johnson county, of, course actually has the highest concentration of college degrees of any county inrprise, it's where the university of iowa's. but we talked about that being the backbone of a lease coalition, that she had built in iowa. college degrees, higher incomes, suburban, metropolitan dwellers. this is a county tailor made to her and it looks like there has been a projection it will be the only county she, winds that a non-trump candidate wins. haley was competitive but frankly a little disappointing for her campaign -- a big suburban counties outside of des moines. i think the haley campaign thought they should get closer, even beat trump there. you look at paul, county this is the biggest county in the state by far were des moines's. a lot of suburbs there to. haley finishing, may end up finishing third place here. also a disappointment for her. but these are the areas where she ran that last. i start with her because, if anybody in the next contest in new hampshire is going to give trump around there, it's going to be the kayleigh. it's what all the polls show, certainly,

so the difference of one vote in johnson county may and it seems will prevent donald trump from havingunty has the highest concentration of degrees in iowa, no surprise it's where the university is. we talked about that being the backbone of haley's coalition she built in iowa. college degrees, higher incomes, suburban, urban metropolitan dwellers. that's going to be the only county she wins, the only county a nontrump candidate wins. haley was competitive but frankly disappointing for her campaign in dallas county, big suburban county outside demoans. you look at polk county where des moines is, a lot of suburbs there, too. haley finish surprise still fewer votes here. also a disappointment for her, but these are the areas where she ran the best. and i start with her because if anybody in the next contest in new hampshire is going to give trump a run there it's going to be nikki haley. and demographically the group she did the best with tonight independent voters. exit polls with independent voters made up 16% tonight. ennew hampshire next week they could make up 45% or so of the elec

one vote, nikki haley leads in johnson county. we will see if that holds, 99% of the votes in. and one other number from iowa before we leave iowa behind is that we just got word that asa hutchinson has suspended his campaign. asa hutchinson received 191 votes in iowa. 191 votes, and donald trump now 56,260, and asa hutchinson who is one of the candidates who is willing to campaign directly against donald trump, and it got him 191 votes. as we go to new hampshire, one of the things closely here, and we will talk about it next week who can vote in the republican primary there, this is the voter registration in new hampshire. you can see 268,000 republicans, 262,000 democrats, and they can't vote in the republican primary, but this group here undeclared 143,000, and they can vote in the republican primary and they may make up most of the republican primary voters, and it is a very different group to reach than any of the voters in iowa, because they tend to be moderates and independents, and it is going to be interesting how the candidates approach them. we will get to new hampsh

so, the difference of one vote in johnson county may, it seems well, prevent donald trump from havingunty sweep, literally a difference of one vote, and interesting nugget at the end of the night. johnson county, of course, actually has the highest concentration of college degrees of any county in iowa, no surprises, where the university of iowa is. but when we talk about sort of that being the backbone of haley's coalition that she built in iowa, college degrees, higher incomes, suburban, urban, metropolitan dwellers. you know, this is a county tailor-made to her. it does look like she's gonna be, it's gonna be the only county she wins, the only county where a non-trump candidate once. nikki haley is competitive, but frankly disappointing for her campaign here in dallas county, big suburban county outside des moines. i think the haley campaign thought it could can get close, or maybe even beat trump there. this is polk county, the biggest county in the state, where des moines is. haley is finishing, i think, a surprise, still fewer votes here. but she may end up finishing third place

also out here in johnson county, the university of iowa. college-educated suburban. that is haley's target zone. we will see if she hits that tonight. i mention scott county and that is where bettendorf is. also davenport as it cuts its way to the eastern edge of iowa. marco rubio did well there also. let's go back and look at all this. rubio was doing well in counties that tend to be larger. easily the top 10 towns in all of iowa rubio did well. but ted cruz and donald trump split it up really well. look up in the northwestern part of the state. a lot of people have talked about this. these four counties don't have a ton of books, but they are evangelical. all four of them has voted as a block for the winner going back to 2008, mike huckabee. a truly remarkable record for this squad of here in the corner. what is donald trump going to do? eight years ago evangelical voters in places like iowa were skeptical. now they've got a record. he's got a record he can run on. if you talk to people in iowa they talk about the supreme court appointments, the decision of roe v. w

and along the mississippi river in johnson county which i will get to in a minute. eight years ago. hang on to the counties i just mentioned. and let's come to today. if this sucker will take me back to the time machine. got it, okay. i'm going to poke around right now and we will find out together where the two are facing off right here between desantis and nikki haley. here is polk county, des moines. she's got about an eight or nine-point lead over desantis. let's go to dallas county. suburbs to the west of des moines. you can see it's about two and a half points for desantis over nikki haley. that's the kind of performance he wants in a county like dallas. a lot of suburbs. they are building an apple planned out there. there's a lot of growth right there on the west side of des moines, iowa. this is story county. they are counting slow, that or they've got a big caucus and they will give us a big dump at some point tonight. but they only have 7% of the vote reporting. and nikki haley, based on that, has a comfortable 14 to 15-point lead. we see story county, iow

