factor but maybe not the one you're thinking of worst rashard is back on the program to demystify the vix the ball of killing the index all that in our sights but first we had right there's a mad line let's go. the race to blunt the impact of brecht's that leads our global report today as the governor of the bank of england makes a dire warning about the consequences of a no deal brecht scenario for the united kingdom and the world on tuesday the british central banker mark carney said at an event sponsored by the financial times quote we should not be under any illusions no deal breck's it would be a shock for this economy and send a signal globally about the prospects of re founding globalization meanwhile prime minister theresa may is pleading with parliament for two more weeks to somehow coax a better offer from e.u. negotiators a motion to that effect is expected to come to the to a vote in the house of commons on thursday the deadline for the u.k. to leave the european union deal or no deal or perhaps rescind their previous notice is marched. march twenty ninth that's forty four day

you are so but give us an update on where the vix has been is it been sort of crazy well the vix right now you know down to its four months lows i mean obviously there has been a very nice recovery in stocks does that mean if it's at a four month low does that does that mean boars that that equities are pretty stable in general well generally kind of inversely correlated with stocks so that's why it's called fear factor every so on it's low if it's low generally it's associated with upward movement in stocks and we have seen a very nice recovery in stock prices since last december and therefore the vix is higher the prices are generally fall ing in equities and well in general you know it's kind of the other way around the stock prices are driving the vix in many cases so if if there is a big correction in stocks and obviously people are rushing to buy protection downside protection on equities so they start but buying out of the money put options and you know the high option prices or the higher cost of protection against further downside drives up the volatility and so we have seen r

it's been above 18 the interesting thing here is that the v-vix, the volatility of vix is actually at-month low so i do think people are a little too complacent, and we know, as we saw this time last year, that things can get really ugly in a hurry. >> do you agree? do you think it's a sign investors are not being cautious enough >> well, i agree with what scott is saying in terms of the move omt the vix. the major move was in january. not much of a move yet it's gone from 16.57 now to where we're at today in the 15 handle having said that, it seems to be about baby bear's porridge, right about where it should be given the last hurdle, now that we have the j. powell put. forward guidance is bad. that forward guidance would get cured by a trade deal and there's optimism coming from both sides so you never really want to buy the vix when it's looking this complacent but it's probably placed just about right. >> currently at 15.32. lalimore on the markets and votity, head to futuresnow.cnbc.com. see that's funny, i thought you traded options. i'm not really a wall street guy. what's the

scarlet: i'm looking at the vix and it is sub 15. averaged 15.2 in february, 19 in january, 4.6 in december. there is no volatility or fear in the market it seems. come late march, you might see things pick up a little bit in terms of volatility with brexit, china trade discussions heating up as well. what's positioning the you see ahead of late march? our people positioning for pickup in volatility? scott: people have been talking about volatility, and we have been. we had a discussion in our strategy group where we were like ok, 10 years trapped in a range, and s&p is back to fair value, we have had a few other financial markets that have been trapped in a range like the dollar for quite a while. are we over anticipating how much volatility we are going to get? clearly, we will get volatility. see good trade news, there's probably more downside than the market is pricing in positives out of trade for sure. if brexit is a no deal, that's will probably show volatility. there are a few things that have the potential to cause volatilit

the vix got to 37 at the end of last year.ery much in credit options. etf attracts high-yield credit. the surge in hedging through cuts and put spread's last year -- puts and put spread's last , costly elevated prices levels of insurance like we had never seen before. it tells you something about the credit investors' concerns that what was happening was not an equity event and was bleeding over to credit. what makes it difficult is whenever that he wants to do the same thing at the same time -- everybody wants to do the same thing at the same time, the pricing protection goes up. there is a tremendous amount of put options in hyg that will roll off because the market is recovering so quickly. that is a value trap we watch on the derivative side. francine: dean curnutt, thank you so much. coming up on bloomberg "daybreak america," the head of the spanish election will speak to the foreign affairs minister at 7:00 a.m. in new york. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> because of independence. is bloombergs "surveillance." tom and francine f

you look at the vix, it has come down. i have a year to date look at the vix. 2019 at 26. now we are down under 14. is that a concern? mark: i don't think so. we will have more volatility and pullbacks, but is this a time when people want to be buying the vix, i don't see why. unless they are buying it as a hedge because there is not exposure otherwise. the big factor is the trade talks. as long as there is a truce, it will be a good year for risk assets. now we could get a deal and maybe a better one that people were expecting. there seemed to be some kind of delay but now it looks like we might get a genuine trade deal which means tariffs won't come through. if that happens it should overall be a good year. people looking to generally -- i will emphasize trade talks remain the most dominant thing. if they break down, this will fall apart. matt: let's talk about the mliv question of the day. dollar-yuanore tests its 2018 low? what are you hearing? 624.18.e low was it is quite a way away. people are suspicious of the rally. it has caught people offsides since t

