but greenspan would have nothing of it. there are some major differences too, though.time greenspan rolled out the 50 base point bazooka, he already hit us with five regular hikes. the fund was 7.45% when the cycle started. stood at 6% before the double rate hike that bay by early 21, the fed was already cutting rates. this time, even if powell hits us with the double rate hike in may, almost no one expects it to be the end we're hearing calls from multi50 basis point hikes. we started from zero and so far we have only got a single quarter point tightening unlike 20 years ago, we're coming off a pandemic that created all kind of bizarre economic distortions we have a horrific war between russia and ukraine that is causing rampant inflation in food and energy. that is totally beyond powell's control. the niche was still going to pass the ball. makes it incomprehensible unless you're a maybe of patrick ewing. what did the hike mean nothing good from the nasdaq's peak in march of 2000 to its bottom in october 2002, it lost 78% of its value more than 60% of that decline oc

a paper on understanding alan greenspan's calculus. the one word is measured.an a central bank afford to be measured as alan greenspan chose to lead with? seth: it is a great question, and good that you mentioned alan blinder. he's part of the reason i became a macro economist. i had him first semester, first year of graduate school. i think the answer in the short run is yes. in some sense, it is probably what they have to do. if you take a look at the fed right now, this adverse shock, even if we put aside the horrible toll, there's a clear adverse price shock to the developed economy. i can hear you. jonathan: we can still hear you. carry on. seth: your control room broken. jonathan: they just one to do chat, they were so fascinated with what you had to say. [laughter] carry on. seth: it is probably going to have an adverse effect on real growth in the united states. right now, the fed thinks it is growing faster than is sustainable, but they don't want to overdo it. knowing where that line is between doing enough to slow the economy and doing so much that y

essentially willing to go with this concept of neutral, willing to roll the dice inprobably, onl as alan greenspanery different from ben bernanke and janet yellen, very in touch with the way the political wind is blowing. i think eventually of the economy slows enough and in the labor market becomes a political issue the economy changes as well. >> brazil bank is signaling another 100 rate hike in their next meeting. in their economy growth has taken a hit. are there any lessons we should be taking from economies that have hiked faster than the central bank in the u.s. or the ecb? >> yes. precisely what you are hinting at. hiking fast certainly helps bring down inflation but the downside is that helps bring down growth as well. be careful. i think at the end of the day the reason i think the fed will raise rates less than the market expects is because the dual mandate that has balanced inflation and growth. and we'll try to do so by doing more tolerant with respect to inflation to not risk rolling over the economy. >> said chair powell was asked about balance sheet production a couple times that i

in the dark days of alan greenspan, he will talk for two hours and you had no idea what they were goingo be doing. we have an unprecedented level of disclosure of what jerome powell is thinking. i am awaiting him--i am waiting for him to put out a mood board about what he is thinking. he has waited and delayed on inflation, we are not sure he is going to end up. he has put himself in a corner and if he is behind the curve, people will be extremely concerned. there will by inflation sensitive assets, if he is ahead of the curve, we will have a position. it is a tricky position that they are in. >> the economy seems to be changing in form. you mentioned in your notes, the u.s. has fundamentally changed. >> if you look at the multiple factors, the great resignation that seems to be continuing and the nature of work in terms of hybrid or on-site. you have a bifurcation of what worked looks like. those who can work from home and those who cannot. the majority of our goods are made in china, we continue to have these massive supply disruptions. that is causing a lot of u.s. businesses to wond

get your greenspan hikes on. quick cross asset check for you. fx traders could get bored. they could get bored because of the lack of volatility. taking dollar-yen to 150. a bit of a vacillation this morning for brent. jp morgan says you are going to get demand destruction coming into this market. it goes to the heart of the issue. will the fed hikes 50 basis points and how quickly will they do qt? francine: it is really trying for investors to grapple with what the fallout will be from raw materials. we need to work through the second and third round. investors trying to figure out the ramifications for volatility. the yen snapped its prolonged drop against the dollar. japan's policy divergence could apply to the pboc. european equity futures steady for the moment but could change at any moment. mark: -- manus: some big calls out there. let's bring everybody together that is standing by. biden heads to poland. maria tadeo is in brussels. juliette saly is in singapore covering the latest on market moves. francine: we know the u.s. president joe biden is heading to warsaw t

