chair powell: i do. as we have discussed, in the last couple of years when unemployment was routinely below 4%, as low as 3.5%, and where labor force participation was high, it had moved up despite excavations that it wouldn't, we saw lots of virtuous effects in the labor market. one of them was you saw employers invest more in training. you saw employers looking for people at the margins of the labor force. employers were going to prisons and getting to know people before they came out, and giving them jobs. great things happening from a tight labor market. i just think we saw that, and that is one of the reasons why we are so eager to get back to that, consistent with also maintaining price stability. but we really do think, and others saw the same thing we did, that the broad societal benefits of a tight labor market. sen. cortez masto: would you agree that congress's investment in workforce to filament -- workforce delimit -- workforce development is helping the workforce in that? chair powell: again

chair powell: yes. senator van hollen: and i'd also want to turn really quickly to the importance of using the right kind of economic measurements to determine the well-being of american workers and families. as you noted in that same speech, unemployment among low-wage workers is 17%, where it was at the start of the pandemic. where as among high-wage workers it's down 4%. so you take the average, you're not -- you're not seeing the disproportionate impact on low-wage workers. i'd often give the example that if jeff bezos had moved to baltimore city last year, the per capita income of baltimore city would have gone from $53,000 per person to $175,000 per person. even though nobody was better off individually. so what should we be doing? what is the fed going to be doing to make sure that as our economy improves, which we all wanted to do quickly, we don't overlook the continuing pain people are feeling because we're looking at averages and not looking beneath those averages? chair powell: these people

chair powell: no. federal legislation creating a path for a backup would be the best solution, we think. rep. sherman:. . thank you now i want to move -- rep. sherman: thank you. now i want to move to something we have talked about before, and that is the system for acquitting wire fraud. when we talked about this earlier this month, usually it is somebody trying to buy a home , the first time ever when they will remit $10,000, $20,000, already thousand dollars for the down payment. they are tricked into wiring the money into the wrong account number, and they lose it forever. you are developing the new fast fed now system, and your bureaucrats have told us that they don't want to engineer that system to avoid this tragedy that affected $150 million just last year. they don't want to do the really simple thing of saying that we remit money once you edify the account number you are sending it to -- once you i done five the account number and the person you are sending it to you. i wonder whether you wil

secretary powell: thank you. david: as we sit in this incredible house, it was thought hundreds of years ago that this association has bought it and now they operated -- operate it. can you imagine how that worked? secretary powell: they did a great job. they have kept the place looking absolutely beautiful. david: i think is probably true. think about this. we have had 200-plus years with men as president of the united states. what if a woman became president? could they be as good a leader? secretary powell: david, that is a sucker question. there's no reason they can't be. we see them moving up, day after day, within the senate, within the house. now we have the vice president of the united states to be. who will say that she will not be president if something happens or she runs for it? we have four-star female generals all over the place. you've got to treat them like they are four stars, not female for stars. we have moved forward in the last 100 years, especially the last 50 years. i remember when i was a

chairman powell: yeah. i think what we see is banks are leaning in to -- they are working with their customers and leaning in to businesses that are -- look like they have good prospects. some of the companies really under a lot of pressure where they may be having a hard time getting credit. mr. stivers: i think that speaks to the fact that as policymakers we have been very reluctant to do targeted relief to economic industries. given the uncertainty recovery, i'm not going to ask you to comment on this because i think it is a question for policymakers, i do believe that we should focus a little more on some targeted relief to some of those industries. that's why i'm a sponsor of the restaurant act and this new gym act and other things in the hospitality, traft, and entertainment industries. i think that would be smart of policymakers moving forward. i want to allow, i don't think i have heard you say it, to comment on the federal reserve's independence. just remind us whether you work for any president or

tester: thank you, chairman powell. chair powell: thank you, senator. sen. brown: thank you, senator tester. senator scott. sen. scott: thank you for being here with us this morning. certainly an important time to engage in the conversation about the future of employment in our nation, and one of the core response abilities of the has to do with employment. there seem to be so few issues right now that actually unite the left and the right. i am away stunned in washington when we find something that unites those sides, and frankly, the minimum wage issue has united both republicans and democrats on opposing having the $15 minimal wage as a part of the covid-19 relief package. it is good to see my friends on the left coming to the conclusion that, in the middle of a pandemic that, according to the congressional budget office, has -- or would shutter another 4.1 million jobs in the middle of a pandemic that has illuminated 10.7 million jobs, this seems to be commonsense from my perspective, from the perspective of democrats and the congressional budget office.