i want to look at a one-year vix. of the next -- going back to february 2018, that is my initial vols spiked up. since then, we have had low volatility. a little bit in q4 and then again when the equity markets bought them up. vix heading lower throughout all of 2019, down to a 15 handle. very different from the 35 handle one year ago today though knows short vol trades gave out. interesting to see the s&p 500 and the 200-day moving average providing key support through all of 2018. we know that it's been bumping up against the 200-day moving average three times. classic headline resistance level. we are closing up against near the 200-day moving average. need to see we multiple days of this to see if it can become a support line again. very interesting that we are again closing in on that average. looking at the individual movers, church and light is off about 8%. they say margins are being pressured from tariffs. this is the same story we are hearing from kimberly-clark. is another one. 56% of their revenue comes fr

now the vix is north of 14 so i think the vix is telling you the next couple of weeks that maybe this market is going to turn. >> guy makes a great point because that's what i was talking about the other night in terms of what did i do with my portfolio? implied volatilities are low, 14 in the vix, and because of that it gives you an opportunity to still be in the market but with a lot less risk exposure. >> f a lot more head over to trading nation.cnbc.com. >>> as faang sits out the rally and growth takes a back seat, another group of stocks is taking the reins one portfolio manager says this will be the year of the value trade. he will explain. >>> later, pete najarian is acce stepping up to give us one name that he thinks will heat up your portfolio this winter. yes, that is a hinting mu me asmoy"igchor"ft ne rht after this ♪ ♪ put your data to work on the cloud that drives business. the ibm cloud. the cloud for smarter business. the ibm cloud. ♪ ♪ let's go from designing... to bringing it to life. with financing solutions from american express. chat with us today and let's make it

weeks of markets moving higher, vix moving lower that's the whole point i think expectations are very different than they were three months ago and that's for markets enough to keep them inching higher. >> and it's better if the fed is easing for markets we've known that over the last nine years or so that's the entire point. actually the whole last bull market is because fed has been easing the entire time that's good for stocks it's not good for the world, but it's good for stocks in the short run. if you're asking for other places to play that haven't run as much as the stock markets, why not energy if we're getting a turn-around in europe and in china and we're saying maybe it's going to spill over here to the u.s., you're going to need a lot more oil i think energy is the way to play it. >> here's a plot twist, though. >> i like when you do this. >> a what? >> a plot twist. a trade war with the eu. they just said they would target companies like caterpillar, xerox, samsonite if the u.s. decides we're going put auto tariffs on they have their list of tariffs ready to go. >> so if

the vix is a representation of it, but isn't a great lead indicator.ld expect volatility to stay evaluated here and this is -- there's a two-year lag between the shape of the yield curve and volatility, which would intimate that we're still going to have vol. the drivers could be china, it could be brexit, it could be a whole bunch of things. leads you to kind of more barbelled approach we do think the cyclicals got beat up too badly and there's some value there, but we think that household personal care products should be in there as a hedge against that increased volatility more barbell, it's not as easy a call anymore >> jonathan, let me just go back to that china thing, briefly we're heading into another election cycle what gives you the confidence that we end up in a better place with this china thing, if it continues to drag out. >> election cycle, in a year and a half from now? >> yeah, why shouldn't china just hold their breath and hope that the pressure comes off because of politics? >> i think that's actually the risk the u.s. does not projec

i've got to own some puts because the vix is relatively low. maybe something is really wrong, i don't know, but i need some protection. >> are you leaning bullish >> i do. >> you raise a good point in terms of volatility. the vix is so low right now. >> it's come down from that area in late december we talked about it in the 30s. i expect it to be above 20 here it is 14, 15, something like that. but we have crossed a lot of different barriers in front of us that we've done okay on the government shutdown, that's no longer here the fed. people are no longer worried about what's going on with the fed. earnings season. when you see some beats and revenue and some of the guidance coming out of some of these very big names, it sort of gets everybody sort of riled up i've got to get myself back in here i see value -- >> you mean bullish as well. despite what the bond market is telling you and what the gold market may or may not be forecasting. >> i have flipped, though. i sold probably half my stock positions. at one point in time just a week or two

