the republicans still ahead there. again, the 6:00 hour, the warm-up, primetime starts any second. >> we're ready. we're only seconds away from the first major round of poll closings, control of the u.s. congress, the future of the trump presidency, all of that trump presidency, all of that and a lot more on the line. -- captions by vitac -- www.vitac.com >> we have a senate projection right now. cnn projects that bernie sanders, the independent senator from vermont, the incumbent, he will be reelected. he caucuses with the democrats. in virginia, tim kaine, the incumbent democrat, cnn projects he will get another six years in office. in indiana, too early to call, joe donnelley facing mike braun, a very, very tough fight going on in indiana right now. let's take a look at the balance of power, see where things stand right now. in the u.s. senate, remember, 25 democrats, they will be in the senate. 42 republicans in the senate, but 33 seats tonight remain outstanding. we're watching those 33 states so carefully. rememb

republicans lost 246 seats. still the reason for the discrepancy there as there are still some races that are undecided and undeclared and also independents. when you look at that, 3,4 h 34 versus 3,855 seats, democrats are headed in the right direction for that party. so, again, republicans still have an edge here. but democrats had a good night and they're looking to make up the gains they lost during the obama era. >> that matters not just for local and state issues, but it matters a lot for federal issues like when you talk about redistricting. and these legislatures have a big role in h it. the governors obviously as well which you'll talk about in a little while. but this is a very, very important point for the broader makeup of the united states congress. >> also -- >> many particular gerrymandering. >> also important when it comes to obamacare. whether or not you want to expand medicaid. >> exactly. >> that's important with the governorships you talked about. also important for the state legislature. >>

paul: kemp is running as a trump republican. >> very much running as a trump republican.ntrast. paul: dan, what are you looking at? >> looking at florida which is twin with georgia. down in florida, tallahassee mayor andrew gillum, running against republican congressman ron desantis because he was endorsed by donald trump. andrew gillum is up ashamed running as the second coming of bernie sanders. raising minimum wage to $15. raising corporate raise. spending billion dollars for school choice program, medicaid for all, abolishing the u.s. immigration service, giving licenses to illegal immigrants. this guy is in a dead-heat with desantis in florida! paul: desantis has not been a very good candidate, be honest of that. >> desantis is running against the second coming of donald trump. he has rallies gillum, lock him up. lock him up. paul: allegations of influence-peddling. >> this has national significance, paul. desantis is trump's candidate. if andrew gillum wins in florida, that means florida is at risk for donald trump in 2020. paul: kim, why is walker, behind when he,

republicans say no.ink they're competitive in all of those states and can win at least half of them. if there is a bigger blue wave than anyone anticipates, the senate map could be in play, which would make tennessee emerge as the republican firewall. marsha blackburn of all the rng candidates, has the biggest lead. it's quite possible tennessee could emerge if there is a bigger blue wave than people anticipate as the key firewall. as we come back to the map here, it's a midterm election year. democrats think they have a chance to take back the house. this is where we start. republican majority, 235. if there's a modest to big blue wave, they can take us back in time to the last time the democrats won a big house majority, right after the election of president obama in 2008. they lost this majority in 2010, but this is what america looked like the last time we had a house democratic majority. this is what it looks like now. the big challenge tonight, can the republicans keep all this red? can the democra

seven republicans leading in districts now held by republicans.ne of the things we're seeing tonight is the remaking of the american political map. in the houston suburbs in texas, democrats are leading in congressional races. republicans leading in rural minnesota. white, rural areas that used to be the backbone of the democratic labor party in minnesota, we're not saying these republicans are going to win, but they're leading. this is donald trump's republican party. it's a different republican party. it was happening before donald trump, it's accelerating under him. now the democrats, 19 more they need. as we start to get results in new york and new jersey this is where you see more targets of opportunity. three democrats leading right now. early votes coming in. here's one of them here. the republican incumbent, 52 to 48. again, low vote count. very early. strap in. this is one of the democrat's targets right here. this one, wolf, close to home. buffalo, can chris collins, he is under indictment for insider trading. they were trying to get him

