guy: ubs was profitable beforehand so ubs was the stronger of the two. it is bringing in credit suisse, which suffered significant outflows as a result of the turbulence it experienced. stabilizing those has been job number one. there is evidence they can do that. the next phase will be the full year story, where we see the combined group announcing what the growth strategy is for the next three years. that will involve wealth management in asia and the middle east. critically, it will involve what their plans for wealth management will be in the united states. they won't in any way be able to take the likes of morgan stanley but they will look at the market in a big way. that is what we are building up to. these numbers are bridge numbers. they give us breadcrumbs as to what progress they are making. they stabilized the money in terms of wealth management. they are stabilizing the situation, then they need to move to the growth phase and i think that is what the market will look for, when these things start to come into kilter. they will see some big ch

the ubs entity is profitable.e taking it over time and ubs will take the effects, the accounting benefits of riding down assets and pulling back. there will be profitable capital ratios, they will be in focus and they have already suggested we are looking with a capital distribution beyond the progressive dividend. they are looking at larger capital distribution and i would think towards the end of the second half next year we have more integral integration already in numbers and i would expect them to talk about more detail. an update in february of this year. it needs more progress on the challenges, integration causes to be mentioned in terms of distribution. alix: what do you learn about deposits and assets coming back in? do they have to do anything to gain that? >> i suppose that there were a few of ubs's mango parts departments -- paying upward departments. clearly, there were the money or the positive influence was in focus and they only had a stabilizing trend in august. what is happening is as we see a l

ubs.he bank reported a higher net loss of $785 the million in the third quarter after taking a $2.1 billion hit tied to the integration of credit suisse. the shares are up 3.3%. joumanna is in zurich poring through the numbers. talk about why the share price is reacting positively this morning. >> reporter: good morning, julianna. first, let me pick up on the headline loss. of course, that is grabbing a lot of attention. it is worth noting that the profit number is the number that came ahead of consensus. the negative print for the quarter is a reflection of those higher than expected restructuring costs and tax charge as well when you take into consideration the integration of credit suisse the last couple of month. this was telegraphed when we spoke to ubs a couple of months ago. they said they are expecting in the coming months to increase the cost, restructuring efforts, when it comes to integrating the organization. a lot of focus on the investment banking business. we spoke about the

in reaction, ubs shares trading 3.6% higher. frank. >> julianna, thank you.e joumanna coming up later with ubs. >>> we will stick to overseas action. imf boots china's 2023 gdp outlook for the year, but expects to slowdown next year with the property market weakness and weaker demand. let's talk about the china market with the chief asian economist of hsbc. fred, thank you for being here. >> good morning. >> how should investors read the outlook with the growth of 5.4% this year, but expectations for next year at 4.6% which is a slowdown? >> the 5.4% for this is a bit backward looking with better numbers out in the third quarter. there is some distortion here because the last year growth was weak. the comparison is easier. the bigger message here is we are still looking for slightly weaker number going to next year because the headwinds remain in place, particularly in the construction sector. that is a big sector and unless you see strong revival there, that will provide a ceiling for economic growth in china throughout next year. >> we have other headlines.

doing that with the former ubs chairman, alex weber. and another exclusive from the parkways asia form. as we assess the risks with prime minister modi's chief advisor. getting to market action, let's have a look at what is going on, risk rally in place. as you can see, it is all green. we are moving into positivity. we got bonds and equities, all up at the moment. looking at the hang seng one of the key drivers but it is the federal reserve, of course. we have right now shares tracking those u.s. stock and bond gains, fed signaling that policy tightening may be over with. it is not definitive, naturally. they moved out many of the swaps bets on a rate hike this year which one that may result at a rate cut in june or july. mirroring what is happening with treasury yields, the 10-year benchmark shedding 20 basis points. on wednesday after that decision. looking also what we have in the commodity space. got a bit of a big move for wti. after the recent declines wti crude up over 1% with 81 bucks now. was not too long that we have seen it

ubs, the stock up by 2.4%. it could have been a negative roundup and it was a we are on track outlook and they have stabilized the money that had leftover -- that they had leftover and that is a good sign. cost cuts are broadly on track and they do not tell us much. the fact that they did not tell us anything bad was god. the stock is up by 2.3%. alix: the s&p and the nasdaq, the move might not the remarkable that the nasdaq 100 is up. we are looking at seven straight gains of gains. we have not seen that since november 2021 for these indices. we'll have to wonder why and how and are we still short covering. do we have the start of a shanty clause rally and we will break down these questions. emerson electric, down almost 8%, the quarter what was what was not good and the backlog in the future of the business was ok. take that for what it is. crude stealthily down by almost 3% making the s&p energy one of the worst performing sectors. i do not have the why behind it, potentially it is the supply online from rus

the justification ubs is using is they see this as a normal rate cutting cycle. they expect 275 basis points by the end of next year. they think we could start to see cuts as early as march. they are saying one of the reasons inflation is down -- i don't know this is a justification but they see a recession starting by the second quarter of next year. what i have thought about why the fed will cut as soon as the fed is saying they would cut if there is a recession around, that could be one reason. we put the joint to 75 basis points against the market which is at 75 basis points by the end of next december. it is a wide divide. . . the widest divide might be markets and strategists versus the fed itself. the fed at least on two occasions has said they are not cutting anytime soon. if we go into the bloomberg terminal and take a look at a chart that shows the two yield and the 10 year yield, here's the two yield. the uptrend is in place. the 10 year yield, the uptrend is in place. that you your yield, firmly from a number of technical chart perspectives like it is