johnson county is a large county and ranks 4 out of 99. rubio did well here eight years ago. these are a lot of the voters that nikki haley is going after. college-educated, suburban, et cetera. you know the drill. we will see if she can keep that away from ron desantis. that is happening on the east side of the mississippi river. over on the missouri side we can pop down and check in on pottawatomie. 10% of the vote counted right now. trump is hanging on. i want to emphasize to our viewers at home that we've got a ways to go. 105 rob votes. 26 raw votes. let me see if i can change the screen. there it is. 13 raw votes for vivek ramaswamy. it will move throughout the night. one cool feature we've got this year is we don't have to do math live on the air anymore. this button right here if you are watching at home or on your computer or mobile device it shows you the raw votes between first and second place. in any particular county or even statewide. we can click on it and it changes the percentage point. donald trump is up 43.8 points. that's the way it is tabulator right now

>> when you look at iowa, nikki haley in johnson county. areas that are least likely to turn out of a republican primary. wasn't able to match that within the counties in iowa. i don't see a path for either one of them moving forward. one of the polling averages to be right. new hampshire and south carolina would put the head of everybody. >> as we look towards november and a potential rematch between trump and biden, you wrote "comes victory in november will be way more resource intensive than a haley or ron desantis victory." meaning the republican party and fundraisers and donors are going to have to divert a lot more money to the presidential race to the top of the ticket. instead of spending it on house races, senate races, governor races and beyond. at the top of the ticket, when it comes to battleground states are coming to harm down races? >> look, i think it can. here's the thing republicans are going to do. all the polls show that trump is doing better than he ever done before but as you actually pull people who turned out in 2020,

he is out in johnson county. that's the university of iowa where pizza is reporting from. the nikki haley voters we are going for. the other shot was in sioux county. you have the split screen. its way appear in the northwest. it tends to be evangelical. ted cruz won that county eight years ago. we will see whether or not donald trump can may be show some advantage. we will see it all filled in. >> did you see in the shot that it looked crowded? i've been here in passed years and it was more crowded. >> in four republicans in 2020 it wasn't much. but 216,187,000. 10 candidates were here in iowa from the republican side. you have a really good turnout. they are saying 150 give or take. if you want to figure out a bellwether, you look at this map in figure 99 counties on the grid. where you put your eyes or attention. we found this county right here, calhoun. the reason we point to that is look where ted cruz finished. trump at 24.5. you see that? now you come out light and they match pretty much 27.5 to 24.5 from eight years ago. can i show you something else? do we have ti

one county where nikki haley finished above him, and it was by one single vote in johnson county. is where the university of iowa is, and iowa city. in the general election this would be the most democratic county in iowa by far. haley beats him by one vote and denies trump the 99 for 99 sweep. beyond that, obviously, the big story -- it's the size and the scale of trump's victory, getting 51% of the previous vote, and trump breaks that record by bush, and the margin is 30 points between trump and desantis, and the previousest biggest gap was in 2012. the biggest growth you saw for trump were in the most evangelical counties. sioux county, this was donald trump's worst county in iowa in 2016. you don't even see him listed in the top three. he got 11% here in 2016. there was a lot of resistance to donald trump among evangelicals when he first became a candidate, and now a lot has changed in the last eight years, and he went from 11% and jumped to 34% and won the county against desantis. this is the exact kind of county desantis was going hard for in iowa. he got lots of evangelical

we were tracking johnson county earlier. here. haley was leading in the early count here. she's now been passed by donald trump. again, that would be somewhat significant if trump were able to win a county like this. this is one of the most ill-suited to him in a republican caucus, certainly a general election. trump now is ahead a little bit. haley does have a bit of a pad here over desantis. you could see it's about 400 votes. take a look in 2016, rubio was able to get 800 more than the state-wide winner, ted cruz, who he was chasing. about 900 more than donald trump. so, again, haley wants to have as big a pad as she can in a county like this. forget trump at this point for her. she'd love to see it colored in her shade of red, but she wants to get a pad here over desantis. still remaining to be seen, we're sitting at 29% in sioux county. i think this is a little bit more, just a sliver more than the last time we checked in. this is the kind of county that desantis wants to be getting a pad over nikki haley. again, this i

this i another college town, iowa city here in johnson county, the university of iowa is here. nikki haley won this county by one vote. let's pull back a little bit and give some context why donald trump won. there were two areas people were playing close attention to whether ron desantis would have a pathway forward or whether nikki haley would have a pathway forward. the first is suburban voters. if you want to take a look at the 13 counties that cnn identifies as suburbs, donald trump winning 12 of those 13 counties. what happened in 2016, donald trump lost ten of those 13 counties. the light red is marco rubio. the yellow is ted cruz. that was supposed to be where nikki haley was supposed to make a big run. she won by one vote, lost every other one of those counties. donald trump cleaned up. when you look at the northwest part of the state back in 2016. this is evangelical country. this is where ted cruz dominated and where donald trump did very, very poorly. take a look perhaps at sioux county right here where donald trump not even in the top three, how did that turn out in