north carolina, a republican-leaning state. it's a republican-leaning state. let's check on a couple of these to see where we are. republican incumbent, 10,000 votes. this held right about there for a while. you need the vote percentage to get you up higher here. the republican incumbent here, very close, let's not get too far ahead of ourselves. it does tell you you have a number of districts some of which were on our list to watch. couple were not where the democrats are in play and being competitive. if the goal is is to get to 23,w 22 because of the called race in virginia, there are places on the map. there are also, i want to clebe clear, there are missed opportunities or disappointments at least on the second tier. democrats have their first list, let's do that. we talked earlier about virginia, talked about the dave brat district here. he's now pulled ahead. democrats were hoping to get two, maybe three, but they were hoping to get two out of virginia. they have one. at 68%, dave brat. that's a narrow lead. still doable. dave brat inching ahead there.

future of the republican party. returning to the first principles reflected in conservative values and in real policy implementation like the repeal of obamacare. it's my opportunity to reintroduce richard, who hosted us all today, brought us all together he heads conservativehq.com and runs the fedup p.a.c., aptly named and today is a good day for the fed up p.a.c. richard? thank you, ken. as ken referenced, others, jenny beth, president trump and the conservatives using conservative issues nationalized this election. and built a large red wall that brought a stop to the blue wave. republicans never win elections unless they're nationalized around conservative issues. tip o'neill's adage of about all politics is local only works for democrats because democrats can't run on their national issues. they can't run on larger government, higher taxes, open the borders to all illegal aliens. evidence of the governor candidates in florida and georgia running on hard left issues went down to defeat. a few months ago, the re

but some republicans who worked on that republican autopsy six years ago are starting to think again about how to save the republican party. kevin mccarthy is one of them. kevin mccarthy is the new leader of republicans in the house of representatives because paul ryan saw the defeat of republicans coming over a year ago and decided not to run for reelection to his congressional seat. today kevin mccarthy told nbc's kasie hunt that recruiting women and minority candidates will be a focus of his. he said give me two years, i've only been leader for a few memts. he admitted to kasie hunt that the republicans have a structural problem. that was the term they used in their discussion today. meaning that republicans are appealing to too narrow a selection of voters to actually win elections. donald trump the republican's structural problem. and as of tonight the president does not stand a chance of being re-elected. only 37% of voters want to see president trump re-elected. 58% of voters want to see president trump defeated in 2020. for the trump campaign to have a chance something dramat

in republican states, republicans coming out and voting for the republican , those who are closely aligned with the president. the results show president trump is the republican party. >> this is the seat above corker. chose not to endorse marsha blackburn. and yet she still wondering. >> no friend of president trump's. chief correspondent. polls closing now. we are carefully watching arizona. trying to defeat martha mcsorley. been one of the key tenants of the arizona race. take a look at texas, dominating the national conversation. o'rourke, willro he be able to unseat ted cruz? we don't know. crivello running as a moderate independent. much more to the middle than the traditional republican. trailing and neck and with 87% of the precincts reporting. she is able to win this seat, that is a big pickup and a flip for democrats. sixth.look at florida's a suburban district where you have the republicans winning with 95%. this is something republicans wanted to keep on. the topdicative of ballot races as well as bill nelson, how that could play down. it is seeming helping republicans. i have

george is more republican, has the republican link to it. it's not surprising again that individual candidate in georgia would run a little bit behind a gubernatorial democratic candidate in florida. >> host: with about 15 minutes left, we can to marry in potomac, maryland, independent. >> caller: yes. i live in maryland but about ten of us from maryland went to help a suburb outside of richmond. i had to knock on about $33, and out of those 33, only one said that he was not going to vote for brett. the reason was that the 33, the other 32 said that they were all republicans and now they switched to democrats. lies that trump is talking about. the main one is the democrats want open borders and they don't want any members coming in. the second one that bother them was that 18 times the republicans try to repeal the pre-existing condition in healthcare, and now they want the votes, they are making, doing a real 180. that is what bothers them the most. >> host: that is mary in maryland. sean trende take it to the virginia house map. >> guest:

