the other two are chairman powell, who is currently the chairman. he's been nominated by president biden to another term as chairman and philip jefferson, who has also been nominated by president biden. i think he would be the second african american man, maybe in the history of the fed. maybe not positive of that, but i think so. it makes a lot of sense to go to them because there's overwhelming support for them. in fact, in the committee, chairman powell, i think, was reported out successfully on a vote in which i think there was only one vote in opposition to chairman powell -- overwhemgly supported in the committee and i think very likely would be overwhelmingly supported on the floor. mr. jefferson was unanimously reported out of the committee. in other words, every single republican and democrat on the banking committee supported mr. jefferson. my point is i think we should set up the vote. we don't have to have the vote right this minute, but we should set it up and do it soon. i have a unanimous consent request identical to the unanimous con

kriti: that was christine lagarde and jerome powell.e are going to bring you that conference as we learn more but for now, michael mckee is joining me. we heard comments about what jerome powell in particular said , that he supports moving more quickly and frontloading those hikes at a time the market is pricing in a three 50 basis point move. >> he did not endorse the move. he all but said they are going to do 50, then see what happens. but he did not push back against the idea either. i think the fed at this point is willing to let them go there. the markets will price in, and that may be -- that may have a slowing effect and they can take a look around once they get there. kriti: another thing that stood out is what president lagarde said. she said the european recovery stalled to a great degree. i do not think that comes a surprise, as the war in ukraine has more seriously hit europe and the u.s. i am wondering how long they can prolong that until they get hit hard. >> the longer the war goes, the worse it gets. particularly if they

let's get back to fed chair jay powell. he did not just open the door, he all but walked through it. kathleen hays, why is powell being so explicit? >> well, first of all, this is not a complete surprise. he seems to have mentioned the possibility of it in the past. the difference is that we are so close to the may meeting. other fed officials have talked about 50 basis point hikes. let's listen to exactly what he said at an imf panel that included christine lagarde, head of the ecb. >> it is appropriate in my view to be moving more quickly. i also think there is something in the idea of front end loading whatever accommodation one thinks is appropriate, so that points in the direction of 50 basis points being on the table. we make these decisions at the meeting and we will make the meeting by meeting, but i would say 50 would be on the table for the may meeting. >> i have been hearing in talking with -- and talking with my print reporter colleagues and they say this is an explicit endorsement of a 50 basis point rate hike

enda curran has more on powell's latest comments. david english gets us current on the chinese market and maria tadeo with the latest on the ground in ukraine and francine lacqua is looking ahead to the french election this weekend. dani: let's start with fed chair jay powell who appears to be heartening his hawkish pivot. he is potentially endorsing two or more half-point rate hikes. let's go to enda curran for more , this seems like perhaps the most clear path to tightening that powell has laid out to date. enda: he more or less confirmed a 50 basis point in may, but he said there is a case for frontloading which people have interpreted as saying they might go by another 50 in june as well. we have had action this morning with nomura coming out with a note that they say they expect the fed to go by 75 in june and july. the whole fed conversation is now focusing on frontloading a very aggressive rate hiking cycle which is prompting warnings of a u.s. recession. manus: maybe he would be foolish not to jump through the 50 basis point

powell's remarks are were released around 1:00 eastern. there's the dow jones industrials, a loss of 358. fresh loss for the s&p, down 65, and for the nasdaq, i'm checking these in realtime, the new low down 287. the fed funds futures are now pricing in a 98 chance of a 50 basis point hike on a may 4 and are bet on the same for the two meetings after that. we've got major developments in tesla and twitter, can you hear the tesla short sellers rolling over at this hour? look at the stock, it's up 2%. once again, anyone who bet against the ev leader watching as elon musk defies the naysayers. tesla not only beat on the bottom line, it posted record quarterly revenue growth of 87% year-over-year. it also said vehicle production will grow 60% this year. take a look at shares of twitter. twitter flat at the moment, you know, a few minutes ago it was up, and before that it was down. it's having trouble punching back and staying in the green. musk says he now has commitments for $46.5 billion in financing for his bid to buy the social media compa

charles: all right, so yesterday , fed chairman powell was seriously the chatter box.lks, it was the designated designed to beat this market down and guess what it worked. but will the bite match the bark and what's the deal with this economy, i'll bring in manual life investment management senior managing director francis donald and francis, listen. jay powell says he wants to navigate a soft landing at the same time, he also admits that we need to see progress on inflation, not make assumptions which i think is a little bit different than in the past when they said okay, you know, it's sort of they knew where the ball was going and used that football analogy, and so within thing we know is that the problem here is that the policy impacts always lag. to me that seems like a recipe for a hard landing once they start to get these signals, maybe the hard landing will already be in place. your thoughts? >> history is not on the federal reserve's side here, much harder for them historical ly to orchestrate that soft landing. remember we're heading into an environment where

