so are we witnessing and iran 2 point? oh, that is strategic. we contract it from its previous regional ambitions. today we're talking with ronnie in american political sciences valley. nicer professor of international relations at the johns hopkins school of advanced international studies here on this special edition of the show at the doha for him and cut our thank you so much for joining us today. this is an over the last year. i just love to get your sense of the middle east and the ron's place. and it because it seems to me as if is really united states had been re shaping the region and really profound ways. iran used to seem to be writing high in a lot of the countries. how do you see it now? you're absolutely right. when, when the october 7th attacks happened the day 1st year, it looked like iran and its excess of resistance. i'd really coordinate those rail, turned the tables on it and looked very strong in the region. and then the tide of war changed. first of all, the gaza was decimated in many ways, and then his bullet found itself i

if that's true, iran is not. and then 1st that on the, in russia or not existential threats, the united states, you have to find a way to pin them away. and basically isolate china, so yes i do thing what you're saying is, is feasible and the 5, you know, you, we weren't that sort of a kiss in jerry and moments in american foreign policy. he would think that way. but, but we, we sort of got ourselves into this position that we can take all of these enemies all at once with the same tools. the result of which is we actually the ink cartridge in the emergence of a, your asian land. last, which goes from russia to china and south to the gulf, which is much bigger than iran alone. russia alone or china. did joe biden make a terrible mistake of not really reaching out and try to consolidate something with them earlier before the trumpet administration came in. was that a a real blunder when his 1st blunder was that he didn't negotiate something with them when he 1st became president? and still this crew crew was still

that when iran was ready to do a dealer, a grand bargain. you know, united states gave them a cold shoulder. you know, when united states was more of a negotiating mode, iran was in a difficult space. and so i'm just sort of interested as you sort of look forward. is there any way that you don't end up in the worst box? if we're talking about game theory, where you run just has to get a nuclear weapon, has to develop that capacity because it seemed the deterioration of that situation . so much is that where you think we'll end up and then and then next to that, how do you think the saudis are looking at this whole thing? so i think they're not there yet. uh, they still are looking at their nuclear program as a, as a bargaining chip in order to uh, get somewhere with united states. i actually am not as on hold for as, as, as maybe i should be for the reason that this, that there were 2 forces in the middle east, which did not want to break through between iran and the united states. one was the golf out of countries and one was this right. an

but if it doesn't, it could. iran could survive to fight. and now today, what do you think are you think they're going to do something positive? i mean, it's not your instinct. no, because you see the iranian, see this as a long war. they've lost the battle. they haven't lost the war. and an israel, on the other hand, has won a massive battle in a very decisive way. i surprised everybody, but it might misread the moment when i tried to overreach. so i think de ronnie and calculation is that the old model of the way they managed israel and the low volunteer is gone by the date wiped out, is wiped out. exactly. uh, not just going like, it's really, you know, what we might need. we have to also be careful to not to over read into oh, well then i want to, i want to ask about this because i may be wrong in this assessment. but again, and you know, ron's motivations and, and view so much better than i do. but it seemed to me like, ok it, ron was, was a little cautious and careful about wanting to own regardless situation too much. that's why you d

mistake on iran's part.n proxy, hezbollah, is also on its back. 12 days ago i spoke _ on its back. 12 days ago i spoke in _ on its back. 12 days ago i spoke in the rose garden about the cease—fire deal in lebanon, it was— the cease—fire deal in lebanon, it was only— the cease—fire deal in lebanon, it was only possible because hezbollah has been badly degraded. meanwhile, hamas has been— degraded. meanwhile, hamas has been badly degraded as well. iran's— been badly degraded as well. iran's own military capabilities have been weakened. iran tried two times to attack— weakened. iran tried two times to attack israel and the united states— to attack israel and the united states build a coalition of countries to directly defend israei— countries to directly defend israel and help defeat those attacks _ israel and help defeat those attacks. all this made possible for iran— attacks. all this made possible for iran and hezbollah to continue to prop up, made it impossible i should say, for them — impossible i should s

