the sources say a senior official of the state oceanic administration suggested that an unfavorable rulingas increasingly likely and called on others to cast away an optimistic illusion and make preparations. oceanic administration officials and experts have proposed steps to establish chinese control of the area before a ruling comes out. one proposal was to build an artificial island in the scarborough shoal. another was to take over the second thomas shoal in the spratly islands. the philippines effectively controls the shoal. another suggestion was to establish a chinese air defense identification zone in the south china sea. the sources say a senior foreign ministry official expressed concern that other parties including vietnam and indonesia may follow the philippines' example and file for arbitration. an expert on maritime security says there's concern among leaders in beijing. >> translator: if the ruling is unfavorable for china, it is likely to cause fierce repercussions in public opinion. to mitigate such public sentiment, the chinese government may demonstrate that it will stre

should she address these issues that have her so unfavorable head on?t of the unfavorables, whatever you want to call her rating is driven by untruths and misrepresentations about her past record. i served on the benghazi committee. i went through 8 prior reports and the testimony contained in the reports and i will tell you that the conclusion of it and once the information gets out there and people begin to hear the truth that's going to drive -- i think that's going to drive her success in november. the unfavor blts that she has are because people are just essentially lied about her and tried to tear her down at every turn and i'm going to tell you, people are tired of personal attacks in politics. they're tired of, you know, accusing other people and blaming other people. they want somebody who has a vision for this and donald trump has not. >> we'll see a lot more attacks from both sides. just a hunch as we draw toward november. congresswoman, thanks for joining us. >> thank you for having me. >> and make sure to tune in tonight at 10:00 p.m. easte

he has 58% unfavorable. that is improvement for tfor ths day and age. >> one thing that came clear even with morgan freeman's beautiful narration is there are no tangible achievements. the signature achievement they were telling us about this week is the deal that hatch and ted kennedy caught over when her husband was president. i think that's a problem. >> a very fascinating moment which was the democrats didn't try to make it an ideal logical battle. they said trump is uniquely unfit for president and a threat even to our democracy. that's very rare for what the democrats did. they didn't do it in 2012. they haven't run that kind in a long time. strategy? >> they want people to be afraid of the trump presidency, so afraid that they turn out to vote. >> there is a risk as well. i notice james sanders's wife is quoted as we have to unite against trump. he is a different kind of republican. the republican party is not all that great. >> maybe it plays better with some of the democrats. >> they are trying to g

she soars and has higher unfavorables in all three crucial swing states in this poll, florida, ohio and pennsylvania. overall trump is ahead in pennsylvania. they are need ohio and florida is its own cup of juice. when you figure in gary johnson and jill stein, with it's a kinky four-way his lead grows to 5 in florida and he's up 1:00 in ohio. stein and johnson should always be factored into these polls because they will be on every ballot in almost every state. as unfavorability climbs for every candidate, more disgruntled candidates will start to develop a wandering eye. dr. jill stein was disgusted by bernie sanders' sellout. she tweeted, if you don't want to vote for a war morning or racist billionaire there are more options. the political revolution will keep going. donald trump is still making the case to sanders' supporters. he tweeted, bernie sanders who lost most of his leverage has totally sold out to crooked hillary clinton. there will of course be plenty of mood swings and poll shift as events unfold and momentum shifts. it remains to be seen if she can withstand the donald

we look at unfavorables. that's what donald trump is bringing to the party here. sara, have you have this mix as described here, gingrich plus donald trump is it going to hurt that they both have high unfavorables? >> you know, the one hand it would seem very obvious that having high unfavorables for both candidates would be not ideal. on the other hand, donald trump has proven with hillary clinton's unfavorables nearly equally as high, he can break some of the traditional rules. gingrich brings a lot of personality to the table. a lot of policy proposals to the table, and i think he's certainly been the best able to garner his own media cycles, unlike chris christie or pence relied more on trump when they been supporting him. i think he's attracted to him because that have. >> let's not forget when it comes to chris christie, you have the controversy over what is called the bridge gate and nothing is settled. it will be the subject of a lot of commercials if he was on the ticket. and it's got to be a factor, too. i think of all the people we're talking about the