let's start with ubs here. that will be in the spotlight. are you looking for?hris ubs will be very eager to show some of the benefit from its recent takers of christmas. this will be a foursquare included credit suisse earnings. i think that investors will be looking at is to get a bit more of a gauge as to where long-term value really lies. this is on retaining some of the key talent across the board. the attention will also be on wealth as well as deposits and the pipeline going forward. the bank has a lot more of the revenue from equity strategy which bodes well for leaders across the sector at the minute. stremme results seen from u.s. peers goldman sachs and morgan stanley which reported quad strong beats in that arena. >> we have to see just how much momentum they can really sustain. they are kind of in a league of their own compared to some of the other european banks. walk us through that part of the world. >> that is right. most european banks have been performing around consensus but we are really saying bigger and better performance across the u.s. g

what's the ube part? what's in this cocktail? a cocktail that is inspired by filipino dessert called ube halaya halaya. >> and it is just meant to be like something that reminds me of home and the and family, because that's what the holidays are about, is really spending time with our friends and our family and celebrating what we have. >> so what's in it? how do you make how do we make it so we're going to take the teremana reposado tequila and we're just going to do about two ounces into the glass, into the shaker. >> actually. and then we're going to add some ube coconut milk. that's just a little ube extract and a little bit of coconut milk in there. so it's already sweetened, right? >> so this is just a sweet drink or is this more like a what type of drink is this? how would you. >> i would say it was a little more spiced. it's definitely got like i wouldn't call it sweet. it actually comes out a little more savory because it's not sweet. and coconut milk. okay. yeah. so it's just straight coconut milk with a little ube in i

i hope more of a ubs would be right. but we will have to wait.th of cuts call coming from ubs certainly a punchy one and it stands opposed to some other ones. san francisco mayor is going to be joining bloomberg technology with caroline hyde and ed ludlow ahead of that meeting between xi jinping and biden. a lot of questions will be asked around san francisco and the clean up of that city and what it means for politics going forward. this is bloomberg. ♪ the power goes out and we still have wifi to do our homework. and that's a good thing? great in my book! who are you? no power? no problem. introducing storm-ready wifi. now you can stay reliably connected through power outages with unlimited cellular data and up to 4 hours of battery back-up to keep you online. only from xfinity. home of the xfinity 10g network. you want to be able to provide your child with the tools or resources they need. with reliable internet at home, through the internet essentials program, the world opened up. fellas, fellas. that's how my son was able to find the hidden

, but what about three ubs?, you, i won't go, it's so unfair, you got it, go, no, i'm telling you, he died a long time ago, i won't go, i won't quarrel, sorry kora, tora, tora, we are already, it’s time to run away from us, it was, of course, you, excuse me, excuse me, attention, look, these are postcards as if from the future, it will be, but not even eternal, it will even be earlier, this is progress , even you will see, it is shown here, look at what kind of vehicles, airplanes, people with wings there will be, believe me, and you will see it, even more so we will see it, why are you saying that, this is a letter, you didn’t see who, then it’s not you, but we who will decide who will fly what and where, you will understand that i was right, okay? because it seems to be on land and under water, excuse me, above the ground, but fly, but no, under water, above the ground we will fly for races, you know, this is a mechanical horse, you don’t need anything, no oats, no horseshoes, here, here is a machine that does

she will be speaking to sergio ermotti, the ubs ceo at 9:00 a.m. u.k. time. do not want to miss that exclusive conversation from singapore. i want to pivot. you heard sherry paul talking about the geopolitics. let's take that to right here in europe. the european union executive arm has recommended opening membership talks with ukraine. that is once it completes a series of reforms. volodymyr zelenskyy hailed the decision as a, quote, strong and historic step to bring his country closer to the eu as the war against russia continues. now maria tadeo in brussels standing by with more. talk to us about the significance of this for the european union and where we go from here. maria: i am happy you gave me a promotion there. but i will take it. it is an historic step. it is a first step. the road to e.u. membership we know very well can take years. that is a difficult process but nonetheless it is a first step for ukraine. you talk about the big geopolitical changes that came about in the context of war with russia and this is one of it. remember. in 2022 ukraine

we have big names coming through, ubs is one of them.much we already had a pretty good picture on the state of play on european banking. this is a market where you have risk off but not in a way where nobody is doing anything and it's not good for investment banking. the rate story is over for european banks. as i can be bad news for the moment but the peak is probably gone. if the read stay higher for longer, the benefits will stay at the same level but they will not increase in the something that investors are aware of. and credit quality where everyone is keen to hear about what they think of the economy and the quality of the loan books. it's all still healthy but that's always the case before you move into a recession. and then banks need to make sure they have enough capital and enough money to cover for the losses. guy: everyone is waiting for that to happen. when do the bank start talking about it? they have to get some visibility on this. will you be next quarter? jp: we headed a little bit. when we heard about what the executiv