do you think this makes iran _ in syria. do you think this makes iran more - in syria.s iran more vulnerable in syria. do you think this - makes iran more vulnerable the fact it all played out so publicly, iran appeared to be caught off guard here? absolutely if you go back to october of 2023 the last 14 months, the iran axis of resistance which means various proxy group in some countries have fallen from her mass, his bowler and now al—assad, the islam it republic spent 20 years and billions of dollars creating the axis of resistance. and now it is crumbling, iran has tough choices ahead it can stay and try to come back and re— mobilise and rescue some what is left of axis of resistance could take the plunge and essentially go on a very different direction, and focus on the issue building at home which is what the iranians public opinion wants instead of these open—ended adventures and supporting various political projects in the region that are essentially falling apart at the moment.— essentially falling apart at the moment. ~ ., ., ~' the moment. what do you think w

it was not directed against iran, it was not directed against the people of iran. it was not undertaken with any feeling of hostility toward iran or its people. it has caused no iranian casualties. planning for this rescue effort began shortly after our embassy was he reached -- was seiged. i waited until now to put those rescue plans into effect. and intensive training and repeated rehearsal. however, a resolution of this crisis through negotiations and with voluntary action on the part of iran was then, has been and will be. the iranian authorities could not or would not resolve the crisis on their own initiative. with the steady unraveling of authority in iran and the growing realization that release was highly unlikely, i made a decision to commence a rescue operation. the attempt became a necessity and duty. the greatest of our team to undertake the rescue. i made the decision to set our long developed plans into operation. the rescue mission was prepared to safeguard american lives, protect american national interest, and the crisis has continued. it was my d

iran can't and won't do it. that has concentrated minds among hamas leadership about meeting to bring this to a conclusion but you are also dealing with an organization where decision-making is very challenged and very difficult. just that piece alone is hard in the communications piece is not easy. so you are also dependent on a small number of individuals who may not have the same pragmatic framework that we would bring to this so all of that said, look, i am hopeful. you have to be. we are going to use every minute of every day of every week that we have left to try to get this done but i don't want to hazard a guess as to what the probability is. it should happen. it needs to happen. we need to get people home. we need to get the cease-fire. we need to get people moving in a different direction toward better lives, toward repairing the terrible damage that has been done. and i think the entire world wants to see that happen. we also cannot have hamas not only holding hostage the individuals that it took on o

he was bribing iran. and in return bribing iran, he wanted one thing. he wanted iran to keep americans hostage as he wanted to prolong incarceration. i don't i haven't seen any democrat do anything like that. and, you know, i'd be surprised if if former presidents like obama have never had conversations with foreign leaders since. but i don't know that they intervene to contradict, say, george w bush's foreign policy making is that he's sitting unhappy with what carter did. i don't know which to be fair. i know, right. i guess i i'm not familiar with that. sorry. and we do we do have another question and forgive me if i'm not reading this one right. i can do my best. can explain if true, the good relationship between bill copley and lyndon larouche placing casey. sorry, bill casey, lyndon larouche and his people. thank you. okay. well, at the time. well, the short is no, but i've been somewhat aware it. and i did go back. i mean, there's no question i've always kept big distance from when the duration is people and i. yeah, but there's no question they,

iran. iran has lost its primary proxy, hezbollah, in terms of its effectiveness as a strike capability. it's missiles have proven to be quite feckless against israeli, u.s., and allied partners in defense. is it inevitable that they go nuclear now? that is the third leg of their deterrence and defense with the other two having proven to be weak. how do you see that you evolving and what advice would you be giving to the incoming administration on how to develop the relationship with iran? >> no doubt, this has not been a good year for iran and we are seeing that play out every single day. i think iran has to make some fundamental choices. one choice it could make and should make is to focus on itself and focus on trying to build it better, more successful company that -- country that delivers for its people which is clearly what most iranians want, and to stop getting involved in these adventures or misadventures throughout the region and beyond. either it will be wise enough to make that c

