jonathan f.: i'm with you. jonathan g.: that is golub's view.: when did the fed ever forecast a recession? it's just not there business. jonathan g.: they do it with a year delay, they do it after the fact. [laughter] i get that, but you have to use some framework to say where you think the world is going? if u.s. me with the most important issue is on inflation and growth, we have incredibly tight labor markets, which is leaving the consumer really confident in their ability to find work and that leads people to be willing to go out and overextend themselves on credit and also means you have high wage inflation. you add those two things together and it is all about the labor market and that is my take independent of what the forecasting says. jonathan f.: it's good to catch up. as always, jonathan golub of credit suisse. i will give john this, the retail store this week, far more nuanced than first look. lisa: absolutely, especially because of home depot. and to a lesser extent lows as he was saying. there is clearly a margin issue we have to g

jonathan: it is cpi wednesday. this is bloomberg surveillance. i am jonathan ferro. equity futures up 1%. the big one at 8:30. tom: the last time we were at this inflation level olivia newton john and "let's get physical, physical." we will find if we actually get physical on lower inflation. jonathan: if only you could see bramo's face right now. what are we hoping for? hopefully peak inflation is behind us. core hopefully coming in, that is not the expectation. tom: we are down to the micro rollover of inflation. looking month over month. must watch, must listen for global wall street, culminated by william dudley later in the show. jonathan: bill dudley coming up. his view on how high do rates need to go on the federal reserve, probably higher. lisa: if that is the view how do we explain the rally we are seeing in treasuries, in equities? there are number of different expectations inflation will not come in as hot and i do not know if i buy that. i do not know if this is any sort of statement rather than a pause. jonathan: do get the feel like the market is shifti

jonathan: joining us now to discuss is tony rodriguez and jonathan.et's just reflect on the volatility this week and equities and bonds. i am looking at the nasdaq 100 which is flat on the week. the s&p 500 is flat on the week. your reflections, your reaction to this week? >> the roller coaster is giving me motion sickness. i cannot keep directionality on rates or equities straight. like your introduction was saying, it is a combination of many fact. it's not just one thing, it is financial conditions -- every component of financial conditions is showing off tightening. it is higher real yield. it is across the board. it is hard to get a handle on what exactly is going on. i think the bank of england was the first central bank to a knowledge they might be heading into a stagflationary environment. the question for the u.s. and europe is are we headed the same way? jonathan: tony, what is your take? tony: week on week it is flat. the volatility is clearly extraordinarily high. liquidity is declining and i think all of that comes down to the fact that w

jonathan: good morning. this is bloomberg surveillance on tv and radio. i am jonathan ferro. futures down more than .1% on the s&p. it is all about the squeeze on this consumer. kailey: the squeeze on consumer. 9% in the united kingdom. it is a squeeze across all. you cannot parse out energy. it is about core cpi and let's call it a double of what we have seen pre-covid. jonathan: one of the most important notes on wall street came from j.p. morgan. cruel summer: white u.s. gasoline prices could break above six dollars later this year. that is a bit -- that is a big deal. kailey: just got invited to the morgan call in london on oil. they walk through the why we are going to $150 a barrel. the answer is jp morgan and others see oil prices higher because of conventional analysis. jonathan: how much does this fed need to squeeze? lisa: and how much they willing to? jay powell said fight for for credibility. he came out saying we will not take a nuanced view of inflation. that is the bedrock of this economy. if we do not have that we have not done our job. jonathan: let me throw

jonathan: futures up .4% on the s&p. bloomberg. ♪ >> a very different environment where the bed is trying to get to neutral much more quickly. >> the fed want to stop being a source of volatility. >> how aggressive the central banks are expected to be over the next year. >> look across the globe, global forecast for growth are being revised down. >> it is clear that things are way out of control. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: a fed day on radio and television.

jonathan christie said no. you are not seeing the forced sales yet, which is shocking given the level of declines in the feeling of a slow grind we have not felt since 2002. jonathan: chris harvey of wells fargo would call that the cathartic puke. lisa: face ripped off. cathartic puke. [laughter] we have had a couple of weeks, haven't we? tom: let's talk drawdown. this is futures dodd -- futures drawdown. the nasdaq just under -25%. jonathan: let's call it what it is. it is a bear market. the nasdaq down another 2%. the s&p off 1.6%. for our audience worldwide, from a beautiful new york city, looking at an ugly equity market again. ritika: keeping up-to-date with news from around the world. vladimir putin justified his faltering invasion of ukraine as a battle comparable to the fight against nazi germany. he spoke at the annual victory day celebration in red square marking the defeat of germany in 1945. he said the conflict with ukraine and nato members was inevitable. the dollar dominance continues. the greenb