chair powell: sorry. first, let me say that the climate stress scenarios are complete different from the stress tests. it is not the same thing at all. but you really asked about a different question. yes, what was the question that you asked? rep. luetkemeyer: basically come about whether you are weaponizing chokepoints on banks that do not us nearly -- that do not necessarily comply with what your climate agenda maybe. chair powell: we are not climate policy makers. climate policy makers are democratically elected people and those they delegate that authority to. so we are not thinking of it that way. as an institution, we have had a long, reluctance, resistance to engage in the allocation of credit. we think that is for the private sector, and of congress once to allocate credit in particular ways, that is fine. we don't want to get involved in that. it is not some thing we are looking to do. go ahead. rep. luetkemeyer: i would just make the point that we have found during the obama administration that

. >>> federal reserve chair jay powell wrapping up the testimony before the senate banking committee and his words are calming the markets. and this is "the exchange" and the stock averages may be lower, but they are far off of their session lows. at one point the tech-heavy nasdaq was off 4%, and incredible slide for thane t in, but it has recover and nearly biggest loss in a year and half. the biggest bounce back was the chair saying that the fed has its collective back. now to steve liesman with what jay powell said cutting some of the losses. steve? >> hey, brian. yeah, fed chair jay powell addressing the two market concerns of inflation, and yields and making sure that he is not in any hurry to address them with the fed's wide open monetary policy to remain in place while the economy recovers from the pandemic. >> the main thing that we can do is to continue to support the economy and give pitit the suppt that it needs. we are 10 million payroll jobs below the crisis and still a long way to go to the forward recovery and we intend to keep the policy supportive of that recovery.

powell: yes. i think like many people, we are doing what other people are doing, which is trying to learn as much as possible about pandemics, and the spread of covid. we talked to a lot of experts. our staff are very plugged into outside experts. we all read a lot. i think it is just a very different kind of set of data that we are looking at. it is a very broad set of data. and we have been learning. we still have the initial impact in march and april, when the economy was largely shut down. it's at all kind of records for -- it said all kind of records for declining unemployment and -- decline in unemployment and a comic activity. then we had the spike in the west in the summer. many of us were thinking, that will leave a real mark on economic activity. it was much less than expected. in the one in the fall, we expected a spike in the winter, fall, late fall and winter. it's been very large, of course. once again, big parts of the economy have just performed pretty well through that. jobs have

powell takes the seat.om: he's going to have to step lightly. jonathan: i've just had a brilliant message. maybe even tom can start here. it is a picture from home depot of a kids workshop, on march 12. i do think it is a really interesting conversation about the year ahead. how do you engage with the economy over the next 12 month, and how do you do so previously to the last 12 months? tom: we are reframing for the end of a pandemic. lisa: i can't wait to know the parameters for once we have a vaccine going forward. and we deem ask -- can we de- mask? jonathan: let me just weigh in quickly on this market shi ft. i think there is a fear of establishing a two-tiered society. tom: then why get -- lisa: then why get vaccinated? jonathan: that is the problem. as a consequence, they are underselling to vaccine, because if you are telling people if you got a vaccine, you will be able to do x, y, z, it would go way up lisa: there is some science -- go way up. it was way behind this. what we are learning out of isr

i'm grateful to chairman powell. thank you so much for taking the time to talk with me two weeks ago. i look forward to working with you as we work on a recovery for that -- that embraces our whole country, and i especially look forward to working with you and the atlanta fed president raphael bostic to help georgians over the next two years. some have suggested that our covid-19 chat earnings with unemployment, with homelessness and poverty will be solved if we simply lift up -- lift all local restrictions and open up the economy, but since the beginning of this crisis i've heard you stress time and time again and even today as you offered your testimony that the path of the economy you said on one occasion continues to depend significantly on the course of the virus. would you mind elaborating on why this is the case. will the economy fully recover if people don't feel safe and comfortable that the requires is contained. >> i would answer your question in the negative. it would not. you know, actually at the beginn

mr powell's testimony _ that recovery. mr powell's testimony comes - that recovery.congress debates a $1.9 trillion spending package, to help stimulate the american economy although mr powell reiterated the federal reserve's commitment to these accommodative monetary policies, he steered clear of politics, offering no opinions when asked about any fiscal policies that should be lamented by lawmakers. stay with us on bbc news, still to come: the international olympic committee holds a virtual meeting later today to finalise plans for the tokyo 0lympics, but will the games ever get out of the blocks? prince charles has chosen his bride. the prince proposed to lady diana spencer three weeks ago. she accepted, she says, without hesitation. as revolutions go, this had its fair share of bullets. a climax in the night outside the gates of mr marcos�* sanctuary malaca nang — the name itself symbolising one of the cruellest regimes of modern asia. the world's first clone has been produced of an adult mammal. scientists in scotland have produced a sheep called dolly using a ce