voted for republicans him. right up to the point of 2010, you know what,d, congressman edwards, i know you, you, e you, i voted for this is about something bigger, this is about sending in that ase, republicans to washington to keep an eye on president obama and the democrats. i think the congressman is pressure, voters who voted for him before, they don't like the president and what to do gure out and seeing a close race. mucarsel-powell, can you discuss her further? the senate race with governor scott, democrats in eve that with red algae the environment, trying to hold the governor responsible on the that nment for that and will have an impact further down the ballot. is somethingonment wanted to ats have talk about for many cycles now, but it depends on the district, whether it is salie nt or not is and could make a difference in talk florida 26 tonight. >> since i put you on the spot, researched the question and onna shalala, 77 years old, encouraging for senior necessary our audience, would be second repr

a republican did that. and this president, this president, can't bring himself to denounce david duke in the campaign for weeks and finally does it like this. i disavow, okay? i disavow. it's as much as you can do in the face of a guy who is leader of the klu klux klan? i'm sorry, republican in my world would drag david duke into the street and horse win him. this party always had an element in it and we fought against it because we did have republican leaders at the top who were absolutely not tolerant. ronald reagan scorched the klan and david nuke a cpac speech one year, this time i'm surprised cpac doesn't have a white hood concession stand. the people around the alt right that infested the republican party and the conservative movement, where these people are overtly dog whistling to the volume of an air raid super. when you refer to s-hole countries -- i'm sorry issue don't know the rules but i have a notoriously salty tongue. >> the seven second delay. >> i referred to republicans in on the more than

is a republican in name only.nd i was outcast as a rino very early in my career because i supported an unorthodox social position. i was an advocate for lgbtq equality. and so that's where i began to see a corrosiveness and i began to identify that there was a corrosiveness in the movement that didn't have the ability to apply a set of principles, individual freedom evenly or at least tangle with it internally and figure out how it's going to meet the needs of a rising generation and maybe adopt its principles in a way that's gonna make a political movement more viable. >> right. and part of what drew me, margaret, to the republican party in the 1980s was, at that time, it was seen as the party of ideas. it had intellectuals, people like charles krauthammer and george will and irving kristol and bill buckley and people who were willing to engage with ideas and to debate. i mean, i really enjoyed that. and i feel like, in the decades since, we've really lost that. the republican party became a place that valued con

you won't see the republicans doing that very much anymore. what it did do -- what they did do is explode the deficit. as a result, people thought selfish, narrowly focused, dangerous and irresponsible. and so with the senate map wildly tilted in republicans' favor, we're at worst only one seat worse off than we were when we stood here two years ago and if bill nelson wins, which i believe he has a very good chance of doing, we'll be even. when all the votes counted in florida, we could be just where we started at the beginning of the 115th congress, with 48 members, even facing the worst map we ever had. we were defending 10 seats that donald trump won. much to the surprise of the prognosticators who thought we'd lose a whole bunch of seats, we didn't. but that's the past. where do senate democrats go from here? we're going to be relentlessly focused on the issues that matter to the people. first and foremost, lower health care costs, provide better, stronger coverage, from prescription drugs to premiums. we democrats are going to continue to

seven republican seats. the democrats must pick up seven republican seats. if they do that -- and it's looking like they can because they're ahead in so many of these republican districts right now -- they will be the majority in the house of representatives. big nights for the democrats in the house, not so much in the senate. but very big in the house. >> no question. as harry enten said, now the question seems to be we've got to get them to the magic number of 23. they still need seven. on the map now with washington state, oregon, and more importantly california still to come in, in terms of targets of opportunity for the democrats. on the map now, more than enough to get to the magic number, the ultimate number of 23. then the question is how much can the democrats build from there once they get there. you look at the map, and the thing that's striking about this, jake made the point earlier. there's no blue wave when it comes to the senate. there's a lot of blue progress when it comes to governors. there is a blue wave when it comes to the house. witho

get, or republicans have now. so they get the power to schedule the house floor, they get the gavels, the ability to call oversight hearings, the ability to it issue subpoenas, things like that. but from a policy standpoint not so much particularly within spoiler alert, republicans are very, very likely to get have a majority in the u.s. senate and president trump is still going to be in the white house with a veto pen. now that's the house. there's a wall, the wall mitigates the democratic wave to a point but probably not enough. democrats probably feel it. in the senate that republican seawall i was talking about, it is a lot taller, and we talked about this. it is a lot taller than it is in the house, and the wall looks taller than the wave. and so that's why if you allowed me a ridiculously wide range of outcomes, it's anywhere from democrats picking up two which is what they need to get a majority all the way to republicans picking up four, but the most likely bell curve would be republicans pick up a seat or

