james bullard of the fed.ust and they are talking about the liquidity, the redemptions, that were seen. this trust was up 8% last year. even with withdrawal requests, there is rent stability with the blackstone real estate trust. stay with us. this is bloomberg. lisa m.: a surprising move from opec-plus as the coalition mix and oil production cut of more than one million barrels a day. saudi arabia led the cartel by pledging itself only 500,000 barrels a date supply reduction. the white house is the cutbacks were ill advised. the chinese spy balloon that floated over the u.s. in february reportedly gathered intelligence from several military sites. according to nbc news the intelligence that was collected. the u.s. shot the balloon down in south carolina. the debris that was recovered is still being analyzed. life storage operates more than 1100 sales storage properties. sales storage real estate benefited during the pandemic because people wanted more space while working from home. demand and pricing power ha

what jim bullard said is going to be typical from central-bank officials.ush the price of oil up to $100 a barrel. we do know that citicorp is saying that they do not think it will stay that high. they think that less demand than expected in china and other issues are going to keep it from staying that high. lessons are being raised. it's a question that we all have to look at because the major concern is if they see inflation going up, then they are just going to have to hike rates. mind you, jim bullard is sticking with a 5.6% forecast for the peak rate in the funds if that is enough to get down inflation. so obviously he has not changed his mind at all. in fact, he is an ecb board member saying there are a lot of things that pushed the price. general trims -- trends when you take out food and energy, that is what matters most. another point to remember here, rising oil prices are a double-edged sword. they push up prices and that makes the inflation rate higher. on the other hand, it is a tax of sort. it takes money out of people's pockets, raises cost f

. >> points to what bullard was saying we're getting new remarks from jim bullard.'s get to steve liesman. >> jim bullard, st. louis fed president doing a call with reporters saying there's an 85% probability this financial stress you were talking about will continue to abate he says most of the probability in his forecast is on growth slowing somewhat and inflation declining. he thinks all of this can happen without too much trouble in the job market he said it's too soon to tell how much the effect of credit tightening, how big of an effect that will have on the economy. he does not feel credit conditions will tighten enough to send the economy into recession. he says, banks are not intermediating that much of the total finances also if there were a lending pullback, banks say lending remains robust that's interesting what you were talking about. obviously, the banks have issues having to pay more for deposits. if they're able to give loans at a higher rate, then all is well with their net interest margin but pisani is smarter about that than i am. >> do the banks

shery: jim bullard speaking exclusively with michael mckee. here is the first word news. u.s.ivity in march contracted with a gauge dropping to its lowest double since may 2020. the pmi decreased to 46.3, below the median estimate. the data suggests that rising interest rates may be weighing on business investment. the philippines is giving u.s. access as it seeks to improve defense of eastern coast. china has territorial disputes with the philippines and has described the plans as an attempt to contain beijing. taiwan has defended the president's men to meet with u.s. lawmakers. the house speaker is set to buy post a bipartisan meeting on wednesday, china has vowed to take resolute measures. sources tell bloomberg they believe the reaction may be more muted than it was when nancy pelosi visited taiwan. an indian court has suspended a prison sentence for an opposition leader as he appeals his conviction in a criminal defamation case. he was disqualified from parliament in march for making derogatory remarks. bob iger has called ron desantis antibusiness for his policies regard

. >>> later, jim bullard says recession fears are overblown. we're going to talk about his renewed call for more rate hikes later this hr.ou you're watching "squawk on the street," and this is cnbc. >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by baird. visit baird difference.com this thing, it's making me get an ice bath again. what do you mean? these straps are mind-blowing! they collect hundreds of data points like hrv and rem sleep, so you know all you need for recovery. and you are? i'm an investor...in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to... nasdaq 100 innovations like... wearable training optimization tech. uh, how long are you... i'm done. i'm okay. >> we're just at the beginning of building general intelligence, and a world where we have thes i screwed up. mhm. i got us t-mobile home internet. now cell phone users have priority over us. and your marriage survived that? you can almost feel the drag when people walk by with their phones. oh i can't hear you... you're froze-- ladies, please! you put it on airplane mode when you pas

louis fed president james bullard there. maria tadeo is at the european council.ng a press conference in secretary of state antony blinken. he is going to talk about ukraine. what is expected to say? maria: yes, francine, and we will get the meeting between the two top diplomats from the u.s. and the european union. ukraine is always top of the agenda but this is coming off the back of the opec decision and it is related to russia because he talked about in the show. if we see oil prices go up, there's implications for brent will also russian oil. right now there are two caps that are enacted by the european union, one is russian gas in the other russian oil set at $60 a barrel. if that goes beyond that, the european union will have a problem here and forcing that cap. this is really something that i expect will be potentially problematic but top of the agenda too. francine: looking forward to that press conference. thank you maria tadeo. that is it for the european market open. surveillance early edition is up next. we will have a full round up of the bank story

