dick morris was one a democrat but now he's become a republican.nd so you want to talk about stephanopoulos just a moment? >> yes. there are a couple flaws in what he said. first, just statistics saying obama is higher than clinton or reagan was. reagan had a democratic congress. it was not an issue in the electrics there is not united obama and congress negative that you have now. and clinton had very high negatives and lost control of both houses of congress. obama's negatives are lower than either reagan's or clintons because he has a golf handicap of 12% of the elecotrate are african american and all of whom, 0 of the 12 have a favorable view of him. what i thought was interesting is an antiseptic yield economy is doing it. and if the economy goes up, obama is going to go down. it's down because economy is down? not the case. the reason obama is in serious trouble now and reason democrats are going to get swept is because of what they did. the spending. the borrowing. the obama care. >> bill: let me submit this. it's not -- . >> wait. >> bill:

dick morris was one a democrat but now he's become a republican.and so you want to talk about stephanopoulos just a moment? >> yes. there are a couple flaws in what he said. first, just statistics saying obama is higher than clinton or reagan was. reagan had a democratic congress. it was not an issue in the electrics there is not united obama and congress negative that you have now. and clinton had very high negatives and lost control of both houses of congress. obama's negatives are lower than either reagan's or clintons because he has a golf handicap of 12% of the elecotrate are african american and all of whom, 0 of the 12 have a favorable view of him. what i thought was interesting is an antiseptic yield economy is doing it. and if the economy goes up, obama is going to go down. it's down because economy is down? not the case. the reason obama is in serious trouble now and reason democrats are going to get swept is because of what they did. the spending. the borrowing. the obama care. >> bill: let me submit this. it's not -- . >> wait. >> bill:

but let's understand that i was quote what dick morris said. i was in no way, shape, or form talking about it. i'm not going to be cheering that committee or anything else. the fact is, i'm on the committee of waste, fraud and oversight and reform. it's really about going after far down below the president, below his key cabinet officers and get into the parts of government that waste your dollars. that's what my committee has to do. that's our mandate. that's what i intend to do if i'm given the opportunity. >> okay. here's something else. this was posted this year by your staff. let's listen to it on health care. >> the concern is that if you can bribe and i mean bribe members of the house and the senate to get their votes, then democracy as we know it simply won't work. >> what we're talking about health care and you're using the term bribe there. you use terms like bribe, like impeachable, the subpoena power. the question is, is this going to be another 80th congress. like we had right after world war ii, where they used to say, they open e

joining us live dick morris.uess in every family there would be different opinions, especially on politics. that one sort of hurts. >> generally, the time for children to rebel against their fathers is before they run for governor while he's running for senator. rory is absolutely right. this federal health care law requires that every state cover 133% of the poverty level unmedicaid. that's about 32 or 33,000 of income. nevada currently covers only half that. so nevada would taste a huge tax inreese -- would face a huge tax increase when that takes effect in 2014. rory reid is right. but that helping harry. >> greta: nevada the worst unemployment, number one in unemployment right now too. not like nevada has any cash under the mattress. >> right nowed today, the republican candidate is leading -- in all 10 seats that they need to take control. and the narrowest of those is a three point lead in nevada by angle. it guess up to 45 point lead in north dakota. -- it goes up to a 45 point lead in north dakota. the ne

dick morris and i will analyze. >> why did they arrest you guys? [speaking spanish] >> under the radar the obama administration is cracking down hard on criminal illegal aliens. deporting them in record numbers. homeland security chief janet napolitano will be here. i will ask her about the nikki diaz meg whitman case. did you know that dennis miller is helping sharron angle in a race against senator harry reid? why is miller doing that? >> ya da ya da ya da. >> bill: caution, you are about to enter not spin zone. the factor begins right now. >> bill: hi, i'm bill o'reilly. thanks for watching us tonight. white working measures and president -- americans and president obama. a new associated press poll says that white working americans are now president obama's biggest nightmare. back in 2008, white voters without college degrees favored republican congressional candidates by 11 percentage points. but now according to the a.p. that figure has doubled. 58% of white working americans say they will vote republican in november. just 36% say they will v