democrats thinking about coming to caucus for nikki haley, so for her to be in counties like johnson countynd scott county and polk county today, it matches with going after those types of voters. host: you said that is more the central part of the state, right? >> central and east, yeah. host: what about florida governor desantis? where does he need to do well? >> governor desantis has been blanketing the state and has gone all over. he has been talking about the 99 county torah lot which is a reference to what i want republican senator chuck grassley does every year. he visited each county once each year. governor desantis is made that part of the campaign strategy, so we are trying to blanket the state and pick up votes in all areas and try to build up his support that way, then he has a strong operation out there working for him as well, not just his campaign but the super pacs backing in and handling grassroots organizations kind of work, and their hope is that they can find support in every corner of the state from conservative western to more liberal leaning eastern iowa and all pock

twice when he campaigned in this state, he won every county except for one, and that was johnson county. that was in 2010 and 2016. otherwise he did it. the full grassley he won all 99 counties. >> dana: we'll have to keep you around, you are full of information and i love information and we love these ladies with us, jessica and kelly and katie. fox news contributors all. here we are, kellyanne, kicking off the 2024 election not too far away. primary still underway. nikki haley says it's a two-person race. >> she is right. a two-person race between donald trump and joe biden. time to heal and unify the party the way ramaswamy and others in congress and governorships coming out to endorse donald trump are doing. maybe people see him as the unlikely unifyer but this is the will of the people. dana, whether you are in this business or in politics and more importantly government the rule of the people is the most important thing and they have spoken loudly and clearly. if bill is talking about one county, 1% of the state that went for nikki haley, that tells thetale. these races will come

if you were to drive, bret, two hours due east of here hit johnson county johnson county is the universityr kaitlin clark and good reason who because she is a great basketball player. four years ago that was prime territory for marco rubio. we will see whether or not nikki haley can replicate what she did. some people believe you can take iowa and cut it in three, right? more conservative, more moderate, more liberal. i want to draw your attention throughout the evening to these mississippi counties where donald trump did really well. and on the west side of the state along the missouri river, look what trump did here. this is conservative iowa. woodbury county. he was successful over ted cruz that year. pot that bought me county. maybe the best name of the night, actually ted cruz as well. lay of the land, maybe some sort of expectation it's a blank slate, okay? sometime in the 8:00 eastern hour, the colors will start popping in. and we are going to see red or orange or blue or green, depending on who does the best here tonight in iowa. bret, back to you. >> bret: yeah. it's going to be f

only that one county, johnson county, and nikki haley won. 2016. this is trump and that is trump and that is trump, but that is mark arroyo, that's ted cruz in. there is pushed in 2016. he is now, after some weakness as president in the suburb, showing signs that he might be able to rebuild in the suburbs at least with rubble can's. it is just simply dominant. if you take this out and look again we can go deeper into the numbers, we can do all these detailed explanations or we can just do that. that is a wow. that is what the math, the vote tell us in iowa as it has a filled in. but before it filled in, our political director saw this, david, as the early and principle started to come in you are looking is at trump vulnerable? you know, it is in the suburbs, rural voters, is that the issues? the answer was no. >> exactly. he was -- not any slice of it. but one of the things that i looked at was how is he doing with the issues that matter most to iowa republicans? so, overall tonight, the economy was the number one issue. 38% of iowa caucus goe

some of his rivals, and the only one that even looks close right now is johnson county. that's a university of iowa is. and that's a virtual tie with nikki haley. so if you're trump and you're the trump campaign, you're trying to make the point that, you know what? he's actually the consensus choice of all sorts of republicans. you can see that in the iowa map tonight because iowa has a lot of different places and all of them are trump country tonight. and this resounding victory in many ways comes from the enthusiasm index that you've talked about, that these maga supporters showed up in force. yeah, this was really striking from the des moines register poll right before the caucuses, 88% of trump supporters in their poll said that they were enthusiastic about voting for him. contrast that with nikki haley only about 39. that's a huge she underperformed a little bit. this is why, because especially in a caucus, you need people who are excited or enthusiastic that are motivated to do it. and in a night like this, the turnout was a bit lower than people thought, probably

the riley. 7 this is wanda. 7 containers on companies which are being used in the civilians in johnson county. one day on the interim judgment of the international court of justice, which is a historic result. the 1st time that one of the golden circle of 17 o 20 western countries. and there are lies throughout the world, and of course is rarely a nation. so the nato countries, primary ally in the middle east. uh the 1st time that one of them has to be not to be labeled as committing genocide. i expect to be a farm is in front of digging in when he comes to the dispute with a government that protests continue to grow with yet even more roads and major highways been blocked by attractive. but there's a bad side of the already dire situation in the are kind of in the industry is getting was every year. a lot that's going on. we are here because we are tired of everything that the french government is doing. and the new rules it is imposing on us. on top of that, we have to follow your p and rules all the paperwork. the tax is going up, everything going up as always produce more or less. i don't