actively working in the republican party to elect republican presidents and other republican candidatessome of their feelings. let's listen to this. >> the party of trump must be destroyed politically. >> i am urging everybody to vote straight ticket democratic in november, because i think it is imperative to get some checks and balances. >> i left the party about five weeks ago. i think democrats should take the house. i think we'll be safer in a divided government. >> i think it's important democrats take over the house and the senate. i think that any white house is improved by having a check and balance, this white house more than any other. >> and those are people, nicolle wallace, steve schmidt, who tried to elect john mccain president. they've all worked for the election of republican presidents prior to donald trump getting that nomination. when you hear those people talking, are they speaking to you? is that your experience as a voter? >> they're speaking with me, that is my experience. >> with you. >> right now the majority party in the house, in the senate, are not fulfilling

guest: you are articulating frustrated -- has that republican -- frustrated republicans think. be watching for with the new republican leadership is how loyal they remain to president trump. some people have called what you described a faustian bargain. they were willing to forgive the president's personal limitations and rhetoric, or willing to be silent so long as the president would help them put more conservatives on the supreme court and on the lower courts and cut taxes and try to repeal obamacare. now the agenda will be different cannot workblicans together with the president to get the conservative agenda done. their willingness to be silent on his behavior, will it remain? guest: you know what i think will be interesting to watch? what will happen when mitt romney gets to the senate. he has been quite a staunch critic of the president in the past. is he going to be the new jeff flake, the conscience of the senate on the republican side, calling out the president? that will be an interesting thing to watch. host: jeff flake is hoping he is, or others. big question is wh

he talked to his republican leadership about the election of the republican leaders following the 2018 midterm election. [inaudible conversation] >> well, hello everyone. we just had our leadership elections and i have behind me our new leadership team for next congress. and we're excited about maintaining our majority and growing our majority. we're confident we're going to have 53 republican senators to set the agenda next year, to continue obviously with our top priority, which is the confirmation of lifetime appointments to the judiciary, and, you know, we have divided government often in this country. we've had divided government more often than not, since world war ii. so i will be talking to speaker pelosi and house democrats about what we can do together. there are a lot of things that we do together already that i know are not terribly newsworthy to most of you, but we think it is important for the country, and we'll be looking for ways now that we have divided government again to make some progress for the country. so let me turn it over to our new majority whip john thune. >

in the elections and the democrats claiming twelve republican seats so far in their beds to take control of the u.s. house of representatives that's more than half of the magic number of twenty three that they need to reach the big magic number of two hundred eighteen and give them a majority now a number of other races in the battleground areas are proving to be neck and neck with peeping across all of them will be bringing them here but it is looking like the republicans are going to retain control of the senate and expanding their current slim majority in the chamber. let's go live now to alan on capitol hill for us and our i mean quite early result that we are now thinking that maybe able to call the republicans keeping control of the senate break it down for us. well ted cruz winning in texas which wasn't a surprise really but there was a feeling that it could built up momentum and could challenge him to get to within three in a state that hasn't had. a statewide democrat elected for about twenty years that's a pretty impressive sure but ted cruz certainly secures the senate for rep

to something like 19 for the republicans. so the parties are very, very different in what we have now. they're different in the racial composition. but they're also different not just at the mass level. but as we look at our political characteristics, we have a party that if you look at the democrats coming in and -- in both houses, it's going to have far more minorities than anybody else and white males are a distinct minority among democrats in congress. white males are the overwhelming cast of the republicans in congress. and i think we're going to see deeper and starker divisions among the parties, and the other thing that struck me was the level of tribalism in the electorate showing in different ways. democrats did extraordinarily well in the house. we'll talk about that a little bit more later on. but there wasn't a single district that trump carried by more than 55% where a democrat won. so they won in suburban areas. they won in places where hillary clinton had won in the district the last time. but if you had a dist

