at 1:00 p.m., tom keene is really keen on this one. take a look at the yield curve between seven and a 10 year treasuries. it has steepened to the widest since 2014. that speaks to the demand for the shorter-term paper, even by that much. who will come in for those seven years today? tom: the belly of the curve? jonathan: quite interesting isn't it? talking about the belly of the curve. a little bit later at 1:00 p.m. eastern, looking forward to that. gamestop up about 80%. tom: we have the cryptocurrency thing today on bloomberg, which is extremely important. three seconds on gamestop. what are your thoughts on a second squeeze? jonathan: no idea. i have no idea if there will be a change today, if they monetize the move. we are seeing the same way that amc did a couple weeks back. the short position isn't what the short position was. do you want to call this a squeeze? tom: the 30% short interest there was what we have from a terrible 100% plus before. it will be interesting to see with the new short interest is. jonathan: romain will

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro.laughter] 40 seconds in, futures up on the s&p about 1%. we are onto silver. tom: on radio, this looks great. when it snows out, you where the boots -- you wear the boots. jonathan: tom has thigh-high leather boots with a zip on the side. [laughter] that's what he's worn in the snow. tom: those are boots that the farmer war in the movie "babe." the one about the pig from years ago. i thought joe weisenthal was great an hour ago. is silver not the same as gamestop? jonathan: no. tom: it's popping to $30. the basic idea, silver up. the street, including jeff currie, is long. gamestop stock is up in the world hates it. jonathan: for me, the hangover of last week, not a single name. it is not a single commodity. it is about market democratization. it is incredibly ironic that the platforms that actually fueled this movement of market democratization last week have been accused of undermining it. that will be the hangover this week as well. that is what the regulators will want to look at.

cheers from tom keene. tom: we are on the same page.onathan: i think that is the first time i have said that in five years working with you. this is "bloomberg surveillance." ritika: with the first word news, i am ritika gupta. janet yellen is making her case for congress to pass the biden coronavirus stimulus plan. yellen says the u.s. can return to full employment if the package is enacted. without the package, he says it made -- she says it may take until 2025. donald trump second impeachment trial is almost certain to end in acquittal but it will still deliver a public reckoning for his presidency and influence whether his supporters continue to dominate the republican party. the trial begins tomorrow in the senate. u.k. exports to the eu have fallen as much as two thirds fins brexit. that is according to a truckers group that sends -- that says trade is being held up by new red tape and says 75% of trucks from the eu are returning empty because there are no goods to transport. in london brent oil rose above $60 a barrel for the fir

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. equities pushing higher, we are up one third of 1%. chairman powell has a message for president biden, could i have another term please? that's what it sounded like. tom: we have to see. he makes it clear he likes his job. four bodies that need to replace at the fed. you know the president will be very sensitive to his constituency. one thing about powell is -- i just had a thought popped into my head, could you see lawrence summers as the chairman of the fed? jonathan: i think former president barack obama won saw that and got some pushback. tom: let's stop the show on radio and tv, michael mckee last question to professor summers? jonathan: i think it's more likely that michael mckee gets the fed chair than larry summers. i'm sure mr. summers would be very upset about that. yields lower. a break of 1% on two year yields. tom: this is math. there's something about the fear of zero, the fear of negative. 0.10% is a big deal. it was just for a big but -- it was just for a moment. jp mo

keene is going to have bitcoin jewelry. jonathan: let's hope mrs. keene likes that as well. about the volatility of the asset, the volatility potentially of a unit of exchange. this volatility needs to come down. i am trying to understand from your standpoint, what leads to lower volatility? michael: higher prices. let's look forward four years. bitcoin will be much higher. it left much greater depth. and we will head towards the same volatility as gold if the trains are an example. the two factor model in terms of volatility is supply and demand. supply is fixed for bitcoin. everything else is uncertain. i think that is what you have to look forward to. if you want to wait for volatility to go down, great. but it is from a much higher plateau with much more depth. what would trip that up? i don't know what that is at this moment. lisa: spoken like a true bitcoin bull. rebecca patterson also talking about the regulatory framework, the idea that when there is more regulatory certainty, that is when bridgewater will take a more serious look in the crypto asset. what are some o

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. with a little bou so you're a small business, or a big one. you were thriving, but then... oh. ah. okay. plan, pivot. how do you bounce back? you don't, you bounce forward, with serious and reliable internet. powered by the largest gig speed network in america. but is it secure? sure it's secure. and even if the power goes down, your connection doesn't. so how do i do this? you don't do this. we do this, together. bounce forward, with comcast business. jonathan: from new york city, this is bloomberg surveillance. here's the price action. six-day losing streak on the nasdaq. a bounce back here. up 1/10 of 1%. futures up six. the russell doing nicely. we look like this this morning. yields up, curves steeper. your 210 spread gets up to 135. i'm didn't take some days off soon. -- i'm going to take some days off soon. lisa: we all are. jonathan: yields high. if it's a statement of confidence is chairman powell talks about that it's good. it's good for u.s. growth specifically. high bank s