they do have this question about unfavorability. we'll have to leave it there. you will be back, so you will have some more opportunity to share your ideas with us. >>> next, a terrorism attack. a crowded baghdad shopping area leaves more than 150 people dead. what, if anything, can stop attacks like that and friday's in bangladesh. viagra single packs... so guys with ed can... take viagra when they need it. ask your doctor if your heart is healthy enough for sex. do not take viagra if you take nitrates for chest pain or adempas® for pulmonary hypertension. your blood pressure could drop to an unsafe level. to avoid long-term injury, seek immediate medical help for an erection lasting more than four hours. stop taking viagra and call your doctor right away if you experience a sudden decrease or loss in vision or hearing. ask your doctor about viagra single packs. i am a lot of things. i am his guardian. i am his voice. so i asked about adding once-daily namenda xr to his current treatment for moderate to severe alzheimer's. it works differently. when added to an

are very high and her unfavorables are very high.a competition between an environment that wants change and an environment very reluctant to go with the change that donald trump is proposing. >> alex castellanos, we just heard reince priebus making the point. they think because there is a changed environment out there with the wrong track, if donald trump can sort of reassure people past that bar of acceptability, voters who want change will feel free to go there. >> we've seen that. you know, when other events dominate the news, whether it's the shooting in dallas, guess what happens, donald trump's numbers actually go up here. the under -- >> they don't go up. she goes down, right? >> she goes down but the race tightens. this race wants to go for change and that's i think the big issue in this country. donald trump is leading hillary clinton by 25 points among voters who want to see change in this country and he is change. it's hard for her to make that case when she is so close to barack obama and been so big a part of the last ei

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here are the numbers, unfavorable rating, 57%. her favorable, 38%. this compares to 38% of the americans viewing her favorably and 57% unfavorably. not long ago, this is dramatically changed, i will point out, unfavorables are high on both sides she is underwater by 19 points? >> remember, she is favorable, highly favorable, 80 plus percent among democrats. that is what we got here, democratic convention. going towards the general i think part of the obligation at this convention is to try to revive or restore hillary clinton's numbers. i think it is one in 10 republicans have a positive image of hillary clinton. so that is where you see the drop-off. republicans want no part of her, sandra. the question is what about the people in the mid did i, the independents? they're shaky too on hillary clinton. so she has got to do something in this convention to try to restore that trust. by the way, let me come back to something julie was saying. i don't think it was token gestures to the bernie people, kennedy. i was talking yesterday with a guy who negotia

after a year of campaigning, they're both hovering around 55% unfavorable. not only that, you have 80% of the electorate having strong feelings either favorable or unfavorable on both these candidates. these numbers are baked in. everyone is looking for big nuanced jumps when in fact this is going to be a campaign of inches. if you look at the segmentation of the data, only 3% of the country like both candidates. 26% of the country dislike both candidates. there is going to be voters voting on election day that it's not that they're hiding their vote. they're trying to come to a conclusion of which person do i dislike most. that's what you're going to see with some undecided or some soft votes going into the election. but, you know, when i look at the data, i agree with adam. there is absolutely nothing in the data that shows that trump can't win this election. he has some plusses, he has some minuses. hillary has some plusses and minuses. both have huge minuses. at the end of the day, with this campaign, it's going to come down to, who do they perhaps disli

the unfavorability for hillary clinton is still very high. the trustworthiness is very high. but that doesn't necessarily mean that donald trump's unfavorables aren't also quite high when it comes to minority groups he's having a hard time reaching out to as minority groups include african americans, latinos and muslim americans who feel like they have been wrongly vilified by this campaign and ostracized by this campaign are worried it is getting worse. the statements do not help the campaign despite the attempts to refocus them. the one thing that people are talking about most right now is what donald trump said in repeated interviews that his wife wasn't able to speak, that mr. khan's wife who was standing next to him during the convention was not able to speak because perhaps her religion didn't allow it. she came out with an op ed in the washington post today which is extraordinary strong that says that donald trump said that maybe i wasn't allowed to say anything, that is not true. my husband asked me if i wanted to speak but i told him i could not. my religion says all