are you in sync with chairman powell's position? he stated it a couple of times a couple days ago, you watched that. would you say you're pretty well in sync with his analysis or his assessment of climate and where it belongs in your mandatesesome. >> yes, senator. thanks for the question. yes, i am. >> so he said that to the degree it fits within your mandates, climate is one of many factors, basically. they're important but a very narrow one. so how is it that you get so much more -- now i'm asking you to analyze yourself or your supporters, but i'm rying to reconcile -- trying to reconcile while so many -- why so many of our friends on the other side of the aisle think they're you're -- think you're wonderful on climate but they're not going to support chairman pol for the same reasons -- powell for the same reasons. do you have any thoughts or theories on why that might be? >> you know, we do operate within our statutory mandates, and we talk a lot about what those are and what those mean. so i thinkly speaking those are the --

it was a pretty hawkish view, i would say, from chair powell what do you think? >> absolutely, sara. and i think he's continued down this path pretty steadfast, really, in almost all of his commentary, whether it was in the testimony he has given on his renomination, whether at the press conferences. jay has presented a particularly hawkish view that has continued to stay there, and if not, grow even more hawkish as time has gone on through most of this year and i think that markets have kind of tried to shrug it off here and there, but it's coming. and it's probably going to hurt a little bit >> it's coming, and it's still moving markets, alicia, the ten-year note yield jumping past 2.90, and stocks are under pressure the nasdaq is getting hit again. so as long as the fed is in this mode of very strongly fighting inflation, tightening policy, and talking up their moves, can the markets find a bottom? >> so thanks, sara i thought you did a great job this afternoon on that interview. really interesting a couple things. you want to think about this cycle really wit

we'll hear from fed powell jay powell in a few minutes, live. speaking at imf, quizzed by our own sara eisen markets expecting he'll solidify the case for yield in may. popping up, can the ten year be far behind what's it mean for mortgage rates and hear what the fed has to say in a couple moments. >>> plus, another one bites the dust a major streaming change, and word is cnn plus is shutting down after a month of launch shares of warner brothers sinking. and "the exchange" gets you ready for the markets. dom chu has the markets. >> green solidly so earlier this morning. we talked about it knthis mornig in the red not a lot. the fact we are in red territory although marginally may be signaling something about a little bit of a sentiment now given a nice short-term bull run we've seen dow jones industrial down 2 points flat on the session just about but solidly higher at one point today. s&p off one-half of 1% 20 points there. nasdaq, 13,344 down 109 points big reversal there and nasdaq trade down three quarters of 1%. highlight now an interestin

are you in sync with chairman powell's position? and he stated it a km of couple of times, a couple of days ago. are you in sync with his analysis or his assessment of climate and where it belongs in the mandates? >> thank you for question, yes, i am. >> so he said to the degree it fits within your mandates, climate is one of many factors, basically, and they're important, but a very narrow one. >> so how is it that you get so much more-- now i'm asking you to analyze yourself, your support of it. i'm trying to see why so many of our friends on the other side of the aisle think you're wonderful on climate, but not going to support chairman powell for some of the same reasons. how can i reconcile that in my mind. i'm not asking you to be my psychologist, but do you have any thoughts and theories why that might be? >> we do operate within our statutory mandates and we talk a lot about what those are and what those mean, so, i think generally speaking, those are the guardrails that we operate within, you know, i do try to be awar of em

chairman powell cannot do the fluffy guide in that press conference. jonathan: i think people try. most of wall street is on board with the idea that we get another 50 basis point hike after that. deeper into summer, a series of year-over-year inflation prints should be decelerating. i wonder how they internalize that, respond to it. the ultimate question is whether they are willing to accept a longer period of above target inflation. they are not going to tell you that, but how they behave will be suggestive of what their will to tolerate for the rest of the year. tom: philip lane did not want to go there in the last hour. we will get into this with katrina dudley. this idea of central bankers accepting 3%, inflation metrics? i'm not there yet. jonathan: the ecb right now has a tougher job than the federal reserve. tom: 120 oil is a different world. we are at 109.35. jonathan: watch the second round effects, watch what happens in germany. it is easy to say from a policy perspective that you can strip out energy and food. when you get to wage negotiations and they start to go to 8%

what did we hear from chair powell today? >> he was speaking at an imf event along with christine lagarde the head of the ecb and other monetary officials. this was not a long speech. it was basically one long paragraph that signaled he is on board with the basis points. what's listen. >> it is appropriate in my view to move more quickly and i think there is something in the idea of front end loading whatever accommodation one thinks is appropriate. that points in the direction of 50 basis points being on the table. we make these decisions at the meeting and we will make them meeting by meeting, but i think 50 basis points will be on the table for the may meeting. >> a lot of people are saying this is all but a done deal. we shouldn't be too surprised, because other fed officials saying it could be appropriate. even saying they are on board. the chair of the st. louis fed said more and more we should do it or they are hoping that they will do it. another issue is he talked about frontloading rate hikes, how that could be a go