jonathan: something has changed. typically when we talk about growth risk before, the curve was flatter, yields were lower. tom: a different regime. jonathan: the framework that worked in the last 10 years is not working now will stop lisa: people are worried about inflation. jonathan: 3.18 on the 10 year. from new york, this is bloomberg. ritika: keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world. vladimir putin justified his faltering invasion of ukraine as a battle comparable to the fight against nazi germany. he spoke at the annual victory day celebration in red square marking the defeat of germany in 1945. he says the conflict in ukraine and the nato members setting the country weapons was inevitable and president zelenskyy responded on twitter, saying the russian army is dying not defending their country but trying to occupy a number. the dollar dominance continues. extended gains into a third day. china's lockdown accelerating inflation and the worsening outlook for global growth has boosted demand for the

jonathan: here we go. tom: are we in trouble? jonathan: jordan, thank you. jordan rochester.: you guys are nuts, could you translate for we mere mortals? jonathan: when you have had a long night, you get some, say, indian food. a really spicy dish is a vindaloo. curry. spicy dish. tom: what is this, little britain? jonathan: are we done? futures, negative have a percent on the s&p. tom: i'm just going to get the value meal and coffee. jonathan: that is not what you do in the u.k. tom: i go to dunkin' donuts and get a cup of coffee. jonathan: maybe you want a meal. lisa: you could walk an extra thousand steps. tom: rochester was out of control there. jonathan: you were out of control, too. tom: wearing a trade? jonathan: we had a lot of people, the show and talk about the move to 1.20. they said rates would go back to zero, but what we have experienced in the u.k., rates go up, but growth expectations come lower. currency has been hammered. tom: i will tell you this, john, i am wearing a triple leveraged cash trade. jonathan: cannot take you anywhere. really cannot. tom: you d

jonathan: lose-lose.hat is sometimes when narratives shift the other way, but i don't want to be the person that tries to call that. the ecb next month, i think they have one of the hardest decisions as a central bank because the downside risk to growth is now. it is materializing. it is not may be in the future. it is happening at the moment. the inflation rate is too high. what on earth did they do? christian: especially because -- lisa: especially because this inclusion is the wrong kind. it is coming from services. people are able to charge more. not the same in europe where it is energy, it is imports, and the euro has depreciated. i think i would rather be chairman powell because i've got a second term. french hill told me that i would. jonathan: there you go. we think that is going to happen today. that is a very good answer. let's get you some single name moves and say good morning to romaine. romaine: we have been in bear market territory on an individual and aggregate basis for some time now. ta

jonathan: good morning.a little bit lower, down by .6%, the nasdaq down by almost three quarters of a percent. the s&p up by almost three percentage points yesterday, biggest since the spring of 2020. credit suisse lowering its price target to 4900. still seeing an upside of 14.9%. the upside is you the story. he still foresees 14%. that is big. tom: it will be interesting to see how people adjust. you wonder how they treat into the weekends. jonathan: i am looking forward to catching up with john later. folks, john is correct. the fed is ante. that is latin for getting out in front of the trend, which is codified within fed history. ex post is after the fact. surveillance latin is important. for example, we do latin and we like hypothesis. jonathan: can you translate that? tom: i need a glass of tang. we look to the weekend and are wrapped up in tottenham versus liverpool. i do not know the latin pronunciation. van dyck is the key for liverpool? jonathan: he is a fantastic defender. tom: they have to get by

jonathan: thanks for that, tom. tom: good to see that. jonathan: very good to see.: john, i am going to look at this historic day and apple says it all. there are so many different stories across the market coverage to make one blanket simply sick statement about the markets and where we are with the central bank is off the mark. jonathan: the federal reserve has to come through with a massive move. they are set to do qt as well. we have vanishing reduction lead running potentially at twice the pace in 2017, 2019. that is a big time around -- that is a big change. lisa: a lot of people are trying to grapple with that. jonathan: a big conversation coming up. jamie dimon, the ceo of chase. she will do that in route 7 minutes time. features down by 4%. used to saying down over the last couple of months. jonathan: live from new york city this morning. good morning on tv and radio for our audience worldwide. this is "bloomberg surveillance" . on the nasdaq, about 2/10 of 1%. the last time the fed met on march 16, since then we are down four and 6% on the nasdaq. equities

jonathan: fill in on that if you can. let's talk about the supply issue and access to credit >> i think he's right. jonathan: she's frozen and we will come back to her and a couple of minutes time. thank you for sticking with this. high-yield bond sales are plunging this year, the lowest volume since 2009 and we will get more on that next. ♪ jonathan: lot bond sales are having weekly volume stretch above 28. bond sales are hitting $22 billion. finally, an issuer breaking through in the u.s. jump bond market. $1.2 billion in the first high-yield deal of the month. mohamed el-erian weighed in on the current conditions. >> it's an evolution from an inflation interest rate concern to a growth in credit concern. that just tells you that the market is going sequentially through risk factors. those of us who grew up in emerging economies have seen this movie before. jonathan: we have lost megan and hopefully we can reestablish that connection in a few minutes. accessing credit, we saw that play out in 2018. the high-yield market