500 people have been rescued. katrina, you has more from beachy this sounds like the place in johnson county and trying to southwest and united province at 5 50 am on monday morning. which means many people were inside. the horns to sleep and emergency came of about 200 people were dispatched immediately. more than 500 people from that village has been evacuated and people are desperately searching for the dozens of people trapped under the rubble. reports of late from 18 different families in that village, a presidency, the thing has sent out a message badging o out rescue effort saying this is tragically happening so close just weeks away from the union. you use celebration the biggest annual holiday here in china. so thought no holes has been identified for this land slide, but a similar lands i took place 11 years ago in the same county and 46 people died in that incident. not this rest of the operation is happening under extremely difficult conditions. a cold wave is clearly sweeping across the plain. it's close to freezing temperatures during the day and dial tone counties of the night

they showed up in the largest numbers in polk county, des moines, johnson county, iowa city, you sawor mitt romney in the past, george w bush in the past, people who have left the republican party since donald trump became the figurehead and the leader of the party — they did not turn out for the caucuses. that tells us a lot about the different states, a lot about new hampshire — that is the kind of voter nikki haley needs to come out for her on tuesday. the trump base is much more loyal and active than the moderate republicans who might come out and be convinced to stop him. nick, what did you make of the turnout? i think in the end it was about 100,000 people, usually it is closer to about 160 and 180. presidentjoe biden one of those coming out and saying this was not as big and strong of a win for donald trump as it might have appeared at first. is there anything to that argument? i think dave's point is the most salient, it was just really, really cold. and you are going to get the most diehard supporters who are willing to brave —20, —30 feels like temperatures, and president t

voters that the biden campaign was trying to talk to yesterday, in and outside of wake county, johnson countye county, around the raleigh area, mecklenburg county in charlotte, ka bare ras county, there are a lot of suburban voters there that are very troubled with the economy but also don't like donald trump, and they don't know where they're going to go with this direction yet. and polling shows consistently -- and look, we can argue over how correct an individual poll is versus another, but the real trends here say that there are a lot of voters that are up for grabs that previously voted for the other candidate. it makes both campaigns put themselves in a nervous position. >> so the democrats are heavily relying on two things, one hoping that the anti-trump sentiment is as strong as it was in 2020 in 2024 again. they're also relying on abortion being an issue, and looking ahead to the end of this supreme court term when they might rule on mifepristone, that flooding it back into the conscience of americans again, is it risky or is it reliable to rely on abortion as a motivating issue? >>

and in johnson county, nikki haley won by all of 1 vote. that's not a sweeping victory based on my math. not a math guy, but pretty confident in that. how did he do it? two things we were watching coming into this caucus experience. one was up here. the northwest area of the state. this is gel call country. this is country that donald trump struggled with in 2016. donald trump winning all four of those counties. flip back to 2016, he lost all of them. he for the most part didn't really place well at all not even in the top three in some of those counties. flip to 2024, he wins by 14 points. this is the type of county that ron desantis focused heavily on. donald trump blew him out of the water. what about the suburbs? this is an area that marco rubio polled off. this was supposed to be where hnikki haley had big wins. not this time around. in 13 of the counties cnn labels as suburbs, donald trump won 12 of them. only losing 1. back in 2016, he lost 10 of those 13 counties. so across the board, whether it's evangelicals, educated voters, dona

including like winnebago county, and yes, that's where the motorhome came into being there, and johnson countythe university of iowa is, and iowa city, scott county, davenport, and if ron desantis hopes to pull off a better than expected performance, he's got to do well up here in the northwest part of the state, which is where ted cruz did well, and mike huckabee did well, rick santorum pulled out a win by doing well in the four counties. do you think these candidates can exceed expectations in these particular places? >> yeah, i think that remains to be seen. i do agree, like northwest iowa is a heavy evangelical, i would add sioux county as well, heavy on evangelicals but trump also does well with evangelicals, desantis has been courting that vote. you look at those urban counties, nikki haley would be expected to run strong in those counties. those are the counties that marco rubio won, he won five counties in 2016. not enough to win the caucuses but especially if she runs up the vote in the urban counties to have the -- meet the goal of doing well in iowa. >> john: and if 2016 is any indi

nikki handed him his only defeat in johnson county, winning by a single vote.t county is home to iowa city and the university of iowa, you know, a diverse college town, likely full of the same type of college educated or independent voters that haley is banking on as she moves onto new hampshire. while ron desantis went straight to south carolina today in the hopes that he can peel off a tiny remaining sliver of white evangelicals from trump there. for nikki haley, the question becomes where do you go? while she's likely to do well with new hampshire's large number of independent voters, success there could just be the beginning of a pipe dream. although she did show one little bit of gumption there refusing to participate in any debates unless donald trump debates. south carolina happens to have an even higher percentage of white evangelical voters. the numbers on the get more daunting come super tuesday. with white evangelical voters embracing donald trump and trending towards a full-throated embrace of christian nationalism, a stunning new ad from the lincol