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro.quity futures down about four points on the s&p 500, -0.1%. we are just off of all-time highs on the s&p 500. tom: i'm going to call it a correlated pause. i thought jim caron was brilliant on friday. he's focused on the real yield and the immovable object i see is a -1.06% on the 10 year real yield. that is depressed and driving a greater negative statistic. jonathan: i was catching up with my producer jamie earlier this morning -- tom: you have a producer? how come i don't have a producer? jonathan: he asked, how hot is too hot? that's the question we are trying to ask on this program. how hot is too hot, and how big is too big in washington, d.c.? tom: a little bit of distraction today with the impeachment, but the stimulus conversation drives forward and affects every conversation of the market, including dow 31,210. lisa: how hot is too hot? we have to look back to 2009. people are drawing parallels to that. the jobs recovery was sluggish. a lot of people agree on that. 10:00 a.m.

that means it is me and tom keene. on the s&p, up 0.7%. can we keep this on the rails?om: we've got a busy day. we finally got interest rates higher with the equity markets, but also i think we can state after two hours the squeeze is so over. moments ago, silver and gamestop breaking down. it has been an ugly morning for the squeeze people. jonathan: the glory trades of the past week done. you asked a little bit earlier what it looks like when the short squeeze is over. this is what it looks like when a massive short squeeze is over, if there's no fundamental reason for the squeeze. what did we print last week? what were the dingdong highs of last week? tom: see folks, he's doing that. you need to understand, jon knows i bought 100 shares at $512.13. i've still not covered that trade, jon. i think there's hope. jonathan: brutal for anyone who bought the top last week. you've talked about yields higher, a steeper yield curve. let's talk abthline for me over the last 24 hours.te united states of america who have received a dose of the vaccine than there are covid cases i

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. 7:00 a.m. new york time, 92 way -- 90 minutes away from initial jobless claims in the u.s. tom: the data is interesting. it is a churn today, with equities off a bit. can we say we have taken a pause and moved to higher yields? jonathan: not now. yields are off two basis points. i get what you are saying. tom: what is the problem this morning? lisa: well, you know. [laughter] jonathan: are we taking a break? tom: we are at -- we were at 1.33% an hour ago. jonathan: he's asking what is going on with me. i've got no idea what is going on with him. lisa: we can work it out on the break. jonathan: good morning to you all. equity futures down 15 points, coming in 0.4%. in the bond market, yields higher. we are off the highs of today's session i guess is the point tom is trying to make. tom: thank you. [laughter] jonathan: euro-dollar, $1.2071. an energy crisis in america. lisa: we have seen those prices more than double over the past year. meanwhile, you were talking earlier about this ide

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro.hree hours away from testimony from chairman powell. nasdaq futures down 1.44%. tom: as you mentioned earlier, with a bond yield move, banks are doing well. the s&p does well. dow has green on the screen. moments ago, brown university published an extensive twitter thread, a medical authority has taken the extrapolation of the better news on the vaccination, the better news on the deaths across this nation. jonathan: yields have gone one way, yields have gone higher. think the one question people ask is whether we get any sort of subtle intervention from the federal reserve chairman later this morning. tom: i dazzled kailey leinz this morning and the 5:00 hour with a positive 30 year yield. are we seeing higher yields or a normalization from the really distressed yields we have seen? i am going to go with the optimistic case that we are normalizing. jonathan: you know where lisa is going to go. but i think we should be asking this question. i keep hearing the reflation trade, but this

tom keene once again, it is about the bond market breaking down, yields breaking out. north of 1.30. tom: a lot of good essays outcome a love good research come all about inflation or no inflation, looking at the indicators. you can cut it, jon, both ways. jon: the pace is fast, the -- not inflation. real yields over the last week breaking out. that is the challenge to risk assets. tom: real yields are a moonshot. i look at it a lot this morning, jon, and it is really not a breakout yet, but we are right there, that if it continues, that gets the intention of wall street -- the attention of wall street. lisa: the key question is, how much of this reflation trade is jay powell going to tolerate? how much will the fed take a look at how much yields are rising? signifying that they are going to buy unger term bonds. what is the balance of allowing growth to pick up when not creating financial instability echo jon: let's get a price action this friday morn. good money money. i got through the weekend just up -- let's get the price action this friday morning -- good monday

john -- tom keene, a deepening energy crisis in america. this equity market continues to break out as treasury yields grind higher. jon: we will talk about the -- tom: we will talk about the markets to reset for the back half of the first quarter but lisa abramowicz has lived this and this is about the distances, the loneliness out there. it is not like an east coast storm is it? lisa: no. since you have never experienced -30 degree weather, it is your different -- it is a different kind of cold. you have to use pencils instead of pens. tom: i'm used to -- jon: i'm used to the u.k.. equity markets at all-time highs closing on friday. that continues. tenure eat treasury real -- the 10-year treasury yield approaching a great number in yields. jon: this is the shift and we have -- tom: this is the shift and we have a great set of guests. for me, you have higher yields, but the real yield comes in with a vengeance. we have a much lower negative yield on the real yield, and that shows that inflation dynamic versus what nominal yields are doing.

