eric hovde is for spending, just not for you.is tax plan that would do just the opposite of what he's talking about. the academy and tax policy are important. he wants to repeal the affordable care act. he wants to have that debate all over again. i helped write the affordable care act including the provision within it i wrote which allows young people to stay on their parents health insurance until they turn 26. on reproductive health care eric hovde cheered when the decision came down. he owns the chaos that has ensued. i'm leading the effort to pass the women's health protection act in the senate. that's the bill that would codify roe nationwide and make sure that states like wisconsin and texas and idaho don't pass laws at the state level that interfere with access to those rights and freedoms. the issue of contrast could not be more stark. voters have such a clear choice on tuesday. >> senator tammy baldwin of wisconsin, thank you so much for being with us. >>> we take a look at the fight to take control of the house. jones

hovde. >> i have a couple of points to make to that. the first one is that there has been almost $100 million spent by hovde. he is a multimillionaire, and his super pac allies, on attacking us and the idea that they don't have anything positive to say about their own agenda, they are just going, taking to the airwaves in social media and attack, attack, attack. it is very important that we get our message through, and so i'm going to exhort your watchers to go to tammy baldwin.com and help us fight back because our message is very positive, and we are going through the contrast on the issues, but just because you invited me to, with regard to eric hovde, he has insulted just about everybody in the state of wisconsin. he talked about farmers not working hard anymore. he insulted single moms. he insulted the children of single moms. he has insulted the lgbtq community. he has insulted people who struggle with their weight. the list goes on and on and on. i think the people of wisconsin deserve somebody who respects them, who listens to t

i think how donald trump does is how eric hovde will do.consin i don't know if hovde winds. the counties around milwaukee but we have a big state and a lot of small little voters that when you add them up they can turn the state. >> harris: did you see the live reporting from door county? i know that area well having left minneapolis many times to vacation in what i used to call the hamptons of the north midwest. it is beautiful there. what changed in that state, that area north of green bay that is important for voters to know since when you ran for congressman? you know that state so well. >> door county again is a vacation area. a lot of small businesses. a lot of money comes in from the outside. a lot of people moved there as well. people move in are more liberal than the people who grew up there and run businesses there. i think the most interesting state will be portage county smack in the middle of the state. it has a university, it has farming, manufacturing, it is like a replica of the state. democrats used to win it by 20 points.

hovde said he would not do that he would have had to pay to that recount himself.-elect trump and his team is a promised overhaul of the environmental protection agency. correspondent alexandria hoff takes a look at what that may mean and what it looks like. good evening, alexandria. >> a good evening, bret. yeah. a new administration focused on deregulation is taking shape. prompting headlines that suggest trump's pick to head the epa former congressman lee zeldin is overshadowing the climate concert going on. president biden isn't there but he said this in brazil yesterday. >> some may seek to deny or delay clean energy revolution underway in america. but nobody, nobody can reverse it. nobody under biden rejoined the paris accord president trump pulled out of. wean the nation off the fossil fuels. >> i will end inflation very quickly, do you know how we are going to end it? by drilling and drilling and drilling, drill, drill, drill current tax credit for electric vehicles is on the chopping block. considering moving the epa out of d.c. while zeldin has not previo

to the senate. >> electing eric hovde and reelecting president trump. >> hovde is the republican challenger to tammy baldwin the incumbent. latest poll shows him four points behind but closing the gap. he is within striking distance. harris and trump are neck-and-neck. ten electoral votes is the prize. >> bill: nice to see you in wisconsin. mike tobin live. >> dana: now let's go south. madison in cobb county, georgia. what's on your radar? >> the race is also neck-and-neck here in georgia. former president trump trying to eke out a win after losing the state by just 12,000 votes last time around. latest polling shows harris up by one point. that's well within the margin of error. interestingly, only one of the tickets will be in the peach state today. trump and vance. vance is set to hold an event later today in cobb county. president trump held a larger rally last night in macon trying to capitalize on votes unhappy with the economy. macon is one of the poorer counties in the state where a quarter of residents live in poverty. harris and walz do not have plans to visit georgia at all today