ubs and goldman sachs back in 24, maybe you get one rate cut. llisa: one thing that they said was there's pressure on discretionary items. they seem to offer a more tepid view of what is expected in the year ahead and these types of outlooks i think are giving people real pause. we don't know what is in the pipeline with long and variable lags. we don't know what discretionary spending is going to do. jonathan: the premarket up by about 1.2%. tomorrow number some target. after that, numbers from walmart. let's look at the broader price section, equity futures on the s&p 500 posited by 0.1% and a bit a lift in the equity market. yesterday a total snooze across the board. tom: we were watching trying to wait. jonathan: just hit snooze. a quiet start to a really busy week. finish on the bond market, will fix it our attention on a 10 year maturity. yields lower by a couple of basis points. lisa: people seem to be piling in. markets have been extremely dull over the past 24 hours to edify what you are saying. people are stripping out energy given the

ubs perhaps a soon as march. goldman sachs much later in the year, fourth-quarter is when they see the first rate cut, more in line with market and fed positioning right now. two cuts but starting later in the year. i want to point out that marco thinks it may not be wise to take advantage of this recent rally we've had. he says it's mostly down to momentum and short covering and remains pessimistic and underweight u.s. equities. he's modest on commodities as a geopolitical hedge. haidi: let's get more on trying to navigate this as we get to the u.s. cpi print, the key release of the week. garfield reynolds joins us. there is already so much noise and positioning and speculation going into the rest of the real -- the rest of the year and 2024 in terms of the fed. our markets getting ahead of themselves? garfield: markets are mostly trying to do what they usually do, come up with what the future will bring. you have a very divergent set of outcomes. vonnie was talking about the contrasting calls from analysts. in

ubs has an interesting view.hey are one of the few houses out there still actually forecasting two or three consecutive negative quarters of growth or recession. they are suggesting that the fed may have to cut rates by 275 basis points three times more than what is priced in the market let's take a listen to the interview i had a few hours ago. >> we think inflation will fall to below target next year and unemployment to 4.9% by the end of the year. suddenly, the model will say you need to be accommodative that is 250 for them if you are starting from 5.5% level, you need to reverse to accommodate. that is where the market debate is because the banks have recession forecast for the u.s., they don't have the fed forecast because they have different unemployment >> very big call from the economist. will the fed have the same view? will it mirror the perception next year? i'll speak to a well known voice from the st. louis fed james bullard. we will have that at 10:30 a.m. this morning to get his views on what the

dani: you and ubs saying we do not see why things are different this time.nks so much for joining us, kathryn rooney vera, chief market strategist at stonex financial. apple plans an ambitious ios update as it looks to compete in the ai market. details in the startup, next, for you on bloomberg. ♪ kailey: it is 20 past 7:00 on the west coast. let's get to the start up, where we cover the top stories from the bay area and beyond as silicon valley starts its morning. joining us now is caroline hyde. broadly, stocks are down, but the one leading the charge for the s&p 500, bigots points contributor is nvidia. proving to be a powerhouse. there is some news in terms of processors it is using for ai. caroline: h200 is its name. everyone has been trying to stand out with the fact that they've been able to stockpile the h100, the processor that nvidia has become the darling four. this time, they are updating the ai processors to make the access to memory even greater. basically, you'll be able to deal with far larger models, more data ultimately, to be able to train

ubs's chief strategist joins us now.as: it has been christmas because you had lower than expected cpi print and retail sales were not as bad as the market had feared. it seems to me before the year end, we will give some of this back. this was a substantial rally but the next cpi print will be a higher than consensus cpi. consensus could go to 38 basis points because some of the factors that drove cpi lower are actually going to be dropping out and we see a rise and it is weakening. you see that the consumer is weakening. instead of getting better than expected growth and lower than expected inflation, you can see the reverse of that and a lot of the covering that has driven some of this rally, we think that is largely done so from here, it seems to me that the fixed income love for equity which is what this was comes down. risk premium also comes down which is not normal. normally, the premium rises. this time, you get credit spreads coming in. you get equities flying. you get cyclical's leading that. all of that seems

. >>> the chairman of ubs warning of growing risk in the credit market. there is an asset bubble forming there. he joins us to explain. >>> plus, we'll get to an upgrade of boeing and why rbc says it still has room to run, despite a 20% hike the past month. >>> markets have recovered early losses. dow up 114. bond yields declining just a little bit. the market digesting quite a bit of fed speak this morning. fed governor bowman saying she would be willing to support raising the funds rate at a future meeting if inflation progress stalls while fed governor waller says he's encouraged by recent data but not ready to call it a victory. listen to what he had to say. >> i am encouraged by the early signs of moderating economic activity in the fourth quarter based on the data in hand. inflation is still too high. and it is too early to say whether the slowing we're seeing will be sustained. but i am increasingly confident that policy is currently well positioned to slow the economy and get inflation back to 2%. >> the market seeming to take its cue from that id