jonathan: alex webb, thank you.ot has changed in the last couple of weeks in the market and there has been a degree twitter stock relative to other tech names and we are finding out what this is worth in this market. elon musk would not be the first walking away from a deal if he does, he would not be the first of the bag -- back of the big market. covid happens, the lockdown happened, there was a deal that went into shock -- shut down. they turned around and said maybe we need to rethink the price. i wonder how much of this is going on. it is difficult to talk about this because you are asking people to work out with someone is thinking -- what summit is leaking. lisa: when musk came out with his first proposal, people thought it was high for each share. the fact that board members took it without looking for competing offers also sent a strong message. could he be having, not buyer's remorse, but remorse for the bid in terms of how big it was? jonathan: down 20% in the premarket, the agreed deal was 5420. -- 54.20

jonathan: and we have to wait? you have to wait until further out to the end of the year to find out the answer to those questions. tom: the elephant in the room to me and particularly the china watchers is the national party congress where president xi has to be codified again for another bout of xi china. i believe that is in november. jonathan: at least not until fall later in the year. lisa: in the meantime, there are some clues and we got that from the inflation data overnight from china that came out and showed he came in higher and hotter than expected but for the wrong reasons. food prices rising. things that people cannot get because of the lockdown. people going out and spending falling off of the cliffs so you have deflation there. this shows more of a picture and we might be looking at the granularity here. jonathan: just one request from an audience number. can you make tk stop singing please? can we achieve that this morning? i think a rendition of "let's get physical" is disturbing people. tom: me as

jonathan: this line, tom ash [laughter] lisa: just going to move on. jonathan: thinly capitalized. to lisa's point, is this a peloton story, or other other palatine's out there? tom: in the old days maybe they would never have gone public. $4 billion of total revenue, the margin -- margin is nonexistent. is this a publicly-traded company with a persistent cash flow? maybe. when i am on my peloton i get a exhilarating motivation. lisa: it carries over to the morning. jonathan: would you allocate any of this -- any of your cash to this stock? peloton down 17.5% in the pre-market. equity futures up. we have a bounce. from new york city, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: keeping up-to-date with the first word, i'm ritika gupta. president biden will highlight his efforts to stem inflation in a speech today. it comes at a time when soaring prices threaten democrats's chances of holding onto congress. the president will draw a contrast with a republican proposal to raise taxes. just in time for summer driving season, u.s. gasoline and diesel prices have set a record, according to aaa. gasoline

jonathan: thank you so much.ia tell you the story about how real madrid is the greatest team in the world? tom: i think i missed that. jonathan: they will talk about that on bloomberg radio. tom: she was like boom. should they bring gareth back? he's exciting. jonathan: this is how tk determines whether they are good or bad footballer as to whether they pick the ball from far out. lisa: this is where they use their foot another hand to project the football. jonathan: he is a tremendous golfer. i wonder whether he thinks about taking that a full-time. maybe to do that instead of playing football. futures this morning, good morning, down about a half of 1%. yields are higher by seven or eight basis points. tom: what is the price of a gallon of gas in capri? jonathan: it's probably pretty expensive. lisa: not in dollars. tom: a gallon of gas in -- in capri is $7.69. ♪ so many people are overweight now and asking themselves, "why can't i lose weight?" for most, the reason is insulin resistance, and they don't even kn

jonathan: yeah, ok.up 1.5%. ♪ at fidelity, your dedicated advisor will help you create a comprehensive wealth plan for your full financial picture. with the right balance of risk and reward. so you can enjoy more of...this. this is the planning effect. >> right now we are just bordering on calling for a recession. >> if we did get one there is a lot more room for spreads to widen and even exacerbate there's losses we have alrea

jonathan: thank you. right now this administration and society faces some real wealth destruction coming out of this equity market. you have the issue with energy prices and gas prices. this is a really tough moment. tom: it is a white house moment and a global moment. it will be huge. i was on the phone yesterday with the world economic forum talking about this set of totally unusual -- actually i caught a person -- i cut a person off in the middle of the conversation and i know you were shocked that i did that. i said do you understand that there is a war in ukraine, there is? here's the data point that sums up the risk. euro swiss e is four standard rate -- standard is -- deviations from plus or minus strong swiss which is a new safe haven. jonathan: joining us is max kennedy. your point, your lead point this morning is that this growth is right now, not 12 months out, it is right now. you also have to help me with your s&p 500 price target has come in but it is still 5.5 fifth -- 5.450 so can you reco