that senate race between tammy baldwin and eric hovde, the republican is also a top-tier contest.very personally wealthy and has spent a lot of his own money, gotten a lot of outside support to try to paint baldwin as somebody was from washington, who doesn't look out for wisconsinites anymore. democrats have been trying to make the residence in southern california and his ownership of a big bank a real issue for him. and even at the house level, there are some interesting races on either side of this. you got the first congressional district, which is in southeastern wisconsin, republican faces a challenge. in a seat that would probably go republican but has been interesting. and on the western side of the state, the freshman republican is facing a pretty stiff challenge from democrat rebecca cook, a seat that will probably go republican, but two races that we are watching pretty closely. i watch a lot of campaign ads, i've seen probably dozens of campaign ads from tammy baldwin, eric of the -- caricom the -- eric hovde d, i struggle to recall any of them in touch on climate chan

key raises in arizona michigan navy wisconsin still being anxietied the race been balance win and hovdeleast 52 maybe 535, 4 manipulate 55 eric is slightly behind called bin claimed victory might be tough for eric overcome that exceptional man would have been a great u.s. senator we hold fingers and pray i am not sure wisconsin is possible certainly pennsylvania maybe michigan may be nevada we need to secure the house, so we can use reconciliation prevent that tax increase or a struggle with democrats, i hope they don't want to poison the well that is -- 2016, you saw what they did throughout last years as well, again, i hope, democrats i hope they allow this nation to heal unify allow it successful, stall what president trump wants to do. >> what about senate in terms of leadership? are we are going to see a senate that works well with president trump? mitch mcconnell stepping down, you've got rick scott, john thune john cornyn vying to be next senate majority leader, senator. do you think they will work well with president trump who did you want to see at the top of the senate? >> wel

tammy baldwin is in a close race against the republican challenger, eric hovde. points. according to the latest poll, baldwin leads by two points. with high stakes, former president obama shouted out the campaign today. >> remember how the affordable care act let's young people stay on their parents plan until they are 26, tammy wrote that part of the bill. she knew it was important.'s that is the kind of work course that we need in washington. that is the kind of person that is going to help get camelot good in office. -- help get kamala harris in office. >> she is legit. >>> your lead has narrowed from seven points to just two points. why is the gap closing and do you feel it is that type of a race? >> we are battleground state and always have been. think back to how close presidential races have been. i see it no different except for the momentum i am seeing in the final weeks. i always knew it would be a close race which is why it committed to traveling the state just as they do as a senator. listening to people and getting to work on solutions. in this campa

and i'm voting for trump and hovde. >> pete: we're going to have eric hovde on the program in a littleers how are you feeling about republicans this cycle. >> i think republicans are going to win. it's going to be close. there is too much silliness going on out there with this current administration. i think the republicans are going to take it. [cheers and applause] >> pete: jenny, you and your husband voted early. you helped your sons submit absentee ballots. they are in college. made four votes already. how are you feeling about the election here in wisconsin? >> good. there has been a lot of interest in us of course because we are a swing state. i have seen a lot more ground activity than we have in the past. and a lot more signs and enthusiastic rallies, they have had a lot of visits to wisconsin. that's been great to see that, too. >> pete: as far as issues that you and your husband are voting on on behalf of all, strong intelligent women. [laughter] what matters the most to you? >> for us, it's the economy. we have three boys, one just finished college, and he has a great job bu

. >> and eric hovde. >> pete: stick around we are talking to voter all morning. >> ainsley: high iq yaleaw school and wharton business on that ticket. >> steve: rachel campos-duffy is live at the superior diner in pennsylvania where the polls are going to open at 7:00 eastern time. rachel? >> rachel: hey, guys, listen. i thought i would be jealous because pete is with my peeps in wisconsin. talked to somebody from hayward where sean is from. but, boy, the love in here is huge. people are so excited. we're in emmaus, superior restaurant. and as you know pennsylvania is so important. the candidates have visited this state more than any other state, 16 times for kamala 15 times for donald trump. this table here, they are like the kind of guys that turn in their homework early. they all voted already. when did you vote? >> october 7th. >> rachel: really early. >> mail in vote, yes. >> rachel: what was your top issue? >> the open border covers everything, the economy, the crime is open border. >> rachel: your top issue? >> oh, yes. open border, too. that covers it all. >> rachel: same for you