jonathan: chairman powell, next week. this from the federal reserve bank, i am not worried about this. he said i am not expecting we will need to respond. tone deaf in the last 48 hours. zachary: thanks for having me back. i can't say whether the fed has been tone deaf. the statement earlier on from powell and priya explained the bond markets. with the investment made and credit are kids, there has been increases but manageable. in terms of tone deaf, pricing risk and the cost of capital and borrowers coming back to the market and in terms of investment grade, there is certainly some element of spread whitening -- widening. in high yield has been the most boring part of credit markets and fixed markets in general. you have probably seen the best returns and global fixed incomes. as we go forward, this is when policy errors can occur. and policy errors lead to market accidents. four credit we are ok, but we can talk about it. -- we are good for credit -- for credit, we are ok but we can talk about it. jonathan: when they l

so powell had a good sense of humor. he serves for, oh, boy, to the early 1970s so he is one of the longer serving african-americans in house history. >> you have to remember when powell came into congress in the mid 1940s there was no large civil rights movement that was happening outside of congress, there was nothing happening, and that doesn't come along until the 1950s with martin luther king and the southern christian leadership conference. so powell is very much the face of civil rights in the u.s. for more than a decade. but then once that movement begins happening outside of congress, as one of his biographers has told us, he begins to compete with it a little bit because he is no longer the face of civil rights. over time his attendance, his behavior becomes a little bit more erratic. the house actually in the late 1960s refuses to seat him, the supreme court rules that he is, in fact, entitled to be seated, but by the late 1960s he has kind of run the course of his career and leaves the house in the early 1970

powell: there could be upward pressure on prices.gain, my expectation would be that that would be neither large nor sustained. we are looking at actual inflation. romaine: embarq, largely -- and look, large inflation seems to be -- everyone knows i'm inflation truther, but you solve bill dudley talking about driving up prices. adding about half a percentage point just because of the way the comparisons shakeup. is there any reason to believe that the long, sustained part that powell is focusing on could be long and sustained if the short-term issues don't really had?-- rear their head? reade: it could be, but that is one of those things we are really not going to know for a while in terms of how the pandemic shakes out and the numbers we are seeing about monthly effects from various prices for various goods and services jumping or falling or whatever it may be. it is going to be hard to see substantial trend until we get past some of these month-to-month drivers, if that makes sense. romaine: yeah, that makes sense. always great to h

we will come to jay powell in a moment. let's look where we are, the asian equity session looking different from the rebound post powell in the u.s., down one point 8% on msci asia-pacific. china under pressure, hong kong under considerable pressure. some stocks are on the move in hong kong, but more broadly as well. european u.s. stock futures driving global rates higher against the federal reserve pledge of continue policy support. hong kong tumbles on stock trading. let's get more on the markets with mark cudmore, our bloomberg's live managing editor. i suppose we start with the asian session as losses are mounting. it is not just a hong kong story and the tax increase. is it more about commodity prices being given free reign to rise as a result of jay powell yesterday? mark: i think you are right, this is a broader story in market. hong kong is leading and it is the catalyst in the short-term. we see a broader picture change in what is leading markets. this comes back to the bond move last week that we have seen the ste

jay powell says the u.s.conomy is a long way from its gold. playing down concern over rising news. global stock straight to the downside. chancellor merkel says germany is in a third wave of the coronavirus as astrazeneca is set to deliver only half the vaccine to the eu as expectations. shares in hong kong stock exchange operators slumped the most since 2015. increased transaction cost. we get the reaction from the city budget this hour. miles to go before i sleep. that's an encapsulation for -- of the message from jay powell. we are not done yet. we are nowhere near scaling back the money stimulus for the market. what caught my eye was basically saying, how much do central banks fear the bond poplar? parenthood and central banking. that will be the theme of this hour. this is what john says. in a way, it's a statement of confidence on the part of the market that we will have a robust and complete recovery, the words of jay powell. good morning. annmarie: definitely a definition tone coming out of jay powell

powell's answer is so true. for all those people who think we can indefinitely spend forever, listen to what powell said himself. he said we need to get a place where what we're stimulate something less than what is organically being generated by the economy. those are not his act words. that is what he said. that is the point, neil. i hope the administration is listening to their own federal chairman. we're saying reopen the economy. get this economy going again organically because the stimulation cannot last indefinitely, for all the people think it can it can't. gary is right. we're seeing price hikes. we're seeing that in gasoline. we're seeing the fed say, no true inflation. i i agree with your point. we're not hyperinflation. we've seen the cracks. we have to deal with that. to powell's point, we got to get organic economy going back again. neil: gary, do you think he is looking at the stock market? if the averages avoid corrections or even go into a bear market, but individual issues like tesla are, then,