it is interesting to note that iowa city is in johnson county which one of the more democratic strongholds across iowa. that is important because nikki haley is someone to appeal to more moderate republicans. we'll see if there are maybe any democrats in the room supporting her. i met some students from the university of iowa who are out supporting her. and the weather cannot be ignored. all of her events yesterday had to be canceled. former president trump, three of his four events across the state have been canceled because it is frigid here, because there are blizzards across the state. it is really quite frankly dangerous in some ome places. negative degree, potentially negative 10 to 15 on caucus day. and nikki haley reminding folks to wear layers, that this is something that they need to be cognizant of, but encouraging them to show up. listen to it. >> the fellas are scared, i'm telling you, you can see our numbers going up in the polls. americans just want to see if it is possible. and you are going to set the tone. this starts with iowa. y'all know how to do this. you take this re

they are concentrated around the state capitol, des moines, polk county, dallas county, johnson countycounty, ames, iowa state university. those are the kinds of places. she did well, very well last night in a couple of places there. maybe not quite as well as she wanted. certainly competitive. where the floor fell out for haley and where desantis ran up numbers on her, there is a lot of small rural counties throughout the state that individually don't add up to much in terms of the statewide vote. but that collectively do. and in those i give you a couple of examples here. van buren county very small, haley single digits. just 6% right there. take a look. you know, wayne county, down by the missouri border, again you don't see haley in the top four in this county. she finished behind ramaswamy. take a look at ring old county, haley single digits. you know, desantis getting blown out by trump. these add up. it's not a ton of numbers, but there is a whole bunch of these around the state. basically, one quarter of the counties in iowa last night nikki haley finished in single digits in.

>> in johnson county where the university of iowa is. the reality is, before we go forward and talk about new hampshire, let's go back. donald trump won iowa because he was afraid of losing. i'm told that his advisors came to him during his state fair visit in august, senator, said sir, you could lose this state if you don't focus more and come here more. so beginning after labor day we saw him travel there. certainly not as much as desantis or nikki haley, but he campaigned for a former president in places that former presidents do not go. he took his motorcades through smaller towns and called individuals. looked like he was parachuting in but this was by design and his ground game was key. it was a landslide victory. the headline into new hampshire is donald trump is on the cusp of continuing his grip on the party, but not just yet. we've seen history show that new hampshire likes its own say in this. >> that is true. what great reporting about what happened about -- that made him really focus there. it certainly paid off. omar, i mea

. >> that one yellow county, johnson county, unbelievable. haley is betting on the larger moderate vote in new hampshire that kristen was just talking about, where polls show that her seven points, where polls do show her seven points currently behind trump. the first signs of a real crack in his dominance. new hampshire's primary is just a week away. that's where we find our omar jimenez. he's in manchester, new hampshire. so omar, talked us about how nikki haley plans, as she says, to make this a two person race, just between her and trump, forcing rhonda scent is out? >> yeah, so she really wants to lean into some of that, again, moderate support and some of those undeclared or independent voters that we have here in new hampshire, to try and bolster a real challenge to the former president, a challenge in which we have not seen actually materialize to this point at any point in the primary process. so, one of those ways is she's changing her framing. we've heard her a little bit last night talking how she's viewing this as a two person ra

why he did quite well, these are the suburbs, the areas where he ran up big votes, iowa city, johnson countywhere the university of iowa s davenport as well, these were areas where nikki haley will have to do something similar. if you want to see where the big population areas are in the state look at the size of the bubbles, the bigger the bubble the more people that are there. the big population centers, marco rubio, marco rubio, marco rubio, marco rubio. they're saying that's great i want to run up vote there but that's also what made third place in 2016. so spread out and go further north and try to pick up votes there as well. big population centers are critical, especially the way population has moved the last couple of years. it won't be enough particularly given trump's strength around the rural parts of the area. can they push out if you're nikki haley. if you are ron desantis can you get the evangelical vote and cut in in the suburbs as well? it will determines what happens tonight. >>> donald trump, nikki haley, ron desantis all today out with their parkas making their final pitch

johnson county.but it's where iowa city is. the university of iowa. it still produces a good number of votes on the republican side. this was rubio territory in '16. is it haley territory tonight? so those are some keys we're going to be looking at. evangelical counties that resisted trump in 2016 and went for ted cruz is trump turned it completely around there or is desantis giving him a run for his money in some of those? in those suburban and urban counties, college degrees, higher incomes is nikki haley running up big margins there that might get her to second place that might get a surprise showing for her? and again, trump did poorly in those counties as well. has he improved at all? >> one of the questions, steve, and you talked about this, i have, is about what will show nikki haley has expanded her coalition? and you mentioned some of these very big counties. polk where des moines is. story countcounty. lynn county where college campuses are. johnson county. where are the places you may be w