while donald trump fights for billionaires and his wealthy friends like eric hovde, kamala harris will fight every day for us. [applause] that is why we need to send her back to the white house. we need to send senator baldwin back to the senate, and we need to elect democrats up and down the ballot. [applause] and now, without further ado, it is my pleasure to introduce our friend from across the river and the next second lady of the united states of america, mrs. walz. [applause] >> ♪ >> hello, hello, hello, wisconsin! oh, come on. hello, wisconsin! [applause] yes! now that is the kind of greeting that we give our neighbors. i am so excited to be here today . thank you to samuel for that introduction. he graduated from the same school where scott went to middle school so it is super special to have that introduction. oh dear friend is with us today. yes. if you will greet tony for me, that would be great. we have had 70 great times with them. of course a fighter like no other and practically and member of our family, senator klobuchar. and thank all of you for coming today. i am so g

another incumbent trying to protect the seat for her party, tammy baldwin with a slight edge over erik hovdecontrol of the u.s. house is up for grabs, and at this point, it's too close to call. narrow margins, a very slim set of battleground seats, the magic number here, 218. democrats made some end roads in new york. let me just show you one or two. new york's fourth district on long island leans democrat, that would be a win for republicans. new york's 19th district, democrats appear poised to win that back from republicans, but the republicans made end roads in the presidential battleground states. in michigan, in the seventh district, they appear poised to win a democratic seat, and in pennsylvania, not one but two seats, the eighth district in scranton, and the seventh district in allentown appear poised to flip. republicans are bullish on their prospects of winnin the house too. >> all right. scott, thank you so much. as we unpack election day and spin things forward, we are going to look at what president trump's priorities might be when he takes office. stick around, you're watching

in wisconsin, tammy baldwin trying to win as a democrat independent eric hovde. the madison, wisconsin, area, another competitive race. they're being marinated in presidential and senate ads. these blue wall states will determine not just the white house, potentially, but also whether the new u.s. senate will handcuff or help a future president harris or future president trump. at our election headquarters in new york, i'm scott macfarlane. >>> coming up on "cbs mornings," special election day coverage as millions of americans head to the polls today. i'm michael george. this is "cbs news mornings." da. i'm michael george. this is "cbs news mornings." mucinex kickstart gives all-in-one and done relief with a morning jolt of instant cooling sensation. it's comeback season. we lose 1% of our collagen every year, starting in our 20s, which means we must start banking collagen for plumper, glowing skin. do it with neutrogena collagen bank. trust me, i'm a banker. shouldn't they trust me, the dermatologist? it's not a competition. missing out on the things you love be

eric hovde is a trump and dorsey in this race.plications. if baldwin loses it could determine if democrats remain or keep their control of the u.s. senate and washington d.c. >> okay. tell me where you are exactly? that does not look like much of a celebratory party behind you. >> i am sorry repeat what you said. where am i? >> it looks a little morose. we will have to leave it there will come back to you later. some of our stations will be rejoining local coverage now. our national political coverage continues here on spectrum news. our national clinical coverage continues here now on spectrum news poles and former states are closing in just a few minutes including california but let's take a look at where the race stands right now. you can see a lot of read a lot for donald trump. none are really considered swing states. possible exception of iowa what onepoint the democrats are hopig to go their way because of a pole that has been not the case according to the associated press. i'm joined by my colleague and you look at that ma

and in wisconsin republican eric hovde is just behind democratic incumbent tammy baldwin.xt guest knows all about crucial races and when they could come in. former house speaker kevin mccarthy tapped in as anyone. gave millions of dollars to make sure republicans did well. i'm sure they appreciate it. your thoughts, first off about the night overall, the biggest surprise for you. we talked on the radio for a half hour. you looked at all the scenarios. this to me is such a decisive win. i think it even caught trump supporters by surprise. >> it did for america regardless. president trump has won the electoral college not even close and popular vote. pulled the republicans across. much larger than anybody thought. exactly because when you carry like montana more than 10 points. when you carry ohio, when you carry pennsylvania. when you carry wisconsin. but is he going to do that in the house. we are going to keep the house. we wouldn't if it wasn't for president trump. >> brian: lost new york seats. >> you had redistricting in north carolina. so we automatically got three mo

you see that incumbent, democrat tammy baldwin went on to win a third term against republican eric hovdemp won margins just under 1 point. like arizona, baldwin out performed harris by about 4,000 votes. ho did i under performed trump by 54,000 votes, again you look at the fox news voter analysis. trump beats harris with voters who have total household income of less than $50,000. however, baldwin ran neck and neck with that same group. potentially a consequential shift in such a razor thin election. finally we are going to take it out here and we will check in on michigan and what happened there. the differently as you see elissa slotkin, the democrat pug off a narrow victory against republican mike rogers just under half a point or about 20,000 votes. both under performing the presidential tickets. rogers by much wider margin. getting fewer than 117,000 votes. fewer than president-elect trump. ands would we look at our fox news voter analysis on the top issues, president-elect trump performed much better than harris on the economy and immigration, but he also did slightly better than r