tk, chairman powell and president lagarde coming up. tom: it will be interesting to see with the central banks do and this will be in the central bank and imf meetings as well. but i would suggest there is a firm and under all of this including resilient equity. you have to tell me what to do with a resilient 10 year yield. it is unchanged and skate lagarde and powell phase. jon: moving the bar -- bond market so far this year and big moves in the equity market. esa numbers from tesla after the close yesterday including united airlines. earnings has been tremendous. united airlines up 7.5%. kirby, who we will catch up later this morning with -- with later this morning, -- tom: that a sector dissector after the netflix debacle yesterday. our guest at world headquarters yesterday and he makes clear it is single digit it is pretty good single-digit earnings growth. what is wrong with that? jon: yields higher, 10 year yields up 287 on the tenure. it is not just the u.s. treasury market reacting, it is the german bond market leading with an e

and here is where powell gets his break.force in american retail it is also been a disruptive force in the labor market with its incredibly aggressive hiring taking from all over the country. they've made in part the labor so tight if the company now has too many people, that could relieve a ton of the tightness in the labor market, meaning a peak in wage inflation. amazon has to think there is a hiring peak and that could be a very big deal for the fed. you you never want to celebrate layoffs and employees over the country can't find enough staff. if big companies lay people off there is a new pool of available talent talent because omicron is no longer a threat. a lot of people call it the great resignation. maybe we should call it the great duplication because it is exactly what companies like amazon needed to get through the worst days of the pandemic i always like to root for the workers, by the way. i was a member of a two different unions but if we see more layoffs that means fed won't have to raise interest rates as

again, it's not jay powell's fault.e the price of avocados, and he can't do this and create more of them or bring the price down some price also stabilize if he moves as rapidly as i want him to next week but even if he had done that a few months ago, my garbage bill would not have gone from $300 to $400 a bill. every insurance bill couldn't jump 20% huge jumps but can jay force the big independent oil producers in texas to be so dismined and drill recklessly again that's the only way to make the price of crude go down butter, gasoline, avocado, these are the real world price increases that regular people have to deal with. so blame powell for some wage inflation and commodity inflation, just not for the most obvious contributors, because these are all about supply change disruptions or geopolitics or frankly, who knows what all stuff that is clearly beyond jay powell's control i like to say there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to try to find it just for you right here on "mad money. i'm jim cramer see y

powell saying the market is too hot, the fed will cool it down, how do you do that? aggressive rate hikes. saying repeatedly on bloomberg television if you wait too long will have to move faster. now if you get too aggressive you may cause a recession. a bloomberg opinion columnist making the same point. let's also assume that this has to the fed not wanting to surprised the market. if is anyone there will be surprised by 50 basis point hike, the only thing that would surprise them now is the 75 basis point hike right away. they have had -- 50 basis points come you have the bet on it. >> to add to the hawkish nest, and the hawkish nest -- hawkishness from the boe. rising is only way up now. >> the only way is probably up for at least, they be the next little while. i actually think we are getting to a very interesting point. we have the end of the month coming up next week. that might see some thing of a pullback. that often happens. it might be a liberal hard to notice, but something of a loss of -- it might be a little hard to notice something of a loss of momentum

powell reiterated goal to get a soft landings. this is possible, former fed advisor danielle dimartino booth and former white house chief economist joe lavorgna. danielle, is a soft landing out of the question? here's the thing, if not a soft landing can we at least get a bumpy landing? >> that would have to be a lot of bumps. i had a plane that was diverted and we flu through a hailstorm. it might be a bit like that. back in 20072007 with ben bernanke's assurances, subprime ticking time bomb would be contained that wasn't how it ended up occurring. we've got more leverage in the system today than we did then, especially with corporate america, sovereign debt what have you and inflation is extremely problematic. engineering a hard landing is that much more difficult -- charles: soft landing. >> because the fed has fewer options it can't stop short tightening when the markets priced as much as they priced in without losing all credibility. charles: right. >> look, it is jay powell's job to say we're going to have a soft landing. he

problematic, in certain ways, as sydney powell. that we saw a lot of republicans and even some of those who ended up in the right place, in those key days, when donald trump may be, if the party had said to him on november 8th, 9th, or 10th that he lost, there is nowhere to go with this -- maybe then he would've had a different outcome. it seemed like a lot of people even though who ended up in the right place, in those crucial early days, telling trump that maybe there was widespread fraud and that he should mount legal challenges even though there was no real evidence out there. >> one thing that neither one of them say in their texts is that there are no rules in war. that is what clarence thomas's wife said to mark meadows. she was clearly advocating criminal acts, whatever you want to do, break any law. >> yes. >> these guys were never advocating breaking any laws. >> correct. that's an important distinction for sure. i don't want to put them totally in the same bucket with ginni thomas, who is also espousing all kinds of craz