the dots, get rid of this transparency the fed can't predict anything and go back to more of the greenspan approach, which will never happen if the economy was okay in the back half of the year, then i would go to 2% i would take it as step function they are not saying they are going to do that they are going to raise rates seven, eight, nine meetings in a row. >> you mentioned if the conflict in ukraine gets resolved, and the resolution of this conflict as it relates to sanctions being lifted, if the conflict is resolved, sanctions may not be lifted and we may still feel those same inflationary pressures? >> that's right. but feds will want to raise rates because it's behind the curve given negative real rates. but you would be worried about extended recession on food fertilizer costs are surging so food inflation is a real problem. it's a bigger weight than energy seldom do we have food and energy shocks at the same time sanctions are unlikely to dissipate, but it may take out high end tail rate that may be 10 or 11%. march numbers are going to show inflation rates year on year at around

tom: you and i have lived the measured of alan greenspan.h this war in ukraine and the fed and there economist, can they get away from measured, saying we will raise rates but it is a one off? diane: i think they have to be very cognizant of saying they will not allow inflation to get out of control any further. they are already behind the curve. this puts them a bad position. one of the hard things from the federal reserve is the tight rope jay powell be walking between wanting to raise rates and stem inflationary pressures and stop inflation from becoming a recession without dipping financial markets into a larger credit market seizure. that would do the job for the fed but would be much harder to recover from. that is a fine tight rope to walk. lisa: there is also the question of the economic fleet through of the higher gas rises. they reached the highest and a nominal basis on record. what is the consequence for the average american family given gas prices are now north of four dollars a gallon? diane: we have done calculations. the reco

she should go talk to her husband, the very distinguished and dear friend of mine alan greenspan who will tell her when you have skyrocketing inflation because you are choking off oil and gas and spending too much money it will not end well. i think folks have this foreboding. i would love it to be different but i will say this, julie. the cavalry is coming. change is on the way. we just have to get through the next seven or eight months, how is that? >> julie: we'll try, larry kudlow, great to see you. have a wonderful weekend. good to see you as always. president zelenskyy is pleading with the world as his people bravely fight against putin's war machine. >> this is outright terror, blatant terror from an experienced terrorist. the world needs to know it has to admit it. >> julie: putin's forces slaughtering civilians as critics say the biden administration is not giving ukrainians what they need to defend themselves. we've got the fallout from that polish jet fiasco coming up. mike tobin is live on the ground in lviv, ukraine and former c.i.a. analyst buck sexton is in "focus" wit

we went through this, by the way, when i joined the fed in 2015, starting in june of 2014 under greenspan's leadership when we had the fed funds at 1%, we started beginning of 19 consecutive rises in the fed funds rate got up to over 5%. 5.75 as i recall took a little time to do that. over two years and only then was beginning to impact the economy and bring inflation down which was much over 4% before it peaked so they're on this path. i wouldn't respond to what's happening in ukraine mainly because we don't know how long it will last it's enormously uncertain. obviously it's very tragic but these kind of commodity price peaks and also what we're seeing in the energy sector are likely to be transitory. the question is for how long they're underwriting more expectations, which is what the fed has to manage, too the expectation of consumers and behavior of businesses >> if i'm understanding you correctly, you're saying because it takes so long for monetary policy to impact the economy, they can't just hold off for now to see what happens with ukraine. >> i don't so. i don't think it's very l

i mean, i've seen one soft landing in my career, and that was in '94 with alan greenspan after a seriess is that so i do think that the economy is going to be -- we already know it's slowing and it was slowing before russia invaded kuwait and we also know earnings have to come down, but nobody has begun yet to revise earnings estimates down in this kind of an environment, you want to have reliable growers. dividend growers are even better, because dividend growers will be a hedge against inflation, so many of the names except for palo alto that i mention have had strong policies and managements are raising dividends. i don't think it's all bad news. they expect to see the ability to deliver decent earnings, and i think you'll get decent returns in the stock market barring a serious recession. i don't think we're going to get that first, i think we're a year away at least, and it will be short and shallow when we get one. there's a lot of good things going on in this economy, not the least of which is tech cap exspending and people returning to work, now maybe because they have to becaus