if we have to cut it short for powell, i hope you understand.r being with us. >> thank you for having me absolutely understand. >> a lot of metrics to look at here transaction volume i mean, revenue very low leverage ratio the lowest since 2012 could you talk about the moment we are in and how long it will fast if, in fact, the rising rate environment continues >> we are in a pretty exciting moment for the housing market. it started with covid but remote work las accelerated serious changes in the housing market shows up in huge volume of home sales which we benefit from not just in 2020, but strong momentum starting the month of january, for example. and for us it led to a lot of ita delivery on ebidta, debt paydown and staek progress we like the momentum we have public health and macro uncertainties. so we are watching it closely. the low rates we have had have helped and fact that rates are still projected to stay lower compared to historical averages is, obviously, good, but we are all watching, you know, chairman powell's testimony pretty c

tomorrow, democratic lawmakers are expected to press powell to put -- to press powell about the stimuluslan. sonja laud is the cio at legal and general investment. this is a team we have touched on through the morning. we had a conversation yesterday. no one is stopping this barnstorming fiscal policy and there is no break. that is what worries him. there is no break on this supercharged monetary policy. is a good we don't have a break or could the bond markets halt that dynamic? sonja: i think it is good there is no break. if you think about the underlying economic situation, very clearly we are still trying to repair the damage that has arisen from the pandemic. if you were to stop talking about removing fiscal support already or likewise monetary support, you would see a lot of uncertainty rising when we are still in the past towards opening up and normalcy. from that angle right now, this is absolutely appropriate. clearly, the u.s. has the best combination right now in terms of the size of fiscal alongside the very supportive fed and as such it will be the u.s. most likely to reach

that is powell's testimony. danger of major league inflation. this burst of spending will not create inflation, not necessarily create inflation. what do you say to that? >> how do you finance this massive spending? $1 trillion of unspent money and previous packages spent, this $2 trillion package coming down the pike will be passed in the next few weeks so how the treasury department financing? the federal reserve has to buy tens of those which increases the money supply which means inflation. the federal reserve has the idea you can control inflation with a light switch or turn it on and off, that's not how the real world works. once this starts to go it is hard to stop and the way the federal reserve sees the world, the only way to slow down inflation is by slowing down the economy. it is not a baseball pitch but a crazy idea, if you want growth you have to have inflation, low inflation, high unemployment. it is a bogus theory but the fed worships it so inflation starts to rise. what is powell going to do? sl

we await jerry powell's testimony.hardson is the adp chief economist. thank you so much for the time it's great to see you both >> thanks for being here >> stephen, i talk about the rain picture there is a story crossing the wire now j.p. morgan is cutting market effects to market weight because of the rising yield story in the u.s. is the picture changing air play book at all? >> well, look, the u.s. is borrowing a lot and having a higher inflation target, which chair powell downplayed somewhat and luckily he is aware of these things in his testimony yesterday. all of this will probably weaken the u.s. dollar in time. but we've got a tremendous amount of consensus positioning that's underweight the u.s. dollar and the fact that we're seeing, for example, europe push back on sovereignty yields rising the ecb likely to do more. i haven't heard the federal reserve talking about stepping up the qe from 120 billion a month while the biden administration pushes through a record large stimulus. so it's very possible we are i

federal reserve chairman jerome powell says his country's economic recovery remains an event and far from complete his comments during testimony to the u.s. senate banking committee were in contrast to the increasing optimism among many analysts who believe the u.s. economy will grow rapidly this year they expect progress in combat in the pandemic and that government stimulus will lift the economy powell said monetary policy still needs to be deployed to support the economy until it is fully healed he also downplayed concerns about rising long term interest rates and higher inflation that could come if there is strong growth later this year. our financial correspondent joins us now from new york hence do you think powell managed to effectively alley fears that the fed stimulus measures are going to push up prices. the fed chair definitely did downplay any inflation concern said had been coming up in the past couple of days i mean overall yes we do see some prices some increasing commodity prices for incident in the biden administration is also looking to increase the minimum wage fro