aside from powell, earnings are dumping hail on the equities outlook. less than 20% of the s&p ceos have reported earnings, but 3 out of the last 8 hours are not burnishing the quarterly picture. why we picked these names, well, dow component verizon is falling about 5.3 3% after the ceo gave a down beat annual profit pore cast and said these are levels of inflation we've never seen before in the wireless industry. and he also said it's really hard to predict how the cell phone carriers can adapt to that. keep in mind, verizon's still paying out a 4.7% dividend. it should be more attractive ott a day like this. gap. even $240 yeezy gap hoodies can't help. quarter sales will be down 10%. the ceo of its old navy division departing as the lower priced retailer has not been able to capitalize on bargain-focused customers, and the company will be forced to start discounting merchandise. hba, you'd think hospitals would do well with covid cases still growing, but hca health care shares down 22% a after of the hospital operator cut forecasts due to inflation a

cnn's rene marsh visited lake powell and found state and federal officials taking drastic measures tolowing, and the lights on. >> reporter: this is lake powell -- the country's second largest reservoir and it is drying up. satellite images and cnn video from 2015, versus now, shows just how much water has vanished. piles of rock also tell the story. >> this rain we see on the canyon walls, they call it the bathtub ring. that's where the water has leached out the iron from the rock. >> and that's how high the water was. >> that is how high the water was at one point. >> you said, just since september, the water was just 4 feet above this ledge that we are looking at here and that is just september. >> right. >> so the water is dropping quite dramatically, quite quickly. >> it has. >> reporter: as water levels decline, so do power production at glen canyon dam, which harnesses the force and volume of the colorado river and lake powell to generate power for as many as 5.8 million homes and businesses in seven states. >> we are knocking on the door of judgment day, i think. judgment day,

as well they should have been as powell's cracking amounted to nothing. days later, the trump campaign cut ties with her but mike lee said give me something to work with. i need to know what i should be saying. please, tell me what i should be saying. in the absence of talking points to justify stealing an election, lee and roy started pushing attorney john eastman but by december, texts showed both starting to realize they made a huge mistake. on new year's eve roy warned the president should call everyone off. it's the only path if we substitute the will of states through electors with a vote by congress every four years, we have destroyed the electoral college. the next day he added potus allows this to occur, we're driving a stake in the heart of the federal republic. lee argued this will end badly for the president unless the constitution is on our side and we have trump electors pursuant to state law, we do not. in the end with the doubts in play, neither objected to the result. josh hawley and rafael the canadian cruise led that charge but the text

early on, sidney powell, she's a straight shooter.ell was having a hard time getting to the president because some in the white house were saying keep her away. she does not have a real legal case. she's making this up. people around trump were trying to protect him from her. when they were losing in the courts he was saying, let her in. >> this is a huge deal that this senator who has long prided himself as being, you know, a defender of the constitution, was encouraging access to the president, saying that he should have -- this lawyer who clearly had no evidence of fraud should have access to him, that alternative slate of electors should be sent to congress? that's contrary to the law. also the fact that this is exactly -- that exact gambit is what election law experts are concerned about happening in 2024. and they've warned that states don't need to change any laws. those state legislatures could send a fake slate of electors to congress if republicans are in power of the house and senate. they can decide, we're just going to ac

fed chair powell, we've seen such velocity of interest r frank is absolutely right.e will continue to see investment go into cloud i think if you look at certain names, i like some of the old trusted names. i think there's tremendous value. cloud very similar to semiconductors been will rebound. i go back to the camp that the fed is jawboning so hard right now, this is the time to step in. >> fed cannot afford -- they're going to be paying too much in entrance fees on that. so look at workday, salesforce, akami. >> jeff, thank you very much we'll leave it there >>> the dow is down 272 points, a bit off the session lows, as we have whipsawed from glee in the immediate minutes after th fed release of minutes >>> and yields have turned higher once again. more "power lunch" right after this ok, let's talk about those changes to your financial plan. bill, mary? hey... it's our former broker carl. carl, say hi to nina, our schwab financial consultant. hm... i know how difficult these calls can be. not with schwab. nina made it easier to set up our financial plan. we can ch