both candidates have the high unfavorable, something we have not seen before.ome of the poll abouts that get done, here is what is amazing. people say i'm voting for but in reality i'm voting against the other person. in other words, people saying they're voting against trump not because they support trump, but because they, what -- >> how much can conventions affect people's perceptions of the race, of the candidates? >> not very much. conventions have not been meaningful. we've had -- look, democrats had a horrible convention in 1972. george mcgovern gave his speech at 2:00 in the morning yourself think about that, and look what happened to the democrats four years earlier. unless there is a complete meltdown, probably get a little bit of a bounce. the bounce for the testimonies has been somewhere between 5 and 6 points on average, republicans between 4 and 5 points. so usually not enough and it fades. remember there are three debates that will follow. >> and let's talk about that. i was talking it to an obama insider who was key in both of his campaigns and

rating and then after a year of campaigning they are both hovering at 55% to 60% unfavorable, and nottorate is having strong feelings favorable or unfavorable on both of the candidates and these numbers are baked in. everybody is looking for the big nuanced jumps, and this is in fact going to be a campaign of inches, and if you are looking at the segmentation of the data only 3% of the country liked both candidates and 26% of the country disliked both candidates. so there is going to be the voters voting on election day and not that they are hiding the vote, but they are trying to come to the conclusion of which person do i dislike the most. that is what you will see with the undecided or the soft vote going into the election, but when i look at the data, i agree with adam. there is absolutely nothing in the data that shows that trump can't win this election. he has some pluses, and minuses, and hillary has some pluses and minuses, and both of them have huge minuses, and at the end of the day with this campaign, it is going to come down to who do they perhaps dislike the most as oppos

in our latest polling 55% of americans have an unfavorable view of her. how can someone be those unfavorability ratings bring the country together? >> well, the fact is she's trying. in every single thing that she's done during her public service career, she's trying and she's not making comments about people's ethnicity calling people rapists or murders. she's not threatening to ban people based on religion. she's somebody who is seeking very hard to earn the trust of the american people and to bring all of us together. >> she made the point friday and general flynn pointed out -- pointed this out that white americans need to better understand black americans. that can be very offputting to some white voters and she isn't doing so well with large segments of white is she sensitive to their need, to trump voters, how do you bring those people together? >> absolutely. and what hillary is saying is that each of us lives a different experience in the united states and i was heartened to see someone like newt gingrich acknowledge if you're black in country or

she is not looked at unfavorably by most of the american voters. clintons do not get outside in the morning and do not put clothes on unless they have taken a poll too see how americans think. they are trying to de humanize. she does struggle when it comes to like ability and trust. when does she have to do to make her come across more likeable? >>> oo i think she has one acknowledged she has work to do to build trust with voters. i don't think we are going to see any different hillary clinton. that's not who she is. i think president clinton laid out the case pretty well tonight when she talked about how much of a policy long she is. anybody who knows her knows how much she gets into the details. i don't think the american people are looking for her to give the speech on the stage and be martin luther king. i think they are looking for someone who is going to be able to say, i know we are facing challenging times but we are stronger together and someone who is going to bring the country together verses divide us with hate and very, very violent rh