they are saying you gotta tell dick morris to tone it down a hair. he's too optimistic. we are raising expectations so high nobody can meet those expectations. >> no we're not. i've been to 38 house districts. and i'm on the ground looking at the polls, meeting with the candidates. i gotta tell you, i wrote a column on dickmorris.com called the danger of underconfidence, not overconfidence. my case is, there are races all over this country of democrats who are supposedly invincible and unbeatable. when you poll those districts you find they are ahead 45-41 they can be defeated. i found one in florida, mike youst running against brown, a 22 year democratic liberal. he could defeat her. tomorrow go to dickmorris.com every morning i have a blog about the campaign. tomorrow, i'm launching a new pact which is going to concentrate on the 60th, 70th, 80th, 90th and 100th seat. there are districts out there like barney frank's and steny hoyer's and denying -- and dingle in the house where you can defeat him if you advertise and do an independent expenditure. we are hopeful to ra

dick morris thought me in the early 90s the punch is not nearly as effective as the counter punch. want to draw first blood. you want your opponent to come after you, draw your blood then you have a free shot to go after him. counter punching is far more effective than punching. >> sean: a harry reid web ad talking about sharron angle's crazy juice. >> announcer: you've heard about sharron angle's extreme juice in washington. >> i got juice. >> i have juice with deminute. >> announcer: now it can be yourses! introducing sharron angle's crazy juice! made with real demint. it will rev you up, you know it is made from socialism. so, so, so, so extreme! coming soon in new lemonade. >> i feel totally nuts. >> sean: i would say humor would normally work. following your advice earlier, how about this as the perfect response. talk about crazy juice, harry reid, the war is lost, the surge has failed. his attack against tea party people. that would be a perfect counter. >> always turn their ad back on to them. if you are going to be accused of being crazy. list the things that your opponent

joining us dick morris.ourse i should say we probably don't know if we polled all republicans or not but we assume it was across the spectrum. nonetheless, let's talk about the races. what do you see as the three most important races going into the midterms? >> first, about that poll. what i found was fascinating only 41% of the democrats sampled say they would definitely vote for obama for reelection. 74% said they probably would or definitely would. a quarter of all democrats said they would vote for somebody else. which is terrible performance for him. back to your the three most important races are nevada, washington and new york. >> greta: why, let's start with nevada? >> okay. the republicans now have leads in eight states. north dakota, arkansas, indiana, colorado, pennsylvania, illinois, west virginia and wisconsin. leads in those states. theé that is tied at 44-44. it has been died -- been tied since august 1st. my feeling is harry reid is dead in the water that he's been doing a huge amount of adv

joining us dick morris.ay we probably don't know if we polled all republicans or not but we assume it was across the spectrum. nonetheless, let's talk about the races. what do you see as the three most important races going into the midterms? >> first, about that poll. what i found was fascinating only 41% of the democrats sampled say they would definitely vote for obama for reelection. 74% said they probably would or definitely would. a quarter of all democrats said they would vote for somebody else. which is terrible performance for him. back to your the three most important races are nevada, washington and new york. >> greta: why, let's start with nevada? >> okay. the republicans now have leads in eight states. north dakota, arkansas, indiana, colorado, pennsylvania, illinois, west virginia and wisconsin. leads in those states. theé that is tied at 44-44. it has been died -- been tied since august 1st. my feeling is harry reid is dead in the water that he's been doing a huge amount of advertising. hasn't

. >> reporter: in the main hall political analysts dick morris predicted broad conservative victories in november and the defeat of senate majority leader harry reid. virginia governor bob mcdonnell stopped by to tell the tea party gathering he shares their views on limited government and fiscal responsibility. >> we have an unsustainable and immoral level of debt, $13 trillion in this nation, $42,000 for every person represented here. we cannot continue down that road in spending and still be the great nation we are today in the united states of america. >> reporter: saturday's session will include speeches by libertarian congressman ron paul and former virginia senator george allen. there will also be a first ever presidential straw poll at a tea party gathering. from richmond john henrehan, fox 5 news. >>> jon stewart has revealed the location of his rally to restore sanity. the event will take place at the east end of the national mall between third and seventh streets. stewart's rally along with stephen colbert's march to keep fear alive are set for october 30th. >>> president ob