the snare know played out in '94-95 and in that period greenspan, who was very -- fine reader of the data, he was quick in noticing that business cycle was rolling over i think the fed has to be nimble in deciding when to stop their hikes. but we'll see. it's going to be, could be a bit tricky. >> you point out in 1984 and 1994 those soft landing episodes happened when infligs was already heading lower and unemployment above natural rate. we are in the opposite scenario. inflation rate heading higher and unemployment rate below normal rate? >> most estimates say below and evidence we see in wage growth, running well above productivity growth, would suggests the labor market is very tight by a number of measures. also you mentioned job openings relative to number of unemploymented pea at all-time highs. i think however you look at it feels like unemployment rate below natural rate and therefore exerting upward pressure on inflation. that is, again, unlike those earlier episodes you really had to do in the earlier episodes, slow down growth to around trend growth. here the fed if they

. >> as alan greenspan, who was the worst fed chair ever, would have said, they're obfuscating the truthaughter] here's the bottom line, first, regarding the recession if you look at that chart closely, right now consumer sentiment is worse than it was in march of 2020. it's worse right now. charles: right. >> the difference now is if you look at that chart, you'll see when consumer sentiment plunged that much, we were already halfway into the recession. >> bingo. >> i don't know whether we'll actually get two negative quarters of gdp growth, but i don't think we're going to look back and say, wow, +5%gdp evaporated in a month, it just doesn't happen. charles: only twice in history has the s&p been down this much and there are still this many names above the 50-day moving average, right? 23% of the names above the 50-day moving average, and i'm thinking about this because every show i've done for, like, six months has talked about how many names are below the 50 or 200-day moving average. they're saying we need even more suffering. it's like one of those marvel comic guys, you know, i wa

of divergence in a 210 yield curve, versus the three month, 5-year yield curve was 1994 when alan greenspanof inflation that they hiked rates seven times in a row and two of them were 50 basis points and then a 75 they doubled rates the market acted similarly in that you had a 10% crunch in the beginning of the year, a lot of choppiness around the end of the first quarter. rallied into august. almost to a new high and then that slower economic back drop hit it again toward december so it retested the low and then you didn't look back for four years. so i think we're in this environment and we call it tumultuous there is no question rates are going higher the foed fed is in a box they have to raise rates, no matter the slowdown. >> so tony, it is steve. good to be with you. when you look at this, i remember you saying that whatever de jour rate inversion that you're looking at, it only signaled the recession 18 to 24 months later and the market usually moved up about 15% between then and the actual recession. recessions are normal, healthy and natural. your words when you look at what chairm

charles: wow i remember that was one of greenspan's favorite indicators. a week or so ago you put out the cfo put, the notion is these companies are sitting on tons of money at least $2 trillion. earlier in the week i use autozone as a case study of a company that has employed massive buybacks for a couple decades and the result has been their stock up 27,000 percent, but that of course there's more to it than just buying back stock, right? >> well, i think buying back stocks paying dividends and mergers and acquisitions all are what i mean by the cfo put. there's a tremendous amount of cash on corporate balance sheets , they are generating record amount of cash flow, and the economy is doing reasonably well, as far as they are concerned so you put it altogether, and from that perspective, the headlines aren't consistent with what companies are seeing. they are seeing lots of cash, lots of good opportunities to buy other companies, and to the extent that they still have cash left over buying back stocks makes sense. charles: it semitism does and its been w

politics, the changes regarding race, class, and sexuality and the yin and yang of oprah and alan greenspan. this evening will include an audience q&a so please use the q&a button at the bottom of your screen if you would like to ask a question as well as if someone asks a question you would like to know the answer to, uptick that question. a link to buy "the '90s" will be shared a couple of times tonight. we currently have over 100 actual signed copies, you can see right here. so order yours while supplies last. thanks so much, chuck, for joining us, we're excited to have you. >> this is the beginning? okay. well, you know, this is normally the part in the event where i would say like, boy, it's great to be here. but, you know, it's really not great to be here because i'm not there. i am literally here, like out behind my house. this book could have come out last fall, probably, we probably could have pushed it and had it come out in the fall but we thought, well, if we wait until february, everything about the pandemic will be over and we will all be back to life. it sure seemed that way