let's start with iran. this is a terrible blow for iran.lient effectively, the assad regime, of iran. and iran's defensive strategy, or offensive depending on which way you look at it, in the last, well, the whole of this century, the last 20 years or so, is to build this so—called axis of resistance which was an axis involving clients and allies like hezbollah in lebanon and various proxies as well, and that already had been taking a really serious battering because of what israel have been doing in lebanon and also towards iran and the heartfelt support of the americans and now i think they've lost their important ally so for iran this is a disaster, they will have to rethink their approach to their position in the middle east. i don't think the israelis will be happy about what has been going on, having potentially an islamist state on its doorstep. they have moved forces up to the occupied territory, the golan heights. i think that for the wider region and if you think about how the turks occupied northern syria, the americans are up th

iran. the downfall of hezbollah. this was hosted by the council on foreign relations. i don't usually get applause when i walk in, tony. i don't know. i thought it was you might. well welcome, everybody. thank you for being here. it's a really a opportunity to have secretary of blinken with us in last five weeks or so in the. but who's counting? well, who's counting? and the job is a long time friend and member of the council. and we're delighted to have him. mr. secretary, we are meeting at this historic moment where there have been tectonic shifts around the world. we've got wars in europe, in the middle east, africa. we have this unprecedented competition with china. we have the rise of, the global south. we've got pandemic preparedness, all sorts of climate change issues. it's not worth it. hello, harvey. good can you hear me? yeah. sorry. it's like, okay. wendy, can you hear me? yeah, well, we're okay. i will speak more loudly anyway. we're meeting at this time. when? when really, the

>> the regime inside iran is opaque by design. have exact numbers of women inside the notorious prison in tehran. what we do know is the court system inside the country is extremely unjust. people do not necessarily get access to legal representation that they should be entitled to and serious charges are leveled against people, particularly those who challenge the regime on numerous occasions, as we have seen with the nobel laureate who was speaking this week having had a temporary release from inside. she has underscored that she is subject to sentencing almost at whim from the judiciary and a lot of that sentencing is a serious charges that are trumped up by the regime inside iran to target those political dissenters. sumi: more than two years now since the death and the launch of the women life freedom protests. how has the situation for women in iran changed? >> it is a great question and one of the things we have to step back and consider is the theocracy inside iran has been in existence since 1979. the women who have been

i could see some sort of reform within iran?— within iran? i think there a aood within iran? within iran? i think there a good chance - and i - within iran? i think there a good chance - and i would| within iran? i think there a - good chance - and i would point good chance — and i would point towards a silver lining that the conditions of the prison were actually much worse. so it's not good that it was much worse, but the silver lining is that gradually come up with the reporting, with the criticism, with the protests, it actually got better. so where the prison is right now, where the prisoners are allowed to do inside the prison, the limited phone calls they get, the limited legal access they have, the limited access to the outside world, sometimes they can come out on furlough, sometimes they can meet family members — it was actually much worse at the beginning of the revolution when iran was involved in fighting a war with iraq, when it was the post—revolutionary turmoil. the situation was actually much worse, so over the past four decades, it's gotten slowly better onl

iran has been seriously cut down _ east? iran has been seriously cut down to _ east? has been seriously cut down to size in _ east? iran has been seriously cut down to size in terms - east? iran has been seriously cut down to size in terms of l cut down to size in terms of its ability to prop up the axis of resistance. it doesn't mean it is gone, it doesn't mean it is not a going concern but it's not what it once was and this war that broke out after the hamas israel war in october 72023 has decimated iran and its capabilities to reach israel and the wider region. we are hearing about some russian strikes hitting aleppo and we know that russia is a backer of assad so how important still is the russian armed forces, its airforce the russian armed forces, its air force in the russian armed forces, its airforce in particular, in terms of how this new conflict might be playing out? russia's air force might be playing out? russia's airforce in _ might be playing out? russia's air force in particular— might be playing out? russia's air force in particular is - airforce in p