we spoke at the ubs conference yesterday about the freedom that comes with a woman having her own money>> there's absolutely no doubt that women's financial independence makes a consumers are familiar with. now the outlook, though, seems to be improving. when we heard from home depot earlier this week, they said the worst of the inflation is behind us. that was very much in line with that key data, the cpi print on tuesday from the united states. in deed suggestioning the inflationary pressure is in the united states. i want to go to target. we heard from the ceo speaking to our colleagues stateside yesterday, and target has posted a boost with eps and revenue, but the ceo also said it's too early, really, to weigh in on what expectations they have for holiday sales. now later on today, we are going to hear from more u.s. retailers, walmart, macy's, and gap. all posting their results. we are approaching black friday sales next week, and of course, the very important christmas shopping season for the retailers. >> silvia, thank you for breaking down what we have heard so far from the ret

the syrian economy used to lose 1% of gdp per month. >> ub .n.dicts 11 to 16 yea set back in health, education, growth and business. >>> donald trump speaking out about the israel-hamas war in an interview with a spanish language news, former u.s. president said he was surprised israel was caught off guard by the attack. and asking how the u.s. could help, he suggested a hands off approach. >> you have a war going on and you will probably have to let it play out. you probably will have to let it play out. a lot of people are dying. it should have never started. there is no hatred like the palestinian hatred of israel. and jewish people. and probably the other way around also. you know, it is not as obvious, but probably that is it too. so sometimes you have to let things play out. >> cnn is learning more about the witnesses who could be called in trump's upcoming criminal trial in florida. the former u.s. president faces 37 charges represented to the alleged mis -- related to the mishandling of documents. new details help paint a picture of how f

ubs has registered its first quarterly loss in six years, reflecting the impact of the takeover in marchval credit suisse. the largest bank in switzerland says its net loss was $785 million for the quarter and it says it was pressured for buying credit suisse for over $3 billion in march. global wine production is on course to fall to its lowest level in more than six decades. the international organisation for vine and wine says output is expected to drop by 7% compared to 2022. it has blamed extreme weather events in the southern hemisphere as well as some parts in europe, which have led to poor harvests. that is if it for this edition of asia business report. i will be back next hour so thank you for joining us. voice-over: bbc news, - bringing you different stories from across the uk. clocking up the kilometres on the conwell north coast, this mother is taking an recent challenge. mother is taking an recent challenge-— mother is taking an recent challenge. trying to find as much varied _ challenge. trying to find as much varied terrain - challenge. trying to find as much varied terra

we will talk about what sectors he means gareth mccartney at ubs.hank you for coming in and joining us this morning. i'm curious of your take on why ipo market hasn't picked up in 2023 >> all the headline pre-conditions for the market have been good there global markets up 10% to 20% the vix, the benchmark volume activity has been at a low. we would see a pick up in significant. the reality is the market is fragile with the big market questions where u.s. rates peak. for a long duration project with five weeks with an ipo, it is challenging to get the deals done in the environment despite the headlines. >> given a lot of the h high-profile companies which have come to market have not performed well post-ipo, are you pressuring companies with valuations >> we have been closed for best part of two yearsexceptions. i think you are right. the positive was we had a window post-summer and some deals got done the temperpid market has pushed those ipos to 2024. >> the speculation going into this with a lot of talk and you had the prevalence of key investors

ubs' perspective is that tech stocks look attractive right now?some of the fear surrounding the group is overdone and they sector looks pretty well-positioned for growth especially in -- the sector looks pretty well-positioned for growth. it is obviously a positive. is he is a buying opportunity in conductors and pretty attractive -- it is seeing a buying opportunity in conductors and pretty attractive optimism. although there were disappointments in pronounced selloffs, most analysts remain positive about the group from a longer-term perspective as for our house potential -- as were as potential. ed: for me, nvidia, it has been an incredible ride on the stock year to date, it is so big from an index perspective, the market will pay attention, right? >> it is going to get additional focus again for one of the several quarters in a row because it is so central to the ai thesis right now. the first stop for anyone who is looking to build on any kind of ai infrastructure, past two orders have -- quarters have been strong. will they do it again? if th

ubs has registered its first quarterly loss in six years, reflecting the impact of the takeover in march largest bank in switzerland says its net loss in, it says it was pressured for buying credit suisse for over $3 billion in march. global wine production is on course to fall to its lowest level in more than six decades. the international organisation for vine and wine says output is expected to drop by 7% compared to 2022. it has blamed extreme weather events in the southern hemisphere as well as some parts in europe, which have led to poor harvests but the change could actually balance the global market as one consumption around the world has been falling, and stocks actually remain high. that is if it for this edition of asia business report. i will be back next hour so thank you for joining us. voice-over: bbc news, - bringing you different stories from across the uk. this is dawn. named to mark a new era of uk technology. it's the country's fastest ai supercomputer and it's housed in a high—security data centre at the university of cambridge. you can barely hear yourself think in

anyway, the chief strategist at ubs, the investment bank at ubs, joining us next.iscuss, much to discuss. that conversation, next. this is bloomberg. ♪ the chase ink business premier card is made for people like sam, who make- everyday products, designed smarter. like a smart coffee grinder, that orders fresh beans for you. oh, genius! for more breakthroughs like that- i need a breakthrough card. like ours! with 2.5% cash back on purchases of $5,000 or more. plus unlimited 2% cash back on all other purchases. and with greater spending potential, sam can keep making smart ideas- a brilliant reality! the ink business premier card from chase for business. make more of what's yours. guy: thursday, november 30, the last day of november. what a november it has been. we finish with equities leading a little higher. energy stocks leading the charge today. the countdown for the close starts right now. >> the countdown is on in europe . this is bloomberg markets, european close, with guy johnson and alix steel. guy: stoxx