. >> they both have unfavorable numbers, we all know this. >> it's minus 24, favorable, unfavorables. >> i think what we need to watch for the next couple days to see what the bounce is like post convention. and to your point, the middle will matter more than probably many elections prior. charles: what do you think? >> it was a stark difference between the two conventions. the effort was to not repaint trump but uncover more about him. this is why he's so passionate and he speaks off the cuff. he's a get it done kinds of fixer guy. at the democratic national convention it's let's repaint hillary clinton and recast her. it may have played to the democratic base. i don't think it brings over new voters. i just want to shout out to the clinton global initiative. now they have a way to pay for all the free stuff they promised. >> i don't think any of you guys answered the question, which one was choicer to the reality. maybe more people feel this is a dark time. charles: clinton and trump hitting the road today, trying to rally voters in the swing states. four or five states will decide

and the irony is they both have high unfavorables. so they will have to -- the idea for me was, let's make sure we portray donald trump in a light maybe the public doesn't know, but his children and friend know. if they can learn that, then those unfavorables start to go away. >> if a normal politician stand up there and says i'm going to do that and do that, you sort are of yawn. but when his daughter says he built this, he did this and he did this and when he sets his mind to something it gets it done. her speech and donald trump's' convention speech. manage you are in a room and you are discussing crime, and there is a social worker and a cop. you are his being to both, they both make sense, but different approaches. let's assume you get a phone call and there is a mugger outside with a gun. who are you going to listen to, the cop or the social worker. charles: every time we go outside is there a mugger waiting for us? >>we need both and hillary clinton is suggesting to the country that she is the person who can provide both. she w

both these candidates have very high you unfavorable rating and need to let you like them.clinton in the survey has a big problem, it's honesty. she is very big on the nine commandments. she has one that is a real issue for her. >> but trump has to get across the bar. hillary, everything is known about hillary. >> at the end of the day i think here how it resolves. peep don't end up voting for donald trump. they don't end up voting for hillary clinton. they end up voting for themselves, 71% in this survey, 68%, wrong track, we need a >> well, what the real die namics in this the voters are voting against somebody, the majority of each party's supporters are basically saying i'm not voting for donald trump. i'm voting against hillary. i'm not voting for hillary, i'm voting against donald trump in this course of this. if we had -- go to something i know, bill talked about, if there was any credible third party candidate that could catch fire that would sort of demand of the public that they consider them, they would be in a great position. >> yeah, but we put gary johnson, li

ratings. >> and look at that. 75 unfavorable for donald trump.little different. these guys are very well defined. the public understands them. i'm not sure how important it becomes but it will define if donald trump takes gingrich he has an attack dog. it might encourage him. >> so let's start with your picks. david, i want to start with your expertise. who do you predict would be the best vice presidential pick? >> dick cheney, sarah palin and b -- >> totally different than what we have on our screen. none of them were talked about the days, let alone, the short list is really only donald trump. that says there is one that made sense and two that i'm hearing a lot about. one is jeff sessions. it makes sense that he was the first to endorse donald trump. it is his plan that he must get immigration passed. she a serious conservative. the other two i'm hearing a lot about, mike pence's team feels very good about the meetings trump and pence have had. this week is the deadline where pence has to decide whether he will be governor or if he will be go

hillary clinton and donald trump get both low marks. 60% see trump unfavorably. 53% see clinton unfavorton will campaign together for the first time. president and secretary of allies. >> donald trump kept up attacks on hillary clinton asking who pays for the travel on air force one and pointing to her own fbi investigation. trump is also defending a controversial tweet that shows a star over a pile of money. he tweeted, quote, dishonest media is trying their absolute best to depict a star of david rather than a sheriff's star or plain star. the tweet was deleted after it was posted on saturday. >>> chief correspondent for new york times magazine and contributor. he joins us from washington. mark, the president is anxious to get out on the campaign trail. where has he helped hillary clinton and where has he hurt her? >> he helped her as president. president obama's approval ratings are in the 50s. when you compare that to where he was when donald trump starting beings the republican front-runner almost a year ago, it was 20 points lower. obviously, it's a matter of barack obama the sitt