but mathematically at this point, it's a republican win and a republican takeover. other silver lining, if you're a democrat crying in your soup tonight, is that? ntwo years republicans have the problem that democrats had this year. they'll have to defend more seats, and many of them in some of the biggest swing states. >> norah. >> all right, thanks to both of you. and jeff has made his way over to the decision desk with anthony salvanto. jeff. >> glor: yeah, okay, so a huge hold here in texas on the senate side for republicans with ted cruz defeating beto o'rourke. br republicans in the pete sessions seat in texas' 32, anthony has gone to the democrat colin alrad. >> yup, another one of those suburban flips, jeff, and we're seeing a string of them. that's where right now, that texas district then puts the democratic estimate at 199 for the moment. but i think when all is said and done i think the democrats can get to 227. that's where our trend line points right now. that of course would be over the majority. and so that's where the trend line is pointing from her

spiral for republicans.t: our next caller, welcome to the conversation. caller: hello. i am glad to be on. people seem to be really concerned about social security and the deficit. there are so make thinks money is being spent on. for example, it takes $77 per day to keep an illegal alien. that amounts to $539 per week. 28,000 dollars per year. is $112,000.our a family of six per year is $168,000. what could that do for americans and the deficit? think of how many children and families and infrastructure and senior citizens that could help instead. host: ok. we heard your point. craig gilbert, let's talk about the politics of immigration over the years. paul ryan has been here while i have talked about comprehensive immigration form time and time again. guest: he has generally done at the liberal end of the republican spectrum. understanding there is a limit to what you can advocate for within his own party. by the time from camelot, pulled back on that issue. no question there is a spectrum of opinion among

guest: we have it as likely republican. i mean, this is a republican district. the question is rather steve king will lose. he does have a credible challenger in jd sholten. we actually moved the race onto the competitive race after meeting with him. he is a guy who was trying to make it in the major leagues, trying to make professional baseball as a pitcher ended up , moving in a different direction that he is running a real campaign. steve king, i'm not sure if he has been running a campaign much at all. and i think that should be concerning in an environment that is in a precarious -- people are in a precarious political situation. host: one of the biggest -- handicappers of the race nathan gonzales will , join us tuesday evening. we are glad to have him on this sunday and we are glad to hear from you. our phone lines are open as we talk about some of the key house and senate races. you can also send us a tweet at @cspanwj, or join the conversation on facebook.com/c-span. as you watch the returns for the evening you will be looking for , what? >> i am going t

on the right side of the screen tennessee stayed republican. texas stayed republican.e lost missouri, north dakota and indiana. one might observe also, by the way, that all three of these senate democrats voted against brett kavanaugh for the supreme court. we still don't know what's going to happen with jon tester in montana. but that does perhaps say something about democrats in republican states or in trump-winning states. so right now republicans have -- they've won control of the senate. so now the question is how big is the margin going to be? let's give -- let's say that the current vote totals hold up and republicans win florida. let's say the current vote totals hold up and republicans win arizona. let's give mississippi special election that's probably going to happen in a runoff. look at that. 54 votes and i'm still not even factoring in what could happen in nevada or montana. i mean, republicans are having a very, very good night in the senate. >> mitch mcconnell is watching right now probably and smiling from ear to ear. because he worked incredibly hard a

the senate we also expected that the democrats were going to try and wrestle away house from the republicans and those are the trends that we're seeing as we're moving forward tonight although we are not ready at this point to make any projections or make any confirmations we're also going to be joined tonight by our colleague in los angeles larry king who's joining us to give us his perspective as well on how things are going tonight you know scottie larry it's starting to look like that which we expected on this night will come true at least for the republicans who seem to be having a pretty good showing and that is for them it's really important to nail down and keep the senate larry it's looking like that's going to happen your reaction. and it's also love there like the. democrats can take the house as i understand it there's a ninety percent chance that they will take the house so we're going to have that holds a split government which at this point in this country might even be healthy. the last two years have been the turbulent to say the least and maybe with the democrats controllin

i'll also say the republican senate leader's comments the other day about the republican plan to cut medicare and social security gives away their playbook. the debt went way up to $2 trillion as a result of the tax cut for big corporations. now they want to come back and take it out on people who have medicare and social security. >> you are you prepared for a world wednesday where republicans pick up seats in the senate? >> george, we're prepared for whatever result we have. but let me just say, the fact that we still have a narrow path to a majority is a sea change from where we were 18 months ago and as i said, it's because our candidates have always said they'll stand up for their states, first and foremost, put aside the politics, do what's right, and we're seeing the results here. these are some very close races and of course, they're in states that donald trump won big and it's a testament to these candidates that they're so focused on what matters to people in their state. when it comes to healthcare, that's not a top-down issue. it's not like president trump going out there