bullard and bostic saying higher for longer. futures pointing lower right .3%. when it comes to inflation in the u.k., we are still in the double digit count. we are not comparable to the euro zone a little over 6%, the u.s. by percent because a u.k. inflation is above 10% and that sustains and is persisting. the boe and implications for that hike and expectations come may. the ftse 100 currently down .2% dropping 18 points. we will check in on sterling and gilts in the next few seconds. german tax down .2%. in spain losses of nine point down .1%. yesterday we heard from fed speakers and bostic wants to see it 5% held for longer. james bullard saying he would like to see potentially the terminal rate get to 5.75 in the u.s. as they continue to push the agenda to get inflation back down to the 2% target. let's look at cross asset with a focus on the pound given the surprise beat on inflation for the month of march. double digits and the pound getting a pop up .3% versus the u.s. dollar. 1.24 on the pound gaining .2% as markets increase their bet on rate hikes fro

keep your eye on bonds as well bullard is coming up in about 12 minutes.ow, ten-year, still south of 3.30%, a level it's defended a few times this year. at adp, we understand business today looks nothing like it did yesterday. while it's more unpredictable, its possibilities are endless. from paying your people from anywhere to supporting your talent everywhere, we use data driven insights to design hr solutions and services to help businesses of all size work smarter today. so, they can have more success tomorrow. ♪ one thing leads to another ♪ (seth) not to brag, but i just switched to verizon. (cecily) wow! (seth) and i got to choose the phone i wanted. for free. (cecily) not that you're bragging. (vo) switch and choose the 5g phone you really want, on us. like the incredible iphone 14. (cecily) on the network worth bragging about. (vo) verizon (seth) not to brag, but i just switched to verizon. (cecily) wow! (seth) and i got to choose the phone i wanted. for free. (cecily) not that you're bragging. (vo) switch and choose the 5g phone you really want, o

. >> when you alluded to it, whether it is the fed chair himself, prez, bullard, with the ideas of these ools to deal with everything. we can fight inflation, have enough tools in the box. not necessarily systemic in the broader sense but we could just deal with all of it. do you believe that or not? >> they need to project confidence. the market -- >> i think there is a way that if you look at the back end of the bar market. actually i think the market is giving the fed a bit of credibility. alternately, inflation is under control with a little bit of a risk premium that they need to avail themselves of the lower rate of the end distribution. >> you do not elieve that cuts are coming in calendar year 2023? >> the house view, the goldman sachs view is there no cuts in the second half this year. what is interesting is how the market has reacted. i think tech has been the very big in a fishery. the best companies in the worl , like the cash flow. it is just almost programmatically when you have the big move lower in rate and your rates are 1% because of the market. i think nasdaq, they ver

here's bullard yesterday. watch. >> i think that the macro policy response has been swift and appropriate. california based silicon valley bank, svb suffering a rapid run on deposits and closed by the fdic. these events have led to volatile trading in bank equities and increases in measures of financial stress. maria: yeah, i mean, jc we know all of that. jajamie dimon said in his annual letter to shareholders, quote, the current crisis is not over yet and even when it is behind us there will be repercussions from it for years to come. jc, was do you make of all of this? >> we've been doing this for a long time. this is a crisis, we certainly want the crisis to continue as investors because stocks keep going up. this is the most profitable crisis i've ever seen. we've been in a raging bull market for nine, 10 months now, in bull markets socks go up. more and -- stocks go up. more and more go higher. more countries around the world break out to new all-time highs. that's exactly what we've seen. we look at the

we did hear from jim bullard who was reasonably sanguine. he did say at one point he anticipated oil prices would rise. we heard from president biden in the last hour saying it is not as bad as you think it is going to be. what are your thoughts in terms of the oil price and impact it will have on inflation and what it means for central banks? >> let's start with what all economists do, and i do rather badly, make assumptions. the take away here is that at $100 per barrel, technically it should not worry us for the first half, because it will still be disinflationary in and of itself. it only turns mildly inflationary in the second half of the year. there are much bigger worries about oil prices because it informs expectations and business pricing. it also has an impact on household consumption. it is inflationary and deflationary in terms of which part of the elephant we are looking at when we look at oil prices. nevertheless, the immediate effect is immediate cost shop because of expectations built in. it is inconvenient timing because jus

even governor bullard was on today. from the fed. saying that some of the lower rates, that is helping temper the issues from the banking crisis. i think maybe we have leaned too far to the other side, but let's see. i think jobs will be key. if that is a surprise that is a problem. alix: justina, what is the market in europe going to take in the signal. it is closed on friday. but are they close to the u.s. or diverging? justina: the european market has always been more attuned to the ups and downs of the economic cycle. i think going into tomorrow people definitely don't want a number that is too hot, which would completely rewrite the narrative around rate cuts coming up in the u.s. at the same time, if it is too weak there could be a reaction with equities kind of not really reacting in the way that you may have expected to all this economic data so far. guy: where could the surprise come from? i want to look at the totality of the data we are going to get. not just payrolls. we have all of this banking data that will tell us wha