both iran and russia surge to bella assad that iran started indirectly in 2012 come directly in 2013 and russia more directly in 2015. there's that whole host of other groups like the sds, syrian defense under democratic forces for largely but an exclusively kurdish backed by the united states. when the u.s. is looking for a a partner in syria to pick it was a prioritized he would pick to fight assad. it was who the pic to fight this other armed terrorist group that we all know called isis. the fdf and the kurds have led that fight against isis in the region but they're not a the ony group. there was like the free syrian army. that was disaffected assad regime officers that it been disbanded. some of it moved into the syrian national army. those were turkish backed. largely arab and sometimes turkey and rebels, turkish government to use a proxy or auxiliary. these turkish backed forces have been used not just in syria but in of the place of work president erdogan of turkey as a foreign policy interest as well. there is what is left of the iran backed militia infrastructure which up u

that was a historic mistake on iran's park today, iran's main territorial proxy, hezbollah, is also on its back. and only 12 days ago i spoke from the rose garden about the cease fire deal. lebanon, a deal that was only possible because hezbollah has been badly degraded. meanwhile, hamas has been dead badly degraded as well. iran's own military capabilities have been weakened. rand tried two times to attack israel and the united states and built a coalition of countries to directly defend israel to help defeat those attacks. all this made possible for iran and hezbollah to continue to prop up is impossible, i should say, for them to prop up the assad regime. additionally, russia's torturer, assad also failed, and that's because in ukraine, backed by american allies, put up a the waters against invading russian forces, inflicting massive damage on the russian forces, and that is the fresh air, unable to protect its main ally in the middle east. excuse my cold. the upshot for all this is for the first time ever is a russia nor iran or hezbollah could defend this abhorrent regime in syria

israel vis-a-vis iran. it's really created this opportunity which hts and golani have taken advantage of in a sweeping way that i don't think many would have seen even two months ago. >> the timing of, this i mean, the three main backers of the assad regime were hezbollah, russia and iran, and they've all got other things to do right now. i also want to ask you, we've heard -- you mentioned the leader of hts, golani. we've heard essentially what the international community wants to hear from him, that, you know, syria is a very pluralistic society, there are christians, shiite, muslims, even a small jewish population. he said they want to build institutions, they want to have everyone part of this government. they will allow different religious, different opinions. but we've heard that from people before. do you really feel this is the motivation or are you concerned this could lead to a more extreme islamic regime? >> i think everyone is concerned. if you went back to, say, 2014, 2013 when the split betwee

new uavs also from iran. technological expertise from iran and extensive training again from iran. and the result? the number of houthi terrorists has exploded to over 350,000 compared to just 30,000 in 2016. they are a crucial stance that links to iran proxies. iranian support for the houthis violate security council resolutions and 2722. i does an assault on all tenants of sovereignty and international law. let's talk about money. the annual houthi budget is $1.2 billion. from illegal activities, crimes and covert trade in the gulf of aden. much of the money also flows directly from iran. however iran's support proximity to arms and finance, who fees received technical assistance and training. they are trained in iran with expertise in producing missiles, drones and advanced weaponry. training for iranian forces increases their ability to accurately target facilities in the red sea. the key iranian official involved in these terror trainings. high-level iranian advisors such as -- in both of them coordinate with the houthi leader. meanwhile, the u.n. failed to enforce its arms em