watch it flip from 50.1 from hovde, to 51.3 for trump.vantage for trump. you take a look at the senate race, and it's a little more than half that. so again, baldwin behind, but running substantially closer to hovde than in the presidential race, we're seeing with trump and harris here. so again, if this thing becomes tight enough, if you're in a situation ever, where trump eeks out a victory in a presidential, and hovde is running a point or so behind him, there's the potential there for a split as well. remember in wisconsin, in 2020, it was a difference of 20,000 votes that separated trump and biden. in 2016, there was a senate race, the outcomes did sync up that time with trump and ron johnson winning. these basic dynamics, i want to take a look here. i did want to see, baldwin has gone to 183,000. and i wanted to measure this against -- yeah, they're equal. this is significant, because we've talked about it all night. now officially, harris has expanded the democratic margin in dane county. about 182,000 last time. so this is yet aga

it becomes relevant to the campaign of senate candidate hovde, the republican challenger to the incumbent democrat tammy baldwin. he went into the early morning hours in the lead. he is now behind less than a percentage point. baldwin campaign declared victory, ap has not called that senate race yet. >> dana: thank you so much. thank you, mike. >> bill: north carolina meanwhile breaking decisively for president elect trump with record high turnout despite damage from hurricane helene in the western part of the state. we're live in raleigh with jonathan serrie. >> 5.7 million people cast ballots in north carolina. it didn't set a record in terms of sheer numbers it by far beat all previous elections. the big surprise as you pointed out was the high turnout in the western part of the state that suffered all those storm damage. other than the blue datz of asheville and boone this is a reliably conservative region and it delivered for president-elect donald trump. the state has a tradition of electing presidents and governors from opposing parties. john stein defeated republican mark robinson

race aside from the presidential race we are watching in wisconsin is a senate race, challenger eric hovdeiving the incumbent tammy baldwin a run for her money, started out trailing her, he has now moved well within the margin of error, in striking distance, so we will keep an eye on that one. john? >> john: mike tobin in milwaukee, thank you so much. >> sandra: okay, the moment you've been waiting for. larry kudlow is here, host of "kudlow" on fox business you have been here and doing your homework, certain parts of the country you are watching and issues you will be watching but give us, larry kudlow's top line thoughts at 2:00 eastern time? >> you know, the pollsters uniform is a complete toss-up, complete even and so forth and so on. i wrote a piece yesterday, talked about it on the show, i think there is some things that pollsters are missing. these are not brand-new thoughts. a couple other people have suggested it. but look, republicans have had tremendous come back in the last four years for voter registration. alex castillo knows point, we checked the numbers very carefully, he is

incumbent senator tammy bolden will maintain her wisconsin seat, defeating republican businessmen eric hovdem, he was feeling pretty optimistic, obviously pretty thin margin there, but that race just called him a senate race in wisconsin. >> john: got to be some tickets putting going on there because donald trump projected to win wisconsin, tammy baldwin maintains her seat, a more than a few people voted for him at the top of the ticket and her in the undercard. >> sandra: there was some personal jabs exchanged in this race. he made his case, said he was sticking to the economy, was the biggest issue for voter in that state. she is that a message that won different voters over. >> john: former attorney general bill barr calling on prosecutors to dismiss all of the cases against president-elect trump for the good of the country. kerri urbahn is coming up to weigh in on that. stay with us. and when the stock market crashes and it does from time to time, our clients are protected against losses. literally, they go up with the market, lock in their gains, and when the market goes down, they don'

tammy baldwin moved ahead of hovde by .7. >> steve: keeping track, so far the republicans have flippedwo seats. senator elect bernie moreno from the great state of ohio is going to be joining us live right here on this post game show. >> brian: such an exciting day. got to put it all in perspective. don't move. you are watching "fox & friends." you don't need to check your tv guide, it's us. ♪more ♪ no home. no health care. so she said no to this injustice and yes to transforming lives. it's this drive, this compassion that inspired aarp. today, we empower people to choose how they live as they age. as a wise friend and fierce defender, we advocate for better health, financial security, and stronger communities. aarp. join us in making a difference. (♪) (♪) voltaren... for long lasting arthritis pain relief. (♪) america. built by those who dare to dream, those who push the limits, and those who serve. at bass pro shops, we stand with those who stand for our freedoms... proudly offering a legendary salute discount every day. and recently partnering with the army and air force exchange s