alongside tom keene and the separable weights, i'm jonathan ferro.ity markets at all-time highs. we have 18 to the s&p, up about half of 1%, approaching 3900. tom, you joked the other day we are on 4000 watch. the bond yields up three basis points. the euro with a little bounce back. rough time for europe last months. euro-dollar up about .2. tom: look at the 10 year yield, on radio and tv, folks, i'm concerned it is a junk condition. jonathan: the most put a question going into payrolls, how does that bond market -- it will be the one thing i go to -- what does the bond market look like after payrolls? how does it respond? i'm not convinced either way. tom: we will continue this dialogue on emerging markets and the effect of what we see in the united states on the recovery and what it means. that means we go to damian sassower. he is more than proficient in the gaming of sports. do you sense and acute interest in the super bowl or is it pandemic affected? damian: with all this focus on gamestop, reddit, people are really missing the fact that if you

i need to send bottles of wine over to tom keene.u expect the vita administration to take a different stance on some of the spirits soul from europe? alexandre: we do hope the relationship between the european union on one side and the u.s. on the other will go in the right direction and will be appeased. obviously, what the entire industry, the wine and spirits industry are calling for, of course, we hope to see the end of trade tariffs on both sides of the atlantic, trade tariffs imposed on some of our whiskey and wine in the u.s. and also some american spirits in europe. hopefully, there will be an agreement one day but it is beyond our control, as you can imagine. tom: alexandre, wonderful to speak to you from new york. what you purvey is vitally needed in the pressures of a pandemic, but it will be a changed industry. how will your industry change coming out of pandemic? alexandre: first of all, with the pandemic has proven is very ng resilience of the spirits industry. we have seen compensation of severe and trade commit disrup

with tom keene, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. a simulcast on bloomberg television, bloomberg radio. an extraordinary market day. we can talk about futures on sterling, but in the yield business, it is yield up, price down. we are beginning to see some price effects. jonathan: it was becoming increasingly difficult to break 1.20 on the 10-year, and then we broke 1.25. yields are higher. financial conditions have stayed loose, and they stay loose this morning. tom: there can never be a bear market in the bond business. apple, 15 days ago, down 4%. that is one of the effects. jonathan: you are much better at bond math than me, but pull up the numbers in austria. that is brutal. tom: 100 years out in austria. price is down 25%, but who cares about that? lisa: my kids are calling me saying, i thought this was supposed be fixed income. to your point earlier about what that means for longer-term bonds and how volatile they can be in terms of total returns. bonds in the u.s. maturing in 15 or more years have lost more than 6% so far this

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. equity futures down 0.75%. yields higher by four basis points. tom: looking at the bloomberg terminal, good morning on radio and television, it is simple. the 10 year yield spikes up. we are not up to the 1.39% highs of the day, but we have gone from under 1.36% will over 1.37% in the matter of a cup of coffee. jonathan: this week, it is going to be the fed speak and how they respond to what we have seen in this market. tom: we are on the same page -- rarely are we on the same page like we are now. it is about the tins 30's curves -- the tens-30's curve, to see if you get a steepening. lisa: if you look at the fives- 30's, it has reached the highest point since 2014. i'm not correcting you, i am just explaining what i am saying. tom: it is like a marriage, explaining. [laughter] lisa: is there something you would like to say, tom? tom: there's nothing i'd like to say. . i'm taking a walk. lisa: this reflation trade is based in the fact that we are having a faster reopening than expect

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro.st 24 hours, the big story is in the bond market. a clean break through 1.25%, and then overnight, through 1.30%. tom: the non-correlation here, just

alongside tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro.isa abramowicz back with us tomorrow. futures up 30 on the s&p, about 0.8%. euro-dollar, a breakdown on the euro. one dollar -- $1.2040, a breakdown of 0.1%. you've got your head around where we are the moment. let's talk about where we are in amc, gamestop, silver, the glory trades of the past week or so. wow, it has been brutal on the upside, brutal the downside squeeze as well. gamestop this morning absolutely plunging, down 40%. tom: i got a log chart of gamestop up, and it is not lognormal. the slope up is as same as the slope down. you could look for a drop here ever larger. jonathan: and if there isn't a strong fundamental reason to keep it up there, gravity is what we are seeing. tom: $134 now. on a log basis, i've got informal support in the 90 level, and also down to the 60 level. washington state and the university of washington are definitive in microbiology. leading the charge academically is deborah fuller. they do terrific work across all of biology and virology as well.

