i think the fed should take david kelly's advice and try not to -- just be on a programmatic. >> i hear you saying the fed should declare victory and go home, that they shouldn't hike any more because they don't need to >> i don't think they do that was my point of view when we spoke last time i think -- obviously what's really changed a lot is psychology the stock market, particularly the nasdaq, is up a ton. one thing that's interesting, it feels like it's on a nonstop tear the asset class that has the highest return since the last fed meeting, amazingly, is commodities thanks to a lot of the surge in agriculture it's up 8% the nasdaq is only up 4% it feels like it's up a lot more, doesn't it i think because of the tear year to date for the nasdaq, i think there's an opportunity now for investors to be more value or oriented the nasdaq is up 38 or something like this. >> the dow is catching up. the dow is going for its 13th straight day of gains. >> every day every day. still, i still think there's catch-up there i think the manufacturing prices are looking encouraging. also on the in

felt laura was that type of person. >> it's around the beginning of the new year when david reveals to his wife, kellyhe's been having an affair. and by may 2012, their marriage is over. how acrimonious was the divorce between you and david? >> mm. it was not easy. um, i was still very much in love with him. i was very angry. >> how was taylor affected by the divorce? >> he was heartbroken. >> what did he say? >> he just started crying. he just sat in my lap. and we tried to reassure him that, you know, we both love you very much. you know, that's never going to change. >> at the time laura begins dating david syring, her son cameron is very much in the picture. and at a certain point, laura's relationship with cameron becomes strained. >> she says that you're going to live with your father, philip day, who really didn't live very far away. but it left her with david alone in the house. >> barely a few months after their divorces are finalized, david and laura visit the wedding capital of the world, las vegas. got married in vegas. what was that like? >> oh, it was fun. it was like, let's just go to v

. >>> we're back with david kelly, and we're joined by neal katyal. welcome to both of you. david, i'd like to begin with you where i left off in going over some of what we saw in the process today and in the superseding indictment, which is being bad at the conspiracy, not actually even getting the footage deleted, that doesn't help any of these defendants, right? >> it doesn't help them at all. trump came out with a statement saying it's complete fiction because they got the tape. misses the point from a legal perspective that it doesn't matter if the means or the objective of the conspiracy wasn't achieved. what matters is that they undertook a plot to do something that was contrary to the law. and so it's kind of befuddling as to why he cops out with these statements. i mean, from a legal perspective, they're insane and i think a defense lawyer's nightmare that his client is out there making such statements but you got to think that his only db the method to his madness in making statements like that is to plant a seed to just need one juror to think it's all hogwash and

down, so why not take advantage of stocks that are going to do well in a low-rate environment >> david kellyith a message to the market do not kill the bond cicadas, not this year. david, appreciate it >> any time. >>> when we come back, meta out of the gate with sign-ups for threads. twitter responding by threatening some legal action. we'll get you all the details. take a look at the premarket here as we wrap up the week. still plenty of stocks to get to we'll talk about what's coming down the pike in the week ahead. more "squawk on the street" when we return. ♪ the biggest ideas inspire new ones. 30 years ago, state street created an etf that inspired the world to invest differently. it still does. what can you do with spy? ♪ ♪ we planned well for retirement, but i wish we had more cash. you think those two have any idea? that they can sell their life insurance policy for cash? so they're basically sitting on a goldmine? i don't think they have a clue. that's crazy! well, not everyone knows coventry's helped thousands of people sell their policies for cash. even term policies. i can't bel

matty parker is a defense lawyer in the case who's based on one of my closest friends, david kelly, who followed me as the us attorney in new york. and i tried to capture dave's loving, curmudgeonly ness and some of his mannerisms. he's trying to do the right thing. he's a very talented lawyer in a difficult situation and i have a running inner monologue that tries to capture my friend dave. and so, yes, i began loving matty parker because i love dave and his wife tells me, you nailed it. you absolutely got it. what about your wife, patrice? is there a character that reflects her at all? no. but the themes that are in this book are hers, and i tried to really highlight the importance of family we show in this book an arrangement that's fairly common between couples that aren't married when they have a child that i learned about from patrice, who's trained as a marriage and family therapist, they nest. and so the young daughter stays with the mom and the couple alternates on weeks staying at the mom's house. they nest and she suggested putting that in. i thought, what a cool idea to show

the ten year note yielding 3.9 even right now bring in our panel david kelly, stephanie link, and jim5 basis points, a hawkish message, what else are you looking for here >> first of all, i think they'll change their language about subsequent rate hikes instead of talking about the extent they raise rates further they'll talk about whether they need to raise them at all. the only question is will they raise them in november they have to admit inflation has come down, it may be elevated, we've gone from 9.1 to 3.0 when the fed talks about credibility they need to mention that if this is their number one goal to bring inflation down. >> what about that point, david said it's time for the fed to admit we've made progress here why do they seem reluctant to do so >> i've been behind the curving this whole cycle so it's not surprising i think they should be more measured at the press conference, the press release because as david mentioned cpi 9.1 down to 3. core is still elevated but down to 4.8 the big number is core pce because that's still 4, 4.5% that's the number we know they look at.