chair jay powell says 50. he says it is essential that the country tame high inflation in the final comments before central bankers go into the quiet period i guess. i think someone is saying something. >> we try to keep them from the quiet period >> powell said aggressive rate hikes are possible as soon as next month check it out. >> i also think there is something in the idea of front-end loading. whatever an accommodation one thin thinks is appropriate. that is putting 50 basis points on the table we make the decisions at the meeting and make them meeting by meeting. 50 basis points is on the table for the may meeting. >> he made the remarks at the imf panel moderated by sarah isen as he spoke, market pricing for interest rates increasing got more aggressive. according to the cme group fed watch tool, the 50 basis point rate hike in may rose more to 7% not just like antibiotic, i guess, andrew. not exactly like that. you figure you have an infection. give me a quarter of my antibiotics now and see how it go

chairman powell thinking this could take place over three years.to a key point on financial conditions. this is a fed trying to use policy tools to tighten financial conditions. they have made some progress on that. there is still more room to go. financial conditions remain neutral by our measures. if the fed wants to slow demand, they need to get conditions tighter and the balance sheet will be an important tool to do that. lisa: how are you thinking about the economic ramifications in terms of what the equivalent tightening might be measured as? robert: we did some work on this in winter to think about how different asset classes would move in response to the balance sheet and what that would mean in terms of conditions. we estimated the rundown of the balance sheet we are anticipating this year is the equivalent of 125 basis points rate hike. it is just one equivalent. lisa: given the fact, is that enough, given the pace of inflation? at what point do you end up with a recessionary call like deutsche bank versus saying inflation will get unmoor

with the s&p reversal giving up gain 1% earlier and finishing down almost 1.5% this as fed chair powell hands down more aggressive action coming soon. >> there's something in the idea of front-end loading, whatever accommodation one thinks appropriate. that points in the direction of 50 basis points being on the table, certainly we make these decisions at the meeting. we make them meeting by meeting but i'd say 50 basis points is on the table for the may meeting. >> looks like you used our desk. was it filmed right here. >> he was in washington, d.c.. back to the comments, 50 basis points on the table, in favor of front-loading. guy, i thought we knew these responsibilities already. >> no, april 1981, van halen released "fair warning" please don't make a face at me, great album. they've been giving us fair warning and have been doing it for months since november and they trotted out every fed person imaginable and said we're not there focused on the market. you read the comments from bill dudley they said the market wanted to go lower no one is choosing to believe it until a day like to

especially what we heard from jay powell, 50 basis points for may. the market now pricing in 50 basis points in may, june and july. even putting 75 basis points on the table. i mixed down -- the ftse 100 lower by 1%. the consumer confidence gauges out of the u.k. falling to the lowest level since 2008. the cost-of-living crisis, impact -- inflation impacting consumer sentiment. a challenge for boris johnson, who has his own issues to contend with. france, we will get back to that. francine is on the ground ahead of the final vote on sunday. that contention between emmanuel macron and marine le pen. let's see how things are squaring up as we look ahead to the u.s. futures. losses between 1.5 and 2%. today it is more subdued. at 2.694 -- one basis point. within the context, 11 basis points at the front end of the curve yesterday. across the curve, the worst -- futures pointing range bound. in terms of how this clicks across the european space, not much movement around the german two-year. eurodollar remains 1.08. officials at the ecb say is starting to

the timeline jay powell is laying out now. >>> and lawmakers are talking about stripping taxing privileges we layout the political ramifications for florida. >>> elon musk finding a partner for the twitter takeover bid >>> congress set to return to washington advance the president's agenda like build back better is bbb already doa >>> and the morning rbi. introduce you to the red-hot ice cold stock market that we call the snack attack trade it is friday, april 22nd, earth day. this is "worldwide exchange. >>> good morning, good afternoon or good evening. as always, welcome from wherever in the world you may be watching i'm brian sullivan happy friday we made it, everybody. one more day to go it has been a very tough market. not only this week, but this entire month as of late. right now, stock futures are not giving us a real clear indication which way they want to go. i would say they would be flat a little more down i'm trying to be optimistic on friday dow futures off 60 nasdaq off .10% only the dow is higher so far in april. that is barely mega cap names holding up. investors looking f

, lifeline for tens of millions of americans, c this n visited lake powell to find state and federalep the water flowing and the lights on. >> reporter: this is lake powell the country's second-largest reservoir. and it's drying up. satellite images and cnn video from 2015, versus now, shows just how much water has vanished. piles of rock, also, tell the story. >> this ring we see, they call it the bathtub ring that's where the water leached out from the rock. that's how high the water was at some point. >> you said ub just sipts september, the water was four feet above this ledge that we are looking about here and that is just september. >> right. >> so the water is dropping quite dramatically, quite quickly. >> it has. >> reporter: so does power production at the glenn canyon dam, which harnesses the force and volume of the colorado river and lake powell to generate power for as many as 5.8 million homes and businesses in seven states. >> we are knocking on the door of judgment day, i think. judgment day, being, when whe we don't have water to given anybody. >> brian hill runs the