good morning, alongside tom keene and lisa, i am jonathan ferro.look like this, up seven, call it a. we are up .2%. in the bond market, yields are higher by a single basis point. 1.3059, and the fx market, the dollar is weak. tom keene, cable, back at work. tom: we have to pause, cable at 1.40, 2018. the last time cable was at 1.480 , jon ferro was working at a retail place and i was a -- i was at a hotel bar. jonathan: you are so inebriated you forget that we were a house. it was a massive turnaround with the vaccine rollout in the u.k. has surprised people to such a degree that they are willing to look through a resales print early this morning. tom: and you are standing across all of our asset classes. let us look at the enthusiasm in washington as well. emily wilkins joins us as well. it is about the president, pfizer, and vaccine success or not. does the president visit pfizer with a message of success or let us get going? emily: so far, the vaccine rollout we have seen is meeting all of the requirements that biden put forward. if you remember

jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and tom keene.t is a simulcast on bloomberg radio, on bloomberg television. the snow filled fields of central park. good morning in boston, 106.1, 99.1 in washington. it is like winter out there, and with it is a raging battle of swings of inflation. . it is the theme right now. jonathan: i was really wondering where you were going with this. [laughter] i agree with you, that is the debate right now. we see that playing out in the bond market. steve mager of hsbc has pushed back, saying people are starting to price the risk of inflation. don't confuse people pricing and the risk for inflation versus that risk materializing. tom: i was just trying to get poetic here, and what is so important when we look at the inflation battle and the worry out there, futures up 11, dow futures up 63, i'm sorry, lisa. it is the lisa of our discontent. there's a lot of worries out there. jonathan: yes, a ton of things to worry about, but the equity market is still doing well, near all-time highs. anyone who wants to

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro.n the last 24 hours, the big story is in the bond market. a clean break through 1.25%, and then overnight, through 1.30%. tom: the non-correlation here, just an odd data check right now. what i would say, coming up next, our most important conversation of the week on the oddness of the vix. jonathan: we do -- we need to do a clinic on volatility. in the bond market, what is important is a treasury market selloff. lisa: you are seeing this even more in the u.s., but as you said, around the world, this idea of everybody piling in, getting back to normal. we haven't emphasized this enough, the idea that we are seeing the cases decline substantially across the united states. jonathan: equity futures pulling back just a little bit on the s&p 500, down two points, negative not even 0.1%. euro-dollar, $1.2062, off by 0.3%. down to $1.29 on the u.s. -- down to 1.29% on the u.s. 10 year. got to get used to that. i keep thinking, is that euro-dollar? it's not, it is u.s. 10 year. tom: i think it

tehran is very keen to see _ sanctions lifted? tehran is very keen to see those _ sanctions lifted?sanctions - sanctions lifted? tehran is very . keen to see those sanctions lifted. it is bargaining a great deal now. some people have suggested actually that it some people have suggested actually thatitis some people have suggested actually that it is putting the chances of getting the deal back together at risk and there are those sceptics who say the deal should never been keptin who say the deal should never been kept in the first place but certainly iran very much wants to see those sanctions go and i think question is now how the powers, whether they can manage to negotiate something that allows both sides to save face, if you like, whether they can come to that agreement and keep the nuclear deal going and get those sanctions removed, because the iranian nuclear deal in the first place was incredibly intense inspections of nuclear sites in return for sanctions. indie inspections of nuclear sites in return for sanctions.- inspections of nuclear sites in return for sanctions. we

but she was keen for us to see her in action.ene of a suspected murder in february 2020. the family of the victim felt that the police had failed to adequately investigate the case. so they turned to jane. so according to you, maybe he was tortured or something. did you see some blood around here or maybe... no blood. no blood, nothing. did he have any bruises all over the face, the hands... no, no. the body had been found in the trees, reportedly with signs of mutilation. jane's team swept the crime scene for any evidence they could find. what is this? could it have been food? yeah, maybe. to the naked eye, actually it looks like blood but we can take it for some checking. we can take it to analysis. there is a difference between blood and tomato sauce or chilli. despite her unconventional methods, jane noticed crucial details that the police report appeared to have missed. the details must remain secret, but after weeks of investigation, jane says she has solved this case, finally bringing closure to the victim's grieving famil

david: a wonderful tom keene question.ting to think of it this way because yes, the ceo has stumbled repeatedly. i saw him last week on cnn with chris cuomo and i was astonished at how clumsy he was and then quite quickly after that interview was over seemed to have blatantly lied in the interview and plundered in other ways. the oddity is here is robinhood, a company established in order to a power the ordinary person conceptually and democratize investment. but the implication of that is by necessity, with more power to the ordinary people, you will have to have some more transparency. and yet another example of a silicon valley colossus that was not transparent even as it seems to be committed to the very notion of a new societal shift. i would analogize it with facebook. tom: you know these players. the big boys, and do this. do you just assume the innovation incident caught -- in silicon valley gets co-opted by either direct wall street or indirect wall street in those office buildings outside the expressway? david: i