david kelly, former sdny chief, and i should mention, my former boss. good to see you tonight. >> good to see you. >> timing. everybody wants to know. nobody knows exactly, but what do you see as jack smith's likelies path here? >> hard to say, the tea leaves get a little confusing. on one hand he reportedly giving an offer to the former president to come in and testify right away, which suggests sooner rather than later, but other reports suggest witnesses are being scheduled a month out. once an indictment is why should it limits the ability of a prosecutor to issue grand jury subpoenas without explaining that it's an ongoing investigation that goes beyond the charges in the indictment, because he can't use a grand jury subpoena as a kind of trial prep tool. so if these witnesses are perceived to be important, and somebody like bernie tear reportedly being one of them, probably an important witness, may be a month out or more. >> you have everyone sort of excited, and we see understand that, but as you say, there's certain hints from the process. then

david kelly, former district attorney for the southern district of new york. full disclosure, my former boss, and christy greenberg, former chief of the southern district of new york. welcome to both of you. >> thanks for having us. >> i turn to you, david, and say what does it mean when special counsel smith sends a letter like this? >> let me tell you from the perspective of a defense lawyer. the last thing you ever want in the world is to get a target letter. a target letter to you means you're done. means you're going to get indicted, and it doesn't get sent -- it's not like a subpoena. prosecutors can send subpoenas out like it's nothing. but a target letter is a big deal, and it's a big deal when they receive it in the trump camp. must have set off an awful lot of alarms, meaning, what do we do next, because i'm about to be indicted. >> from a prosecutorle perspective, you mentioned both sides, but is it a bigger deal to go at the conduct of a sitting president? i went through the distinctions. >> never having gone after a sitting president, it certainly

this is an important conversation with david kelly, chief local strategist at j.p.t dr. kelly has done is say there is a point where non-firm payrolls will crack. for in your guesstimates of the -- fold in your guesstimates of the inflation view of -- punchier, that the labor market will crack. david: the labor market will eventually crack. the momentum that we saw in the second quarter of gdp has put that out a little bit and i think it is more likely to be very late in the year, early next year where we see a decline in payrolls but the much more important point is we are seeing disinflationary freeware stop we are seeing a deceleration and disinflation in the u.s. economy. the numbers of today, we will get 2/10 of a percent of the overall cpi and three 12% year-over-year looking at is at a seasonally adjusted basis but the key thing is -- i know the base fx goes away but i don't see inflation picking up from re-present and it stays 3% on headline cpi through december and it falls all the way through 2024 down to 2% by the end of the year as the shelter -- begins

we're just moments away now from fed chair powell's press conference let's get final thoughts from david kelly. higher for longer, is this a market that has accepted that, do you think, or does it need the messaging from the fed >> i don't think the fed can give that messaging with any certainty. people talk about the soft landing but the economy never lands there's always another quarter. winter is coming we don't know when winter is going to arrive but it will arrive eventually we'll have a recession, a month or two where payroll gains are negative. >> at that point the fed is going to have to cut rates we think get through 2023 but sometime in 2024 that could happen and then when the fed has to cut, the first cut will do nothing to help the situation. we've seen when the fed raises rates it's like going up an escalator when they cut rates it's going down an elevator. their own projections say they can bring rates down to their neutral rate slowly. never happened the market may be looking at that realize the fed is aggressive right now but won't be forever because landing won't stay soft for

david kelly has been leading on that jp morgan. then the september meeting. is that the new hawkish pause? jonathan: jackson hole will be a great forum. tom: it is a bigger mystery than last year. hopefully he will speak for one minute more. jonathan: we get nine minutes now? [laughter] you are going to be there? tom: we are going to be there. great group of people scheduled to be there. jonathan: nice. who is the kansas city fed president now? lisa a.: i do not think they have one yet. [laughter] jonathan: they have got to sort that out. georgia was always so welcoming. what hap? ♪ >>>> they will not move at the meeting after july but they will break like they did last time. and then we get to november 1. i can imagine it is possible we will see enough news it makes them confident they have done enough. in november rate hike is really up for grabs. jonathan: bill dudley talking about november. that is the argument right now. a lot of people starting to say one and done for the federal reserve. one more hike this month and then the