fed president jim bullard reacted. >> this was a surprise, the opec decision. whether it will have a lasting impact will have a question. some might feed into inflation and make it more difficult. jon: another wildcard. let's talk about the energy market. let's start with how this came together in the first place and what we learned over the last 24 hours. julie: on sunday opec-plus did a surprise cut. we had heard they were going to keep output the same but they cut by one million barrels a day or so they say they are going to. markets were taken by surprise because one million barrels a day is going to impact crude markets. analysts are analyzing will this only impact second half of the year there was really going to be this the supply crunch because china demand was going to be back or will we see that sooner in the summer driving session when we were expecting much of a demand or supply crunch but now there might be because summer driving season is peak demand for the u.s. kriti: it is putting a hedge for the's to build the spr. -- the biden's administratio

the market action today, a day after mester suggested above 5% and stayed there for a long time and bullard today, financial stress readings are relatively low, the market is not buying anything that the fed is selling. if you look at fed funds futures january of '24, it's 0.1%, 100 basis points below where the fed may be this smacks, to me, of, yeah, whatever you are not going to be raising. you may not even be able to raise in may, and if you do then, you are done t. >> i think that's right, and i think the, yeah, whatever the, is really critical as a portfolio manager, when i think about -- so right now, for example, i have three potential new buys on my watch list. and when i'm thinking about how do i make the decision to pull the trigger, i'm totally, yeah, whatever, on the fed and what i actually care about are earnings next week because i think with the fed it's kind of done for now maybe we get 25 basis points maybe we don't i think everyone is increasingly convinced, at least i hope they are, they're not going to turn tail, pivot and start cutting anytime soon i think that's an unr

jim bullard, also urging more fed rate hikes.the funds rate up to that 5.5% to 5.6% range. he doesn't see a recession ahead. he thinks wall street has got it wrong, very engaged in the idea that there's going to be a recession in six months or something and that is not the way that you should read an expansion like this. jobs are still growing and wages are still rising. inflation is still high. when it comes to the banks, again, don't worry. the st. louis fed said, if people are bracing for some kind of banking turmoil, that index would spike up to 4% or 5%. right now it is at 0%. he takes great reassurance in that. if there is no doubt it out that a rate hike is coming, certainly they will be pushing for it. may be that is more and more the consensus. haidi: that was kathleen hays. the other story that's really preoccupying investors is the netflix effect, the disappointment when it comes to the numbers and the big drop in the initial reaction. we have come off those lows. some of these korean content production names, down by

and we actually think that the fed is absolutely done no matter what bullard has to say. i don't care, they're cone. we think they're done. we're making our bets on the fact they're done. we think the 10-year's going to crash down below 3%, and where we're plague it is with our etfs like tmf and with the gold side, nugget, nugt. liz: tmf, that is a very bullish etf, 3x on 20 the-year treasury yield here. you can see what it's done over the past couple months, and when did you go long this, dutch? >> about two weeks ago. liz: yeah. two weeks ago. [laughter] so, you know, as we watch all of this this, i'm very fascinated to hear what scott thinks about that. but also about the gold trade, because you've got bouillon climbing to very close to record highs. now, just yesterday, scott, we had mike novogratz on. he, of course, is the big bitcoin bull, but he's also gone very bullish on gold, he is buying pooches. he just echoed what dutch had to say where he basically said -- he made a case for gold the year saying that the fed likely, we're cone, if fed meeting in may may be t

this as jim bullard, federal reserve says the fact we got to get inflation down.inue to battle that, maybe even keep raising rates in the process. we don't know how many, exactly how high. that will continue. that is environment where you see those high prices sticking around for maybe a while. david wagner with us, capital advisors, the portfolio manager. david, do you agree with walmart's assessment, we're going to have to deal with this, it will has a while? >> yeah, i mean definitely feels like public enemy number one right now is inflation. you had the ceo of walmart come out to say that again yesterday. if you look at grocery segment of their business, this business already has very paltry margins, you know what? that is where inflation is really staying elevated and very sticky. last night come out on monthly numbers say the exact same thing. they're getting resiliency on general merchandise side. seeing less, more deflation there but, neil, the kicker here is the sticksky aspect of wage inflation. if you just look at the u.s., the average hourly wages has

bullard last week pointed out that banks represent only 20% of intermediation in the economy, and so point was that he did not see the banking credit crunch creating a rippel and wave in the broader economy when it came through a credit crunch. the other aspect of it is they're looking down the pike today or down the throat this week of a core cpi number that if consensus right is going to be still going up. headline coming down, but the expectation is for the inflation, the core inflation to rise by a tenths and increase h year over year wait and what i've heard them say so far, and i ain't saying it's right. what i've heard them say so far is that the inflation problem remains the bigger concern and they will factor in the credit crunch problem when they see the whites of the eyes of a credit crunch >> let me turn to peter who i think of as one of the biggest hawks on inflation, and that's why i find your point of view so interesting here to take more seriously the economic dynamics you're describing. when steve says core inflation will tick up one-tenth, what do you say in respons