so i got in touch with ry webb, a keen ultra runner and professional running coach.d it usually does at some point. it's how you plan for those inevitable things that will go wrong. you know, simple things like blisters, sickness, dehydration, losing a bit of kit, a glove, have you got spare gloves? getting lost out there, especially as it will be dark most of it. it's good that reece is running every day, just make sure that it's specific to the race he's training for — so ideally he needs to be putting in a hill session a week. when he finishes, he's on the start line, he's got as much chance as anyone else there, it'll be a mental battle at the end of the day. he's not used to 15—plus hours of nonstop running, hiking, cold, wet, wind. hopefully he doesn't let the demons into his head and he can keep pushing through those tough points and see the finish line. right, about to run this marathon. let's make it interesting to do this marathon. i got the water, i got the gels in here. i'm very, very interested to see when my body starts to break down. sojim and the bbc

- breathe. jane has a tae kwon do certificate and was keen to i certificate and was keen to show men you make the busted fall down. so that is how you do it. . , ., , do it. have you been in situations _ do it. have you been in situations where i do it. have you been in situations where you i do it. have you been in i situations where you have had to defend people? i situations where you have had to defend people?— to defend people? i love 'ustice to defend people? i love justice and _ to defend people? i love justice and it _ to defend people? i love justice and it is - to defend people? i love justice and it is in i to defend people? i love justice and it is in my i to defend people? i love i justice and it is in my blood system. fighting forjustice is in my blood system. trio. system. fighting for 'ustice is in my blood system.i system. fighting for 'ustice is in my blood system. no, no, no, hard! the — in my blood system. no, no, no, hard! the rest _ in my blood system. no, no, no, hard! the rest of the _ in my blood system. no, no, no, hard! the rest of the training i hard! the

tom keene joins me in new york.oday -- not only looking at bonds but also what is going on in europe. the big story for today, besides the 30-year spread, is exactly what is going on with junk bonds in the u.s. below 4%, i think for the first time ever. this is bloomberg. ♪ francine: bitcoin surges to a record after tesla's bet on the cryptocurrency. mike novogratz sees the price doubling to $100,000 by year end. the global equity rally takes a breather as investors mull stimulus prospects and the impact of rising inflation expectations. and donald trump's second impeachment trial starts in the senate today. he faces a charge of inciting the january 6 insurrection on the capitol. conviction is low. good morning and welcome to "bloomberg surveillance." i'm francine lacqua in london, tom keene in new york. i know we look at politics, we look at what is happening with the european central bank, but i would suggest that we go markets to markets today. looking at the u.s. junk bond yield, they capture the imagination edi

with tom keene, and lisa abramo

they will keep a close eye on the data but the prime minister was keen to stress a cautious note he alsoesin cautious note he also pointed to the advances in science. the vaccine programme but also treatments in testing and even suggesting down the line that could be tests to get into things like nightclubs or theatres. so even when things start to open up again we could live with the effects of this virus for some time. the united kingdom has more than met the vaccines target set six weeks ago — and the prime minister said today that if supplies held up — vaccinations would be offered to everyone in the top nine priority groups by the end of april, including those aged over 65 and younger people with underlying health conditions. but there's concern in some groups — people with asthma or those with learning difficulties for example — that they weren't included in the first phase. our health editor hugh pym has more details. thank you very much, good morning. visiting a vaccination centre today, the prime minister was keen to praise all those involved in getting more than 15 million peop

i think there is a keen awareness. about the oxford jab.re is a keen awareness in government about the subtlety around communication around this. as fergus was reflecting on, we are hearing about this small trial affecting a particular cohort of people. the government keen to emphasise that they believe in the two vaccines that are being used in the uk and that are being used in the uk and that crucially they have a really important role in minimising serious disease and death. i think there is an awareness in government that inevitably sometimes there are easy headlines out there. the subtlety underneath is what we should look at in terms of, as the test been peer reviewed, how many people have been tested, and which segments of the population have been looked at in these particular trials? the government emphasising people should government emphasising people should go ahead and get a vaccine when they are invited to get one. i have just come off the phone for the daily briefing for westminster reporters from downing street and they are s

borisjohnson clearly keen to depress any expectations of a quick move out of lockdown.t's right, fiona. with the positive news about the vaccine programme, the obvious question is what does that mean for the restrictions we have all been living under? and the prime minister is expected to set out more detail next monday, including the dates which will be the point that marked the earliest that various sectors can open. but the government is keen to stress that nothing is definitive, everything will be driven by the data. they are still waiting on more information about the effectiveness of the vaccine which will help shape the decisions they take in coming days, and until then, they warn, everything is speculation, nothing yet is decided. it seems a while since school playgrounds were noisy... ..since these empty pubs were bustling. next week, we'll find out when and how some of this might start to return. for so many families, it's been a long wait. missing work, missing just hugging people, really. driving instructor harvey's business has been parked. his daughter gra