they have been rumours about iran, to him? they have been rumours about iran. perhaps — to him?rhaps moscow, _ to him? they have been rumours about iran, perhaps moscow, perhaps - to him? they have been rumours about iran, perhaps moscow, perhaps the - iran, perhaps moscow, perhaps the uae, we know there have been back channel unicode —— communications with these countries in the last few days and hours, but at this point, resident aside does not have many options and is also the chance he may try to hold on or stay within the coastal region where he has always been strong always his traditional heartland, but we will see, the next few days and hours for the first bucket ridging are critical and he is running out of options diplomatically and militarily and politically. talking about those _ militarily and politically. talking about those options, _ militarily and politically. talking about those options, you - militarily and politically. talking about those options, you say i militarily and politically. talkingi about those options, you say he militarily and politically. talkin

iran has some test choices ahead. crumbling. iran has some test choices he ead. crumbling.to see whether he can salvage some of the axis of resistance, or go in another direction. were focused on what the uranium public opinion once, poking you issues at home, ratherthan once, poking you issues at home, rather than these ventures supporting political projects in the region that are falling apart at the moment. what do you think will happen? you say it is remains to be seen whether lessons will be learned seen whether lessons will be lear going in terms of foreign iran going in terms of foreign policy, strategy, ambitions? yeah, i mean, look, the supreme leader�*s call, and the decision of the leadership in the revolutionary guards. we have to remember he has been in power since 1989, for 35 years. and he is essentially stayed on course. his core belief in pushing the united states out of the middle east, looking for ways to essentially bring about the end of israel, these have been consistently part of his agenda. is he going to make it, make a u—turn? it�*s unlikely. could

i imauined ,, . . . imagined russia and iran will sa to imagined russia and iran will say to turkey.magined russia and iran will say to turkey, what are - imagined russia and iran will say to turkey, what are you i say to turkey, what are you doing? you have upset the whole chest board, turkey has supported islamist rebels in the country. i'm sure they will not say they are behind the move currently but clearly someone has given them some training. they are well disciplined. the syrian army has crumbled. syria, the regime has crumbled. syria, the regime has survived, the arab spring process and the civil war that ensued largely thanks to intervention by russia and iran. russia with its air force, don't forget they have the use of the port of practice on the mediterranean which is a strategic asset for the russian navy. and it has got a very active air force there. russia's intention is to win the war in ukraine. this is a very one unwelcome distraction for president putin. iran has also supported its ally, by giving them a lot of trips. revolution regards advisers and weapons and so

2023 has become really a huge boomerang before iran. many opportunities have radium in syria and lebanon for the defeat of terrorist proxies around the middle east but also dangerous. some of the elements and the rebels who have thrown al-assad in the army are associated with al qaeda, ices, extremists. israel has been bombing chemical in syria so that these weapons will not fall into the wrong hands. the u.s. military meanwhile bombing asis basis in syria to ensure ices does not reemerge to take over syria. >> trey: matthew miller from the state department and i will ask about on the other oth side. >> i would hope the government of iran have looked at the failed policy of pursuit and choose the path of de-escalation and better relations with neighbors and not try to continue to found the instability and support terrorism. and undem unr no illusions they would have a change of heart bue if they can pursue a differentde nuclear policy, we have made clear we will not allow the government of iran to obtain weapons. >> trey: ambassador, he

for taking on iran and strongly backing israel to the point that iran is now in decline. unable to support. suffering tremendous loss. >> that is fantasyland. >> the president for the last four years and we've seen our enemies decline. >> i travel the world for my job we want moral clarity from the president of the united states. all due respect offering joe biden and moral clarity. donald trump has done more to bring peace to this world. >> he is not in office. going through the election with you, you know that president biden has paid a huge price. the support of israel and willingness to go after iran. >> over the objections of lighted. >> that is just one of the many places that has not settled yet. the clock is ticking on whether or not there will be the release of the hostages. working around the clock and saying it is a legacy. to the issue of these nominees, republicans that are supporting president trump to say you need to get in line. why do republicans insist on snatching through the jaws of victory. he went on to say what do we see in the swampy is of american