this bullard on 1st hero said, yeah. where do i agree was in for are skin war. whoop, said color, her tone. i live local dirty. so local, we do, if you can some museums in private collections were reluctant to loan items, worried that they'd be seized by supporters of restitution. but sango are assured them that this wouldn't happen. ah, however, african nations did have to soften their demands in order to coexist in the world of cultural exchanges, exhibiting and circulating items. yes, maybe. but returning them, i don't think so. ah however, as more countries gained independence, 19 sixty's more voices joined. the call to restitution and son were quite right. ah, the pan african cultural festival took place in algiers. in 1969, it attracted hundreds of thousands of visitors and published its own manifesto. this saved quote, we must recuperate, including through international institutions, the works of art and archives seized by the colonial powers. we must stop, it went on the drain of cultural assets, leaving our cont

but almost a bullard, so a bad them good. i'm doing them. i'm just come with them. i'm just come shift your budget legit you actual get on the luggage to say you buy a car you still like way in yesterday with him. i need ashley, sorta most of them asking, leaving behind the. yeah, i watch, it was delivered to a almost reminded danny, rashly balance it gone. but then you got 3 of 7 to sale through all the more of the bills back when the 80 going is the bridge. every else i can actually come to corporation duties. did you call back and i left over the ledge so she was feeling my legit. a good idea. yeah. get on the luggage, niggas buck with us bill. that part of the mr. version bus number for the month. could you only deal with it? it a lot of what finished it about. it was about it, but i see all the been up with a girl. i stuff just of i in calon they, i privately, i believe gord union does really believe those will pretty jesus couple dublin store. he, him, was this with duncan having him over, you mean like, you know, with the vision. yeah. those are really still

you have bullard saying two more, given inflation. the fed, in terms of bond markets, the like, it is so quiet. there's not much to talk about. we were talking to wilfred wee from portfolio, they are saying, we will take it. as of bond and credit investor it has been tough. , take a look at markets mostly lower across equities, hang seng, that downturn seems to be extending, down 1%. it is been driving the tech space. we talk about the csi 300. where within 1% away from the 2023 highs. it seems that even the h-share rally is taking a pause button. fx is mixed across the board. you have indonesia closed this morning. bonds are ticking higher. not much to talk about. rishaad: looking in the bond picture, the money has been pouring into the treasury market as well. bank of america saying investor confidence at the moment is all about bonds and the allocation we have had, to equities relative to bonds, the lowest level, since the bloomberg financial crisis. when you have juice in the bond market and it is guaranteed, i guess in many ways,

james bullard talking about how he is still a hawk and wants were rate hikes. the two-year yield is down two points. it feels like and unpacking from the bottoms up. what's already priced into some of these equity names? dani: what's priced in when it comes to china. we had surprised positive figures. the surprise indexes higher than it has been in years. but breaking down the number you don't get a clear picture of the breadth of recovery in china. wet leg the numbers was the consumer, retail sales. retail sales gained 10 point 6% annually. we have seen fixed income remain at 5.1%, but this got us excited because it's clear that the consumer is what is leading the recovery in china. part of the question is how sustainable is that? alix: did we already know that and will it be an e shaped recovery or something different? morgan stanley's chief economist on china weighed in earlier. >> if china can maintain that growth it can cross the middle income track becoming high and by next year. if you want more quality growth they still need a certain growth level and a

and here is a story, why is this humble road bullard becoming a symbol of the simmering anger over traffic

and here is a story, why is this humble road bullard becoming a symbol of the simmering anger over trafficontrol measures in britain's cities? —— vladimir kara—murza. we will have more on all of those stories here in a moment. let's round up to the sports news. thank you, good afternoon. we start with football and the premier league where liverpool can keep their hopes of playing european football next season alive, with a win at leeds this evening. it won't be easy though forjurgen klopp�*s side against a leeds team fighting for premier league survival — just two points above the drop zone. we have nothing to lose, really, and we are in a position that we don't want to be in the table. that means we have to act a little bit like this, we have to try new things, we have to fight for things, that's how it is. the things we have tried so far this season didn't work out properly, especially not consistently, and that's what we have to do. all the things are on the table, everything is clear, our home record isn't as bad as the away record but we play away. anyway, i'm looking forward to the g

dani: james bullard on the challenges of the volatile oil market.ot shaping his view too much but says it makes things more difficult. president biden is reacting to the opec-plus announcement but he downplayed the impact, telling reporters it is not as bad as you think. what does the market think? let's bring in bloomberg's oil reporter. we got that 6% gain yesterday, what is the market's view of this? >> it is day two since the opec-plus announcement came out. it is clear that announcement has inflamed the markets. oil was looking at a global economic slowdown and concerns around that, and they were looking at stronger demand from a recovering china. a lot of analysts are talking about $100 barrels again. things have shifted, and before the announcement, people were talking expectations for a tight supply situation in the second half of the year. this opec-plus cut should exacerbate that situation significantly. the oil market is faced with a couple of questions to answer. the market was looking at a possible demand slowdown from a slowdown in the

are we back to a bullard 7% in the last four minutes? jonathan: no.ooking at 355,000 jobs per month. michael: here's the interesting thing that happened, the household survey, the labor force group room in the fed is exciting more into the labor force and maybe that is bringing down the jolts and jobs numbers and, of those into the labor force, more people got jobs, 577,000, while unemployment fell for -- fell by 90,000. it was a did -- it was a big dichotomy between the surveys for a couple months and it looks like household is now catching up. jonathan: we have not had a downside to price on payrolls report in 12 months. randall kroszner , thank you. star house standing by, senior economist of wells fargo. what stands out for you? sarah: i think overall there's a lot for the fed to like in here and that we are seeing signs of the labor market cooling down but in an orderly way and we are seeing balance creep into the jobs market so whether we are looking at demand indicators we have gotten over the course of the week but also i think one encouraging