investors can thank powell for the turn around.he bank is committed to the current accommodative policy we'll see if he echoes those comments today powell's statement easing pressure in the bond market, currently the yield on the 10-year benchmark, that near term trend higher for markets in terms of treasury yields is something to keep an eye on as we watch these trades play out continuing to watch the action in shares of tesla negative on the year, despite bouncing back from a 13% loss at one point in trading yesterday one investor and long time tesla bull, kathy wood scooping up $120 million worth of stock during yesterday's selloff and subsequent bounce back and it's not just tesla. wood also out with comments on bitcoin saying she's positive on the crypto and happy to see a healthy correction in it bitcoin back above the 50,000 mark 50,921, an 8% rise over the last six months a 330% gain on coin metrics. let's go worldwide, the asian trade generally negative outsized losses in the shanghai composite and the hang seng on the chi

chairman, chairman powell it's good to have you here. i was looking at the chart and noticing since the first of february the one-month rates have dropped in half from .06 today 2003 from .072.02 we are getting in the realm of negative rates that we saw briefly a year ago in march. i just wanted to get your thoughts on that is there any issues of collateral, what is driving this as you're watching the short-term rates approaching 0 question my. >> with those in particular this would be a treasury issue is a lot of demand for short-term and a lot of equity and people want to store in bills and demand and that drives down the rates that people are being paid or receiving for buying the aspects engine assets. our policy rate at the federal funds rate and to the extent that there would be downward pressure shrinking in size and we have tools that we can use to keep that rate in a policy and are intended policy range and we will do that and that should also limit the extent to which other money market instruments would go even lower or perhap

jay powell says the u.s. market remains a long way from full recovery and called on lawmakers and the private sector to support workers. this comes amid the ongoing to play over in -- debate over inflation. the head of allocations and macro research joins us. a nascent cpi but are you convinced? pimco saying there will not be any inflation. larry summers is worried they could run hot. you see a temporary spike. when will that, and what does that mean to the market? good morning. >> good morning. it will mean a threat regarding change in inflation. we are in a disinflationary environment as indicated so there is a long run which started in the early 1980's. what we have to think about is a regime change regarding from disinflation to a re-inflationary environment. this is what it is in markets. and then we have to discriminate what is an inflation spike and a regime shift. it's two different things and what could be a concern for markets? is not a's bark but a regime shift. if that is the case, the impact on a

jay powell signals no change in policy. bitcoin slides back from the $50,000 threshold as investors bail on risky assets. the fall is heading tesla's elon musk in the pocket. softbank widens interest further with a new focus on biotech and health. the biotech index has risen 37% in the past year. haidi: we have some breaking news crossing the bloomberg and it comes to singapore and earnings. we have ocbc numbers coming through for the fourth quarter, and also looking ahead for the full year numbers as well. taking a look at noninterest income coming in at just over one billion sing dollars. fourth-quarter net income there, really beating expectations, given expectations were just under one billion. and we have seen a beat of 1.13 billion for net income, looking like it is better than expectations, if just marginally. fourth-quarter recovery is what we were looking for as we are looking for revisions for ocbc still remaining elevated. that beat on the fourth quarter will be very much welcomed. we are also look at some -- als

you have powell. our guest is still with us.ernor bailey saying he's not worried about inflation. the united kingdom is going to be open for business once again. that's june funny first. we will see spikes of inflation. do you maintain that the bank of england still holds the line? kiran: yes. it is similar to what we talked about in the united states. powell framed it in a good way. there's inflation rates and then there's inflation. there's a big difference between the two. the inflation rates this year will be much higher. i would be surprised if there's not some significant inflation and restaurant booking prices on june 22, for example. whether that leads to a sustained rise in prices and that inflation wage spiral, we don't really see reason for so much concern. remember going into the pandemic, what was happening was central banks were at full employment. the central banks were cutting rates or thinking about how they could stimulate the economy to try to generate inflation. we don't see a reason why the picture in 2022 s

let's start with that one little line from chairman powell. the run up to bond yields is -- of confidence. do you agree with that? >> for now, yes. huge fiscal stimulus, huge monetary stimulus. it is not surprising giving the issuance coming in. tom: your colleague has talked about the challenges of working in zero bound. i think we are creeping away from zero bound. however is it for the investment community to get back to normal where we can actually calculate a sharp ratio. can we sustain this artificiality we are in or do you have to get back to some grin different. rebecca: we like to think we can find opportunities regardless of the economic environment we are in. but certainly a lot of investors are thrilled. that could get some income in return in the way decades ago. i don't think we will get to that place anytime soon. as you talked about, chairman powell has made very clear he is not unhappy with rising bond yields for now, he is very happy to see inflation coming back. we want to be watching this this year, do we get an inflation s