, who ruled iran between 1953 and 1979. the assad family has been in power from 1971 up to 2024. >> syria could go both two ways, becky. and you know syria very well. one way syria could go basically descends into all out social, political, tribal and religious upheaval like libya like yemen. uh community standing up various communities and taking arms into their own hands. another way is that syria could really begin the process of healing. this will take a long time healing in terms of state building in terms, in terms of nation building, because syria has been ruled, uh autocratically. and brutally for almost you know, from 1971 till the present. and i think the reason why i'm a bit hopeful because the islamist opposition in particular, has been trying to reassure syrians all communities, in the sense that syria for all syrians in the sense don't ever damage, uh, government properties, in the sense that basically they are really running a very tight show. but we have to wait and see, as you know, because in iran the situ

what do you think this all means for iran and how do you think iran may respond?ay, this is a geostrategic game changer. there is a huge new situation emerging because iran, for 20 years, through its proxies, was advancing through the arab world. the shia crescent, king abdul ofjordan called it — iraq, syria, lebanon, yemen, gaza. and most of these have collapsed. most importantly, hezbollah, where iran put a lot of emphasis. iran's offensive offensive capability, missile systems, were seen to be ineffective in its ability to defend against israel, effectively zero, and now syria has gone and i cannot overemphasise how important a development this is for the region. israel, of course, also shares a border with syria we know its troops are going to be staying through the winter inside of what is meant to be a buffer zone between the two nations. do you think that israel also sees this as a bit of an opportunity perhaps? it does. first of all, the destruction of the syrian air defence systems, which the israelis finished off last couple of days, gives them extraordi

this election was terrible for iran. i think iran is incredibly weak their proxies are decimated.s. hezbollah the entire leadership has been killed, aside in syria has fallen yet another iran a proxy. iran is in a disastrous position and come january 20 i am confident donald trump will return to a maximum pressure which means the money for iran, it is going away. think the right result i believe the right result for america and for israel is regime change in iran. this ayatollah is a theocratic lunatic who leads a chance of death to americ american death o israel. i believe him and i think the people of iran want to be free of not say we go to war with iran what i am saying though is that we use every bit of economic pressure and diplomatic pressure to put pressure on the regime because for this ayatollah to fall would dramatically enhance american national security. this ayatollah right now today is actively trying to murder donald trump has paid for hitmen to murder the incoming president of the united states this ayatollah needs to go. mark: you exactly right. the people there

also, iran, and you had hezbollah, as well, helping on the ground. this alliance of support, though, over the last few years , in particular over the last year when it comes to iran and its proxies has been distracted by other wars, other conflicts. russia is very much involved with launching the war in ukraine and its troops very much absorbed by that conflict that is hearing it's -- nearing its third year now and at the same time you've had the war in lebanon and israel's ability to significantly degrade, and hezbollah's fighting capabilities and iran, too, massively under pressure and also with attention distracted elsewhere and so it seems that the combination of that really did expose the weakness of assad sexual control when it came to defending this extraordinarily organized in terms of their training and ability to move systematically, city by city, then on to damascus by these rebel forces and so yes, a new era opening now in syria and across the middle east but as history has shown us, when it comes to the collapse of strong mineral in the

i am a woman who is who wants to realize women's rights in iran. so i think this is exactly where i should be. >> and narges, one final question. you are writing a memoir, is that right? what do you what do you want to send to the world in your book? >> a feminist, a dabo swinney. look, this is not the memoirs of an individual. i have tried to illustrate the changes and developments that have been taking place in iranian society, and what the iranian society has witnessed, especially with regards to women. my memoir is an attempt by me to show what has been happening in iran in the past decades. the women have been the ones who have been subjected to the most repression in the country. they have resisted nevertheless. but this resistance was not only to the government, but it's also been a resistance to the age old traditions that exist in countries including iran, countries in the middle east in general and there these women have paid a substantial price for that. it has been a resistance, accompanied by hope for a bright future. the women have be