keene wants me to explain why i bought shares of gamestop.are not going to show it, but long gamestop. there are a lot of losses. jonathon: there is. thank you. coming up, jason farley. lisa: some people gained money and some people lost money. they are always coming. jonathon: the s&p 500 is down .4% and this is bloomberg. ♪ >> with the first word news, the crisis that knocked out power to texas is now in its fourth day. lack outs in the houston area may last a couple more days while residents are shivering through subfreezing temperatures. takes is has taken the extraordinary first step of restricting national -- natural gas sales across state lines. bloomberg has learned that the biden administration is seeking taiwan's help in resolving a semiconductor shortage. it has led to some factories cutting production. taiwan today's dutch taiwan is the largest manufacturing industry in the world. the coronavirus had a huge impact on life expectancy which fell by the most since world war ii. life expectancy dropped to 77.8. governments of two stat

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro.you are the only person i've met in new york who has never made it to brooklyn, still. tom: i haven't made it below 59th street. lisa: thigh-high boots. jonathan: i'll go with you. tom: i'm taking the l train. jonathan: not in the subway. we are going to walk this. tom: are we? jonathan: from new york, this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. president biden is drawing a line in the sand on his coronavirus stimulus proposal. he told house democrats he will not back off his plan to send $1400 checks to millions of americans. the president says he's opening to tightening the eligibility for the payments. republicans have suggested that the checks be smaller and that fewer people get them. this will be janet yellen's first public effort to address the turmoil involving gamestop shares at broker-dealer robinhood. the treasury secretary meets today with federal regulators. the sec has already said it is seeking to identify potential misconduct. it will also loo

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. a big morning. coming in about one hour and 12 minutes time. chairman powell speaking at 2:00 p.m. eastern. equities heading back to all-time highs. in the bond market, yields with a mild, mild lift, up not even a basis point, 1.1 637. euro-dollar goes nowhere -- one .2 119. lisa: inflation data -- 1.2119. tom: now to washington, kevin cirilli joins us. i want to go to senator brown in casper, indiana, way down south, where the indiana basketball hall of fame is, which is the only thing that matters. he is from my different place than a lot of the democratic power. jordan we know from ohio. then you have the position from the louisiana upset at the lawyers yesterday. how does president trump react and coalesce those three different republican voices forward? kevin: i think it is less about what former president trump thinks in terms of where the party is and more about what leader o'connell thinks. i think to your point here, that was a brilliant lead in with the thought string we shared because it

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. where did january go? well, it is a snowstorm in washington. drive careful, on bloomberg radio. it could be an inch here, 12 inches there. much more scheduled as well. on bloomberg television across this nation and worldwide, february upon us. it was uneventful january, to say the least. jonathan: i heard someone choke over the weekend that we were going into month 14 of 2020, and that is what it feels like. we need to talk about it. huge bull case for 2021. how many cracks senate now? tom: spx beckoning 3800. everybody nuance sing and adjusting their bull market. the underpinning to me is a pretty good earnings and revenue season that nobody is talking about. jonathan: there's a belief we bounce back in the second half. that's been driving things since december. i sent many people still hold that belief, that hope that that is the story, and that is why they are willing to look through the negative payrolls report last month and perhaps a really soft when

i am very keen for it to be _ will be published?, i. for it to be published as soon as ossible. . , ., ., possible. that is what you said to the pac three — possible. that is what you said to the pac three weeks _ possible. that is what you said to the pac three weeks ago. - possible. that is what you said to | the pac three weeks ago. indeed. just to the pac three weeks ago. indeed. just to answer— the pac three weeks ago. indeed. just to answer your _ the pac three weeks ago. indeed. just to answer your first _ the pac three weeks ago. indeed. just to answer your first question | just to answer your first question directly, how do you know that testing turnaround times and our contact tracing process has improved over the last three months, we know that because we publish it every week. so, lastly, as i say, 95% of people receive their test results the next day. riff people receive their test results the next day-— people receive their test results thenextda. , . the next day. of people appearing in erson. it the next day. of peop