hovde ran a good race there. what does it mean for president trump that he will have this republican majority going forward? he might be able to get a lot done. >> absolutely critical, right? it starts with all of your personnel. if they want to confirm cabinet secretaries you better be sure you have a united states senate. it was mitch mcconnell's lasting goal to try to insure that he turned over a republican majority to his successor and raised somewhere north of $4 hundred million and had a great partnership with steve danes to recruit candidates who could compete and win this cycle. he didn't get everything on the map but tough to beat a senate democratic incumbent and they went around and the pennsylvania in and of itself, that win in ohio very big win. could well pick up another one in nevada and they have the one in west virginia. they will have a majority here. it will make life a lot easier for president trump when he takes office. >> dana: josh holmes, fun to have you along with us on this ride and more

watching between tammy baldwin who is in a close race now with republican banker and entrepreneur eric hovde. >> bret: michigan senate race also too early to call. g.o.p. congressman mike rogers competing against current democratic house representative elissa slotkin. ruby ban gallego has a lead over republican candidate kari lake also too early to call out there. >> martha: nebraska two senate races on the ballot today. the race between incumbent deb fischer and independent dan osborn is too close to call and too early to call i should say according to our decision desk. fox news can project that republican pete ricketts will continue to serve as a nebraska senator. >> in texas, two term senator ted cruz is locked in a close race against current democratic congressman collin allred, too early to call that race according to the decision desk. they can project that minnesota's democratic senator amy klobuchar will sale to a fourth term. >> martha: kristin gillibrand will win another term in the empire state. and democrats will hold their seat in new mexico where senator martin heinrich defeat

being called, we were watching that all night long, the split between the republican challenger eric hovde the incumbent tammy baldwin is about 29,000 votes, or .89% -- wait 86%. that is about the same split, the margin of victory, with donald trump in wisconsin, just shy of 30,000 votes. that's a wider margin than joe biden took wisconsin in 2024, and frank they wider margin than president trump toon 2016. we talked with voters here in wisconsin about what mattered to them as they left the polls. any one particular issue that is driving you? >> um, no, just lowering the cost of household items and maybe immigration. >> i just take it is important to vote and exercise your right. >> women's rights is a big issue for me. i've got a daughter, young 7-month-old daughter, and i want her to grow up in a country that values women and treats them right. >> i think that it's really cool to get to be able to vote however i want and for other people to be able to vote however they want, so i just think the whole democratic process is really interesting and i'm really happy to participate. >> and the

eric hovde, the republican challenger, started well behind the incumbent, senator tammy baldwin, theocrat, but he's gained a lot of ground. he's within striking distance. we'll see how it works out. pack to you. >> thank you so much for that, mike. sandra smith, the cohost of "america reports," very, very busy tonight. we're also keeping an eye on other battleground states. sandra, what do you have? >> fox news voter analysis will come in throughout the evening. it will help us tell the story of the night and the election, neil. first i'm going to take our viewers through georgia. okay? we'll be watching georgia's closing, 7:00 eastern tonight. obviously 16 electoral votes in that state are key pathways to victory for both candidates. but the story in georgia is to look back at the election results of 2020. the and i keep saying, sometimes you have to be reminded, just how close things got in some of these states. neil, everybody remembers, it was a .2 percentage point difference for joe biden's victory. that's 11,000 votes that split the difference. so keeping that in mind, what cou

moment for america, and certainly the people that are voting for eric love key and president trump -- hovdeey are incredibly incentivized to come out and not only vote for themselves, but talk to everybody they know. >> the trump team is doing everything they can to make sure people get that access to vote. find your way to the polls, to places, be aware of the issues that are going on. if you need help, we'll get you help. whatever it is, all hands on deck right now. >> reporter: the last two presidential elections were decided in wisconsin by less than a percentage point. the people here understand that evidenced by the fact that early voting numbers are up by more than a quarter million ballots from this time last election. dana? dana: mike tobin, thank you so much. bill hemmer, what do you have down there in that studio? bill: hey. some of the features our viewers will be introduced to now, and you'll see a lot more come tuesday night. i just want the recap. the race to to 270, that's what this is all about. even today as we are here, trump's best chance to get to 270, like the straight