haslinda: ubs says 10 year yields could get to 3.5% by june next year when the fed starts to cut.thers disagree and say yields could go to 5% or above. they say the fed is not done tightening and we could see 5% again. how position in the bond market? aninda: our overall view is where are we in the policy tightening cycle? we are at or near the peak is how we are characterizing the cycle. what that means is, yeah, we probably see a peak. maybe one more hike, but we are near there. what that means going forward, we are somewhat defensively positions because the macro outcomes are uncertain. we are somewhere back and forth between potentially a soft landing or an inevitable recession or a much bigger extent of international divergence, which pressurizes the whole world, except the u.s. and that a certain context, we think it is best to be defensively positioned and we anticipate yields in the next six months to nine months to come off by 50 to 100 basis points from where they are at the moment. five percentage points, give or take. so that is our baseline expectation. we are slightl

luke kawa with ubs asset management. yesterday there was a headline that stuck out like a sore thumb. the chairman is talking in the statement about cumulative inflation. scarlett, i take real issue with this. the suits and ties talk about month over month, year-over-year. cumulative inflation -- radio, let me explain this to you. this is usda, how much do groceries cost? one year they are up 3.2%. the next year they are up 3.5%. in 2022 they ballooned 11%. that is compounded in aisle 14 at your store. groceries have gone up 19%. the two americas, the fancy america we are talking to every day is talking all of these fancy statistics, and what people are living is not from the beginning of pen -- of the pandemic, but somewhere in the middle of the pandemic groceries are up 19%. scarlett: you can't go to cosco without accumulating a bill of about $500. and that is what gets people disgruntled. it doesn't matter that inflation is coming closer to that 2% target if you're cosco bill is about $500. tom: what is the number one

describing this issue is more if you think about traditional finance and large banks — think of maybe ubs, maybe they would be fined for bad behaviour but it doesn't mean stocks would go down. or even the sector as a whole is suffering. they pay the fine and they can carry on and maybe improve their practices. i think it's a similar case that's happening here with binance. what do you make of the new singaporean boss? i think it's positive, a good choice, it marks the difference between cz, who was prominent but crypto native. but the new ceo is much more traditional, finance—savvy and in touch with regulators and regulators in general so it would probably take binance in a good path moving forward. today is the biggest shopping day of the year in the united states, black friday. the retail sector has a lot riding on how much american consumers want to spend in the next 2a hours or so. while the us economy shows notable signs of strength these days, people are still feeling the pinch of inflation as well as high borrowing costs. we caught up with jcpenney�*s boss. we do see that our custo

ubs has a harsh warning.s not better with promotions doubling at nordstrom rack from this time last year. the only grace is sudden shift back to dressy clothes and brick and mortar shopping. would you be a buyer here? >> oh my goodness, after that lead-in, the answer is no. i agree with ubs it's in contrast right, last week we talked about gap, not the higher end retailer and saw 30% move on gap. here, i don't want to own it if you look at a chart, year to date, one year, three year, five years, ten years horrible chart to own if you think about what the opportunity is here, i don't think you see a flier here this is a $2.5 billion market cap. not an opportunity for a pop in my opinion one of the things cited in the last earnings report was theft they talked about shoplifting, historical highs how do they control that being a brick and mortar store at the higher end i don't know how they resolve that i think there's more pain in this chart to come. >> not going near it down to 3% see what the earnings tonight

here in zurich, the story has been about ubs. the stock rallying quite early on this morning.ge coming from ubs today was we are on track. the integration is on track. yes, there are challenges that we are delivering. they sunk their 2026 charge it -- targets. and that is a good plate to be -- good place to be. we will not know until february when we get the big strategy unveiled. today's numbers do not provide us much or give context. stocks in europe flat. we are getting a little bit of a rally stateside. we will wrap up on the u.k. route -- u.k. 10-year. the chief economist at the bank of england some ways pushing back on what the governor had to say, which is is too early to talk about cuts and today he started talking about cuts. he talks again on wednesday, tomorrow. he is going to accept that narrative, maybe it is not too early to talk about cuts. if he does do that there are a few goldfish at the bank of england. coming up the head of multi-assets is going to be joining us looking forward to this conversation. this is bloomberg. ♪ thanks to avalara, we can calculate l

angie newman is managing director at ubs private wealth management.nk you so much for joining us on this friday. if the consumer engine is starting to run out of power, what does that mean for where you want to be in this market? >> it means that what chair powell has been doing in the last 18 months is actually working. we didn't expect people would be spending more money as interest rates went up in the cost of goods went up. yes, the economy is softening here. it is by design. the consumer is weakening. perhaps the unemployment rate will also show some signs of weakening as well. what that means is instead of 1.5 jobs for everyone applicant, mayville we will be back to a one-to-one ratio. the economy is softening in a healthy way in our opinion. this is what the soft landing looks like. because of that, we think interest rates are at or close to the peak. i know that sounds a little contradictory based on recent data but there is so much recent -- recency bias in markets we just heard those segments with everyone talking about how volatile the 10 y