the proposals he put forth to have to pulitzer prize but the pulitzer prize but unfortunately and unfavorably he lost both times. >> what is the importance of the chicago defender to pluck journalism and chicago itself? >> it was a local paper and what's important about the chicago tribune is the national printing and local printing. local you can see here it was important because they had local news and what was happening all over the city. it was something businesses could go in and have their names printed, the local ladies club and organizations they were working with and then you have the national edition that came out once a week and that's the paper that was smuggled down into the south in the civil rights era on the unofficial contract the publishers had. >> did to defend or promote these items? >> absolutely. we pulled over six different collections and each of them contain writers. he encouraged local authors so that is where gwendolyn brooks was published for the first time wawho was the first african-american woman to win the prize. you can see he was the editor and this is a colu

you look at the unfavorable numbers. hillary clinton is at 53% which is bad.numbers, plus you have the weekend they had. hillary clinton sitting down with the fbi facing tough questions about the e-mails. donald trump coming off of this twitt eter controversy that a l of people think is anti-semitic. >> there's no doubt we're in uncharted waters. both these candidates have numbers that are higher than any nominees we've seen. it actual hi ply puts some atte on the vice president, but also the conventions which are the last big chance before the debates to command an audience and tell your story in an unfiltered way. both of them are going to try to use their conventions to tell a positive story. but i have to believe we're going to see a very negative campaign from now until november. >> the unfavorables coming to a theater near you this fall. david, when candidates are this high with unfavorables and considered unlikable, does this motivate people to go to the polls because they hate the other guy so much? >> that remains to be seen. i do think there will be

she has very high unfavorables, second only to donald trump.he vast majority of the american public does not trust her. tonight they want people to get a different sense of her as a human being, her values, and maybe to chip away at some of that distrust of her. this video, done by shonda rhimes, yes, i will explain, i am a fan of those shows like "scandal" and grey's anatomy. and narrated by morgan freeman. they're pulling out all the stops to give the people a warmer, gentler sense of hillary clinton. >> we're going to listen to a little more of the video in just a minute but we wanted to get around the horn here quickly. juan. >> i think this is an interesting political season. last week in cleveland, we saw so many of donald trump's children as the kind of character witnesses for donald trump. i think he was at a deficit for other people to speak. so it became a cascade of family members. but tonight we have chelsea clinton really speaking and, i think, in a singular mode. she's not a politician. she is not her father, president clinton. sh

but with the most highest unfavorables since we started doing that poll question here at cnn, the bar high. >> she should be grateful she's running against donald trump. polling between conventions is useless. if we believe the polling, john mccain and mitt romney would both be president of the united states. >> it's significant because this is the first post convention bounce we've seen in nearly two decades. >> that's absolutely not true. >> since 2000, yes, it is. first six-point convention bounce we've seen since 2000. go read cnn's articles. they say that. that is the truth. >> john mccain had a five-point lead on barack obama and lost that election by seven points. if it gives you false hope in this period of time, that's great. it didn't mean anything before and doesn't mean anything now. >> it is true on favorability, terrorism, who is best able to handle the economy. he bounced on 15 metrics. it means something when something is happening that hasn't happened since the year 2000. >> independents, coming out of the convention that's where we see the big swing. they swing signi

she has tremendous unfavorables to over come. more work needs to be done than one speech delivered about her. >> michael bloomberg, was speaking to donald trump. nothing on earth, that is more personally devastating to him than to be slammed as an incompetent crook and con artist bitth richest man in the world. one thing that donald trump really respects and it is really rich people. to have somebody who is legitimate billionaire like michael bloomberg dismissing his business acumen, saying he is not one of us, he doesn't know how to run a business. he is complete con artist. if you are donald trump you expect to hear that from barack obama. you expect to hear that from joe biden. donald trump was the guy at queens looking at manhattan and wanting to make it big. michael bloomberg embodies what making big in the new york city financial markets would be. to have that guy slam donald trump i'm sure was one thing donald trump was most offend by. harris: i live in jersey, itched din take what he said to be offensive. i have a lot of