of the day, it is going to come down to the voters making that choice and we feel great about eric hovdegers and dave mccormick. >> ainsley: for the d.a. mccormick race, do you believe that poll? "new york times" siena college. down 5 points. >> we see we are in great position to win on elections day. all of the early vote, absentee vote numbers we have seen are extremely encouraging. make sure we get it out. what we saw with the in person voting in pennsylvania where six hours lines down the stretch in republican areas. the enthusiasm is extremely high and donald trump is going to be closing out today with two different rallies in pennsylvania. and we're really encouraged by what we seeing on the ground. >> ainsley: i don't know how he does it. four different rallies today. three different states. now, when we looked at the emerson poll. when you looked at iowa it. has donald trump up 10 points above kamala harris. 53 to 43. but then yesterday, everyone was talking about this new poll out of iowa. "the des moines register" poll where harris is getting 47% and trump is getting 44%. what

so how you discount his life as there was nothing that eric hovde, um the governor's office current governor mike parsons his office says governor parson is considering clemency for mr. duvall, but has made no decision at this time. laura has either office of the governor or governor elect. have they reached out to you? have they reached out for your thoughts on this? >> no. they haven't. they have not. i have not heard a thing, and i really wish that they would mm. laura let me also stay with you for this question. have you prepared yourself for the day? that is likely coming that, um that your son's convicted killer will be pardoned and released from prison about a year or so into his six year sentence >> it's like how do you prepare yourself for something like that? you're never prepared. i was not prepared to hear that. my son was killed. so how do you prepare for it? i mean, i know just based off of the report and what they have of what governor elect has stated is that this is something that's most definitely going to happen. but how do i prepare for that? i know there are things that

tammy baldwin defeating eric hovde in the race. it shows you the difference. 27,000 votes ahead of eric. the republican. owner of a multibillion dollar bank. one of the nastiest senate races in the country. what we have seen is a bit of a phenomenon happening. kamala harris losing in wisconsin. tammy baldwin, the democrat, winning there. you are seeing it in places like arizona. the democratic candidate in the senate that ruben gallego is leading. similarly in michigan. >> all right, excellent explanation. thank you very, very much. and vice president kamala harris has spoken to donald trump and officially conceded and the nation will hear from her about two hours or so from now. cnn's priscilla alvarez is at harris' campaign headquarters. give us details about what kamala harris will say in her concession speech. >> reporter: what we are learning in the last hour, the vice president did call former president donald trump and congratulated him on his win. according to an aide, she also discussed what they called quote the importanc

hovde in wisconsin, leading right now. sam brown in nevada is closing in on jackie rosen. historic numbers here if all of these dominoes fall. you're talking about a senate that could be 54-46, 55-45. that wasn't in the cards. martha: not at all. bret: that wasn't on anybody's bingo card when you came into election night. martha: but these candidates have fought really strong races and closed in a a very strong way and, in fact, many of them were pulling into +5, +6 in just over the last three weeks, so it is a fascinating part of this story. hopefully, or we'll be able to call some more of those soon. bret: former house speaker kevin mccarthy says with these coattails, you could see the house going republican as well. let's go back out to trace gallagher on the west coast with his panel. hey, trace. >> thank you. we've got steve hilton, joad key armour, kaylee mcghee white and vi january know -- gianno caldwell. kayly mcgee white was struck by the concept that, again, trump was undercounted. >> this is the third condition sective polling miss in a presidential cycle for d

eric hovde, a banker who ran for senate a decade or so ago is faenator tammy baldwin.t is a big lift f republicans right now. that is one of the race is mmer.ng away from them in the we saw tammy baldwin was outspending and out fundraising eric hovde on the airways. as presidential race has gotten close, the senate race has gotten incredibly close. there is a common theme in the presidential battleground. it is so rare for split ticket present -- split ticket candidates to succeed. only 3% of all senators represent a state that went the opposite way of the presidential level. river wins the top of the ticket is probably, that party is going to end up winning the senate race as well. peter: this text is really in play for the senate seat for democrats? >> texas has been democrats white whale for years they are really trying to evoke it or work school run in 2018. ruing there. is the democrat former nfl player. he has outraised ted cruz every month this year. ted cruz has had to rely heavily on his super pac to support him. colin allred is blanketing the airway. because