the vix feature is 1560. june or july, it is 17. the vix because cash settled. i was looking out until june. with the vix at about 1730 in the june future, you can buy the 2021 bull call spread for a $.20 debit. this is a good way to not be short in the market but have a lot of upside potential if the market does correct. i cannot fathom the market will continue to go up to speed and this vast. i will be looking to take half of this. but this is my better way of playing this instead of being short, which i have been for the last six weeks. i can't even sleep at night because i wake up in the futures are up 12 every morning. abigail: risk control is everything. we did not talk about the fed. that seems to have the market's back right now, but last year, january was one of the best month of the year. we can have more of the same ahead. andrew, thank you so much for joining us for options insights. back to you. scarlet: thank you so much. as we approach the close here, we are in the midst of a rally in u.s. stocks. points.gaining about

the vix is calm, under 17. two year yields, actually the 10 year yields, 2.69%.il making gains, just below $55 a barrel right now as the cuts come into effect more quickly than the market was anticipating. other asset classes, the commodities, you can see that steel is up 1%. trading well,cies the canadian dollar stronger by a quarter of a percent, or .25%. and i can tell you that the rmb is trading weaker by just a few ticks. guy? guy: let's take a look at what is happening today. christina is joining us, leading market live coverage in europe here. the u.s. data is goldilocks-like. the fed is on hold. and then we have an ism number coming out, 56, really strong, and not much inflation. thestina: you know, we saw immediate market reaction in the stock market. we saw eme's hitting session highs. it took some time for the reaction to filter through, it was a little bit of a messy report with payrolls. the headline number was great, in theory, but all of the downriver visions put a little bit of a damper on the party. eventually, the dollar found its direction and

the vix is up a little bit today. still a relatively low historical level again, that index, which is also an investment vehicle of its own, could surge at any moment let's bring in joe, senior market analyst at x street with everything going on, it's almost hart to keep track. are you surprised the volatility index isn't moving higher? gin canadian and pakistan. >> trump -- the korea deal, the korea situation is one that only accepts the markets when they start launching missiles it's really not one that has any impact, except for its fear factor, and this summit didn't end badly. it didn't produce a deal, but they seemed ammicable. trump made a point that they're going to continue to talk. i don't think that's going to be much movement. where the relationship is between the united states and north korea now is infinitely better than where it was two and three years ago. that's really the take-away from this deal. i don't think there's any sense that this is going to escalate >> the north korean -- listen, the north

and that would raise vix the fact is, you've got a lot of macro-investing going on, and that suggests of the things i like, speaking of correlation, is the relationship between the relative strength of financials and the health of the overall market i do like the fact that now financials are starting to outperform that's a good indicator. in fact, the relative strength of financials is pretty high correlated to the overall direction of the market. so, financials is a sector that i'm keeping an eye on. >> yeah. that's -- yeah, that's key to watch. guys, good start to the hour appreciate that very much. a lot to watch today, keith and jack we'll see you soon >> thank you >> thanks, guys. >>> and ahead of uber and lyft's highly anticipated ipos this year, our deirdre bosa is taking a look at the expected structures for both deals. what that means for investors. deirdre, the companies look similar on your phone, but not necessarily as public companies. >> yes, they're both ridesharing companies, have similar businesses, but they could look like very different public companies. they could

the vix falling for nine straight sessions. this is a record. but is it all clear?e, another fear gauge, measures options as well but only on a three-month basis. the vix is really a wide range of options. it's been increasing. the highest since october. some tension still left in the market. nejra: thank you so much. we are asking the question on mliv come all about the trade truce. how long till dollar yuan passes its low. .ou can join the debate let's get the first word news with annabel drool and in hong kong. president trump has delayed increasing tariffs on chinese imports citing substantial progress in trade talks. withms to hold a meeting china's president xi jinping in florida to continue the pack. he didn't say how long expects the extension to last. that whole relationship has been outstanding. we got ourselves into a position of strength for the first time in about 35 years. probably a lot more than that. has been terrific. we want to make a deal that's great for both countries. theresa may has again delayed a vote on brexit. it will take place this week

perspective, the s&p back to the highest nine-day rsi that its had since probably august same thing with the vix, back down to levels before we october 4th started to spike and sell off. bulls five weeks in a row. whether you look at bull/bear indicators or the green index, all these things tell you people have gotten greedy lately. you're right back to the 200-day. this is a major level for markets, 2750 to 2800. it's hard to say you should be very excited when the industrial production data we got out of europe and the rest of the world on monday and tuesday was terrible this morning industrial orders out of germany tell you their economy is slowing fast. the trade balance from january in the u.s this is all lagging like no big deal but it's telling you things aren't great. >> so all that paper is short-term pain. is apple an investment versus semis as a trade or is apple still a trade because of what the semis are telling you? >> for me apple is still an investment it's something that's been very, very long term i've been literally in there no decades. >> the semis were telling you bad things