last week, ubs sold additional tier one notes pulling and roughly 10 times the bids for the debt on offers first such issuance since roughly $17 billion of credit suisse's at1's were wiped out, all part of the ubs takeover. a quick check on what else we are watching opportunity. add this two year investment diary, we get the eu auto forecast, plus final readings from spain and france. about 1:30 u.k. time, various data coming out of the united states, including retail sales, ppi, and manufacturing, all combined with some of the retail earnings numbers we get as well. target, for example,, t.j. maxx even home depot are reporting before the u.s. opening bell. geopolitics and focus, chinese president xi jinping meeting with president biden at the apec summit in san francisco. a lot can move these markets. we are going to have you covered right here on bloomberg television. . you don't want to miss our excuse of interview as well with portugal central bank governor, ecb governing council member mario centeno. that coming up on markets today, 8:30 a.m. u.k. time, an interview you do not want t

this according to a note from ubs. car company is -- ferrari has to wait quite some time and the exposure to ultra high net worth individuals basically, according to ubs, puts this stock in the drivers seat. it is not nvidia, but it is a decent rally, up by nearly 60% on the year. it is that lack of consumer exposure to the macro risk that is driving. ferrari nosing over. earlier on hitting a 52-week high. elsewhere, and gosar hitting a high. that stock is up by 2%. we are building up to the numbers at the beginning of december. this stock hitting another 52-week high. admiral out of the u.k. up by nearly 3%. the close is next. we will have more details then. this is bloomberg. ♪ i don't want you to move. i'm gonna miss you so much. you realize we'll have internet waiting for us at the new place, right? oh, we know. we just like making a scene. transferring your services has never been easier. get connected on the day of your move with the xfinity app. can i sleep over at your new place? can katie sleep over tonight? s

almost at $10 and ubs is $13 a share.g unusual, sitting the investment firm just issued a sell order to footlocker, they don't often do that. usually rebalance but when they say cell that is unusual. >> especially when sneakers are so popular, they said it's a tough environment for them to turnaround. that too much inventory, to any promotions. the third problem is nike, nike is giving more of their merchandise to companies like dick's sporting goods and selling direct to consumer themselves not as much to footlocker so they don't have inventory the people want. then said he said we have our own data that looks at credit cards or debit cards and if you look at the athletic category overall it is struggling a decelerated in the third qua quarter. stuart: a big a few movers over the holiday weekend. who did what. >> hunger games, that's reliant a cayman number one, $42 million apple and sold sony have napoleon 32 and half million. we have to talk about which 31.7 million over the weekend i did not see the ice all universal

describing this issue is more if you think about traditional finance in large banks, think of baby ubsfine for bad behaviour but it doesn't mean stocks as a whole would go down —— think of maybe. or even the sector as a whole is suffering. they pay the fine and they can carry on and maybe improve their practices. i think it's a similar case happening here with binance. d0 similar case happening here with binance.— similar case happening here with binance. do you make of the new singaporean - with binance. do you make of the new singaporean boss? i the new singaporean boss? positive, a good choice, but the difference between changpeng zhao who was prominent but crypto native but the new ceo is much more a traditional finance savvy and in touch with regulators and regulators in general so it would probably take binance in a path moving forward.- would probably take binance in a path moving forward. today is the biggest _ a path moving forward. today is the biggest shopping _ a path moving forward. today is the biggest shopping day - a path moving forward. today is the biggest shopping da

. >> 4 de cada 10 trabajadores latinos tiene un pa'l den ub ubilacin en sus empleos. >> constanza habajo. >> esto conlleva a pparte del do dolor del a perdida que se d deprima mas. >> no puedo para no lellegar un punto mas bajo .>> estosson enlatados, fijole. >>aaca ofcrecen despensan a pe personas mayores y los ayudan a inscribirse en programas pu pub publicos de salud y vivienda y entre los que reciben beneficios hay que los que batallan apar sostenerse. >> la renta esta alta y no a alcanza .>>eel 2024 se espera un aemnto del 3,2% para jubilamdos. >> no es facil. >> mcuchos siguen procueocupado. >> lrdesh noticias telemundo. >> con la navidad mas cerca se pronostica lo que los gre estadounidenses van a gastar .>> la colombian busca re resolver un problema baisco que cobra miles de visas el acceso a agua potable y hablamos no ella en lsegmeto planeta tierra. >>s esta noche no olvida cambia la hora en s reloj pero esto signifcia mas problemas en su salud y el bolsillo, le ex explexplci explicamos. >> aprovecha precios bajos y ofertas de black friday antes de black friday solo en targ