liz: billionaire and cofounder of the carlyle group david rubenstein kelly "the claman countdown" heill dodge every session for now but famed guru bob dall now disagrees. you see the big run ups that we have had this year for the dow up to and a third%, look at the s&p up 15% and then the nasdaq the real winner up 30% since the start of the year, he is now telling his clients that investors must get in a defensive crouch, first bob dole joins us live on how he is advising people to do just that. what is it that you see that prompted the shift? >> i don't know it's a whole lot new we've been fighting this for too long we have an inverted yield curve, money supply is shrinking and corporate profits peaked a few quarters ago angst are tightening the lending standards and the fed raised rates 500 basis points there threatening to do more, liquidity conditions are not great stocks are not cheap, the lineup tells me have a little caution. the average stock has not done much at all it's been the mega cap general. liz: you heard david rubenstein and he believes the data has shown and we have

years. >> wow you know, the high-end mall play, simon property group david, thank you very much appreciate your time today. >> thanks, kelly. >> david bahn, is en with the barnsen group. >>> good news for renters and not so much for apartment reits which could be in for a rude awakening. diana olick? >> for the first time since the start of the pandemic according to apartment list. rents fell 0.7% from july of last year and it might not sound like a lot, but it is indicative of a bigger slide to come and rent growth peaked at an astounding 18% annually in 2021. month to month rents were up very slightly 0.3% and that's much slower than historical averages for the month all right. why are rents cooling? because vacancies are rising vacancies hit 7.3% surpassing the previous peak in june of 2020 we've been warning about new supply coming on and here it is. there are currently a record number of apartment units under construction and being finished. so let's talk about the reits and will react to all of this. names like avalon bay which is set to report earnings later today and equity financial and apartment reits have been a

david. >> okay. kellyand peter baker, thank you both. >>> secretary yellen's visit to china comes as tensions rise between china and taiwan, the self-ruling democracy 100 miles off the china mainland, nbc's chief foreign correspondent richard engel visited the island and got rare access to military preparations. for what officials in taiwan see as inevitable conflict with china. >> reporter: this is one of taiwan's main training bases part of the island's front line defenses. military officials tell us they no longer believe it's a question of if china will invade, but when. >> nbc news was given rare access to a military base in southeastern taiwan. >> i feel pressure, like, this is what i do. >> reporter: where rookie pilots are preparing for what officials here see as an increasingly urgent threat from china to invade, stripping taiwan of its democracy and autonomy. >> we can all foresee there might be war with china. that's what we are all preparing to do, like we're trying to fight. >> first lieutenan

david: thank you very much, kelly kelly o'grady.e jake denton. a lot of money went into that particular brand, the tweet brand. it can be argued whether it was as successful as it should have been, that's why musk bought it. he thought he could make it even more successful. what do you think of the new branding? >> well, musk comes in, buy withs the app and wants to push it in a completely new direction, and so this kind of signifies the beginning of that. but you with also have to think back to right around when he purchased this and released the twitter files, you know, twitter's brand is tainted at this point. it has a ton of bag a act associated with it, and it does not represent the vision musk has for the company. so x signifies the dawn of a new era, something that, you know, can turn into that digital town square or, you know, it also can revolutionize the financial services sector, so it's exciting. david: on the other hand, it is a gamble. and he's now got this big competition from threads which is part of the facebook emp

with the death of david kelly, which is 20 years today, by the way, really since since that time bbchink, pretty useless at holding the government to government of the day to account. and we haven't seen any improvements since then. so there be some change there needs to be some change in their but in their approach. but listen, in terms select committee terms of the select committee today, good that tim davie terms of the select committee to there, good that tim davie terms of the select committee to there, but>od that tim davie terms of the select committee to there, but whyhat tim davie terms of the select committee to there, but why isn'tim davie terms of the select committee to there, but why isn't the)avie is there, but why isn't the editor of the sun there? because they've questions answer they've got questions to answer about the ebbers matter about how the hugh ebbers matter was dealt with and also, i mean, everybody concentrates on the bbc's news and current affairs coverage, but where else did it go wrong? >> let's take light entertainment. yeah and i was looking at the go

kelly and mark!" today, "abc world news tonight" anchor, david muir. and from the series underrated, nba superstar