we also have eric hovde, and we also have bernie moreno in ohio. the sunbelt poll trump enjoys a three point lead in the latest trafalgar poll of north carolina, while two candidates are neck and neck in nevada, a state where the early vote has shown a lot of promise for republicans. let's get the very latest. our polling experts, the cohost of the polling plus podcast, two of the most accurate pollsters, both in 2016 and 2020 matt towery. insider advantage robert cahaly, trafalgar. good to see you both. matt, what do you see it? well, let me start with this. i know the polling prognosticators and raters are frustrated with us pollsters, some of us, because these polling numbers are so close. there's a reason they're close. robert and i actually saw this race catch up. trump catch up after that second assassination attempt. and we actually pegged that first. but you get to a certain point at which you you can't wring much more out in a poll. and i'll give you an example. in georgia, i just learned tomorrow that fulton county plans on having four el

bret: as we see on the screen here, this is wisconsin, this is hovde with 1.22 million to baldwin, theuld flip it over to michigan, mike rogers has a lead on slotkin in that race, 50.3 to 46.9. these races, they fall in the same cat glory. as i mentioned before, ohio, michigan, wisconsin, they have a lot of the same issues; energy, you know, all of them campaigned similarly. and they all a appear to be doing well and maybe outperforming. martha: yeah. and just a couple of things about the senate because remember that a vice president harris said that she was open to ending the filibuster if it meant that was what was necessary the to restore roe v. wade. there was also discussion -- not hammered too much on campaign trail, but the idea of making puerto rico and d.c. states has been kicked around for a long time, possibly expanding supreme court. so these are ideas that i think in many ways were galvanizing to a lot of voters. and we're seeing what's happening in the united states senate, so if this continues -- well, we know now that there's a majority, so at least in the short term, t

that senate race between tammy baldwin and eric hovde, the republican is also a top-tier contest. personally wealthy and has spent a lot of his own money, gotten a lot of outside support to try to paint baldwin as somebody was from washington, who doesn't look out for wisconsinites anymore. democrats have been trying to make the residence in southern california and his ownership of a big bank a real issue for him. and even at the house level, there are some interesting races on either side of this. you got the first congressional district, which is in southeastern wisconsin, republican faces a challenge. in a seat that would probably go republican but has been interesting. and on the western side of the state, the freshman republican is facing a pretty stiff challenge from democrat rebecca cook, a seat that will probably go republican, but two races that we are watching pretty closely. i watch a lot of campaign ads, i've seen probably dozens of campaign ads from tammy baldwin, eric of the -- caricom the -- eric hovde d, i struggle to recall any of them in touch on climate change.

eric hovde he ended up losing to tammy baldwin but not much.a lot of people were counting him out months ago. trump matters obviously. mcconnell said so in the press conference yesterday. this candid quality question mattered. top republicans tried to clear a lot of these primaries. for example, hovde was able to escape without much of a challenge. mccormick, same thing in pennsylvania. brown, a little more of a challenge, but still. republicans really made an effort on that end, recruit these candidates they thought they could get across the finish line. the big thing now is how big the margin will be. if mccormick wins, that is 53. that is big heading into the next cycle when the map does not get easier. it is a lot harder next cycle, a lot of defense in these red states, maine, which is not a red state. not a lot of pickup opportunities. they need to get as many this cycle. host: the 119th congress, the head of inauguration, besides the confirmation process for trump and his officials, what does the senate and the next congress, what do repu

hovde is in trouble there.wn. brown in the lead in the count with 1190 but i don't know how comfortable he feels with that because, again, look at the contrast to the presidential race where donald trump has opened up a very healthy five-point advantage statewide, nearly 60,000 votes, 60,000 votes in a state the size of nevada is very significant. you can see this is right here in clark county i think most dramatically, clark county 70% plus usually a democratic county by high single digits. so far trump is a point behind harris. very good for a republican in clark county, but flip it over to the senate race here and this is closer to what republicans are used to in clark county. that's a pretty big dropoff from basically a tie to 50,000 votes there, advantage for rosen. so, again, rosen with a real chance even if trump is in pretty good position in nevada which has not yet been called rosen could pull that one out. arizona two-thirds of the vote, a little less in statewide, gallego 60,000 votes over kari lake,