he called dick morris. who would have expected that?pick up the bat phone. so let's ask this question. who is -- i won't say who is barack obama's dick morris, but it does beg a question. does he have a republican, does he have a conservative that he knows that he can say, okay, friend, i'm in trouble, and i need you to come here and help me course correct. >> i come back to the same person, ken guber stein who is ronald reagan's last chief of staff who voted for obama. he announced his support for barack obama before the election. >> does barack obama like -- >> they know people in common he has october kafshlly been consulted by the white house. >> guys, thanks very much. willie, what's up next? >> sarah palin was on the campaign trail over the weekend, speaking of the former alaska governor. she rolled out a new zinger about president obama that i think you'll enjoy and you'll probably hear it a lot over the next week or so. sarah palin on the trail when "morning joe" comes right back. ♪ where'd you learn to do that so well. ♪ ♪ wher

. >> sean: you have dick morris, i think he's getting people excited.e's right in terms of strategy you should always go for as many seats as may be open as possible. i think it is difficult to fun 100 races as he's suggesting, not impossible. karl rove is more cautiously optimistic. there is only one poll that matters, election day. can we count on these polls to mean as much as some think? >> every indicia we have had suggest that republican inclined voters are highly enthusiastic. democrat voters, not the case. you are right to say polling can't entirely simulate turn out. we have actual election results this is the first off year election cycle in which more people votedded in republican primaries than in democratic primaries since 1930 the finding put out for the center of the study of the american electorate. you have a pivotal states like michigan and missouri which do not have party registration voters are free to choose either primary candidate. and where you had equivalent races on both sides. you had nearly twice as many people voting in the

. >> and dick morris making bold predictions about the midterms again? republicans have momentum to take control of congress. that's not all he's going to tell us this morning. stick around. how are those flat rate boxes working out? fabulous! they ga me this great idea. yea? we mail documents all over the country, so, what if there were riority mail flat rate... envelopes? yes! you could ship to any state... or a low flat rate? ! a really low flat re. like $4.90? yes! and it uld look like a flat rate box... only flatter? like th? yo..me...geni. genius. priority ml flat rate envelopes. just $4.90. only from the postal service. a simpler way to ship. the universe is changing captain too bad these cheap props aren't but la quinta is! la quinta inns and suites? yeah, buddy changing? lets take a gander captain they are changing! they have thousands of new rooms! and lots of neato new lobbies! they're even better than before book rooms at lq.com hey, who's captain here? (laughing) wake up on the bright side at la quinta inns and suites la quinta! you really s

. >> sean: i was giving dick morris a hard time last night. you overly optimistic. he is suggesting that the republicans aim higher. that they should be shooting for 100 saots, because in this volatile -- seats, because in this tile political environment, anything can happen. you have been more cautious in your predictions. are you still cautious? >> i'm cautious, but i'm optimistic. i think the republicans are likely to take over the house. my range is 39-45. i could see it going to 55, tilting higher in the range the 39-45 range. it is gonna be a very difficult contest all the way to the end. the democrats are prepared. they are not going to be caught napping. they realize they don't have issues to run on. not a single democrat in a vulnerable seat is running an ad extolling the stimulus bill. the only democrats talking about the stimulus bill are the democrats who voted against it. there's a democrat who voted for the cap and trade bill is extolling its virtues. only two, steve israel, out there in new york and pomeroy in north dakota, only two are extolling the

. >> sean: you have dick morris, i think he's getting people excited.ld always go for as many seats as may be open as possible. i think it is difficult to fun 100 races as he's suggesting, not impossible. karl rove is more cautiously optimistic. there is only one poll that matters, election day. can we count on these polls to mean as much as some think? >> every indicia we have had suggest that republican inclined voters are highly enthusiastic. democrat voters, not the case. you are right to say polling can't entirely simulate turn out. we have actual election results this is the first off year election cycle in which more people votedded in republican primaries than in democratic primaries since 1930 the finding put out for the center of the study of the american electorate. you have a pivotal states like michigan and missouri which do not have party registration voters are free to choose either primary candidate. and where you had equivalent races on both sides. you had nearly twice as many people voting in the republican primary in michigan and miss