david: meanwhile, mark zuckerberg's twitter competitor is up and running, and already we're hearing reports of censorship. kellyite with the very latest. >> reporter: that's right, meta is really taking a run at twitter here. we're already seeing this new app, threads, gain traction. 30 million sign-ups as of this morning. i tried it out. the app is primarily text-based for for now, but it links to your instagram account so i was able to follow the same folks with just one click and that's why analysts are calling this a potential twitter killer, because it'll leverage meta's existing user base. ceo mark zuckerberg said that threads is a, quote, open and friendly space for public conversation, but that does beg the question who's deciding what's open and friendly? some users are reporting when they try to follow certain accounts, they're getting this prompt asking if they're sure that they want to follow them as well as a warning that that account has repeatedly posted false information. and twitter files journalist michael shellenberger took it one step further, he's accusing the platform of withholding transp

environmentally friendly as we been told fox business correspondent kelly ready expense are something that in america. my name is john david carpten dr. kimberly stegmaier dr. edith perez i'm a medical oncologist and i focus on cancer prevention. people are always asking me two words come to mind for me. one is responsibility, the other is purpose. there was a child that you know i took care of and adored and she said to me dr. kim, you know, will you remember me forever? sorry, it's been a hard year. every day i think of the faces of patients when i see their smiles, when i tell them that new treatments are helping their lives. it's just so inspiring to do research that impacts human lives. stand up to cancer has been a critical partner in advancing research for cancer. cancer research saves lives. so please help us fight in this battle against cancer. we moved out of the city so our little sophie could appreciate nature. but then he got us t-mobile home internet. i was just trying to improve our signal, so some of the trees had to go. i might've taken it a step too far. (chainsaw revs) (tree crashes) (chainsaw continues)

kelly has filed evidence that he could not get merrick garland into david weiss to prosecutors on thisin of stuff that they've uncovered in the house ways and means. never seen a prosecutorial team less interested in the evidence that could help the case. if these guys have been going after alex murdaugh he would be ready to ramp up in office family members still. it's amazing that the disinterested in this mountain i whistleblower stuff, e-mails. david weiss, the prosecutor in delaware does not want to see what happens. at the last minute because they could not get the d.o.j.'s attention. they take it and file it with the court and essentially what they say they call it an amicus brief, what they're saying to the judge, your honor, you have to look at this and needs to be considered in this case. hunter's lawyers obviously light up they don't want it they start to oppose this in apparently one of their attorneys called the clerk and pretended to be, this is the allegation on mr. kidd lease team the house ways and means lawyer and said take it down. maria: that's unbelievable. what abo

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it says one of transformer chiefs of staff john kelly said that trump discussed having the irs and other officials investigate page. that is what davidnathan were just mentioning. how will this factor into trump's upcoming deposition? >> it is a question that he could be asked to go to his motive. i imagine that is a motive lawyers would want to ask him about. it is dangerous ground for him to be in a deposition. he has damaging information. he is obligated to share it truthfully. if he fails to, he could be in trouble for perjury. he has had difficulty to questions in a straightforward matter. his method of speaking has been described by former fbi director james comay as word salad. in a deposition, you can't get away with that. lawyers have all day. there is no worry about whether the viewers will get bored watching. they will ask all day, pin him down and demand he answer the question. it is a peerless situation for him to be in to answer these questions under oath. >> plaintiffs have the burden of showing their privacy rights were violated. it could result in money damages by the government. they would not be against donald trum

kelly, thanks so much. meantime, the biden administration has appealle a judge's ruling banning contact with social companies. david has more. >> the biden administration through the department ohio justice officially appealed to the fifth circuit court of appeals late yesterday. member in the federal law enforcement community are watch this closely. law enforcement and the fbi and dea all under the department of just tis umbrella regularly communicate with social media to take down posts or information relating to drug trafficking, human trafficking, sex trafficking, those types of things. that's something that they're looking at. with this federal judge ruling, the fbi and doj would be affected. the order written by a federal judge, terry dody. there was an injunction that restricts agency from communicating directly with social media companies and stops them taking down posts that contain protected free speech. the order applies to agencies like health and human services and the centers for disease control to name a few. the judge said he was concerned about how many times the government was communicating and va