peak uncertainty means the vix is north of 25, that's one you mentioned the fed. the fed seems to be easing so where do you see these peak uncertainties? >> it's really the angst when you talk to both the bulls and the bears, they have very low conviction as to where the next move is you guys started the first ten minutes of the show building the wall of worry. it's huge. there's no question about it in our view it's very much in the price because when we talk to clients we think that they're girding for earnings growth in 2019 of zero to 2% you're going to have someone on tomorrow that will be talking about that. >> 17 times earnings doesn't scare you? >> as long as the fed is staying off the rate hikes it doesn't scare us >> you think we'll get zero rate hikes this year. >> we do. >> could we get a cut? >> we don't think so we look at it this way, we have been on zero hikes since january the 1st. our assumption is if we're wrong they will hike but that's because the economy is better than expected and the market is likely higher. we don't think a cut is in the c

. >>> and vix acquisition is recalling hundreds of pounds of chicken.py bloody mary chicken and southeast grocers brand marsala chicken and mediterranean herb chicken. produced from august 7th to october 13th of last year. the company shipped to retailers nationwide. people who bought the items should throw them out or return them. >>> meanwhile, tobacco use among teens is on the rise. the cdc says the increased use of e-cigarettes among middle and high school students is to blame. the agency says 2018 was the largest single year increase in tobacco use ever recorded. that reversed a decades-long downward trend. last year, 4.9 million middle and high school students used tobacco products. that's up by more than 1 million users from the previous year. >>> the new owners of the toys "r" us want to bring the brand back to the u.s. you may remember more than 700 toys "r" us stores nationwide closed last spring. however, the new company, true kids brand, kept 900 stores open in europe, asia and india. the new owners plan to open more stores overseas. they're

sector you want to watch russell 2000 if you don't believe -- you don't have to be in the bear camp vix is low, buy some puts, protect your portfolio there's a show coming on right after this that will tell you how. >> is it concerning that we've had record outflows out of equity markets >> isn't it not surprising that we've had record outflows out of equities >> really? for the last month for the last month while the market is on track, we've had 11 straight weeks of outflows $83 billion coming out of the market while the market has just roared higher. who's buying the market? who is it? index players? >> it could be short covering, it could be people trying to get ahead of the central banks, it could be all of that to your point, where's the support underneath it? that's what concerns me. at some point there's not a lot of gas out there and it doesn't take much for this to stall. i just think you have to be careful. >> the flip side is that the markets have come to these levels with these outflows happening. >> right. >> so there is money on the sidelines theoretically that could go i

factor but maybe not the one you're thinking of worst rashard is back on the program to demystify the vix the ball of killing the index all that in our sights but first we had right there's a mad line let's go. the race to blunt the impact of brecht's that leads our global report today as the governor of the bank of england makes a dire warning about the consequences of a no deal brecht scenario for the united kingdom and the world on tuesday the british central banker mark carney said at an event sponsored by the financial times quote we should not be under any illusions no deal brecht's it would be a shock for this economy and send a signal globally about the prospects of responding globalisation meanwhile prime minister theresa may is pleading with parliament for two more weeks to somehow coax a better offer from e.u. negotiators a motion to that effect is expected to.

programming note for the boom busters we're going to talk about understanding the fairfax factor the vix on the next broadcast but explain volatility is volatility for average investors is it a good thing or a bad thing john. it's a great question but it's a personal question bart in other words my industry is notorious for saying you know hold on just keep your hands and your arms inside the vehicle but don't sell anything we think you need to determine as the investor because you're the driver of your portfolio how much volatility and we're talking about negative volatility can you can you withstand when we're sitting with folks and they answer a number of questions so that they can discover often for the first time that they could live with an eight percent volatility but then go back and look at the portfolio and it reveals that the portfolio could be upside down over a forty to forty three percent that's an aha moment for them to go all this is a lot more aggressive than i think i need to be maybe i need to reconstitute my portfolio so that the portfolio might perform within my expe

sales came in at vix percent. estimates were at 4.5% .rea >> its turn our attention to foxconn. they are agreeing to build a facility in southern milwaukee. the 49 people familiar with the matter say it is not the case. >> i am sure you have heard a lot of noise about this factory. missing are the actual workers. it is just south of milwaukee. they say it is very different on the promises the president trump and others had made. they have been hired as hourly workers and attempts. there were promises of jobs that never materialized. articleoint out in your that foxconn has a pattern of this. >> going back years, the red flags are glaring. everywhere from indonesia to brazil to india. even pennsylvania, they talk inut investing $30 million creating 500 jobs. in each case, they always never live up to their promises. in the case of brazil, they were ofking about almost hundreds thousands of jobs and that did not come to fruition. it is a major question why that wasn't more of a red flag went wisconsin negotiated wit