as greenspan said once, the u.s. cannot long remain an oasis of stability.onathan: --guy: if we see increasingly the global economy retreating from globalization and falling into insolence that will impact supply change, are we looking at a world of structurally lower growth, higher inflation, higher rates? nathan: deglobalization in the aftermath of the shocks we have seen goes back to the trade wars, the pandemic, the disruptions in supply chain and this geopolitical situation. the prospects for deglobalization are meaningful. as we did globalize, each fragmentation suggests less efficiency. the indication of that would be softer, weaker global growth. parameterizing all of those effects, is not clear how much weaker, but could it be a quarter percentage point weaker? absolutely. if you think about that relative to a baseline growth of 3%, that is substantial in terms of human welfare. guy: on that slightly gloomy note, we will leave it. coming up next, the clock is ticking on russia and its debt. already warning that moscow is on the verge of a default. t

politics the changes regarding race and class and sexuality and then yin and yang oprah and alan greenspan. so this evening's event will include an audience q&a. so please use the q&a button at the bottom of your screen if you'd like to ask a question as well if someone has typed a question, you're all select to know the answer to please upvote that particular question by clicking the thumbs up button. lastly support chuck and pals by purchasing a copy of his book from us a link to buy the 90s will be shared in the chat a couple of times tonight since chuck price graciously stopped by the store. we currently have over a hundred actual signed copies. see right here. i'm right there. so order yours while supplies last. all right. thanks so much chuck for joining us and we're excited to have you. this is the beginning. okay. well, i you know, this is normally the part in the in the event where i would boy i would say like boy, you know, it's it's great to be here. um, but you know, it's really not great to be here because i'm not there. i am literally here like out behind my house, you know.

the -- when greenspan bent over backwards to telegraph the pace of the move and when the moves wouldn. i think 50 is not untoward. guy: are you putting 75 basis point hikes on the table here? jeff: not now. if they move, they should be able to do it. it could happen. what i expect to play out is inflation is not going to come down in the middle of the year all by itself. as the fed has laid out, as chairman powell described last week. i think it's going to persist. there are forces pointing in that direction. firms are passing on costs and so on. in addition, inflation is not going to come down the way we think. they are going to be forced to raise rates faster. that is going to call into question their labor market forecast. i don't think 3.5% unemployment at the end of this year and next year is plausible if they are going to raise rates enough to make progress on inflation. what we will see over the end of the year is an answer to this question. if they are faced with a choice, which did they choose? do they choose to fight inflation first? do they soften their stance on inflation

the changes regarding release and class and sexuality, and the young and young of oprah and alan greenspan. so this evening's event will include audience q&a. so please use the q&a button at the bottom of your screen if you'd like to ask a question. as well as someone has talked a question you would also like to know the answer to, please up for that particular question by stepping clicking the thumbs up at. and lastly, support chuck and posed by purchasing a cop audio of his book for most. and this link to buy the 90s will be posted. since shaq has dropped by the so we have an actual hundred signed copies. so order yours while supplies last. all right, thanks so much, chuck, for joining us, and we're excited to have you. >> this is the beginning? okay! well, you know, this is normally the part in the event where i would be, i would say, like, boy, it's great to be here and! you know, is really not great to be here, because i'm not there! i literally hear, like, out behind my house. you know, this book could have come out last fall, probably. it probably could have pushed it and had it com