jonathan: could you give me a song?uld like to do that, but if i did it on radio i would be in trouble. ♪ >> right now, we have an incredibly strong economic outlook. inflation is a concern and i agree with that. >> conflation is a 50-50 bet. the timing is preferred down -- >> sometimes it makes

jonathan: your questioning it. lisa: just saying. jonathan: were down .25%. tom: i just killed that. jonathan: the estimate in our survey is about 380. in new york, this is bloomberg. as a business owner, your bottom line is always top of mind. so start saving by switching to the mobile service designed for small business: comcast business mobile. flexible data plans mean you can get unlimited data or pay by the gig. all on the most reliable 5g network. with no line activation fees or term contracts... saving you up to $500 a year. and it's only available to comcast business internet customers. so boost your bottom line by switching today. comcast business. powering possibilities.™ jonathan: live from new york city, good morning. here's the price action. government payrolls are two hours away. equity futures are down .2% on s&p. nasdaq down about .33%. it is felt bad this year because it is bad this year. take of america out with this stat. nasdaq is at 877% bear market. that is the carnage and destruction taking place at the index level. it is been terrible

would you like jonathan: -- jonathan: would you like to explain that to our next guest?o collin martin, fixed income strategist for charles schwab financial research. they look at their bond portfolio monthly. they are going to look at the computer screen and go, what happened? how do they claw their way back with yield up, price down big time? collin: we do think it is going to be difficult for them to claw their way back, but you are right, that is the most common question we are getting. it is not just the shock of seeing the price declines. it is what do we do now. the unfortunate news we have to break to them is that we don't necessarily see a rebound in their bond mutual funds because a lot of our clients are likely holding etf's and mutual funds. something you all touched on before in terms of how much lower can yields go if we get a risk off environment, we just don't see that much room to go lower with inflation so high in the fed likely to hike aggressively. so unfortunately we can't undo the past and the core performance we have seen this year, but the good ne

jonathan: you sound almost bullish. lisa: it is not bullish, it is the reason why there is so much disagreement in people -- so much disagreement. tom: what is going on here is the hope and prayer of gloom destruction. forget about demand destruction. we are looking at surveillance gloom destruction. this morning i go, look at the results. i look back 40, 50 years. the drawdown is really not all that bad. if we -- have we had a couple of harsh weeks? yes. sorry, it is not gloom, it is not catharsis. jonathan: don't try to paint me as the gloomy one. tom: johnny, what is profound here is that prince charles is sitting in for the queen, has dimension the market. jonathan: i doubt it, bulimia finish the thought. it is easy for the southside to keep saying we are overweight. the tape is doing the talking for us right now. the s&p is down 16% year-to-date. the nasdaq 100 is down 26% year today. bonds have been battered. people with money in the market are losing out. when i sit here and see the southside keep saying we're st

jonathan: you are waiting? tom: i am waiting. jonathan: that is a shot glass, not a mug.: we sold out of those eight years ago. jonathan: teaches positive by 1.7. lissa asking the most important question of the interview, just a much scope is there to take more leverage? this is an argument that has been made repeatedly that household balance sheets are stronger this time and they have more space and because of that the fed has to go higher. that is what separates them. lisa: michelle edifying that idea saying, that is true and if the fed worried about consumer demand, they will have to slow things faster than they are because they are still taking out credit and spending. jonathan: will get the chief economist at goldman sachs, coming up shortly. from new york city, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: elon musk causing more uncertainty on whether he well actually by twitter. he said he won't move ahead with the takeover unless twitter can prove that bought make up fewer -- bots make 5%. he says he thinks there are more. twitter says they are going to make it happen at the price

jonathan: basically.: the bottom line is at gunpoint you say you are taking off x days avoid you are doing, we will shut down your phone and security and computer, just do it. jonathan: you are sounding european i've got to say. tom: what is a holiday, two weeks? jonathan: two weeks i think consecutive should be forced on everyone. if you get paid leave without a doubt. tom: right now maria tadeo in brussels with us for the interview with ukraine foreign minister. maria, what did we learn in the interview? what was the distinction that mattered? >> there are two things he made clear. they were disappointed by the fact they didn't get the treatment sweden and finland cat when it comes to nato and the past hope is joining european union. the other takeaway is the peace talks with russia are over. they had been on the phone for weeks but now if you listen, he made it clear we don't want any type of cease-fire. what we want is a big victory. making it clear to russia do not try again. lisa: we had the idea of

jonathan: dana, thank you.: did you know that these sweatshirts, i thought if you bought a luxury sh it is n -- a luxury sweatshirt it does not shrink in the wash. lisa: can we put to bed the idea that women spend so much more than men? [laughter] jonathan: who was insinuating they did? lisa: that is typically the stereotype. jonathan: i would never suggest such a thing. [laughter] jonathan: seconds away from economic data and america. good morning. live on radio and on tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance." equity futures up 115% on the s&p 5 -- 1.5% on the s&p 500. with some economic data, here's mike mckee. michael: it looks like americans are spending, if not a little bit less than they had been anticipated to spend, with retail sales on a month over month basis up 0.9%. that is stronger than the month of march, which had been revised already up to 0.7%. it is a little bit less than the present that was anticipated by economists. the retail sales is up 0.6%, half roughly of what it was in march. retail sales