spiral for republicans. host: our next caller, welcome to the conversation. caller: hello. i am glad to be on. people seem to be really concerned about social security and the deficit. there are so make thinks money is being spent on. for example, it takes $77 per day to keep an illegal alien. that amounts to $539 per week. 28,000 dollars per year. is $112,000.our a family of six per year is $168,000. what could that do for americans and the deficit? think of how many children and families and infrastructure and senior citizens that could help instead. host: ok. we heard your point. craig gilbert, let's talk about the politics of immigration over the years. paul ryan has been here while i have talked about comprehensive immigration form time and time again. guest: he has generally done at the liberal end of the republican spectrum. understanding there is a limit to what you can advocate for within his own party. by the time from camelot, pulled back on that issue. no question there is a spectrum of opinion a

republicans have slowly come around. that's what were showing in the polls been these very high levels of democratic enthusiasm compared to past midterm polls caused republicans consternation. there seems to be some level of parity now. people can seem to be as fired up as democrats but that leaves us in the middle and the independents are out there and trump has not polled well with independence. in that sense, i think he still is the defining issue in this race. >> elections are won or lost with independence every time. you see them leaning this time? >> they look to be leaning toward the republican side. for the democrats and the generic ballots. they tend to be leaning toward where the democratic position is relative to immigration also. they seem to trust the democrats to handle immigration more than they trust republicans. i question whether or not to focus on the caravan and for the security is what the president needs it to do among independents. i think it's fired up his base. i think the pretty fired up before

but the republican candidate did when.ded in what was a very publicised race in the american media, and we would hearfrom him in a moment. first let's get this report from our correspondent rajini vaidyanathan report from our correspondent rajini vaidya nathan in report from our correspondent rajini vaidyanathan in florida. well, it wasn't a good night for the democrats here in the crucial state of florida. for a start, they lost control of the one senate seat that they held. it had been held by bill nelson for three consecutive terms, but tonight republican rick scott, the former governor of this state, one that seat, helping boost republicans' fortunes in the senate as they hang on to control the senate. also, republicans held onto the governor seat here. the democrats were hoping that their candidate andrew gillum would become the first black governor for the state of florida. but in both of those races, it wasn't necessarily a ringing endorsement for the republican party because both of the races were won by the republ

get republicans on board. but all republicans said no, and then in the very end, democrats passed it anyway, and conservative media and the republicans decided they would then preach all day long every single day that the reform of the health insurance system that the democrats had brought about was actually just a nice way of saying that obama was creating death squads to come kill your family, death squads, death panels. you will die because of obama and the democrats are coming to kill you and they're going to start with the elderly. that was the republican conservative messaging, and conservative media messaging in particular on health reform. and then it was time to vote again. and in history, of course, the first congressional election after a new president is elected, the pendulum almost always swings back the other way, against the party of the president. and with a victory as big and as sweeping as obama and the democrats had had ten years ago tonight, obama won in 2008 by 8.5 million votes. he more t

bush was the republican elected in 1966 and has been republican cents.n a close race. >> i treat every election as though i am behind. it's always important to run and run this year behind. the selection is especially important to texas, to the country. if democrats went district seven, nancy pelosi will be speaker of the house. this is one of the decisive races for the nation. i am working hard to turn out every republican vote to make sure that doesn't happen. >> leland: i appreciate the earnest effort in terms of running every race like your behind. there were times you want by double digits and times he didn't have a democratic challenger. now you do in the race is either tied or some say lisa fletcher could have a slight edge. why do you think that is? >> this is a different election year. people in the southern district hillary clinton won by default when republicans skip the presidential race and straight party boat last time. that allowed clinton to win by default. that brought the democrats out of woodwork. the national democrat party spending a