poland who were stateless and therefore they were in a sense easy to to move including the young greenspanose parents were being deported across the german polish border and in such terrible conditions that he murdered an official in paris sparking kristallnacht. so it's just to be clear what it says at the bottom. there is not never forget. it says passerby remember and it uses the informal two form of french so it's an informal. speaking to you as a friend kind of thing, and i don't know what the hebrew says, but i would i would suspect it's a translation of that. to your left towards the front, please. was there a relationship between the german campaign against the soviet union and the decisions made and the timing of the decisions made at bonsai? well, yes as i mentioned the first phase of what we know of as the holocaust was barbara rosa was the invasion of the soviet union and and it was this was the mass killings into pits the holocaust by bullets. and so this was really the first first phase when the germans had decided the nazis had decided that that the extermination of the -- w

in the gloomy days of alan greenspan, we did not have quite this level of communication in terms of what the next steps are going to be and how the economy is going to go. for investors, the real benefit is if you have a long-term focus and you can build a portfolio such that it can withstand higher increases, we know directionally there's going to be volatility in the near-term. guy: just to be clear with what you're saying, i love the line about the pinterest board, with the markets be healthier if the fed said less at this point? julie: i think so. it is a little bit the same thing with companies and the guidance because we get so dependent on guidance. it forces us to just look at court to quarter variation, and we are not necessarily understanding the fundamental health of the business, or in this case the economy. if we had less information we would look at the data with the longer-term focus in terms of what does this mean for unemployment large. how are supply shortages going to ripple through a consumer economy like ours rather than the next quarter's 20 basis points, 50 basis p

by the way, allen greenspan did a similar thing back in 1994 that was a tightening cycle that could bere seeing this year. >> that is an interesting touch point. 1994 people are discussing that as a soft landing and aggressive fed tightening cycle but it is only the beginning of transparency in 1994 and i wonder where we're dealing with a different rhythm and you mentioned the objective to tighten financial conditions. since the fed raised rates, stocks have gone up and volatility coming down and credit spreads tightening a bit. is that counter productive to what the fed is doing or give the fed more room to act on rates? >> i think it gives the fed more room in the near term, right they don't want an uptightening of financial conditions. they want conditions to tighten obviously, that is how you try to fight inflation but given that the market reaction so far has been pretty muted, given that the markets are already priced for a pretty aggressive tightening path, they could now try to walk up that forward curve without, at least that is what they hope, without creating too much financ

happens during these periods of fed tightening and we saw that in 1994, that just to dust off the old greenspana holding pattern for possibly six to 12 months. and what we're seeing right now is something very interesting. that as i look at the discounted cash flow model which plugs in earnings growth which continue to grow so that is a good piece of news. earnings growth is expected to be up 10% and that number is holding in pretty firm but what is happening is of course the risk free rate, the 10-year yield is soaring to 2.4% and that should bring the discount rate up for the d.c.f model and i have down side risk potentially to about 3800 if that he were to come to pass but what is happening so far is that the equity risk premium is completely offsetting the rise in the 10-year yield and as a result of the market is kind of staying in balance >> okay. usef, i want you to bring you into this conversation you are at truist. we've seen these rising treasury yieldsism realize maybe the 10 year has come off a little bit in today's session, but we're still trading near multi-year highs and the nasd

neil: viewers will call me back and say you're like the alan greenspan brief case indicator when charliean when i'm wearing a pink shirt? neil: the pink thing sort of dials it back so you're a riddle and the conundrum at the same time. you're the best my friend, thank you very very much charlie gasparino, he is non-stop 24/7 breaking news big developments we'll have more, after this. you're a one-man stitchwork master. but your staffing plan needs to go up a size. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire every business is on a journey. and along the ride, you'll find many challenges. ♪ your dell technologies advisor can help you find the right tech solutions. so you can stop at nothing for your customers. kidney disease affects one in seven american adults. but there is hope, xortx therapeutics is fighting back, with late-stage clinical trials for two drug-based therapies to help slow the progression of acute kidney injury, and chronic kidney disease. xortx therapeutics.