in the des moines's suburbs and johnson county, she won only about half as many votes as rubio did, with the same kind of voters. and the comparable risk here is that this muffled, nuanced, he was the right president at the time chaos right way or wrong way as if he is an innocent bystander. the risk is she is simply not going to inspire the level of turnout she needs among undeclared voters who are the most resistant to trump because there is just not enough fuel in the engine there. >> very different challenges here. i was at a nikki haley event in peterborough when she asked the crowd who is the first time seeing me? almost every hand went up and then i went to a jd vance event for trump's elsewhere and he asked who here is this your first trump event? no one raised their hand. his challenge is turnout. getting his people the most passionate trump fans to the polls and hers is persuasion, getting these folks who might be on the fence, who might be undecided voters and getting them to vote for her. we will see how they do it at the end of the day but i their challenges are very differe

johnson county, iowa city. g to have a breakout showing, this has to be the core of it. the five rubio counties, is she winning any of them, rolling up big numbers there? that could get her second place, could get her a strong story line she's looking to have coming out of tonight. >> steve kornacki, thank you. >>> in 60 seconds we'll dig into the candidates' strategy on this cold and critical day with the editor-in-chief of the iowa capital dispatch and former advisor to george w. bush and john mccain. don't go away. don't go away. that can treat a migraine when it strikes and prevent migraine attacks. treat and prevent, all in one. don't take if allergic to nurtec. allergic reactions can occur, even days after using. most common side effects were nausea, indigestion, and stomach pain. relief is possible. talk to a doctor about nurtec odt. my skin has been so much smoother so much more hydrated. it's olay! with olay hyaluronic body wash 95% of women had visibly-better skin. and my skin is so much more moisturiz

that's johnson county. she will be looking in that area. rubio did well four years ago. ndents. what i would point your attention to is the mississippi river counties now you see a lot of independents here as they vote and again here along the minnesota border up north. a bit of a breakdown. slide back over to the river center in des moines. wonderful place, awesome to be here the last couple of days. dana perino is sitting patiently waiting for her partner for return. >> dana: i think you got it at the board. i don't think there is anything i would know that you don't know. people love it when you are at the board. >> bill: we have 15 hours. it would be interesting if you key on a lot of these counties throughout the day you will be able to say what about this and what about that? when it breaks tonight around 8:00 eastern time back in new york we'll see whether or not they match up the way we expect. >> dana: i look at youth vote to be curious. certainly evangelical. rural and suburban and i also think that it's important to look at this new voter. vivek ramaswamy grabb

the turnout she needed in the places she was strongest, in des moines suburbs, story county, johnson county, she won only about half as many votes as rubio did, the same kind of voters, in '16. and the rcomparable risk here i that this muffled nuance, he was the right president at the time, chaos follows him rightly or wrongly, as if he's an innocent bystander, she is not going to inspire undeclared voters who are most resistant to trump because there's just not enough fuel in the engine there for them. >> well, they have very different challenges here, right? i was at a nikki haley event in peters borrow, and she asked the crowd, who here is it your first time seeing me? and almost every hand went up. and i went to a j.d. vance event for trump elsewhere, and he asked who here this is your first trump event. no one raised their hand. his challenge is turnout. getting his people the most passionate trump fans to the polls. and hers is persuasion, getting these folks who might be on the fence, who might be undecided voters and getting them to vote for her. we'll see how they do at the end of

two-person race, i wonder if we can bring the map back up of full iowa in red and one county in johnson county for nikki haley in darker red. that tells the story of how nikki haley is pitching the rest of this race. it is a fly in the soup kind of moment. if you look at that map. it is also nikki haley's reminder in a very literal sense that she wants to be the person who is standing toe to toe with trump. she is the only person who was able to take any county away from him, albeit by one vote, one vote is enough, though, to turn that county a different color. and that is what nikki haley is betting on. it is why her campaign speech last night rang a little bit differently than it typically does. a lot of doing the same of equating donald trump and joe biden, it is also why she's running ads like this one on the air here in new hampshire. watch. >> the two most disliked politicians in america? trump and biden. both are consumed by chaos, negativity and grievances of the past. the better choice for a better america? nikki haley. >> i have a different style and approach. >> reporter: look, this

johnson county. this is where the university of iowa is.avily democratic but there's a lot of population there. if haley, she wants to beat desantis for second, she wants to make a statement. those are the core counties to look at for haley tonight, and again, the other question to them too is has donald trump improved at all since 2016. >> yeah, and you know, jacob covering iowa caucuses over the years, it's been such a fascinating process to watch. it's not like you just show up and you vote for the candidate you want and then head home if you have to be there, but it's so -- the process is lengthy, and it's really fascinating. you're at a high school that will serve as a caucus site for the entire county. how exactly will tonight's caucuses work there? >> yeah, it is incredible, jose. this is very different from the democratic caucus process where everyone gathers in one room and just on what steve was talking about, this is one of those counties wappalo county, and we're going to see what margin trump wins compared to last year. this is