for the house republicans. we have a lot of work ahead of us and we have the right policies and we know that policies we put in place in the last congress are the ones that create the kind of economic growth and national security that we need in this nation. i would say we will take a back seat to no one neither i will nor anyone in this leadership team when it comes to doing what is right for america's leader, -- america's women america's , minorities, making sure everyone cares deeply about. as a mother of i am honored to five, serve and we will take back the majority. it is my tremendous honor now to be able to introduce our new minority whip, mr. steve scalise. >> congratulations to you, kevin, and our leadership team. it is an honor to be elected as a republican whip and it is a job i have enjoyed for the last four years and one of the things is i would travel around the country in a lot of swing districts, people love the fact that we have a booming economy. they see how tremendous the success has been fo

if you're a republican, a texas republican you think texas republicans vote for republicans. not so. there are people that voted for the republican governor and voted for beto. and garrett has been in the state for days. he was talking about the abbott-beto voter. we saw that in the numbers we put up before. ted cruz also runs behind donald trump, who won the state by 9 points, which sounds like a lot, but it's not that much for a republican. this is going to be interesting no matter how it turns out. and florida hasn't had a democratic governor in a long time. and we may have misrepresented the ease with which gillum is going to win. it's a really hard state. >> the other thing that could be happening in florida is the old bradley effect which lowered the election day vote totals of black candidates. >> explain how that works. >> former mayor tom bradley who kept running for governor, and polls would show that he would win, and somehow on election day he would lose. >> people attacking the pollsters say i'm going to vote for the black candidate. >> and then they wouldn't. >>

by the way, at the hurting of all those republicans in these metropolitan districts. >> house republicans. >> the reason that he's going to the fear-based argument on immigration is because he's failed to build the wall. that's what he's campaigned on. it's not promises made, promises kept, he wasn't made progress on the wall and we see that border crossings are up, so he's going to caravan. >> he's got a point there. why are the democrats against the wall? >> we get the wall built and have serious immigration reform -- >> when mexico pays for it. >> fear is a powerful motivator. >> and he's the savior of it all. >> you worked with president reagan. i mean it was morning in america. i'd like more optimism from trump saying, look how much better things are today than two years ago. >> he doesn't do it. >> why does he not do it, david? why does he not do the optimism? why does not not do look at the economy. latino unemployment is the lowest it has ever been instead of the images of latinos that he's offering. >> i find it incredibly mystifying. i just have to believe there's something abou

it is a great strength for republicans.any of them are running on the strength of the economy, on defeating isis. you know, there's a number of issues that we have to talk about, we want to talk about, other than just the president. i know that's the focus of much of the media, it is the focus of the national interest, but it is not always a focus when you go to rural utah or rural california or some of the other places that people are campaigning every day. >> yeah. the president says, yeah, the economy is great but he says it is sort of boring, he doesn't really want to talk about it. he wants to talk about the caravan and the illegal immigration, that's what really generates the base as far as he's concerned. is he making a mistake? should he be talking more about a strong economy, low unemployment, good jobs numbers? >> yeah, i think we got to talk about both. look, i don't know anyone -- and i mean republican, democrat, independent, i don't know anyone who thinks it is okay to have -- i shouldn't say that because there

and he said he's a republican. i said, you know, this is what i like. i'm a republican. and that is exactly the case today because i think that, you know, i admired him, what he said, the philosophy of strong military, fiscally conservative, be inclusive, to make the world the marketplace, all of those kind of issues i could relate to and i believed in. and then of course i became a big fan of ronald reagan because he was governor when i came to california. then he ran for president, became a big fan of his because he was inclusive, and so therefore, i think this is the republican party, the way it started, way back, and it is still today with it's a big tent, yes, there are people screaming way to the right, but i think it will correct itself. i respect steve's decision because there's a lot of people that feel like that, but it is not my nature. i will fight it out to the end, and i will try to bring change, within the party and also through the redistricting, i will bring change. i think this is the key thing is to do something about it rather than just to talk about

and understand the roots of republicanism and why you are republican. and from my research, a lot of hispanics if they understood it, would be republicans. >> identity politics when it comes to african-american and hispanic voters. can the republican party win them over? >> he did. he got 27% of the african-american vote which is the highest for a republican candidate in the state of california. 44% of the hispanic vote because he was in a black church every sunday, campaigned in the african-american community. campaigned in the hispanic community, and the first thing about reaching out is showing up. if you show up and talk with respect, you can bring a message of hope and opportunity like he did in people will respond to -- and people will respond to it. arnold: there is a big mistake for politicians when they are -- to go when they are on a campaign trail, to go to a latino church for a black church. it is taking advantage of the situation, like i need you now to vote, and then i will not be around anymore. with me, i think it had something to do wit