for taking on russia and iran and in fact strongly backing israel to the point iran is now in declineable to support a side. russia in decline and its tro troops. >> i love you but that is fantasyland. >> i think he's been the president for the last four years and we've seen our enemies decline and a lot of this isn't going to buy the waco to trump. >> of travel the world for my job and what i hear constantly from heads of states and ambassadors as we want moral clarity from the president of the united states and there's no way in the world with all due respect my friend that joe biden offers moral clarity. donald trump has done more to bring peace to this world and he hasn't even been inaugurated. >> he's not been in office and i think politically having gone through the election we know in fact president biden is paid a huge price for his unalloyed support of israel and willingness to go after iran. >> nineteen yahoo into hezbollah under the advice of biden and jake sullivan. >> shannon: that's one of places that's not there yet and the clock is ticking on weather or not there's goi

, the arabs and others to get a nuclear deal that puts iran, puts puts iran's nuclear program back in the box. now, this would be kind of interesting because it was trump who pulled out of the last nuclear deal, but maybe he can come around this time with the situation iran finds itself in and actually deliver a nuclear deal that curbs iran's nuclear ambitions for the long term. >> he reversed himself on bitcoin so he can reverse himself on iran. what are the you know, there are obviously opportunities in the middle east, but it's also a pretty dangerous situation. turkey might invade parts of syria. the israelis have taken a beachhead. when you look at syria now, what are you what are you worried about? >> the single biggest concern i have is the resurgence of i.s.i.s.. i.s.i.s. loves vacuums. and what we see in syria right now are areas that are basically ungoverned because of the fall of the assad regime, and i.s.i.s. is doing everything it can to try and take advantage of those to regrow its capability to threaten europe, threaten the united states, threaten americans all over the

now she's in touch with the children starting school into iran. i just realized how i feel so distant from this country um the people and how unfair it is to to be around in girl like any or iranian girl in iran. but living here and to have the privileges i do have here, which they wish to have there. i've had contact with this girl. now, since the pandemic and i said i wanted to actually travel during these years to to go there and to maybe give them trespass and give them workshop to teach them and maybe have a collaboration. she's actually answering we're trying to to have a phone call. so but now she has to rehearse at performance from the world renowned choreographer. peanut pulse stravinsky's the rise of spring, [000:00:00;00] the or she missed the train every day practice until its perfect classical dance as demanding physical work. it's a lot of care. and within this profession, it's a full day job. even if the end product is made to look so easy, the life of the valley rena is not what it seems. places of valerie in us. it's a lot of this

hi, vivian tells her about the done school into iran. there are a lot of families that like secretly send their kids to this. her school to like to, to practice dance and music. yeah. i mean i, i'm looking really up to her that she's able to do this for children there, you know, and super risky. what she does and, and she's willing to do this tomorrow she aims to cool the done school. well i see a lot of just children that look like me, like it just reminds me of my childhood, you know, like i when i was like a little girl in school and the practicing dance. and cuz, you know, i have pictures like when i, when i was in school and i was the only, you know, dark haired girl with light, darker skin and all everyone else was more like blown the light skin you know. and just like seeing like a group of the same girls you know, how much in michigan use it? hold on. okay. like like how i was when i was young, you know, i just, i get really emotional actually seeing this. it reminds me of my childhood, but also to see that you know, there's so m

not just between iraq or iran. so they're always negotiating for long-term energy treatize in any sort. it's always very complicated. but this optimism that i'm not usually an opt myst person usually. but i draw that based on historical movement of iraq towards both expanding the capacity and diversifying the sources. definitely, challenges are there. i do remember a few years ago, with one of the iraqi energy minister, we were discussing even the domestic policy issues of iraq. the policy and infrastructure has been a question. so challenges are there. and that's why, perhaps, the speed of progress is not as it was expected. iraq has been flaring, natural gas, for instance. or having a deficit of power generation for long time now. but as long as, i would say, things are moving forward, despite all of these challenges, i would remain positive. >> great, thanks. >>> and thanks to everyone, for starting to get the questions in. we will go through to julian and matt and a couple of other questions. but we'll try to g