what does a powell do with that? they're buying bonds today. >> it's self-inflicted. >> china, yes. >> they don't have to do what they're doing. their hubris is extraordinary, and vaccine strategy. >> and their reports of -- they're fencing in apartment buildings in shanghai. >> this was a capitalist country that's gone back to communist dictatorship roots, and the fact that they don't seem to care that they can save their people is rather extraordinary. the fact is we have areas of the economy where fundamentally things change during covid, truck drivers. a tremendous number of truck drivers retired. they were elderly. a tremendous number of people decided they didn't want to be truck drivers. plus, it's very difficult to learn how to be a truck driver, and you couldn't do it during covid. i find that until we get enough truck drivers over jb hunt, a great trucking company, we're going to continue to have this level of inflation here. again, these kinds of inflation are more of a mosaic in kchina, we could have anot

when you are houseboating on what's left of lake powell, it is still gorgeous.mid 80s, the water level has dropped 177 feet. that's like ten of these yachts stacked on top of each other. >> this is a temporary dock. get us to the marine. >> reporter: so the tourism industry has no choice but to adapt, making ramps longer as the lake gets lower. >> this was connected straight up there. >> reporter: at one point, you would have been high enough. this is not a decade or two. this is a year or two that it has dropped. >> yeah. this is within two to three years. >> if it continues to go for max, the changing cannons means for people eager to explore them in his rental kai akz and paddle boards but not enough safe places to put them in. and he knows that big picture, 40 million people and their animals and crops in seven state and mexico depend on colorado river water, not to recreation, but to live. >> i do believe climate change is a thing to a certain extent but i do believe the earth goes through cycle and this could be another cycle but i don't see any good evide

jonathan: based on news conferences, chairman powell. how this goes, i don't know. it is going to be interesting to see if president lagarde pushes back against her vice president forget that is going to be interesting. tom: to lisa's comment on labor per dissipation, underplayed yesterday was the jp morgan oil energy outlook, which was a primal scream on building oil demand. that is may be the most optimistic thing i have seen all week. jonathan: and where the consumer stands with oil prices. wells fargo say this, from chris harvey leading the equity coverage. despite what consumers are saying about inflation, they are still spending bank earning calls, indicating the consumer remains very active. let's get the view from citi with david bailin. just how supportive is this consumer of this equity market? how strong is the american consumer right now? david: the american consumer is actually weakening relative to what they were just a few months ago. when we take a look at march data we can see that unit volumes are down in terms of what they are buying, what the goo

it's a 200-point loss 289 is the yield steve weiss, you are short the s&p and you are short the qs powellas hawkish yesterday, reversed the market. why did you put that trade on? >> scott, before you do that, i think we have to hold a moment of silence for a loss of the investment family and that loss is tina. there is no alternative because now there are alternatives and that's the bond. so that's treasurys and at around 3%. so that had been a big part of the thesis for a lot of people being invested in the market and with the fed's hawkish stance and this is why i shorted those and i shorted them earlier in the week and i'm long sarc the fed is the most aggressive, i recall, in decades and there's one thing that continues to upset equity markets and that's the fed. you don't fight it no matter which way it's going and people still, like pavlov's dog, the bell rings and the market trade is down and they think they have to buy so there's hardly much risk management going on with those people and if they sell something, you buy something else i still think you want to be in cash and i stil

valerie. >> reporter: shep, lake powell is the second largest reservoir in the country and 40% of the water here is supposed to end up in the l.a. basin in california. but check out the water level behind me. the top of that white line in the canyon there, that's where the water used to reach when the lake was at capacity back in the 1980s. the dam behind me relies on that power to generate electricity, but now that production is in danger years of drought have left boats high and dry over lake powell near page, arizona city utility manager brian hill stunned by the sight of a dock now dangling in the air. normal way and you can see that now it's a cliff wall. the fact that the water is down, we're like 30% of lake level and there's tens of millions of people relying on this water in the southwest, it's disturbing. >> reporter: the drop in water threatens the largest power source in the region hydroelectric power is part of a collective that serves 5 million people across six states 80% of that power is made here bob martin is the deputy power manager. >> talk about the noise that we'

but first up, jay powell and, george, this was expected. what is happening in the bond market. is this something that you expect to continue no terms of the selloff in bonds and the rising yields or long-term interest rates? >> we do, dagen, good morning, great to talk to you. if you look at a long-term trend line and the ten-year, we are bumping up against, pretty problematic area now. if you think of 1981, 84, 2007, 2019 and now we are bumping up against the 3% threshold level now on the trend line and that's usually where we are heading in some sort of trouble. expectations are in the market. the market is expecting higher inflation and multiple 50 basis point increases and so now the point is where the fed is going to deliver and we are really going to see how the market responds especially the stock market. dagen: and the housing market too, nancy, jump in here. i just want to point out, we found out yesterday that the 30-year fixed rate mortgage is at -- the average now is at 5.11%. that is up from an all-time low a year ago. this is