chairman powell, it's good to have you here. i was being looking at the t-bill chart and noticed since the first of february the one-month rates have dropped in half from .06 to today .03 and two months from .07 to .02 we are starting to get into the realm of possibly negative rate which is we saw, of course, briefly a year ago, march. i just want to get your thoughts on that. is there any issues here of shorted collateral what's -- what's driving this as you're watching some of these short-term rates approaching zero >> so with t-bills in particular this would really be a treasury issue, but i would say, you know, it's a lot of demand for short-term -- there's a lot of liquidity and people want to store it to some extent in t-bills and there's demand and it drives it down toward the rates that people are getting paid or receiving for buying those assets from our standpoint, we control our policy rate is the federal funds rate and to the extent there were to be downward pressure that because for example, the treasury general acc

chairman powell, i'd like to shift gear force a minute. yesterday, treasure secretary yellen talked about the fed and changing technology. something she said - >> senate banking clearly needs to do a little touchup on the technologies continues to be a little troublesome at large, the hearing does have powell calming the fears of rising inflation a bit of a discussion about budget deficits. he does point out that he has no intention of repeating the inflation with the states of the 1970s, but the time to think about budget deficits is not now. >> yeah. i think some questions there specifically that delve into economics and the question of deficits trying to avoid talking about specific bills here. but sheer chairman powell speaking again >> the efforts to create their own quasi-money type of instruments. so there are significant both technical and policy questions to do with how we would go about doing that and i would say that we're committed to solving the technology problems and consulting very broadly with the public and very transpare

just how tough is this job for chairman powell right now? julian: we will say this, at least he doesn't have a boss who is harassing him in the public domain, so he's got that going for him. [laughter] look, it has been a difficult job for the last four years. we are in extraordinary financial and monetary circumstances, and as we saw earlier in the decade, it was very difficult. it took longer than expected. that is likely going to be the case again. jonathan: to be fair, if we have chairman powell version 2.0, i don't think his boss would be going at him in the same way. this is a very different federal reserve chair. good to catch up, sir. julian emanuel there, btig chief equity and derivatives strategist. it is remarkable. do you remember the chairman at the end of 2018 when we had the massive market row? you and i were at the economic club address. that period was so interesting. we haven't reached the neutral rate. we are far away from it. this is when unemployment could have gone a whole lot lower. the lessons they are applying -- the

what will you listen for from chairman powell, john?n: well i don't feel we are going to hear anything new. the fed is encouraging a higher inflation rate. they have already said the pickup in inflation they expect to see in march and april has been, to use jon's affect -- transitory -- word earlier, a transitory effect. how to deal with inflation problems requires tender policy and the fed is rather constrained with a fear of even thinking about tapering. i think they have pretty much signaled they would continue buying bonds at 120 a month for the rest of the year. tom: you have a very sharp paragraph and it is a new word we are going to introduce now -- the over-calibration of fiscal policy. what you mean by that, john? john: as i was running that piece, as i was putting the finishing touches on it, to have the -- you reported on from larry summers, the same point, the cbo, the congressional budget office, says there is a gap of $400 billion or so between actual gdp and potential gdp. that is the potential the economy can produce on

powell sleeps great at night.s up more than double the national average, doesn't see gas prices, lumber prices up, home depot prices through the roof. i think inflation is something to be concerned about. we have an inflation rotation going on in nature get. the reddit day trading crowd have never seen this. they should be worried about rising yields. that's going to kill tech stocks in this market and high multiple names. maria: you made an important point when you said listening to the market, what's the message of the market. the message of the market right now is what? you've got rates moving up. that's the message of the market no matter what jay powell says. >> right. right. you can spin it as a statement of confidence or you could spin it as inflation concerns in the future. sometimes the bond people are smarter than the stock people. you see it in the market. you see a temper tantrum going on. the market is worried. it's great for banks, steeper yield curve, it's great. terrible for retirees. they can't ea

on chairman powell, what changed? who is this guy?ecause this does not sound like the chairman powell from a couple of years ago. i understand we've been through a massive pandemic, but they are on the same page now, aren't they? you've got to run the labor market hot. chair yellen talked about it. chair powell suddenly realized, the light switch has gone on. i think we have to talk about this. i've been talking to people who agree with what i have to say, that chairman powell is a political animal looking for a second term. that speech yesterday spoke to that. that's the chairman looking for a second term. the issue here, there are many market participants that do not think that this fed will follow through on what is said when inflation picks up. why? because the leader of this federal reserve did something different last time around. not many people buy it. lisa: in other words, people are saying the federal reserve is going to be forced to hike rates faster than they say because they are not going to let inflation run as hot as pe