ubs laying out what they think happens with rates and the market the chief investment officer out with the 2024 portfolio strategy >>> free retail reports paint a different picture of the american shopper what earnings from walmart, burberry and macy's are telling us about the health of the consumer. >>> crowdstrike ceo on the cyber security landscape plus its partnership with the mercedes f1 team >>> meantime, had a pretty steady open but we lost ground s&p back below 4500, down eight points the focus is on retail just two days after cpi came in softer than expected and a day after ppi showed more of the same walmart spooking the market with warning of a consumer slowdown deflation has taken hold which could help shoppers but hurt the company sales. let's bring in mike santoli. i'm surprised if you were how overt they were about the possibility of deflation >> a little bit. i also feel like that's walmart's general orientation, how can we be a leader on price, and they're not going to get outcompeted so, therefore, they will turn more quickly than other retailers. i do think it comes

the council chose the position not of a leader, but of a follower, and he dedicated his speech to the uberisis, noting that the organization came under the influence, created, let's listen, in essence they are turning into an appendage of nato and the european union, the organization , let's admit it directly, is on the edge of the abyss, a simple question arises: does it make sense to invest efforts in its revival, will it ever be able to adapt to the objective realities of world development again become a platform for considering regional security problems based on answers. sergei lavrov noted that the bse itself and the european union are not turning a blind eye today to what is happening in the west, to the violations that are happening in the west, and indeed speaking under their noses, they also don’t see anything, from a simple example i gave the fact that the russian language was banned in ukraine, despite the fact that the country’s constitution itself guarantees protection for everyone, and even allows for a surge of nazi ideology. against this background , the mantra of the bru

speaking of ubs, the ceo spoke at the bloomberg new economy forum.ur friend that clients are attracted to fixed income. >> higher rates. the asset allocation thinking of clients back to a more traditional component on bonds, on -- people saying 6.5% kind of yield. 7% even with pretty good quality. do i really need to add risk? that has changed. it is a reflection of both risk aversion but also the attractiveness of fixed income. sonali: joining us now is daniel zwirn, ceo of arena investors, and andrea di censo of loomis. thank you for joining us. when you think about the cracks in the market, even the safer of markets, we are seeing so many investors piled more into investment-grade. excited about the yield, thinking they are safe. when you have double lien saying we will be specific in those markets. we are worried about places like regional banks and others. where in the safest markets are you worried? daniel: part of the issue is it is a bond by bond selection issue. the nature of the investment grade market is it is focused on coverage as well a

in terms of ubs' call, that stock should outperform bonds next year.licit in that or explicit in their report is that the relationship between stocks and bonds will flip over the course of 2024. by that, they mean that as yields go down, stocks will not benefit, as they have more recently. and that's because they think inflation will have come down toward target and lower yields do not necessarily imply disinflation, as much as they do maybe risk-to-gross. obviously, nobody knows the future. it's tough to make a really super-bullish case, based purely on equity valuation for the next year, we're at 18 times forward earnings for the s&p, but within the market, there are sort of pockets of cheapness or at least unduly punished areas, if you believe we're not going to get into a recession. >> mike, brent below 80. talk about what do you think -- i mean, to the degree we're benefiting from the mood of disinflation, what does oil say about that? >> it certainly seems a net positive at the outset, just from a broad sense of, what we're most worried about, bu

the chairman of ubs is warming does is warning that private credit is in trouble. is this a reaction to the private credit guys taking all the banking down? >> it's her reaction from the growth we've seen recently. this asset classes come from almost nowhere. private credit as a concept as existed for several years but it was $1.6 trillion. on wall street, we also have several good ideas, ideas that work and offer greater return for investors. when there is a frenzy that accompanies a good idea, it tips over into something more worrying, less regulation, not enough transparency. these are the concerns that could lead this asset class into a problem area this is a space that has yet to be tested by a serious crisis. sonali: the bank ceos are taking washington next week. they will talk about how dangerous private credit is. thank you very much. coming up next, bob iger is holding a rare town hall at disney for all employees at disney. we will discuss details on their streaming business next. this is bloomberg. ♪ i'm going to sell my life insurance cuz i don't need it

ubs is on the band wag goon.oes that make you more bullish, when you say okay, you should be with the "magnificent seven" and others? >> charles it was pretty lonely last fall when we were pounding the table on technology. so we need other folks to come in and drive the stock prices further but there is also good reason to drive the stock prices further because the total addressable market for cloud computing and generative a.i. is expected to grow exponentially between now and 2030. i mean i think goldman just said 7%, will contribute 7% of global gdp through a.i. and that is $7.1 trillion. fortune has argued that generative a.i. is 47 1/2% compounded annual growth rate through 2030. we know that cloud computing is taking a big chunk of tech i.t. spending. all of that makes people more productive t makes earnings growth stronger. margins improving and we can go over that if you like to. these are the companies -- charles: speaking of lonely, let's go back to the computer revolution, right? how all of this starte

ub analysis shows two-thirds of nhs maternity units in england done consistently meet safety standardsssed by the health rord later. the care quality commission says maternity has the worst safety ratings of all hospital services it inspects. the government said maternity care is of the utmost importance. >> you are live with bbc news. we can't independently verify the numbers provided by the hamas ron health minister, but we know children in gaza are dying at an unprecedented scale and rate. palestinians say more than 4500 children have died in just under next week's -- under six weeks, and many others have been orphaned or injured. you don't have to be an expert to note what the rear trauma this leaves behind or how it will inevitably drive the endless circle of violence in the years ahead. but there is one british charity that has been funding a clinic in gaza to try to rehabilitate some of these children. the man who runs it trained in bristol here in the u.k., mohamed l sharif. his clinics and his patients are in northern gaza, and some weeks ago, he ignored the order to evacuate.