looking ahead to chairman powell. >> is jay powell. >> to me the messaging is clear. >> normalize as as possible. >> part of what the fed needs to do is tighten financial conditions. >> this process of the fed slowing down the economy is taking time. >> we are still far below any estimate of the neutral funds rate. >> a 50 basis point hike in the next meeting. >>

chairman powell said he prefers to frontload the rate hikes.dent lagarde diverging from that and says instead we will do a gradual increase. we will be watching that. anna: thank, kriti gupta. let's take a look at oil, heading for its third weekly loss due to tumbling chinese demand. jp morgan is watching the eu ban on the potential for it. it has warned brent crude could get higher, $185 a barrel. joining us now is the analyst who wrote the report, natasha kaneva from j.p. morgan chase. nice to see you, thanks for joining us. what would need to come together to result in 185, is that the extreme of the scenarios you have looked at? natasha: absolutely this is an extreme. the speed of how fast the market can get to that price is how fast the european union decides to move away from russian oil. we believe this will be what europe will do, move away from russian energy in general but the market needs time. if they do it immediately, then we would see the price going as high as $185. 4 million barrels a day lost which the market cannot absorb qui

but when you are house boating on what's left of lake powell, it's still gorgeous.ped 177 feet. that's, like, ten of these yachts stacked on top of each other. >> this is a temporary dock. get us access to the -- to the marina. >> reporter: so the tourism industry has no choice but to adapt. making ramps longer as the lake gets lower. >> this was -- was connected straight up there. so at one point, we would have been high enough that that would have been a straight angle. >> yeah. this is not a decade or two. this is a year or two since it's dropped. >> yeah, this is within two to three years. >> if it continues to go down another 10, 15 feet, we might have to shut down. >> reporter: for max, the changing canyons means more people eager to explore them in his rental kayaks and paddle boards but not enough safe places to put them in and he knows that, big picture, 40 million people and their animals and crops in seven states and mexico depend on colorado river water not to recreate but to live. >> manmade climate change, um, i do believe is a thing to a certain exten

>> jerome powell has suggested -- it's interesting that it will be the roaring 20's.y will debate whether it's a technical recession or a technical recession or growth slow down. it appears the central bank is willing to sacrifice growth and that's how monetary policy effectively works. it suggests the reaction function of the fed has so far told us is willing to sacrifice growth in order to calm inflation. that makes sense now with inflation high end feels like it's overheating. it will not make much sense in six months. jonathan: can you run us through what make the mechanical peak means? >> gets around march or april but i did took con -- comfort in that. covid inflation was always going to be transitory. we have to move away from the mechanical piece of inflation. we have been complacent about the damaging impact of inflation on growth because where it was coming from is not necessarily good but the help them asian will create a much bigger drag on growth that's why the fed will have this covered for a pivot later this year. inflation will look a little bit differ

unless powell can back up everything she said, which i kind of doubt she can. i agree, very concerned. then later on in the area, you get to december and you have chip roy saying the president should call everyone off. it's the only path. if we substitute the will of states through electors with a vote through congress every four years, we have destroyed the electoral college so you see them souring and neither lee or roy were among the republicans agreeing to certify, told my colleagues lee had been transparent throughout this, wanted to be investigated and ultimately voted to certify the election results but you see the sort of trajectory and frankly, how willing they were to buy into what donald trump was saying initially that there was this wide spread fraud which of course, there wasn't. >> sarah murray, thank you so much for the reporting tonight. >>> "outfront" next, the images of a missile strike on that maternity ward in mariupol, sparked global outrage and next, "outfront" speaks to a doctor who was working there on that day. her story of survival is

the transition risk though israel and chairman powell explained the source of that. the source of transition risk . >> organizers of the baton rouge bus boycott. he took on several civil rights cases advocating for equality under the law and served a term in the louisiana house of representatives. his commitment to service and his love of our country was not just admirable but inspiring. last year he had the honor to present him with a purple heart for the wounds he received during the d-day invasion of 1944. my grandson has been to the world war ii museum in new orleans, a tremendous museum, and he is now very much into the heroism of our soldiers who were in both world war ii and world war i. so i took my grandson to meet mr. jones because i wanted him to meet a real live hero. and here you see him at 102, so proud of his medals, saluting, and so my grandson just the other day said, papa, remind me of that man we met. so him meeting mr. jones two years ago has inspired a 7-year-old to live his life a better way. so as mr. jones salutes us, shall we all be inspired,