the vix is, then it has been. it's 10 year yield is 2.56%.t will be interesting to see where those yields go after today's minute if there should be more information about federal reserves thinking. members speaking on friday. no shortage of direction from the fed these days. 1.5% and more talk of cutbacks and shortages, let's say in the output of various countries in venezuela to saudi arabia. getting close to the set -- to the 57 dollar mark. global movers. forex and equity, we can see we are having a positive date in europe and currencies correlated to oil such as the canadian dollar of 4/10 of 1%. the euro stronger as well, 1/13 61. guy: let's talk about the foreign-exchange market. dollar up or down. we saw the statement a few weeks ago. are goinghink there to be too many surprises. what the market wants to know is what they are going to do about the balance. we have had comments from a couple fed officials. the market would potentially halt the reduction of the balance sheet. if we get a statement like that, the market would have antici

nasdaq is down the vix just a little elevated at this hour.is bloomberg. ♪ vonnie: it is time for our stock of the hour. chipotle trading above $600. kailey leinz has more. he is doing a good job in his first year. >> they are beating expectations on earnings, margins, you name it, especially comp sales. you can see the chart, this is the sixth quarter in a row that comp sales have grown. this quarter was noteworthy on where the growth came from, they saw an increase in customers. traffic grew 2% in this quarter, that is a good sign and it is being driven by their efforts and delivery, as well as digital, which grew 66% this quarter, now 13% of the revenue overall. guy: page funds -- hedge funds have been paying attention. what will we learn? >> people will pay attention to the new ceo. he is still the second largest holder. and you also have renaissance capital in hedge funds. so when we get the filings, we will look for any color in hedge fund positioning or changes on chipotle. vonnie: kailey leinz, thank you. and that stock is one of the b

showing in bull market vix. the dow right near 26,000.gue says, it is in built up grind, to say the least. i'm watching sterling. sterling dollar and euro sterling. my13065 on cable gets attention. i wonder what it takes to break away from that range. european stocks edging lower. if you look at some of the gains we saw earlier, they are being paired because there's a bit of a mixed bag in terms of headlines in global trade. the aussie dollar slumping on the back of the dispute with china. i'm also looking at renminbi after that big move yesterday. tom: very good. let me show you a chart. this really interesting take on the american economy. here is a december high, the november high, the ugliness of october. abovee made it back now this december peak. moveis a 31% round-trip down and back up. it is extraordinary. think we can say i have never seen it before, but we have elevated above where we were the first days of december. francine: i like that chart a lot. this is what i'm looking at. you can see aussie dollar following -- falling mo

beginning of october we were under 11 i think in the vix. right?ms the move we have had but the question is, do we have much more fuel in the tank immediate basis can credit get much better? all the rest of those things we don't know. >> stephanie, butch fete 26 wants to buy in and says the market goes higher are we overvalued? >> well, we are up 19% from the lows right? >> yep. >> that's why i think we lagged today and why i think china did so quite well because they lagged last year i think you have a push/pull of u.s. and em quite frankly. those are the two markets i think people look to invest in i think the fundamentals are quite good i do think that we are slowly checking off the boxes of uncertainty. that is, government shutdown, trade, fed, all those things are the reasons why we actually saw a contraction last year in the multiples from 18.4 times to 14 in december. we have come a long way. we have gone from 14 times to 15.5 times forward on the s&p. and so can we go higher? sure we can. should we pause? probably and maybe it's time for em

more advancing than declining stocks the vix collapsed.olks, we are approaching the 200-day moving average that number is 2741. every time we have gotten around there in the last few months including going down below it in october we have had a lot of market volatility so we'll see if we get that it does matter finally on the earnings, they have been coming down but they're still positive we had 5% earnings growth for van 1st, first quarter now down to 0.5% and the debate, can this stay in positive territory as we getthrough earnings season? >> thank you very much for that. >>> let's dive into this deeper. joining us is lindsey bell and rick santely very good afternoon to you all lindsay, how are you numbers looking and doing better or worse than expectations? >> i think the earnings season is okay. the numbers better than expected but the numbers slashed significantly coming into the earnings period. so when they were cut by 600 bases points, up by 150 points, i think that things are better than feared so that is good news even though out