but ubs now with some cautious views. just do not see a lot of catalyst for the shares going forward. you mentioned the outperformance for the nasdaq today, what has been happening for names like shopify which trades here in canada as well. and etsy, when you have these early reads on at least the spending online, black friday into cyber monday, those numbers coming in hotter than what they would have anticipated. investors watching what is happening with the e-commerce players per the question is whether that takes away from some of the store activity, retail activity people would get through being in a physical location. i guess we will find out through the course of the holiday shopping period. sonali: bloomberg took a look at the rising cost of living here in the united states and americans are continuing to show strong dissatisfaction with the economy. you now need to spend more than $119 to buy the same goods and services a family could afford with $100 before the pandemic. reade pickert wrote about this today. at w

look at ubs. >> that indicates that the battle is going on in the bond market. there we say, don't take on the fed. >> four times more. continued disinflation is going to fuel those cuts. they're telling us nothing. look at these markets and take us live where janet yellen is speaking at the news conference at the conclusion of the finance meeting that goes into that agenda, the sidelines and the meeting of presidents. >> fentanyl, maybe some sort of agreement. that will be the low hanging fruit but it has become a big topic ahead of the election where voters are very much in tune. >> 70,000 people are dying related to fentanyl. of course, the discourse has been about the economic outlook and the relationship between china and the u.s.. it's arguably the biggest ally that the chinese have. >> there will be small wins. >> let's get back to cpi. thank you so much for joining us. what are you making of the debate as we get to the data point, what would move the dial, you say you're waiting to increase duration. >> actually, i am hoping the number is lower than expe

slightly less than firms like ubs were looking for. wall streets this.oes it suggest to you maybe washington, d.c. is listening? >> it is very clear d.c. is looking at the market, right? you can get that in terms of how much in the next hour we're going to hear that they're looking at what's happening in tightening financial conditions, lending standards, ism, et cetera. the market likes it because they like short-term, excuse me, short-term issuance, more than long-term issuance, right? we've gotten to a point where we've phone from a inverted yield curve to, a flattening curve. now we're having a dialogue about the yield curve full stop. we have to remember in all of this we haven't talked about yield curves or bonds in like 15 years. so all of this stuff is new to investors. charles: right. i was looking at your note, what is interesting because all the things were new, so much money gushing into the economy more recently, listen we never had the kind of emergency that the pandemic brought. trillions and trillions of dollars you say the modern portfol

equities at ubs global wealth management joins us.book with scenarios linking gdp and yield into standard & poor's 500. which scenario do you believe in which mark -- believe in? >> that's an easy question. our base case, tom, is that we will see moderate games in the equity market -- moderate gains in the equity market in the coming 12 month. we are also going to see some nice gains in the bond market with yields falling, so our main message is we think there's a good chance that we can have a soft landing. that's really the core of our base case. economic growth in the u.s. will likely slow down. the student loan repayments have restarted. excess savings are becoming less pronounced. but we think the soft landing makes sense. tom: this is so important. i am trying to buy my first share this weekend. if i look at factor analysis, which of those factors will benefit next year? international versus u.s., value versus growth, and the other 14 factors. which matters to you? >> are factor that we like the most across stocks and bonds is q

to erupt, team from slumber. ukraine began its down full from the major spotlights on the floor with ubs of ations group was leaving alone with the high train to israel. i don't know the accurate number. i believe even more. and they actually exceed 200 over a 100 civilians were killed in this game. and maybe even even a 100, like my estimation is over 300. we noted 7 about 7 to soldiers from suspicious soldiers. special forces was dead in this keyboards full of the unit, only for, for the 13 this russian special forces come on to tells me he hasn't really come across us mercenaries and come back over the almost 2 years that they weren't looking for a fight. but rather chased social media content. americans can they only can american, non american or any other mess and really did not take direct vote in the ring encounter offensive. they did not advance ahead of the battle formations. perhaps i just wanted to advertise themselves and somehow reap the benefits of victory that they didn't know if the chief any victory. and that's why we haven't seen them. indeed much is a huge part of the

jonathan: the latest equity market call it ubs was good for the southside research.o happy to see. just fantastic. i shared some of the research with you. expect the s&p 500 to end around 4600. they are saying weaker growth hurting revenues that is the call from the team at ubs. tom: what they are looking at here -- i think there is a lot of ambivalence in this quarter and the guidance for it is as mysterious as the economic growth. who has a q1 and q2 view? what are you rating your outlook? all of us that wrong 13 months ago? jonathan: those outlooks need to be published in the next couple weeks. the call from ubs, deteriorating pricing power, rising interest expenses ultimately weighing on earnings. lisa: one area has been immune, the tech story. how much is the success of some of the biggest tech behemoths at the expense of some of the other tech companies? i think about startups and smaller companies that do not have economies of scale. jonathan: they also say steep acceleration in tech earnings, contributing to s&p 500. tom: that is a dan ives market. he refuses