the clinton campaign is hoping to sway the 20% of republicans with an unfavorable view of trump. >> we're going to be visiting a few places where people are making things. donald trump talks about make make a thing except bankruptcies. >> trump has a rally scheduled in springfield, illinois. >>> the man convicted of killing a 21-year-old mother has been sentenced to life in prison without parole. dante taylor was convicted of first-degree murder in the death of 21-year-old sarah goode. goode's body was found after a week long search in 2013. she was raped and stabbed over raising her young daughter. >> she is a beautiful girl. her life is so short now. i don't know what i'm going to tell her daughter when she gets a little older. >> defense insists taylor is innocent and hinted at an appeal. >> new at 11:00 investigators in new jersey say they arrested and charged a man for stealing half million dollars from an elderly person. 33-year-old transferred money from the victim's account after gein he is charged with elder abuse. he is in the bergen county jail. >>> four mysterious zika infecti

opinion of donald trump. 60% of women have an unfavorable opinion. 87% of african-american. meet me in a broader fashion. >> we know they'll go after hillary clinton and assassinate her character and attack her pretty ferociously throughout the week and her numbers will go down. what we don't know is how they will sell donald trump to the american public. what his challenge is going to be is to convince the american public that he is ready and he can be commander in chief because when they look polls also they give hillary clinton the edge on experience and take the job on day one. the speakers will have to sell donald trump and make him viewed as some of the oval office. >> donald trump the entertainer has been part of the united states for a really long time and part of the entertainment and now he needs to look like a statesman and look like someone people can trust to do pretty much everything. >> and that's yet rollout was such a blown opportunity because obviously trump advisers are worried about the critical demographic of married women, age 35 to 55 who are worried a

difference between unfavorables and whether you will vote for him.re are people in office i don't particularly like. i don't necessarily want to have a beer with them but i think they are strong leaders scl protect me and lead my country. don't necessarily have to lik someone. also there is a factor what i'm saying about the bullying and pressure on women, many women are afraid to even talk about their support for donald trump. every time i go and do a show or something, i can't tell you the hate mail and e-mails i get trying to shame me. so we have such, such ughry rhetoric going on right now. we need to change that and let women come out with their support. >> all right. we got to wrap. happy fourth to you and all of you. thanks for joining me hey there, starting your search for the right used car? i don't want one that's had a bunch of owners just say, show me cars with only one owner find the cars you want, avoid the ones you don't plus you get a free carfax® report with every listing it's perfect. start your used car search at carfax.com >>> thi

. >> when you look at the unfavorables which are very high, unprecedented, that you would have two candidates such high unfavorables, when you look at that, and you're an independent, what you mention that breaks the difference is likability? so maybe we're making too much out of that? >> it's a good point. it's who i know personally. i've had the good fortune of knowing donald and melania. i had a chance to chat with hillary long ago when she was in the white house. hillary, don't underestimate hillary clinton. don't hate. don't hate. respect your adversary. hillary is smart, she's able, she's at the top of her game. it was smart that she reached out to everybody last night. so it's good. but i have to do it on a personal note. i've had the chance to meet both people. donald more of a regular new york guy. that's what appeals to me. but, you know, may the best person win. and can we stop the vitriol, harris? you're one of the nicest people, i don't understand it. >> i like from each and speaks to the issue of how tight this race already is. you factor in the convention bounces and it gets ev

>> i'm saying he's losing to somebody who has a dramatically high unfavorability ratings because of his message discipline and lack of focus on some of the issues that are really going to matter and bring him that last persuadable sliver of the electorate he's not reaching. >> so he's missing an opportunity to really take her on and he's missing an opportunity to focus on the issue, as you say, which is why you're here to talk about the issues. that's it. >> so typically when two republicans are fighting over donald trump, i would step back and keep my mouth shut but i'd just offer something on this table, which is that, you know, donald trump is missing something that hillary clinton has, which is a real prescription for progressive growth in this country, for jobs, for infrastructure, for investment in education, and his sort of asymmetric warfare that he engages in on an ongoing basis, whether it's an attack here, an attack there, occasionally he lands punches and all the republicans say, yay, yay, that's the donald trump we want, the one who really hits hillary hard. but really i th