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro.equity markets shaping up as follows. we count you down to jobless claims in america, 15 minutes away. yields are higher, up seven basis points on the u.s. 10 year. we add a little more weight to the crude price, $63.43. in the fx market, euro-dollar up about 0.5%. we heard the verbal intervention. the ecb pushing back. in the equity market, down 17, off by about 0.4%. the bigger movies in the nasdaq, and big tech. tom: $67.07 on brent crude. we are yet to frame out $70 a barrel, let alone $80. again, the tech story a little bit behind, but i really want to emphasize, s&p 500 in correction mode, down 0.25% from record highs. devastating as well. right now, this is timely on the global impact of the vaccine. can america prosper out of pandemic if the rest of the world is not? david now passed joins us, the world bank president. wonderful to have you with us. your world bank wants a shared prosperity. i want you to explain why we need the impoverished world to get beyond the vaccine, to

rishi sunak is very keen to get the _ understand rishi sunak is very keen to get the economy open againr. _ have huge sympathy for that. however, again, if you look at the lessons _ however, again, if you look at the lessons that we have learned, this stop and _ lessons that we have learned, this stop and starting an opening things up stop and starting an opening things up a wee _ stop and starting an opening things up a wee bit thinking it is going to help business, it doesn't help businesses. the cases go up again. and then _ businesses. the cases go up again. and then we — businesses. the cases go up again. and then we have to going to the repetitive — and then we have to going to the repetitive cycles of lockdown, which is very— repetitive cycles of lockdown, which is very disruptive. if there is one lesson— is very disruptive. if there is one lesson i— is very disruptive. if there is one lesson i think the chancellor should learn _ lesson i think the chancellor should learn it— lesson i think the chancellor should learn it right now, it is that we have _ learn it right now, it is t

tom keene is out of the building today. we start with the big issue this morning. lisa, it is in the bond market for the last 24 hours, for that matter, the last week. your high yesterday, 1.61. jonathan: is this reflation expectation? no. i'm sorry. they're the lowest in the five to 10 years going back to the end of last year. what is driving this move? jonathan: real yields. we brought forward some rate hikes. we started to challenge the fed to the front end but we did not have the inflation expectation. it seems every time we see higher yields, people jump to the conclusion it is inflation. lisa: the question is how the fed is going to respond. it is convenient that tom keene is out today. losing all his money. here we are. jonathan: i thought we might actually get some work today and that is why he stepped out of the building. let's get some work done. good morning. your equity market ounces back with the smallest move and then we tried lower. we are down on the s&p. for the week, down about 2%. from the bond market, 161 for the high yesterday. all the way back

we understandably keen to build on the rouress. ~ .. understandably keen to build on the rouress. ~ .homes for rough sleepers i progress. we are bringing forward - 6000 homes for rough sleepers backed by over £a00 million of funding over the course of this parliament. this is the largest investment and accommodation of this kind and i'm proud that it will lead leave a national legacy of support for those helped by everyone in.— helped by everyone in. because of covid we've _ helped by everyone in. because of covid we've got — helped by everyone in. because of covid we've got these _ helped by everyone in. because of covid we've got these new - helped by everyone in. because of covid we've got these new hotels | helped by everyone in. because of. covid we've got these new hotels now that i've _ covid we've got these new hotels now that i've been setup. i don't know if you've _ that i've been setup. i don't know if you've heard about them? the government's — if you've heard about them? tie: government's everyone in scheme has helped accommodate 33,000 people including rough sleepers but

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro.shington, the government putting together a one point $9 trillion fiscal plan, and many prominent economists on the left asking, is it too big? we asked those questions to national economic council director brian deese in our exclusive interview. brian: we sized this based on the need we see to get shots into arms, get schools reopened, and to give relief to families and businesses. as we look at this, we look at the estimates out there of not only output gap, but also the amount of pain we see in the labor market. 10 million people out of work still in this economy. we think this is appropriately sized, and frankly, the right kind of economic prescription to what is a unique and really precarious moment. jonathan: let's start with where the questions are coming from. we are talking about larry summers, the former treasury secretary, and the former head of the imf, not exactly republican cheerleaders, are the biggest questions are questioning where the opposition is coming from. brian:

i'm francine lacqua, tom keene with the day off.ouple of seconds, we had breaking news out of the u.s. this has to do with the price of oil and the price of natural gas and that arctic snap in the u.s.. just moments ago, we heard that the cold weather put

i do not know if tom keene has a chart that goes back to 1709.ould point to the fact that if you look at what the economy did in the fourth quarter -- it is not bad. we are back to talk about the u.k.. there is a bad figure, 9.9% contraction, but the fourth quarter when the economy was open was not that bad. you expect a huge bounce back and what does that mean for the u.k. market? david: it is likely we will get a contraction in this quarter. whatever -- while the fourth quarter was better-than-expected i think it is likely the u.k. economy contracted in the first quarter of this year. thereafter i think we will get a strong recovery in u.k.. it will still lag. clearly the united states recovery but even relative to larger parts of europe. there is light at the end of the tunnel. the u.k. is benefiting and will benefit from the successful vaccine rollout, and then the border reopening. in terms of sterling, in terms of u.k. assets more generally, i think there is further upside. the u.k. is a devalued market. a shift in rotation from investors g

