's hard to argue with fed cutting rates, earnings on the upswing, the economy doing better than expected. all of the big picture things working in the right direction. 50 day average on s&p here, too. it's gotten a little stretched relative to that 50-day average, but actually because that average itself is kind of accelerated higher, 50 days ago, by the way, trading days, about that early august low. therefore, we have strong move off that. it's actually managing to retain the benefi

we want to get to mike santoli. >> good morning.the modest losses of last week. we had a six week win streak going into last week. the s&p 500 down close to 1%. the majority of stocks digested gains prior and were lower but some of the mag seven perking up, looks like an orderly process here. now independent of general seasonal patterns, election year patterns, the market today embarks on one of the strongest multi-day periods in history whatever that is worth now through the first of november so we are getting a bid as the market goes down. this is a big element of what's going on in markets. a big steep rise higher. economic numbers stronger than forecast over this period of time. this rough liquor lates to when treasury yields started to pick up to the upside. a lot of factors feeding in but this is a big part of the backdrop. we have employment data coming in as well. so it's a question of whether yields impinge on equity values hasn't happened yet but ten year four and a quarter has the market's attention. mag seven has not bee

for more on this get down to our own mike santoli at the new york stock exchange. to go. >> no. absolutely. always the opportunity for further payback. i do think, though, this is how the market trades, andrew, when you're anticipating volatility but the fundamentals strong enough to really support things up almost 1% in the s&p month to date. it has slowed down. i keep pointing out the last three months since mid-july that peak. up 2.5% of the 22% year to date gains. clearly it's become less generous, a little more sector rotation below the service, but a fed easing into an earnings upswing. most incoming data confirming a soft landing hypothesis. anything about seasonal, preelection, geopolitical volatility seems overcome by those fundamentals. you see we've actually kind of clipped to another high. 45 this year. last two years, this part weekend many said the two-year anniversary of start of this bull market. the 13th had intraday low. yesterday. here's s&p versus the emerging markets etf. all emerging markets. russell 2000 small caps. trading like american small

down to the new york stock exchange where mike santoli is standing by. ing off from record highs a little bit this morning, take a look at the s&p 500 year-to-date, it's, obviously, a bull market and a pretty persistent one up six weeks in a row, ten months out of 11. it's become more hard-fought since mid-july. keep pointing out only up a few. this angle recently has become more of a pretty steady hire. keep in mind, cyclical leadership confirms it's a pretty good economic message being sent by the s&p 500. last week on a short-term tactical basis a lot of short squeezes, a lot of the more speculative stuff starting to run, that sometimes happens when a rally matures, corporate insiders have picked up their selling. maybe time for a rest. friday was an options expiration and often the market can move a little bit more freely and get a little bit jumper after that happens, at least in the ensuing week. take a look at the equal weighted s&p 500 compared to the russell 2000 small cap index. so much talk about the broadening out of the market from that conce

more on the markets straight to the new york stock exchange mike santoli standing by. >> yeah, andrewreduction straight you get with geopolitical escalation. s&p 500 high end of third quarter. also like 5% or so peak above 50-day average. a little stretched. often you see a shakeout, pause, pullback in october even if the fourth quarter's strong. 50-day average is down around 5540. call it 3% down from here. point being anything down in that zone is still pretty much in normal pullback territory. 5,600 a sealing of the market for a while. see if it comes into play at all. a different character in the market as we've gone through the third quarter. look at this tortoise and hare chart. walmart versus nvidia. conspicuous. nvidia making lower highs not able to get traction and holding on to massive year-to-date gains on top. walmart steadily in consumer staples bucket. the spending levels are okay. even if labor market is softening up in aggregate in the economy. seems to be one. things reflected in walmart. take a look at a chart i've been using for a couple years. starbucks relative to

mike santoli at the nyse >> the s&p 500 managed to hold pretty close to its record highs this week, even and pulling back a little bit below the surface after a six-week win streak. in the index, up 22% year to date at about 22 times forward earnings holding that elevated valuation for now because earnings estimates continue to go up. there reports coming in, mostly reassuring and the fed is easing at some pace into a still resilient economy. the economic surprise index is going in the right direction things are enabling the market to hang in there and mostly hold just 1% or so below the highs. look at a couple of bellwether areas i like to monitor, this home builders and semiconductors, since the end of 2022, almost two years, have been pretty close. as you see they have doubled but they're off their highs, they have been kind of churning below those highs. you see the massive momentum peak in the semis toward midyear as home builders fell, yields went up. still, these are big supply demand long-term secular stories that the market probably wants to lead if, in fact, it is going to have

cnbc senior markets commentator make santoli is here and phil lebeau on the drop, and kristina part sin avenue loss on amd. mikethe tactical pause and even though we're up for the week and hit a new record yesterday. i've been saying we're in a 21, 21, 21 market. up 21% year to date, and 21 times forward earnings and the vix is at 21. i think that's why we're attentive to all of the incoming info, but it doesn't really need as a clear directional catalyst just yet. today, breadth is poor, nvidia is up and you have the market to stay supported. >> nvidia is supporting an all-time high -- >> than it otherwise would without it. >> exactly, i would say for the last month to date, the nasdaq 100 has taken over. >> phil lebeau, what's going on with delta today? >> two tstories here today, scott. noisy in the words of ed bastion, ceo of delta when we talked to them earlier today and they missed on the top any bottom line and there was an impact from hurricane helene of 3 cents a share, crowdstrike outage cost 500 million and that's half the story with shares of delta. the other half is the q4 outlook. they said they w