americans say clinton's e-mail scandal will effect their vote. 60% of americans say they have an unfavorable decision and that's the latest heading into the convention. >>> even republicans are aware of trump saying the gop is not unified behind him. only 38% of republicans say they are satisfied with trump. we are joined more with tracie potts in cleveland. what are you hearing about tonight's program? >> reporter: well, tonight's theme is make america safe again. so they are focusing on things like isis, attacks overseas and things here at home. there is a whole presentation on ben gaza. general mike flynn was on the short list to be trump's vice president and we'll here from rudy giuliani along with a number of other people. they open this afternoon for business. they have to adopt a platform. the rules for this convention which will include binding delegates to vote for the person who was the winner in their state. there is still a group that wants to try to overturn that. they just don't seem to have enough votes to do so. as you just heard a lot of security concerns outside but inside

unfavorables for trump are 57%. unfavorable for hillary, 55.6%.t these conventions are playing with? rather than, doing all again, to praise their own candidates, focusing more attention condeming the other guy? >> i certainly think both parties think it is important to highlight the shortcomings of the opposing candidate. we saw that at the rnc and certainly seeing it at dnc i actually think speakers on both sides are trying to make the case for both candidates but they need to drive the point home. david: easier to attack the other one? >> of course it is easier, certainly is. there are ways you can pick apart records on both sides here which is very difficult point, specifically for the democrats because hillary clinton has been in public office for so long. i disagree. i think joe biden did make compelling case. david: i don't -- we'll talk more specifically about that, in the second round. morgan, what are you hearing? you're there right now. what are you hearing about what she is going to say tonight? what about her tone? will she talk about

he's an unfavorable guy but this is an opportunity to do something about that. but my big question is, will he do that move the ball forward a little bit bit or is he bristling with resentment about the melania issue. and will they throw the script out and get trump unleashed? >> rose: he needs to give a well-written speech? >> a speech that is wider appeal than here is what i'm proud of, which is i don't think he can do. >> 90% of it has to did with the last two nights. 90% of any momentum comes in the last two nights and 80% of that comes from the last night. i remember we tracked al gore's convention in 2000. the first three nights were awful, it didn't move at all. the last night, the kiss that happened, he moved eight points in two days. if he gives a speech he can get into a tie with hillary clinton. because next week -- right now she's five or six points behind. if he leaves this convention and still behind hillary clinton, huge problem. >> they have certain structural advantages in the demography. they want to lock in that five or six point lead and sit

and as far as prosecution -- look for that perjury case. >> in the meris poll, 64% see him unfavorablyse. >> quinpiak gets reversed. >> they don't love the candidates no offense to you guys. but richard -- >> that's fair. >> david raises a good point, that fbi primary, if you will, they may have exonerated her legally, chose not to charge, but the voters get it. they heard what comey said in the first half of his remarks that day, that she misled over, and over, and over again, the american people. >> and they've gotten it along e megan. those numbers are already baked in the poll, which is why bernie sanders did so well in the primary. >> then why is she follow something. >> none of these take the fact that he endorsed her? the quinpiak poll -- >> if you're saying on her hones honesty, why is she going down? >> i'm saying where david is right, it is a techtonic shift. you see this all the time. it's standard -- >> they're getting slighted for a reason and that appears to be -- you tell me, the fbi primary and perhaps what we've seen in the country with respect to police and you know,