his james bullard right? -- is james bullet right?t the recession to start in the third quarter this year. think it will be relatively mild, but the recent slowdown in the economic data support our view. jon: a recession call but in terms of rate strategy, do you think we are done on the rate hiking front? guest: we don't expect cuts to start until march of next year and in that aspect we are quite differentiated from what markets are pricing. kriti: 100 basis points worth of cuts by the end of the year. a cut soon as july. why july? why is that the concern? guest: the way in which that would play out is the financial stress might get a lot worse. it is not our base case, but if that were to happen and if the resulting economic slowdown potentially because of credit tightening were a lot worse than what we have in our forecast, then i think that may be a case for the fed to cut relatively soon. if you look at their playbook in 1987 and 1998 in response, it was to quickly and aggressively. jon: beyond watching the banking terminal, are

james bullard said these ideas of recession are a little bit overdone and he wants to see the discussionround more hikes. what is your interpretation of fed speak now? >> i think the market is continuing to not get that message. i've been saying that consistently and i think part of the issue is that all of the hype in recent memory over the last 30 years took place in an environment that was essentially disinflationary. we had low inflation. it was a very different environment than now. the last 30 years, the pauses by the fed have extended from about six months-14 months. you are still seeing large parts of the market expecting a rate cut i the end of this year. i think they will be disappointed as far as investors. while you have some dovish members of the fed, none of them are really talking about a rate cut in 2023. if we were to have a rate cut, it would mean we had a hard landing. that's not good for stocks. ed: this is bloomberg technology so let's talk about the technology sector. if you expect this rate in inflation regime to persist, where do you want to position yourself with

alix: you spoke to jim bullard but particularly with the inflationary scenario and oil prices. mike: he has been one of the more hawkish members of the committee and he suggested that rates need to go 5.6 percent because inflation will be sticky but i asked him this morning about the oil price shock and he is not as concerned about that as you might think. >> this was a surprise that opec -- decision and whether it will have help lasting impact -- some of that my feet into inflation and will make things were difficult -- maybe feed into inflation and that will make things difficult. mike: the question will become does that feed through into other areas of the economy? when we talking -- talk about the manufacturing area, energy plays a big role and will that feed into sukhumi -- consumer psychology because that -- because does that mean gasoline prices will go up or maybe what happens, you will see prices adjust back down as the market considers multiply and demand. alix: thank you very much and guy pointing out the yields are now down on the highest some they work up earlier o

you had bullard talking about how he sees more rate hikes and the bond market did not move. it is really the bottom up. you can still be profitable but sentiment is bad. at some point is there going to be capitulation where you have to chase it because your clients are like, hey, why am i losing on the s&p? dani: clients asking, hey morgan stanley, why are you so negative when equities are doing fine? the nasdaq continues to trade at year-to-date highs. it is the banking story that might shake things up and make us question should we be buying these individual shares and at the overall index? it has been the tale of two banks. bank of america topped fixed income trading. goldman failed to capitalize. here are the two ceos this morning. >> the flows and investments and the destruction of the past quarter, deposits perform well. >> it is impossible to predict the stress and we will not always execute perfectly but our risk management culture and robust capital positions have allowed us to navigate a complex environment while continuing to support clients. dani: these bring us

time, james bullard discussing the outlook for the u.s. economy in arizona.thing will dominate the trade today, it is that economic outlook for the u.s. is it the recession playbook you need to not only dust off, but put into your full trade now. that has resulted in a run to havens, and buying of bonds, you see in the third column of the gmm, nearly everything is gaining as yields sink lower. when it comes to fx, not the g10, but the dollar is strengthening as some of the more risky currencies, aussie and kiwi dollar fall. many equity markets will be closed tomorrow say for dubai, uae and turkey. so how much risk do you really want to take going into this long weekend? bloomberg markets is up next. ♪ and effortlessly responds to both of you. our smart sleepers get 28 minutes more restful sleep per night. proven quality sleep. only from sleep number. so, am i still on track to reach my goals? the plan we created can withstand uncertainty. lately everybody has opinions about the economy, but i count on personal financial advice. my ameriprise advisor understan

we had hawkish comments earlier this week from bullard and markets ignored that it has been about theeakness in the data with the ism services significantly weaker than expected. the adp weaker than expected jolts numbers is weaker than expected all of that has built the narrative around the fact that recession indicators are flashing warning signs more clearly than earlier this year that has led the market to re-price central bank expectation. it is u.s. led and the u.s. is certainly diving fixed income at the moment it is less about fed speak and more the data is telling us. >> imogen, you are head of uk rate strategy, i want to turn to uk and the gilt market how do you feel the mpc communication has evolved? there is justification for them beginning to sound lightly less hawkish. some saying they are sounding dovish because of the weaker wage data do you think we are done with rate hikes in the uk >> it is actually our base case we are done with rate hikes this year we got bank rate up think thatm peak the bank of england shifted the need from further hikes and size of the hikes it