jonathan: that sums up the fear.t was can griffin -- that was ken griffin speaking at the milken conference. that is a decision most people in this market do not want them to have to make. futures on the s&p 500 unchanged . the nasdaq 100 unchanged as well. everything unchanged, seemly. crude -0.7%. euro-dollar has had a look at 1.04 over the last couple of days. hanging on to 1.5 now. tom: i think the vix still shows a tension out there even with that recovery inequities -- recovery in equities. i can't do a thing with my bowtie today. jonathan: what are you trying to do with it? tom: i just want to get it on an even keel. lisa: biden struggled with that as well biden struggled with that as well. tom: did you see the president? jonathan: did you get home ok? i never heard from you. tom: well, what stays in washington stays in washington. joe mathieu with us now, at the dinner this saturday, 14 tables away from me, front and center with the president. an equally divided washington, fractured this morning by this stor

jonathan: you can call it gas.p 6% and diesel is up even more and these are real price increases but they're not because of jeff bezos. tom: i don't understand soccer, you win a game off of a sure penalty shot? jonathan: sometimes that's how it happens. tom: it's ridiculous. lisa: it's the american dream. jonathan: futures on the s&p 500 down about a quarter of 1%. this is bloomberg. ritika: keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world, this is first word. germany plans to stop importing russian oil i the end of the year. german officials are confident they can solve logistical problems in the next few months. their consumption has declined to 12% down from 35%. saudi aramco posted its profits and followed big oil rivals and reap working earnings in the first quarter due to surging oil prices. it's become the most valuable company. the u.s. justice department is invest -- is investigating a mass killing in buffalo. the shooting left 10 people dead and three wounded in 11 people shot were black. a white ma

this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. jonathan:

taylor: -- jonathan: you can make an offer. lisa: chump change. jonathan: chump change.now we're talking about. tom: you know, it's like them walking away from the todd's. jonathan: do you remember what goldman's price target was on twitter before? it was 30. and the price target was 30. in the free market, we are in the 30's. about 38 .70. tom: folks off-camera, twitter pros are heated he is overpaying. jonathan: lisa, there were a group of analysts that believed this stock was heading south. they had a sale at a price target in the 30's. lisa: they thought perhaps elon musk could bring his brilliance to the company and they could bring it forward and he could actually get it done. but there has always been a huge margin of skepticism in the market and it has gotten super wide at this point. does he even intend on buying it or was there other motivation? these are some of the questions as he looks to get financing and seems to be approaching this with a less calculated view. jonathan: a dangerous business to work out what people are thinking. what if he is right? what i

jonathan: $104 on wti. we saw big moves on the u.s. 10 year, through 3% for the first time since 2018. your 10 year yield in the u.s. right now coming in three basis points to 2.957. starting to see some euros strength come back through euro-dollar. tom: stephen carter inflammatory here. leakers are liars. we will have to get that out here on the issue in america of the moment. right now we stay on plan with economics, finance, and investment, yes, international relations. marvin loh, senior global macro strategist at state street. on shareholder friendly initiatives, which is my core belief that corporations will adapt to what is handed to them, how will corporations adapt to what the fed gives them? marvin: certainly the earnings profile is still supportive, so they do have civility ultimately. they've restructured their balance sheet to a point where the short-term rate impacts on the balance sheets are limited, so just to say that they are going to stand by the sideline and may not be able to address an

jonathan: thank you. with last week, the burden just the presiding sentiment is bostwick and now them taking the mainframe. how aggressively can they go to go easy and not hard? tom: it's an incredibly important meeting today. this is a classic photo of a tennis player, alan greenspan in an oval office type meeting. jonathan: you think chairman powell lying down in the oval office? tom: this is vice president cheney. this is a classic photo of the tennis player alan greenspan working his back. i guess he had a terrible back. jonathan: a difficult moment for this white house. about 15 minutes ago, it's about the optics. tom: it's about the optics, yes, but much more. it's this huge, once-in-a-lifetime crisis we have had three times in 15 years, the great financial crash. we have the pandemic and that we've got a war in ukraine linked into the china lockdown. jonathan: and leadership all over the place. we've seen it from company to company and industry to industry where they are struggling to judge where t