on -- 16% democrat you'd open unfavorably. now it 43%. perhaps, the more interesting data point, the one that suggests that issues are no longer ideological, but have become a matter of lifestyle and identity. the fact that in 1960 4% of democrats and 5% of republicans would have disapproved of the child marrying somebody from the other party. what are those numbers now? 33% of democrats but disapproved -- would disapprove and 49% of republicans. i pulled out some fun facts. no one, you study this. is polarization real? >> i think it is true that polarization is real. what would we have studied this over a much longer history is to look at patterns of rollcall voting in congress. one of the best matters of how partisan or bipartisan our institutions have been over time. a headline fact is that the levels of bipartisanship in congress are the lowest levels since reconstruction. to put that into perspective, the party system based on the regional cleavages might just resolved civil war had more bipartisanship than the current co

now, it should be noted that, in the same poll, 55% have an unfavorable view of hillary clinton.r a lot of americans, this election is the choice between two terrible options. it's like going to the break room and seeing that the only snacks left are half a plain doughnut and a racist. [ laughter ] [ cheers and applause ] so now, many d.c. republicans, after weeks of fielding tough questions on everything from trump's attack on a hispanic judge to his proposed muslim immigration ban, are trying all different kinds of tactics to avoid talking about trump. last week both mitch mcconnell and paul ryan said they would not be taking questions about trump on a daily basis and senator john cornyn of texas declared he's done talking about trump until after the election, nearly five months away. "wish me luck," he said. yeah, good luck, buddy. [ light laughter ] when i took this job, i thought i'd be making jokes about republican nominee jeb bush. you did this to me! [ laughter ] i blame you! meanwhile, other republicans have basically resorted to running and hiding in the elevators. for

certainly unfavorable as very high among voters on both sides of the aisle. thank you very much. jehmu greene, brad blakely. >> thanks, kelly. >>> the republican national convention is a little more than two weeks away. donald trump says speaking thoughts with the high profile event are full so the question remains who exactly will be taking the stage? right now live in our new york city newsroom with the latest on this. >> we now know that donald trump will be releasing the list of republican national convention speakers on wednesday, according to trump's twitter account. trump says the speaker list is totally filled and there is even a waiting list. he has said he wants to include more non-politicians and critics point out, well, that's because the presumptive gop nominee has historically high unfavorability and as a result many of the party's rising stars and leadership are choosing not to attend this year's rnc. in an interview with "the new york times" trump says he's thinking about asking sport celebrities like serena williams and don king to participate. his children will

with trump's unfavorability rating the worst for a presumptive nominee heading into a convention in the history of say they're satisfied with him. >> if the public sees the donald trump i've gotten to know, he will not be stopped. >> reporter: prebus defending his policies. >> donald trump is calling for a total and complete shutdown of muslims entering the united states. >> reporter: today arguing donald trump has pivoted on his stance on muslims entering the u.s. and indiana governor mike pence is not a fan of negative campaigning. he'll have to show how he'll reconcile trump's tone, too. >> i think this is a good man who's been talking about the issues people care about. >> but name calling? >> and donald trump's candidacy has been about the issues that people care about. >> i call her crooked hillary. she's crooked hillary. he woefts -- i didn't ask him to do it, but i don't think he should do it. because >> and look for chris and tom sherwood's report tomorrow, and throughout the rnc convention. >>> new at 11:00. an underage drinking party in rockville turned deadly after one of th

. >> experts are predicting an unfavorable ruling for china, but what would this mean for beijing, diasuke? >> the ruling could deny the legitimacy of the nine-dash line. but regardless, china stands firm on its claim. >> so, it's clear china is not likely to change its stance after the ruling, but if leaders refuse to abide by it, relations with other countries could be in jeopardy, and regional tensions could increase. beijing appears to have anticipated all of that. leaders have established some cooperations with their counterparts in manila towards bilateral negotiations. >> china wants to engage with the philippines for peace, for stability, for cooperation, for dialogue, for diplomacy, for friendship. that's the better way to do business between any neighbors in the world. >> so many people in the region and around the world are waiting for this ruling and china's reaction to it. >> that was daisuke azuma in beijing. >>> the united states has reached a deal with south korea to deploy an advanced missile defense system in the country to counter possible threats from north korea, but c