vix?e to a 14 no. thrilled to bring in chris marangi to talk a lot equity markets. we always need a washington update. i don't want to go to the shutdown. this thing with mueller last thet, eurasian groups said sleeper for february and march is a mueller investigation. thatwas sort of a surprise mr. manafort was found lying, right? >> i don't think it was a tremendous surprise. it was a question of whether or not the judge would accept that materiality. is het means for manafort is going to get more jail time. tom: let's go with a question i got in the living room. do you assume day-to-day, our ishington team, that this setting mr. manafort up for a presidential pardon? >> i think at this point a presidential pardon is off the table. i think if donald trump were to use it in the context of the mueller probe he would face real resistance certainly from democrats but from his own party. we are on that you've of this deadline to avoid the second partial government shutdown. will the president sign? >> eve

we're at 15 on the vix one thing we don't have, guys, is breakouts new highs.eption and jimmy is right on it as always, it is boeing that's the only real big, big breakout we had. a little bit of lilly maybe doing a little bit better as well but that's the big breakout, new high for boeing. we're just at the highs for the day here david, back to you. >> i can see that, thank you, bob. s&p up about .3% disney reporting after the bell as bob well knows. some questions on this continued sale process for the regional sports networks i've been focused on $71 billion deal for fox, almost 2 billion of the ebitda received in that deal from the regional sports networks which agreed to sell per a consent decree with the department of justice to get the deal approved. the deal itself expected to close within weeks, i think we can say at this point. will they get it done before the end of the month unclear. but soon but this process as we have been pointing out has been a difficult one. and certainly one in which disney is not expected to receive anywhere near the proceeds

is thestory in the vix price.oving average, which is a bearish technical condition, but also, the vix is under the moving average of 16.5, so traders are saying the fix is underpriced. but the issue is ranges continue to contract. not a lot of volatility in this market. last week, we saw one of the four inside days. an inside day is when the high low range is inside the prior a range. abigail: that usually means volatility? it can but it is a red flag for traders looking to buy options. options cost money and the case of the market is not moving, the kerry can cost you. abigail: let's bring the dollar into the conversation because it is on an eight-day rally. there are some say it has to be with the fed. other central banks might rise. maybe it is the haven bid. could that not pressure the rally? >> especially since a strong dollar weakens the s&p 500 relative to the other u.s. indices because it is more large-cap weighted. that is one of the reasons traders are looking at the s&p 500 more bearishly relative to th

machine shop, a moto guild of sorts, which is a meeting of people that ride motorcycles, so they learn vix and it's helped a lot of people get up on motorcycles. this is what we're doing as well as a place for indigo films to keep their set props, which they're a subsidiary of discovery channel. i don't know if you've ever heard of indigo films but they've been on treasure island a long time. not as long as world war ii but excite some time now. so my dad said that coming here and trying to preserve this building is like the hail mary pass but i think with the team that we have and the players that we have, that it's possible, because this has been a very historic building. and it's a beautiful one. >> thank you. >> seeing no further public comment, we can move on to department matters, item one, director's announcements. >> good afternoon, commissioners. nothing to report under director's announcements other than please visit the new website. >> i did. >> if you have not noticed, it's been revamped including a new preservation section, still working out some of the bugs but please let us

. >> interesting if you look at where the vix is it is so low that typically that may be something thisd about. i checked in with my expert, mark sebastian, great work for mad money, and it is is clear this is is an harbinger for bullishness when gets down that low. you may need that momentum to break out. semis being a leadership group, that's terrific. they were one of the worst groups in december but i don't want to sound an all clear, but i got to tell you, there are a lot of people who did not like this rally. not one bit. and i was watching someone this morning on brian sullivan's show, talking about how she didn't like the market because money is coming out while it goes up. my answer to that is what happens when the money comes back because it is going up >> opening bell, at the cnbc real time exchange, big board today, omd worldwide, celebrating being named global media agency of the year at the nasdaq, columbia business school's annual india business conference you're right about that, jim you got that fed pivot, reduced trade risk, you got earnings that are -- have come in be

when i talk about protection, you can buy the vix, you can buy puts in the spy and just stay long in your equities or long in your etfs and buy very, very cheap insurance. that's the path that i would take as opposed to just doing an about-face and saying listen, we're about to sell off. timing, you know, no one has timing appropriately. that's the way in my book i would play it. lauren: quick followup for you. record close for the dow, 26,828. do we get there? >> i don't know if we get there any time soon. but i think we're on a slow grind towards there. if the fed continues to come out and keep this dovish path, yeah, i think it's within reach. lauren: phil flynn, you know, the cfo of walmart today said gas prices came down in the quarter. that was pretty good. that was good for our consumer. but i'm watching crude prices right now. i know it's tied to the venezuela story but they are at a three-month high. >> they are. and they could go even higher. if you're looking for cheap gasoline prices this summer, forget about it, okay? the longer venezuelan oil is off the market, the bigg