whereas dawson, is very behind the scenes, powell is out front. talking to the media pushing again segregation practices, in the house restaurant. in the press gallery -- accreditation of american reporters he's constantly pushing the envelope there is a great story that we have covered in our book black americans in congress, were sam rayburn, the revered longtime speaker of the house, from texas as a conversation with powell, when he first comes in. and, the gist of it is, freshman, listen, quietly and learn. don't go causing a ruckus. you can imagine, palace new yorker from harlem listening to this, texan from bottom texas, explain to him the ways of the house. and paul looked at him and said mister speaker, i have a bomb in both hands. i'm ready to hurl them. so. we had a great relationship with rayburn. according to rayburn's account afterwards. and, but he is constantly pressing the envelope, on the house. he gets on to the education labor committee, very influential committee. particularly by the 19 sixties, when we go through a reform peri

for jerome powell.s is bloomberg. ♪ jon: from new york city, this is "bloomberg surveillance" for our audience worldwide. five-day losing streak, downed .5% on the s&p and the nasdaq is getting hammered. on another three points today. high real yields over the last couple weeks starting to pick up into the valuation story. the growth story is clear. when you start to price in more growth, what happens to growth equities? valuation goes down. this is where things get interesting. who blinks first? president lagarde at the ecb, she blinks first. what have we seen them the last couple weeks? not just u.s. treasury yields glowing -- growing higher but yields with it. there's a fiscal plan on the table but not in germany or europe, in the united states. they don't want high yields, they will not see there from the fiscal stimulus, so what happened yesterday, some verbal intervention. yields up in germany by four basis points, and this rate is really important with what happens to foreign from here. euro-doll

of course wall street just not convinced that powell can pull it off.organ chase chief economist anthony chan and bank of new york mellon investment chief investment strategist alicia levine. anthony, seems the market wants the fed to be even more aggressive before they lose this chance to -- rates are erupting and i think wall street is unconvinced that powell can tamp them down at a certain point. what are your thoughts? >> well i think that, you're spot on, charles, the economy is recovering and as the federal reserve continues to throw in $1.4 trillion worth of liquidity every single year, we know that with an economy that continues to grow we will see long-term interest rates moving higher. now of course they can get ambitious and try to do yield curve control to try to tamp down those long-term interest rates so far they don't feel that the upward pressure on those long-term interest rates like the 10 year treasury is still threatening enough that it will cause a problem for this on going economic recovery. charles: right. alicia, what do you thin

finally, powell reiterate. continues to study digital currency courtney >> steve, obviously went through a lot of topics from things like bitcoin to a fiscal relief package but what do you think the biggest risk is that powell is concerned about here? >> you know, clearly when you put all of the issues that are in front of the fed chair when it comes to the u.s. and the global economy, it's not inflation. it's not higher bond yields. it's the pandemic solving the pandemic he did say he had seen some better numbers recently and was glad to see what he saw relative to vaccinations but it's clear the pandemic in the first order and the second order, it's the residual impact or the, what's left over the payments left over, even after we recover. in fact, there were many questions where they tried to say, hey, is the policy too loose but every time, powell came back with one number. we're 10 million jobs short. that's the biggest risk to the economy. >> speaking of jobs, i know that he was asked about women that hav

dovish remarks from powell.uture markets are seeing the fed raising rates in late 2023 whether rbs -- in late 2023. shery: let's turn to the latest on the whereabouts of the billionaire cofounder of alibaba, jack ma. he has been spotted playing golf after weeks out of public view. su keenan us with the latest. we are now hearing that ma has been at a secluded resort on the chinese island. su: that's a far -- [inaudible] that's a far cry from the concerns he was in jail or house arrest. bloomberg has learned the embattled billionaire jack ma has been teeing off, playing golf and sun valley golf resort he was last seen in a video chat on january 20. that seemed to reduce fears of what was being thought of as a worst-case scenario, that he fled to singapore, has his assets seized or even worse, that he had somehow been imprisoned in a high security facility. it went a long way to help relieve investors we saw the stock edge up 1.5% in new york trading. again, there had been continued speculation about ma's standing

we had powell on the hill.e had people talk about inflation but still no signs of it actually happening. what would you say is the most important thing you learned or maybe the market learned about the current stance of fed spread ? >> for me, this is really an opportunity. we are at a moment for powell to really solidify the reaction function. he is on the hill to educate lawmakers about what that means, and it is also a message to the markets, a reminder to the markets, we are going to be rat -- reacting differently, holding the line. we are waiting until we see actual inflation. we are not going to be preemptive. you guys can guess, but i want to see the proof in the putting before we calibrate policies. i think it is not a new message -- it is what he has been saying -- but we are at an inflection point. the market has been seeing the turning point in the economy and wanting to run that and also try to guess what the fed is going to do in applying its old reaction function, and powell just, nope. romaine: h