i took place in johnson county in china, southwest in united province at 5 50 am on monday morning. which means many people were inside in the forms of sleep. an emergency team of about 200 people were dispatched immediately within 500 people from that village has been evacuated and people are desperately searching for the dozens of people trapped under the rubble of reports of late from 18 different families. in that village, a presidency. the thing has sent out a message urging our rescue efforts, saying this is tragically happening so close just weeks away from the new year's celebration, the biggest the holiday here in china. so thought no holes has been identified for this land slide, but a similar lands i took place 11 years ago in the same county and 46 people died in that not this rest of operation is happening under extremely difficult conditions. a cold wave is currently sweeping across the plain. it's close to freezing temperatures during the day and jobs from counties an overnight drop through about minus 5 degrees celsius. so that shows that crucial survival window for

the blue county on your screen is the one nikki haley won tonight in iowa, johnson county.very patient listening to these candidates. we've heard from the top four. we won't hear if any more in iowa. what do you think of the results of the iowa caucuses? andrew, you've got to mute your television, please. just talk through your phone. you ready. caller: yeah. hello. host: let me go to michael, albertson, new york, a democratic caller. caller: hello. thank you for taking my call. during the unique iowa caucuses, i heard much about god and country, tickets being punched, america first. but i didn't hear anything about u.s. constitution. the greatest benefit to humanity in 1,000 years. the same constitution which gives donald trump, unqualified to be president, yet he won the caucuses. hawkeye needs glasses. iowa must be the state of confusion. host: all right, michael. jeremy in fenton, missouri. jeremy, let's hear from you. caller: the last caller, he says that the president's been convicted of a felony? i didn't know he was convicted. i think you're innocent until proven gu

you see pope county and story county looked leaning towards nikki haley and johnson county. be more moderate republicans so that is why they are turning away from trouble because they see trumpism somebody who can beat joe biden. ., , trumpism somebody who can beat joe biden. . , , ., joe biden. nikki haley is not moderate- _ joe biden. nikki haley is not moderate. she _ joe biden. nikki haley is not moderate. she is _ joe biden. nikki haley is not moderate. she is quite - joe biden. nikki haley is not moderate. she is quite to i joe biden. nikki haley is notl moderate. she is quite to the right of the republican party on several issues but are you surprised to see, i think in black hawk she was on 30% and a% of pressings reported. we cannot draw too many conclusions but there is a sense she has a lot of independence leaning towards her or people who are republican butjust don't want donald trump. republican but 'ust don't want donald trump._ republican but 'ust don't want donald trump. let's make clear that moderate _ donald trump. let's make clear that moderate is _ donald

it's dallas, polk, it's story, lynn county, cedar rapids, johnson and scott. those counties have a huge population. she could win those five counties. desantis could win 20 counties and she might finish much better because that's where the votes are. they are more affluent, higher education and i think that's where i'll be watching to see if she breaks through and has a good night and leaves iowa on fire into new hampshire. >> thank you so much more coming out. appreciate it, even if your car was very cold. >> thanks for having me. >>> up next, once the gop darling, florida governor ron desantis battles for a second place finish to save his presidential campaign. he says he's not worried, though. >> nikki haley could not possibly beat donald trump. she doesn't have enough support among core conservatives. >> what if you come in third? >> we're going to do well. >> what is well? >> we're going to do well. >> announcer: today the iowa caucuses. in this high-stakes race, who will come out on top? cnn breaks down the results with the best political team in the busi

look in johnson county, iowa city, university of iowa.se are the places any kind of anti-trump vote, if it exist, will materialize. robin? >> all right, rick. we're going to our correspondents on the ground tracking nikki haley and ron desantis as they attempt to gain ground on donald trump. eva pilgrim has the latest. good morning, eva. >> reporter: good morning. we are at nikki haley headquarters. they're setting up for tonight. haley is confident she'll have a strong showing in iowa. we've been on the campaign trail with her all weekend. the weather has been a real hurdle. we saw semis in ditches on icy roads across the state. while she did have a cancel a few events, haley determined to make her final call of the caucus appearing at the majority of events reminding people in a head to head with president biden, current polls show she is the only candidate that beats him by a wide margin. >> you said you're going to have a strong showing in iowa. what does that mean? >> we won't know until we see what the number looks like. we want it

one vote in johnson county. >> it's so fascinating about this if you look a long, long time ago, onerump had a lot more seeming political vulnerability. what a difference a year makes. >> they definitely were. it's easy to forget this, but call this up. this is a line graph of the support for the candidates going back to the start of 2023. you remember at the start of '23, republicans had that bad midterm. the trump-aligned candidates cost them key races. ron desantis in some cases within ten points of trump nationally. that's why all these candidates emerged. they thought republicans were moving on. here is where it die verged. trump's line went up, desantis's went down. do you know what happened that week? that week, first week of march 2023, trump was indicted for the first time in new york on the stormy daniels' matter. it brought a rally around trump. >> maybe that's why we see him in courtrooms as much as the campaign trail. it's working for him. kristen, let's talk about this race. let's talk about desantis and haley, both saying they got tickets out of iowa. haley saying it's