that's part of the game here and you have to make the call on this i asked bullard in a call with reportersid what do you need to see? he said i'm going to use forward data, i'm going to use current data i'm not going to rely on one thing. he was pretty definitive the banking situation is going to go away and it's not going to keep them from hiking rates. >> they're begging us to go, steve. we have three hours of stuff and only an hour to say it in. >> we usually say four hours of stuff in three hours >> we'll be back with steve in a little bit we want to bring in the lead economist for zip recruiter and rand guyad rand, you have seen interesting data that tells you that there is some slack returning to the labor market what are you seeing in your own numbers? >>> all indications that the job market is slowing down job seekers are also staying put. i think it's looking like another goldie locks report, just like the one we saw last month. job openings are likely going to show up maybe at a lower rate than what we saw in february but i don't see a lot of signs of inflationary pressure coming

louis fed chief james bullard and the lawmakers will continue the meeting with tech leaders to discusss looking to close out the short trading week we are gearing up for earnings season to shift into high gear next week with the focus on the banks on friday. jpmorgan chase and citi and wells fargo reporting. let's dive into it with amy wu silverman. amy, great to see you. >> great to see you. >> amy, i want to get your take on the trading day we are seeing right now. the nasdaq and s&p to pepotenti breaking futures >> this is something we have spoken with investors to which is getting to an inflection point. we had a flip where all of 2022 losers became the winners and tech was the safe haven. the question is as we get into earnings as we digest new information is the inflection point happened and the trade reverse to some degree which is the narrative playing out. >> as i mentioned, we are entering earnings season how do you prepare for options after the season a lot of thought of the earnings decliner here. >> earnings are critical, especially in the first few weeks. that is when we

as you hear from williams and bullard laugst week, the markets moving slow. we have to re-price the hike from may and may price more after that i think that keeps the market under pressure. >> that may is key you see it is range bound for the last 11 months 3,800 to 4,200 we hatd a lot of disruption. what is priced in and what is not priced i is the bank crisis priced in >> i think neither was priced in the banking crisis came and went it looks like it never happened. it may happen again if rates go up further secondly, rates are not fully reflected more rate hikes. it is more thinking may will be the last hike and we see what happens after that this is a lot of uncertainty here why we're in the range and we cheakeep jumping up and down >> you are looking at the prices now it may be july with the rate hike deadline. you see the negotiations as an opportunity. >> an opportunity to reengage. the history tells us that it will not be the default. secondly, if you get this, it causes volatility. in the end, they get together and resolve. that is the opportunity to

if you listen to bullard and loretta mester, they're expecting a 75 basis point cut by the end of the year. where are the opportunities? stephen: the messaging out of the fed, a 75 basis point cut would suggest the u.s. is well into recession in the second half of the year, which at the moment seems unlikely, so from that perspective, it is a question of going back to the beginning and looking at the fundamentals and those areas of growth and value. the u.s. market is one of the more expensive in terms of global markets that we think the opportunities are better placed elsewhere. yvonne: such as where, stephen? stephen: we have been looking at emerging market bonds. we thank the premiums those are trading at relative to the u.s. equivalent are attractive. there has obviously been a fairly significant reduction in risk expectations in terms of emerging markets and we think you are getting paid now to take that risk that is the first time that is happened in a while. on the equity side, it is emerging-market focused and we think there is room to go as far as the chinese market is concer

jim bullard talking about inflation going to be sticky. i want to go back to the credit crunch. businesses have been the hirers. if they get hit hard, what is the potential for the job market hit? diane: this is an area we have been studying like crazy. not only small but younger businesses, those with less than 250 employees, more than four or five job openings are being dominated with those employers. and some have been cutting job openings. they have been the resiliency of the u.s. economy in recent months and hitting the backbone of that, given the credit tightening we are expecting, that does undermine the momentum in the labor market. that is why we see it happening over the summer and many small employers are out there and are holding onto workers as long as they can. but that is only sustainable in a low interest rate environment. it is harder when interest rates flip. guy: thank you for sharing your time, the kpmg chief economist, diane. accelerating pv presence, details from the volkswagen north american ceo. this is bloomberg. ♪ what does it mean to be ever better? it

it is interesting some guys like bullard who is not a voting member is talking about it, and that is what fed speak is. they have been behind the curve and have had to chase the rate hikes on the market has been ahead of them but i think we are almost there and i do not see any major surprises happened this year in terms of fed policy. a lot is priced in. inflation being sticky is priced in and financial conditions tightening is priced in and i do not think the fed will come with a major surprise this year for the rest of the year. haslinda: how do you play the markets and what dubai? quality overgrowth? what assumptions are you making about earnings going forward? it has been mixed. >> earnings will be important this year. again, the market has been pricing in a relatively bearish view on the earnings cycle, so you are seeing expectations of high single digits and double digit earnings declines in the u.s., but again, i think the recent spate of earnings was very mixed in some large banks came up with very good, decent earnings, and i think that people forget that inflation is a boo