jonathan: how busy have you been? jerome: very, very busy. jonathan: that's what i was thinking.hen was the last time you were this busy? jerome: 2015 and 2016, and that was the exact type of market where we had rising interest rates, people were feel for -- were fearful of where the fed was going. the impact of rate hikes on the market wasn't exactly clear. yet investors were looking for a salve. they were looking for a way to really immunize their portfolios . tom: how do you call your way back from a 12% price decline, full faith and credit? jerome: you effectively look at ways to minimize where you want the interest rate curve, look at ways to mid my the interest rate risk and credit risk within portfolios, and not necessarily reach. stay in high-quality. there's the ways you can continue to add carry to your portfolios. jonathan: great to catch up, as always. jerome schneider of pimco. futures down 0.8% on the s&p come on the nasdaq, negative by more than 1%. target heading south and further south. down 22.6% in early trading. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: keeping you up to d

jonathan: it is nuts.hink we've got to be careful with the line which because they are not forecasting a recession per se. the definition, two consecutive quarters of negative growth. they are essentially forecasting stagnation and a small contraction next year, but i think the bottom line here is this is every thing we have been talking about the year so far, which is upside risk to inflation, downside risk to growth, and a central bank caught in a classic dilemma. what do you do about it? at first look, they don't really know. it is something governor bailey is a knowledge and right now, that the peak in u.k. inflation is going to be later than in other economies. we believe here in the united states that we have already seen the peak year-over-year because of the base effect. you've got a governor here that does not think we have seen the worst of it. this is really problematic as they look to set policy today. tom: when the facts change, governor bailey is going to change. i believe a guy said that a f

jonathan: red sox?: the only reason the red sox aren't the works in the world is because of the beloved detroit. lisa: i wouldn't know. i know it's depressing in the markets so keep your moment of zen going to stop i don't know what else to call it. tom: it's big boy talk. jonathan: you didn't text back over the weekend. tom: i was overwhelmed by mother's day. jonathan: i thought twitter would light up my phone. tom: mother's day was deeply emotional. jonathan: expensive for tk. futures are down 1.8 on the nasdaq. the s&p 500 is down by 1.4%. this is bloomberg ♪ ritika: keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world will stop vladimir putin the celebrating russia's five against nazi germany. he said russia is defending with their fathers, grandfathers and great rent fathers fought for and the ukraine president said the russian army is dying not defending their country but trying to occupy another. the u.s. first lady jill biden made a surprise visit to ukraine and crossed into the western part o

jonathan: you've got friends. kailey: lots of friends. [laughter] jonathan: lots of friends.lara rhame joins us of at have -- of fs investments area this weekend, lara rhame goes back to her true foreign-exchange this weekend. you do what i scream about .47. you can't -- about 24/7. you have to triangulate. how do you triangulate dollar right now? lara: you triangulate versus some of the organic moves going on, versus the majors in europe, where we are just clearly not going to get the growth expectations. i think there is still a lot of expectation that the european central bankers are not going to be able to be as aggressive as they want to. but then you need to triangulate it against other dollar strength. for example, against the renminbi, where there is clearly a strong political element to the fact that the chinese are we getting the yuan as almost an emergency stop cap because their economy is slammed to a halt. they've only gone for percent so far, but i think the question we should all be asking ourselves right now is not will the dollar get stronger, but when will i

jonathan: it is a different perspective. the biggest difference here, he said cycle ending, is it a head fake? or something much worse? lisa: does that have to be cycle ending in order to get the results the fed is going for, which is more inflation? that is the conundrum people are dealing with. jonathan: bloomberg came out with numbers on the s&p 500 on this, when the s&p 500 is down 20%, which defines a bear market for many people, the last 14 times, in only two of those episodes did the american economy not go into a recession in the use -- in those years. futures are up. the nasdaq is up by 1.5%. this is bloomberg. ♪ laura: news from around the world. shares of twitter are in a tailspin, elon musk saying his takeover of the company is on hold until he gets more information about the proportion of fake accounts. fake accounts makeup less than 5% of users, twitter says. elon musk says he is still committed to the deal. the senate was forced to postpone final passage on a $40 billion ukraine aid package after republican se

jonathan: taste like beer.: i remember having a french beer for the first time and it was like, oh. jonathan: he said 4% is good enough for them. can you imagine if they signaled they are ok with 4% inflation? lisa: if the fed brings down inflation to a stable 4%, perhaps that would be enough. it speaks to the idea that perhaps getting back to 2.5% in the near term shouldn't even be on the radar of the fed, they should just be looking for downward trajectory. a radical idea after decades of talking about a 2% inflation target. jonathan: a viewer rights in, tom never ceases to amaze me about his knowledge of pubs. later, we will catch up with bob michele. [indiscernible] stanley blanchflower of dartmouth. scott minerd. tom: we are doing a remote from the embassy. jonathan: from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: keeping you up to date with news from around the world, i'm ritika gupta. let's get to first word news. the fed set to unleash its biggest interest rate hike in more than two decades. policymakers ar