iran itself is on its heels. what can we do now to deal with the nuclear challenge, to try to reduce or cut off iran's aid proxies. what do we do about the regime itself? one other thought. i was just in saudi arabia. the conversations i had with officials there was, for the most part, you americans have to get over your hostility toward assad. you have to somehow normalize relations with him. the alternatives are worse. what's interesting to me is how much people misread the so- called stability and what this tells us about regimes. what was it about him? my own instinct here is he never really institutionalized it. so it was very brittle. china is an authoritarian regime but it's not brittle. it's institutionalized. the most brutal regime, in some ways, is russia. because putin has destroyed institutions there and he himself must be watching events a little uneasily. have the question of iran. there almost in between. there are some institutions there but it's also pretty top- heavy. can i expect they are havin

he can't go back to iran. he is stuck. >> i wanted to ask about the future of spying and maybe what you might write fiction about. i read some of your stuff. thespycraft of the old days. you are under surveillance. current spying has to be completely different based on the digital revolution. people aren't going to stop. what will it look like? >> it's a good question. there's always signals intelligence and human intelligence right back to the war, intercepting telegrams, reading people's mail. it has to be combined. even if you have a digital trace on someone, you still need to have somebody in the room to say when they're on the telephone. you still need to have somebody who can sit opposite your agent and work out whether they are lying to you, whether they are on the other side. human intelligence -- the digital story is so huge -- is more important than ever. it's rarer. it doesn't happen nearly as much. recruiting foreign agents -- you are right. we have a digital footprint from the moment we pick up a

this leads to the next issue i want to discuss which is iran. over the last few years, we've seen dramatic developments in iran's nuclear program. when we came into office, this administration, iran's nuclear program was constrained and as a result, as everyone knows of the previous administration's departure from the joint comprehensive plan of action which would put strict limits on tehran's nuclear development. over the next years that followed iran irresponsibly overplayed its hand and would engage only through highly ineffective indirect talks and push for unrealistic concessions that prevented a new deal from being reached. ultimately, iran then walked away from the negotiating table altogether and began operating more advanced centrifuges and enriching more uranium. over the last year there's been another shift. since hamas' terrorist attacks on october 7, we've seen iran's two primary regional deterrent capabilities, proxies like the assad regime, hezbollah, and the houthi and expanded missile force, significantly degraded or less effect

this was iran's great entry into the arab world. they had they had as a client one of the major arab countries. and now they don't any longer fareed, i think there's three big questions for iran. >> and number one is, is this the end of iran's axis of resistance in the middle east? as you mentioned, syria has been iran's only stable ally since the 1979 revolution. and can iran continue to finance and arm lebanese hezbollah? without syria, because syria has been the bridge to hezbollah? i think what the iranian regime will try to do is forge a partnership with syria's new leaders based in common enmity towards the united states and israel. that's a big question whether they can do that. second question is whether what the impact on iran's other resistance partners, namely in iraq and in houthi, with the and in yemen, with the houthis and finally, what impact does this have on iran internally the iranian regime is also deeply unpopular is the collapse of the assad regime going to embolden anti-government protesters inside iran? >> nat

and iran includes hezbollah. and all these other iranian backed militia groups and i mean, imagine what this means for europe. imagine what it means for germany, where there's a million syrians that are now packing up and ready to go home excited to go home because it's safe because they're no longer arrested for no reason, tortured to death chemical weapons used on them. and you're talking about a 14 million people displaced between internally and externally um, this is this is a great day of liberation for a country that has been under a tyrant. and his terrorist sponsoring allies, russia and assad, for way too long um, and it's just a wonderful day. >> and what is yours is a humanitarian organization so i want to read something that was just aired on television in syria this person was introduced as a commander, a leader of the operation to overthrow assad and he said, we addressed all the sects of syria. syria is for everyone without exception, for the sunni, for the druze, for the alawite. we don't deal with