our view is we are in a long term secular bull market we heard jay powell today.as his foot on the gas. i would say equities over bonds and i would be positioned in a barbell of invoation and cyclicalities. which are going to be most exposed to gdp, which i think we see rising this year and next. >> which we are seeing are you surprisedance tashia the market didn't react more we did see a turn after -- both in bonds and stocks after powell did make it clear he was still dovish, not seeing higher rates, not thinking about raperin asset purchases. are you surprised there wasn't more of an impact today given the kerps concerns about higher rates? >> yeah. we had seen yields rise significantly. we have seen some of the broader up desese pause their performance and have seen some distinct selling in some of the higher data parts of the market. this to be expected. any time office quick move in interest rates the markets tend to react overall the markets tend to respond positively to higher rates. consider why the rates are rising they are not rising because jay powell

you mentioned fed chair jay powell speaking in front of the senate. want to recommend everyone read the column from bloomberg opinion, where he talks about the fed as a parent and capital markets as toddlers, and trying to assess how to manage their tantrums while trying to gear them towards independence. anyway, i will recommend that. 10:00 a.m., we are getting u.s. february confidence data, as well as fed manufacturing data out of richmond. interesting to see whether we continue to see any grinding higher in the data, or whether this is a hope trade when it comes to reflation. at 2:30 p.m., we hear from the man who was on the hotseat last week in front of congress, vladimir 10 if -- vladimir tenev, robinhood ceo, under increased scrutiny from regulators, as well as others in the capital markets. jonathan: he has struggled to communicate in the last couple of weeks in a major way. in a major way. you've struggled to commute kate for the last 10 years -- communicate for the last 10 years. tom: yeah, ok. jonathan: you wonder whether he is the mentor ti

jay powell very dovish i think that has something to do with it. dow up 14.nt to start again with a theme. there is an economic boom being spurred on by the promising developments in the fight against covid-19. it is a story

fed chair jay powell testifying on capitol hill.rom new york city, this is bloomberg. ♪ jonathan: this is "bloomberg real yield." it is time for the final spread. you will hear from janet yellen on monday, then a ton of fed speakers through the week. fed chair jay powell testifies tuesday and wednesday. we have representatives planning to vote on president biden's fiscal stimulus package. back with us. let's go straight to the testimony with chairman powell. what are you looking for? >> more of the same. you know, i think that the fed consistently -- if there has ever been a time when there has been unanimity between all the different governors and fed presidents, it is now. they all seem to be singing the same tune. i think they will be focused on employment, inflation, and they are not going to really be focused on transient move in the stock market or the sort of selloff we have seen in the bond market. their focus is going to be fair and square on inflation and employment. jonathan: i sense you think there may be subtle shifts.

today, jay powell testified before the senate.spoke about how the fed would handle rising prices. >> inflation will probably be volatile over the next year due to significant -- particular things with the pandemic. i do not expect that will be a situation where inflation rises to troubling levels. if it does turn out that unwanted inflation pressures arise and they are persistent, we have the tools to deal with that. >> joining us now is ira jersey. what -- did anything surprise you from jay powell today? >> not much. he did give details, two of the interesting things he said is that he is not worried if -- yields get negative, something that has been talked about a lot with the treasury department, reducing the tables necessary. the other is, he is not worried about the steepening of the yield curve. yields of 10 year and 30 year bonds going up faster than the five-year note or the two year note, which is probably not going anywhere at all. those two things together were a little surprising. there had been talked that if yields g

tomorrow, we have jerome powell speaking.e already had jerome powell speaking in previous weeks, reiterating the messages. it will be key to see them doubling down on that message. while the outlook is looking better, the economy is far from on strong enough footing for them to ease back. if markets still continue to price in or accelerate too fast, it is likely we might see more tools come into play. jon: this is the issue at the moment. a couple weeks ago if you had asked me if chairman powell would say, stay on script, there was a struggle to break through 1.30. tom: the one person i am watching this week is richard clarida, head of columbia economics, one of our great academics on monetary theory. if there is one person who is going to say one sentence, it is going to be richard clarida. jon: he has provided guidance over the last couple years. they be chairman powell has fumbled things a little bit. diana, do you have a number in mind that starts to affect elsewhere? is there something higher or are we there? diana: i th