jonathan: futures down 0.7%.his is bloomberg. ♪ at fidelity, your dedicated advisor will help you create a comprehensive wealth plan for your full financial picture. with the right balance of risk and reward. so you can enjoy more of...this. this is the planning effect. another crazy day? so you can enjoy more of...this. of course—you're a cio in 2022. but you're ready. because you've got the next generation in global secure networking from comcast business, with fully integrated security solutions all in one place. so you're covered. on-premise and in the cloud. you can run things the way you want—your team, ours or a mix of both. with the nation's largest ip network. from the most innovative company. bring on today with unbeatable business solutions from comcast business. powering possibilities™. jonathan: live from new york city this morning, good morning. on tv and radio, here's your price action. market now, but off the lows so far. on the nasa 100, down 1%. with some housing data, let's get to mike mckee fo

jonathan: come on.laughter] jonathan: live from new york city, this is "bloomberg surveillance" on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. futures unchanged on the s&p. on the nasdaq 100, down about 0.1%. that is something we would not usually cover. that is a monster downside surprise on empire manufacturing. mike mckee into the studio to cover this one for us. michael: it is bad news, and it does show we are still having problems in the economy. it is not exactly clear whether this is a supply chain problem or a falloff in demand, but the empire number does drop 36 points to -11. the new york fed is saying that new orders dropped significantly and delivery times lengthened, so it does look like we have run into some problems. -11 point 6%. it was 24.6% last month. jonathan: down about a basis point on the 10 year. no big changes in the equity market. if we get a series of numbers like this, what do you thing this could mean or maybe won't mean for the federal reserve

jonathan: this is the story on oil.ny is already cut their share of russian imports to around 12%, down from about 1/3. lisa: that is not the main dependency and they can probably get oil from other players, not just oil. jonathan: from new york city this morning, this is bloomberg surveillance. ♪ xfinity mobile runs on america's most reliable 5g network, but for up to half the price of verizon, so you have more money for more stuff. this phone? fewer groceries. this phone? more groceries! this phone? fewer concert tickets. this phone? more concert tickets. and not just for my shows. get $400 off an eligible samsung device with xfinity mobile. take the savings challenge at xfinitymobile.com/mysavings or visit your xfinity store and talk to our switch squad today. >> the fed is in warp speed in terms of trying to get to neutral and past neutral. >> the fed needs to get to above 3.5%. >> the fear on the fed hiking cycle is something going to break. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa

jonathan: that has been a change as well. we were looking at a one-way road to higher real yields, and then we have backed off because largely the shock has changed. if you think about it, we have gone from an inflation stock to a fed shock, a big pivot, a rate shock, noah growth scare. that third piece is what we have started to price a whole lot more recently. tom: is it the same in london in the city? jonathan: in terms of what, the cautiousness? without a doubt. they are conditioned by what is happening in the u.k. right now. you are always conditioned by your surroundings. in the u.k., high inflation, upside risk to inflation, downside risk to growth. you look across the channel to europe, they are facing recession. i will say this as well for the u.k. and yearly -- and europe. in the u.s., people believe peak inflation is in our past. in the u.k. and europe, they think that number is still in our future. tom: we've got to go to the toxic brew company, dayton, ohio. lisa, you said it, it is a toxic brew. that captures pe

jonathan: it is ugly.omorrow we have a jobs report in the united states of america, and we will catch up with the chief economist of adp next. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ xfinity mobile runs on america's most reliable 5g network, but for up to half the price of verizon so you have more money for more stuff. this phone? fewer groceries. this phone? more groceries! this phone? fewer concert tickets. this phone? more concert tickets. and not just for my shows. switch to xfinity mobile for half the price of verizon. new and existing customers get amazing value with our everyday pricing. switch today. jonathan: live from new york for our audience worldwide on tv and radio, this is bloomberg surveillance. your equity market, -.6% on the s&p. on the nasdaq down .75%. economic data coming out. let's cross over to michael mckee. michael: it is not directly related to tomorrow's jobs report, but the number of people filing for first-time unemployment benefits goes up a significant amount. up to 200,000 from

jon ferro, a better jonathan: jonathan: take this morning. jonathan:jonathan: this morning but not on the wii, seven weeks of losses. on the session up by about 1% and the question i keep hearing us repeatedly, have we seen the capitulation? tom: no. jonathan: we'll capitulation is fed capitulation. it is a systemic event, unappointed rising. that is what is required first. tom: an important reading for the weekend, what is so important is that is linking in the economics for the market performance but even looking at the market, we cannot talk about capitulation with the vix at 28.62, we are miles away. jonathan: people are waiting for something north of 30 approaching 40. this week, people were spooked about the target numbers. because it was surprising but because the market was so surprised by them. this in terms of the reaction, to see stocks down 25% because of that, up of the back of a store we all thought we understood and also thought was increasingly well priced, i think that was a shock for some people to find out that maybe it was