then, dick morris trying hard to get republicans elected this cycle but why?oming right back. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ [ male announcer ] every day thousands of people are switching from tylenol® to advil. to learn more and get your special offer, go to takeadvil.com. take action. take advil®. we get double mi on every purchase. echo! so we earned a trip thgrand canyon twice as fast. uhoh. we get double miles evy time we use our card. i'ltake these. no matter what we're buying. plus the damas. and since double miles add up quick, we can bring the whole gang. it's hard to beat double miles. no, we ride them. [ male announcer ] get the vente card from capital one and earn double miles on eve purchase, every day. go toapitalone.com. what's in your wallet? oh, that's the spot! >> impact segment tonight. new reuters poll, more bad news for president obama. 43% of americans now approve of the president's job performance. 53% disapprove. that's the lowest approval number the reuters poll has ever reported. joining us to react, one of the stars of abc's "good morning america," george

dick morris is back. can you prove me wrong bob? what kind of answer is that. you make an allegation against somebody -- >> they have no message. you are talking about a legislative campaign after the most profoundly changing legislative package that has ever been passed by a congress since 1934 and 35 or 64 and 65. whether you like it or not it was huge and not a single candidate is defending that. they are running on nonsense like this it is absolutely incredible. >> sean: what did you think -- the president says we are creating jobs. >> i may have told new story. right before the election '94 clinton called me anded is where he thought -- where i thought he should campaign? i said don't, you will drive down your ratings. i said you will hurt everybody you are campaigning for. then he went out and hurt them all that is image you just showed of barack obama in short sleeves is not presidential. you came on and you looked presidential. he looked like some kind of street -- >> sean: i'm putting together a group and i'll let you run a poll -- >> thing that i'm fi

. >> sean: you are more cautiously optimistic than say dick morris suggesting republicans ought to thinkutting 100 seats in play. 100% confident republicans take back the senate. you have been more reserved. but your numbers keep going up every week. where are you this week? >> i'm 39-47. and i'm still thinking we could get into the mid 50s if it breaks right. i think it is likely today that the base for the republicans will be enough votes to take over the house of representatives. i am cautious. i do think there are over 100 seats potentially in play if you take a look at what -- the seas that charlie cook said were in play that stu rothberg, two political prognosticators who map these and stud by the national journal and study commissioned by national radio, if you add up all the democrat seas they consider to be at risk there are 102. i think we have many in play this year. >> sean: in the senate? >> i used to be -- i'm back to eight to nine. i can see my way to saying republicans could take control with 10. i think that is a long shot. but i think a gain of eight or nine. i'm leanin

talking points hates to say it but dick morris may be correct. the republicans may well win back the senate. but it won't be easy. as the national media is now openly rooting for the democrats. by the way be careful when you see polling. be sure the sample is not skewed. far more democrats than republicans are asked questions in that "the washington post" survey. you have got to be careful. the election is most important in history. governing from the left and making no attempt to moderate. our system has a check against ideological governance and four weeks from today that check, the election, will tell the tale. that's the memo. now for the top story tonight analysis from both republicans and democrats on the upcoming election. first, joining us from washington newt gingrich who has a brand new dvd for sale called america at risk, the war with no name. his wife calista is the co-host on that. am i making any mistakes here, mr. speaker? are you seeing it the same way i am. >> no. i think you are right. i might add in dissatisfaction with the dem

chief of staff pete rouse is someone who can be counted on to tug in to the center say the way dick morrisid with bill clinton after the election in '08. >> chris: let me pick up on that. if he decided to move to the center and follow the clinton model and a lot of us agree that pete rouse might not be the guy. who would be a good chief of staff. should he go outside and what are the chances you think that he will follow the clinton model if he takes a whipping, a drubbing as george w. bush called it in 2006 in the elections in november? >> look, i think that i can tell you on very good authority that at the white house they totally reject the idea that he would adopt the clinton model and move to the center. now, that being said, everything is going to change in november. even if democrats retain control the they there will bea smaller number of democrats and more liberal proportionally. a larger number of republicans and they will be more conservative relatively. fewer people in the middle for him to make whatever deals he might want to make. that having been said he has to acknowledge i