bullard himself saying it has to go to 5.625%.ring with what we are seeing in terms of rate cuts being price, but maybe now, the data gives a little bit more traction to that pricing. francine: when you look at the new zealand central bank and the fact that it raise rates 50 basis points unexpectedly, whether that has read across for the region and monetary policy setting around the world? >> i think what the rmb's he did today was -- we have seen the biggest inflation in decades and that is not going to go away anytime soon. yes, the markets are pricing in a very dovish fed and i think the markets are right insofar as they see and end to the fed's rate tightening cycle. yes, that is evident from the cooling economy and losing momentum. what is unfathomable is the markets pricing to-three rate cuts by the end of the year from the fed. they are completely barking up the wrong tree there. what is different about the cycle is we have inflation that is alive and kicking. it is not like the cycle of 2018 or 2019 when the fed came out t

others like jim bullard have said, yes they can see the potential credit tightening, but they see an that has high inflation, strong labor market, and they don't sound ready to pause. haidi: our global economics and policy editor, kathleen hays. morgan stanley ceo dismissed fears about the u.s. banking sector, even after the lender reported a 20% slide in net profits in first quarter. >> we are not a banking crisis -- in a banking crisis but we may have a crisis among some banks. i believe strong regulatory intervention on both sides of the atlanticled to the -- atlantic led to the cauterization of the damage. it's not remotely comparable to 2008. haidi: our next guest says u.s. bank earnings for the first quarter are likely to be as good as it gets for 2023. whalen global advisors, richard christopher whalen here with us. we saw the big lenders sailing through the quarter, despite this being a quarter where we saw the collapse of three smaller lenders, coordinated banking rescues. is the crisis over? or is this the fact that we are seeing a lot of the concerns to do with smaller len

alix: that was james bullard speaking exclusively on bloomberg television earlier today.hlight of what opec did, does that make the feds easier -- fed's job easier or harder? that leads us to the question of the day, $100 oil? here to help us answer, ron temple. is that the path to least resistance, $100? >> i would be concerned about rising oil prices for some period of time. we look at the rising demand from china with the reopening, that is an important factor that has been troubling me. i look at the supplies. historically whenever oil prices would rise, higher prices would be the solution to high prices. higher prices would signal to e&p companies they should invest more in capex and expiration. that has not happened this time. i think the trajectory is higher for oil in my mind. whether we get to $100 by year in some other point, that is a question mark to me. guy: higher oil, does that imply higher rates or lower rates when it comes to the fed, ecb, etc.? ron: it is very complex. if we assume the banking system issues in the u.s. calm down as they appear to be doin

doing >> it's definitely going to be something they weigh, sara, but i'm taken by something that bullard told reporters last week in one of the get-togethers he does from time to time he noted that banks only account for 20% of intermediation in the economy and the regional and midsize banks, some fraction of that his point of view is that he does not expect a massive economic effect from credit contraction at the banks maybe the private sector does this, too, but you would expect, sara, consumers to be saying they're having trouble or having more difficulty finding credit now because what we've seen for several months, even before silicon valley bank came along, sara, was that banks were tightening credit. we're all looking to this may report on the senior loan officer survey that's going to tell us how much more they tightened since silicon valley bank. >> it's going to be very juicy thank you, steve steve liesman, appreciate it. >>> joining us to discuss pimco north american economist tiffany wildening. how do you think the fed is going to take all the data and news we've gotten so fa

topping out or leveling off and the federal reserve depending on who you listen to whether it's jim bullard looking at ending this rate hike they have been on what seems like forever now so as long as these reports come in as you mentioned right along the lines of expectations or in some cases with wage growth a little better than expectation, i think you have a reality going forward where the fed steps out of the way and the market can take over here and go up. neil: you know, there's a flip to that though, scott, and maybe i gary, given the inherent job strength, the fed has wiggle room if it wanted to go ahead and raise rates again in may. what do you think? >> i think the fed is watching these job numbers and they continue to be strong. i think the fed has got another quarter point in it, but neil, the 10-year yield is down to 3.4 %, so i think they got room to actually cut. my biggest worry and why i'm weary is what the markets are doing. the three-month treasury bill is at 5%. the inversion is like the worst i've seen pretty much in history , and very often, worry, and i just have to

the-5.5, which is more where we're hearing some of the most recent fomc member commentary, jimmy bullard, neel kashkari, all pushing for a little bit higher. so we may be in that camp. and by the way, the cta just reported that there's a huge bet, right, a 1.29 million contract bet that the ped is going to continue to -- the fed is going to continue to raise rates into june and possibly july, and that means if that's true, that that's e a bet that's going to pay off because treasury prices will decline. they're betting that that treasury prices will decline because yields will go up because the fed continues to raise. liz: we need to give that bet a name. is that the t-bill whale? what should we call that? [laughter] quite a whale of -- i. >> i put it in my note this morning. [laughter] liz: yes. and i wake up to that note every morning -- [laughter] because that's my life, john, kenny, great to' -- to see you. of john, no more agreeing with kenny polcari. can't have that on this show. >> love it. thank you. >> ceo. -- ceja. liz: the parent company of mow. -- moet has surpassed. [laughte