jonathan: one of many.ust compare and contrast some of the fonts in that piece to the thoughts of the president yesterday and likely more of the same this afternoon. tom: 11 minutes away from this important inflation report forget we go to the gentleman who is truly an expert. what does short term papers say about this report? what is the anticipation? >> the anticipation the last couple of days is it will be reasonably benign forget be reached -- benign. maybe we reached peak inflation. we have now priced out just in the last couple of weeks almost three interest rate hikes for the total, so we were at one point pricing for 3.5% and that we are much closer to 3%. it has been a pretty dramatic pullback from the amount of hawkish and is expected by the market. lisa: how much of this is noise and short coverings so people do not squeezed out ahead of this? ira: i think that is certainly part of it, but there is a bit of a change in the idea that there is still somewhat of a fed put. the markets being is becau

jonathan: jim caron? >> i think it is interesting right now because it was a lot easier when we could blame the decline in risky asset prices based on higher interest rates. we could always blame higher interest rates for all the problems. today it is getting a little more difficult. what it is suggesting is the markets are saying the supply shock and the fed's response to inflation is now creating a demand shock. that is weakening growth, growth expectations are coming down and that translates into earnings and earnings growth rates and potentially higher default risks. i would argue and i agree with what frances is saying, the worst is probably still ahead. as we think about deterioration of demand going forward, that is going to hurt fixed income prices probably more in terms of spread and credit riskiness. jonathan: george bory? >> what could be topping out is inflation, at least the right of it and maybe a bit of pause. pause would be good. what you've seen of weeks, fixed income markets starting to

jonathan: two-part question. it sounds like you expect more downside in equity prices, but the second part, if we had that downside selloff, does he carry come of the nature of the selloff change? lisa s: i think that it does because we start to get a lot more defensive. it is why bonds are finally getting a bid here, so i think that defensive trade that unwound the long-duration stable growth stock trade that was really unwinding fiercely last week starts to get a bid. it is what do i want to own if the economy is genuinely slowing. lisa a: so you are basically saying big tech is a bright spot for the next couple of months. lisa s: i want to be really careful because i don't know that i think big tech in all caps is, but i think long-duration assets actively selected are the place to be. so we have begun to add duration. we started that about three or four weeks ago. albeit it was early, and many of our clients who began to head back into bonds have not had a great three or four weeks, but we do think that trade

jonathan: this is important.re you saying an independent central bank cannot do what it is meant to do, because if it does it will not be an independent central bank? aren't we questioning the independence of the central bank anyway? randall: in a democracy, the so-called independent institutions have to be accounted for in some way or another. it is not like the central bank is something that can do whatever it wants to do and is unaccountable. it has to take into account the consequences of its actions, has to be able to explain what it is doing, why it is doing it. if it does that clearly, that it was able to do what it needed to do. it also take into account the political pressures that are there. lisa: just a follow on to what john was saying, talking about former vice chair quarles, talking about why chair powell did not raise rates earlier was because of political pressure, as he had not been reconfirmed. should it have been politically motivated for that not to raise earlier, which will have an effect on

jonathan: live from new york city.m keene at home and coming back tomorrow, kailey leinz is stepping in, with lisa abramowicz and make him a jonathan ferro. for those of you saying be kind, see what happens when i take a day or a week off. mike wilson over at morgan stanley and the team writing this on the equity side of things. "last week was adjusted the bear market was reaching the phase when virtually nothing would work, even defensives." that seems to be exactly what is happening. lisa: it has been a really rough moment because both bonds and stocks have sold often tandem. nothing seems to be working at a time when you've got the dueling ideas of inflation, a very hot labor market, as well as worries about some of the down -- some kind of downturn in the later half of the year. jonathan: let's have that discussion with the chief u.s. financial economist at oxford economics. we love catching up with you. let's get straight to wednesday. what do you expect to hear from chairman powell? >> thanks, jon. happy to be wi

jonathan: his football team won so he is a happy man. julian, your view is that this is the market of stocks, it's not about the index. walk me through your thinking. julian: going back to the rising cost of capital is clearly the combination of yields moving higher and inflation moving out of a 25 year range has change the correlation between stocks and bonds. it is risk on, risk on and later risk off, risk off. interestingly enough of volatility where it is, a correlation has been low. it is no longer an index game and from our point of view there's a whole group of stocks out there who have had their earnings estimates revised higher and still have situations where they've been crushed year-to-date and that's where the attractiveness lies for us. >> these are specific stocks. where do you see the biggest opportunities? julian: semiconductors have been hit very hard in general and actually if you go back to last week there were several which in a season of very poor earnings responses had good earnings responses. the homebuilders is th