wisconsin senate race, democratic incumbent, tammy baldwin is facing a republican challenger, eric hovden the very interesting nebraska senate race, we've got the incumbent republican, deb fischer, and it is too early to call. we've got 42 republicans seated, we've got 33 democrats seated, this reflects one seat gained by the republican party in west virginia, the seat vacated by outgoing independent joe manchin. let's go back down to florida where we have a call in the abortion rights measure, in florida, amendment 4, as you see here, it has 57% yes and 43% no but 60% is the threshold that the yes side needed in florida for the right to abortion ballot measure, the amendment to florida state constitution, nbc news can project that the abortion rights measure in georgia -- florida will fall short of 60% threshold. finally, let's look at one governors race, we have the governor's race in north dakota and the governor's race in north dakota at this hour is projecting as too early to call. so again, a lot of calls, i think the one, i don't know if it qualifies as a surprise, but one that de

tammy baldwin, the mben democratic senator seeking a third term versus eric have the the republican -- hovdeblican, he is in the lead with 60% of the vote in. seat, kyrsten sinema descendede -- decided n to seek reelection. 50% vote, ruben gallego holding all into his lead over kari lake. montana, the senate re, have been watching to see what happens with the incumbent jon test who typically has tight races. he is trailing tonight by nearly 15ntag points. there is only 20% of the vote in so we will keep ann that one. in nevada, another race we are watching, 74% of the vote in. jacky rosen seeking a second term facing off against arm veteran sam brown. the total spending in this race, ne $200 million, jacky rosen won by five points in 2018 in her first bid for the senate. look how close this is with 70% and new jersey's open s seat, this was called earlier t. theteswas for the seat after senator bob menendez opted not to run after being indicted on federal corruption charges. imaty resigned after being convicted. this seat stays with democrats. peter: we will check in with greta in a few minu

she's been in office since 2012, ran against a venture capitalist, eric hovde.e has been at least this bit of good news on what has been not a very good day for democrats. tammy baldwin, the projected winner by less than 1%. we saw a lot of activity around the university there. lots of long lines, milwaukee, as you would expect in those areas of the big cities. she is the only democrat to have gotten a number of endorsements, including some that typically might go the republicans' way, the farm bureau. so here's where we're left for the senate with the uncalled races, maine, pennsylvania, of course, also another of the battleground states, along with arizona, michigan, nevada, there you see the list there, as we continue to do the big picture of where we are in the senate at this hour. the dems with 43 senate seats. the republicans have tied up control of the u.s. senate with 52. let's bring it back to our panel. i want to go back, maria, if i can, to the phone call that was you made. this is part of the peaceful transition of power. you pick up the phone. you c

home to an incredibly competitive senate race between tammy baldwin and republican challenger eric hovdeator baldwin joins us now. thank you for joining us. we have been chewing over this iowa poll that surprised everybody over the weekend. you are close by in wisconsin. tell us if you're seeing any shades of that there. >> yes. well, we looked at that iowa poll and what it told us, whether it's accurate or not, is momentum, momentum, momentum. and so i can tell you that on the ground here in wisconsin, every campaign canvass that i helped launch, you know, the volunteers are extraordinary. and we are seeing a lot of momentum on the ground. that is stark contrast what people are seeing on the air waves and online. this campaign, sadly, has been all attacks on the part of my opponent and his super pact allies. they spent probably $100 million on attack ads because their agenda is so unpopular. my opponent would repeal the affordable care act. i helped write the affordable care act. my opponent celebrated when the dobbs decision came down overturning roe v wade. i am the champion of the wo

it's very possible there's enough votes there to get baldwin over hovde in that senate race.draum law there. if you zoom out here -- i'm trying to put the presidential race on. go back to the presidential race, 110,000 statewide. we identified at the start of the night i just want to close the loop, a bunch of tests in these battleground states. i'll tell you where trump's not had a great night in wisconsin and it's interesting to me. we talked about the bow counties, brown, green bay, appleten, winnebago, that's where oshkosh is. the question coming into tonight was trump's numbers going to look like 2020 when he lost wisconsin or going to look like 2016 when he won the state? basically in the bow counties he's at 2020 levels here. take a look now you see trump is up in winnebago from 2020. but in winnebago you're waiting on the city of oshkosh. that's going to bring that number down, could end up looking like it did in 2020 at any step forward. that's one of it reasons why wisconsin is not moving as dramatically as some of these other states in the northern tier. one of the