raising interest rates into such a period of geopolitical instability i don't remember the fed under greenspanon desert storm i don't remember the fed raising interest rates, and it wasn't a war, but we had major geopolitical and financial risk coming out of theat asian crisi in 1998. 2003, iraq war, did the fed raise rates then no, it didn't. we're in something totally brand-new. that's one reason why i'm reluctant to say i would be turning bullish in such an elevated period of uncertainty, and on top of that, the fed is going to be draining liquidity it's going to be challenging for the stock market this is not over yet, in terms of not just the weakness but the volatility is going to be with us for some time >> when you look back at the initial tightening the fed has done after a multi-year easing program, so that would be like '94, 2004, 2015, the time from the first hike to the next recession is four to six years, something like that. why is it going to be different, if you think it is, this time? >> i hear that all the time, mike, and it's a totally irrelevant comparison. because histori

can i say when powell speaks, people should start thinking this man is far better we used to have greenspand speak and try to befuddle us he uses great clarity and makes you feel like it's under control. he tries to answer any question about transitory he really -- he does seem like a -- why he does that is because if you get into his cross hairs and saying he didn't get it right, he said, well, why can't i still get it right and all the people say he's behind the curve he was not behind the curve. he was very thoughtful about covid. very thoughtful about the world. including russia. >> yeah. that's exactly what he said. we knew we could be wrong, and i always thought we could pivot pretty quickly and catch up. >> right. >> in the meantime, the economy healed quickly we know what our job is now, which is to move away from the highly accommodative settings. he's like we gave it a chance. all right. it didn't work so we move on. >> right i mean, he does something that most -- he's not a politician. he basically said, look, i have to run he's not afraid of youtube where you endlessly do a tikt

step for us where does the fed go and how fast do they have to get there >> i started in 2005 alan greenspanive moves to ban the curve on inflation which got up into the mid-5s that's going to be the real issue here inflation was up to 4.7% it was starting when i started around 2.7%. it took 19 consecutive moves i have no idea, but i don't think this is a one-shot deal. >> richard, thanks for joining us this morning. >> have a nice day, steve. >> you too i believe the conversation will continue and the decades of experience you have is going to come in handy. thanks for joining us. >> thank you aulg. >>> just after 8:00. ♪ [ indiscernible >>> we're live from the nasdaq market site from times square. i'm joe kernen along with becky quick and steve liesman who's in for andrew let's check out the futures. the nasdaq has turned into the red. it was up 50 points earlier. it's down, 40. >> it was 15. >> we were up 380 on the dow, now 200. we couldn't figure out why things were moving that way. i don't know whether there's anything positive in terms of -- >> the oil price is down. >> the oil price

i thinke1 greenspan was the fir fed chair to starti■ pointing to the market the problem is if the markette of areas. represent some of theÑi■stressed risg yields, fedqtightening,i] lots currency moves this is a six-month chart. theñr■s&p is up about 4%, 4.5% you see some of the performance &há% to keep an eye on. it has been a late-cycle leadership story economy seems to beñr■z■ine, something thequtilities are >> you pointed out that the s&p if it were to kind of fall6■■■bk from the levels it reached goiì% u■qá would be looking at that as some sort of ceiling andçó■con fir f■ make what happens if the market kind of busts through those levels? >> well, it continues to kind of û%t(áz■back the ben foyt f the doubt. the more itqp goes higher from going on with the bond market, a lot5a■ of folks are@(■estioning whether in factg yield moves. i don't think there'sñr■a verdi above the february zv■highs. if you want to look at the beyond that, earnings are up okay. we could have one of these situations where corporate americaÑi■feels like macrohas gotten people nervous, but we're okay for now. >>

allen greenspan raised rates 3 percentage points that year so the challenge here for powell is can hed a new gear for the fed. he's got to shift gears here and try to get them to move faster but like you said, we haven't raised rates that much in the past. the last decade when the fed rase raise aing rates they were going a quarter point a quarter. the fed is looking at doing something more aggressive this year. it will be very interesting to see how financial markets respond. you're already seeing increases in mortgage rates. you're seeing a widening in corporate credit, borrowing spreads. so yes, this is not going to be easy for them by any stretch of the imagination. maria: yeah. i mean, especially since you're also talking about that $9 trillion balance sheet, right, that doubled just over the course of the pandemic. i'm with dagen mcdowell this morning, nick. dagen, jump in here. dagen: you read my mind maria bartiromo. nick, you have written extensively about what the federal reserve did last time and how long it waited to actually start shrinking its balance sheet after the 200