how about johnson county? this is the most democratic county in the state.n't have a lot of college degrees, where you have lower incomes, she's been struggling in the polls. that is what cost marco rubio a chance to win the caucuses in 2016. let's go near the missouri border here. look at this. marco rubio didn't even register here in 2016. it was ben carson in all of these counties. these small, rural counties, there's a lot of them in southern iowa. rubio got buried there in 2016. if nikki haley is going to have a surprising good night, she needs to show signs of strength in places like southern iowa here. that would get her to second and would show she's expanding on the base we're seeing in polls. >> boy, those maps show it so clearly. of course, steve, when you go to the general election, it's even more dramatic. those trump maga supporters are in rural america. nbc's steve kornacki, thank you so much. it's going to be a fascinaing night. let's go to des moines to ali vitali. you talked to nikki haley over the weekend. what did she tell you? >> reporte

going to make a difference, it will be in rural districts in webster, dallas, polk, lynn, johnson and scott countygoing high here, that looks good for her in second place. >> and some of the mid sized counties, too. let's see what ron desantis needs. they hope desantis camp hopes they get about 30%. if that's going to happen. they will do well here, but they got to shine up top. the thing about ron desantis. he outworked everybody. he showed up in all the counties. he went back two or three times. the one thing he has only been known for he has had his family out with him most of the time, too. lastly talk about vivek ramaswamy. this is why in my humble opinion donald trump went after him a couple days ago. coming out very much like with very similar to the approach of donald trump. is he trying to get the maga vote when he realized trump lost about 4 points in the final poll in the des moines register he said i think vivek is taking it. that's why he came out and said vivek is a fake. if vivek is going to come on later and if he is going to surprise people like he promised this is the area is he

johnson. governor desantis traveling to all 99 counties. is this a make or break evening given how well he does? >> reporter: it is. the desantis campaign thinks they have a major advantage when it comes to the ground game. especially getting people to these caucus locations in sub zero temperatures. desantis himself has been in 99 locations across the state. staffers tell us they've actually identified precinct captains with trucks, suvs, and go four-wheel drive. they're bringing shovels and ice melt. they're going to dig people out. literally transport known supporters to these caucus locations and that includes seniors from retirement homes. desantis told me today, he likes being the underdog. he knows he needs a strong finish in iowa to move forward in this race. >> i can't believe we're here already but we are. thank you. >>> before we move on, a quick check on the numbers that put this into perspective. the polling on the eve of these iowa caucuses. let's get right to rick over at the big board. you're back at the big board. hard to b

the alameda county da's office says lawrence johnson was convicted on multiple felony charges, including pimping and human trafficking of a minor johnson has filed a notice to appeal. it's been almost 2 weeks since the door plug blew out of him at an alaska airlines flight that departed from portland kron four's ellis sogomonian reports on the lawsuit filed by passengers. >> sincerely apologize everyone on board the flight for what you experience. that was alaska airlines ceo ben money coach ian up reproduce video sent out to customers. >> about 2 weeks after one of their flights out of portland had door blown off for passengers like susanna anderson, who is now part of a class action lawsuit against boeing in alaska. it was a near death experience. >> once the explosion happened along with the wind along with the smoke, along with the chaos and the debris in the air and screaming people and watching the fight and struggling to get the door closed in the cockpit and it's getting that struggling to get into their own seat. i decided this what it is, you know, what i would need to. just co

counties. listen, you put him up on the screen, here we are talking about webster, dallas, polk, johnson, scotten you have story county, and nikki haley was supposed to do really well, and you see donald trump actually did really well. i'm not sure. in webster county was up 66%. nikki haley did not do very well there. so you say she's going to go into the granite state and do really well with the higher education and the higher income people. maybe not. steve hilton? >> there was a really fascinating story on the front page of "the new york times." you can tell they are worried when they put it on the front page, about the higher educated voters moving back to donald trump. these were the voters that, in their analysis, going back three years, they look at everyone's poles for the last three years. the voters that drifted away from donald trump after january 6 that everything we seen this then, now coming back to him. not just in iowa but across the country. it's a really big phenomenon. >> trace: erin, a bit literally 30 seconds left. msnbc couldn't even find something to be the daylights out

the alameda county district attorney's office says that lawrence johnson was convicted on multiple. > charges, including pimping and human trafficking of a minor. he has filed a notice to appeal his conviction. meantime, district attorney pam price is working to continue increasing awareness about human trafficking today, da price. another alameda county officials are going to give a press conference on the link between guns and human trafficking. that news conference is set for 11 o'clock this morning in oakland. >> well, a group of mainly jewish demonstrators, hung signs from the top of quite how are in support of gaza as they protested and called for a cease-fire yesterday, they called out local leaders, including senator alex padilla and representative nancy pelosi. the group also says it's against the u.s. sending military aid to israel, saying that money would be better spent going towards affordable health care and housing here in san francisco. well, california has released new guidelines when it comes to isolating. if you have covid-19, the state department of public health s