chief of staff, pete rouse, someone that can be counted on to tug him to the insert of way, say as dick morris did with bill clinton after the election of '08. >> chris: mara, if he decided to move to the center, and follow the clinton model, and i think a lot of us agree, pete rouse might not be the guy, who would be a good chief of staff? should he go outside and what do you think the chances are he'll follow the clinton model if he takes, you know, a whippin', a drubbing, as george w. bush called it in 2006, in the elections of november. >> i think -- i can tell you on good authority at the whose they totally reject the idea that he would adopt the clinton model and move to the center. now, that being said, everything is going to change in november. even if democrats are taking control they will be a smaller number of democrats and there will be -- they'll be more liberal proportionately and there will be a larger number of republicans and they'll be more conservative, relatively and there will be fewer people in the middle to make the deals he might want to and having said that he'll have

chief of staff pete rouse can be counted on you to get you to the center of the way, say the way dick morris with bill clinton in the election of '98. >> chris: if he followed the clinton model and a lot of us agree pete rouse might not be a good choice for the chief of staff and should he go outside? what are the chances you think he will follow the clinton model if he takes, you know, whipping, a drubbing as george w. bush called it in 2006 in the elections in november? >> look, i think that i can tell you on good authority at the white house they totally reject the idea he would adopt the clinton model and move to the center. now, that being said, everything is going to change in november. even if democrats retain control, there will be a smaller number of democrats and there will be more liberally proportionally. there will be a larger number of conservatives and there will be fewer people in if midto make whatever deals he wants to make. but that said, he has to acknowledge in some way, whether the choice of a new chief of staff or something he says that he got the message of this elect

dick morris writing his op-ed piece in "the hill." no longer do evangelical or social issues dominate the ground troops, but economic and fiscal issues prevail. the tea party made the republican party save for libertarians. in case you want to read more, thehill.com. this is from "the new york times." secretive republican donors are planning ahead. heading to the palm springs area for a long weekend in january to plan for the next one. this, again, is from "the new york times" this morning. this is from "the washington post." this is david milbanks. dennis from baton rouge. caller: i am and ideologies man. two quick points. in an ideal world, the way the political system would work is each individual would get out there and make it known who they actually are, and the people would vote for the individual and when they go to washington they will vote for what ever -- whatever that was would either be approved by the american people or disapproved. host: thank you for calling in. a little bit of a bad connection. sorry about that. grace

people started to say democrats will lose 50 seats, 60 seats, dick more miss h dick morris has it uppublican year. they have not managed their expectations. boehner has been worried about it all year long and trying to manage expectations and trying to get other republicans to do it. maybe too late to put the genie back in the bottle. >> there wastitening last week a -- tightening in the poll and see it in the pathologist po"wa poll. republicans still have a 20 point advantage and no question enthusiasm gap has closed. the mood is still horrible for democrats. i think the way strategists frame it to me, the difference between a tsunami or hurricane, hurricane cat 4 or cat 5 for democrats. >> on top of that, you look at the fact republicans, as nora picked up, are 20 points ahead of independents, a group that went for barack obama just two years ago. add to the fact every off-year election, voters are older and wider. it all works against the democrats, just because that's the trend. that's a historic trend. >> obama won and minorities came out very strong, african-americans 13%, youn

dick morris said democrats could lose 80 seats, twice the number republicans would need to get the majority. no one is saying it's going to be a good night for democrats. what democrats are telling us is that a lot of their tough races have stabilized, are tightening. especially look at the senate races. illinois, california, washington, those were all looking bad for democrats. they're now all in the hunt on those. they say if you look at their most important metrics which are internal polls, national polls on the generic, fund-raising, grassroots efforts, all that sort of thing, all those are looking better for democrats. >> about three weeks ago we sensed a return to the republican party, the polls showed it about a week later, huge gains by republicans. are we all sensing a bit of a turn back, maybe an early buyers' remorse, people thinking, well, maybe we're not so sure we're ready to let the republicans run washington? >> a billing part of it is is that democrats are tuning in. it was republicans, people mad at the system employee ating that huge en thus a.m. as gap we saw all through