jay powell talking about a 50 basis point move inmate has any born -- everyone's attention. what people aren't talking about enough is it is picked up in the face of the conversation. what explains that for you? where are we talking about a more aggressive federal reserve at the same time in the bond market where looking at breakevens breaking out again? >> there is a creeping realization coming into the market that the growth is more durable. some of the statistics have been changed starting early in february with a revision of the payroll numbers. those were revised to a flat high level of job growth. the job growth has accelerated this year. the commodity prices remain strong. the impact of ukraine has yet to come through. when you compare this with the mid-90's or 2000, the rate of growth, job creation, inflation is head and shoulders above those levels. when jay powell comes in and basically if he had just said i could see doing 50 basis points, that would have been one thing. he emphasized yes, it is better to go early and that there was a window open for another of 50

he begged meadows to try to get in front of the president, but he really soured on powell after thatonference that took place with rudy giuliani and on november 19th, ten days after calling her a straight shooter, he tecxted this to mark meadows. unless can substantiate today, the president should probably disassociate himself and refute any claims that can't be sub substa substantiated. said this is a bad combination when you consider the damages that could be claimed and indeed proven and deep pockets that are involved. lee expressing reservations, but right up until the end of december, beginning of january, still believe that there was a path to stand in the way of the certification of the election. when trump and his associates didn't go with the plan he had hoped, the state legislators offering up an alternate state of electors, that's when he got out, did not vote to object to the election and warned the path he was heading down could lead to a constitutional crisis. >> in the text there, he's talking about financial damages or damage to the constitution and democracy. >> it's

but when you are house boating on what's left of lake powell, it's still gorgeous.t just since the mid-'80s, the water level has dropped 177 feet. that is like ten of these yachts stacked on top of each other. >> this is a temporary dock give us access to -- to the marina. >> reporter: so the tourism industry has no choice but to adapt. making ramps longer as the lake gets lower. >> this was connected straight up there. so at one point, we would have been high enough that would have been a straight angle. >> this is not a decade or two. this is a year or two since its drop? >> yeah, this is within two to three years. >> if it continues to go down another 10, 15 feet, we might have to shut down. >> reporter: for max, the changing canyons means more people eager to explore them and his rental kayaks and paddle boards but not enough safe places to put them in. and he knows that, big picture, 40 million people and their animals and crops in seven states and mexico depend on colorado river water, not to recreate, but to live. >> manmade climate change, um, i do believe i

two weeks later, powell appeared with rudy giuliani in what would become an infamous press conference baseless claims about the election. >> president trump won by a landslide. we are going to prove it. >> reporter: lee then changed his tune calling powell a liability and turned his focus to touting eastman. he pushed a plan to offer up a set of alternate electors. when that plan fizzled, lee decided he was no longer on board. he texted december 16th to mark meadow, i think we are past the point we can expect anyone will do it without some direction and a strong evidentiary argument. both lee and roy ultimately chose not to join other republicans to vote against certifying the election. >> our job is to open and then count, open, then count. that's it. that's all there is. >> reporter: privately, they were they are more emphatic about what trump's team was on. the president should call everyone off. it's the only path. three days before january 6th, he warned, i know only that this will end badly for the president unless we have the constitution on our side. they did not. but the trum

does, growth likes when jay powell is nice nice. he is raising rates seven, eight or nine times like people think. that's insane. so i think it's a good play right now. keep in mind earnings come out in droves in two weeks. i'm going to be sitting back watching what companies have 50%, 100% earnings growth. have great reactions to it. and so right now a little bit early but i'm in microsoft and i'm looking to at a bunch of others like shopifies, trying it turn a few things out. charles: i agree with everything you said. i would add one other caveat for the viewer. these are extraordinarily little volatile stocks, right? >> yeah. charles: if you can't handle it, amazing see a stock up 9%, golly i wish i was in it. not if it is down 9% the next day. if you don't have the stomach for it, you got to wait. gary, you're the best. folks, we'll be right meet jessi. jessica was born to care. she always had your back... back. ng to be a situation. ♪ ♪ ms. hogan's class? yeah, it's atlantis. nice. i don't think they had camels in atlantis. rea

this is a fairy -- a fed that is , like powell said in 2018, walking in a dark room, feeling its way around as it approaches neutral knowing that rate hikes rmp at -- impacting the front and and qt is impacting liquidity, like in the back and likely the financial conditions but they do not know how to calibrate those so the risk of an overshoot in our view is high. john: amanda, you have -- throw in everything the market -- that marked cabana is speaking about, throw in credit and cash. can you tell me how cash competes with credit in your mind at the moment? amanda: absolutely. from a relative value perspective we believe that as rates rise on the front end, cash is coming back as an investable asset class option. it reduces the value proposition of bonds and paper. you have to be careful in terms of an erosion of a value proposition going forward. our global portfolio strategy has underweight to credit. with credit we have overweight to high yield on the u.s. market. in the european market we are more defensive. i still expect underperformance at the front end and outperformance at