the vix, 16.59. that is an awfully good number. ten-year.nd i were glued to this in davos. screamsgerman ten-year disinflation. sell the bitcoin this weekend. francine: i'm looking at dollars studying. steadying. i'm looking at treasuries retaining most of their gains since the pivot wednesday from the fed on a more neutral stance on monetary tightening. this is the story of the week. you see a huge repricing of risk assets. tom: of love the headline there on inflation. not only slower real growth, but slower inflation. have about the 30 year bond? here is rollover from frequent -- 3.4% in october. deviations, which is a huge move. deflation up as the yield drive slow. and looking at manufacturing in china as they are going to buy more u.s. goods, but also sees progress in trade talks. this is one of hillary clark's favorite charts. it is basically looking at the china manufacturing pmi in blue and satellite index in white, which monitors 6000 industrial facilities all across china. you can see there is a little bit of discrepancy depending

just look at the vix tyler, back to you >> mr. thank you very much we continue to talk to jim here because fascinating stuff always >>> one economic indicator you might not be familiar with frank holland is live in toledo, ohio he found the indicator there he's got his eye on big rigs frank? >> 70% of the things we buy in the stores are delivered in trucks like these. at cinupary numbers. th'somg on "power lunch. lunch. see you thenuction. ♪ ♪ let's go from being on-call... ♪ ♪ to bne. american express can help move your business forward with loans, vendor payments and buying power. chat with one of our 4000 specialists and let's make it happen. the powerful backing of american express. don't do business without it. the powerful backing of american express. at&t provides edge-to-edge intelligence, covering virtually every part of your finance business. and so if someone tries to breach your firewall in london & you start to panic... don't. because your cto says we've got allies on the outside... ...& security algorithms on the ins

i would note the vix is a bull market. what do you have?lk about what has been going on around the world. with i strongly day rally in china. morning sessions, nothing happening. the afternoon, things going on. the margin trade is now back on in china. authorities are allowing chinese equities to get into gear. european stocks going nowhere in a hurry. report.ising bloomberg tom: tough call on the bloomberg today. wanted a reduction. this goes into the inflation news. is the idea of a lower inflation rate. let's go to andrew sheets of morgan stanley who is in charge of your december, january and february. on how torsation reset in the equity market as well. let's do the inflation now. later in the hour as well. is this disinflation here to stay? andrew: i'm not sure that it is. a think the first thing that is important here is some level setting. the inflation rates have moderated and core numbers. they have come down on the headline basis, but a lot of that headline decline is due to energy crisis. if you look across major economies, it's

vix below 140 today. there's very little panic.'s very little heavy buying volume of two weeks. >> there goes the bell we are up 0.6% on the s&p. more than that for the dow and the nasdaq, the russell up a healthy 0.9% positive returns for the day and the week, as well. that does it for the first half of "closing bell." morgan, back to you. ♪ >>> welcome to the "closing bell." i'm morgan brennan wi fred frost will rejoin me in a moment michael santoli has the day off. here's how we finish the day on wall street. as stocks settle, the dow finishing up about 180 points. closer to the highs of the day, 202 earlier. that is a gain of .7%. it is also higher for the week and just a factoid, first time since 1964 that the dow has risen in each of the first eight weeks to start a calendar year the s&p finishing up higher. 2792 with the nasdaq up .9%. 7527 the russell 2000 also finishing the day up .9% here are the stories on the radar for investors. we have got kayla covering the big trade meeting between president trump and china's vice p

finally, the vix and this is important.u see on this chart in november, the lowest levels in two months kelly, back to you. >> all right, rick >>> new england patriots, you're not going to want to hear this, well, some people might, but there for the third year in a row and ninth time in 18 years are people sick of seeing them or super bowl ratings rock solid so much that brady and belichick can't hurt them? lombardy trophy, the stock draft ndll crown the champion on moay we'll let you know how things stand coming up. what do you look for when you trade? i want free access to research. yep, td ameritrade's got that. free access to every platform. yeah, that too. i don't want any trade minimums. yeah, i totally agree, they don't have any of those. i want to know what i'm paying upfront. yes, absolutely. do you just say yes to everything? hm. well i say no to kale. mm. yeah, they say if you blanch it it's better, but that seems like a lot of work. no hidden fees. no platform fees. no trade minimums. and yes, it's all at one l

the lowball environment continues to the vix just checking.like dish like we used to the very declining volatility in low volatility. we are seeing buyers. >> an interesting tussle at the top. >> it is very 2017 like. very weird. >> speaking of levitating, consumer durables and apparel leading the way up by that are 1.2% i should say fear big gainers here with media entertainment for disney reports earnings. >> keeping an eye on disney and folks streaming. on the downside, we talk about this all day. thanks on the lower side. the financials. >> it is a big part of the story. environment is just not there for people to bet on financials especially when tech continues to lead the way. when he lifted indexes, we're just coming off the session highs. we're still holding onto advances. a long way from where we started a couple of hours ago. >> a little of the highs that again, a nice quiet day of gains. >> we are moments away from the close. eight minutes to be exact. let's look at today's action. lisa. they were considering an acquisition and clos