i think tom keene is a big fan. we need to focus on the future of advertising.year's super bowl advertisements went heavy on the stage, largely avoiding the issues of today in favor of movies, songs, and characters. $5.5 million for each 32nd tv spot with cbs saying it virtually sold out. how much is it shipping out for the advertising industry? joining us is martin sorrels, the founder of wpp. thank you for joining us. when you look at the super bowl, they were nostalgic but also a bit punchy when it came to politics, certainly when you have the four season landscaping and things like that. how has advertising changed in the pandemic? martin: it has certainly become more responsible, more purpose driven. some would say some of it is greenwashing or virtue signaling come as they say, but basically it has become it has -- it has become relevant to the times. our industry has traditionally said in times of crisis spend, spend, spend, which is the wrong strategy. we went into the pandemic you're so ago when companies did not have distribution. you saw -- a year or

visiting a vaccination centre today, the prime minister was keen to praise all those involved in gettingthan 15 million people in the uk inoculated with a first dose. if you look at what's happened in the last few weeks, it's been an unbelievable effort by the nhs and the doctors and nurses, the gp surgeries, the hospitals. of course, the army's been fantastic, the pharmacists have done a greatjob. warehouse workers and logistics experts helped get the vaccines to hospitals, doctors�* surgeries and other hubs. this company's drivers covered more than 200,000 miles in two months, delivering more than five million vaccines in england. people aged 70 and over, nhs and care staff and residents, and those who are clinically extremely vulnerable were in the first target groups. on friday, the welsh government was the first in the uk to report that everyone in the top four priority groups had been offered a first dose of the vaccine. since then, ministers in england and scotland have also confirmed that target has been hit. in northern ireland, officials say everyone in those groups will have b

but she was keen for us to see her in action.ene of a suspected murder in february 2020. the family of the victim felt that the police had failed to adequately investigate the case. so they turned to jane. so according to you, maybe he was tortured or something. did you see some blood around here or maybe... no blood. no blood, nothing. did he have any bruises all over the face, the hands... no, no. the body had been found in the trees, reportedly with signs of mutilation. jane's team swept the crime scene for any evidence they could find. what is this? could it have been food? yeah, maybe. to the naked eye, actually it looks like blood but we can take it for some checking. we can take it to analysis. there is a difference between blood and tomato sauce or chilli. despite her unconventional methods, jane noticed crucial details that the police report appeared to have missed. the details must remain secret, but after weeks of investigation, jane says she has solved this case, finally bringing closure to the victim's grieving famil

i'm francine lacqua in london, tom keene in new york. i know we look at politics, we look at what is happening with the european central bank, but i would suggest that we go markets to markets today. looking at the u.s. junk bond yield, they capture the imagination edition -- the imagination of a lot of the markets today. you wonder how much more risk with -- how much more risk people are willing to take on. tom: a continuation of 2020 come as you say, the bloomberg index under 4%. the bitcoin surge is part of the game, but the markets show that effect of a reflation from a trillion dollar stimulus, and frankly, a global stimulus. francine: a global stimulus. it is clear that if you look at the amount of stimulus in europe versus the u.s., the u.s. will feel a lot of the reflation trade before anyone else. let's get to first word news in new york city with ritika gupta. ritika: there has never been a day like this in the senate. donald trump faces an unprecedented second impeachment trial beginning today, starting with the debate on whet

i am francine lacqua and london, tom keene in new york. germany probably delaying their reopening because cases are not quite where the german chancellor want them to be, but if you look at hong kong, they are opening sports venues. it goes back to the inflation debate. do we have stimulus strong enough to actually put the economy on the skyrocket, or do we worry about cumbersome inflation? tom: equities higher today, futures up 13 says it all. i do take your point, as every nation and indeed every city for itself come on the pandemic. i would suggest in america, the news is generally very good. francine: i am looking at platinum today. my data check, tom, something i think i have not done -- tom: it is close to valentine's day. i can understand why you are looking at platinum. ritika: the senate has clear the way for arguments to begin on whether donald trump incited a mob to attack the u.s. capitol. lawmakers voted 56-54 that trump's impeachment trial is constitutional. trump's lawyers argued that it was politically motivated and not a r

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. futures with a lift as tom keene says, up 16. yields with a lift, up one basis point. let's call it 31. the fx market, euro-dollar up to .4%. tom: i go back to the tea leaves, one is the swiss 20 year bond. it is showing enthusiasm from a negative to an ever more positive statistic over the last three days. it is good to speak to any of our busy politicians in washington. to do it two days in a row is a rare treat. from arkansas, french hill. it is your fault, arkansas has the snowiest february ever, like back to when the hill family came over the border in 1812. what is the snow like in arkansas and what will you do to fix it? rep. hill: it is the responsibility of the politicians in washington. we are at 17 inches in central arkansas. our highways are clear what our neighborhoods are piled up. east coast style snow. i have been shoveling and doing the best i can. tom: republicans shovel, democrats call in the snow plow. we saw the gamestop hearings yesterday. the washington post thi