republican congresswoman martha mcsally conceded a seat previously held by republicans. now all eyes are on florida, the state that made recounts infamous is reviewing votes around the clock, across the state, because of the thin margins in some pivotal races. florida's high-profile u.s. senate race is hanging in the balance. democratic incumbent bill nelson has been trailing republican rick scott by about 13,000 votes. ballots are also be recounted in the florida governor's race. democrat andrew gillum, who withdrew his concession, is running about 34,000 votes behind republican congressman ron desantis. also undecided tonight the mississippi senate special election. democrat mike espy and republican cindy hyde-smith are set for a runoff two weeks from now. and in the georgia governor's race democrat stacey abrams is fighting on, hoping to close the gap with republican brian kemp. a judge has ordered thousands of provisional ballots to be reviewed. we're tracking all the uncalled races and what hans next. let's go to wolf, who's with john king at the magic wall. wolf. >

he said two years, republican house, republican senate, he's gone chunks of money. now that nancy pelosi doesn't want to build the wall? >> this is where the battle is. the republicans, one of the big failures especially under paul ryan's leadership, was not to advance the issue, not only the issues around border security, the wall, but a complete package around visa reform, immigration system, visa over his days, this is all going to stall on the american people. it's not going to get through with the democrats, there is no doubt about that, and the big lie here is the lie being told to the "illegal aliens" who come to the country that democrats are going to give them something, because when they have other super majorities, they've given them nothing. it's a wedge issue they like to have ended will continue to affect many lower income americans when it comes to wage depression. we are talking about politicians, but i got to tell you, americans pay the price for this. >> julie: judith come i want to take each of the board paired arizona come at you close to call. k

the republicans look better in the senate from the democrats doing house, but republicans are favored in the senate. democrats still in the house. that's how that looks at this stage. what we can't tell bret and martha, what is the trump effect? what is the effect of his weight campaigning. i remember vividly, bill clinton campaigned and he really went after it in 1994 to try to save the congress for his party. he campaigned at least as vigorously as the president has and it was all for not. so here we were all of us on election night having watch the president campaigned so hard in getting all these crowds that he was boasting about and people knew crowd size was not a good indicator, but boy were we wrong. we don't really know. we may be in a new time. this man may have a poll that we can't measure by the usual methods. >> i think that is the question as we head into this. what is the trump effect? in 20 sexting we all sat in this room and watch something that was so remarkable take place so here we are two years later, all that pent up energy for people who have been resisting this

will republicans add? this is one of their targets, 51-49 for the republicans right now.ey hope to do it. let's take a look at this at the presidential level, this state not competitive. it was a blowout for donald trump, his vice president mike pence. i want to go back to 2012 to donnelly's senate race. this is a weak candidate. he got 50%, so it is a tough state for democrat, it was then and more so now in donald trump's republican party, though this is a test tonight for the senate. can joe donnelly hold on in this environment? what message will that send? we'll watch that. i want to switch to the house map and come back to 2018. 435. they're going to start to fill in any moment now. the first one that will fill in will come for us out here, one of the key races. pop out to kentucky. polls close any minute. president carried kentucky 6th by 15 points. he went there to cam pay. amy mcgrath, one of the candidates the party went out of its way to recruit. she tressed health care, he stressed the economy. if the democrats -- this is a republican big district. the president

you're still a republican of the republican party, are you not? >> yeah, yeah. >> what is happening here in terms of the fact there are things like prison reform, things like health care? there are all sorts of topics that would actually be -- even immigration -- that would be good and smart and popular for republicans, but they've been hijacked by the right wing of the republican party and this president. when i grew up, i didn't know republicans thought immigration was a bad thing. i didn't know they thought prison reform was a bad thing. i didn't know they thought lower costs for better health care would be a bad thing. so what do guys like you do? there's so many of you, people who are republicans. i mean, you worked in the white house. you worked for a republican president of the united states. what do you do? >> you vote for the best person. you don't have to be hijacked by policies you don't agree with. you vote for the best person. that's our right as americans. we have the right to vote. back in the '70s, i'm showing my age now, i was wor