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david? he asked me to -- no, he didn't. >> see you friday. >> kelly tomorrow. make sure you -- she only has one name "squawk on the street" is next ♪ >>> good wednesday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer at the new york stock exchange david faber is on assignment, heading to sun valley as joe says, where he'll have an exclusive with iger tomorrow at 8:00 a.m. eastern time >>> meantime, the bulls get their wish as june cpi comes in cool lowest monthly core in more than two years. yields are dropping, two-year near 4. 4.75% inflation falling to its lowest annual rate in two years >>> a judge rules microsoft can close its deal to buy activision >>> and domino's shares are surging, announcing this new partnership delivery with uber >>> let's begin with cpi coming in lighter than expected airfare is down, used cars down. >> there's a lot of oddities i mean, there's a couple of real wins that people aren't thinking about. you've got -- i mean, well, again, you definitely have the used cars, very good, but shelter's down a

david. >> let the secret service do their job it's under their purview. >> reporter: officials point out that all white house visitors are screened to detect weapons or dangerous chemicals that could be used to harm others >> kelly joining me now. kelly, what are the expectations the secret service will be able to find the individual responsible? >> reporter: well, lester, officials are tamping down expectations. unless forensic evidence is found like dna, they say they may not be able to solve this because the baggie is so small, video surveillance may not have captured the incident, lester >> all right, kelly, thank you. >>> the last two days have been the hottest ever recorded on earth. scientists say it's a dire new phase for our planet as cities nationwide hit new highs today. emilie ikeda reports >> reporter: tonight, a crippling heat presses on fueling fires in the western u.s. and baking residents in northern california in triple-digit temperatures for an eighth day in a row. >> drinking a lot of gatorade, water, staying hydrated >> reporter: tampa, el paso, and portland all threatening record highs today and a staggering 109 degrees in tucson. >> we stepped out of the apartment, and it started. >> repor

david? he asked me to -- no, he didn't. >> see you friday. >> kelly tomorrow.welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer at the new york stock exchange david faber is on assignment, heading to sun valley as joe says, where he'll have an exclusive with iger tomorrow at 8:00 a.m. eastern time >>> meantime, the bulls get their wish as june cpi comes in cool lowest monthly core in more than two years. yields are dropping, two-year near

david zerbos. not many pound the table how right the fed is doing it for months. right after svb and i give you credit i won't go on and on. >> thanks, kellyk, big hiking rates next week. making a point in my last piece, what you referenced. i may disappoint many times. it's fallen on deaf ears, which should have assets as long as they are, mortgages tightening up and housing market so strong. even though a little weakness there. >> they might say why do anything other than what we're doing? according to you, masterful. >> we have i'm fully onboard with masterful idea and fully onboard with another rate hike. we get a couple .2s, get in cpi before the september, i think could pause for sure .3 on either one or above, probably go again. i guess throw it out there as, hey, if inflation doesn't come down as fast as they're thinking, if we're not getting down to 3.9 to 3.6 by end of the year, why not consider, assets sales instead of another hike in september or another set of hikes. people out there think hthey're going to 6% or 6.5%. they're not optimistic i throw it out there able's things stabilized and long end trading well and giving opp

kelly, no longer in charge there >> yeah. okay >> tough you have nothing to say on that one, do you? >> not right now >> all right move on. >> davidzon and the idea that jassy's getting religion and they don't want to spend a fortune on food there was an amazon conference that i did not get invited to. >> i don't get invited to anything i literally get invited to nothing. you know that. >> you really do >> i had to fly to sun valley. i couldn't even get in apple has things -- they have things where they give you the vision pro and let you try it on i never get invited to that stuff. >> i don't get invited >> i didn't know about the amazon thing that i wasn't invited to >> let's talk about honeywell down eight this quarter was quite good, but it's the first quarter people did not like the fact he kept the numbers the same. travel trust owned it for a long time when the stock is at $195, you're going to start buying it. pretty simple. it wasn't that bad a quarter, and yet, people are just freaking out, because people don't understand how to trade. >> every quarter that's -- every time the stock is down, and it's -- you say it's not

david remnick joins us with his new piece for "the new yorker" when "morning joe" comes right back. ight back just like i stole kellyol. you got no game dude, that's a foul! and now you're ready to settle the score. game over. and if you don't have the right home insurance coverage, well, you could end up paying for all this yourself. so get allstate, and be better protected from mayhem, yeah, like me. thanks, bro. take a lap, rookie. real mature. i need it cool at night. tayou trying to ice me out of the bed? baby, only on game nights. you know you are retired right? am i? ya! save up to $500 on the new sleep number® smart bed. plus, 60 month financing on most smart beds. shop now only at sleep number®. - i'm lynette. this is my husband, arthur. - yeah, you wouldn't believe we're in our 70's, huh? (lynette and arthur laugh) - i have recommended consumer cellular to so many people. - she was the one to convince me to come over to her side. (arthur laughs) - that's right! - [announcer] come over to consumer cellular and start saving. get unlimited talk and text with a flexible data plan, starting at just $20 a month.