better than others the downward pull of global rates is having an effect in the u.s not just there the vixersed all the odds look at these etf rebounds trading at a four month high if you look at the muni etf, it's at a one year high. if you look at the dollar index which has been the star all week, once again it's still up at lofty levels but we lost the 97 handle again. every time the dollar gets above 97 it has a short life traders are playing the range and selling it every time it gets up there and backing away once again tyler, back to you >> coming up, we will go live to charlotte, north carolina the site of the nba all-star game and nba commissioner will join us and the nfl tried to get him to switch sports. stay with us the future of technology investing lies beyond the tech sector. it's about technology transforming every sector. ♪ at pgim, our bottom-up approach uses a technology lens to identify long-term winners. from energy... to real estate... to retail. finding such opportunities for alpha is the true value of active investing. and around the world, you have a partner in tha

to some, may sound boring but the equity markets love it vix at 13 and everyone worried about future earning recession, the markets has momentum look at the s&p overlaid on 10 since the nervousness in october. it's diverged. it lights a flat interest rate market and another area may be the big news isn't having the desired effect that's one week of the pound versus the dollar. all the nervousness with brexit, it held gains on tuesday with respect to the dollar. four sessions over 130 highest close for the pound since the first day of february. tyler, back to you >> thank you, sir. appreciate it very much. that was high tax state of illinois, not high deck. >>> crucial trade talks with president trump and china's trade chief just minutes away down right there at the white house. we're awaiting it. we'll bring it to you coming up and chinese stocks rallying today. trade optimism the reason. pushing the shanghai composite to the best week since 2016. could a trade deal fuel these stocks even higher nc rurexplore that when "pow er luh"etns okay, paint a picture for me. uh, well, this wil

not playing out, but that's what i look at so if i were enjoying this run from december 24th with the vixe, i would say to myself it's not a bad time to take some money off the table. my opinion >> all right thanks for that, guy nbc universal and comcast ventures are invested in acorns. for even more financial education, head to the website cnbc.com/investinyou. >>> coming up, freeport macmoran is soaring today we'll tell you if it has more room to run. we'll live from the nasdaq in times square much more "fast money" after this ♪ you should be mad they gave this guy a promotion. you should be mad at forced camaraderie. and you should be mad at tech that makes things worse. you're not mad, because you have e*trade, who's tech makes life easier by automatically adding technical patterns on charts and helping you understand what they mean. don't get mad. get e*trade's simplified technical analysis. ♪ ♪ move to the enterprise-grade cloud that's built to handle all your apps. ♪ ♪ the ibm cloud. the cloud for smarter business. the ibm cloud. all of you. how you live, what you love. that's what

vix?'t heard many talk about it remember, wasn't that long ago that it was trading 36 yes, 36. i can tell you the exact date. christmas eve. and where is it now? less than half of that today it's hovering. friday it closed at 13 you can think about the fundamentals, and that is always important but low volatility means they're packing those portfolios tighter with equities once again and finally, as i look up and we get prepared for consumer confidence, those feel-good indices like many data points have lost some ground. it's going to be fascinating to see if they play catch up the way the market did from those high volatility days around christmas. carl, david, jim, back to you. >> we'll get conference board in just about seven minutes rick, thank you. rick mentions high yield u.s. junk bonds on pace for their best two months in almost 20 years >> that's the -- we thought we were going to be in a recession caused by powell now we know we're not because he's changed his tone. >> yeah, it's

alix: the vix at 15. >> it is quiet. you have the summit between kim jong-un and president trump. yesterday, we had three testimonies going on at the same time and markets don't seem to care. they are consolidating after that amazing rally at the beginning of the year. we are seeing a bit of a risk off trade this morning. gold getting a bid, but it's all small moves. alix: even sterling wasn't rallying as much as they wanted it to. weakness in china -- manufacturing pmi, the white line rolling over. the new export orders, the yellow line taking a leg lower here as well. regardless of trade, china slowing is a problem? or stimulus from china will pop up the market? sarah: somewhere in between. unless we get an extended truce as it relates to the u.s.-china trade war, this will be the trend we continue to see. there has been a lot of hope lately on the investor side that -- president xi saying they will continue a deleveraging campaign. will it be enough if trade is still an issue to turn things around? marty: all of the signs are that china does really want to get this behind them