really happened if the f b, i say that the gun couldn't find without the trigger being pulled in, alec bullard and making the, the opposite arguments. right. but what the prosecutors will have to do is convince a jury if, if this child does is resurrected to get all i have to do was potentially convince a jury that it was alex baldwin who acted with criminal negligence on the sat and. and as we said, the boardman, as always, always denied that. interestingly, there has already been a civil supplement between baldwin, i'm the widower, off the cinema told her friend, widow says look as far as i can send, this is all a terrible, terrible mistake as part of that civil settlement. baldwin and the production company have agreed to make a documentary about the city talk for his career and also the widow is now an executive producer on ross the movie, which was expected to begin recompense production today thursday in the u. s. okay, thank you very much for time with that story in washington. thank you. wondering a bit more news from america now. police in north carolina is searching for a man accused

yet, bullard is saying recession is not what you put together if you look at the data. >> he's for moreabout that bank of america, consumers are still spending i looked through the bank of america credit card data credit card spending rose 6% from a year earlier. i look at some of the other data up 13% at jm morgan, 7% at city group and 17% at wells fargo maybe the debt is rising, but spending is still happening. >> speaking of spending. we've been monitoring the bank of america call because they have a good sense for that given their credit card portfolio. listen to what moynihan had to say about consumer spending. >> we saw the first part of the first quarter being a little bit softer and then we saw it kick back up in march in april, still early, it's probably a little lower than it was for the month of march, but it's a couple weeks in we have to be careful about that due to vacations and things like that it's -- over the course of last year the total spending year over year increases have slowed down it's a pr it's a precursor to the economy being slower and the consumers being mor

. -- people are reassessing where bullard is.arket resets away from the remedial effects of a banking crisis that may not come. jonathan: morgan stanley in the next hour. let's start with a euro-dollar, inflation looking sticky in the euro zone, 1.0935 on the euro. double digit cpi still above 10%. our latest reporting on the bank of japan, the full story available on bloomberg.com. "bank of japan officials are wary of curbing their stimulus in the next meeting. this according to people familiar with the matter." 144 -- 134.82. tom: it does not confirm again move. -- confirm a yen move. this is a good time to talk to liz ann saunders. jonathan: here is the quote on the federal reserve. \ " we believe parts of the market have grown to optimistic in pricing in rate cuts. any quick pivot to rate cuts would likely only occur in the face of more dire economic and labor market developments." tom: i think we have all got our memories here. they are just that -- memories, not the clear and present. liz and the clear and present for you i

michael: jim bullard wants to 6%, but most are in the 5.1% camp, which would be one more move.told then that is probably where they need to be. the fed has always raised the fed funds rate above the level of inflation, when we have had a situation where they try to bring inflation down, and they have just gotten even with it if you look at the pce numbers. one more move would make them more restrictive. at that point they would probably start thinking about a pause. jonathan: fed funds alone does not tell you about how tight things are because now it is fed funds plus banking stress. michael: it is something you have to add into the discussion, because the fed is looking at the cumulative effect of all of the rate increases they have done. companies do not decide to invest in a plant or software every day, so it takes time for all of those decisions to plan to the economy. sometime starting in the second half of this year, the feeling is we will see all of that hit, and if we see tightening credit conditions on top of that, it makes it more difficult to see strengthen the econo

jonathan: waller, bullard, master. [laughter] he is shaking his head from all of this.ou make of this before the choir period? >> your ability to do tongue twisters is phenomenal. jonathan: i was an mc, a dj back in the day. [laughter] i was not. >> looking at this and the set of giving the earnings -- and the set up the earnings, let us recall the last time secretary yellen spoke alongside the fed which was jay powell. we had an enormous amount of volatility. the fact that we are in all likelihood going to get two conflicting messages, a bunch of said speak hitting towards one and done which is our view, as opposed to the economy is now taking a second spot to political relations coming from the treasury secretary. there is a lot of confusion. something to one and done and then pause. some see the pause as bullish but others do not. i may include you in that. 23's's is likely to see a recession volatility spike before the inevitable mark again. carrie put numbers on that? >> if you look at it, the history of pauses tends to be on a 12 month basis quite positive. we exp

we were pretty good idea jim bullard is at the top.are the men behind the dots. tom: -- michael: they're both very talented and experienced economies. that stays the same. goolsby seems to be more dovish at the moment. charlie evans moved around with where he thought the data was. sometimes he was hawkish and sometimes he was more dovish. the question is what is goolsby does. view to 6.1% and the economy slows down into bc any need for the fed -- slows down and we see need for the fed to cut rates, how quickly does he jump on board? were talk about 25 basis points move in small increments. jonathan: gone of the day is 50 and 75 and a talking about potential for six. that was only a month ago. it is changed so quickly. inflation data five minutes away. mike mckee is going to break that down in just a moment. cpi around the corner. jace pricing of wells fargo joins us. equity futures just about positive. yields a little bit higher. ♪ i screwed up. mhm. i got us t-mobile home internet. now cell phone users have priority over us. and your